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Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

The latest monthly Nielsen poll finds Labor regaining the two-party lead, and the Greens at an all-time record high.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

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  • 51
    Gorilla
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    Am I right in thinking that the MoE is lower for a party polling at around the 15% level than it is for a party polling around 40%? Kevin? William?

  • 52
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    No, the opposite in fact. It’s below 2%.

  • 53
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    Sorry, I read that wrong. Yes, you were correct.

  • 54
    spur212
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    Summary of Nielsen

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/w9tdoZJBuf4

  • 55
    Jackol
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    Joyce outpolling Brandis in BTL might have been a residual National vote that wasn’t impressed by the LNP merger in Queensland.

  • 56
    dave
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    silmaj@2161

    He {Faber} predicts doom every year. I guess one year he will get it right.

    Yes Indeed. He is another media tart as well.

    The only thing is the “Sell in May and go away” thing is strongest in the second year of the US Presidential Cycle – ie this year.

    Doesn’t mean it will necessarily crash or go down etc – we will have to see – but the US markets have had a good run since 2009, due largely to QE and ultra low interest rates.

    US tech stocks are currently down 8% from early March highs and *may* well bounce in the coming week – but by how much and for how long?

    Mainly it means, set sensible stop losses and exit at that level if hit.

    If the US tech stocks continue their decline it needs to be watched carefully as it is the speculative end of the market which rolls over first – some of the big tech name have been declining for months.

    Locally, market leadership has also been narrowing for many months and is centered on high yielding, large cap stocks – particularly the Banks – they are the ones to watch for a local local decline. Local small cap stock are already broadly in decline.

    Set stops and act on them if needed.

  • 57
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    Jackol@55

    Joyce outpolling Brandis in BTL might have been a residual National vote that wasn’t impressed by the LNP merger in Queensland.

    I think it’s very likely National Party support issues were at the core of it.

  • 58
    Gorilla
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    Thanks William.

  • 59
    pedant
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    Jackol @ 55: Or, it might simply be that the voters perceived, arguably correctly as things are turning out, that Mr Joyce is smarter and more competent as a minister than Senator Brandeis, astonishing as that might seem.

  • 60
    crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    Brand is

    Pedant

  • 61
    pedant
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    crikey whitey @ 60:I think I am entitled at my age to enjoy the simple pleasure of irony from time to time.

  • 62
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    Everything,

    While I’ll admit some comments directed at you are unwarranted or unjustified, it’s a bit hard to respect your opinions when on issues such as the proposed changes to the RDA when you remain willfully ignorant of what the “problem” is, and for that matter had no idea what the details of the Bromberg decision/Bolt case were.

    Probably a month ago now I quoted sections 18C and 18D to the letter, linking to austlii for you and others to look for yourselves, which you ignored. Less than week later the argument flared again in which you indicated you didn’t know what the RDA said, and were informed by another commenter, then on another occasion briefly gave a detailed analysis of the relevant sections of the RDA, which you again ignored, then a forth time, that I’m aware of, you expressed the same false assertions about the RDA and its effects, to be yet again corrected and tonight you have indicated, yet again, you neither know nor care what the law actually is. For goodness sake it really isn’t that much to read. Perhaps it’s because of situations like this you get targeted as a partisan rather than the centrist you want people to believe you are

  • 63
    crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    Ooh.

  • 64
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    The highest ever Greens vote in Morgan is 15 which happened twice just after the 2010 election.

  • 65
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    Sorry, does anyone know whether the BTL voting was significantly higher than normal in the WA Senate by-election? If so, what were the percentages? About 2% of formal votes?

  • 66
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    The world must take radical steps to combat climate change, and begin right away – but if it does, the cost of a greener, healthier future will be surprisingly small.

    However if the world wishes to avoid ecological catastrophe, it will probably need new technologies that suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and bury it underground.

    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/un-calls-for-drastic-action-to-stop-climate-change-20140413-36lbc.html

  • 67
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    From last thread

    On the PPL for all the talk that its needed around here in the land of BMW’s and Mercs the past few years have seen something of a baby boom, thus i question if its even needed to encourage women to have a bubs.

    Access to child care and return to employment opportunities appear to be the big talking point around here.

    Not the need for a hand-out from Tone & co

  • 68
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    Will the U.S Market fall?

    I suspect it will have a fall particularly as the main driver of growth is withdrawn as the Federal Reserve tapers.

  • 69
    ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    YO! What up bitches?

  • 70
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    62....Bugler

    Very well said, Bugler. I would go further and suggest that E’s misrepresentation of the Eatock case is deliberate. It is essentially disingenuous.

  • 71
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    67.....mexicanbeemer

    Spot on.

  • 72
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Is Kezza2 around tonight?

