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Federal Politics 2013-

Apr 17, 2014

BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor

This week's Nielsen result prompts a startling shift to the Greens in the weekly poll aggregate, which in turn drives a solid move to Labor on two-party preferred.

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Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point. Only a small share of the gain comes at the expense of Labor, who have accordingly made a strong gain on two-party preferred and are in majority government territory on the seat projection. A further point of interest with respect to the Nielsen poll is that the two-party preferred response on respondent-allocated preferences, which is not published by Fairfax, is at 54.5-45.5 considerably stronger for Labor than the headline result from previous election preferences. This may reflect a swelling in Greens support from the ranks of disaffected Labor identifiers, and a consequent increase in the Greens preference flow to Labor in comparison with the 2013 election result – which may in turn suggest the headline two-party result from the poll flattered the Coalition a little.

The other aspect of the latest BludgerTrack result which may raise an eyebrow is the strength of the Labor swing in Queensland, which also blew out excessively in January before moderating considerably thereafter. The Queensland breakdown from this week’s Nielsen played its part, showing Labor ahead 53-47 for a swing of around 10%. However, in this case the Nielsen is not out on a limb, providing the model with one of five Queensland data points from the past four weeks which all show Labor in the lead, with two-party results ranging from 51.1% to 56.5% (keeping in mind that sample sizes are in some cases below 200). The scattered state results provided by Morgan are not included in the model, but its poll release last week reported that Labor held a lead in Queensland of 51-49.

Nielsen also provides new data points for leadership ratings, and in keeping with the general weakness of the poll for the Coalition, their addition to the model puts Bill Shorten’s net approval rating back in front of Tony Abbott’s, and returns the narrowing trajectory to the preferred prime minister trendlines.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1593 comments

1,593 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor

  1. poroti

    bemused

    Such “exotic cuisine” contact only happened after leaving Sheepens land. A proper Hangi is still one of the best meals Eva.
    A hangi in Quinceland. Totally love the address “Dead Horse Lane, Dalby, Queensland.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-cci7PuvzY

  2. bemused

    don@1493

    Diogenes@1468

    Teachers much prefer dissimulation to outright lying. Most of the report cards they write are masterpieces of dissimulation, which they have become expert at to avoid telling the truth.

    Never a truer word was spoken.

    I am a long term chalkie.

    As one example, you couldn’t say that a student didn’t hand in assignments – if they didn’t hand them in, then it was your business to make them do so.

    How, I have no idea, since the lash has been disallowed in the teaching profession for some time now.

    Instead, I used to say “J….. does not always hand her assignments in on time”

    In some cases, I have been waiting for twenty years for those assignments to be handed in, but I live in hope.

    Well at least one educationalist has the answers to such problems. 😀
    http://www.frankdando.com.au/
    Check it out.
    Don’t do your work during the week? No problem, see you Saturday.

  3. don

    zoomster@1465

    But why do I have to like curry? Why can’t I just not eat it?

    Of course you don’t have to eat it.

    But just the barest hint of curry can enliven a very ordinary dish.

    I like goulash and other such stews, and I find that a small amount of curry in a dish that does not actually require it, maybe what is for example ostensibly irish stew, can add flavour without hotness.

    If you do make stews, try adding a quarter of a teaspoon of dried curry powder to a big pot of stew. It won’t make it in the least hot, but it will add flavour.

    Another good thing is to add a half teaspoon of one of the bottled curry pastes to a stew, again it does not make it hot, but it gives zing to a bland dish.

    But an eye watering curry can be a thing of beauty.

  4. kezza2

    [psyclaw
    Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 7:06 pm | PERMALINK
    Kezza

    Don’t kid yourself.

    You didn’t “draw me out”.

    Nor is the lying I am referring to only about sexual matters.]

    Oh, don’t kid yourself, yourself.

    Ask yourself why, so many hours after I had asked you about it, that’s all you came up with? It’s pathetic.

    You still haven’t answered my question.

    You asserted that there are some questions that always elicit a lie.

    What are they?

    Or were you lying?

    Your answer that some professions do misdeeds against a given philosophy isn’t a question. Or an answer.

    What are the actual questions.

    If you can’t give the questions, then just say so.

  5. citizen

    [George Brandis says people who say the science is settled on climate change are “ignorant and medieval”.]

    Brandis is believed also to be challenging mathematicians who state dogmatically that the square root of 9 is never 5.

    He believes that they are also ignorant and medieval, and that they need a strong lecture from Piers Ackerman on allowing free speech.

  6. bemused

    poroti@1494

    bemused

    Such “exotic cuisine” contact only happened after leaving Sheepens land. A proper Hangi is still one of the best meals Eva.
    A hangi in Quinceland. Totally love the address “Dead Horse Lane, Dalby, Queensland.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-cci7PuvzY

    I was introduced to that cuisine on the picket line during the Patricks dispute.

    A bunch of huge Maori’s rocked up and put it on for all comers. I think they even fed the cops, or at least some of them.

  7. Just Me

    [1477
    poroti

    Just Me

    Edit needed.

