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Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The second in what looks like it might be a regular monthly series of Galaxy polls finds Labor opening a lead after a dead heat in last month's poll.

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The Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1391 – quite a bit bigger than Galaxy polls have traditionally been in the past – which shows Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 at the last such poll a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and Palmer United is up two to 6%. The poll also finds 65% opposed to the paid parental leave scheme proceeding “in the current budgetary environment”, compared with 23% in support. Seventy-two per cent say they would rate the proposed deficit levy a broken promise, after being prompted that “Tony Abbott announced before the election that there would be no new taxes”, compared with 21% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE: Possum, who reads more carefully than some of us, observes that the higher sample size is due to a change in methodology, with the live interviewing (which I believe in Galaxy’s case includes a subset of mobile phone polling) supplemented by an online panel.

UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has Labor’s lead up from 52-48 to 54-46, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 39% for the Coalition. More to follow.

UPDATE 3: Full ReachTEL results here, showing primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition (down 1.1% on a poll conducted in fortnight ago), 39.6% for Labor (up 2.2%), 11.2% for the Greens (down 0.3%) and 6.0% for Palmer United (up 0.4%). Also featured are leadership ratings on a five-point scale, in which Tony Abbott has a very good or good rating from 26.5% (down 4.3%) and poor or very poor from 56.8% (up 5.0%), while Bill Shorten’s respective numbers are 20.8% (up 1.8%) and 42.2% (down 0.4%). A 1% deficit levy has a net unfavourable if applied at $80,000 per annum (34.2% to 40.7%), becoming strongly favourable at $180,000 (59.3% to 23.4%), but 60.2% believe such a levy would break an election promise against 23.5% who think otherwise. Co-payments for doctor visits have 33.5% support and 56.5% opposition, with 59.0% thinking it a broken promise against 28.4% not; and 47.2% would support reducing the size of the public service to bring the budget to surplus versus 34.3% opposed.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): Morgan now offers its fortnightly result as well, part of a glut of polling as everyone returns to the party following consecutive long weekends (Newspoll to follow this evening). It adds to the general picture of a blowout in having Labor’s lead at 55-45 (up from 52-48) on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 (up from 52-48) on previous election preferences, the primary votes being 37% for Labor (up three), 37.5% for the Coalition (down one), 12% for the Greens (down one) and 5.5% for Palmer United (up half).

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1880 comments

1,880 thoughts on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

  1. AussieAchmed

    #1577

    Aren’t they a great advertisement for the private schools that supposedly educated them???

    Not great advert for the private school system if these are the best they can produce.

  2. WeWantPaul

    [Business people pay those prices because it is worth it. They aren’t charitable donations because they think Hockey or Shorten is such a fun bloke. They know they will get a return and that’s why they keep doing it.
    ]

    In most cases it isn’t nearly that simple or cut and dried. Kind of a cliffs notes summary of the subtleties of influence, power and proximity to power.

    It is clearly a situation that would attract the corrupt and encourage corruption in the weak but I don’t think it is innately corrupt. In theory we shouldn’t have weak ministers that are not above reproach.

    I think the focus needs to be on the decision making. Any decision that is not made in the best interests of the country first is a corrupt decision regardless of whether or not it is a bad decision.

    It is just something that is hard to prove.

    I would say that state parliaments should have at least as strict rules as they impose on local government.

  3. billie

    Bob Ellis at Independent Australia starts his latest article . . .

    The one thing Joe Hockey needs to be able to bring down a Budget that cuts money to the needy – moral authority – he does not have any more.

    The Sydney Morning Herald headline, Treasurer for sale, and the ‘VIP’ meetings Joe accorded to those who paid up to 22,000 dollars to the Millennium Forum — his North Sydney backers’ front organisation, means every cent he allots to advantage big business hereafter, every cent he denies teenagers, old people and the mothers of school children, is tainted.

    And he really should stand down as treasurer till he is investigated

    see http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-things-we-do-for-love-joe-hockey-after-dark,6445

  4. poroti

    AussieAchmed

    Fatty and skinny in perfect harmony.

  5. sprocket_

    The NSW Liberal Party is reverting to type

    [The New South Wales Liberals are seeking to gag members trying to force party reform, as well as monitoring social media and sending letters threatening expulsion to party members who tweet about politics.

    This comes as the NSW division is rocked by the Independent Commission against Corruption’s (Icac) revelations and the federal party is advocating radical changes to the Racial Discrimination Act in order to protect freedom of speech.

    The letters threatening expulsions for tweeting have been sent even when the tweets are innocuous, and even when the tweets are posted without mentioning any party affiliation.

    Almost half of a lengthy meeting of the 22-member state executive on Friday night was spent discussing whether to expel two members who had made unauthorised public comments about party reform, including about the need to remove “in-house lobbyists” from the state executive.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/05/nsw-liberals-gag-reform-twitter?CMP=twt_gu

  6. mikehilliard

    [THE only reason Prime Minister Tony Abbott dumped a planned trip to Indonesia was for hands-on involvement in his government’s first budget, a senior minister insists]

    I thought everyone including his own lot know Tony is an economic illiterate.

  7. Jackol

    I thought everyone including his own lot know Tony is an economic illiterate.

    That’s ok, this budget isn’t about the economy.

  8. Greensborough Growler

    mike,

    And haven’t things gone so swell since Tony went hands on!

  9. CTar1

    mike

    [I thought everyone including his own lot know Tony is an economic illiterate.]

    That puts him a step-up on HoJo and Cormann in trying to finalise a Budget.

  10. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ GG 1578

    The use of money or other favours to influence the decision-making of government or other officials to and end that is either favourable or unfavourable to specific individuals and/or organisations.

    That’s what bribery is – using your money to make your vote worth more than that of others.

    @ zoomster 1579

    Incorrect. Per the AEC Candidates’ Handbook:
    http://www.aec.gov.au/elections/candidates/files/candidates-handbook.pdf

    In order to run for Parliament, you must either receive the nomination of a registered Party, or be nominated by a given number of “eligible electors”.

    The exception is if you are an incumbent independent, in which case you only need the signature of one other person to nominate.

  11. zoidlord

    If businesses have the money to donate to parties, then they have enough money to do pay employees.

  12. Dee

    [THE only reason Prime Minister Tony Abbott dumped a planned trip to Indonesia was for hands-on involvement in his government’s first budget, a senior minister insists]

    Why didn’t anyone in the government inform SBY?

  13. Boerwar

    Q Why won’t Abbott talk to SBY?
    A Because SBY refused to pay the $11,000 fee.

  14. ShowsOn

    The budget would be better if Abbott went to Indonesia and stayed there for a few months.

  15. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ ShowsOn 1594

    Only if we stopped paying for his accommodation here in the meantime.

  16. Thomas. Paine.

    [Victoria breached United Nations’ International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights by not compensating police bashing victim
    7.30
    By Louise Milligan

    Updated 57 minutes ago
    Corinna Horvath in hospital after she was bashed by Victorian police officers in 1996. Photo: Corinna Horvath in hospital after she was bashed by Victorian police officers. (ABC News)
    Map: VIC

    The United Nations has delivered a scathing decision on the Victorian Government and its police force, saying it has breached the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) after failing to compensate a woman viciously bashed by police.

    Corinna Horvath, from Somerville on Melbourne’s southern fringe, was beaten by officers from the local Hastings police station in 1996.

    The officers broke down her door without a warrant, handcuffed her and beat her up to a dozen times, leaving her unconscious and with a broken nose pouring with clotted blood.

    “My face was beaten to a pulp. My nose was broken – suspected broken jaw,” Ms Horvath told the ABC’s 7.30 program.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-05/victoria-breached-un-covenant-in-treatment-of-corinna-horvath/5431690

    And they didn’t even sack these two policemen…at least one should have been prosecuted and sent to jail. But they ended up with promotions…and the girls still waiting on compensation.

