tip off

Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The second in what looks like it might be a regular monthly series of Galaxy polls finds Labor opening a lead after a dead heat in last month’s poll.

The Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1391 – quite a bit bigger than Galaxy polls have traditionally been in the past – which shows Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 at the last such poll a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and Palmer United is up two to 6%. The poll also finds 65% opposed to the paid parental leave scheme proceeding “in the current budgetary environment”, compared with 23% in support. Seventy-two per cent say they would rate the proposed deficit levy a broken promise, after being prompted that “Tony Abbott announced before the election that there would be no new taxes”, compared with 21% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE: Possum, who reads more carefully than some of us, observes that the higher sample size is due to a change in methodology, with the live interviewing (which I believe in Galaxy’s case includes a subset of mobile phone polling) supplemented by an online panel.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has Labor’s lead up from 52-48 to 54-46, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 39% for the Coalition. More to follow.

UPDATE 3: Full ReachTEL results here, showing primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition (down 1.1% on a poll conducted in fortnight ago), 39.6% for Labor (up 2.2%), 11.2% for the Greens (down 0.3%) and 6.0% for Palmer United (up 0.4%). Also featured are leadership ratings on a five-point scale, in which Tony Abbott has a very good or good rating from 26.5% (down 4.3%) and poor or very poor from 56.8% (up 5.0%), while Bill Shorten’s respective numbers are 20.8% (up 1.8%) and 42.2% (down 0.4%). A 1% deficit levy has a net unfavourable if applied at $80,000 per annum (34.2% to 40.7%), becoming strongly favourable at $180,000 (59.3% to 23.4%), but 60.2% believe such a levy would break an election promise against 23.5% who think otherwise. Co-payments for doctor visits have 33.5% support and 56.5% opposition, with 59.0% thinking it a broken promise against 28.4% not; and 47.2% would support reducing the size of the public service to bring the budget to surplus versus 34.3% opposed.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): Morgan now offers its fortnightly result as well, part of a glut of polling as everyone returns to the party following consecutive long weekends (Newspoll to follow this evening). It adds to the general picture of a blowout in having Labor’s lead at 55-45 (up from 52-48) on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 (up from 52-48) on previous election preferences, the primary votes being 37% for Labor (up three), 37.5% for the Coalition (down one), 12% for the Greens (down one) and 5.5% for Palmer United (up half).

1880
  • 101
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    @100

    They said that about Labor.

  • 102
    Steve777
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    I hope Abbott is replaced as PM sooner rather than later. He is a national embarrassment. Hockey would be the most likely replacement. Turnbull would never be accepted by the LNP again. Morrison and Bishop the younger are lightweights and anyway is Morrison the face we want to present to ourselves let alone the wider world?

    So Hockey is a Thatcherite ideologue, a bloviating windbag and while a physical heavyweight is hardly an intellectual one. But he’s a republican, a social moderate and believes there’s a problem with the climate. Hopefully the Senate can curb his excesses until we can boot the whole lot out in 2016.

  • 103
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    Yer reckon?

  • 104
    dave
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    CW

    You know the deal.

    I guess.

    Yep – we all slow down.

    Lots of stuff I now pay to have done that I wouldn’t have thought twice but done it myself. Not worth the risk etc.

    But rifts like you describe between father and son are very sad.

  • 105
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    Jackol.

  • 106
    CTar1
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Tom L / dave

    There’s some funny tags (and multiple sets of them) used in the airline industry.

    And Tom L – I don’t think we’ve conversed before, so Greetings.

  • 107
    dave
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Off now for some kip – Night All.

  • 108
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    My aggregate has gone from 51.3 for Labor last week to 51.9 thus far this week although there are several polls to come this week. Anyway its highest reading at the end of a week was 51.4 so it will be interesting to see where it ends up this week.

  • 109
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    Quite, Dave.

    A friend asked me a few years ago what to do about ‘being older’ and what that may imply.

    My answer was if you are earning money enough, keep hold of whatever you can and spend it on what you need to do to alleviate the difficulties that present themselves, as you become less able. Age alone.

  • 110
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    Steve777

    It probably won’t be a gal.

  • 111
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    Kevin Bonham.

    It will be interesting. Ha.

    I anticipate an eclipse of the moon,the sun and the stars.

  • 112
    imacca
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    Talk about an Abbott spill will hopefully remain just that.

    If they dump him based on polls then they get hit with the knifing of a 1st term PM stuff which they will want to avoid.

    Unless of course Abbott leaves for “health reasons”??? :)

    And for the ALP? Far better for Abbott to remain in place but there to be constant rumblings, speculation in the press, and positioning moves by Libs.

    And if the ICAC cacky starts to contaminate the federal party as well (any more than it already has) then its serious popcorn time. :)

    If that happened, and the Federal Libs had to look outside of NSW for a new leader to avoid any hint of contamination, who would it be??? Pyne?? :)

  • 113
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Oh dear.

