tip off

BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

The Coalition lead in Newspoll causes the two parties to reach parity on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, while Tony Abbott pulls ahead of Bill Shorten on net approval.

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan has put BludgerTrack back to the position of two-party parity it was at three weeks ago, after which Labor was up to 51.8% and then 50.9%. They have also ironed out the brief slump recorded by the Greens last week, who have progressed from 11.3% to 8.9% to 10.4%. This week’s gain has come entirely at the expense of Labor, with the Coalition vote unchanged. On the seat projection, the Coalition is back in majority government territory, the meter having ticked in their favour by two seats in New South Wales and one each in Queensland and Western Australia. After a quiet spot last week, new leadership figures have emerged from Newspoll and Essential Research, and they find Tony Abbott with a rare lead over Bill Shorten on net approval, although preferred prime minister remains in the stasis it assumed in early December.

Also note that coverage of the Western Australian Senate count is ongoing on the dedicated thread, with a Liberal victory in the final seat looking increasingly likely.

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  • 101
    Compact Crank
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    Dio @96 An understatement, if ever there was one.

  • 102
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    The Jewish lobby could go Carr using the RDA.

    But it’s easier for them to just call him a bigot because he doesn’t agree with them.

  • 103
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:08 am | Permalink

    I got to give Carr and danby credit. They have managed to take the limelight today. Managed to even get Bigots and the RDA back into the discussion.
    Well done

  • 104
    swamprat
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:09 am | Permalink

    CC

    Or, do you think the Scottish are morons?

    Hardly but a lot are told they are “too poor, too wee and too stupid”

    Or, just maybe, your claims are bunkem.

    Haha. As a famous Scottish writer of the 18th Century said “facts are stubborn things” (Tobias Smollent).

    Just one example.

    The BBC published statistics on wealth in UK 2012 (map on left). Nice figures if exclude oil and gas. The more accurate map is on the right.

    https://twitter.com/stephenkidd56/status/448434397662810112/photo/1/large

  • 105
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:09 am | Permalink

    Dio

    The Jewish lobby could go Carr using the RDA.

    I think this a small publicity seeking imbroglio that no one will be talking about in a few days time.

  • 106
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:12 am | Permalink

    How convenient

    IAN MACDONALD's business partner, who is considered a ''crucial witness'' in a corruption inquiry is understood to have checked himself into a mental-health centre.
    John Gerathy, the business partner and lawyer of disgraced former minister Ian Macdonald, has told the Independent Commission Against Corruption he is ill and unable to give evidence.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/macdonalds-business-partner-books-into-mental-care-unit-20130213-2eddv.html#ixzz2yRR11Mg9

  • 107
    Compact Crank
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:13 am | Permalink

    Let’s just restore Israel to the 1947 borders and sit back and watch what happens. We all know that the Palestinians and the rest of the Arab World are gentle, peace loving peoples.

    Or perhaps just reverse the 1947 establishment of Israel and let them all peacefully coexist.

  • 108
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:14 am | Permalink

    CTar1

    A quick edit needed.

    I think this a small publicity seeking imbroglio that no one will be talking about in a few days time.

  • 109
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    CTar1/poroti

    It is hilarious watching the msm getting sucked in

  • 110
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    Climate Change deniers big backers have moved on to the next stage .From denying man made climate change to accepting it BUT saying it is all good.

    Or else they admit it’s real, and admit we have to do something about right away but, when asked about specific events – bushfires, cycloines, droughts, floods etc. – deny that any of them are down to climate change, indeed implying that climate change has no discernable effects at all.

  • 111
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    Victoria

    IAN MACDONALD's business partner, who is considered a ''crucial witness'' in a corruption inquiry is understood to have checked himself into a mental-health centre.
    John Gerathy, the business partner and lawyer of disgraced former minister Ian Macdonald, has told the Independent Commission Against Corruption he is ill and unable to give evidence.

    That was last year and ICAC accepted the bloke was genuinely ill.

  • 112
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    102
    Diogenes

    The Jewish lobby could go Carr using the RDA.

    Maybe he has made remarks that would give rise to offense or insult. If he has he would almost certainly be able to rely on s18.d to defend himself.

  • 113
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    A psephos arbitration on the Danby Carr imbroglio would be entertaining.

  • 114
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:19 am | Permalink

    Scots are 5.3 million of the UK’s 63.7 million people – about one in twelve. An independent Scotland will be comparable in population to Denmark, Finland, Slovakia, Singapore (and Queensland and Victoria) and a bit more than Ireland and New Zealand. There’s no obvious impediment to Scotland being a viable independent nation, if that’s what the Scots want, especially with North Sea oil.

