tip off

Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Fortnightly results from Newspoll and Morgan both record shifts to the Coalition, in the former case giving them the lead for the first time in over three months.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition in the lead for the first time since late November, their lead of 51-49 comparing with Labor’s 52-48 lead in the poll of a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up three), 34% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down two). More to follow. UPDATE: Tony Abbott’s net approval improves slightly with approval steady on 40% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 31% and down one to 42%. There is also a less decisive result on preferred prime minister, with Abbott down two to 41% and Shorten down three to 33%. The Australian’s report here.

Morgan had its fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll out today, encompassing 2869 respondents over the past two weekends. It too has Labor losing ground on the previous poll, down from 54-46 ahead on respondent-allocated preferences to 51.5-48.5 (and on previous election preferences, 53.5-46.5 to 52-48), from primary votes of 34.5% for Labor (down four), 38.5% for the Coalition (up half a point), 12% for the Greens (up one point) and 5% for Palmer United (up half).

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average records very little change, with Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for Palmer United, the only change there being a one point drop for Labor. Also featured are the monthly leaders ratings, which have Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 47%, Bill Shorten up two to 32% and down one to 38%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister up from 39-33 to 42-32. Other questions find 25% support for the privatisation of Medibank Private and 46% opposition, 61% expecting it would cause health insurance fees to increase against just 3% who think they would decrease, and 25% approving of the sale of government assets to fund new infrastructure against 58% disapproving. A semi-regular question on climate change finds 56% thinking it caused by human activity, up five on January, with 34% favouring the more skeptical response, down five.

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  • 351
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    Diog, dirty linen, public, all that.

  • 352
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar @341 It’s been normal since the Australian Army started. Ministers of the Crown hold a Commission which entitles them to be saluted.

  • 353
    Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

    Re climate science:

    - That CO2 and certain gases trap heat in the atmosphere is established science which has been known since the late 19th century.
    - That the concentration of CO2 has increased by about one third since pre-industrial times is also well established. It has been possible to measure the comncentration directly since the 19th century and the science to determine concentrations in the remote past (e.g. from ice cores) is well-established.
    - An analysis of the prevalence of different isotopes of carbon in atmospheric CO2 indicates that the increase has come from burning fossil fuels, not volcanoes or any alternative source.

    Now if a Climate Scientist were able to come up with rigorous research, testable theories/mechanisms and calculations that indicated that in spite of the anthropogenic changes to concentrations of CO2, the global temperature will not rise significantly and the climate will not be adversely affetced, and had this published in a peer-reviewed journal, there might be a debate. In fact, such a scientist and the institution that they worked for would be on the receiving end of rivers of gold from the fossil fuel industry.

    So why are the deniers relying on clowns like ‘Lord’ Monckton, bloggers and writers with little or no scientific training, plus a few with scientific qualifications that are only peripherally or not at all related to climate science (e.g. Bob Carter – Marine Geology; Frederick Seitz – Physics)? Why are they reduced to hacking emails? Or poring through 8,000 page IPCC reports looking for typos? Can’t they find credible climate scientists to support them?

    They are like creationists – they know the answer, they just need retrofit the evidence or ignore any that contradicts their faith.

    Anyway, the pigeons will claim victory.

  • 354
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

    Ministers of the Crown hold a Commission which entitles them to be saluted.

    Whoopeydoo!

  • 355
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    badcat @346 I never bastardised or hazed anyone. You aren’t worth my time to pursue legally.

  • 356
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

    BW

    There are some reports around suggesting Abbott might be considering buying Japanese subs, or he’s just BSing them.

  • 357
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

    The fact is that the acolytes of catastrophic AGW are losing the argument because they have been shown time and again to be wrong as their predictions have failed to eventuate and models have not reflected reality.

    This is top grade (far better than ‘rolled gold’) rubbish.

  • 358
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

    Steve777:

    They are like creationists – they know the answer, they just need retrofit the evidence or ignore any that contradicts their faith.

    I like that. Well said.

  • 359
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

    Lynchpin@351

    Diog, dirty linen, public, all that.

    Its a case of “you can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs.”

    It is something that has to be done to achieve a necessary result.

