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Essential Research: 50-50

Following on from the weekend’s radical Nielsen result, Essential Research records only slight changes in voting intention this week. Also featured: support for campaign advertising caps, the minimum wage and fair trade agreements, and a wary view of Palmer United’s Senate balance of power.

This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average has the parties at level pegging after two weeks with Labor leading 51-49, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 37% and the Coalition steady at 42%. The surge to the Greens in Nielsen is not replicated, their vote up only one point to 10%, with Palmer United likewise up a point to 4%. Other findings from the poll:

• A semi-regular question on leader attributes records a slight decline in sentiment towards Bill Shorten since the question was last asked in October, with “intelligent” and “understands the problems facing Australia” down six points and “arrogant”, “superficial”, “erratic” and “narrow-minded” respectively up five, six, seven and eight. Tony Abbott’s ratings are somewhat more negative, with “arrogant” up four points and “out of touch with ordinary people” up five.

• Seventy-seven per cent oppose abolition of the minimum wage, with only 15% supportive.

• Eighty-four per cent of respondents were in favour of spending caps on campaign advertising by political parties, and 78% for caps on advertising by third parties. Opinion here was consistent by party support.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of the free-trade agreement with Japan, versus 13% who disapprove, while the respective numbers for free-trade agreements generally are 49% and 11%. Coalition supporters were most in favour on both counts, while Greens supporters were most opposed.

• Thirty-two per cent think Palmer United’s balance of power position in the Senate bad for democracy versus 27% for good and 19% for no difference. Major party supporters recorded similar responses, but 62% of those in the “others” category were approving.

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  • 101
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

    @guardian: Teachers left to pick up pieces from cuts to youth mental health servicess | Mary O’Hara: http://t.co/yrc1pWQyQA

  • 102
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

    If BOF is forced to resign over this, Mike Baird will be sending a $3K bottle of Grange to Nick di G.

  • 103
    dave
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    ruawake@99


    Maybe the courier left it on the front step, after all it’s only worth $3000.


    The fee for delivery was $129, it was signed for.

    Probably also insured for that amount.

  • 104
    dave
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    kakuru@102

    If BOF is forced to resign over this, Mike Baird will be sending a $3K bottle of Grange to Nick di G.

    So will Labor – and a bottle of vinegar to abbott.

  • 105
    liyana
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    I think BOF might be a bit moderate for the hard right Murdochians so this ICAC thing is very interesting.

    Badgerys creek? I hope so, as long as they have public transport links- otherwise it might be a did. I notice nothing about train links has been mentioned….

    And Sydney? Big city-small town….

  • 106
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    Bottlegate might be damaging to BO’F's political stature, but he won’t be forced out over it.

    Although I too am interested in how Murdoch’s minions tackle the revelations, and also BO’F's enemies in the NSW Libs. The hard right were made to suffer greatly to be forced to the point of letting BO’F take the top job in the first place and will have been looking for any opportunity to cut him down.

  • 107
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    dave:

    So will Labor – and a bottle of vinegar to abbott.

    :-D

    Actually, it might be better if BOF stays on. Baird may prove to be a more popular Premier.

    The last Lib Premier to resign because of ICAC was Nick Greiner. His replacement (John Fahey) was far more popular, and nearly won the election for the Coalition.

  • 108
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    AC

    Is this going to turn into a massive hangover for BOF? Maybe even his crucifixion?

    Yes. I don’t think De Geronimo will be able to bottle it up any longer!

  • 109
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    What a corker.

    The Liberals are desperately trying to put their corruption genie back into the bottle of Grange.

    Is Grange Arthur’s favourite tipple?

  • 110
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    The fee for delivery was $129, it was signed for.

    Call in the handwriting experts.

  • 111
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    Grange hangovers are the best.

  • 112
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

    The Liberals are giving the Sergeant a major hammering:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgcxGFmYyPs

  • 113
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

    Could this be the NSW Liberals’ Great Dividing Grange?

  • 114
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

    Corkage gets you every time.

  • 115
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    L
    Grange Rover country?

  • 116
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    I notice nothing about train links has been mentioned….

    The train link is almost there, don’t expect too much, Tony doesn’t do trains.