    Am I the Last Poster?

  • 114
    imacca
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    anyway is Morrison the face we want to present to ourselves let alone the wider world?

    The Libs obviously do. Its part of their tactics to stop people coming here.

  • 115
    Jackol
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    the Federal Libs had to look outside of NSW for a new leader to avoid any hint of contamination, who would it be??? Pyne??

    Brough!

  • 116
    ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    48/52 isn’t an election losing position in any real sense.

    I suspect it is a pretty bad position for a government about to deliver its first year budget.

  • 117
    crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    Imacca.

    Thank god.

    I observed some time ago that Abbott needs to last a year to get his Age of Politician’s Entitlement.

    I suppose they will give him that.

  • 118
    Steve777
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    If they dump him based on polls then they get hit with the knifing of a 1st term PM stuff which they will want to avoid.

    Abbott’s replacement will be boosted and protected by the mainstream media, especially the Murdochracy, which would probably have started it’s boosting before the leadership change should it decide Abbott is a dud. The ‘knifing a first term leader’ angle will be downplayed.

  • 119
    CTar1
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    imacca

    If they dump him based on polls then they get hit with the knifing of a 1st term PM stuff which they will want to avoid.

    He’d have to go totally feral on them.

    A march to death is on unless they get their act together.

    Pyne as PM? FMD, That would be even more crazy.

  • 120
    Tom L
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:08 am | Permalink

    Bishop would attract the smart money if the top criterion was not-from-Sydney. Though I’d be surprised if that were the main concern. The favourites would have to be Hockey and Turnbull; ie, let’s all take a trip down memory lane to 2009. And for those saying ‘let them keep Tony, he’s the best chance Labor has – you were probably saying that in 2009, too.

    Early days to be talking about this, though ‘twelve month Tony’ has a certain resonance to it…

  • 121
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    T ony
    A bbott
    X (pm)

    Will the Speaker Bronwyn Bishop allow Labor members to refer to the PM as “Taxing Tony” in the same way she allowed Government MPs to call the Opposition Leader “Electricity Bill”?

  • 122
    Tom L
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    My general point is that our political system works best when both major parties are run by moderates. The ideal is two moderate major parties and a hung Senate. This leads to consensus building (the moderate majors can find common ground to avoid being captive to special interests driving micro-parties) and minimises the potential benefit of taking up a populist agenda in opposition. Labor has kept its side of the equation, let’s just hope Abbott self-destructs sooner rather than later so we an actually achieve some ong-term reform in the national interest (the decarbonisation of the economy being the most pressing one).

  • 123
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    @121

    How about Taxing Tony?

    After Abbott called Bill Shorten, Electricity Bill?

  • 124
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    118

    What if Abbott gets wind that he is to be dumped and then goes to the GG for a DD (just to keep himself in office for a few more weeks)?

  • 125
    CTar1
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:19 am | Permalink

    RR

    Bugger all people watch QT so it probably doesn’t matter much.

    I expect Bronny won’t make the Lib cut for pre-selection for the next go-around. Pushed by her own.

  • 126
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:22 am | Permalink

    Just watched some tv and there was a banner at the bottom saying something like Troy Buswell and his chief of staff were living the good life on a government funded credit card while the state lost it’s AAA credit rating.

    What’s that all about?

  • 127
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:25 am | Permalink

    @126

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/taxpayers-paid-for-troy-buswells-champagne-and-hotels-during-light-rail-jaunt/story-e6frg6n6-1226904366720

  • 128
    crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:29 am | Permalink

    Not full bottle on that idea, Fulvio. But maybe.

    Something like this? A committee which keeps politicians at arms length from their remuneration.

    http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1314/ParlRemEntitlements

  • 129
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:30 am | Permalink

    Net Neutrality back in the news again btw:
    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/apr/28/internet-service-providers-charging-premium-access

  • 130
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:34 am | Permalink

    Thanks.

  • 131
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:46 am | Permalink

    I think things will just get worse for Abbott.

    They aren’t going to be able to sell this budget and they’ve lost control of the narrative.

    Even News Ltd is scathing of them.

  • 132
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:49 am | Permalink

    If there is a spill in the next few months then good riddance Tony Abbott

  • 133
    crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:52 am | Permalink

    Gosh, Dio.

    Murdoch knows when his cipher has fulfilled the intended purpose.

    As was mentioned by another above. Got what he wanted.

    Now expendable.

  • 134
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 12:53 am | Permalink

    And according to the Sun Herald there is a scandal being exposed in Senator Nigel Scullion’s Ministry of Indigenous Affairs where a ministerial adviser has been found to have a major involvement in an Indigenous Lobbying company having dealings with the Ministry.

