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Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

The latest monthly Nielsen poll finds Labor regaining the two-party lead, and the Greens at an all-time record high.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

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  • 651
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

    shellbell

    What shadow? The door was closed.

    I take it you are not buying the self defence side of things.

  • 652
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

    Hitting an unseen target through a closed door is pretty good shooting.

  • 653
    victoria
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    You can follow the latest on the cross examination of Oscar

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/oscar-pistorius-trial-athlete-faces-sixth-day-of-grilling-20140414-36nem.html

  • 654
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 8:51 pm | Permalink

    v
    ta
    Looking forward to katz v hawks next monday?

  • 655
    shellbell
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 8:53 pm | Permalink

    BW

    No to self defence although it might have got a run in front of a jury

  • 656
    victoria
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 8:54 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Most definitely. OH and son will be going to the game as usual.

  • 657
    sohar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    Looking at the polling in Neilsen, it seems as though NSW supporting the ‘home boy’, Abbott. Can see no other reason for it.

  • 658
    Tricot
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    To be fair to Costello and the largess to self-refunded retirees, his goal at the time, as I understood it, was to make the ‘new’ pension arrangements attractive enough (carrot)and prescriptive enough (stick) that those who could afford to do so, would take out life time annuities and never have the need of a State pension – thereby taking pressure off the amount which would have to be shelled out for Aged Pensions.

    He was possibly a little over generous, but I laugh now at the Pension Industry and the SFR who squealed like stuck pigs when Labor wished to make some modest changes to the Costello arrangement.

    Labor got hammered with calls to make sure there was “certainty”, and that people could safely “plan for their retirement” blah, blah and blah.

    Now, despite a rock solid, in gold, not-a-promise-to-be broken rubbish at the elections, it is the conservatives who have to take their own creation apart.

    I am waiting too for the screams of outrage from all the pensioners (“Isn’t Tony a lovely boy and not like that witch Gillard) as they realise their pin-up boy has dudded them.

    We will, I suppose, get the pathetic stories of old fogies eating dog food as a highlight once a week, and wrapping themselves up in newspaper to keep warm because of …………well it must be Labor’s fault…….

  • 659
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    shellbell
    thanks.

  • 660
    kezza2
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    Sorry for not replying

    Phone call then the trial resumed. Now on another ‘emotional’ adjournment. And the milady has asked to see counsel during adjournment.

    He put 4 rounds into a door trying to kill whoever was behind it. Simple really.

    Oh yes. I think he’s in big trouble legally, because even if he thought he was being threatened by A and not B, but ends up killing B, then he meant to kill A.

    Murder anyway, isn’t it?

  • 661
    Dee
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

    The closure of car manufacturing could cost Australia nearly 200,000 jobs and $29 billion in lost economic output, a new report predicts.

    The nationwide impacts will extend far beyond the core car-making regions of Victoria and South Australia.

    Victoria will be hardest hit by the closure of the car plants when first Ford, then General Motors Holden and Toyota stop manufacturing in Australia over the next three years.

    The study estimates that up to 100,000 direct and indirect jobs will be lost in Victoria when the plants shut their doors.

    Nearly 24,000 jobs will be lost in South Australia.

    Projected loss of 198,826 jobs

    VIC: 98,480
    NSW: 32,491
    QLD: 30,090
    SA: 23,903
    WA: 11,275
    TAS: 1,742
    ACT: 421
    NT: 421
    Source: Closing the Motor Vehicle Industry - The impact in Australia
    Surprisingly, Queensland and NSW will be even harder hit than South Australia, according to the modelling, with each of these states losing more than 30,000 jobs through flow-on effects from the end of car making.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-14/study-warns-carmakers-exit-could-see-200000-jobs-lost/5389682

  • 662
    kezza2
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:08 pm | Permalink

    Or here:

    http://www.mediaite.com/online/watch-live-here-oscar-pistorius-murder-trial-april-14th/

  • 663
    kezza2
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

    Earlier Roux accused Nel of deliberately making Pistorius emotional and thus wasting the court’s time; so every time the actual shooting’s discussed Pistorius breaks down.

