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Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The second in what looks like it might be a regular monthly series of Galaxy polls finds Labor opening a lead after a dead heat in last month’s poll.

The Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1391 – quite a bit bigger than Galaxy polls have traditionally been in the past – which shows Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 at the last such poll a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and Palmer United is up two to 6%. The poll also finds 65% opposed to the paid parental leave scheme proceeding “in the current budgetary environment”, compared with 23% in support. Seventy-two per cent say they would rate the proposed deficit levy a broken promise, after being prompted that “Tony Abbott announced before the election that there would be no new taxes”, compared with 21% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE: Possum, who reads more carefully than some of us, observes that the higher sample size is due to a change in methodology, with the live interviewing (which I believe in Galaxy’s case includes a subset of mobile phone polling) supplemented by an online panel.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has Labor’s lead up from 52-48 to 54-46, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 39% for the Coalition. More to follow.

UPDATE 3: Full ReachTEL results here, showing primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition (down 1.1% on a poll conducted in fortnight ago), 39.6% for Labor (up 2.2%), 11.2% for the Greens (down 0.3%) and 6.0% for Palmer United (up 0.4%). Also featured are leadership ratings on a five-point scale, in which Tony Abbott has a very good or good rating from 26.5% (down 4.3%) and poor or very poor from 56.8% (up 5.0%), while Bill Shorten’s respective numbers are 20.8% (up 1.8%) and 42.2% (down 0.4%). A 1% deficit levy has a net unfavourable if applied at $80,000 per annum (34.2% to 40.7%), becoming strongly favourable at $180,000 (59.3% to 23.4%), but 60.2% believe such a levy would break an election promise against 23.5% who think otherwise. Co-payments for doctor visits have 33.5% support and 56.5% opposition, with 59.0% thinking it a broken promise against 28.4% not; and 47.2% would support reducing the size of the public service to bring the budget to surplus versus 34.3% opposed.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): Morgan now offers its fortnightly result as well, part of a glut of polling as everyone returns to the party following consecutive long weekends (Newspoll to follow this evening). It adds to the general picture of a blowout in having Labor’s lead at 55-45 (up from 52-48) on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 (up from 52-48) on previous election preferences, the primary votes being 37% for Labor (up three), 37.5% for the Coalition (down one), 12% for the Greens (down one) and 5.5% for Palmer United (up half).

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  • 51
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Yes its twitter stirring. I posted as not seen this stirring for some time

  • 52
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    dave:

    I reckon Mike Carlton is just taking the piss.

  • 53
    Steve777
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    I don’t think Direct Inaction will be ‘deferred’. Abbott will let the Senate reject it. Given that the Senate will most likely allow the repeal of carbon pricing, Abbott and Hunt will then blame Labor and the Greens for Australia not having any Climate Change policy, which is in fact what Abbott and most of the LNP and its backers wanted all along.

    Still, it’s better to have no policy at all than to waste a couple of billion on a token one which in any case looks like another slush fund for Liberal mates.

  • 54
    Tom Hawkins
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    I reckon Mike Carlton is just taking the piss.

    I hope so. The last thing I want to see is Abbott replaced as leader. He’s the best thing Labor has at the moment.

  • 55
    cud chewer
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    What were the last couple of Galaxys?

  • 56
    dave
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    WarrenPeace
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    So I would say that on average the polls taken around now would have L/NP between 46 and 46.5 and ALP 53.5 and 54.

    A little disappointing but I don’t think the Libs will recover their vote in the near future.

    If voters have stopped listening to abbott then they are in deep shit. Thats what Labor want. Rejection of abbott so early into his term and they are then all under pressure.

  • 57
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Whatever.

    The Dad called a taxi to be rid of his son.

    Citing to me.

    How sharper than a serpent’s tooth it is
    To have a thankless child! Away, away!

    And the Dad wants me to change something I said about his view.

    It is about values and community.

  • 58
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Exactly. They were trying to undermine Abbott’s leadership by leaking it.

    But instead they just undermined the entire government, because if they don’t go through with it they will look weak as if they PM and treasurer got rolled. If they do go through with it, it is a broken promise that may not even pass the parliament.

  • 59
    Pegasus
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Fran Barlow,

    Thank you for pointing out my misspelling. ‘Christmas’ will be a helpful mnemonic.

    I am mortified as I usually take great care to spell names correctly. Time to call it a night.