    “Ah, the joys of a small pond puddle.” 🙂 ]

    Geez, you know how to crush a man’s dreams. 🙁

    😉

    [That said , my time in Darwin and the NT remains one of life’s best EVA times.]

    It can be a nice little puddle at times.

    Just about to hit the best time of year here, early-mid dry. I will think of you all down the southern ways, freezing, while I decide if it is cold enough to shut the front door and break out my long sleeved shirt. Happened nearly three times last dry. 😛

  8. don

    bemused@1495

    don@1493

    Diogenes@1468


    Teachers much prefer dissimulation to outright lying. Most of the report cards they write are masterpieces of dissimulation, which they have become expert at to avoid telling the truth.


    Never a truer word was spoken.

    I am a long term chalkie.

    As one example, you couldn’t say that a student didn’t hand in assignments – if they didn’t hand them in, then it was your business to make them do so.

    How, I have no idea, since the lash has been disallowed in the teaching profession for some time now.

    Instead, I used to say “J….. does not always hand her assignments in on time”

    In some cases, I have been waiting for twenty years for those assignments to be handed in, but I live in hope.


    Well at least one educationalist has the answers to such problems.
    http://www.frankdando.com.au/
    Check it out.
    Don’t do your work during the week? No problem, see you Saturday.

    I note the following:

    [Our enrolment is capped at twenty four students. With four teachers, the teacher/ pupil ratio is low, and allows for individual attention ensuring all children progress.]

    With one teacher to six students, I can make any system, no matter how stupid, work.

    The trick is to make kids love coming to your class when there are twenty or thirty of them.

    I can make that work. Enthusiasm, positive reinforcement, don’t take any bullshit, fair but strict, and kids respect you and the education they receive.

    Mostly.

  9. Just Me

    [1482
    lizzie

    But I thought that Giles’ lot just won a mini election. Now it seems that was an outlier.]

    A mini-election, followed by a mini-honeymoon. Looks statistically clean to me. 😉

  10. poroti

    bemused

    [I was introduced to that cuisine on the picket line during the Patricks dispute.]
    One of my life’s WTF? moments occurred during that dispute. When it looked like the cops were moving in I ended up in the front row in Freo locking arms with Carmen Lawrence.
    She had back then and before been slagged off to the highest by Mordor Media and I’d accepted that. I became a fan of hers because she turned up on the front line in Freo time after time in the early hours of the morning. It was cold and miserable and there woz zero meeja there but she turned up. It was also when I became Vote 1 Combet. He also turned up in the dark of the night to talk to us.

  11. poroti

    Just Me

    [Just about to hit the best time of year here, early-mid dry]
    Snap ! Love the Dry but even better when it is still green and lush.

  12. bemused

    don@1501

    bemused@1495

    don@1493


    Diogenes@1468


    Teachers much prefer dissimulation to outright lying. Most of the report cards they write are masterpieces of dissimulation, which they have become expert at to avoid telling the truth.



    Never a truer word was spoken.

    I am a long term chalkie.

    As one example, you couldn’t say that a student didn’t hand in assignments – if they didn’t hand them in, then it was your business to make them do so.

    How, I have no idea, since the lash has been disallowed in the teaching profession for some time now.

    Instead, I used to say “J….. does not always hand her assignments in on time”

    In some cases, I have been waiting for twenty years for those assignments to be handed in, but I live in hope.


    Well at least one educationalist has the answers to such problems.
    http://www.frankdando.com.au/
    Check it out.
    Don’t do your work during the week? No problem, see you Saturday.


    I note the following:


    Our enrolment is capped at twenty four students. With four teachers, the teacher/ pupil ratio is low, and allows for individual attention ensuring all children progress.


    With one teacher to six students, I can make any system, no matter how stupid, work.

    The trick is to make kids love coming to your class when there are twenty or thirty of them.

    I can make that work. Enthusiasm, positive reinforcement, don’t take any bullshit, fair but strict, and kids respect you and the education they receive.

    Mostly.
    Frank takes the recalcitrants that have been tossed out of normal schools and rehabilitates them to the point where they can successfully return to a normal school.

    This is a much better outcome than would otherwise occur.

    Focus is on lots of sport and exercise plus a limited number of core subjects.

  13. bemused

    poroti@1503

    bemused


    I was introduced to that cuisine on the picket line during the Patricks dispute.


    One of my life’s WTF? moments occurred during that dispute. When it looked like the cops were moving in I ended up in the front row in Freo locking arms with Carmen Lawrence.
    She had back then and before been slagged off to the highest by Mordor Media and I’d accepted that. I became a fan of hers because she turned up on the front line in Freo time after time in the early hours of the morning. It was cold and miserable and there woz zero meeja there but she turned up. It was also when I became Vote 1 Combet. He also turned up in the dark of the night to talk to us.

    My interesting experience on the picket line occurred when my boss rocked up to join the picket.

    I had gone there with a mate from work and we got the shock of our lives when the boss turned up, thinking we might be in some strife. Shock number 2 was when he joined us!

