tip off

BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

The only poll this week was Labor’s best result from Essential Research in nearly four years, but it hasn’t made much difference to the weekly poll aggregate.

Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).

As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.

2311
  • 101
    Darn
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    briefly
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 7:59 am | PERMALINK
    We’ve had two years of declining real per capita disposable income. We’re about to have some more:

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/daily-iron-ore-price-update-dream-is-over/

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/us-gdp-crashes-fed-tapers-aussie-roars/

    This means the budget will remain under stress even if there is no PPL, even if the carbon tax is not repealed, even if we don’t hike defence spending.

    Not only that, if iron ore royalties stop growing (the price is falling but the volume may still increase), there will be less money available to the States, worsening the effects of very slow growth in GST revenues.

    The LNP are going to have to increase taxes simply to stop the deficit growing, let alone bring it into balance.

    In the meantime, declining real per capita disposable income means we should expect to see weak demand for labour and further rises in unemployment.

    This is all looking too hard for the Tories.

    Does my heart good to hear that briefly, notwithstanding the hurt it is going to cause. If it severely damages the Liberal brand and explodes the false perception that they are the better economic managers, when clearly they are not, that can only be a good thing for the country in the long run IMO.

  • 102
    BK
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    Yes Big Ship, he has no-one to blame but himself!

  • 103
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    Apparently someone on ABC24 said somethings will be implemented immediately?

  • 104
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:12 am | Permalink

    “@joeobrien24: Neville Wran Funeral Service on @abcnews24 now .. Paul Keating speaking.”

  • 105
    Tricot
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    “Cut hard, cut deep and cut early” is hardly a novel policy.

    The sugar will come around about this time two years from now.

    And no, I suspect Labor would not win two extra seats in WA, but one more should not be beyond Labor in most normal times.

    The Federal elections are rarely if ever won and lost on what happens in WA, as I think our esteemed host has mentioned in the past, that WA tends to mirror – in terms of voting directions – what happens in the east.

    However, Labor stocks are not strong at the moment and the Bullock affair certainly did not help.

    If/when the bottom falls out of the ‘boom’ it might well be another matter.

    Interestingly, there is another Federal election due before the next State one and who can say what the mood of the electorate will be?

    I am prepared to venture that neither Troy or Colin will be Premier after 2017.

  • 106
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    William

    Just in case you have missed it:

    Today’s Fin has an article by Phil Coorey in which he draws extensively on a poll done by UMR in NSW. Sample: 2000+.

    It is not good news for the Coalition.

  • 107
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    What is amazing about the libs’ budget schemozzle is the dog that isn’t barking at all: Superannuation. It would be so easy, and so logical, to hit rich superannuants ripping off the system. But not on your nelly. Why? The retail super industry obviously has its hooks into this govt like you wouldn’t believe. Wait and see, in a few years, how many of this govt end up in the first-class carriage of the finance industry gravy train.

  • 108
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:29 am | Permalink

    101....Darn

    Labor will be able to point to a record of relative stability and prosperity.

    As ALWAYS happens when the LNP win office, they increase taxes, increase spending, cut services and social incomes, hurt median incomes and trash jobs. Fraser and Howard are cases in point. Fraser completely lost control of things and was thrown out. Howard got lucky and had the benefit of Keating’s reforms to help him along before the booms in household credit and iron ore kicked in.

    The boom times are not about to return. Whoever is in office will have to reform super as well as the rest of the tax system. Eventually they will have to get around to fixing investment, infrastructure, labour supply and housing as well.

  • 109
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:35 am | Permalink

    In ascending order of demerits:

    (1) Hanrahan shambles = fear of shambles but no real shambles necessary.

    (2) shambles = Coalition policy making process

    (3) omnishambles = the immediate consequences of Coalition’s managment style and policy development process

    (4) mother of all shambles = fukt, but with style, as in ‘Abbott is the mother of all shambles’.

    (5) gotterdammerung shambles = twilight of our democracy, society and environment.

    (6) Coalition shambles = even the spivs, freeloaders and filthy rich go down with the ship.