    So if they gained independence I expect that they would take on about one twelth of the debt (so a bit over £100 billion), one twelth of the defence assets, local roads and hospitals and an equitable agreement regarding North Sea oil.

    But from what I’ve read, the polls are against it and with a well-funded No campaing gearing up in the coming months, I am not expecting to see any change.

  • 115
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    vic – Slow news day …

  • 116
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    Cambell Newman holding a press conference to tell us what the BoM has been telling us for around 5 days.

  • 117
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    Employment stats will be out soon so that should give us something to talk about.

    How many jobs has Abbott lost in March?

  • 118
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:24 am | Permalink

    Shellbell

    My bad. I meant to show this tweet first, and refer to what happened at last ICAC hearing about witnesses being unable to give evidence due to illness. It all seems rather convenient to me

    Solicitor Dennis Vuaran has provided medical certificate saying he is suffering an "elevated heart rate", cant presently give evidence #iac
    10:10am - 10 Apr 14

  • 119
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    davidwh

    How many jobs has Abbott lost in March?

    None – he still seems to be there.

  • 120
    dave
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    Diogenes@96

    This is a very ordinary breach of confidence.


    Former foreign minister Bob Carr has published private text messages between himself and Julia Gillard to reveal the “extraordinary” level of influence the pro-Israel lobby had on the former prime minister’s office.

    He “claims” he did so in the public interest.

    I wonder how many pages he devoted to telling people what he knew about the corruption of Obeid etc and what he did about it?

    Yes he had retired, but it must have developed on his watch and he was still a senior Labor figure while the corruption flourished.

    That is far more in the public interest.

    He may think he is smart writing the stuff he did. I see him as just another arsehole who ‘achieved’ fcuk all in his time as FM.

    All he is doing is tearing the scab of destructive infighting within Labor yet again – and spitting in the faces of Labor voters.

    Good riddens to him.

  • 121
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    @davidwh/117

    Commsec posted on twitter last night March only added 11,000, Unemployment still 6.0%.

  • 122
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    Dave

    I don’t mind him saying he thought Gillard was too pro Israel, but to include private text messages is not even close to being acceptable.

  • 123
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    CommSec ‏@CommSec 2m

    Jobless rate falls to 5.8% (mkt expected 6.1%). 18,100 jobs created in Mar; significantly better than market forecasts. #jobs #ausecon ^SD

    Updated.

  • 124
    CTar1
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    ABC ‘Unemployment rate falls from 6 per cent to 5.8 per cent in March’.

  • 125
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    The NT confiscation legislation which the High Court okayed today seems to permit the government to take property which is legitimately acquired if used as part of a criminal pursuit eg – conduct criminal business from it.

  • 126
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    Jobless rate falls to 5.8% (mkt expected 6.1%). 18,100 jobs created in Mar; significantly better than market forecasts.

    That’s a great result for Australia and Abbott.

    I’m sure everyone here will be pleased. :)

  • 127
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    Good riddens to him.

    Bob Carr never leaves

  • 128
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0

    TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

    Employment increased to 11,531,600.
    Unemployment increased to 730,400 from a revised February 2014 estimate.
    Unemployment rate increased by less than 0.1 pts to 6.0%.
    Participation rate remained steady at 64.7%.
    Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 2.8 million hours (0.2%) to 1,615.6 million hours.

    No big change in labour market trends in March. Job growth exists, but at a rate that is slower than labour supply/ population growth. Unemployment continues to edge upwards.

  • 129
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:43 am | Permalink

    CommSec ‏@CommSec 2m

    Aust Mar Jobs Report – Unemployment 5.8% Aggregate monthly hours worked up 2.8Million hours (0.2%) to 1,615.6M hours. #ausbiz

    But again still has nothing to do with this government :)

    Since they have no policy in creating jobs, but cutting policies in the budget are in the pipe line, and hockey’s words are ‘wide ranging cuts’.

  • 130
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:44 am | Permalink

    Dio that is positive news if it is confirmed.

  • 131
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    dio

    As per the link briefly posted. Nothing good about the job numbers at all

  • 132
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    davidwh

    It is not positive news. Check out briefly’s link.

  • 133
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    Let’s just restore Israel to the 1947 borders and sit back and watch what happens. We all know that the Palestinians and the rest of the Arab World are gentle, peace loving peoples.