  • 117
    dave
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    liyana@105

    I think BOF might be a bit moderate for the hard right Murdochians so this ICAC thing is very interesting.

    Could well be something in that – its a comment the tories have put out themselves.

    Doubt if Baird would get it, but BOF is damaged, even destroyed if it can be proven he got the Grange.

  • 118
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    If BoF resigns, I wonder whether our PB Libs will feel sedimental over it.

  • 119
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    You have to wonder at BOF’s judgement. Why TF would a newly elected Premier of the country’s most populous state, elected with a thumping majority that could well see his govt serve at least 3 terms sell out over a measly bottle of plonk?

    Unbelievably concerning how easily our elected members can be swayed by vested interests.

  • 120
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    B

    Yes! and if the Libs keep to this form, the Grange Drover’s Dog could win the next election.

  • 121
    deblonay
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    Vic and a 2nd airport at Avalon
    +++++++++++
    The Avalon airport near Geelong… a very modest one,has just won a deal froma China airline to run regular flights from China to Avalon,..which currently has just some Virgin flights to Sydney

    The modest infrastructure could have a good deal spent on it…and it lies near the Geelong-Melbourne-Warnambool rail line…a very busy service every hour ,and more in peak times
    A rail-link into the Terminal would give a good link into Melbourne,at present only a periodic bus operates
    The airport is useful for Geelong/Western District people and those on Melb’s. western side ,Werribee etc
    Abbott will be under pressure to assist it as Napthine has made much of it’s potential…and it is election year

  • 122
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    Confessions

    You have to wonder at BOF’s judgement. Why TF would a newly elected Premier of the country’s most populous state, elected with a thumping majority that could well see his govt serve at least 3 terms sell out over a measly bottle of plonk?

    Hubris. We are seeing the same thing in Qld.

  • 123
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    Apart, perhaps, from selling it on ebay or Gumtree I can’t imagine what I’d do with a $3k bottle of wine. I don’t like wine and couldn’t justify drinking anything so expensive. It would make more sense to crash my car for fun.

    Really, if I were open to be bribed, I’d sooner just have the cash. If I were Premier of NSW, I’d laugh at a $3k bribe, assuming I were interested in being bribed. Nothing south of $200k would get my attention and then of course I’d have to be able to believe I could get away with it.

    These spivs really do surprise me.

  • 124
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    If BO’F resigns I will feel sentimental (I see what you did there) over it.

    The NSW ALP are in no fit state, and do not deserve, to be back in government, and the alternative to a moderate B’OF Lib government is a hard right conservative/religious Lib government. Some temporary inner glow from political schadenfreude is not worth that.

  • 125
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    BOF says he never got the wine. Would he lie?

  • 126
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    Fran –

    Really, if I were open to be bribed, I’d sooner just have the cash.

    I’m sure you’re probably well aware that this is kind of the point – the people we are talking about wouldn’t have seen a $3000 bottle of wine as a bribe, it’s just part of the greasing-the-wheels culture of ‘little’ gifts and schmoozing that permeates that group.

  • 127
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    Andrew Greene ‏@AndrewBGreene 1h
    The member for Lindsay @FionaScottMP is keeping a pretty low profile post PM's #badgeryscreek announcement

    Seriously people have been pitching fits about a second Sydney airport for the best part of 40 years now. It hasn’t happened yet, so there’s no reason to imagine we’ll ever see one in the near future, let alone the next 40 years.

  • 128
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    Lynchpin:

    I kind of got the impression that BOF was more capable than Newman. I can see Newman getting caught up in such a scandal, but thought BOF was a bit smarter than that.

  • 129
    Outsider
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    Let’s wait and see. With interest! BOF is either very confident, or…

  • 130
    Dee
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    Confessions

    Me thinks the plonk may well be the tip of the iceberg.

  • 131
    Tricot
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    RD@48

    Like you I agonise of “Where to from here” for Labor.

    However, Bottlegate might be a bit of gift for Labor – if and when the MM has the “bottle” to actually pull the cork on the issue.

    Terrible puns!

  • 132
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

    One bit of Nick Di G’s testimony today that has missed the msm. He stated again that the $5,000 paid to Newman was a prerequisite for meeting him. No $5,000 donation, no meeting.