  • 135
    ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 1:01 am | Permalink

    I think things will just get worse for Abbott.

    They aren’t going to be able to sell this budget and they’ve lost control of the narrative.

    Even News Ltd is scathing of them.

    Plus Abbott is a dumb muthafarqar.

  • 136
    crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 1:02 am | Permalink

    Love your terminology, Shows.

  • 137
    imacca
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 1:05 am | Permalink

    What if Abbott gets wind that he is to be dumped and then goes to the GG for a DD (just to keep himself in office for a few more weeks)?

    I actually reckon that if Abbott gets a tap on the shoulder he will go quietly.

    The real fun starts in the maneuverings to replace him. there were obvious divisions between the Liberals and the Loony Denialist Right in the Libs when Abbott got the job. Are the numbers still balanced between the sides??

    Still, bets of all worlds at the moment is for the press pack to stoke up the Lib Leadersh$t boiler to a good head of steam.

  • 138
    J341983
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 1:05 am | Permalink

    Abbott and Co are pretty much committing the same error as many first-term governments… completely misinterpreting what their election actually meant. The punters wanted to see the back of Labor, they knew there would be cuts and changes, but now their blinkers are off and they not interested in the ‘Budget emergency’ or the remedies.

    They don’t have the political capital to spend… they’re behind in the polls, Abbott is the weakest first-term Prime Minister (both in terms of approvals and preferred PM)… and there’s clearly internal ructions. And they’re insisting to go ahead on this ideological wet dream of a Budget…

  • 139
    ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 1:14 am | Permalink

    Who’s gonna tell Abbott when, it’s too late?
    who’s gonna tell Abbott things, aren’t so great?

    Abbott can’t go on, thinking, nothing’s wrong
    who’s gonna drive Abbott home, tonight?

    Who’s gonna pick Abbott up, when Abbott falls?
    Who’s gonna hang it up, when Abbott calls?
    Who’s gonna pay attention, to Abbott’s dreams?
    Who’s gonna plug their ears, when Abbott screams?

    Abbott can’t go on, thinking, nothing’s wrong
    Who’s gonna drive Abbott home, tonight?

    Who’s gonna hold Abbott down, when Abbott shakes?
    Who’s gonna come around, when Abbott breaks?

    Abbott can’t go on, thinking, nothing’s wrong
    Who’s gonna drive Abbott home, tonight?
    Abbott can’t go on, thinking, nothing’s wrong
    Who’s gonna drive Abbott home, tonight?

  • 140
    ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 1:17 am | Permalink

    The punters wanted to see the back of Labor, they knew there would be cuts and changes, but now their blinkers are off and they not interested in the ‘Budget emergency’ or the remedies.

    That’s what the next election will be about. Can the Coalition convince punters that we have a budget emergency and the Coalition has started fixing it, or can Labor convince punters that the changes the Coalition has come up with aren’t actually needed or are the wrong choices.

  • 141
    crikey whitey
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 1:19 am | Permalink

    I do stick to my conviction that Abbott will be allowed a full year.

    A little mercy. Before they kill.

    Roll on, damaging even further ‘confidence’ and ‘trust’ in the meantime.

    Abbott has to be seen as a massive liability even by the strongest of his supporters (not that I know who they are, and question that they ever were)

    Abbott got to be Lib leader and then PM entirely against all odds.

    Unelectable at the time. Now absolutely Un Re Electable.

    Hokey Jokey will be biding his time.

    Not that he will inspire.

    Oh, maybe a few.

  • 142
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 3:17 am | Permalink

    102.....Steve777

    It’s far to early to speculate about the LNP dumping Abbott. The polls would need to crash out first and then fail to rebuild, and there would need to be an obvious replacement that would be acceptable to the dominant right wing. There’s no such alternative available.

    Hockey lacks the fibre and in any case is already tainted by the Budget and CoA shambles, both of which fall within his domain. There’s no-one else on hand…consider the current cabinet. Turnbull is reviled by his colleagues. Pyne is a whinging prat. Morrison is possible, but is basically still unproven. Bishop is utterly flimsy. Andrews is a cadaverous creep. There are several others, but they are either invisible, in the Senate or the wrong party. Abbott had the chance to promote new blood, but has chosen a team that could never pose a challenge to him. I think the Libs and the country are stuck with him for a long time yet.

  • 143
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 3:26 am | Permalink

    There’s always Dutton, who must hold the record for the fewest words ever uttered by a Minister, and Greg Hunt, who is a notorious sell-out, fraud and poser. Then there’s Robb, who has all the appeal of stale socks. Nup, Abbott it is and Abbott it will be.

  • 144
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 3:39 am | Permalink

    140
    ShowsOn

    The punters wanted to see the back of Labor, they knew there would be cuts and changes, but now their blinkers are off and they not interested in the ‘Budget emergency’ or the remedies.