    Jesus, is this even Australia? We become more and more like the US.

  17. William Bowe

    Update of today’s counting in Tasmanian upper house seat of Huon, which has confirmed independent Robert Armstrong’s win over Peter Hodgman, the Liberal candidate and uncle of the Prmeier.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/03/huon-and-rosevears-live/

  18. davidwh

    Hockey is in the clear. Anthony Albanese gave him a clean bill of health. 😉

  19. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ TP 1596

    Is it really that surprising that the Australian Government and its associated bodies don’t feel like complying with international law?

    Quelle surprise!

  20. zoomster

    Aha! Thanks, Arrnea.

    An independent needs 100 signatures — unless they’re an incumbent, when they need only one.

  21. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ sprocket_ 1600

    “Whacker”. What a word.

  22. confessions

    [Q Why won’t Abbott talk to SBY?
    A Because SBY refused to pay the $11,000 fee.]

    😆

    Clever Boerwar.

  23. zoomster

    Albanese’s blanket ‘there has been no corruption in Federal politics in my time there’ seemed a bit sweeping to me, given (cough) some of the things I know about one particular person.

  24. AussieAchmed

    If businesses have the money to donate to parties, then they have enough money to do pay employees.

    ==============================================

    they have enough to lower their prices

  25. Greensborough Growler

    AS,

    Money and politics is a reality. You really should get used to it.

    But influence pedalling is not just about money. Old school tie, religious affiliations, where you grew up and many other factors feed in to this pernicious evil of influence.

    Drafting the laws would be a nightmare and totally unenforceable.

    How would you legislate the situation today where a Coal mining company donated a person to the Libs top write their environment policy?

  26. Fulvio Sammut

    Packer Whackers – wasn’t that the name given to Kerry’s cricket traitors?

  27. ShowsOn

    Abbott’s government should’ve died of shame long ago.

  28. zoomster

    Hmmm…sorry, William, I think that post is inappropriate.

  29. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ GG 1606

    It would be treated as a conflict of interest and dealt with in the same fashion that an minister owning shares in a company operating in his portfolio would be dealt with.

  30. Socrates

    GetUp is starting a campaign against the most regressive measures proposed in the budget, which is most of them.
    [The result is nothing less than the end of the fair go for all Australians:

    A new $15 “Sick Tax” to see our GP and fees to visit public hospitals

    Slashing the minimum wage by $130 per week for low-income earners

    Increasing the pension age to 70 and including the family home in means testing

    Killing off or clawing back family tax benefits relied on by the vast majority of Australian families

    Increasing students’ share of university fees by 34%

    When billionaire-backed lobbyists disguised as independent experts get the ear of the media and those in power, we need to speak out even more strongly for ordinary Australians. So to fight back, we’re partnering with the Australia Institute — a leading progressive policy voice — to put everyday Australians back at the heart of this

    Click here to become a Core Member of GetUp and advance our people-centred vision of Australia against a radically conservative agenda:]
    http://www.getup.org.au/BecomeACoreMember

    I think the GetUp criticism is pretty fair. Liberal party stalwarts are complaining about the only budget measure I agree with – the tax increase for those on over $100k.

  31. ShowsOn

    Is James Packer a fit and proper person to own a casino?

  32. sprocket_

    [Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 8:09 pm | PERMALINK
    Packer Whackers – wasn’t that the name given to Kerry’s cricket traitors?]

    Packer Whackers where the heart starter devices he funded for all NSW ambulances. After one revived him on a polo field.

  33. Fulvio Sammut

    Maybe they did – what’s left is coterie of zombies.

  34. psyclaw

    GG #1337

    I agree that Shorten does not have to “cut through” at the moment.

    The only question is will he be able to when the time is right …. I think yes, for sure. And he’s showing good judgement that now is not the time.

    Abbott is getting sufficient bad publicity all on his own.

