tip off

BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

A closer look at the parties’ polling fortunes this term state-by-state, in lieu of much to go on in the way of new polling over Easter.

Easter has meant that only the regular weekly pollsters have reported this week, which means Essential Research and Morgan. The latter polls weekly but reports fortnightly, which I deal with by dividing each fortnightly result into two data points, each with half the published sample size. Neither Essential nor Morgan is radically off beam, so this week’s movements involve a correction after last week’s Greens outlier from Nielsen. This is not to say that Nielsen’s Greens surge was measuring nothing at all, the 17% result perhaps having been partly a reflection of it being the poll most proximate to the WA Senate election. In fact, both of the new results this week find the Greens at their highest level since at least the last election, and probably a good while earlier. Their 11% rating in Essential may not appear too spectacular, but it comes from what is the worst polling series for them by some distance – indeed, the only one the BludgerTrack model does not deem to be biased in their favour. Nonetheless, their rating in BludgerTrack this week comes off 1.8% on last week’s Nielsen-driven peak.

The dividend from the Greens’ loss has been divided between other parties in such a way as to produce essentially no change on two-party preferred. However, state relativities have changed in such a way as to cost Labor three seats and its projected majority, illustrating once again the sensitivity of Queensland, where a 0.8% shift has made two seats’ worth of difference. The New South Wales result has also shifted 0.6% to the Coalition, moving a third seat back into their column. Another change worth noting is a 2.4% move to Labor in Tasmania, which is down to a methodological change – namely the inclusion, for Tasmania only, of the state-level two-party preferred results that Morgan has taken to publishing. I had not been putting this data to use thus far, as the BludgerTrack model runs off primary votes and the figures in question are presumably respondent-allocated preferences besides. However, the paucity of data for Tasmania is such that I’ve decided it’s worth my while to extract modelled primary votes from Morgan’s figures, imperfect though they may be. The change has not made any difference to the seat projection, this week at least.

Finally, I’ve amused myself by producing primary vote and two-party preferred trendlines for each of the five mainland states, which you can see below. These suggest that not too much has separated New South Wales and Victoria in the changes recorded over the current term, leaving aside their very different starting points. However, whereas the Coalition has had a very gentle upward trend this year in Victoria and perhaps also New South Wales, their decline looks to have resumed lately in Queensland. Last week I noted that six successive data points I was aware of had Labor ahead on two-party preferred in Queensland, including five which are in the model and a Morgan result which is not. That’s now extended to eight with the availability of two further data points this week. The other eye-catching result in the charts below is of course from Western Australia, which clearly shows the effects of the Senate election with respect to both the Greens and Palmer United. The current gap between Labor and the Greens is such that the latter could well win lower house seats at Labor’s expense on these numbers – not that I recommend holding my breath waiting for that to happen.

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  • 51
    Player One
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    bemused@23

    From previous thread:
    bemused@1110 on Morgan: 52-48 to Labor | The Poll Bludger

    You are not merely a grub, but a disgraceful grub!

    You know damn well that I abhor violence toward women and children in any form.

    For the record, Rosie Batty indicated that her ex was aggressive, abusive and violent toward her, but never her son until that dreadful event and she had believed he would never harm their son.

    I have no problem with competent women being in authority and some of the best bosses I have ever had were women.

    I have also supported and campaigned for women candidates.

    Yes, someone here has a problem, and that is you! And your problem is dealing with the truth.

    Yes, yes. We get it bemused. You believe violence against women only occurs in the presence of mental illness, becasue .. because … well, men just wouldn’t do that unless they were mentally ill and therefore not responsible for their actions, would they?

  • 52
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    @cdivakaruni: My fave Shakespearean insult: “I would challenge thee to a battle of wits, but I see thou art unarmed. MT @mashable http://t.co/zReAyiPiu9

  • 53
    PeeBee
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    Brendan O’Neill on QANDA last Monday said he was a Marxist and also mentioned that environmentalists as being authoritarian (or WTTE). He said he was an Marxist because they were for producing stuff and thinking about it, that made sense because when Marx was alive, making stuff increased prosperity particularly to the people on the bottom of the economic heap.