  • 110
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    I think the ICAC inquiry is proving, once again, that there are no boof-heads quite like young liberal boof-heads. They truly stand out from the rest.

  • 111
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    Even Abbott will make sure this bit of the Audit will be DOA. Or will he ?

    A $15-$20 co-payment - more than the $6 fee currently being proposed - to see a bulk-billing doctor is also among the recommendations, The West Australian reports.

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/commission-of-audit-released-today-could-recommend-changes-to-pension-assets-test-and-cuts-to-education/story-fnhnghl5-1226901756603

  • 112
    Gary
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    The fact that these things are even talked about will frighten the horses.

  • 113
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    briefly

    The Kouks article @98 is a bit of a worry. What do you think?

  • 114
    sceptic
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    Young Libs Black Opps squad…

    For those that can bother, I found a contemporary review of Fight Club… Says everything there is to say about Young Libs from Sydney Uni …

    A yuppie comes under the influence of an enigmatic stranger who encourages him to shed the trappings of modern consumerist life and begin an underground bare knuckle boxing club to rediscover his manhood. The 90s created a whole generation of nihilistic smart asses who found their standard bearer in Tyler Durden. Fight Club was a bit of a phenomenon upon its release and it seemed to speak to the the disenfranchised youth of Generation X in a way that nothing had before and being one such example, I hailed it as a masterpiece as did many others. Looking back, it’s really far more a smug indie comedy than serious drama and I can’t quite believe that anyone really took it seriously. It was for all intents and purposes the death knell of said generation even though we didn’t really see it at the time, Palahniuk was showing us the ultimate futility of that way of thinking. It’s amusing how a charismatic self styled guru can create such a cult of personality (which is no doubt how many forms of organised extremism find their way into existence) and Brad Pitt cuts a very imposing and frankly hilarious figure as Durden. In fact the whole thing smacks of the kind of creativity in all areas that we rarely see in mainstream cinema and as such is still well worth seeing. But I can’t help feeling that Fight Club was the logical extension of Project Mayhem itself; a practical joke that people took way too seriously

  • 115
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:50 am | Permalink

    Boerwar

    RE: UMR poll

    Can you elaborate?

  • 116
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/deficit-levy-would-wipe-out-a-decade-of-tax-cuts-20140430-37gzh.html

    “If the government does announce a deficit levy in the budget on May 13, almost all of the reductions in income tax over the past 10 years will be clawed back.”

    So we waste years and money on Tax cuts, and we waste even more money on Deficit Levy.

  • 117
    sceptic
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:52 am | Permalink

    Young Libs…. Genetically predisposed to believe in Libertarianism.
    Educated to believe in their own self importance & inflated capacity

    Destined to finish up like Abbott

  • 118
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    “@political_alert: ACTU President Ged Kearney will respond to the Commission of Audit Report, 3pm, Melbourne #auspol”

  • 119
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    Young Libs = skinheads with hair :-P

  • 120
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:55 am | Permalink

    I’d bet London to a brick it’s the other careerist weathervane, Malcolm Turnbull, that is the chief leaker to the MSM.

  • 121
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:55 am | Permalink

    109....Boerwar

    This is a mini-series. We are just at the sham stage now. Soon there will be shampoo. Then the daytime soaps, sham-plus and non-plus. Later there will be an episode of “Shame”, then there will be “Stumbles – the prequel” followed by “Shambles – Reality Government” where “Murder in the Dark” and the TV amusement concept will be applied to the Cabinet.

  • 122
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:56 am | Permalink

    A friend of mine made a point RE: Pensioners
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/youre-paying-100m-for-pensioners-to-live-overseas/story-e6frg6n6-1226901383832

    “Now there’s an idea. Instead of living on cat food they can move to Bali and live like kings!”

  • 123
    B.C.
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:56 am | Permalink

    I don’t know if anyone has mentioned Alan Kohler’s Drum article today: Plugging the revenue gap means higher taxes in which he says the deficit levy is really “about restoring revenue before the far more difficult election in 2019, writes Alan Kohler”.