  • 60
    Darn
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:39 pm | PERMALINK
    @stevejco: @MikeCarlton01 there is very strong talk in CBR re: leadership spill in Jun. Turnbull/Hockey vs Abbott/Bishop/Credlin #auspol

    Pardon my ignorance but what is CBR?

  • 61
    J341983
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    Canberra…

  • 62
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    cbr…canberra i guess

  • 63
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    I don’t think Direct Inaction will be ‘deferred’. Abbott will let the Senate reject it.

    But it is government policy so it has to go in the budget papers which means the bottom line will be around $8.5 billion worse off over 4 years if you include the cost of Direct Inaction AND repeal of the carbon price.

  • 64
    dave
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    Could it be that Hockey has finally realised that Labor reduced spending so much in their last 3 budgets that there aren’t any easy saves left, hence we need some tax increases?

    Not much doubt about that but also look for Hockey to have larger cuts in the out years beyond the next election and squibbing it as well.

  • 65
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Canberra

  • 66
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Possum observes that Galaxy are debuting new methodology with this poll, in which their live interviewing (which in Galaxy’s case includes a subset of mobile phone polling) is supplemented by an online panel. Hence the sample size of 1391, compared with the past norm of 1000 for Galaxy’s federal polls.

  • 67
    cud chewer
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    So is Labor doing the right thing in going quiet and letting abbott be the issue?

  • 68
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    That tweet re a spill was from this guy (no, not the Senator.)

    https://twitter.com/stevejco

    No reason to think he has any special insight.

    The last Galaxy is shown in the chart. Only been one other since the election. Nothing extraon their web site.

    http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2014/05/03/1226904/378105-poll-artwork.jpg

    http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/polling/

  • 69
    sohar
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    Is CBR Sydney speak for CBD?

  • 70
    dave
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    confessions@52

    dave:

    I reckon Mike Carlton is just taking the piss.

    Yep – But worth a stir all the same :)

    Someone generally bites.

  • 71
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    63
    ShowsOn

    I think we will see Labor, the Greens, FF, DLP, X and PUP lining up to reject large parts of the budget.

  • 72
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    “@TonyHWindsor: Breaking news on budget “crisis ” The hungry will be permitted to eat the homeless !!!”

  • 73
    J341983
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    The main reason I think he’s full of shit … it suggests that Credlin and the Wicked Witch of the North have have any power or credibility in the party room.

  • 74
    dave
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    crikey whitey@57

    Whatever.

    The Dad called a taxi to be rid of his son.

    Not good CW. Not Good.

  • 75
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    I think we will see Labor, the Greens, FF, DLP, X and PUP lining up to reject large parts of the budget.

    Labor should consider just voting against everything and forcing the Government to negotiate absurd deals with the cross benchers that will probably end up costing the budget more money. It can then blame the government when these deals waste money.

  • 76
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    If the cabinet is so concerned about the budget, then it’s upto them to say they have no support for Abbott publicly.

    Rumors mean sh!t to me.

    In-fact, go as far as calling the Governor General for a new election.

    Which happened to Labor once (Gough Whitlam?)

  • 77
    Rossmore
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    I suspect it was Hockey’s young Turks that leaked. Federal black ops.

  • 78
    guytaur
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    Goodnight

  • 79
    Steve777
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    Labor should consider just voting against everything and forcing the Government to negotiate absurd deals with the cross benchers that will probably end up costing the budget more money. It can then blame the government when these deals waste money.

    - The deferral of the pension age to 70 and other pension changes: Labor can reject any proposed legislation, saying let the Coalition take it to the next election.
    - Medicare changes: give close and detailed consideration for about 3 nanoseconds then reject the lot. There is no mandate.
    - Education changes: ditto
    - Deceit tax: let through after pointing out hypocrisy and the LNP’s refusal to shut down rorts and loop holes.
    - Means testing of Middle Class welfare: ditto
    - ‘new federalism’: a crock of shit. Don’t consider for even 3 nanoseconds.
    - privatisations – consider on their merits

  • 80
    dave
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    Rossmore@77

    I suspect it was Hockey’s young Turks that leaked. Federal black ops.

    Maybe but they shouldn’t have known either – it was a nasty surprise to many in the party room who think its madness.

    Loose lips sink ships.

    But if all the other big ticket goodies the rich and business have are untouched – then abbott is totally looney.