    Of course when Marx was a live, the industrial revolution was just starting and environmental problems weren’t much of a concern (apart from sanitation and its effect on public health).

    Now with so much stuff being produced by so many people, we see that the environment is not an endless sink for pollution and we are experiencing problems with global warming, species extinction etc. China has increased producing stuff and now has to deal with the environmental issues such as poor air quality.

    I can therefore understand Brendan’s vehemence on environmentalists as they are asking for restraint on producing stuff, something that his ideology won’t allow him to accept.

    Brendan should perhaps think about his stance and, rather than dismiss environmentalists, open his mind up to the other (unintended)consequences of unrestrained production. Greater material prosperity may not be such a good thing if the planet cannot sustain us.

    But for him it is easier to dismiss environmentalists to investigate at what they are telling him.

  • 54
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: Joe Hockey has flagged long-term changes to the age pension. We speak with @COTAAustralia in 10 minutes http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #auspol”

  • 55
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    45....guytaur

    If he really believes this we are in the hands of idiots.

  • 56
    Darn
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    The breakfast boys on 3aw this morning were asking their listeners to ring in and say whether they support Hockey’s call for a “we” not “me” attitude towards the budget, or whether they want to tell him to “get nicked”. About ten calls were taken (no doubt there were many more who didn’t get on) and every one told him to get nicked, some with obvious hostility.

    Remembering that this is a radio station with a very conservative listening audience me thinks Joe might be biting off more than he can chew with this one.

  • 57
    Player One
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    Darn@56


    Remembering that this is a radio station with a very conservative listening audience me thinks Joe might be biting off more than he can chew with this one.

    “Jowls” Hockey bite off more than he can chew?

    Impossible, surely?

  • 58
    Player One
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-24/joint-strike-fighter-price-coming-down-says-lockheed-martin/5408270

    Jeez! Of course the price of the F-35 is coming down! That’s because they’ve just managed to unload another 58 of the damn useless things on us!

  • 59
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    Darn

    I get the feeling that we Melburnians are not too impressed with Hockey and his North shore cronies

  • 60
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    53....PeeBee

    A Marxist? How quaint! Considering Marxist descriptions of and predictions about capitalist economies have generally been wrong, he would be better to review his own starting points than to ally denialism with marxism. Instead of enlisting isms he might try logic instead.

  • 61
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    @political_alert: Shadow Finance Minister @Tony_Burke will hold a doorstop on the Abbott Government’s ‘twisted’ budget priorities, 12:30pm, Sydney #auspol

  • 62
    Steve777
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    Many of the people on low and medium incomes who voted Liberal thought that only public servants, people on the dole, asylum seekers and others they would call ‘bludgers’ would suffer, while they would be OK.

  • 63
    Darn
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 7:22 am | PERMALINK
    With a poor start by the Libs it’s amazing the figures aren’t worse. If the figures don’t shift after the budget I expect Tony Burke will be Oppo leader by Christmas. he has apparently impressed (lisp and all) with his combative approach against the government.

    Nice try Edwina but no cigar – and please stop denying that you are a closet Liberal. It’s so bloody obvious.

  • 64
    Darn
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:19 am | PERMALINK
    Darn

    I get the feeling that we Melburnians are not too impressed with Hockey and his North shore cronies

    That’s for sure Vic – and I don’t think it’s confined to just Melbourne.

  • 65
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    Vale Barry O’Keefe, Johnny’s brother and former ICAC commissioner

  • 66
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    Joe wants to give us all “the opportunity to work”. Been there, done that, Joe. I worked past 65 and borrowed a little money to give me some super and a part pension. Without the PBS and Medicare, OH and I would be in great difficulty. Now I’m scared of the future.

