tip off

BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

The only poll this week was Labor’s best result from Essential Research in nearly four years, but it hasn’t made much difference to the weekly poll aggregate.

Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).

As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.

2311
  • 751
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 12:30 am | Permalink

    Re that chap from the COA commenting with horror that on average Australians visit a GP 11 times each year who said “I just don’t think we’re that crook”. …

    As usual, these boss class types imagine they can utter throwaway lines like that without being called. Does he have an epidemiological study showing how crook we are? Has it been referenced on the report? Does it support his claims? I’m guessing not.

  • 752
    imacca
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 12:42 am | Permalink

    Does he have an epidemiological study showing how crook we are? Has it been referenced on the report? Does it support his claims? I’m guessing not.

    Of course he doesn’t. He’s just a born to rule arse-wipe giving the report he has been instructed to deliver.

    Problem the Libs will have with this is they seem to have timed it so that a scary report comes out, followed by a budget that will be less scary. They may well now be seen as squibbing on it if they do that.

  • 753
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 12:45 am | Permalink

    Apparently Canada Telco’s handing out private information to Canadian government.

    http://www.michaelgeist.ca/content/view/7117/125/

    *everything thing*

  • 754
    crikey whitey
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 1:23 am | Permalink

    Fran.

    Are you still about?

  • 755
    briefly
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 2:27 am | Permalink

    749
    daretotread

    Fredx

    I think that of ALL the Lib seats Hasluck is the safest BECAUSE Wyatt is indigenous. I doubt even Labor will go in strong.

    You’d be wrong about that. Labor will fight hard to win Hasluck.

  • 756
    briefly
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 2:40 am | Permalink

    752.....imacca

    Problem the Libs will have....

    is, first, they’re Libs; and second, they’ve just run the biggest and most telling scare campaign in history against themselves.

    This is their Rudd moment: they have just announced to the electorate that the Government they thought they had elected has been dumped from within. They are saying…”Don’t trust us, we’re a lying bunch of hotheads, ideologues and cheats.”

    The Newspoll result will be catastrophic for them…low 40′s 2PP at best. If they do anything nasty at all in the budget, people will assume ALL of the crazy stuff proposed by the CoA ad more will be just a matter of time. Their polling will collapse. They will then find they meet massive obstruction in the Senate. In less than a week they have utterly debased their own currency.

  • 757
    briefly
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 2:46 am | Permalink

    Maybe all those bludgers that whinge about Labor being Liberal-lite should pause and consider: social policy that Labor has spent the better part of a century enacting, defending and strengthening are about to be demolished by the LNP.

  • 758
    briefly
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 2:49 am | Permalink

    751
    Fran Barlow

    Re that chap from the COA commenting with horror that on average Australians visit a GP 11 times each year who said “I just don’t think we’re that crook”. ...

    He has just ignored about 30 years of health-messaging, encouraging primary care, encouraging people to go to their GP, to look after themselves…because prevention is always better and cheaper than more serious illness and hospitalisation.

    He is a complete f’g idiot.

  • 759
    briefly
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 4:12 am | Permalink

    727
    Edwina StJohn

    briefly i am sure the Liberals in WA are quaking in their boots – with 13 out of 15 seats.

    Lets say Labor reaches its highwater mark in QLD ie 50% of seats as per 1983 and 2007 – it still adds up to 16 seats out of 43. Labor still needs 60 out of 107 seats in the rest of the country or 56% of seats.

    After this week’s performance, the LNP would be down to Curtin, O’Connor, Tangney and maybe Durack. Pearce and even Forrest would be losable. Labor would win the rest – Fremantle, Perth, Brand, Cowan, Canning, Swan, Hasluck, Stirling, Moore. In a DD election, the LNP would get about 1/3 of the Senate vote and win at best 4 seats. They have done in one week what Labor have been unable to do in 30 years. The WA electorate is not in love with the LNP. They tolerate the Tories, at best. This is enough to really shake the tree.

    The LNP have just declared “We’re completely untrustworthy. Everything Labor has ever said about us is true. We want to wreck the place. Take it from us: we cheated our way into office and now we’re going to do exactly what we said we would never do.”

  • 760
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 5:29 am | Permalink

    Well Briefly, if that’s true then presumably we’ll see the Labor 2PV move out to at least 55% in the coming Newspoll. That should set the dogs barking.

  • 761
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 5:36 am | Permalink

    The Age headline

    Wrack

    Has any government ever received such headlines to a report.

    Briefly I am not sure the LNP will see that big of fall straight way but rather if the budget looks anything like this report and lets remember Howard did okay post the 1996 budget as the voters will give a tick to strong action but the risk for the government will be the slow burn as each person encounters the budget in action.

    Looking forward to the public’s reaction on this mornings talk back.