  • 73
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    Thanks, briefly. It’s disappointing more than anything, rather than assessing where problems lie, Everything chooses to take a partisan position. I trust Everything is capable of far more than that. (For that matter it’s even opposed by moderate Liberals, so the concerns about Brandis’ tampering are hardly sectarian)

  • 74
    Rossmore
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    25th anniversary of the Hillsborough disaster today, when 96 Liverpudlians lost their lives at a football game.

    And the lying Murdoch press in the UK sank to a journalistic low and concocted front page headlines blaming the victims.

    Never bought a Murdoch title since.

  • 75
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Bugler@65

    Sorry, does anyone know whether the BTL voting was significantly higher than normal in the WA Senate by-election? If so, what were the percentages? About 2% of formal votes?

    This info isn’t available via the AEC yet as many of the votes are still “unapportioned”. Only 1.3% of the count is apportioned BTLs at this stage but this figure will certainly rise when more votes are apportioned.

  • 76
    cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    Btw, in the WA Senate rerun, is there any chance of Labor getting a 2nd seat?

  • 77
    Steve777
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    Really, PPL was one if Abbott’s brain farts, like knights & dames but far more expensive. The Liberal Party has been forced to absorb it with post hoc justifications, for example alleged productivity improvements.

    Normally right wingers want to improve productivity by cutting back employees’ bargaining power and squeezing their share of the cake. This goes completely against the grain for Abbott’s colleagues, especially Joe Hockey.

    I have never seen anyone attempt an analysis that demonstrates how much the supposed improvement in productivity will contribute to the economy. I think Abbott wanted to come up with something to counter his early problems with female voters, or perhaps it’s some sort of eugenics measure – ‘women of calibre’ sort of lets the cat out of the bag.

  • 78
    crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    Briefly

    xxxxx

  • 79
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    cud chewer@76

    Btw, in the WA Senate rerun, is there any chance of Labor getting a 2nd seat?

    No.

  • 80
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    Okay, stupid question time… what does “apportioned” mean? Is it votes that have been counted but haven’t had their preferences listed yet?

  • 81
    ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    Really, PPL was one if Abbott’s brain farts, like knights & dames but far more expensive. The Liberal Party has been forced to absorb it with post hoc justifications, for example alleged productivity improvements.

    I doubt the PPL scheme will pass the Senate given the way Clive Palmer attacked it on Lateline late last week.

    The Government may not have to do a backflip if they can just say that they couldn’t get it through the Senate.

  • 82
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    Bugler/73….The campaign to repeal or dismantle s18.c is not about freedom of speech or the content of the law. As E knows, this gibberish is just a pretext. The vigilante right want a trophy. E, CC and the other Libs are simply playing along.

  • 83
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    78
    crikey whitey

    Briefly

    xxxxx

    thanks cw….you’re a true sweetie!

  • 84
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    The Government may not have to do a backflip if they can just say that they couldn’t get it through the Senate.

    Of course then the media will write it up as a “failure”, just as they wrote up, for example, Fuel Watch as a failure, and Labor’s many attempts to get some traction with immigration laws as “failures”.

    Sorry. Just kidding.

  • 85
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    FFS, they were elected promising to “fix” public transport, spent three years fighting an ideological war against PT promoting the East-West Link panacea over everything else, and now an election’s coming they’ve suddenly realised they need to do something. I wonder how much is even planned or if it was just added in at the last minute for political reasons.

    A rail link to Melbourne airport will become a reality under a Victorian coalition government.

    During his address to the Victorian Liberal party's council meeting on Sunday, premier Denis Napthine said it was time the rail link was built.

    Napthine said the link would deliver efficient, high-capacity, regular services to the airport.

    The project would be outlined in next month’s state budget, he said.

    "I'm pleased to announce that my government will build the much-needed Melbourne airport rail link," he told the conference.

    "This project has been on the books for over 40 years.

    "It is time this rail link was built."

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/13/denis-napthine-announces-rail-link-between-melbourne-airport-and-city

  • 86
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Briefly,

    Oh, I agree. I do think there is an element of the Liberals believe the culture wars is a vote winner, and they’re finding out the hard way it isn’t

  • 87
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Bugler@80

    Okay, stupid question time… what does “apportioned” mean? Is it votes that have been counted but haven’t had their preferences listed yet?

    It’s votes that have been counted and reported as being for a specific party, but haven’t been assigned beyond that level yet. They could be BTLs for a given candidate or ATLs.

