tip off

Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

1110
  • 1
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

    Is Gary in bizarro world? WA has the ALP in front?

    The ALP leads on a two-party preferred basis in four of the six Australian States. Victoria: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%, Queensland: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, Western Australia: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% and South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.

    However the L-NP leads in both New South Wales: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48% and Tasmania: L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47%.

  • 2
    B.C.
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

    Barnett is on the nose in WA.

  • 3
    fredex
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

    is this sufficient by itself to justify Nielsen?

  • 4
    spur212
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

    38.5% primary vote for the Coalition is alarm bells starting to buzz loudly territory.

    Pity this is just a Morgan SMS poll

  • 5
    swamprat
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

    http://www.echo.net.au/2014/04/dr-abbot-poised-butcher-health-system/

  • 6
    ajm
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

    guytaur (from previous thread)

    Palmer predicting a Labor Government in Queensland after next election

    I think he was actually predicting a PUP government by his subsequent comments!

  • 7
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

    B.C.

    Barnett is on the nose in WA.

    Dick Court twice.

  • 8
    davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

    A minority government in QLD with PUP holding the balance of power is a possibility.

  • 9
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

    shellbell

    How many times have we heard this before the dive for the money:

    http://www.lawyersweekly.com.au/news/young-lawyers-call-for-change

  • 10
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    From previous thread:

    bemused@1365 on Seats of the week: Mayo and Sturt | The Poll Bludger

    Player One@1353

    bemused@1326

    spur212@1319


    Bemused

    Yes! Symbolism! It’s a perceived barrier to entry. Bill’s just removing it from the “brand”



    A mis-perception aided and abetted by people like Shorten continually referring to it.

    So he has built up a great big straw man and now successfully demolished it!

    What a surprise.


    I hate to rain on your one man anti-Shorten crusade, but section 5.3.4 of the ALP membership rules (http://www.viclabor.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Final-Rules-April-2013.pdf) says:



    Any person who is not a member of any union at the time of his/her application who is eligible to belong to a Union which is affiliated with the Party must belong to such a Union before he/she can be admitted to membership of the Party.



    Or in other words, you don’t know what you’re talking about – as usual.

    I put some emphasis into your rules quote to help you with your cognitive difficulties.
    1. Most of the workforce are not covered by an “affiliated union”.
    2. Many other members are not in the workforce. e.g. students, retired etc.
    3. As per an earlier post I made, there is no enforcement mechanism for that rule. However most eligible to join an affiliated union would have as it is part of Labor values.

    I see nothing anti-Shorten in what I wrote. To be critical of a statement does not mean general criticism of a person and I did not confine that particular criticism to Shorten.

    So stop talking out of your arse you unpleasant grub.

  • 11
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    CTar1,

    About as often as the cries for reform of the ALP.

  • 12
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

    If Clive is going to push the CT repeal off to a Senate Committee forget about any repeal before July 2015. :)

  • 13
    boomy1
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:04 pm | Permalink

    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 3:49 pm | PERMALINK

    Dick Court twice.

    Painful.

  • 14
    Player One
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    So stop talking out of your arse you unpleasant grub.

    You don’t like people pointing out how little you appear know about your beloved ALP, do you?

    And when you get caught out, you get all potty-mouthed.

    Kezza2 nailed you last night

  • 15
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    GG – Yep.

    And just as a go’er I deplore, the anti-tyke shit that goes on here.

    I’m agnostic.

    Some people are still living in the 50′s,

  • 16
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    Organisations need to be in a state of constant reform. The world is not static, it is dynamic.

    If the old fossils of the Stasis parties want to stop the world turning, good luck to them.

  • 17
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    Hey Joe.

    Amidst all the talk of a budget crisis and the need to raise the pension age and cut welfare costs, it seems an utterly outrageous suggestion that we should instead give the pension to everyone and substantially increase it as well.

    It sounds like the raving of some loony socialist determined to bankrupt the nation, but it actually makes hard, conservative economic sense and would save the budget billions. It’s just too bad that the federal government won’t have a bar of it – because the federal government is not the stuff of hard, conservative economics whatever their PR spinners might have you think.

    The sting in the tail of the suggestion is that increasing the pension and removing any means test from it would come at the cost of scrapping the many tax breaks given to our superannuation system. It’s a brave, brave soul who would be game to take on the vested interests of a $1.5 trillion industry merely in the name of equity and protecting our longer-term budget outlook. And there really aren’t brave, brave souls in either side of parliament.

    http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/our-experts/michael-pascoe/article/-/22837710/boost-pensions-to-save-on-aged-costs-no-seriously/

  • 18
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

    The Informal Party is only very mildly concerned about Shorten’s Gambit: detaching the backroom boyos from the teat or the trough is going to be much tougher than making a speech.