    Right now the swinging voters don’t give a stuff about who is the alternative PM …. they’ll sort that out whenever an election comes on and as far as they’re concerned they don’t have to waste energy on forming an opinion until then.

  35. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ Socrates 1611

    Quite so. This is Fightback on steroids. Perhaps Shorten wants to do Abbott slowly?

    Pity he doesn’t have the rhetorical acumen of Keating.

  36. AussieAchmed

    Strikes by China’s transport workers increase as incomes decline http://www.clb.org.hk/en/content/strikes-china%E2%80%99s-transport-workers-increase-incomes-decline

    No doubt we will see the same in Australia

  37. Greensborough Growler

    Psyclaw,

    Agree.

    I expect the weapon of choice will be the COA report. I’m sure there are many areas for Labor to remind the electorate that the current Lib Government has an extreme agenda written and sponsored by the IPA.

    Sort of the same campaign the Libs always run against Labor and the unions.

  38. AussieAchmed

    Abbott couldn’t even get the CoA to stay within budget…what chance for Australia

    Commission of Audit goes $1 MILLION over budget

  39. BK

    AA
    What are you carrying on about? It’s only a 100% blowout!

  40. confessions

    [Commission of Audit goes $1 MILLION over budget]

    How many cheese sandwiches and cups of coffee does this represent? 😀

  41. citizen

    On Friday someone in the government told the media that Abbott was not meeting SBY because the navy was intercepting an asylum seeker boat and the returning orange lifeboat might embarrass SBY.

    Why has it taken until late today for Morrison of all people, to say Abbott didn’t go because he has a “very hands-on” approach to the budget and “he’s steering the ship”?

    The whole episode sounds like Abbott & co have no idea what they’re doing about the budget and don’t care about Australia’s international diplomatic reputation.

  42. Steve777

    Re GG @1618: at the next election Labor should be urging voters to disregard whatever policies the Coalition present at the time, including / especially any sweeteners. The COA Report represents what they really want to do. Not only the report contents – whatever Abbott hasn’t done by then but also what he has done – proof that you can’t believe anything he promises.

  43. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ AussieAchmed 1619

    Not to mention that the net effect of adopting proposals for the commission supposed to recommend savings to the budget would be to put it billions further into the red.

  44. AussieAchmed

    Abbott is slowly working his way through the first 75 policies from the IPA

    1 Repeal the carbon tax, and don’t replace it. It will be one thing to remove the burden of the carbon tax from the Australian economy. But if it is just replaced by another costly scheme, most of the benefits will be undone.

    2 Abolish the Department of Climate Change

    3 Abolish the Clean Energy Fund
    6 Repeal the renewable energy target

    7 Return income taxing powers to the states
    11 Introduce fee competition to Australian universities
    18 Eliminate family tax benefits
    20 Means-test Medicare

    23 End mandatory disclosures on political donations

    30 Cease subsidising the car industry
    34 End preferences for Industry Super Funds in workplace relations laws
    39 Reintroduce voluntary student unionism at universities
    44 Devolve environmental approvals for major projects to the states
    48 Privatise Australia Post

    49 Privatise Medibank

    50 Break up the ABC and put out to tender each individual function

    51 Privatise SBS
    52 Reduce the size of the public service from current levels of more than 260,000 to at least the 2001 low of 212,784
    60 Remove all remaining tariff and non-tariff barriers to international trade
    69 Immediately halt construction of the National Broadband Network and privatise any sections that have already been built
    72 Privatise the CSIRO

  45. psyclaw

    GG

    You’d think the Labor supporters here would at least in their own minds be able to give ’emselves a little talkin’ to like “well we paid dearly for leadershit for 4 years, so it’d be best if leadershit went 100% off the agenda for a coupla years”.

    Some can and have given themselves such advice…. others are just too much sucked in by irrelevancies.

    This is all the more so when Abbott is doing so well to limit his term of office all by himself, and when his team is so readily cooperative in that task at hand.