  • 762
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 5:49 am | Permalink

    CW

    Well another day dawns …

  • 763
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 5:51 am | Permalink

    Briefly

    Imdeed … It’s hard to believe such folk can appear in public on behalf of a ruling party. Shameful, really.

  • 764
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 5:51 am | Permalink

    Oops “indeed”

  • 765
    CTar1
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 6:03 am | Permalink

    Privatisations aalways gos well

    The Business Secretary wants to learn lessons from the affair, which provoked criticism that the taxpayer lost around £1 billion. Royal Mail shares soared in value after the sale and “priority” City investors chosen to bring long-term stability to the company sold almost half their stake at a profit of more than £300 million.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/vince-cable-orders-investigation-into-how-government-releases-shares-in-wake-of-royal-mail-selloff-9313190.html

  • 766
    fredex
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 6:04 am | Permalink

    The CoA scenario is a PR disaster for the COALition.

    This is who they have alienated – from the Age article of mexbeemer

    *High earners – extra .5% for Medicare levy
    – deficit tax ..sorry …levy
    Middle earners – forced off medicare
    Ordinary Aussies- extra payment for GP
    *Pensioners – house counted as means tested asset
    Families – changes to family benefits
    Unemployed – forced to move to the Black Stump
    Minimum wage earners – 44% of average wage – that’s poverty level
    *Farmers and miners – loss of diesel rebate

    There may be more I’ve omitted.

    The point is that several of these groups include specific groups that are/were the COALition’s major supporters [those marked *] and they’ve just been threatened by the party they support [ed].

    Not smart.

    And the Age clearly stated that the CoA was “Tony Abbott’s hand-picked National Commission of Audit” so they are sheeting the blame on to Tony’s mob.

    So how do PBers feel about maybe agreeing with Cory Bernardi? from The Age:

    That prompted Liberal senator Cory Bernardi to break ranks by lashing his own party for what would be an "appalling" breach of faith.
    "We went to an election promising no new taxes, no excuse, and no surprises; well, there certainly have been a few surprises already this week," he said....
    The brash comments are representative of a hostile mood in the Coalition party room over the proposed deficits tax and the Prime Minister's paid parental leave scheme.

    Oh dear. Disunity in the ranks – again – openly.

    It will be surprising if Newspoll doesn’t reflect this disaster of a week for the COALition.

  • 767
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 6:14 am | Permalink

    fredex

    The newspoll after the budget will be the one i will be looking forward too

  • 768
    Arrnea Stormbringer
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 6:22 am | Permalink

    This will push the Labor 2PP up to at least 54, if not 55. Both ALP and GRN will gain on PV, as will PUP.

  • 769
    fredex
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 6:26 am | Permalink

    I’ve just checked the news sites.

    Murdoch is playing a straight bat – just a list of what has been proposed.

    The SMH has Ross Gittings telling us not to worry its just a political ploy so Joe can ignore the nasties and tell us the budget was nice after all – in a dozen days. Ross is naïve.

    The ABC is a mixed bag but being a rural fella meself I found this interesting:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-01/commission-of-audit-agriculture-cuts/5424480

    Here’s the opening line:
    “The Commission of Audit has found plenty to cut across the rural and agricultural sectors.”

    But what I found interesting was this:
    “But rural industries and advocates say adopting some of the tougher spending cuts aimed at farmers would have a devastating effect on agricultural productivity and competitiveness, landscape health and rural communities.”

    And out comes the farming lobbyists:

    “Kay Matthias is the chief executive of Rural Business Support….If that doesn’t happen, we’re going to see more and more farmers just unable to cope, become bankrupt, and move out of farming altogether without any sort of assistance. ”

    Really, really stupid PR from Tony’s “hand picked” CoA.

  • 770
    Everything
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 6:34 am | Permalink

    New polls in Florida have Clinton beating all potential Republican candidates by 8% to 26%.

    If she wins Florida + the states Dems have won in the last 6 Presidential elections (i.e. the last quarter century) she wins the election with 275 electoral college votes.

    http://www.270towin.com
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

  • 771
    sceptic
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 6:40 am | Permalink

    fredex

    This one will go down a treat with the NP & farmers….
    “The Commission has recommended abolishing the Rural Financial Counselling Service (RFCS), which has provided free financial advice and guidance to farmers, fishers and small rural businesses in financial distress since 1986.

    The Commission found that the financial planning and counselling services offered for free by the RFCS ‘can be purchased from the private sector without government subsidy or provision’.

    Smart move to get rid of a body with years of specialist knowledge & understanding of Rural Problems…
    Maybe someone should ask Barnaby ( straight talk) what he thinks

  • 772
    Everything
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 6:41 am | Permalink

    (the 8% is Clinton vs. Bush)

  • 773
    ausdavo
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 6:45 am | Permalink

    Wow, Kochie just gave it to the Government on 6.30 Finance Report.