  • 88
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    Re section 18.c.. the right to be “a bigot ” has been a favourite topic of the IPA and notably Tim, Wilson the new Human Rights Commissioner…based on”Libertarian” ideas imported from the USA…where such ideas are enjoying a vogue on the Right

    They don’t go over well here and this may be a reason for the poor Govt polling

  • 89
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    86
    Bugler

    Briefly,

    Oh, I agree. I do think there is an element of the Liberals believe the culture wars is a vote winner, and they’re finding out the hard way it isn’t

    They have so little understanding of how out of touch they are.

  • 90
    imacca
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    I doubt the PPL scheme will pass the Senate given the way Clive Palmer attacked it on Lateline late last week.

    Will Clive matter if the Greens vote with the Coalition on this one??

    http://greens.org.au/better-paid-parental-leave

    All :monkey: has to do is cut the limit from $150k to $100k and the Greens will be on board. They could easily do that and then trumpet how wunderfully fiscaly responsible they are, what a hard decision it was, and then Toolman and his ilk can wax lyrical about :monkey: being a great negotiator and strong man in getting his signature policy through. :(

  • 91
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    KB,

    Thanks, the AEC publishes to them as “ticket” and “non-ticket” voting, correct? So based on the WA results from 2013 it would be something around 4%… (I think I’ve grasped it now…)

  • 92
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    The 18C thing is silly. There is nothing that I can see wrong with that law as it is and Bolt brought it all on himself by being grossly careless about the facts underlying his claims. Had he made some effort to get his facts straight he would have been fine but then his opinion wouldn’t have been supported by them and he might have had to think about what he was saying.

    I’ve dealt with real threats to free speech, like when the Tasmanian Lower House passed a variant of 18C that extended to political and religious opinion as protected attributes and that lacked any of the federal defences. That would have made Tasmania no longer a free political society and we would have been an international laughingstock. I helped to get that one killed off by the Upper House and save the lazy complacent Tasmanian left from its own stupidity. Especially after that I can’t take the idea that there is any useful principle of free speech at stake in the “Bolt laws” thing seriously.

  • 93
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    Bugler@91

    KB,

    Thanks, the AEC publishes to them as “ticket” and “non-ticket” voting, correct? So based on the WA results from 2013 it would be something around 4%… (I think I’ve grasped it now…)

    Yes that sounds about right for 2013.

  • 94
    lefty e
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    Wu-tang!

    Here we see the full absurdity of the return to imperial honours flushing through the electorate,and oh look, up to 12% agree with Abbott’s nineteenth century social darwinism.

    “Yes, lets re-boot racial discrimination!” said almost no Australian voters, since 1968.

  • 95
    Bugler
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    Briefly,

    I had the distinct impression after the NSW state election that the Liberals were moving to a more realistic view of “race” within contemporary Australia. Recent events have proven me rather wrong. (Weirdly, it’s their Vietnamese-Australian candidates that seem to do the worst). Anecdoteally, some people in the area I live aren’t liking that African-Australians and Asian-Australians are moving further and further into the outer suburbs/bush, and I think that’s the angst some (I highlight the qualifier for those who missed it) of the Liberals want to feed off. It isn’t an ethical position, or one that that will hold in the long term

  • 96
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    I would be very curious to see the state breakdowns backing up that 17 for the Greens. Very curious indeed.

  • 97
    Steve777
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    Re Bugler @86 – it’s all part of keeping the blue collar ‘One Nation’ demographic happy. The same demographic who obsess over ‘boats’. If you talk to them they’ll say something like ‘our freedoms are being taken away’ – no doubt repeating Alan Jones or some like turkey.

    It’s not that they’re wicked or stupid for the most part. They are mostly good people, who lacked opportunities in education and career, who are uncomfortable with immigration and multiculturalism and maybe a bit unenlightened in some areas. The demographic I grew up in but my parents saw that I had opportunities.

    The Liberals cynically such people while convincing them to vote against their interests.

  • 98
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    Had he made some effort to get his facts straight

    Conservatives had a god given right not to worry at all about facts, because facts have a known left bias.

  • 99
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    Nielsen has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology).

  • 100
    Bugler
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 12:06 am | Permalink

    Steve777,

    it’s all part of keeping the blue collar ‘One Nation’ demographic happy. The same demographic who obsess over ‘boats’. If you talk to them they’ll say something like ‘our freedoms are being taken away’ – no doubt repeating Alan Jones or some like turkey.

    In my experience, those beliefs are often skin deep. When challenged, or even by merely indicating I don’t agree or am uninterested in the topic, the tone changes somewhat. A lot of the younger guys I work with will openly tell me they don’t like what one of the more… politically incorrect… colleagues’ opinions on non-white races, “faggots”, etc.

    I find it’s usually easy to counter, depending on the person, an effective method is to pretend you don’t understand a racist joke and watch them squirm, if they have no shame, like the aforementioned, when I had enough I asked if he’d ever said that to their face. That put a stop to it quite quickly.

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