    You never can tell where some people stand.

  14. Steve777

    George Brandis says people who say the science is settled on climate change are “ignorant and medieval”.

    No George, people are exercising their right of free speech to tell climate change deniers that they’re talking crap. No one is saying that they are not allowed to say what they think, but they don’t have a right to be listened to in respectful silence.

  15. confessions

    [Just about to hit the best time of year here, early-mid dry]

    I always preferred the wet to the dry. Not the build up/down, but the actual wet season itself. The dry season used to play havoc with my (then undiagnosed) asthma, esp with all the fires out bush.

  16. ruawake

    Funny how Tony promised to link Defence Super to male earnings before the election, now Joe wants to remove the index for all other pensions.

    I wonder how he talks his way out of this dilemma?

  17. psyclaw

    Kezza #1497

    Noted.

    Motivation to continue dialogue: Zero

    Reason 1: Waste of time and energy

    Reason 2: Zero tolerance for personal abuse tonight

    Reason 3: More unicorns on display than even in Mod Libs repetoire.

  18. Just Me

    [A proper Hangi is still one of the best meals Eva.]

    Damn right. 🙂

    Solar ovens can do a very good imitation. Had one for a while. Did some very nice full roasts in it.

  19. poroti

    confessions

    Death to “The Build Up” . It be horrible to the max.

  20. bemused

    ruawake@1509

    Funny how Tony promised to link Defence Super to male earnings before the election, now Joe wants to remove the index for all other pensions.

    I wonder how he talks his way out of this dilemma?

    Lie?

  21. kezza2

    I recall dad and my uncle, a Jesuit priest, having a big argument about aborigines. This was in the early 90s, just after Kennett had decided that our dog kennels weren’t even free of takeover.

    Dad was furious about it. He’d found some Aboriginal artefacts, stone axes, grinding stones, etc, down at the creek, our creek. Had been ours to access for 50 years.

    He’d told me he was going to hide them, or throw them in the rubbish. I tried to convince him not to do either. But I wasn’t sure what he’d do.

    Jesuit Priest Uncle came to dinner (well, it was lunch, but anyway) and, as hysterically usual, Uncle had the only napkin – plus a ring, napkin that is.

    After a leisurely lunch, when Uncle touched his lips multiple times with the napkin, and some desultory conversation, the topic turned to terra nullius.

    Now, dad and Uncle had cleared that land with their own bare hands. Their dad, my grandad had been too ill but he’d directed his two sons to rid the land of ti-tree.

    And they did. They grubbed up, by hand, every bloody last one of the remnants of the Koowee Swamp that had invaded the 200 acres at Nar Nar Goon.

    But Uncle hadn’t lived with us, or near us, for over 35 years. He’d been in Rome, and India, and then Adelaide. Suddenly he was among us again. I innocently asked him about this spot on our land, named after him. It was four gum trees. In a triangle paddock.

    And he told me, at the luncheon table, that he’d planted them in remembrance of the true owners of the land. And he said, “I can almost see a massacre here. And it pains me to know that I have somehow been involved in depriving these people of their land.”

    Dad went ballistic. Uncle Jesuit and Dad had the biggest bloody fight I’ve ever seen. Uncle being his quiet psyclaw self against dad’s outraged righteousness.

    The single righteousness versus the multiple righteousness.
    A sight to behold.

    Dad couldn’t hit Uncle, him being a man of god and all, despite granddad having bequeathed a fifth of his property to the bloody church on Uncle’s behald, which sent our family into debt. And before we knew it, Uncle’s car was disappearing down the driveway.

    He never darkened our doorway again. Dad had a long bloody memory. But we saw Uncle heaps of times before he died. Dad just didn’t know about it.

  22. confessions

    poroti:

    The build up is THE worst time of the year in the tropics. I would never live up north again. Ever.

  23. Everything

    [psyclaw
    …..Reason 3: More unicorns on display than even in Mod Libs repertoire.]

    HEY!

    I AINT EVEN HERE (well right now I am, but I wasn’t just before I was…..if you know what I mean?)

    Do folk talk about me a lot when I am not around? :devil:

  24. kezza2

    [psyclaw
    Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 7:48 pm | PERMALINK
    Kezza #1497

    Noted.

    Motivation to continue dialogue: Zero

    Reason 1: Waste of time and energy

    Reason 2: Zero tolerance for personal abuse tonight

    Reason 3: More unicorns on display than even in Mod Libs repetoire.]

    1. Righto. Well you’re obviously not a psych for the abused.

    2. And, you obviously lied about the questions.

    3. Not your fault if you can’ distinguish between genuine questions and personal abuse.

    4. Have a rest. Else you might really start to see unicorns.

  25. Thomas. Paine.

    [George Brandis says people who say the science is settled on climate change are “ignorant and medieval”.]

    Brandis in a past time I am sure would also say…

    ‘. people who say the science is settled on cigarette smoking and lung cancer are “ignorant and medieval”.’