    He said it’s “bullduct” there’s a budget emergency. He then read out comparisons with other countries showing Australia’s deficit to GDP was a mere fraction of the others.

    He also re-iterated our Triple A rating saying we don’t have a problem.

    Good stuff Kochie! (But maybe Hockey wont talk to him now?).

  • 774
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 6:47 am | Permalink

    A day late, but with the CoA in mind

    Arise ye heads of exploitation
    Arise ye paragons of greed
    For avarice thunders extirpation
    Of those who live in need.

    No more the workers' chains shall bind us
    No more are we in thrall
    Privilege shall rise on new foundations
    What can be bought
    shall now be all ...

    ;-)

    Noting May Day and recalling the Haymarket Martyrs and the many who have fallen in the cause of the struggle for the empowerment of the working humanity.

    Solidarity ….

  • 775
    ausdavo
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 6:54 am | Permalink

    That’s “bulldust” he called it.

  • 776
    fredex
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    Gee maybe I’ll turn onto the Brekky Show on ABC Radio National and have a listen to Fran.

    Nup.

  • 777
    lizzie
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:16 am | Permalink

    fredex

    It’s Ellen Fanning, not Fran. Heard her this morning (and on the drum last night). She’s pretty critical.

  • 778
    sprocket_
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:18 am | Permalink

    The Daily ToiletPaper is blaming the Labor Party for the CoA, along with fat and lazy Australians who have been bludging off welfare and unnecessary over meant handouts.

    Families are facing “Tough Love” shrieks the front page with a cartoonish oaf in a singlet looking sad.

    Paul Whittaker and his goons might need a bit more time to polish this excrement more.

  • 779
    fredex
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:18 am | Permalink

    Thanks lizzie
    Does that mean its OK to listen to Brekky again?

  • 780
    lizzie
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    fredex

    I don’t hear much – only the first few minutes. Ellen is usually good value, tho.

  • 781
    BK
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:35 am | Permalink

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Ross Gittins calls out the CoA as a cynical political ploy. We’ll see.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/commission-of-audit-be-afraid-but-only-mildly-so-20140501-zr2qn.html
    Peter Martin decries the missing element from the CoA – taxation expenditure. He certainly nailed it by pointing out inconsistencies in the selection or not of various things.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tax-the-flaw-at-the-heart-of-the-national-commission-of-audit-20140501-zr2oy.html
    Michelle Grattan – “Pants on fire!” She gets stuck into Abbott.
    http://tinyurl.com/kv96nva
    Mark Kenny sums up the CoA nasties.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/axe-falls-hard-as-audit-recommends-gutting-medicare-cutting-pensions-20140501-zr2qc.html
    A very good contribution from Waleed Aly lambasting Abbott’s PPL brainfart.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-swaps-gender-politics-for-rich-friends-tax-20140501-zr2hw.html
    MUST READ! Richard Ackland hammers the IPA and its stable mates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/propagandists-masquerade-as-think-tanks-to-push-spurious-science-20140501-zr2mo.html
    ACOSS fears the creation of “second class citizens”. We need look no further than the US to see what it would look like.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/acoss-fears-the-creation-of-secondclass-citizens-20140501-37ktk.html
    And Ben Eltham thinks the same! A powerful article.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/01/commission-of-audit-a-recipe-for-a-poorer-nastier-and-more-brutish-australia
    This is a disgusting proposition!
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/01/freeze-minimum-wage-for-a-decade-says-commission-of-audit

  • 782
    BK
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:36 am | Permalink

    Section 2 . . .

    Lenore Taylor says Abbott wants the weakest in society to do the heaviest lifting.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/01/in-abbotts-team-australia-the-weakest-players-must-do-the-heaviest-lifting
    And what would Abbott’s “flexibility” moves do to this situation?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/is-your-boss-making-you-sick-20140501-zr29f.html
    Straight from the Tea Party!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/audit-commission-attacks-idea-of-minimum-wage-20140501-zr2lc.html
    This is a reminder of why our revenue is decreasing. A bloody disgrace!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/google-gets-its-tax-bill-slashed-despite-earning-millions-in-local-profits-20140501-37krm.html
    Greg Jericho call for revenue reform rather than tinkering with costs.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2014/may/01/australia-needs-revenue-reform-tinkering-income-tax-wont-cut-it
    Don’t you just LOVE religion and the theocracies it spawns!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/brunei-introduces-islamic-sharia-penalties-including-death-by-stoning-for-adultery-20140502-zr2y1.html
    The stench being released at ICAC get closer to the top.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-liberal-party-official-john-caputo-admits-giving-cheques-to-chris-hartcher-20140501-zr22j.html
    One of Abbott’s favourites, Noel Pearson, has made a powerful submission on Brandis’s bigotry proposal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/noel-pearson-warns-rda-changes-will-embolden-bigots-20140501-zr2id.html

  • 783
    BK
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:36 am | Permalink

    Section 3 . . .

