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Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The second in what looks like it might be a regular monthly series of Galaxy polls finds Labor opening a lead after a dead heat in last month’s poll.

The Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1391 – quite a bit bigger than Galaxy polls have traditionally been in the past – which shows Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 at the last such poll a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and Palmer United is up two to 6%. The poll also finds 65% opposed to the paid parental leave scheme proceeding “in the current budgetary environment”, compared with 23% in support. Seventy-two per cent say they would rate the proposed deficit levy a broken promise, after being prompted that “Tony Abbott announced before the election that there would be no new taxes”, compared with 21% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE: Possum, who reads more carefully than some of us, observes that the higher sample size is due to a change in methodology, with the live interviewing (which I believe in Galaxy’s case includes a subset of mobile phone polling) supplemented by an online panel.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has Labor’s lead up from 52-48 to 54-46, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 39% for the Coalition. More to follow.

UPDATE 3: Full ReachTEL results here, showing primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition (down 1.1% on a poll conducted in fortnight ago), 39.6% for Labor (up 2.2%), 11.2% for the Greens (down 0.3%) and 6.0% for Palmer United (up 0.4%). Also featured are leadership ratings on a five-point scale, in which Tony Abbott has a very good or good rating from 26.5% (down 4.3%) and poor or very poor from 56.8% (up 5.0%), while Bill Shorten’s respective numbers are 20.8% (up 1.8%) and 42.2% (down 0.4%). A 1% deficit levy has a net unfavourable if applied at $80,000 per annum (34.2% to 40.7%), becoming strongly favourable at $180,000 (59.3% to 23.4%), but 60.2% believe such a levy would break an election promise against 23.5% who think otherwise. Co-payments for doctor visits have 33.5% support and 56.5% opposition, with 59.0% thinking it a broken promise against 28.4% not; and 47.2% would support reducing the size of the public service to bring the budget to surplus versus 34.3% opposed.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): Morgan now offers its fortnightly result as well, part of a glut of polling as everyone returns to the party following consecutive long weekends (Newspoll to follow this evening). It adds to the general picture of a blowout in having Labor’s lead at 55-45 (up from 52-48) on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 (up from 52-48) on previous election preferences, the primary votes being 37% for Labor (up three), 37.5% for the Coalition (down one), 12% for the Greens (down one) and 5.5% for Palmer United (up half).

1880
  • 1801
    liyana
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    These guys are clueless on science…

  • 1802
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    …and I suspect they have assisted the government convince people (the voters/tax payers in particular) that the government is right and the students just think they are entitled.

    Aren’t you forgetting that the vast majority of voters don’t watch Q&A?

    Oh, and aren’t you forgetting that if we want to reach the Utopian state that the Commission of Audit describes, we need more people with university degrees, so the government gets the money to ensure that Tony Abbott becomes THE INFRASTRUCTURE PRIME MINISTER.

  • 1803
    mari
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    I would have likes to have gone full time, but was just before Whitlam, I studied by correspondence, worked part time and had a couple of kids but was fortunate enough to have a very supportive OH

  • 1804
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    @1794

    Except when you can’t get either, because you are forced out of the market.

  • 1805
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    Well there you go… Newspoll 53-47; Greens 14 +3

  • 1806
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    By the way, the Commission of Audit says that students should start paying back their HECS/FEE-HELP debts when they reach the minimum wage.

    Which of course would send them below the minimum wage.

    But it isn’t like the Commission of Audit put much thought into their report.

  • 1807
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    Well there you go… Newspoll 53-47; Greens 14 +3

    The greens are completely hopeless. They demand that we accept the science on climate change but refuse to accept the science that GMO are safe.

    They are complete idiots.

  • 1808
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    And of course you being liberals, forcing the pricing of education (which should be provided by the Goverment) is going through the roof like Housing prices.

    But no, you guys don’t give a crap.

  • 1809
    roger bottomley
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    Fran, Milne and Di Natale doing well.

  • 1810
    liyana
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    I would never have gone to uni if the fees were as high as they are now. Being from working class people, that much debt would have prevented my family from even encouraging me to think about going…

    I have a HECS debt but not at the current levels.