    The Informal Party is delighted to learn that Baird’s preparation for NSW premier included stints as a banker and as a theological college student.

    His social values are, of course, pre-modern.

    Practically perfect preparation for a Liberal premier.

  • 19
    shellbell
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    CTar1

    The present young lawyers are the partners of the future going to conferences where they learn
    how to to get future young lawyers how to maximise billable hours.

    The billable hour will stop when clients including government refuse to be billed on that basis.

    Minters getting some positive press in the Liars Weekly article.

    Minters will be the best represented law firm on the night of the Awards, having nine finalists, which is just shy of Norton Rose Fulbright’s achievement of having 10 finalists last year.

    Of particular note are the three finalists Minters has in the Government category.

  • 20
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

    I don’t really care all that much how all the pension palaver goes but is it not a good thing for the Australian economy that Australians have saved $1.5 trillion instead of spending it all whne, or even before, it arrived?

  • 21
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

    Crikey has an article on how if you are an Australian citizen and if you get killed by an Obama drone, you are on your own.

  • 22
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    Abbott is farqued
    The Liberals are farqued
    The Nationals are farqued
    The Coalition is farqued
    Barry O’Farrell is farqued

  • 23
    Centre
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

    Greens up a staggering (read puny) 1% to 13%.

    Bring on Essential ;)

  • 24
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    From the previous thread…

    1332
    Libertarian Unionist

    In a biological construct, individuals have very limited capacity to “adapt”, though species adapt across generations. Within an economy, adaptation by individuals is a pre-condition for their survival and reproduction...

    Capital assets can’t adapt (for free).

    I think this may miss the point. Capital in general may be thought of as a “thing”. It is not an individual. It is (probably) the principal resource used by individuals – or, when acting together, by “firms” – when they adapt. Capital is “consumed” in many ways, of which adaptation is one.

    This brings me to an allied point – the point where capital and individuals come together: in the mind. The really truly brilliant thing about education is that, while it is a form of capital, it is not merely self-replicating but self-expanding and self-realising. Investment in education offers increasing returns both horizontally (the more people that are educated, the better off they all are) and vertically (the deeper the educational quality, the greater the quality of its output). Because learning survives across time and space, it is not subject to the same rates of attrition as other forms of capital. It is possible that because learning is characteristically incremental (in other words knowledge is seldom discarded or subject to obsolescence in the same way as physical capital), the rate of “appreciation/depreciation” of knowledge is nearly always positive. This accounts for the exponential increase in and diversity of knowledge since we began to actively invest in education.

  • 25
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    Crikey has an article on how if you are an Australian citizen and if you get killed by an Obama drone, you are on your own

    That absolutely sucks. I was strongly considering going on a holiday to Helmand Provice next month.

  • 26
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

    Player One
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:06 pm | PERMALINK
    So stop talking out of your arse you unpleasant grub.

    You don’t like people pointing out how little you appear know about your beloved ALP, do you?

    And when you get caught out, you get all potty-mouthed.

    Kezza2 nailed you last night

    In your dreams.

    I knew that rule without needing to look it up. It has been in effect for years and has become less and less relevant.

    So what has kezza2′s misandrist ravings last night got to do with anything?

  • 27
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

    BW

    Crikey has an article on how if you are an Australian citizen and if you get killed by an Obama drone, you are on your own.

    Aren’t you dead either way?

  • 28
    badcat
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    ShowsOn

    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    Crikey has an article on how if you are an Australian citizen and if you get killed by an Obama drone, you are on your own

    That absolutely sucks. I was strongly considering going on a holiday to Helmand Provice next month.

    —————————————————

    Hope its not to attend a wedding ;)

  • 29
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

    @political_alert: NSW Opposition Leader John Robertson says new Cabinet shows the Liberal Government is in disarray: http://t.co/HL6Ggy3qNK #NSWpol

  • 30
    Centre
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    Player 1 @ post 14,

    Um, I wish you hadn’t linked to Kezza’s post.

    What a shocker!

  • 31
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

    Dio

    Yep. That’s the point.

    SO
    I strongly recommend that you visit Helmand province. Having cost us squillions of dollars you can rest assured that a stay in one of Helmand Province’s traditional holiday spas will be both restful and recuperative.