    A magnificent effort from David Pope with Boxhead Cormann.
    http://images.smh.com.au/2014/05/01/5392698/LI-gal-pope-20140501213707462329-600×400.jpg
    Ron Tandberg with Napthine’s latest woes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html?selectedImage=1
    David Rowe is very sinister today.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  • 784
    citizen
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:41 am | Permalink

    How arrogant!

    Canberra would wear the lion’s share of pain based on recommendations from the National Commission of Audit which suggests ruthless changes to the federal bureaucracy but the commission’s chairman Tony Shepherd said public servants should look past the unpleasantness for the good of Australia.

    Expecting a negative reaction from bureaucrats and their unions Mr Shepherd said public servants should read the report carefully and ‘‘not think of it in terms of my job but in terms of my country.’’

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/commission-of-audit-recommends-public-service-job-cuts-mergers-20140501-zr2je.html#ixzz30VDkWLj9

  • 785
    zoomster
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    citizen

    In that spirit, I look forward to Mr Shepherd the money he’s been paid to run the audit.

  • 786
    zoomster
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:45 am | Permalink

    ‘refunding’ dammit.

  • 787
    shellbell
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:51 am | Permalink

    Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont · 10h
    Does anyone know if the Boganaire is in the country?

    I am not sure where Tinkler is in the batting order of shame but presumably McClymont is inferring he might be a no show

  • 788
    sceptic
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    BK
    From your Ackland link to IPA article …

    “In 2008, one of the IPA’s “research fellows” wrote an article called “Big fat beat-up” questioning the relationship between obesity and fatty foods. ”

    The emperical for this was provided by closely observing Joe Hockey prior to installation of big red rubber band

  • 789
    BK
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    And from the Land of the Free -

    It’s not going well for the Repugs with respect to Obamacare.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/05/01/obamacare-puts-egg-florida-gov-rick-scott/
    I wish we had an Elizabeth Warren in Australia!
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/05/elizabeth-warren-fighting-chance
    The Repugs always attract the best candidates!
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/04/south-dakota-gop-senate-candidate-compares
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/04/nc-pastor-us-senate-candidate-mark-harris
    Sean Hannity – he is a caricature of everything that is wrong with US society.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/01/1296209/-Sean-Hannity-defends-execution-style-killings-of-two-teen-burglars
    Remember the Toronto mayor?
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/01/rob-ford-chicago_n_5249084.html

  • 790
    shellbell
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:55 am | Permalink

    BK

    John Caputo wearing a few badges on his lapel in the commission. Normally an admission of guilt.

  • 791
    confessions
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    I thought the boats had stopped?
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/23135655/race-to-block-asylum-seekers/

  • 792
    BK
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 7:57 am | Permalink

    shellbell
    The photos of the witnesses have been quite telling if one subscribes to the theory of first impressions!

  • 793
    shellbell
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 8:00 am | Permalink

    BK

    I don’t think his hair colour is natural either.

  • 794
    victoria
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    Morning all

    Thanks BK for the array of articles this morning.

    Ross Gittins could be well right in that the budget will not be as scary as imagined.

  • 795
    sceptic
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    From Michelle Gratten

    “A degree of user pays is often appropriate for government services, but again the commission goes for the extreme, for example in urging students contribute a very much higher proportion of their tertiary education costs.”

    What happens when SA & Tas loose revenue & as a result reduce spending on Uni education, resulting on the young then leaving the “dying states” for NSW / Vic

    No wonder Shepherd farrked Transfield…. plain stupid.

  • 796
    confessions
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    The audit report, released today, made 86 recommendations to rein in the federal budget, including widespread spending cuts to government services and family payments.

    It has recommended swingeing cuts to industry assistance and the public service and a radical shake-up of the way all governments tax and do business.

    But Mr Barnett said the main issue for WA was the GST.

    How out of touch is Barnett? WA households face deep cuts to various benefits they receive, yet Barnett sees the main issue in the commission of audit report as the GST.

    I don’t think WA householders would agree with him.

  • 797
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    Coalition TPP in the low 40s?

    I’ll believe it when I see it.

  • 798
    lizzie
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 8:20 am | Permalink

    What on earth was Amanda doing at the table? She was supposed to ensure “politically acceptable” recommendations. Is she really so hard-hearted? Or is Mr Shepherd a misogynist bully?

  • 799
    Steve777
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    Who’s the bloke on the front page of the Telecrap? Is that how Rupert sees his tabloid readers? I expect the Australian has someone who looks like the Monopoly guy, celebrating.

  • 800
    victoria
    Posted Friday, May 2, 2014 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    Sky news just showed the front pages of the papers. Hardly surprising to see the Murdoch stable polishing on behalf of fhe coalition.

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