  46. AussieAchmed

    Commission of Audit goes $1 MILLION over budget

    Abbott could reduce the payment to his Manly RL clib by a million to balance it out

  47. Greensborough Growler

    psyclaw,

    The past is another planet.

    I’m more interested in the future because that is where I will be living.

  48. Socrates

    Arnea 1616

    Agreed. This is a great opportunity for Labor, with so many different groups under threat from the proposals. Shorten and the whole Labor front bench must cut through on this. It is no time for any small target strategies.

  49. AussieAchmed

    Mike Carlton ‏@MikeCarlton01 · 5m
    The economy is truly stuffed. Westpac made only $3.6bn profit this first half.

    sarcasm???

  50. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ psyclaw 1626

    You’d think the Labor supporters here would at least in their own minds be able to give ‘emselves a little talkin’ to like “well we paid dearly for leadershit for 4 years, so it’d be best if leadershit went 100% off the agenda for a coupla years”.

    Maybe if Labor hadn’t picked a leader who symbolised everything wrong with Labor during the “leadershit” era, on the basis of the factions overriding the membership’s clearly-stated will.

  51. zoomster

    AS

    Well, if they’d picked someone like Joel Fitzgibbon or Kim Carr, you might have a point.

  52. psyclaw

    Citizen

    I think Abbott stayed at home because so many policies and actions and past events are simultaneously unravelling and the unravelling momentum has now got a good roll on.

    He’s staying at home under the misapprehension that he can calm things down in the electorate (he can’t; they don’t trust him), that he can assist with turning a crap budget into something a bit sweeter (he can’t; no ability and the horse has bolted), and he is probably wanting to keep a close eye on his internal enemies ie the moderates who may at last be becoming aware that he’s an incompetent jerk, and are being pricked by their consciences.

  53. guytaur

    Good intro for Labor on 4 Corners.

    ICAC and uncle arfur mentioned as one pushing for Fofa softening

  54. zoomster

    Oh, and ‘the factions’ didn’t get Shorten up – the votes of those who knew him and worked with him did.

    MPs voted across factional lines.

  55. guytaur

    “@4corners: “Australia’s 4 biggest banks now control 80% of the nation’s financial planning industry”. Watch @adele_ferguson’s report next on #4Corners.”

  56. confessions

    [The only reason Prime Minister Tony Abbott dumped a planned trip to Indonesia was for hands-on involvement in his government’s first budget, a senior minister insists.

    Immigration Minister Scott Morrison denies a reported boat turn-back operation is behind Mr Abbott’s cancelled plans to attend a regional forum in Bali on Tuesday.]

    Hilarious. You want to ensure the message received by Indonesians that Abbott’s cancelled trip there wasn’t to do with more boat infractions, you don’t send your hysterical Immigration Minister out to do your public bidding.

    Seriously, where is this now-infamous Credlin magic which seemingly held all these testosterone fueled morons in check leading up to the election? They are now off the leash and going their hardest to show their true colours.

  57. psyclaw

    Arnea

    The fact is that Shorten has been selected leader. And many think he can do the job well.

    Move on! Give him a chance.

  58. confessions

    Shorten was not selected leader, he was elected leader in an historic federal leadership ballot by ALP members nationwide.

  59. zoomster

    fess

    an election held despite it not being in the party rule book — in the belief that it would unite party members behind the leader.

    If those on the losing side keep b*tching, then the clear message to caucus will be that it’s not worth the trouble, and they may as well continue to make the decision all by themselves.

  60. WeWantPaul

    I hold to the views I expressed earlier on $10k a head meals not being corruption on their own, however I found the ALP response today to be pissweak and disappointing.

    I think that there is a clear case for an ICAC chaired by a High Court of Federal Court Judge with broad powers and properly independent and funded. That Abbott and Albo say it isn’t needed would make me think it is more needed rather than less. I think Albo sounded weak and stupid echoing the Abbott ‘oh Canberra is clean line.’ first time I’ve thought maybe the party got it right with Shorten.

