tip off

BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor

This week’s Nielsen result prompts a startling shift to the Greens in the weekly poll aggregate, which in turn drives a solid move to Labor on two-party preferred.

Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point. Only a small share of the gain comes at the expense of Labor, who have accordingly made a strong gain on two-party preferred and are in majority government territory on the seat projection. A further point of interest with respect to the Nielsen poll is that the two-party preferred response on respondent-allocated preferences, which is not published by Fairfax, is at 54.5-45.5 considerably stronger for Labor than the headline result from previous election preferences. This may reflect a swelling in Greens support from the ranks of disaffected Labor identifiers, and a consequent increase in the Greens preference flow to Labor in comparison with the 2013 election result – which may in turn suggest the headline two-party result from the poll flattered the Coalition a little.

The other aspect of the latest BludgerTrack result which may raise an eyebrow is the strength of the Labor swing in Queensland, which also blew out excessively in January before moderating considerably thereafter. The Queensland breakdown from this week’s Nielsen played its part, showing Labor ahead 53-47 for a swing of around 10%. However, in this case the Nielsen is not out on a limb, providing the model with one of five Queensland data points from the past four weeks which all show Labor in the lead, with two-party results ranging from 51.1% to 56.5% (keeping in mind that sample sizes are in some cases below 200). The scattered state results provided by Morgan are not included in the model, but its poll release last week reported that Labor held a lead in Queensland of 51-49.

Nielsen also provides new data points for leadership ratings, and in keeping with the general weakness of the poll for the Coalition, their addition to the model puts Bill Shorten’s net approval rating back in front of Tony Abbott’s, and returns the narrowing trajectory to the preferred prime minister trendlines.

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  • 101
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:20 am | Permalink

    BOF did not count on the thank you note turning up. When he was made aware of it, he knew his numbers were up

  • 102
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:20 am | Permalink

    Gerard protesting that he had no idea that Grange was more expensive than any other wine – this is a man who probably shared many a red with Howard. :(

  • 103
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:21 am | Permalink

    On the ABC China deal. Abbott cannot cut Australia Network on the basis of poor viewing figures now

  • 104
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    mari

    I assume it is an offset to pay for the christian bait $200 marriage voucher.

    So much for COL pressures.

  • 105
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    Gerard protesting that he had no idea that Grange was more expensive than any other wine

    As if this is even the point. Gerard is a fool, and the Liberals should be embarrassed to have someone like him in their corner. He isn’t doing them any favours with rubbish like this.

  • 106
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    Gerard protesting that he had no idea that Grange was more expensive

    The unicorns of Gerard what a fool.

  • 107
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    I see that the New South Wales Liberal parliamentarians have chipped in to give B’OF a going down present: a 1959 Bottle of Grange.

    I bet he remembers it this time round.

  • 108
    mari
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    Boerwar 104

    Never thought of that they have to economise in these hard times don’t they?

  • 109
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    Hmmmm….

    I see that New South Wales has a liquidity crisis on its hands.

  • 110
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    and if we actively encouraged working from home (where it’s appropriate to do so) we could cut those numbers even more dramatically.

    I once had an office job an hour from home, in the early days of the internet. A couple of times I had functions to attend on behalf of work near home, so instead of driving to the office, I took a bundle of work home with me, and did it all on my home computer. I actually got more done than I usually would have in that time, as I could work with fewer interruptions.

    As Conroy pointed out, in Europe and the US something like 10% (2005 figures) of employees work from home at least part time, compared to 6% in Australia.

    http://www.theage.com.au/small-business/managing/let-staff-work-from-home-communications-minister-20110803-1iawd.html

    And (from another source)–

    If the very existence of the NBN provides the stimulus to entice even only 10% of workers to telecommute – that is, work from home using the bandwidth the NBN will provide to make doing so particularly viable – that is reducing that congestion by 10%, and therefore saving the Australian economy $2 billion EVERY SINGLE YEAR once the network is completed.

    http://michaelwyres.com/2010/10/nbn-congestion-telecommuting-and-productivity/

  • 111
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:28 am | Permalink

    zoomster

    I have been trying to take a break from thinking about the loss of the benefits of the NBN for a couple of days.

    Damn difficult. LNP are criminal in that along with science in my opinion

  • 112
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:29 am | Permalink

    Given the vaguely foetid odour emanating from Berejiklian’s cum Photio’s bus money imbroglio, I assume that Baird will be premier by tonight.

    But then, this is NSW, after all…

  • 113
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:29 am | Permalink

    WWP

    You would need intent. The number of criminal offences where you can be prosecuted for doing something unintentionally are very few.

    Angela D’Amore is the most recent convictee for misleading ICAC.

    Without checking I though her offence related to manipulation of documents or coaching a witness which would manifest a clear intent.