    One thing about the far right of politics is that they are more than willing to sacrifice lives in the thousands and millions to protect their business mates….who pay donate to their party and get them good jobs after ..maybe.

  26. kezza2

    psyclaw

    Oh, and I’m sorry that I said one upon a time that you had dessicated balls. I was wrong.

    I don’t think you have any.

  27. briefly

    K and her siblings had a serious dilemma as far as I can see. If they had taken the strawberry and admitted to it, they were certain to cop a beating. This could excuse lying. Yet, by making a false denial, the child that had taken the strawberry increased the chances that the other children would also be beaten.

    Neither truths nor untruths could achieve a satisfactory result for K and her siblings. Arbitrary and cruel punishment would be dispensed in either case. In this instance, honest answers were strangely irrelevant to the underlying ethical issue and hark back to the medieval practice of trial by water.

    In K’s circumstances, she would easily have been excused for asking what use could come from honesty when its ruthless pursuit caused more harm than good.

    Nevertheless, we could still object to this reasoning by insisting the child should not have taken the strawberry in the first place – that dishonesty by one child harmed the whole family – and that the culprit should at least be identified if only for their own benefit. Yet this claim is also problematic. How can it make sense to expose and attach blame to a four year old for taking something as inconsequential as a strawberry, or, if it comes to the point, for any other dishonest act?

    In the aftermath of the ICAC hearings this week, many were prepared to treat O’Farrell’s failure to declare the gift of a bottle of Grange as if it were no more than the taking of a single berry: an omission of almost no consequence. In this, such observers were prepared to allow the Premier the same latitude they would readily grant a small child.

    I think this leads to the real ethical issue in both these very different sets of circumstances. The issue is trust. We need to be able to trust ourselves and each other. Personal contentment, successful interpersonal relationships, fair exchange, respect for the law and a freely ordered society are only possible where trust exists and is protected.

    Looking at things this way, it is easy to see the real ethical violations in K’s family were not the possible acts of dishonesty of small children but the use of violence and the creation of fear by their parents.

    It is equally easy to see O’Farrell’s conduct as consisting of much more than mistaken recollections about a minor gift. Whether inadvertently or not, he breached the standard of behaviour that is overtly accepted by all those who hold office on trust. Following from his own boastful words, O’Farrell quite clearly could not be relied on to perform his duty in relation to even seemingly minor matters from which he gained a personal benefit. This begs the further question: if apparently small observances meant so little, how could he be trusted on the genuinely big ones.

    Perhaps these stories also illustrate that trust is strangely indivisible and, once lost, may be deeply missed for many a long year.

  28. zoidlord

    George Brandis really say “ignorant and medieval” ?

    Then why don’t Coalition Party have a Science Minister?

    I think I know which one is “ignorant and medieval”.

  29. bemused

    kezza2@1519

    psyclaw

    Oh, and I’m sorry that I said one upon a time that you had dessicated balls. I was wrong.

    I don’t think you have any.

    Back on a charm offensive tonight kezza2?

  30. Tom L

    Hopefully George B has been instructed to think about what he’s done over Easter.

    Whoever it was in cabinet who was telling reporters GB had drunk the right wing loo laid was on the money. He’s in tune with the nutjobs at the Oz with the persecution complex. I thought the Libs were supposed I have a sixth sense for what the average Australian was thinking?

    So sad to see a man at his age mentally deteriorating.

  31. Thomas. Paine.

    [Poroti …..

    John Pilger writes today in Counterpunch of what he calls “The Strangelove effect”
    In simple terms he says the warmongering Neo-cons would be prepared to risk a nucleur war with Russia and China to preserve US hegemony,and will even pretend that such a nucleur war would be “limited” in effect
    a terrible thought
    Oddly Craig Paul Roberts,,also Reagan’
    ‘s Tres and a solid Republican now says that the USA menaces the human race an amzing statemen]

    These oligarchs believe they are immune from consequences, that they god pulling the strings of nations and military power….they fear not great conflicts, and think they can make profit from way no matter who wins/loses…they always win if they control industry and money.

    Their arrogance grows in the manner that absolute power corrupts absolutely. They maybe deluding themselves so much that they believe they can have a ‘limited’ nuclear conflict and win big time from it, always looking to increase their power and wealth.

    They are so used to having the US create wars and coups all around the world.. with no consequence to themselves that they don’t care if a long shot fails..its cost them personally nothing. So long as the curtain isn’t pulled back on them.

    So, indeed these fools may not be as worried as they should be about somebody launching a nuclear missile.

  32. psyclaw

    Mod Lib

    I know it was an oblique compliment but I was praising you!

    To me, you are no longer the unicorn champ 🙂

    Now I’m off to find my balls.

  33. Thomas. Paine.

    So many parasites now hang of the US machine that it is bankrupt and demented.

  34. kezza2

    psyclaw

    I’m sorry to be abrasive, that’s my usual attitude.

    I’m very touchy. I was abused, sexually, when I was eight years old.

    I told my parents, because I was a truthful child, and despite the punishment I’d seen for telling lies, I didn’t know that sex was bad.