  • 124
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 11:59 am | Permalink

    Kouk’s analysis is sound – up to a point.

    It will be an oft-repeated catch phrase from the Coalition between May 2015 and whenever the election is held in the latter part of 2016 that "we got the budget back in the black and that the long hard task of paying off Labor's debt has begun", or words to that effect.

    To hark back to the Victorian example – the speed in which the budget crisis disappeared said to the ordinary voter that the crisis hadn’t been as bad as they’d been told, and sowed a niggling suspicion that a slower return to surplus would have seen less damage done to government services.

    Kennett at least had something like four years (over one term, although he seems to have forgotten himself that four year terms were introduced after his time) of cutting before he declared that the problem was fixed.

    Kennett could still have held on to power, if he’d been willing to loosen the purse strings again once the ‘problem’ had been ‘fixed’.

    If Hockey declares the budget emergency over in 2015, he will create the perception that there really wasn’t one, or that – if there was one – that a more gradual approach could have been taken.

    If he declares the budget emergency over in 2015 WITHOUT reversing some of the measures taken (or introducing new ones which are equally attractive), then his cuts will be seen as ideological rather than necessary.

    Kennett’s big error was to announce that the budget crisis was over without then showing the electorate that the pain had been worth it.

  • 125
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

    Mark Butler used twitter to highlight the Climate Institutes media release yesterday regarding the potential billions of dollars lost in Govt revenue.

    I’d have thought this was a big enough issue for Mr Shorten and Ms Milne to go hammer and tongs on the Govt for an extended period… ?

    http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/articles/media-releases/$24-$40bn-hit-to-budget-from-loss-of-carbon-revenue-and-addition-of-the-erf.html

  • 126
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:04 pm | Permalink

    Congrats to the Australian cricketers for regaining #1 world ranking.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-01/australia-takes-back-top-spot-in-test-rankings/5422730?section=sport

  • 127
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:04 pm | Permalink

    @political_alert: Shadow Finance Minister @Tony_Burke interview discussing release of the Commission of Audit Report: http://t.co/mUdMLTsJDR #auspol

  • 128
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:04 pm | Permalink

    Hockey must be using these economists!

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/cut-the-spending-and-the-new-tax-is-not-necessary-economists-say/story-fnhnv0wb-1226901485799

  • 129
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    Where did they get $66 billion from for supporting DSP?

    It was $15 billion per year, how did they make up the other $51 billion?

  • 130
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

    The botched execution story is a bit of a beat up.

    Basically the IV drip wasn’t sitting in the vein so the drugs extravasated. They just need to flush the drip before using it to make sure its in the right spot.

  • 131
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:08 pm | Permalink

    Alan Kohler’s Drum article

    The Coalition is a near certainty to win the 2016 election

    How the f**k would he know.

  • 132
    sceptic
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    There is very simple narrative for Labor to explore.
    Over simplified for clarity.

    If you reduce Taxes you reduce services & benefits to society, this displacement is taken up by the Private Sector, which then has a monopoly to charge what it likes over time.
    Given the impossibly high cost to duplicate the assets / services sold off you end up paying through the nose till the end of time.

    If you reduce expenditure / services see above ….

    Look no further than the debacle that is Sydney Airport… With fantastic contract that guarantees SAC first option on Badgerys Creek & flow government compensation under Howard’s Age of Entitlement

  • 133
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    @131

    Alan Kohler is now owned by Murdoch, and has been for awhile.

  • 134
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

    @smh: The closely guarded secrets and recommendations of the Commission of Audit will be finally revealed at 2pm: http://t.co/wK79mXzcLP

  • 135
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord @133

    Check. ;-)

  • 136
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

    113...mikehilliard

    Mike, The Kouk is a hyper-bull. He takes as his starting point the MYEFO forecast for 2016/17 a deficit of about 1% of GDP and argues all the cutting and taxing are superfluous – simply a way of massaging the budget in time for the next election.

    He could be right.