  • 114
    Darn
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    The normally even-tempered Mr Abbott responded angrily to a suggestion from a reporter that voters would now see the Liberal Party in NSW as corrupt and thus unable to deliver airport and related infrastructure as a result of the O'Farrell revelations.
    He branded that "an entirely unjustified smear", calling on the reporter to back up the statement with evidence or retract.
    "I think you should withdraw that and apologise because there is no evidence whatsoever for that," he said, his face barely concealing his deep feelings.

    So there you have it. Even after all the evidence to the contrary, Mark Kenny wants us to believe that Tony Abbott is “normally even tempered”. I would have thought “typical aggressive attack dog” would have been a more apt description.

  • 115
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    If Berejiklian is elected, relations between Ankara and Sydney may chill.

  • 116
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    “@ljdrummond24: Mike Baird – because we need another socially conservative, Manly supporting surfer from the north shore running the govt #auspol #facepalm”

  • 117
    mari
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    Zoomster 110

    Two of my children both in pretty high pressure jobs do one day a week at home. say with modern technology can work more productively than in the office

  • 118
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    As linked earlier by Otiose, a classic from David Rowe

    http://www.afr.com/rw/2009-2014/AFR/2014/04/16/Photos/0cc8237e-c557-11e3-8ce5-c710a27a1b8c_gallery17apr14–736×555.jpg

  • 119
    geoffrey
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    Psephos
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 8:59 am | PERMALINK
    Is O’Farrell’s resignation more to do with what is still to be exposed by the ICAC more than about a bottle of wine?
    ——–so what are vibes in germany at present over eastern europe – there is lots of panel tv shows there. full sanctions? no concern at all?

  • 120
    dave
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    victoria@51

    Lateline last night.

    Kate McClymont and the hapless Gerard Henderson

    http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2014/s3987328.htm

    Ta for that Vic.

    Henderson blowing his caskets is really the icing on the cake – particularly after robb demanded the rules of evidence be changed when Sinodinos lost any credibility he might have had when he fronted ICAC.

    So ICAC is fine as long as the tories get off scott free and anyone else gets creamed.

    Henderson demanded people don’t interupt him then refuses to allow them any chance to speak.

    All the better to see how much henderson is upset.

    Would have much preferred abbott or newman or the emperor etc to have been sprung rather than BOF all the same.

    Next tory to the stand pulease….

  • 121
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:38 am | Permalink

    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    If Berejiklian is elected, relations between Ankara and Sydney may chill.

    lol

    I assume from the name that you are referring to the Armenian diaspora from which Australia appears to be somewhat of a beneficiary: first Hockey and now Berejiklian.

  • 122
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    dave

    The other Hendo line I liked was that ICAC should take evidence in secret.

    This is, of course, in line with the general drive towards greater accountability and transparency being delivered by the onwater operational mobsters.

  • 123
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    I assume from the name that you are referring to the Armenian diaspora from which Australia appears to be somewhat of a beneficiary: first Hockey and now Berejiklian.

    And the only real terrorists who have done bombings and shootings in Oz.

  • 124
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    Isn’t referring to Berejiklian by her surname now considered racist?

  • 125
    dave
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    AussieAchmed@57

    For Liberals it’s innocent mistakes.

    For Labor it’s corruption.

    If Morris Iemma, Rees or Kristina had been caught up in the same circumstances as BOF they would have been kicked to death and the entire Labor movement’s name blackened and the circumstances thrown in their faces publicly for years – over and over.

    Obeid etc deserve exactly what they get and more as do any tories found corrupt – bring on the court cases asap etc.

  • 126
    Inner Westie
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    A measly bottle of plonk. A trifling memory lapse. A good man wronged. An out-of-control commission. Wa-wa-wa.

    The man and his reputation should be reinstated forthwith.

    But oh, the foetid fish rots from the head.

    Poor, foolish Barry got mobbed by the fat thugs who lurk in the shadows of his and his party’s influence peddling.

  • 127
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:46 am | Permalink

    z

    Only if you single her out for the use of a surname because of a personal racist view.

    Apart from that, I had this vague onomatapoeic echo in my brain and it has finally arrived front-of-brain: Berejiklian and Bjelke.

  • 128
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    @SydneyEditor: #nswpol update: Andrew Constance would become Treasurer under new deal that would put @mikebairdMP in power >> http://t.co/RDZrnpL0y7

  • 129
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    Rees and O’Farrell went the same way, no?

    Killed off by the corrupt ones on their OWN side.

  • 130
    dave
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    victoria@63

    Gladys will not contest the Leadership

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mike-baird-set-to-be-next-nsw-premier-20140417-36ssb.html

    I reckon she is far smarter and dangerous to Labor than Baird.

    Apparently she got to General Manager status with the Commonwealth Bank in her early 30′s.

  • 131
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    shellbell

    And the only real terrorists who have done bombings and shootings in Oz.

    Always assuming of course, that we can ignore the myriad massacres, rapes, murders and enforced dislocations enforced on Indigenous people from 1788 to 1927 and subsequently.