    Donations – I feel dirty saying it but I agree with Jackie Kelly – every donation, I’d set the bar at $50 bucks, should be disclosed online with free and easy access for the whole public within 7 days of the donation being made, and donations should be banned for a period of 14 days before the election, so voters have a full 7 days to review the donations register before the election. Corporate donations should also require the name of an individual that authorises the donation. Yes you can still hide donations and use trusts to donate but at least you’d have one human being linked to the donation.

    I’d also be happy with all unions, and lobby organisations (you know all those associations and incs that lobby like the BCA) to have a membership and membership fee disclosure obligation as part of the same register. You would have an exception for think tanks but ban them from donating money.

    You could have a rule/exception where you can raise up to $1000 in cash at a function and just disclose that function “sundowner cash donations / raffle proceeds etc $325.”

    This is in relation to individual candidates and the specific fund for their election. General party slush funds, and other funding pools should have much tougher rules and obligations, eg every donation of any amount should be disclosed in full within 24 hours and a requirement that the body disclose the names of all the decision makers related to that donation and the source of the funds where funds were ‘directed’ through the pool.

    Again I thought labor sounded like a pathetic echo of Abbott today. We know that both the Labor and Liberal barrels in NSW had a lot of bad apples and only a fool would believe a politician running the ‘clean in canberra’ line.

  61. guytaur

    Regarding Shorten

    I too have doubts. However he has shown some signs of being up to the job.

    The current polls are nothing to complain about.

    Its a waiting game. We will get more of an idea from a budget reply speech. The making or breaking of Shorten as Loto is still to come

    Shorten can be broken at any time up to the next election. His making will be winning that election. So any judgement now is premature in my opinion.

  62. geoffrey

    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 8:12 pm | PERMALINK
    Is James Packer a fit and proper person to own a casino?

    ——–good question

    no

  63. ShowsOn

    [Its a waiting game. We will get more of an idea from a budget reply speech. The making or breaking of Shorten as Loto is still to come]
    The budget reply speech is probably the first time most people care about listening to what the opposition leader thinks.

  64. confessions

    zoom:

    Exactly. This is an advancement to be proud of, not one to be allowed to be sullied just because some may not like the election outcome.

    There’s a bigger goal here, and I feel that some Labor supporters are allowing their personal agendas to seep through to the detriment of this goal.

  65. guytaur

    @OECD_Edu: #Inequality undermines economic growth & well-being: New OECD report just out at #OECDwk http://t.co/Bqd4Ox5zK6

  66. Jackol

    Albanese has shown poor judgment on these probity matters before – he was in the meeting that just shrugged its shoulders and let Macdonald stick around despite serious concerns being raised.

    I’d charitably say that Albanese wants to believe the best of people.

  67. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ Jackol 1648

    Better to be an idealist who is a poor judge of character than to be fundamentally corrupt.

  68. deblonay

    Mike Whitney,a US writer in Counterpunch denounces Obama and the US for it’s involvement in the Ukraine and as in Iraq and Vietnam… sees the US Empire as the bringer of lies and death
    The bloodbath in Odessa is aniother episode in the history of murder by the US

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/05/05/obamas-bloodbath-in-odessa/

  69. guytaur

    “@greencate: #4corners shows why we need a great deal more financial regulation… not less @JoeHockey #fofa Shame on you @CommBank”

  70. ShowsOn

    [Mike Whitney]
    One of the best left arm fast bowlers and gladiator referees that I’ve ever seen.

  71. WeWantPaul

    [@OECD_Edu: #Inequality undermines economic growth & well-being: New OECD report just out at #OECDwk http://t.co/Bqd4Ox5zK6%5D

    Have they released a second report or is this the one i read months ago? Grog referred to it at the time.