    I had a history of fear of the dark. I had to have a light on. Always. In fact, I was like a canary down the mine. If the power went out during the night, I was the one to notify everyone – through demented screaming, or so I’m told.

    Mum used to tell me that my notification of the light going out was a good thing, because dad would be able to set up the generator for milking.

    Yet, my punishment for telling mum and dad about the sexual abuse was I was made to stand out in the dark, a hundred yards from the house, all by myself. For six hours.

    Darkness became not a lack of light, not just a concept, not something to fear but a real mass, a dead weight on me. I can still feel its oppressiveness; its crushing weight.

    It’s taken all this time to even set foot outside by myself at night, for a few seconds, or a few minutes, to feel proud of myself.

    I saw the red moon the other night. It was magnificent. But I had my dog with me. And I made sure there was nobody else about. And I made sure I had a beeline for the house.

    It’s silly to be 60 and still scared of the dark. But that’s me.

    And the more I search for truth the less I’m scared of the dark.

  35. spur212

    Rudd becoming UN Secretary General would be worth it just to see the reaction on Abbott’s face …

    Better yet, just to see the reaction on here! 😀

    Seriously though, he was born for the role

  36. zoidlord

    Why should ICAC say sorry? ICAC is doing it’s job.

  37. bemused

    spur212@1529

    Rudd becoming UN Secretary General would be worth it just to see the reaction on Abbott’s face …

    Better yet, just to see the reaction on here!

    Seriously though, he was born for the role

    Oh the reaction on here would be the best by far. 👿

    The Gillard cultists would go into total meltdown.

    Tone would probably just throw one of his nooddies for an hour or so.

  38. Thomas. Paine.

    [A Us Colonel(Ret’d) looks at the insane statement of a US diplomat who wants to send 150.000 US troops into the Ukraine to confront the Russians…He sees it as both mad and undoable as the US no longer can marshall such forces,after the disasters of Afg’stan and Iraq.and American people will not support such a moive

    One wonders if some US policy makers need help for their mental conditions and their lack of understanding of the new world emerging,as US power declines]

    I think the US is totally pissed that all the juicy information the NSA gathered on many European leaders wasn’t enough leverage to blackmail them into offering up a 100,000 troops to invade the Ukraine on the excuse of fighting back Russia.

    Problem for the USA, now that Snowden outed their activities,..is that they can’t use the information against European leaders lest it cause a total breakdown of relations. And the US needs its friends even more now days.

    Russia and BRICS holding many more damaging cards than the US when it comes to the Ukraine… though I suspect Russia wouldn’t mind the US / IMF paying their gas bills for the coming years. So maybe Russia is looking for parts of eastern Ukraine and leave the remainder responsible for the billions in gas bills ..lol

  39. Boerwar

    According to the Liberal Political Class someone has to say sorry every time they get annoyed with the truth coming out.

    All those mediaeval flat earth scientists should just fess up to Brandis and say sorry to everyone.

  40. spur212

    Bemused

    The fireworks would be spectacular! 😀

  41. zoidlord

    http://www.probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2014/04/welfare-review-needs-incentivise-sustainable-employment#

    “Disability is not cheap. At a minimum there are extra costs for medical and transport expenses. Pushing people into poverty is not an effective way to empower them to find and maintain sustainable employment.”

    And it’s not going to get any better.

  42. kezza2

    briefly @ 1530

    I keep telling my story about truth and lies, and honesty and the whole damn thing.

    But you’re the only person to have understood where I’m coming from.

    I did mention it earlier, about one teacher in particular, what really matters is trust.

    That teacher taught me to trust, however briefly (pun not intended) that there are some good people out there.

    And that’s what I saw in Fran. Someone who wouldn’t/couldn’t move the goalposts no matter what.

    I’m glad you saw it.

    And said it so much more succinctly that I ever could.

  43. Steve777

    It doesn’t matter what Kevin Rudd dies now. For better or worse he’s left the Australia political stage for good.

  44. bemused

    spur212@1534

    Bemused

    The fireworks would be spectacular!

    Is there a report he might get that role?

  45. zoomster

    I was wandering along the wharf at Melbourne during the Patrick dispute and two (what looked to me like) very mature men called out, “Mrs Leschen!”

    Two ex students – from my very first ever class – both then union organisers (for which they gave me credit, which I denied..)

    One of them went on to become John Brumby’s chief of staff.

  46. confessions

    [Rudd becoming UN Secretary General would be worth it just to see the reaction on Abbott’s face …

    Better yet, just to see the reaction on here!]

    Which I’d hazard a guess would be met with champagne corks popping and folk swinging from the chandeliers in happiness.

    Anything that hauls the man’s sorry arse away from the Labor caucus and any mischief making with the Oz media is a good outcome for the party. It should’ve happened sooner.

  47. zoidlord

    The Pension system in the UK is becoming (or already is) a joke:
    http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-27083505

  48. Steve777

    Re my 1537 – it does not matter what Kevin Rudd DOES now – predictive text (or inattention or fat clumsy fingers) strikes again

  49. bemused

    confessions@1540


    Rudd becoming UN Secretary General would be worth it just to see the reaction on Abbott’s face …

    Better yet, just to see the reaction on here!