    Rock and a hard place. Be interesting to be in milady’s chamber during this interval.

  • 664
    sohar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

    I think the Hawks will probably win comfortably, but hope it is closer as a neutral viewer. Speaking as a Swan, Hawthorn are far and away the best team I have seen, including Geelong 2007-9.

  • 665
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

    YO BITCHES!

  • 666
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

    Pistorius is a hot headed psycho gun slinger from the old west.

  • 667
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

    @Dee/661

    Sounds like the opposite of the amount of jobs created with the stimulus package, during GFC.

    Sounds like liberals winding back the clock…

  • 668
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    @Dee

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australia-you-dont-know-how-good-youve-got-it-20130901-2sytb.html

    “In Australia the stimulus helped avoid a recession and saved up to 200,000 jobs. And new research shows that stimulus may have also actually reduced government debt over time. Evidence from the crisis suggests that, when the economy is weak, the long-run tax revenue benefits of keeping businesses afloat and people in work can be greater than the short-run expenditure on stimulus measures. That means that a well-targeted fiscal stimulus might actually reduce public debt in the long run.”

  • 669
    liyana
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    I wonder what effect the changes to the age pension age will have on all those 55 pluses who are favouring the LNP in this poll?

    And for those thinking they can get unemployment Benefit between ages 60-70, think again. The income and assets tests for Newstart are far more restrictive than those for the aged pension. People will have to start hiding their assets/income, maybe in negative gearing property? in order to get any government help in either income or health areas.

    So from today, I’m thinking of how to offshore my income….

  • 670
    Everything
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:13 pm | PERMALINK
    Pistorius is a hot headed psycho gun slinger from the old west.

    …allegedly….

  • 671
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

    sohar

    The depth is interesting. The Hawks have out injured, or playing in the reserves, around about six or seven players who would be guaranteed a regular spot in most of the bottom eight run on teams.

    Geelong has pretty well had the wood on the hawks recently. Geelong is playing extremely well… it kept West Coast to four goals.

    So I think that the Geelong v Hawks result is going to be a couple of kicks in it on the night, with early injuries during the game probably determining the outcome.

  • 672
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

    One is around twenty times more likely to be shot to death in South Africa than one is in Australia.

  • 673
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

    All other things being equal.

  • 674
    Everything
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar:

    You might like this

    http://www.laughlocker.com/assets/0/3/south-african-customs-agent_1339649997.jpg

    Haha :)

  • 675
    sohar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    BW,
    I reckon most people think a less than two goal game, but I think it will be around 4 goals the Hawks way, although close at 3/4 time.

  • 676
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    …allegedly….

    Bull farqing shit allegedly

    You gutless wonder.

  • 677
    rossmcg
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    hawthorn beat Geelong by 5 points in last years prelim, the first time in yonks. The idea that they are that far ahead of the Cats is a bit of a stretch. They are good, but so are the Cats. Monday should be a cracker

  • 678
    Everything
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    “Alleged gutless wonder”, thank you very much.

  • 679
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    rmcg
    Yep. I reckon both teams are better than at the end of last year. I hope the game is a cracker, and that the hawks win by a point after the siren.

  • 680
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    676

    Matter before the courts. Commenting on a blog is publishing. They have the internet in South Africa.

    Have you checked South African law relating to commenting on matters before the court?

  • 681
    briefly
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    624
    confessions

    It is a very absorbing visual

    Yes, since I found it I’ve been obsessed with the ‘roaring forties’ territory. No wonder sailors declare that leg the most challenging of the round the world trip.

    you may have to change your tag from confessions to synoptic obsessions…

  • 682
    shellbell
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    The commentary, while the Hawks were taking the Suns apart on Saturday night, was about the Hawks going unbeaten through the season if they get past the Cats.