  • 81
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    @79

    If you let Abbott even have one let through, they will call that a win.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kerr_%28governor-general%29
    “In October 1975 the Liberals used their Senate majority to defer voting on the supply bills until Whitlam agreed to hold an election for the House of Representatives, and a political crisis resulted.[9]:p.231–233 Whitlam refused to back down and call an early election”

  • 82
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    what is CBR?

    Airport abbreviations used to route you and your baggage on domestic flights.

    CBR = Canberra

    SYD = Sydney

    BNE = Brisbane

    DWN = Darwin

    PTH = Perth

    ADL = Adelaide

    HOB = Hobart

    MEL = Melbourne

    They are the big print on your luggage tags.

    (Yep – I’ve seen then often enough in the past that I stills know the major ones and and many others).

  • 83
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    Dave.

    Shocking.

    Dad is distraught.

    Hearing his son devalue and contest the verities he thought had instilled.

  • 84
    Rossmore
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    Dave ERC is Cabinet in Confidence but a whole army of LNP staffers, officials and MPs would have been privy to the papers tabled at ERC. The fact that someone leaked suggests serious disharmony in the Government.

  • 85
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    I could add.

    In the same weird way that Abbott has betrayed his electors.

    Wait for the next damn op poll.

  • 86
    sohar
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    This Galaxy is a very tiny poll – the real result could be anything.

  • 87
    Steve777
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Sample size 1391 for the Galaxy Poll – margin of error is about 2.7%, so assuming the methodology is sound it’s a credible poll.

  • 88
    dave
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    CW -

    Hearing his son devalue and contest the verities he thought had instilled.

    Yes – particularly when abbott is trying to turn everything in favour of the rich and business while taking from those who have bugger all to start with.

  • 89
    dave
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    Rossmore -

    The fact that someone leaked suggests serious disharmony in the Government.

    Lets hope there is lots more of it.

  • 90
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    In fact, if it was noticed, I said his son has Foxtel.

    He has been watching Fox News or something. I am not familiar.
    Apart from reports on its ‘balance’.

    Last thing I would watch.

    Must be pretty influential. As it seeks to be.

    Though it is not as if the son in years past was anything other than Labor oriented.

  • 91
    Tom L
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    CTar1 – Perth is PER.

  • 92
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    dave

    Lets hope there is lots more of it.

    No doubt Brandis will be calling the AFP in on Monday …

    /sarcasm/

  • 93
    ShowsOn
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    This Galaxy is a very tiny poll – the real result could be anything.

    Your post is meaningless. The real meaning could be anything.

  • 94
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    Tom L

    I thought I’d get at least one wrong!

  • 95
    dave
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    I always got a chuckle out of the airport abbreviation for Port Moresby – POM.

    But not when returning to PNG from the US via HKG when they tried to sent my luggage to Phnom Penh.

    I made sure the right labels were attached :)

  • 96
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    Yet,Dave.

    His son owes him everything.

    His career, his experience, his knowledge, his support, his continual guidance.

    Even though, and Hockey would be soooo proud of the Dad, who at the age of 67 is still working, developing and nurturing his son’s knowledge in their field of expertise.

    Now Dad doesn’t go out on field work so much now.

    Because in a work place situation he slipped and broke a hip.

    Not so long ago.

    Entirely the fault of the site.

    Can’t see him resuming on site work any time soon.

    He does have all the Hi Vis gear that Tony likes to flaunt.

  • 97
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    Hopefully, these polls (and that “rumour” of a leadership spill), together with the budget signify the beginning of the end for Abbott.
    Hopefully.

  • 98
    markjs
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    Just to clarify:

    “@stevejco: @MikeCarlton01 there is very strong talk in CBR re: leadership spill in Jun. Turnbull/Hockey vs Abbott/Bishop/Credlin #auspol”

    …is not a tweet FROM Mike Carlton …it is a tweet TO Mike Carlton …from a fellow named Steve Conroy who has the twitter handle: @stevejco

    …he apparently lives in Brisbane…

  • 99
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    And his back was stuffed anyway. Years ago.

    Not to mention that he was banned from climbing ladders.

    Dizzy. Unsure footing.

    You know the deal.

    I guess.

  • 100
    Jackol
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    48/52 isn’t an election losing position in any real sense.

    Abbott is safe for now.

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