    In a key note speech just weeks ahead of his first budget, the Treasurer has railed against the unsustainability of the age pension, the growing cost of aged care services, and the drain on the budget from the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, which he noted was weighed down with 80 per cent of its costs coming from concessional usage.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nothing-is-free-joe-hockey-warns-of-budget-pain-with-pensions-in-the-firing-line-20140423-zqyaq.html#ixzz2zl6LlhRM

  • 67
    Pegasus
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    SA Greens senator Penny Wright: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/24/let-us-bring-the-anzac-spirit-home

    Progressive thinkers tend to demur from any discussion of Australia’s military history. It's a shame, as there is much to embrace without glorifying the idea of war

  • 68
    psyclaw
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:30 am | Permalink

    Andrew Neil of The Spectator, a conservative UK journo gave Hockey a good grilling last night at his speech.

    Then on Lateline Neil scoffed about Hockey, especially Hockey’s manufactured budget emergency and fatally-huge-deficit claims.

    Neil said that the finance ministers of most countries (and he listed many of them …. mainly G8 ones) would give their right arm to have an economy as “troubled” as Australia’s, and the relatively paltry level of debt Australia has.

    So Hockey has several problems.

    1) Abbott’s insistence on entitlement for wealthy mothers with the PPL

    2) The cat is slowly escaping the bag regarding the “emergency”

    3) Other countries are viewing him disparagingly

    4) he’s finding it hard to sell his strategy that there’s more $ gain to be made by hitting the many on the poorer end of the scale than the few at the top end

    5) Having a jerk as a leader

    Joe will need all the luck in the world to sell his budget. Expect many whining post-budget interviews from him.

  • 69
    Roger Miller
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:31 am | Permalink

    Fran at 15
    Exactly what I was thinking as I watched Hockey.
    Everything
    I am happy to wear the label “Economic Crisis Denier” no matter the religious connotations. The Coalition can’t seem to find many economists to support their crisis.

  • 70
    Pegasus
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    Huffington Post articles on JSF: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/joint-strike-fighter/

    Including aptly titled: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/reese-schonfeld/military-masturbation_b_3690865.html

    We've agreed to pay $226.8 million on planes that have not yet been approved for service while the Taliban is spending a couple of hundred dollars on IEDs that "caused 2,500 civilian casualties and more than 4,100 casualties among Afghan forces in 2012" and are the principal cause of the withdrawal of our troops from Afghanistan next year. Al Qaeda and the Taliban, with Iran's help, have developed a weapon that has forced us to withdraw our forces from both Iraq and now Afghanistan.

    We are in the process of developing a new, high-tech, semi-invisible airplane that we may someday have to use against some other force that will have developed a weapon that is better than any of the other war planes we are now flying -- that is better than the F-16, which currently dominates air warfare. That's $226.8 million against a $200 weapon that's beating us right now.

    It seems to me the military is existing in its own cocoon -- a dream world, preparing for a war that will be won in the air while we are still losing real wars fought on the ground. In other words, the military is playing with itself while real life NATO soldiers, Afghan civilians and troops and all sorts of Iraqis are dying in real wars, to say nothing of Syrians. It's time for reality to seep into the Pentagon.

  • 71
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    Joe & Co continue to bang on about jobs, but there are little jobs…..

    Budget is money saving exercise!

  • 72
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    which he noted was weighed down with 80 per cent of its costs coming from concessional usage.

    Shock, horror! A scheme which is meant to deliver cheaper pharmaceuticals to those who need it is weighted in favour of those who need cheaper pharmaceuticals…

    When hubby got his job, despite the fact I was still disabled and unable to work myself, I had to pay the standard cost for my medication…whilst understandably a little grumpy about this, I accepted that that’s what happens — when you don’t need the subsidy any more, nice though it is, you don’t get it.

  • 73
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    A sensible solution from the Green?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-greens-model-millionaire-taxes-for-tony-abbott-and-his-rich-friends-20140423-zqy9f.html#ixzz2zkgjI8J9

  • 74
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:47 am | Permalink

    shellbell

    Not only was Barry the brother of Johnny O’Keefe but their father was the owner of RM O’Keefe a large furniture company in Rushcutter’s Bay from memory. My Mum and Dad bought some of their furniture from them.