    I would be OK with a formula which gave rank and file unionists a say. What I don’t want to continue is a handful of union leaders having all the say and stitching up the kind of deal that gave us Senator Bullock.

  • 360
    PeeBee
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

    ‘The fact is that the acolytes of catastrophic AGW are losing the argument because they have been shown time and again to be wrong as their predictions have failed to eventuate and models have not reflected reality. It’s hardly a sound basis on which to fundemantally change the global economy.’

    Shown time and again? Afraid not, the earth is warming and the climate is changing.

  • 361
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Pity the Germans couldn’t sell us the Type 212 . That said the Siemens hydrogen fuel cell technology they both have is pretty damn amazing. Plus in these days of “budget emergency” they will be way cheaper.

    Type 212

    The latest German submarines. Virtually undetectable, unlike diesel or nuclear submarines that generate more noise and/or higher heat signatures

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pf8qrKceLCc

  • 362
    Simon Katich
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

    Dio

    I would rather a brawl now rather than in a years time…. So long as it achieved meaningful change.

    Problem I see is there would be too many alpha cooks in that kitchen of change.

  • 363
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

    CC -

    The fact is that the acolytes of catastrophic AGW are losing the argument because they have been shown time and again to be wrong as their predictions have failed to eventuate and models have not reflected reality.

    You, clearly, are not in a position to assess whether the IPCC and the scientists involved have “been shown time and again to be wrong”.

    So you’re just accepting someone else’s assertion about this (likely you read Bolt quoting some other denier website).

    Why do you think that Bolt and the deniers are right about this and the IPCC and their scientists are wrong?

    The answer is obvious, of course – you don’t want to believe in AGW so you choose to accept the opinions of those who support your belief and reject the opinions of those who don’t.

    But that’s “hardly a sound basis” on which to plan for the future.

  • 364
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

    CC:

    The fact is that the acolytes of catastrophic AGW are losing the argument because they have been shown time and again to be wrong as their predictions have failed to eventuate and models have not reflected reality

    Says who? Monckton? Bolt? Jones? Climate models predicted more extreme weather events. That hasn’t happened, huh?

  • 365
    PeeBee
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

    ‘ I never bastardised or hazed anyone. ‘ But is has been shown time and again people who have behave like you do.

  • 366
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

    Why do you think that Bolt and the deniers are right about this and the IPCC and their scientists are wrong?

    Because, as you say Jackol, CC deniers only believe those they already agree with.

  • 367
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

    In Victoria, the Coalition are deliberately allowing the extinction of the Leadbeater’s Possum, by clearing its mature forest habitat. Profits beat possums every time – the irony is that there is no longer much profit in old-growth timber.

    David Lindenmayer, an acknowledged expert, suggests that this is the first deliberate extinction in Australia.

  • 368
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

    344
    Compact Crank

    All the ad hominem attacks are rather churlish.

    The criticisms don’t go far enough. There is no point in arguing with those who will not apply reason in good faith, but who prefer to insult everyone with their irrelevancies, lies, slogans and infantile sophistry.

  • 369
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:36 pm | Permalink

    People generally don’t give up wealth power or privilege without a fight. To expect the union masters who have ruthlessly acquired and exercised power in their own interests to turn around and give it up without a massive fight is very foolish.

    In a corner they might make small concessions and introduced process designed to look like they don’t exercise the power but that is very different to giving up power.

    With the ALP there is the added complication of less powerful unions / factions looking for an opportunity to increase their power at the cost of others.

    Some of these power structures are very state based others are more national. It is not going to be easy or quick.

  • 370
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    Is this a mess, or is this a mess?

    A number of homes and businesses in 15 towns across Australia face having their phone and internet services cut off when copper lines that connect them are switched off in 45 days, National Broadband Network Company chairman Ziggy Switkowski warned on Tuesday.

    At a speech at the CommsDay conference in Sydney, Dr Switkowski said 19,000 premises still had an active copper connection, which would be turned off on May 23.

    Some of the 19,000 are using their copper connection in parallel with an NBN fibre connection for either ADSL, security alarm systems or other devices like medical alarms, but will no longer be able to use the copper following the cut-off date.