  • 683
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    E
    Well, you know how it is, I believe that more guns are not really the solution to lots of guns.

  • 684
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    678

    Are is whether or not you are a gutless wonder a matter before the courts anywhere?

  • 685
    Everything
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    Should I discuss it with my Barrister?

    I try to avoid discussions with my Barrister for 2 reasons:
    1. I haven’t time to arrange a second mortgage.
    2. I don’t have a Barrister.

  • 686
    shellbell
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    The Pistorious coverage has some SA legal bloke in front of his own advertising board saying how weak Pistorious is looking.

  • 687
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    4 corners was thought provoking tonite.
    How many people has had a Holden in their families ?
    More than voted for Abbott, I suspect.

  • 688
    sohar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    It has been a strange AFL season. Despite the overall evenness of the competition compared to other years, there has been an extraordinary amount of blow-out games. One side will be thrashed one week and then thrash another team the next week. Possibly the most boring season I can remember.

  • 689
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    shellbell

    My comments would be that the commentators are getting well ahead of themselves:

    (1) injuries to Smith and Hill would invalidate that
    (2) the hawks were ultra ready at the beginning of the season, and may well tire as the season progresses
    (3) opposition coaches will be studying the hawks intently
    (4) teams often put a bit of extra effort in giving the premiers a physical hammering
    (5) both Essendon and Fre would be quite different propositions when they have a fully fit list on hand. In particular the loss of Fyfe and that other midfielder knocked a huge hole in Freo’s midfield and in Sandiland’s effectiveness.

    I am not much good at reading trends, but it seems clear to me that the hawks have done a lot of work on an immediate kick (as opposed to a one step kick). Sometimes this kick is taken while the player is still in the air and involves throwing the ball onto the boot, rather than on dropping the ball. The other trend is a short kick off the ground to advantage (two of these in succession by Smith initiated the final sequence of play that led to Essendon’s defeat). Most teams are now routinely doing a variety of knock ons, taps and scoops.

  • 690
    imacca
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    Well, it is not all bad.

    People will still be entitled to be bigots.

    Yes but they will be old, poor, bigots.

  • 691
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    T Jones to J Sloane – as a woman well into your 70′s what are your thoughts?

  • 692
    shellbell
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

    BW

    Swans cannot do jack without the Australian of the Year back in the side.

  • 693
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

    sohar

    Some of the hawks stuff has been exhilerating.

    Gunston’s aerial would have graced an elite soccer game.

    Rioli’s sequence of leaping contested mark, landing like a cat, dodging two or three Freo players as if they had their feet nailed to the ground, followed by a running left foot snap for goal was superb. They showed Ross Lyon immediately afterwards and he showed a broad, if somewhat rueful grin. He just enjoyed it because it was great footie.

    The sheer pleasure of the Melbourne players also made for a great moment in AFL sport.

    OTOH, the endless bloody rolling mauls are a pain in the arsk.

    And then, of course, Lazy Dud Dutton could not even ensure that the ASADA Tribunal of Sports Death had a quorum.

  • 694
    Everything
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    shellbell:

    Are you referring to Keiren Jack?

  • 695
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    Should I discuss it with my Barrister?

    I try to avoid discussions with my Barrister for 2 reasons:
    1. I haven’t time to arrange a second mortgage.
    2. I don’t have a Barrister.

    You should allegedly piss off.

  • 696
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    shellbell

    Yes. He is a cracker when in full flight.

    Ominously, one son is a long term fan and he is muttering about the coach’s lack of game day flexibility.

  • 697
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    E
    Goodes.

  • 698
    Everything
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    Thats better ShowsOn! At least you seem capable of learning :devil:

  • 699
    imacca
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    Oh good. Palmers girl wants to bring back Nasho’s and cut the dole for all those young bludgers out there.

  • 700
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Who, on Q&A, is the militaristic idiot espousing turning our youf into wannabe sojers in case there is a war because we only have half an MCG’s worth of army?

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