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Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Fortnightly results from Newspoll and Morgan both record shifts to the Coalition, in the former case giving them the lead for the first time in over three months.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition in the lead for the first time since late November, their lead of 51-49 comparing with Labor’s 52-48 lead in the poll of a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up three), 34% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down two). More to follow. UPDATE: Tony Abbott’s net approval improves slightly with approval steady on 40% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 31% and down one to 42%. There is also a less decisive result on preferred prime minister, with Abbott down two to 41% and Shorten down three to 33%. The Australian’s report here.

Morgan had its fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll out today, encompassing 2869 respondents over the past two weekends. It too has Labor losing ground on the previous poll, down from 54-46 ahead on respondent-allocated preferences to 51.5-48.5 (and on previous election preferences, 53.5-46.5 to 52-48), from primary votes of 34.5% for Labor (down four), 38.5% for the Coalition (up half a point), 12% for the Greens (up one point) and 5% for Palmer United (up half).

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average records very little change, with Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for Palmer United, the only change there being a one point drop for Labor. Also featured are the monthly leaders ratings, which have Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 47%, Bill Shorten up two to 32% and down one to 38%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister up from 39-33 to 42-32. Other questions find 25% support for the privatisation of Medibank Private and 46% opposition, 61% expecting it would cause health insurance fees to increase against just 3% who think they would decrease, and 25% approving of the sale of government assets to fund new infrastructure against 58% disapproving. A semi-regular question on climate change finds 56% thinking it caused by human activity, up five on January, with 34% favouring the more skeptical response, down five.

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  • 101
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    @CC/100

    No you did not, you provided me a list of ABS stats.

    Total Employment numbers is useless as a power point presentation.

  • 102
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    CC

    Dont know what the job market is like in WA, but here in Melbourne town, the situation is not good.

    My brother and my brother in law are in the construction industry. They have been out of work for months. My cousin is an Accountant, and has been out of work for months. My son’s several close friends who are qualified tradies and are out of work. That is just people I know

  • 103
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    Past Releases i mean :)

  • 104
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:29 am | Permalink

    I can see why the Napthine govt is not travelling well in the state of vic

  • 105
    Raaraa
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:30 am | Permalink

    @65, Sohar,

    Ah, the Russian Internet Brigade…

  • 106
    fredex
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:35 am | Permalink

    compact

    your point was irrelevant – do you have any real world examples of what you are trying to say?

    Well you saying it is irrelevant doesn’t make it so – after all it was your argument wasn’t it?
    Goes round in circles doesn’t it?

    And yep I do have a relevant example.
    Me.
    Once upon a time I made some public comments and my employer, a government dept., tried to sack me for them, critical of government policy you see.
    But they couldn’t – because as a citizen and all that I have a right to express an opinion, particularly if its factual and all that and not made up like those of a certain journalist or commentator whatever he is, although apparently nowadays if it’s a bigoted one [which mine wasn't] its OK .
    Rules change apparently depending on who is speaking and who has power – which is what I showed you in #76.

    And that was my point when I noted that of the Price who clearly understands the concept of free speech – it can’t be disowned by a government – like this one is doing and just like it has done in the past – want a book title that describes a vast and successful attempt to do exactly that in Australia only a few years ago – well about 7 years going back from that?
    Its an interesting read.

    Just a side note.
    Why is that right wingers have the reputation of being all in favour of ‘free speech’ and all that but when push comes to shove its a right wing government in this instance trying to obliterate same?

  • 107
    MTBW
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    Vic

    And we are going to have to get used to more unemployment.

    Companies are being allowed to do exactly what they please for their own benefit and profits.

    BP is closing down in Queensland add that to all the others who have already done so and we are still letting major organisations bring in people from overseas on 457 visas go figure!

  • 108
    Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    The increase in job ads is good news. They are a leading indicator. They were going down for a long time.

    To keep up with population growth (about a million every 3 years), we need 200,000 new jobs per annum (about 18,000 per month). Conventional wisdom is that we need economic growth of about 3% per annum (about double the rate of growth of the workforce) to keep unemployment from increading.

    So to make a dent in the unemployment rate, we need significantly more than the promised 1,000,000 new jobs over 5 years and economic growth significantly above its long term average of around 3 to 3.5%. It’s a big ask.

