tip off

Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

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  • 51
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    I see that Mundine has figured out that the way to close the gap is to spend a lot less money on closing the gap and making sure that as much of that money as possible goes to the private sector.

    He has also started using an Indigenous first name so perhaps he is closing the gap that way.

    I wonder how the Coalition keeps finding rope-a-dopes such as Ruddock, Hunt, Turnbull and Mundine who lead the charge on trashing the things they once held near and dear?

    Perhaps they have been offered knighthoods?

  • 52
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

    @lizzie/49

    Maurice hasn’t done anything since he was appointed, while more jobs are still going, not very “business adviser” is he?

  • 53
    shellbell
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:45 pm | Permalink

    I did not know Brad Hazzard was a lawyer.

    No doubt he is better than a University medallist in Mark Speakman SC

  • 54
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    zoomster

    ‘change’ is such an open ended term

    ‘be careful what you wish for’ is another term that comes to mind….

  • 55
    Player One
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    bemused@26


    Player One
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:06 pm | PERMALINK
    So stop talking out of your arse you unpleasant grub.

    You don’t like people pointing out how little you appear know about your beloved ALP, do you?

    And when you get caught out, you get all potty-mouthed.

    Kezza2 nailed you last night


    In your dreams.

    I knew that rule without needing to look it up. It has been in effect for years and has become less and less relevant.

    So what has kezza2′s misandrist ravings last night got to do with anything?

    Because kezza2 pointed out that you are a little man with a big hatred for anyone outside your own teeny-weeny little faction of the ALP.

    You are prepared to slag off anyone – including past and present party leaders – and also misrepresent what is clearly current ALP rules – if you think it will help your position.

    Kezza2 pointed out that it is precisely people like you who have brought the ALP into its present parlous state.

    And every time you get up to your old tricks, I will repost kezza2′s masterly demolition of you and what you stand for.

  • 56
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    Wonder why there is not a comments section for this article ? :)

    Stopping 'Stop Tony Meow': how web plug-in caught the Department of Prime Minister's attention

    Staff at the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet have spent more than 130 pages talking about a web plug-in that replaces pictures of Tony Abbott with ‘‘cute kittens’’

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/stopping-stop-tony-meow-how-web-plugin-caught-the-department-of-prime-ministers-attention-20140422-zqxuu.html#ixzz2zay1vhHw

  • 57
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    …and what becomes of the vast majority of good union people who are being tarred from all sides with the nasty brush ?

  • 58
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    Briefly, I think we are in very close agreement on the complex nature of economies and the role of knowledge, as a transferable and ever-expanding form of capital, at the top of the hierarchy.

    I was (clumsily) making the (ambiguous) point that investment in tangibles still plays a large part in most productive activities. In my head, I was implying that mis-allocation on the scale we seem to be seeing atm — e.g. extractive industries here, housing and steel production in China — is going to cause some real concerns in the near-ish future (but I’m not sure that anyone could have inferred that from what I had written!)

  • 59
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord

    Maurice watches to make sure that no money, absolutely none, will be spent on the environment/climate mitigation.

  • 60
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

    @lizzie/59

    Then perhaps he should be paid less then?

  • 61
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

    FB…

    http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/21/real-innovation-wind-energy/

    thanks…interesting

  • 62
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    58...Libertarian Unionist

    I concur!!!

  • 63
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord

    I’m sure that Tony believes that it is a very, very important function that will save Australian businesses from going down the gurgler. :/

  • 64
    caf
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    Libertarian Unionist:

    (From last thread) Microsoft wasn’t pinged for having a monopoly per se – it was pinged for using that monopoly to try and gain an unfair advantage in other markets.

    In the widget example that you were discussing, it would be like the monopoly widget manufacturer saying “with every 3 widgets, you get a FREE gadget!”. Since the widget manufacturer is a monopolist, it can simply hide the cost of the “free” gadgets in the price charged for the widgets, and thereby drive all the existing gadget manufacturers out of business too.

  • 65
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    My father, who has voted Liberal all my life, sent Tony Abbott telling him he will never vote Liberal again unless they change their policies.

    The two policies he is irate about; bringing back knights and dames, and removing transparency of financial advisors.

  • 66
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    54
    Rex Douglas

    zoomster

    ‘change’ is such an open ended term

    ‘be careful what you wish for’ is another term that comes to mind….

    Democratisation will induce cultural change inside the ALP and unions too. This can only be a good thing.

  • 67
    badcat
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    CTar1

    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    shellbell

    What a f#ck up …

    And I seem to have consigned my daughter to same.