    Supporters of Israel should perhaps be a little smarter than relying on a belief, founded only fundamental racism, that somehow the ‘Arab World’ is somehow innately more violent than any other race or part of the world. It is more silly than the frequent suggestion that the military might of the Arab world is a real and present danger to the ongoing viability of the Israeli state such that all manner of the grossest and most vile human rights abuses are not only defensible but somehow honorable.

  • 134
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:47 am | Permalink

    zoidlord people can’t have it both ways, blame Abbott when the rate goes up but say it’s nothing to do with him when the rate goes down. I can live with a consistent opinion either way. Personally I think governments have some impact on jobs but usually not a significant impact. Of couse when you have multi-billion $ stimulus programs then the impact becomes more significant.

  • 135
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:48 am | Permalink

    Grog makes the pertinent point

    If you think the seasonally adj figure is the one to report, then March had the 4th biggest drop in unemployment rate in the past decade

  • 136
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:48 am | Permalink

    @davidwh/130

    It’s not actually.

    From what I’m reading, Unemployment still ground in the thousands.

  • 137
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    Unemployment rate is based upon a Bureau of Statistics sanple of about 300,000 people. For typical unemployment rates (i.e under 10%), the margin of error is about 0.1%. So the rate will tend to jump around by 0.1% from month to month, but a drop from 6.1% to 5.8% does look like good news.

  • 138
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:50 am | Permalink

    Another tweet from Grog

    Lulz, WA seas adjusted unemployment rate falls from 5.9% to 4.9%!!! While trend went from 5.1% to 5.3%.

  • 139
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:50 am | Permalink

    @davidwh/134

    Abbott promised before and during election, that they will help workers find jobs, and give money to those who get a job and help stay in it.

    Well, those are no longer being talked about.

    Remember, Abbott said:

    $6500 for those who get a job and stick with it.
    2 million jobs in a decade.

    And few other things.

  • 140
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:50 am | Permalink

    And another

    Trend is your friend. Unemployment rate Seas adj *falls* from 6.1% to 5.8%, while trend goes from 5.9% to 6.0%

  • 141
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    Of course Tony Abbott et al will claim credit for the drop in unemployment. Had the rate gone up, they’d have blamed Labor.

  • 142
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    So we are saying that when the forecast was for less jobs to be created and the unemployment rate to increase when in fact jobs created was higher and the unemployment rate actually reduced is not positive news.

    Sigh … I surrender.

  • 143
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:53 am | Permalink

    @davidwh/142

    We been saying that Unemployment still out ranks Employment.

    18,000 Per month is what is required.

  • 144
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    davidwh

    Not what we are saying

    TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

    Employment increased to 11,531,600.
    Unemployment increased to 730,400 from a revised February 2014 estimate.
    Unemployment rate increased by less than 0.1 pts to 6.0%.
    Participation rate remained steady at 64.7%.
    Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 2.8 million hours (0.2%) to 1,615.6 million hours.

  • 145
    Gary
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    You have to hand it to Bob Carr, he knows how to sell a book.

  • 146
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:56 am | Permalink

    Gary

    Indeed.

  • 147
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:56 am | Permalink

    Gary

    I’m almost tempted to buy it.

    What are these “steel cut oats” he eats for breakfast?

  • 148
    davidwh
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:56 am | Permalink

    zoidlord I understand all that and accept the employment market is still weak. Still a lot of hard work to be done to get back to where we were in 2008. I just take some comfort that the situation is better than expected. I guess I am just a glass half-full type of person.

  • 149
    Compact Crank
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:58 am | Permalink

    WWP @133

    You make a lot of inferences not based on facts.

    Has not Israel fought a number of wars against Arab neighbours and suffered constant Terrorist attack? Pointing out the facts is not about race.

    As for you rclaims about human rights abuses – the IDF and Israeli justice system takes action against Israeli soldiers who break the law against Palestinians. Have the Palestinians ever done such a thing?

  • 150
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 at 11:59 am | Permalink

    Re my 141 – apologies – that was incorrect – I must have mixed it up with something else.

    http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6202.0Explanatory%20Notes1Mar%202014?OpenDocument

    “The Labour Force Survey is based on a multi-stage area sample of private dwellings (currently approximately 26,000 houses, flats, etc.) and a list sample of non-private dwellings (hotels, motels, etc.), and covers approximately 0.32% of the civilian population of Australia aged 15 years and over.”

    So the sample size would be closer to about 50,000 people and the margin of error would be about 0.2%. The drop is still good news.

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