  • 109
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    Mtbw

    With respect to the 457 visas, my cousin who is the accountant advised me that accountancy jobs are being taken by mainly those coming from Ireland on 457. Meanwhile, there is a glut of Australian accountants out of work.
    My OH and his brother has been running a small business for a very long time. We have reinvented ourselves many times in order to continue to make a worthwhile living. These past six months have been horrendous. We are now re evaluating our options

  • 110
    Tricot
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:42 am | Permalink

    The political cycle is on the verge of rolling away from the conservatives over the next five years.

    *NT government on the brink of collapsing. Not that this small jurisdiction means much, but in terms of the joy with which the Tories had the meme of “bad Labor brand” it all helps.

    *Victoria – on current polling will be lost to the LNP in one term.

    *High water mark for Queensland conservatives was a long time ago, and while Labor may not get to drive the bus – just a bit too much fat to carve away on the conservative side – the bus for Labor will be a lot, lot bigger than the mini van Labor is at the moment. In any event a lot of LNP blood is likely to be on the floor.

    *SA – touch an go, but this is the fourth term for Labor there and never been done before.

    *WA – Tougher for Labor but by the time the Abbott has finished wrecking things, and the LNP brand is starting to smell, anything is possible. Odds are Barnett will not be leading – and the fact that the election ads from May last year are being trotted out by the Liberals is a touch of desperation.

    *Tasmania is lost to Labor for awhile I would think, but then with all the wheels falling off elsewhere for the conservative who can tell?

    And Federally… a 5.5% decline in the Liberal vote in WA while the National vote almost disappeared. While great play has been made of Labor’s low vote (I suspect a lot to do with the poor turnout in general) the Liberal vote in the Senate is the lowest in a generation.

    There is no reason, given Abbott’s poor showing and continued distaste in the mouth of the majority of the electorate for him, that he could be just a one-termer. The ultimate irony.

    I see two or three caveats. One is voter apathy which will impinge upon Labor more so than the conservative. Second is the state of the economy. If good luck goes Abbott’s way he stands to benefit, but if the wheels fall off, he will be no Kevin Rudd as economics is not his bag. Thirdly, is the impact of Palmer and his merry band who might just suck the fag end of the conservative vote dry.

    He is threatening to go after Newman in Queensland and this might really put the cat among the pigeons.

    We are witnessing one of the most unpopular first term governments for some time led by one of the most negative leaders the country has seen in decades.

    The whole of Oz thereby suffers the myth of living in a Conservative Paradise.

  • 111
    BH
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:42 am | Permalink

    http://qz.com/196200/toyota-is-becoming-more-efficient-by-replacing-robots-with-humans/

    Love this story. Who’d have thunk that workers could be more efficient than robots :-}

  • 112
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:42 am | Permalink

    @Steve/108

    It is still, well below than needed.

  • 113
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:43 am | Permalink

    @BH/111

    Well, Robots are made and programmed by humans, Robots cannot make themselves yet :P

  • 114
    Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    Re free speech: publlic servants are required to impartially serve the Government of the day to the best of their abilities. If they feel unable to do that, they should resign. And like other employees, public servants are bound by confidentiality, so they are not allowed to leak or use internal documents, for example. And of course, they are obliged to be at work during the hours required.

    But none of this abrogates their right to free speech or political participation.

  • 115
    sohar
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:47 am | Permalink

    Raaraa,
    Putin is obviously better organised that Obama and Cameron, so should have no trouble accounting for them.

  • 116
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    victoria – there were unemployed during the boom years, too.

    Zoidy said no jobs had been created – which is clearly wrong.

  • 117
    Gary
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    CC is on Menzies House duty I see.

  • 118
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:55 am | Permalink

    The government is bragging about its shiny new free trade deal with Japan by suggesting the price of the average Japanese car will be $1500 cheaper.

    They’re wrong.

    Either those within the government spruiking the $1500 figure don’t understand how the current 5 per cent tariff on imported vehicles is applied (highly unlikely) or they don’t understand the economics of the car industry (possible, but still unlikely). Or they could simply have been going for political points (highly likely).