  • 32
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

    ruawake@16

    Organisations need to be in a state of constant reform. The world is not static, it is dynamic.

    If the old fossils of the Stasis parties want to stop the world turning, good luck to them.

    Exactly!

    And Labor dropped the ball for a while. Time to catch up and leave the others for dead.

  • 33
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    The deal announced last week between the Australia Network and Shanghai Media Group will give the Australia Network the most extensive access to Chinese audiences by any Western broadcaster.

    The contract puts further pressure on the Abbott Government not to break another election promise by cutting the Australia Network.

    http://jasonclare.com.au/media/portfolio-releases/1854-australia-network-china-deal-puts-pressure-on-tony-abbott-to-keep-his-promise.html

  • 34
    Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    Labor should find it relatively easy to win over voters. The fact that Labor is struggling highlights the need for reform. It should be the conservatives who have trouble convincing the majority of voters that they have the answers:

    - they want to dismantle Medicare
    - they want to further privatise education and health care. The additional costs for families would dwarf the impact of the dreaded ‘carbon tax’.
    - if you are an employee below executive level then the conservatives and their main backers think you’re paid too much and have too much bargaining power at work
    - likewise, they think of overtime, penalty rates, leave and so forth are far too generous and need to be wound back or abolished
    - they want to offload more of the tax burden onto PAYE taxpayers and the GST

  • 35
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    I’d put to John Robertson that Australia is in disarray for a multitude of reasons.

  • 36
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    What exactly is ‘Labor’ now ?

  • 37
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    @lizzie/33

    I wonder if that’s Abbott’s own goal, make Abbott look more silly than he already does to the international audience, and now directly to Chinese audience.

  • 38
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

    If Bullock is the answer then are the Unions the question?

  • 39
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

    Age Pension now under attack:
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/pensioners-ask-pm-for-answers-on-budget/story-fn3dxiwe-1226892017883

  • 40
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    ShowsOn@22

    Abbott is farqued
    The Liberals are farqued
    The Nationals are farqued
    The Coalition is farqued
    Barry O’Farrell is farqued

    Good, we can all put our feet up and relax now. :lol:

  • 41
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    Lordy.

    Looks like Abbott will get the triple:
    (1) He will be able to run on the carbon tax two elections in a row
    (2) He will get to keep the direct action funds
    (3) He will get to do what he really wants about climate change: nothing at all.

    He certainly makes his own luck.

  • 42
    CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    shellbell

    What a f#ck up …

    And I seem to have consigned my daughter to same.

    She’s a Senior Associate at S&”x” in London.

    I expect 6,000 Pounds will be needed for the next step (It’s just an exchange that in the end costs nothing as she is an only child).

  • 43
    Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

    Further to my #34, if you work in the public sector then the conservatives and their backers despise you, think you’re a bludger and want to sack you.

    If fir any reason you have to depend upon social security, they despise you, think you’re a bludger and want to cut your benefits. Age pensioners and veterans have been exceptions, but that is less certain now.

    If you believe climate change is a problem, they think you’re medieval.

    If you think racist or other bigoted talk is bad, they think you’re an enemy of free speech.

  • 44
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:37 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar #38

    Stupidity is the question.

  • 45
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:37 pm | Permalink

    Once again, putting their own slaves in the chairs:
    http://delimiter.com.au/2014/04/22/nbn-co-demotes-master-fttp-architect/

  • 46
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

    24
    briefly

    From the previous thread…

    1332
    Libertarian Unionist

    I think it may also be the case that education is usually a self-monetising investment, considered from the viewpoint of the economy as a whole. Learning generates returns that easily exceed the costs of its creation and distribution. As time goes on, the costs of providing learning are also falling, being yet another instance of the key properties of learning – its capacity for self-propagation and, allied to this, the increasing returns to scale available to knowledge-rich economies.

  • 47
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

    Rex

    Labor has survived for over a century because it (eventually) adapts to change.

    Otherwise it would still be advocating solely on behalf of shearers…

  • 48
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

    Abbott’s transparency and openness at work

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/stopping-stop-tony-meow-how-web-plugin-caught-the-department-of-prime-ministers-attention-20140422-zqxuu.html?utm_content=buffercaffd&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

  • 49
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    @albericie Tune in tonight for exclusive interview with Abbott Govt's chief business adviser, Maurice Newman #auspol

  • 50
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    “@PaulBongiorno: Soon on @channeltennews Bill Shorten takes on the crooks and thugs. Who will win?”

    Well thats a good look for Shorten

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