    It's unclear how many of the 19,000 have switched over to a fibre, fixed-wireless or satellite NBN connection. NBN Co is attempting to clarify this with Fairfax.

    http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/government-it/dday-approaching-for-landline-switch-off-warns-nbn-chief-ziggy-switkowski-20140408-zqs6i.html

  • 371
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    Peebee @360 Who says the Earth isn’t warming and the climate isn’t changing? It’s been doing that since the last Ice Age.

  • 372
    Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    Labor elder statesman John Faulkner is pushing for all Labor senators and New South Wales upper house members to be preselected by the party’s rank and file instead of its annual conference, to stamp out corruption and reduce the influence of factional powerbrokers.

    It’s got to be better than any process that gives someone like Joe Bullock the number 1 spot in a Senate election.

  • 373
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

    355
    Compact Crankink

    badcat @346 I never bastardised or hazed anyone.

    So you say. But why would anyone believe you, considering most of your postings are rubbish. You set out to make a fool of yourself and have succeeded.

  • 374
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    What utter drivel

    Former Western Australian Treasurer Troy Buswell may be keeping a low profile at Parliament House but his Vasse electorate office in Busselton, south of Perth, is anything but quiet.
    A month after news of Mr Buswell's alleged driving incident and mental health issues broke publicly, it's business as usual for the Busselton electoral office, which has received an outpouring of support from constituents for the local member.

    Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/support-pours-in-for-troy-buswell-from-vasse-constituents-20140407-368q5.html#ixzz2yGpFOF9O

  • 375
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    Why won’t the ALP select lower house members by member ballots? Don’t trust the maddies?

  • 376
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

    Those poor little boys…
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/man-killed-by-train-children-found-wandering-on-highway-20140408-369ne.html

  • 377
    Astrobleme
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

    Crank

    “Who says the Earth isn’t warming and the climate isn’t changing? It’s been doing that since the last Ice Age.”

    You are an idiot. Go and read some science before you decide to lecture people on something you obviously have no idea about.

  • 378
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

    371
    Compact Crank

    Peebee @360 Who says the Earth isn’t warming and the climate isn’t changing? It’s been doing that since the last Ice Age.

    This corruptly misstates the record. 2000 years of very slow cooling from Roman times until the end of the 19th century have been reversed and another 0.9 deg of warming added in just over 100 years, mostly in the last 50 years.

    The direction of the curve has been abruptly reversed.

    But why bother telling you this? You will persist with your lies anyway.

  • 379
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

    briefly @373 If most of my posts here are rubbish, that’s because I’m trying to fit in with the piles of garbage of almost all the others.

    They don’t like it up ‘em.

  • 380
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

    Kakuru

    The fact that the Greens scuppered the first chance at an ETS seems to be omitted from your laundry list of sins.

    That’s because the “first chance” was simply a polluters’ pay day, that would have tainted carbon pricing for at least a decade, much as the EU scheme did. It wasn’t an attempt to make a start, but an attempt to wedge both us and the LNP using the smell of mitigation as a cover.

    While something is usually better than nothing, that something has to be a good of some kind. If that something is a spitball in the eye, or a chance at getting a wedgie, most people would prefer nothing.

  • 381
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    CC

    Go and clean up your own party’s cesspit. Remember how we ended up with Scrote Morriscum ?

    News Limited was willing to pay dearly for this story not to be published. It first offered a $110,000 payment, plus a private apology, to avoid going to court...........

    Towke won easily. On the first ballot, he polled 10 times as many votes as Morrison, 82 votes to 8, who was eliminated in the first round. His victory meant that a Lebanese Australian would represent the Liberal Party in the seat where the Cronulla riot and revenge raids had taken place 18 months earlier, in December 2005..........A second ballot was ordered, in which the balance of power was shifted away from the grassroots in Cook and to the state executive. The second ballot gave the preselection to Scott Morrison. Amazing. He had been parachuted into the seat over Towke's political carcass. Morrison clearly had backers who wanted him to get the seat.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/society-and-culture/nasty-saga-you-nearly-missed-20091025-hem5.html#ixzz2yHLsNi9N

  • 382
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

    375
    Compact Crank

    Why won’t the ALP select lower house members by member ballots? Don’t trust the maddies?