    Explanation follows…
    http://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/japanese-cars-for-1500-less-dont-bet-on-it-20140408-369vb.html

  • 119
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:56 am | Permalink

    Sydney: A final unexplained signal emitted by the missing Malaysia Airlines plane was tracked to the same point in the Indian Ocean at which authorities believe they have found the jet, it can be revealed.

    It is thought that this final "half-handshake" - or satellite contact - could have been the moment at which the plane ran out of fuel and plunged into the ocean.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-malaysia-airlines-search-site-matches-final-contact-point-calculated-two-weeks-ago-20140408-zqs1v.html#ixzz2yFvOiUW9

  • 120
    fredex
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:57 am | Permalink

    for the period since Abbott came to power. Total employment is up.

    No its not.

    I’ll let the ABS explain why.

    The incoming rotation group for February 2014 had a higher proportion of employed persons and persons in the labour force (i.e. less persons not in the labour force) than the sample it replaced. This incoming rotation group contributed, in original terms, 37% of the increase in total employment and 29% of the decrease in persons not in the labour force in February 2014. The trend estimates provide a better measure of the underlying level and direction of the series especially when there are significant rotation group effects.

    In fact unemployment has reached 6% for the first time since Abbott was a minister in the Howard government.

    And the headline for The Adviser in January was “Job vacancies hit 8 year low” [you can google it]

    New figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show job vacancies hit an eight-year low in the November quarter

  • 121
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:57 am | Permalink

    CC:

    Zoidy said no jobs had been created – which is clearly wrong.

    Yes, but…

    (1) Are jobs being created at a higher rate than they are being lost?

    (2) Is employment growth keeping pace with population growth?

  • 122
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:57 am | Permalink

    @cranky/116

    Do you actually read people’s posts, or just selectively read?

  • 123
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:57 am | Permalink

    So why didn’t they search in that area first? Too many conspiracy theories distracted them??

  • 124
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:58 am | Permalink

    fredex – I don’t know the specifics of your case. Banerji v Bowles is the latest to set precedent.

  • 125
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 11:59 am | Permalink

    If for every job being created (such as a new Coles supermarket opening) two jobs are lost (such as when a manufacturer shuts down) then unemployment goes up.

    I mean, you do understand that don’t you Compact Crank?

  • 126
    BH
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

    While great play has been made of Labor’s low vote (I suspect a lot to do with the poor turnout in general) the Liberal vote in the Senate is the lowest in a generation.

    Tricot I heard Richo saying on Sunday that Labor suffers badly when the turnout is poor.

    It’s the reason why I don’t want voluntary voting brought in. For some reason conservatives will always turn out for the vote without much encouragement but Labor voters need a big shove. Do they think they’re vote won’t make any difference?

  • 127
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

    Nice to see Tricot @110 is a Glass-half-full sorta person.

  • 128
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

    This is such regressive thinking by the coalition.

    Victoria's higher-education sector has slumped deeply into the red, with the financial watchdog revealing half of the state's TAFEs are running at a loss after savage government funding cuts.

    A leaked assessment by the Victorian Auditor-General's Office has found seven out of 14 public TAFEs are in deficit, including two in doubt ''as a going concern''.
    The finding comes at an awkward time for the Napthine government, which is desperate to avoid an electoral backlash in rural and regional Victoria less than eight months from the state election.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/tafe-funding-in-crisis-20140407-3696n.html#ixzz2yFwSjc9I

  • 129
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:03 pm | Permalink

    So why didn’t they search in that area first? Too many conspiracy theories distracted them??

    Lizzie, these conspiracy theorists are going to have a hard time explaining how the plane got from Diego Garcia to the bottom of the Indian Ocean.

    At one level, these conspiracy theories are amusing. At another level, they’re just plain offensive. It reminds me of all the ‘CIA/inside job’ conspiracies that emerged regarding the twin towers after 9/11. As if the tragedy wasn’t bad enough, we have conspiracy theorists circling like vultures around the tragedy.

  • 130
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

    @lizzie/128

    Sell the TAFE’s for cheap?

  • 131
    BH
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

    zoidy You is one cheeky fella :)

  • 132
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

    CC

    Of course you would say that

  • 133
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    BH:

    It’s the reason why I don’t want voluntary voting brought in. For some reason conservatives will always turn out for the vote without much encouragement but Labor voters need a big shove. Do they think they’re vote won’t make any difference?