    Which I’d hazard a guess would be met with champagne corks popping and folk swinging from the chandeliers in happiness.

    Anything that hauls the man’s sorry arse away from the Labor caucus and any mischief making with the Oz media is a good outcome for the party. It should’ve happened sooner.

    😀 It’s starting already! 😆 😆 😆

  50. deblonay

    TON PAINE HAS LOOKED… ABOVE…AT THE INCREASING MADNESS AFFECTING SOME US POLITICIANS…PEOPLE LIKE MAD MCCAIN___________________
    In the article below Pepe Escobar looks at the way the US feels impotent as the Russian-Chinese “Pipelinestan” deals links their two economies ,,across the “stans” of Central Asia…what used to be called”The Great Game.”.now pivots on gas and oil of which the Russians have a vast abundance

    The Euro dependaance of such gas/oil make the EU a natural western terminus for such resources.and would link The Euros/Russia/and China….Ukraine has a part in this vast linkage….but the US has none
    They would like to use the Ukraine to block such integratiuon…..lacking in their case both oil and gas on the scale of the central Asian landmass
    an interesting article which looks at the US problem and it’s growing isolation

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-170414.html

  51. spur212

    Bemused

    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/04/19/rudds-long-plot-replace-ban-ki-moon/1397829600#.U1GsLycaySO

    Not surprised it hasn’t been mentioned here that much (if at all) today

  52. Just Me

    [1504
    poroti

    Just Me

    Just about to hit the best time of year here, early-mid dry

    Snap ! Love the Dry but even better when it is still green and lush.]

    Green is nice, just after it has rained is wonderful, love a good lightning show (beats TV hands down). But the 6 months of relentless high humidity, usually high temps, and lots of tropical sun, is wearing. Especially that build-up. I have air-con, but don’t wish to live in a box for half the year.

    Dry season does mess with some in the hay fever and asthma crowd. Mostly later in the dry, I think, when it gets really dry and dusty, and the big fires get going.

  53. William Bowe

    [Oh the reaction on here would be the best by far. 👿

    The Gillard cultists would go into total meltdown.]

    Thank God we’ve stopped talking about the boring old biggest-political-story-of-the-year, and moved on to something interesting.

  54. briefly

    [1536
    kezza2

    briefly @ 1530

    I keep telling my story about truth and lies, and honesty and the whole damn thing.]

    kezza2, I hope you keep on telling your story. We need trust and we need courage too and we need to know that dignity will outlast sorrow.

  55. deblonay

    Tom Paine.. please note this site (below) which is from a Swiss source and pro-Russian,but which puts up many new views on the world order

    In today’s article the writer says that the Russians(of whom he seems to have great knowledge…I understand he is he’s a professional Military anylyst) are now determined to challenge the US hegemony across the world…dangerous but interesting in the long term

    http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.de/

  56. confessions

    [Dry season does mess with some in the hay fever and asthma crowd. Mostly later in the dry, I think, when it gets really dry and dusty, and the big fires get going.]

    The thing for me is that everything felt dead during the dry. It was as if life packed up and shut itself down. As much as the temperature and humidity were much more bearable, I found the lack of life hard to deal with.

    But in the wet you’re practically engulfed by life. I loved it, even though I found the gathering mould rather gross. 🙂

  57. bemused

    spur212@1545

    Bemused

    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/04/19/rudds-long-plot-replace-ban-ki-moon/1397829600#.U1GsLycaySO

    Not surprised it hasn’t been mentioned here that much (if at all) today

    I haven’t seen any prior mention, but the usual suspects have already started to react.
    William is a bit of a surprise though. 😉

  58. briefly

    Rudd for the UN? Oh, nooo!! The UN has enough troubles already.

  59. Tom the first and best

    1549

    If there is a fight for hegemony between a Putin run Russia and the USA then it would be better for the world if the USA wins. The Americans are bad but Putin and co and worse.

  60. victoria

    [The spectacular termination of Barry O’Farrell’s premiership over a “forgotten” gift from a Liberal Party associated lobbyist and fundraiser being investigated by ICAC, Nick Di Girolamo, has led to much astonishment and confusion within the Right of the political class and its media hangers on. For the second time since it was set up by the conservatives, the Commission’s investigations have led to the resignation of a Liberal premier. To add insult to the Right’s injuries, on the first occasion Nick Greiner ended up being essentially cleared and on this occasion — at least so far, because more may come to light — the infraction seems relatively minor in terms of the elite lifestyles politicians enjoy: a $3000 bottle of wine ]

    See more at: http://left-flank.org/2014/04/19/barrys-fall-anti-politics-authority-corruption/#sthash.qJrmfJ8V.2yrt4l2a.dpuf

  61. dave

    Vic – some good stuff in the rest of that article.

    Not mentioned is that ICAC needs to be strengthened even after what has happened and hopefully as hearings proceed the need for this will become apparent.