    That’s what the next election will be about. Can the Coalition convince punters that we have a budget emergency and the Coalition has started fixing it, or can Labor convince punters that the changes the Coalition has come up with aren’t actually needed or are the wrong choices.

    The LNP policies, if implemented with a balanced budget, require them to drag an extra 3% of GDP out of the household sector, either by cutting social incomes or raising taxes. They have to do this while demographic factors are pushing up outlays and the external accounts are dragging down revenues.

    If they do what they say they want to do, they will tend to drive down private savings. But this cannot run far. If households feel their security is threatened, they will respond by cutting consumption instead of savings, which will hit demand, profits, investment and jobs.

    The LNP’s policies are basically contractionary though they mistakenly don’t see it that way. They think that to cut is also to expand. This is economics by and for simpletons. If they’re not careful – and if the Senate lets them – they will crash the economy.

  • 145
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 3:50 am | Permalink

    http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Parliamentary_Handbook/Current_Ministry_List

    When you have a look at the ministerial list, it is remarkably dreary.

  • 146
    Tom Hawkins
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 6:56 am | Permalink

    If households feel their security is threatened, they will respond by cutting consumption instead of savings, which will hit demand, profits, investment and jobs.

    Victoria has recently increased motor reg tax because of falling GST revenue. The cycle continues. That’s the best they could come up with in an election year. They haven’t got a clue.

  • 147
    Dee
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 7:04 am | Permalink

    Amazing isn’t it!

    From the headline, moi thought something more dire.

    So the over the top response, re:poll is all about the possibility of a hit to those who are relatively well off.
    Obviously trying to scare Rabbott into withdrawing from any measures that hit those who can afford it.

    What would be the headline if the idea of a deceit tax was absent?

    What about the slug to the minimum wage?

    That seems to be acceptable but lordy, lordy, try and hit those at the top at your peril.

    Arseholes!

  • 148
    BK
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 7:09 am | Permalink

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers
    I hope she does well. She’s very attractive and intelligent one of which characteristics is sufficient for morning TV.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/kristina-keneally-takes-on-television-20140503-37oyu.html
    It looks more and more like it will only be specific legislation that can clip the wings of this dopoly.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/woolworths-intimidated-regulator-20140503-zr3ux.html
    Brandis is spooked by the response to his race law proposal. Even the IPA warns him.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/conservative-think-tank-the-institute-of-public-affairs-gives-george-brandis-race-law-ultimatum-20140502-zr2do.html
    Morriscum’s character exposed – again!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/secret-blacklist-of-immigration-lawyers-20140503-37oyw.html
    What in the hell is going on here?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/lost-in-the-australian-gulag-four-years-behind-bars-without-sign-of-release-20140503-zr3r1.html
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/asylum-seekers-languishing-in-detention-20140503-zr3eg.html
    Peter Martin with an interesting look at the risks of certain privatisation targets.
    http://www.essentialbaby.com.au/community/in-outsourcing-both-sides-of-the-coin-need-viewing-20140502-zr35q.html
    A “Fiona Nash” moment for Abbott?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-faces-another-conflict-of-interest-scandal-20140503-zr2t2.html
    The usual good contribution from Peter FitzSimons.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/feathers-should-fly-on-this-greedy-goose-chase-20140502-zr3bb.html
    Christine Milne summed Abbott quite nicely here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-say-abbotts-an-international-embarrassment-after-indonesia-snub-20140503-37obq.html

  • 149
    BK
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 7:09 am | Permalink

    Section 2 . . .

    Babyface Dutton’s health fear mongering called out by experts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/experts-sceptical-about-health-minister-peter-duttons-health-funding-crisis-20140503-zr3gl.html
    There’s only one thing missing here – available jobs.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/03/newstart-age-to-rise-to-25-in-coalition-budget-proposal
    The Conversation pulls apart the CoA report.
    http://tinyurl.com/kh6m2vw
    http://tinyurl.com/mays69m
    The CoA recommendations are dire for Canberra,
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/audit-commissions-15000-public-service-job-cuts-looking-shakier-20140502-zr38f.html
    Marcus Padley puts private schooling into stark economic reality.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/2×24-at-any-of-our-schools-so-do-the-sums-and-choose-20140502-37nbj.html
    MUST SEE! David Pope on pre-budget jitters.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html

  • 150
    Dee
    Posted Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 7:15 am | Permalink

    Nearly three-quarters of voters — 72 per cent — believe Mr Abbott’s debt tax is a “broken promise”, and it’s a fear shared by deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop and senior ministers, who are understood to have raised concerns at last Monday’s cabinet meeting. During the meeting, Ms Bishop, who was on a phone hook- up, warned “our people won’t like it”.

    “our people won’t like it”

    Wonder who Bishop is referring to?

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