  • 133
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

    ruawake – would/should the CMC have anything to say about that?

  • 134
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    it’s just part of the greasing-the-wheels culture of ‘little’ gifts and schmoozing that permeates that group.

    The issue isn’t whether it’s a bribe or seen as a gift or whatever but that BOF, newly elected NSW Premier lacked the judgement to declare said gift. He should’ve known how that would’ve looked, ICAC inquiry or not.

  • 135
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    I wonder whether any of the Grange trickled down on pensioners.

  • 136
    Tricot
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    Confessions @127

    If the first sod were turned tomorrow, all other things being equal the project will be late and over budget.

    I will take a punt on 2028 for the first flight, depending on how big the airport is to be and who will actually want to fly in and out of the place.

    We are not living in HK and even London can’t make up its mind what to do to relieve the pressure on Heathrow.

  • 137
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    Dee

    Confessions

    Me thinks the plonk may well be the tip of the iceberg.

    Or even….

    the plonk may well be the tipple of the iceberg

  • 138
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    Dee:

    Hubris is really the only explanation IMO.

    I often wonder whether Barnett would’ve been the same had the Liberals won a majority in their own right here for their first term. Having to govern with the support of the Nationals seemed to keep Barnett somewhat constained.

    He certainly lost all that restraint when they won a majority second term, with pre-election pledges falling by the wayside like nine pins.

  • 139
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    “@eleanorbloom: Dastyari trying to garner as to whether Treasury have been asked to look into increased pension age modelling.”

  • 140
    Dee
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    Any smart crook, wheeling and dealing with like minded folk and politicians would keep meticulous records of gifts, transactions and communications to cover their own arse.

    Wine corks and warning shots! :)

  • 141
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    ruawake – would/should the CMC have anything to say about that?

    What CMC? Newman has cut its balls off and turned it into an organised crime fighter. No more corruption inquiries in Qld thank you very much. :(

  • 142
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    Barry O’Farrell becomes Bottle-O Farrell

  • 143
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    Q: Mr Abbott, does the NSW Premier enjoy your full confidence? Should he stand aside?

  • 144
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    Tricot:

    Personally I’ve never seen what the fuss is about. Sydney needs a second airport, so just get it done. There will always be that squeaky wheel opposition to it, just as there is with any major infrastructure project.

    But that said, I’d be surprised if this announcement actually goes anywhere. It seemed to be an attempted distraction from BOF at ICAC more than anything.

  • 145
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    Just curious, but does anyone know whether Penfolds is still using cork for its Grange releases, or have they moved to screw tops like everyone else?

    I would never spend that sort of money on a single bottle of wine (esp not red wine – yech!), so am not likely to ever be in a situation to see first hand!

  • 146
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    It’s just Farry o’Barrel staying true to type.

  • 147
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    Today’s Mumble on the govt’s handling of the RDA amendments, and using Nielsen polling as a reference point for wider community sentiment on race matters.
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/wouldnt_have_happened_under_howard/

  • 148
    Atticus
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    Given that Crikey.com.au is the last oasis of objective, play-no-favourites, political commentary in this country, it will be easy for the punditocracy of the MSM Empires to make certain that the ICAC Grange gift inquiry can’t possibly constitute more than a small speed-bump on Premier O’Farrell’s downhill coast to another landslide election victory.

    All the same, my Schadenfreude Rating for today’s ICAC hearing (using the universally accepted David & Margaret Scale) is ****1/2. :)

  • 149
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    Re GrangeGate, it is good to see Icac seeking Clarety.

  • 150
    dave
    Posted Tuesday, April 15, 2014 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    victoria@125

    BOF says he never got the wine. Would he lie?

    He may have been tempted to drink the plonk the night he got it, thinking who will ever know.

    As it stands we just don’t know. But who knows what records ICAC have or what they can get.

    The BOF phone call to Di Girolamo the same night the booze is alledged to have been delivered is a worry though.

    BOF’s cannot recall what the call was about but will Di Girolamo say it was a thank you and if so where does BOF go from there.

    Its a worry – for some anyway.

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