    The tories are really going to have major grief with all of this.

    Do they strike back at ICAC in “punishment” and “retribution” in reflex at what has happened or do they attempt to fix things to shut out the very lobbyists who supported them all the way to regain power and who are mates.

    If they don’t they are road kill with voters. The same voters who are seeing proposals from spivs to build hotels in the Botanical Gardens and sell off other public lands like Harold Park – all to the same spiv tory mates.

    baird is a not up to it IMO.

  62. confessions

    victoria:

    Yet despite all that this whole ICAC inquiry is still fascinating. It’s claimed a federal minister, and a NSW Premier. Where will it all end? It’s just absolutely so compelling.

  63. Fran Barlow

    Much as I hate to disagree with Tad Tietze, Greiner was not essentially cleared. It was found that he wasn’t subject to the law, the facts of the matter notwithstanding.

  64. dave

    The second part of that SBS show tonight “Building the North” was really good viewing.

    Northern UK Industrialisation etc.

  65. dave

    Fran Barlow@1557

    Much as I hate to disagree with Tad Tietze, Greiner was not essentially cleared. It was found that he wasn’t subject to the law, the facts of the matter notwithstanding.

    Correct – again no matter how much the tories are desperate to re-write it all – they must not be allowed to do so.

  66. confessions

    [The tories are really going to have major grief with all of this.]

    Do you really think so? Obeid and co are accused of committing major fraud on the public purse. That stuff is rank. Like, seriously rank.

    They need to go down for that if proven guilty. By contrast, the Liberals are just facing political embarrassment on the face of what we’ve seen so far. Nothing that could lead to actual criminal charges.

  67. Fran Barlow

    Dr Tad is on the far left Dave. He is one of those calling us Greens neo-liberals on bikes.

  68. shellbell

    Some irony lies within the likelihood that the current ICAC inquiry will see corruption findings, if any, against only ALP politicians.

    Tripodi and Kelly, likely.

    Eddie is a bit on the fringe on this one.

  69. victoria

    And here is Elder’s take on the BOF saga

    [Barry O’Farrell misled ICAC and had to resign. It’s still a pity that he’s gone from the Premiership, and it’s taken me days to work out why.

    He made his way up through the Liberal Party with the deft touch of getting along with everyone without being anyone’s patsy. He spent time observing all of the players in the NSW Liberals up close, including their weaknesses and how to get around them. It’s part of the reason why I both liked him and rated him as a real political operative, not just a player but a stayer, attaining a state to which most political-class dickheads can only aspire. ]

    http://www.andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/the-bottle-and-damage-done.html

  70. dave

    [ confessions
    Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    Do you really think so? Obeid and co are accused of committing major fraud on the public purse. That stuff is rank. Like, seriously rank.

    They need to go down for that if proven guilty. By contrast, the Liberals are just facing political embarrassment on the face of what we’ve seen so far. Nothing that could lead to actual criminal charges. ]

    Dead right I do. They have some of their own facing potentially embarrassing weeks at ICAC with utterly unknow outcomes – with negative outlook.

    Senior tories appear to have questions to answer which will be on TV screens for a long time to come with implication for the NSW government having to face an election within a year.

    They are the government, they have to wear it and address it.

    But yes obeid still reflects on Labor but no longer one way traffic – and hopefully that might move into the DPP’s area very soon.

  71. dave

    Fran Barlow@1561

    Dr Tad is on the far left Dave. He is one of those calling us Greens neo-liberals on bikes.

    Fair enough.

    Others have made similar comments about Greiner over the years.

  72. Thomas. Paine.

    hehe the butt hurtedness has started with a few here already. lol

    [
    Bob Carr believes Kevin Rudd is ideal for the top job at the United Nations

    Former prime minister’s ‘legendary forcefulness’ would be an advantage in leading the world body, former foreign minister says
    ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/19/bob-carr-believes-kevin-rudd-ideal-for-top-job-at-united-nations

    Rather than see the importance and significance of this real possibility … Australia and world-wise…. the butthurted ones would rather…well….snivel.

  73. zoidlord

    @Victoria/1563

    Perhaps he felt that if he resigned, they move onto someone else, and more will follow?

  74. dave

    shellbell@1562

    Some irony lies within the likelihood that the current ICAC inquiry will see corruption findings, if any, against only ALP politicians.

    Tripodi and Kelly, likely.

    Eddie is a bit on the fringe on this one.

    Will some tory identities etc also likely see corruption findings ?

  75. Thomas. Paine.

    [1549

    If there is a fight for hegemony between a Putin run Russia and the USA then it would be better for the world if the USA wins. The Americans are bad but Putin and co and worse.]

    Getting the balance right is important. I think there will develop a natural balance.. China-Russia-USA/Europe and others. The US needs a check just as much as they other guys. The USA isn’t the kind motherly truthful administrator of world justice of 1950s propaganda. It is as just as evil and murderous as the rest…we just happen to sit on their side of the ledger as an ally.