    End of an era!

  • 75
    rossmcg
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    The Tories really are a puzzle.
    On the one hand we have joe talking tough on pensions me health costs and on the other Abbott sticking to his guns on his PPL scheme.
    Then we have the “doctor tax” which will simply put six bucks in the hands of the doctors and may, may, some time down the track if some crystal ball gazer is right, reduce the number of people getting a bulk billed free consultation. I have my doubts.
    I reckon that for all his tough talk, Hockey will just tinker at the edges. He knows that pension cuts are electoral poison so I expect anything he does will be phased in over a long period, largely leaving existing beneficiaries untouched. Even Labor’s pension age of 67 won’t apply till 2023.
    The PBS could do with some attention. a couple can have an income somewhere north of $60,000 and still get a part pension and get cheap prescriptions. That is a bit generous in my book.

  • 76
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    If Joe Hockey believes in “we”not “me” he could easily give back some of his salary and not accept his superannuation.

    What a lot of bull dust!

  • 77
    Player One
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    The PBS could do with some attention.

    I’d be surprised if they do much to the PBS in the budget, given that the PBS will be taken down once the the TPP is in place. That’s one of it’s main targets. The other is intellectual property.

    From http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-20/gleeson-negotiating-our-health-in-tpp-talks/5105300

    The leaked text, dated August 30, 2013, shows that the United States is continuing to push for extreme intellectual property privileges that would expand and prolong patent monopolies at the expense of affordable access to medicines.

    Why more people are not up in arms that such negotiations are going on in secret, and we will not know what Abbott has signed us up for until until the agreement is signed, is completely beyond me.

  • 78
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    Brendan O’Neill on QANDA last Monday said he was a Marxist...

    Well, that made me laugh! Marx Bros, perhaps?

  • 79
    A Good Lurk
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:12 am | Permalink

    rossmcg,

    My understanding it that the idea is to reduce the Medicare rebate to doctors from $36 to $30 – leaving the doctors to do the dirty work (i.e. administration and explanation).
    My wife and I (and disabled daughter) exist on my self funded pension plus Centrelink payouts a total of around $60000pa. My chemist cost are at least $60/month – under six months to reach the “free zone” (for which I paid a lot of tax during my professional life). Of course we could turn our child over to the “authorities” and they could spend around $ 200 000 pa caring for her.
    We need perspective, not punitive disincentives.

  • 80
    rossmcg
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    Agl

    Your suggestion that the Medicare rebate is to be reduced is news to me. I don’t think doctors will wear that.
    I take if from your explanation that you pay $60 a month for six months and then your medicines are free. Given your circumstances that seems reasonable. But I suspect your situation is the exception rather than the rule.

  • 81
    mari
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    A Good Lurk 78

    How many more like you? My best wished to you and your family I listed another family I know last night also in a similar position.

  • 82
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    That it took an overseas journo to question/criticise Hockey shows up how inbred our local journos are.

  • 83
    kakuru
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    Brendan O’Neill on QANDA last Monday said he was a Marxist...

    My wife had a more precise term. She called him a Wanker.

    My wife is American. It’s the first time I’ve heard her use the word “wanker”. She nailed it.

  • 84
    don
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    lizzie@82

    That it took an overseas journo to question/criticise Hockey shows up how inbred our local journos are.

    Lizzie, I wonder how many of them think that their jobs are at stake if they question the Libs too aggressively?

  • 85
    kakuru
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:29 am | Permalink

    don:

    Lizzie, I wonder how many of them think that their jobs are at stake if they question the Libs too aggressively?

    My thoughts exactly. There’s a lot of treading on eggshells.

  • 86
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    ‘Doctor Tax’

    A two-word slogan? I like it.

    It feeds into pre-judgements about the Liberals and public health.

    It is much ado about practically nothing in the context of the budget as a whole over forward estimates.

    Plus, it is completely devoid of policy content, which makes it even better.

    Given the level of public policy debate since the Rudd/Abbott Age, this one is a WINNER.