    It’s the same in America. The Democrat vote slumps at the mid-terms, but spikes again at the presidential election 2 years later when Dem voters are more motivated. Otherwise voter apathy prevails.

  • 134
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

    Gary @117 – wrong, again.

  • 135
    BH
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:08 pm | Permalink

    A leaked assessment by the Victorian Auditor-General's Office has found seven out of 14 public TAFEs are in deficit, including two in doubt ''as a going concern''.
    The finding comes at an awkward time for the Napthine government, which is desperate to avoid an electoral backlash in rural and regional Victoria less than eight months from the state election.

    lizzie I hope Vic Labor doesn’t let the electorate forget this before November. TAFE is a lifeblood for young trainees.

  • 136
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    @BH/131

    :)

    Just remind me of the cylons in Battlestar Galactica…. If we ever get to that point.

  • 137
    fredex
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

    compact
    Legal cases are irrelevant.
    For several reasons, one of which is that Abbott, that great proponent of free speech when it suits him, has simply changed government regs without changing the law.
    Its repression by regulation.

    Besides which laws are not necessarily related to ethics and morality – slavery was once legal but not ethical, women were not allowed to vote – and so on.
    Law is not always the arbiter of ethics, it frequently [always?] is just a reflection of who has the power to pass laws.

  • 138
    BH
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

    kakura

    I remember how Obama pleaded with Democrats to get out for the vote. It seems undemocratic not to want to vote.

    BTW I spelt ‘their’ as ‘they’re’. Phew, I don’t like these senior moments that keep popping up.

  • 139
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

    kakuru @125 – in the example you give the effect would be a -1 result. ABS monthly jobs figures sum to an increase in jobs since Abbott came to power.

  • 140
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

    victoria @132 – what was I supposed to say?

  • 141
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:16 pm | Permalink

    fredex – next time you cop an traffic infringement, parking ticket, decide no to pay a bill – just roll that one out:

    Legal cases are irrelevant.

  • 142
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

    CC:

    in the example you give the effect would be a -1 result. ABS monthly jobs figures sum to an increase in jobs since Abbott came to power.

    Unemployment is going up. The jobs being created aren’t enough to keep pace with the number of people looking for work. The “increase in jobs” metric is very simplistic.

    If the participation rate wasn’t so subdued, the unemployment rate would be much higher.

  • 143
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

    CC every now and then you need to hop off the merry-go-round to stop your head spinning ;)

  • 144
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

    CC

    You could have said that the job market is a serious concern

  • 145
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

    BH:

    I remember how Obama pleaded with Democrats to get out for the vote. It seems undemocratic not to want to vote.

    True. In the upcoming mid-terms, the apathy of many Democrat voters combined with the motivation of GOP voters to register a protest vote against Obama, will lead to a bloodbath for Dems in Congress.

    Then again, the exact reverse happened in Bush’s last mid-terms.

  • 146
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    kakuru @142 – Unemployment rate and participation rates are a seperate issue to the lie Zoidy told about no jobs having been created.

  • 147
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

    The job market is a serious concern.

    Anyone said it isn’t?

  • 148
    fredex
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

    fredex – next time you cop an traffic infringement, parking ticket, decide no to pay a bill – just roll that one out:

    Irrelevant compact.
    We are talking [well writing] about freedom of speech and ethics.
    Red herrings are smelly and have no place in this discussion – although your attempted use of such suggests you realize you are out of your depth.

  • 149
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:28 pm | Permalink

    fredex @148 – the law applies to free speech just as much as it does to any other aspect of our lives.

  • 150
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

    99
    zoidlord

    100
    Compact Crank

    Recent labour market stats are heavily influenced by the Feb survey, which printed a big increase in employment though almost no change in hours worked while unemployment also rose again. The same sort of thing happened in Feb 2013. The calculated rise in jobs is likely to be an artifact of the ABS modelling, as they themselves suggest. We need another couple of months to know if job creation has lifted or if it remains at relatively low levels. There is nothing so far in disposable income or investment data to suggest that employment trends are going to change either way.

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