  • 1811
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    “@SamCD01: The Leader of the House doesn’t know who the Deputy Speaker is. #qanda”

  • 1812
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    “@danliveshere: And that hung parliament brought in Gonski, NBN, NDIS, carbon pricing. Yeah it obviously didn’t work #qanda #pynelogic”

  • 1813
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    Ha. Pyne just forgot who the deputy speaker is

  • 1814
    geoffrey
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    HECS is pernicious non means tested and unlike gst constantly manipulable. students and artists should not be exploited economically. try the mines

    i didn’t see it but sounds like SA were right on target.

  • 1815
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    “@Vic_Rollison: If Pyne has achieved one thing in his entire life (if), it will be to wake up a generation of students who weren’t interested in politics.”

  • 1816
    psyclaw
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    Pyne asked “wjo is the deputy speaker?” and he doesn’t know.

    Anna Burke has to tell him.

    The Leader of the House did not know who his deputy speaker is!

    What a bunch of lazy rent seekers the Abbotteers are. Pyne did SFA re Education as shadow, (same level of interest and skill as Dutton’s energetic role as shadow Health) does less as Minister, and god knows who is running the House.

  • 1817
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    The SA were embarrassing

  • 1818
    geoffrey
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    pyne wants to increase fees by 20% or something. have students pay 55% of costs where now they pay 45% … we already have a bifurcated dysfunctional secondary system thanks to howard’s choices. why can’t i like liberals even a little? a bit of respect? something?

  • 1819
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    @jason_om: The banner in question #qanda http://t.co/EAYdfhxRCG

  • 1820
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    Lateline interviewing Shepherd about donations

  • 1821
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    SA are embarrassing, but Pyne is a dickhead.

    So over all it’s a nil all draw.

  • 1822
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    guytaur @1815

    Great tweet, lets hope it continues because youth are not on this governments agenda.

  • 1823
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

    It’s the trust issue again. The paths in 2010/2011 and 2013/2014 are so eerily similar. Broken promise and loss of trust compounded by the taint of party corruption.

    Basically we are seeing a growing disconnect between the political elite and the rest of society.

    Things are going pretty much as I suggested they would. The failure of Rudd/Gillard have us a Liberal government that never properly learned the lessons of 2007 and had an adequate time in opposition re-building.

    It’s all pretty sobering.

  • 1824
    billie
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    Great to see students are still revolting – bring back Paris 1968!

  • 1825
    WarrenPeace
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    I find it hard to believe that Labors Primary vote is 34 .06 higher than the election. that will drag Bludgertracker down

  • 1826
    WarrenPeace
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    I find it hard to believe that Labors Primary vote is 34, .06 higher than the election. that will drag Bludgertracker down

  • 1827
    J341983
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    1825 – Not with the Greens primary where it is.

  • 1828
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    david

    I see the failure as the electorates readiness to accept the Abbott government as an alternative.

  • 1829
    Tom Hawkins
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    SUPPORT for the Coalition has plunged to its lowest level in almost four years and voter dis­satisfaction with Tony Abbott has jumped to the highest point since he became Prime Minister as the government prepares to deliver across-the-board pain in its first budget.

    The latest Newspoll also shows Bill Shorten is just two points behind Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister, although support for Labor is flat and virtually unchanged since its election defeat.

  • 1830
    Sir sustainable future
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    Shows On – I’m a green and I agree with you about GMO. there is nothing inherently wrong with GM as a plant and animal breeding tool, but I disagree that it is always ‘safe’. there are several examples where failure to think things through have had serious negative effects. As with any technology it has potential to have negative effects if used wrongly. it also should be used as a tool within a holistic system that considers ecological and natural selection pressures. I think we need to use GM and use it well to increase food, fibre and fuel production and reduce environmental impacts.

    i also agree with you about SA – however, if the abc was truly balanced, they’d have an SA rep on QUANDA to balance the far right IPA and other loons they have on every week and seemingly on every abc show. the IPA tools suggestion that they fact that SA got into the studio showed ABC leftist bias was a breathtaking insight into how these loon think. it’s your right to be a bigot, but not to express a left wing opinion.