  • 87
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    I see the Bludger Greens are still doing Defence Policy debate by criticising any and all defence expenditure.

  • 88
    PeeBee
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:35 am | Permalink

    Kakuru,

    ‘Brendan O’Neill on QANDA last Monday said he was a Marxist…

    My wife had a more precise term. She called him a Wanker.’

    I got more or less the same impression. He may have only described himself as a Marxist to give himself more ‘cred’. I did not hear anything that would make me think he wasn’t one of Rupert’s toadies, pushing Rupert’s cause.

  • 89
    PeeBee
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:35 am | Permalink

    Kakuru,

    ‘Brendan O’Neill on QANDA last Monday said he was a Marxist…

    My wife had a more precise term. She called him a Wanker.’

    I got more or less the same impression. He may have only described himself as a Marxist to give himself more ‘cred’. I did not hear anything that would make me think he wasn’t one of Rupert’s toadies, pushing Rupert’s cause.

  • 90
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:43 am | Permalink

    …and, of course, if you’re still a Marxist when the rest of the intelligent world have moved on, you’re not being hip and with it, just pathetic…

  • 91
    kakuru
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    PeeBee:

    got more or less the same impression. He may have only described himself as a Marxist to give himself more ‘cred’. I did not hear anything that would make me think he wasn’t one of Rupert’s toadies, pushing Rupert’s cause.

    For a “Marxist”, O’Neill sure sounded suspiciously like a loyal worker bee from the NewsCorp hive-mind.

  • 92
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 11:52 am | Permalink

    Quite amazing, isn’t it, how desperately this govt is trying to hang onto the perks (particularly the super tax concessions of the rich). They will torch the elderly who vote for them before they will do anything (and I mean anything) to hurt their mates in finance.

  • 93
    lizzie
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

    don and kakuru

    Yes, mostly a group of frightened little lapdogs. Even when they get all brave and aggressive in a tweet, they scurry back to broadcast from their comfortable baskets when they’re on air.

  • 94
    Player One
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@92

    Quite amazing, isn’t it, how desperately this govt is trying to hang onto the perks (particularly the super tax concessions of the rich). They will torch the elderly who vote for them before they will do anything (and I mean anything) to hurt their mates in finance.

    I don’t find that amazing at all. What I do find amazing is the number of idiots who voted for them expecting anything different!

  • 95
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 12:01 pm | Permalink

    ‘Brendan O’Neill on QANDA last Monday said he was a Marxist…

    My wife had a more precise term. She called him a Wanker.’

    A few years ago on QandA, O’Neil, who was fresh off the boat from the motherland, told Stephen Mayne that if he didn’t like News Corp, he could start his own news service.

  • 96
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    The party Brendan O’Neill was on e associated with, in the 1980s, was Cliffite — a split from the SWP — but by the 1990s they had come to see Thatcher as an ally and had constructively abandoned Marxism in favour of provocateur behaviour and trendy publishing.

    All that was more than 20 years ago. They haven’t done any Marxism in a very ling time, and no party of the left would accept his claims to Marxism. He’s simply a right wing dilettante and general poseur.

  • 97
    Jackol
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

    Also good from Eslake on Abbott’s PPL:

    But in my view, it will do next to nothing to lift either participation of women in the workforce or productivity of those who are in the workforce.

  • 98
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    It would be good if there was a game like Sim City for government.

    You too can be PM choose your sim cabinet and have your sim treasurer sell your budget.

    So far there is not an app for that

  • 99
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

    K17

    Re Preselection for Balmain:

    I heard a week or so ago that the money for the ALP candidate is on Darcy Byrne and if he does beat the Greens then Verity Firth will be in line to take the next Senate vacancy in NSW she will get the endorsement.

  • 100
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    He’s simply a right wing dilettante and general poseur.

    Or in one word, a wan…

    He edits a libertarian publication, ffs! He’s no Marxist — his type don’t accept any curbs to the economic power of corporations, for example.

    But he should get credit for his consistent anti-war stance.

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