    The next game changer….with uncertain outcomes is the eventual demise of the USD as preeminent global reserve currency. Which will force dramatic changes at home.

  76. confessions

    victoria:

    Thanks, will read Elder tomorrow when I can devote time to him.

  77. confessions

    dave:

    I guess we’ll see ultimately where this all goes in the end.

  78. briefly

    [1561
    Fran Barlow

    Dr Tad is on the far left Dave. He is one of those calling us Greens neo-liberals on bikes.]

    I like that. It makes me think I could be Green too.

  79. dave

    ‘Fess

    There should be a flurry of NSW Polling soon anyway.

    [ confessions
    Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 10:37 pm | PERMALINK

    dave:

    I guess we’ll see ultimately where this all goes in the end. ]

  80. Roxanna

    [I haven’t seen any prior mention, but the usual suspects have already started to react.
    William is a bit of a surprise though. ]

    Probably sick of lying and curries.

  81. lefty e

    [Former prime minister’s ‘legendary forcefulness’ would be an advantage in leading the world body, former foreign minister says]

    Kevin Rudd to RULE THE WORLD!

    🙂

  82. deblonay

    Th test for the US Dollar may come in the very near future

    In May Putin will visit China to sign a huge Gas deal which will involve a TRILLION DOLLARS worth of Russian gas for China..over the next ten years

    and the payments…in Chinese yuan and Russian roubles to cut the US out of making any profit on the deal
    such deals also effect the US economy at home…if the dollar values slide then the costs of imports becomes higher in the US…notably for resources like oil and gas…all bad for US living standards

  83. crikey whitey

    I am pretty sad that only one single person paid the slightest attention to my posts of yesterday.

    Not even a hello.

    I could say more on this. But does it matter?

    Do you give a fat rats? The answer is sadly, no.

    You may quote me.

    It is as dismissive and ugly as the politics we discuss.

    Or don’t even bother to respond to.

  84. zoidlord

    Retweeted by sortius
    Scott M ‏@ScooterDMC 5h

    @TurnbullMalcolm So, check slide 9. http://www.telekom.com/static/-/212856/2/praesentation-si … a whopping 10 years extra from copper, not the 50+ from fibre. #nbn #auspol

  85. Rossmore

    Crikey, missed ur posts … what was ur beef?

  86. zoidlord

    7.8 Earthquake South of PNG not long ago.
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000pr89#summary

    After initial smaller ones.

  87. Jolyon Wagg

    Hey CW…what were you posting about? I would go and look but it’s kind of hard to go back and look now that there is no “All” button so that you can search through all the posts in a thread.

  88. crikey whitey

    Rossmore.

    Thank you. For responding.

    If you (or anyone for that matter) could be bothered to look at my posts of Friday, I remarked upon issues of the moment.

    It really pisses me off that one goes to the trouble of responding to issues of the day or week or month or year and in response.

    Zilch.

    I would not like to think that I am tooooo boring.

  89. Jolyon Wagg

    Hey CW I just went through all the pages for last night and couldn’t find any posts from you. I read here a lot more than I post and I suspect there are quite a few who do likewise…so don’t assume a lack of response implies a lack of interest.

  90. Rossmore

    Crikey 1583. No I dont as a habit routinely check out posts from the night before. Spell out what your point was in a couple of sentences. Otherwise stop whingeing.

  91. DisplayName

    Hello crikey, I acknowledge your existence.

  92. crikey whitey

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Will I be snipped? Others have used that expression.

  93. crikey whitey

    Jolyon Wagg

    Quite.

  94. briefly

    [1583……crikey whitey]

    Hey CW, I missed your posts – did not go a-blogging on Friday – but it’s good to see you tonight 🙂

  95. cud chewer

    [Will I be snipped?]

    Yep, no more babies for you.

  96. frednk

    I’m sorry folks, space craft may fly around it; but you have to do something other that say I’m a loony when I tell you the earth is flat (it actually held up by an elephant).

    It would seem I have the right to be a bigot and an ignorant sod.

    http://www.spiked-online.com/freespeechnow/fsn_article/the-state-should-never-be-the-arbiter-of-what-people-can-think/14936#.U1Kdw6Ia2n5

    [
    He describes how Penny Wong, the Labor Party senator for South Australia and minister for climate change in the Julia Gillard government, would ‘stand up in the Senate and say “The science is settled”. In other words, “I am not even going to engage in a debate with you”. It was ignorant, it was medieval, the approach of these true believers in climate change.’ Wong, whom Brandis tells me is ‘Australia’s high priestess of political correctness’, is far from alone in suffering from what the American journalist Joel Kotkin recently described as ‘The Debate Is Over’ Syndrome. Throughout eco-circles, and among the political and media elites more broadly, the idea that the time for debating climate change is over, and now we just need action, action, action, is widespread. And to Brandis, this speaks to a new and illiberal climate of anti-intellectualism, to the emergence of ‘a habit of mind and mode of discourse which would deny the legitimacy of an alternative point of view, where rather than winning the argument [they] exclude their antagonists from the argument’.
    ]