    HaHa. Who are the LNP to lecture anyone? We only need to consider the Member for Tangney, the absurd relic, Dennis Jensen, twice rejected by his local branches and twice reinstated by the brains trust in West Perth.

  • 383
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

    @GhostWhoVotes: #Essential Poll Cause of climate change: Human activity 56 (+5) Normal fluctuation 34 (-5) #auspol

    The delusionals, patsies and spivs are on the backfoot.

  • 384
    Astrobleme
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

    Crank

    You remind of an old friend I had. He was ex-military, fancied himself as an actor too.

    I asked him what evidence he would need to accept that AGW was real. His answer was ‘nothing’. So no evidence would convince him AGW was real. Do you feel the same?

    Perhaps being in the military ruins people’s ability to reason?

  • 385
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    @GhostWhoVotes: #Essential Poll Cause of climate change: Human activity 56 (+5) Normal fluctuation 34 (-5) #auspol

    Hmmm

  • 386
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:56 pm | Permalink

    Oops didn’t mean to post that twice.

    Here’s what I intended:

    @GhostWhoVotes: #Essential Poll State Govts selling assets to fund new infrastructure: Approve 25 Disapprove 58 #auspol

  • 387
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:57 pm | Permalink

    Cranky is going over drive, calling everyone who doesn’t agree with cranky,’piles of garbage’.

    So rather than make a debate out of the situation, you personally, attack those instead.

    Perhaps in future Cranky, don’t blow your own trumpet? When the facts don’t suit your argument?

  • 388
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:57 pm | Permalink

    briefly @378 – you strangely somehow forgot to mention the Cool Dark Ages followed by Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age – all those bothersome fluctuations.

    Oops.

  • 389
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:57 pm | Permalink

    379
    Compact Crank

    They don’t like it up ‘em.

    LOL – Are you playing at Corporal Jones from “Dad’s Army”!! It all falls into place at last. Do you copy all your lines!

  • 390
    rossmcg
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    Victoria

    A lot of Troy buswell’s constituents would regard his Saturday night drive through subiaco as normal weekend behaviour.

    He will be a hero as he managed to avoid prosecution fir driving under the influence.

  • 391
    Astrobleme
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

    Crank

    “you strangely somehow forgot to mention the Cool Dark Ages followed by Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age – all those bothersome fluctuations.”

    Seriously. GO and read some science. These were trivial compared to what we are facing.

  • 392
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

    Astro

    They were also geographically circumscribed.

  • 393
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

    Astrobleme

    Perhaps being in the military ruins people’s ability to reason?

    You got it! They have to obey orders without question.

  • 394
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    388
    Compact Crank

    briefly @378 – you strangely somehow forgot to mention the Cool Dark Ages followed by Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age – all those bothersome fluctuations.

    Oops.

    What would you know! Minor localised fluctuations – mere blips on the global record – which clearly shows the sudden reversal of a secular trend at a rate that, by itself alone, suggests it is not random but has been forced.

    While you cannot account for this change in direction, science can and does. Unless denialists are able to offer a satisfactory account for changes in the climate, they do not deserve to be taken seriously. They’re basically fondling themselves.

  • 395
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    Astro @384 Well, there you’ve got me wrong. Yes, warming is occurring – both natural and man made. The question of how much man is contributing, how much the warming will be, whether or not it will be beneficial or catastrophic and whether or not a global agreement that is politically, economically and environmentally effective and efficient could be struck, is yet to be answered.

  • 396
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    lizzie

    Mindless obedience is a valued attribute.

  • 397
    Astrobleme
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

    Fran

    So we should be circumspect about them… :)

  • 398
    Astrobleme
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

    Lizzie

    It would seem so!

  • 399
    Astrobleme
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    Crank

    “Yes, warming is occurring – both natural and man made. The question of how much man is contributing, how much the warming will be, whether or not it will be beneficial or catastrophic and whether or not a global agreement that is politically, economically and environmentally effective and efficient could be struck, is yet to be answered.”

    You are seriously wondering whether this has been answered???

    Currently our Global CO2 emissions account for over 100% of the current warming… Now I know you will attempt to ridicule this, but if you think it through you will see the answer.

  • 400
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, April 8, 2014 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    Fran Barlow

    geographically circumscribed

    Jewish ? :)

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