    She’s a Senior Associate at S&”x” in London.

    I expect 6,000 Pounds will be needed for the next step (It’s just an exchange that in the end costs nothing as she is an only child).

    —————————————————

    100 GBP for her – and 5900 GBP baggagefee for being a Kombi driver

  • 68
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    Player One@55

    bemused@26

    Player One
    Because kezza2 pointed out that you are a little man with a big hatred for anyone outside your own teeny-weeny little faction of the ALP.

    You are prepared to slag off anyone – including past and present party leaders – and also misrepresent what is clearly current ALP rules – if you think it will help your position.

    Kezza2 pointed out that it is precisely people like you who have brought the ALP into its present parlous state.

    And every time you get up to your old tricks, I will repost kezza2′s masterly demolition of you and what you stand for.

    You must be on the sauce like kezza2.

    I am not a member of any faction so there goes your, and her, basic premise.

    I think Shorten is doing OK and wish him well.

    Having said that, if he does things I disagree with, I will say so.

    Keep reposting that rubbish as long as you wish to embarrass kezza2. It doesn’t bother me in the least.

  • 69
    bug1
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    “What exactly is ‘Labor’ now ?” – Rex Douglas

    ‘Labor is people’, it is what the members say it is, rather than the factional elites.

    (i hope)

  • 70
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    @albericie Tune in tonight for exclusive interview with Abbott Govt's chief business adviser, Maurice Newman #auspol

    …speaking of dinosaurs.

  • 71
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    Briefly, good chat today.

    I get a little annoyed (and a bit screechy) at the mistaken conflation of costs and prices, and the claim that they are equal, for any particular good. Education, as a specific example, is cheaper than ever to produce (care for a MOOC, anyone?). Yet the price of providing it in developed countries continues to rise. So what’s going on?

    Now I should make a point about positional goods and rent-skimmers… but I’ve got to run. Have a lovely evening.

  • 72
    Player One
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    bemused@68

    Player One@55

    bemused@26

    Player One
    Because kezza2 pointed out that you are a little man with a big hatred for anyone outside your own teeny-weeny little faction of the ALP.

    You are prepared to slag off anyone – including past and present party leaders – and also misrepresent what is clearly current ALP rules – if you think it will help your position.

    Kezza2 pointed out that it is precisely people like you who have brought the ALP into its present parlous state.

    And every time you get up to your old tricks, I will repost kezza2′s masterly demolition of you and what you stand for.

    Keep reposting that rubbish as long as you wish to embarrass kezza2. It doesn’t bother me in the least.

    Oh, don’t worry – I will. Partly because it so obviously does.

  • 73
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

    …and what becomes of the vast majority of good union people who are being tarred from all sides with the nasty brush ?

    I reject the premise of your question. The ALP is not tarring the vast majority.

    Good try Rex. Why don’t you go back and get further instructions from Gerard and the Menzies House mob?

  • 74
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

    Microsoft wasn’t pinged for having a monopoly per se – it was pinged for using that monopoly to try and gain an unfair advantage in other markets.

    Right, if that’s not what I said, it’s what I meant to say. It’s not the monopoly, it’s the abuse of market power. Hate the sin… nah, I’ll stick with Ubuntu; )

  • 75
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    Interesting article on innovations in harnessing and commercialising wind energy …

    http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/21/real-innovation-wind-energy/

  • 76
    Bar Bar
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    Aw Boerwar: Loved this, exactly what I was thinking, thank you thank you:

    [I]Lordy.

    Looks like Abbott will get the triple:
    (1) He will be able to run on the carbon tax two elections in a row
    (2) He will get to keep the direct action funds
    (3) He will get to do what he really wants about climate change: nothing at all.

    He certainly makes his own luck.[/I]

    BW – Watching him this arvo I wondered what will profiteth Labor if the Big PUP climbs into its bed?

  • 77
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

    Bar Bar

    Isn’t the price on carbon due to be phased out anyway?

  • 78
    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    Fran.

    My friend’s response.

    I do like Fran and you are right in calling it elegant argument. Perhaps being ünable to remember”in a selective way could be changed in Law as a not being a defence.

    It is different from saying nothing at all in Law ( on the grounds of incrimination) it is lying under oath.

    I wonder what Fran does for a living- quite the best I have read on the subject. Will show to Gordon. xx D

  • 79
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    Rex

    Labor cannot hope to be one of the natural parties of government if all it does is represent 18% – or even 30% – of people.

