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NT Politics

Apr 12, 2014

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7.35pm. Now, all in one hit, we’ve got both primary and pre-poll results from all three ordinary polling booths, together with results from the Darwin pre-poll booth. The raw two-party result shows the CLP leading by 3.2%, and my projection is hardly different at 3.7%, a swing to Labor of 9.5%. I have the CLP primary vote down 15.8% on a booth-matched basis, or 45.5% in raw terms, but Labor is up only 3.2% to 37.5% thanks to the 8.3% vote for independent Matthew Cranitch. The Greens and Citizens Electoral Council, who did not field candidates in 2012, are respectively on 7.3% and 1.4%. So to summarise: the CLP has suffered a large swing, but not sufficient to cost them the seat given the extent to which it was absorbed by candidates other than Labor.

7.22pm. “I think we’ve won,” says CLP president Ross Connolly, as related by Nine reporter Kathleen Bruyn on Twitter. However, I still have nothing more to go on than the aforementioned Palmerston pre-poll booth primary votes.

7.20pm. The media feed being deployed by Antony Green is evidently running ahead of the result being published on the NTEC website, as it has a two-party result from those pre-polls. These suggest that my preference guesstimates were spot on, or at least that the errors cancelled out. There’s also talk on Twitter that the Rosebery booth is likewise recording a big-but-not-big-enough swing to Labor.

6.55pm. 521 pre-poll primary votes have been added, and based on my very crude preference distribution, in which Labor gets 80% of Greens preferences and 40% of independents and CEC, the result is a 9.1% swing off a margin of 13.2%.

6pm. Booths – all three of them – have closed. I guess we might see a first result in 45 minutes or so.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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16 comments

16 thoughts on “Blain by-election live

  1. docantk

    Interesting dynamic: will voters consciously choose minority government?

  2. Aristotle

    With only 5900 voters, it might be cheaper to get Nielsen to poll them.

  3. Kevin Bonham

    I agree the swing’s probably not enough in the EVC booth. From what Mark Di Stefano’s been tweeting it looks like not enough in Rosebery either.

  4. Kevin Bonham

    Swing definitely not enough in Palmerston EVC – it was 10.5%.

  5. Just Me

    Just on ABC local news, one booth to CLP, one swinging to Labor (53%), and one unknown.

  6. Kevin Bonham

    NTEC just posted four booths at once. Game over. CLP retain seat and majority.

  7. Kevin Bonham

    Colin Wicking @MrWicking
    #blainvotes delivers stable CLP government for at least a couple of days.

  8. Acerbic Conehead

    Aristotle,

    [With only 5900 voters, it might be cheaper to get Nielsen to poll them.]

    That’s gotta be a no-Blainer.

  9. Everything

    Why did the Union independent direct preferences to the CLP rather than ALP?

  10. Arrnea Stormbringer

    Despite the outcome, the CLP has gotta be shaken by how close to losing their majority they have come.

    They’re on the edge – one by-election or defection away from an election.

  11. Everything

    Arrnea:

    Well, not really, they could have survived as a minority government even if they had lost Blain, with Indie support.

  12. Just Me

    [That’s gotta be a no-Blainer.]

    If you are not careful, AC, you will turn into the Blain of our lives.

  13. Acerbic Conehead

    Just Me,

    [If you are not careful, AC, you will turn into the Blain of our lives.]

    LOL.

    I can’t help myself…I blain my social worker.

  14. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ Everything 11

    After getting 16/25 (64%) of the seats at the last election, to come crashing down to 13 (52%) not even halfway through the term is, quite frankly, disastrous for the CLP.

    Further, how many times have the Coalition chided Labor for “needing Independent support to survive as a Government”? Pot, kettle.

  15. Edwina StJohn

    If only hendo had been there, the result would have been different.

  16. Everything

    [Arrnea Stormbringer
    ….They’re on the edge – one by-election or defection away from an election.]

    …just pointing out that what you said (above) was wRONg, thats all! :devil: