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Federal Politics 2013-

Apr 13, 2014

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GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1024 comments

1,024 thoughts on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

  1. “@bencjenkins: How are we going to #protectourborders with TWICE the airports in Sydney? Pack of gallahs in charge I’ll tell you what.”

  2. Diogenes@967

    Doesn’t BOF have to pay tax on the $3000 bottle of wine?

    ABC TV News at Noon in Sydney reported it as worth $6,000 – said to be 1959 Grange – the same year as BOF was born – according to the report. Maybe two bottles @ $3k a pop ?

    BOF on the stand this arvo – was it declared on the Parliamentary register as well?

    Either way it is a very bad look and drags BOF down as well.

    What else has he taken and from whom – are his declartions accurate and up to date?

    Saw a quote recently which went –

    “The only person to enter Parliament with the right intent was Guy Fawkes”

  3. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 6m

    #Essential Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 (+1) ALP 50 (-1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5m

    #Essential Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 42 (0) ALP 37 (-1) GRN 10 (+1) PUP 4 (+1) #auspol

  4. Finally. Abbott gets a question on rail

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott ‘yes’ there is an opportunity to complete a rail loop through Western Syd via airport. Primarily State issue but more to say.”

  5. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m

    #Essential Poll Free Trade Agreement with Japan: Approve 52 Disapprove 13 #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

    #Essential Poll Are Free Trade Agreements good for Australia: Yes 49 No 11 #auspol

  6. “@latikambourke: PM Abbott says he wants to keep his commitments, says Govt’s most fundamental commitment was to fix the budget when asked about pensions.”

  7. No-one could accuse Essential of volatility in it polling, unlike the other pollsters recently. Whether or not Essential is good a picking up recent movement is another question.

  8. “@farrm51: “We will keep our commitments,” says PMAbbott. But says major commitment is to a surplus. Pensioners to keep carbon compo. Sounds ominous.”

  9. Victoria,

    [Acerbic Conehead

    Love it!]

    Glad you liked it. If it was good enough for Noah…

    Anyway, enjoy the rest of the day.

  10. Acerbic Conehead @ 996
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 1:03 pm | PERMALINK
    POM,

    [LOL.

    I presume the Royal Commission will be interviewing the little girl to get some evidence on how nasty unionists corrupt the young.]

    F*ck Yeah 😀

  11. Yesiree Bob

    I still have the 64 EH wagon I bought 25 years ago. Not for daily use but I take it to the country now & then. She likes an open road, not city traffic. Always attracts the odd train spotter.

  12. [954
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 11:42 am | PERMALINK
    briefly

    Perhaps it might spur a few small branches to amalgamate do they reach 300 members.]
    I think he probably means the number of members in an electorate.

    There are typically a number of local branches in an electorate and few would, on their own, have more than 100 members, with most well under this.

  13. Bazza & ICAC

    O’Farrell says he did not have a “partisan” interest in Australian Water but was interested in “land release”. The company had positioned itself as being able to unlock the supply of new housing developments by providing access to water and sewerage infrastructure.

    So all that’s needed for land release is pipes in the ground, for land not owned by AW… The BOF has lame excuse for meeting with AW spives

  14. Hi William.

    You mentioned that you do not track ReachTEL due to its unusual methodology.

    Just wondering what are the methodolgical issues you see with RTEL?