  • 80
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

    Lynchpin

    Carbon price due to go from fixed price to floating market price at the end of this financial year.

  • 81
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    zoomster

    Do you think that as the realities of climate change hits, voters will become even more conservative (right wing) in their attitudes? A bit like battening down in time of war.

  • 82
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    Player One@72


    Oh, don’t worry – I will. Partly because it so obviously does.

    Go for it!

  • 83
    frednk
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

    Rex

    Labor has survived for over a century because it (eventually) adapts to change.

    Otherwise it would still be advocating solely on behalf of shearers…

    As production is no longer a long line of people perhaps the rethink should include what to do about the structure of unions as well.

    shearers->manufacturing->service

    What has to change for unions to represent the service sector is probable a question that should be asked.

    The AMA seems to do a good job.

  • 84
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    58....Libertarian Unionist

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambridge_capital_controversy

    I think the Anglo-Italians were on to something.

  • 85
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    zoomster #79

    Well, when Labor inevitably lurches to the right that percentage will be higher.

  • 86
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 9m
    God willing, Bill's reforms will mean people like Bill are not preselected.

    Isn’t that a little hard?

  • 87
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    71....Libertarian Unionist

    Yes, a good hit-out. See you soon!

  • 88
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

    lizzie

    Doubt it. In war, people unite against the common foe and accept hardships more readily as a result, even when the cause looks hopeless.

  • 89
    lizzie
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    zoomster

    Well, the Coalition sure know how to inflict hardship.

  • 90
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

    Rex

    as I keep pointing out, the ALP isn’t naturally a party of the left.

    I doubt many of the shearers under the tree at Barcaldine were ‘progressives’.

    Having – as Labor did for decades – a protectionist stance on migration and industry is scarcely leftist or progressive.

    If you are worried about Labor lurching to the Right, then yes, we should focus on union members, many of whom (the CFMEU, for example) are further to the right than the average Australian.

  • 91
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

    lizzie@86


    Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 9m
    God willing, Bill’s reforms will mean people like Bill are not preselected.


    Isn’t that a little hard?

    Why? Does he elaborate anywhere?

  • 92
    ajm
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

    lizzie

    Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 9m
    God willing, Bill's reforms will mean people like Bill are not preselected.

    Isn’t that a little hard?

    Just got to keep in mind that Mumble is a conservative and hates unions. Just because he’s occasionally perceptive and reasonable you shouldn’t be deceived about his fundamental views.

  • 93
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

    A clarification to 90 — it certainly has become ‘lefter’ with time, largely an outcome of the Vietnam war movement.

  • 94
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

    Lizzie

    Isn’t that a little hard?

    Which bit? Shorten not being pre-selected or God’s role in it? ;-)

  • 95
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    Does Rex like anything? :lol:

  • 96
    frednk
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    One should remember that the White Australia Policy and mandatory detention were both Labor inventions.

    The problem for Labor is the greens are starting to eat their lunch from the left.

  • 97
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    [Essential Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 41 (-1) ALP 37 (0) GRN 11 (+1) PUP 5 (+1) #auspol

  • 98
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:36 pm | Permalink

    Most people are in the centre.

    The thing to remember is the centre is around about the majority that support equal rights and oppose bigotry.

    Australians support our industrial relations system, Medicare, Equal (gay) marriage and the list goes on.

    None of that is “left”

    don’t buy the right wing hype that they are in the centre

  • 99
    Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:39 pm | Permalink

    In a sense, Labor should represent those who it always has – workers. These days they are mainly white collar, many are University educated and most work outside of the traditional, highly unionised occupations. Some have retired, some are in education, some performing home duties or are carers. Some through misfortune or disability are unable to work even though they would like to.

    But they believe in a fair day’s work in whatever they do for a fair days’ pay, a fair go for all in all areas of life, the best possible start for young Australians through excellence in education. And also a helping hand for those who fall behind – because of economic restructure, disability or health crisis.

    They can’t pay lobbyists or advertising agencies to press their cause. They are not opposed to people getting wealthy through honest hard work, being smart or even being lucky. Good look to them they say. But these people don’t need subsidies, concessions or special privileges.

    As for the broader country and the wider world, they want a stable economy, fair, sensible taxation, a sensible foreign policy, fair trade abroad and at home, credible national defence and a constructive role for their country on the world stage.

    Compare that with what the conservatives want and who they support.

  • 100
    bemused
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

    guytaur@98

    Most people are in the centre.

    Define the term ‘centre’ please?

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