  • 1831
    sceptic
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    guytaur @1819

    SA may have the passion, unfortunately not the sence to unfurl the banner the right way round

  • 1832
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    The Australian frontpage.

    Coalition support plunges: Newspoll

  • 1833
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m

    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (-4) ALP 53 (+4) #auspol

    At least it’s going to the proper way.

  • 1834
    victoria
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll has Labor primary at 34%
    Reachtel at 40%
    Galaxy at 37%
    Morgan at 37%

  • 1835
    Sir sustainable future
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    and on Q&A, was that the first time Bob Downe/ Mark Trevorrow has not been the most camp bloke in the room?

  • 1836
    J341983
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    FTR – I don’t buy ALP primary at 34% …

  • 1837
    Jackol
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    How on earth would Shepherd know what the Australian public voted for specifically?

  • 1838
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    @1827

    Where it’s at again is the minority government situation with Greens holding Balance of Power9?).

  • 1839
    Darn
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    WarrenPeace
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:52 pm | PERMALINK
    I find it hard to believe that Labors Primary vote is 34, .06 higher than the election. that will drag Bludgertracker down

    Why should we believe it IS really that low. If all the other polls are averaged out it is about 37 or 38, a big difference.

    Intuitively, with everything that has been going on, it beggars belief that it could still be as low as 34.

  • 1840
    victoria
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    And Essential at 38%

  • 1841
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    “@GrogsGamut: Shepherd has certainly got the talking points down pat #lateline”

  • 1842
    mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    T Shepherd on Lateline is very unconvincing.

  • 1843
    liyana
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Well said davidwh- it just seems that politicians on both sides have no idea about living as an ordinary person in this society – the disconnect is incredible and could become dangerous..

    As for the SA – many of them will mellow and become fine upstanding members of the ALP in a few years-

    At least they are interested in politics…

  • 1844
    bryon
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    Late in the day, but money for meets. The difference is that no-one would pay $22k to meet to Joe the member for North Sydney. They are paying to meet the Treasurer. An Officer of the Crown. So ignoring the moral corruption, any $ such an event brings in should go to Her Majesty’s revenue.

  • 1845
    davidwh
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    Mike the real failure was that people came to believe they had no alternative. Only one party to blame for that though. Australia will pay a price for the insanity Labor inflicted upon itself from 2010 to 2013. Basically I think we are stuck with second best until both the majors get their acts together. It will take a while yet before that happens.

    Thank heavens governments don’t really run countries … Only governments :)

  • 1846
    imacca
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    as the government prepares to deliver across-the-board pain in its first budget.

    People keep saying this, or words to that effect. I have yet to hear of any proposal that will inflict and “pain” on corporate Australia. Only the fuel excise thing which it looks like the “Friends of Jo” may have knocked that on the head as quickly as it came up.

  • 1847
    Sir sustainable future
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    sheppard lateline makes grandpa simpson look switched on and articulate. he still cannot name any medical person consulted in their proposed gutting of medicare. di natale at the senate hearings was obviously the first doctor he’d spoken to. he’d now fucking up his minimum wage argument completely. what an evil ideological prick.

  • 1848
    Sir sustainable future
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    sheppard on lateline makes grandpa simpson look switched on and articulate. he still cannot name any medical person consulted in their proposed gutting of medicare. di natale at the senate hearings was obviously the first doctor he’d spoken to. he’d now fucking up his minimum wage argument completely. what an evil ideological prick.

  • 1849
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    Shows On – I’m a green

    I feel sorry for you.

  • 1850
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    sheppard on lateline makes grandpa simpson look switched on and articulate. he still cannot name any medical person consulted in their proposed gutting of medicare. di natale at the senate hearings was obviously the first doctor he’d spoken to. he’d now fucking up his minimum wage argument completely. what an evil ideological prick.

    HOLY CRAP! Those senate hearings were 4 days ago! He hasn’t had a chance to do some home work since then?

    I guess he was only paid $85K for 6 months work, so I shouldn’t expect too much from him.

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