  • 132
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    Boer

    I was, of course, referring to the SA election flier ‘scandal’.

  • 133
    fredex
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/not-the-first-time-barry-ofarrells-memory-has-failed-him-20140416-36rvl.html#ixzz2z5JBmB6D

    The remark left the impression Mr O'Farrell barely knew Mr Di Girolamo. In fact, the Premier had attended three private fund-raising dinners before the election, been photographed with Mr Di Girolamo at an Italian function, attended West Tigers functions with him and it turns out accepted a $3000 bottle of Penfolds Grange.

    Soon after the gift, Mr O'Farrell's chief of staff recommended Mr Di Girolamo be appointed to the board of the government-owned Water Corp. He was also granted a meeting with the Premier and his finance minister, Greg Pearce, to discuss AWH's contract with Sydney Water. Mr Pearce described the meeting as “cosy”.

    Nine months later, AWH was awarded a 25-year contract worth $100 million. The awarding was done by Sydney Water, not cabinet.

    The issue has, despite how the media is attempting to portray it, virtually nothing to do with a bottle of wine.

    Its about lying under oath to an official/Royal Commission status anti-corruption body.

    And …receiving a valuable gift one day and shortly afterwards [cause and effect?] giving the donor favourable treatment – twice- despite an independent and relevant govt body saying the donor is unsuitable.

    And, furthermore, there is a suggestion contained within the thank you note [the underlining of the word 'all'] that there may be more involved.

  • 134
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    Looks like the pong got to Berejiklianites. She has decided not to run …’in the interests of party stability.’

    Those Liberals! Full of integrity, honesty and team spirit!

    Ms Goward is being touted, but, after her recent run of outs with the kids under her care, the timing may not be good.

  • 135
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    z
    I don’t recall that.

  • 136
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:54 am | Permalink

    Kate McClymont
    @krauset @KJBar oh dear, I have just seen the #lateline tweets. Was it really that bad?

  • 137
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    You would need intent. The number of criminal offences where you can be prosecuted for doing something unintentionally are very few.

    Thanks – in an ICAC setting one could make a case for it not being an element but I’m not surprised it is.

  • 138
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    Baird/Berejiklian Statement

    jhttps://twitter.com/lizfoschia/status/456581984806924288/photo/1

  • 139
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    Not sure if already posted

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/bigtime-player-lived-large-until-it-all-came-undone-20140416-36sed.html

  • 140
    Patrick Bateman
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    daretotread

    However when it comes to choosing the class captain, or getting help with some serious issue, they will turn to the Nerds/A students. They will choose the kid who is going to be a Brain surgeon or IT genius NOT the jock who will make a first rate plumber or very popular girl destined to be a movie star.

    We must have gone to very, very different schools.

  • 141
    dave
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    Boerwar@122

    dave

    The other Hendo line I liked was that ICAC should take evidence in secret.

    This is, of course, in line with the general drive towards greater accountability and transparency being delivered by the onwater operational mobsters.

    BW – Just tory ‘evidence’ in secret.

  • 142
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    “@davefisher74: Liberal deal = tidy process. If it was the ALP, it would be ‘backroom deal!!!’”

  • 143
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    fredex

    as I’ve already said (on the previous thread) the use of the word ‘all’ is quite interesting – especially given it’s underlined.

    It would be unremarkable if O’Farrell had, in fact, a relationship with the gentleman going back years – if it was someone who’d been there in the background supporting him quietly in good times and bad.

    But for someone you’ve only met once or twice, when you meet thousands of people casually every year?

  • 144
    DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    So all the people who were unconcerned by free wheeling trials by media circus of Labor politicians such as JG are now concerned by the actions of the ICAC.

    Apparently there’s such a thing as too much scrutiny of Liberals, but never too much for Labor.

  • 145
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    Today’s Mumble is on BOF’s downfall.
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/barry_gone/

  • 146
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    @ConversationEDU: ICAC highlights unsavoury intersection where business, political donations & lobbying meet, says @michellegrattan https://t.co/b5L2pbD343

  • 147
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    @latikambourke: Republican and Labor Senator @samdastyari boycotting Kate and Wills soiree: http://t.co/3CMS3r6vha

  • 148
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 10:13 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: .@PruGoward: “I’m not going to speculate on who the new Premier will be but I will be nominating as Deputy Leader” #nswpol #abcnews24”

  • 149
    Dee
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    Gerard was a rude little man last night.

    Kate almost got it in about why Gerard considers it OK.

    Anyone like his rebuttal that the Labor party dealt with Obeid and McDonald, no need for ICAC?

  • 150
    Patrick Bateman
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    But yet JGillard was supposed to recall preparing a form 20 years ago when she was a young solicitor, seriously this mob disgust me

    Have any of our whimpering press gallery thought to put this to the Liberal Party?

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