    But the MYEFO forecast for the budget this year is a deficit of 2.7% of GDP and 1.9% next year.

    http://www.budget.gov.au/2013-14/content/myefo/html/03_part_3.htm

    I think we should look at the terms of trade, which are falling; the end of the mining investment boom, which will hit jobs; the very high ratio of private debt to private income; likely deceleration in housing under the weight of vry high prices; the secular trend in labour demand (hours worked has barely grown for about three years, participation is falling); very weak growth in nominal wages.

    We will get the latest reading on GDP in early June and this will tell us whether the economy is lifting or decelerating again.

    In spite of the Kouk’s optimism, as long as real net per capita incomes are declining – a consequence of the falling terms of trade, contraction in mining-led (foreign) investment and weak domestic growth, fiscal collections will stagnate. To this we can add the LNP’s own policies, such as the abolition of the Carbon Tax and planned increases in Defence spending. In the absence of other measures, the deficit will trend out towards 4 or 5% of GDP.

    If the LNP’s policies repress domestic demand and cause a sharp rise in unemployment then the deficit could easily go much higher than that. I think they are playing a very reckless game.

  • 137
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:16 pm | Permalink

    @MalcolmFraser12: Labor elder John Faulkner announces retirement. Loss of a good man in public life, one of the best. http://t.co/KUKWBQD5lI

  • 138
    poroti
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

    mikehilliard

    If Kohler’s opinion doesn’t suit then try this one :)

    Kathy Marks: 'Electoral suicide' and only a drop in the deficit bucket

    ............Then again, it seems inconceivable, at least at the moment, that his government will win a second term. The next opinion polls will make interesting reading.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11247123

  • 139
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

    briefly@136

    Thanks for your reply.

  • 140
    mikehilliard
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    poroti

    Great article, “dense” is a perfect description.

  • 141
    Sir sustainable future
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

    I think the ICAC inquiry is proving, once again, that there are no boof-heads quite like young liberal boof-heads. They truly stand out from the rest.

    yes – probably more “Black Shirts” rather than “Black Ops”. abbott as a student was a prototype for these sorts of agro dickheads and he’s never taken time to mature – the comb over, hair die, botox and face sculpting all say he’s someone unprepared to grow up.

  • 142
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

    “@NeilChenoweth: ICAC & the missing $4k cheques: After 2011 state election John Caputo made chairman of fundraising of Tony Abbott’s Warringah branch. Bravo!”

  • 143
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:32 pm | Permalink

    @latikambourke: Daily Tele graphic of Julia Gillard merged with Tony Abbott is quite something. http://t.co/QkFL2xZtmL

  • 144
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    Then again, it seems inconceivable, at least at the moment, that his government will win a second term.

    I don’t think it is inconceivable at all. History would suggest it is more than likely they will get a second term. Hell, Labor dumped their own PM in their first term and still managed to hang on for a second. Maybe the Libs will finally break the run and get chucked after one term, but I wouldn’t say it is inconceivable that they will win a second term.

  • 145
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:51 pm | Permalink

    142
    guytaur

    “@NeilChenoweth: ICAC & the missing $4k cheques: After 2011 state election John Caputo made chairman of fundraising of Tony Abbott’s Warringah branch. Bravo!”

    Getting more and more smelly.

  • 146
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

    @oliverlaughland: Incredible new submission to Manus inquiry has been published. http://t.co/O8gO63XeCJ – my report is coming up..

  • 147
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

    briefly

    Given NSW is the Liberal power base its a surprise there is not more connection to the federal liberals

  • 148
    briefly
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 12:59 pm | Permalink

    147
    guytaur

    briefly

    Given NSW is the Liberal power base its a surprise there is not more connection to the federal liberals

    Well, Sinodinos is a goner. Abbott and the others must be in range. We’ll soon see I guess.

  • 149
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

    guytaur

    My anti virus won’t let me open the link to Fraser’s comments on John Faulkner can you please send me the text?

  • 150
    BK
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

    Abbott’s blue ties are now tied with a proper Windsor knot. Who taught him to do this?

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