  72. confessions

    [Donations – I feel dirty saying it but I agree with Jackie Kelly – every donation, I’d set the bar at $50 bucks]

    I have mixed feelings about this. I myself have spent many years donating to the ALP. I’ve donated thousands, but always under the threshold of disclosure because it could (most likely would in numpty WA) compromise my professional standing if I were able to be publicly identified as a Labor donor, much less supporter.

    You reduce this amount to $50 and you cut off many many more people like me, people who work in a profession which puts their reputation at risk if they are able to be seen to be favouring one political party over another.

    I think the $1,000 disclosure limit is as spot on as the party could achieve.

  73. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ psyclaw 1638

    Shorten’s had about six months now to impress. He hasn’t.
    Instead, he’s focused on navel-gazing, dithering on opposition to the Coalition’s policy (not surprising, considering the Labor Right shares much of its policy with the Coalition) and not taking the fight directly to the Coalition by offering a credible alternative.

    If Shorten were elected PM tomorrow, based on what he’s said so far, nothing would actually change.

  74. Bugler

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott has defended his Treasurer’s fund-raising techniques, arguing that raising money through granting access to senior party members is preferable to taxpayers footing the bill for party funding.]

    Which is complete rubbish considering funding to parties isn’t dependent on how much they can raise independently of the taxpayers.

  75. guytaur

    WWP
    Date at top 5/5

  76. Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ confessions 1654

    And yet, your ability to donate $1,000 to the ALP means that your vote now has more power than that of people who cannot donate this much (or any at all).

    The ability for money to increase the weight of one person’s vote over another is not a feature of a healthy democracy.

  77. Jackol

    The Australian’s TV ad features wind farm turbines prominently, and then PvO with a stern-faced Hockey. Presumably feeling overtly offended.

  78. WeWantPaul

    [You reduce this amount to $50 and you cut off many many more people like me, people who work in a profession which puts their reputation at risk if they are able to be seen to be favouring one political party over another.

    I think the $1,000 disclosure limit is as spot on as the party could achieve.]

    I understand what you mean but why should any Australian be embarrassed to donate to a political party? It is wrong. There is a fool liberal at work who suggests that there should never be a political post on facebook. I find that essentially many at work don’t dislike politics they just find it uncomfortable when someone backs labor and they are asked to think.

    Have one numpty tonight telling me we should raise the GST. I asked him why. Why was this the best or fairest way to raise revenue. He had no idea, just echoing crap he’d heard.

    $1000 is way to high, but I’d be stunned if we did better.

  79. WeWantPaul

    [WWP
    Date at top 5/5]

    Ta thanks.

  80. confessions

    [And yet, your ability to donate $1,000 to the ALP means that your vote now has more power than that of people who cannot donate this much (or any at all).]

    Actually I’d argue that my membership of the party has delivered much more. Previously all I could get for my donations was a tax deduction. Now I can get a direct vote on the party’s leadership.

  81. pedant

    Mr Shorten should come straight out and announce that the ALP in government will set up a federal ICAC. And he should invite Mr Abbott, if he wishes, to do so beforehand, with ALP support. It will put some real pressure on the government. And if there are skeletons in the ALP closet, it will be better to get them out: does anyone really doubt that the ALP in the long run is better off with Messrs Obeid and McDonald, regardless of the short-term pain?

  82. AussieAchmed

    No problem with raising money through donations

    it’s what those donations buy that ends up costing the taxpayers and is the worry

  83. mikehilliard

    Shorten needs a bit more time before I pass judgment, this time next year will tell more. Abbott’s doing a stellar job of shafting himself anyhow.

  84. guytaur

    “@JakeSturmer: Wonder how many @CommBank customers will be looking their accounts tomorrow? I know a few already. Fantastic work @adele_ferguson #4corners”

  85. confessions

    [but why should any Australian be embarrassed to donate to a political party?]

    It’s not about being embarrassed but about being boxed and labelled. Some people are comfortable with this, but others not so much.

  86. Bugler

    Confessions,

    [Actually I’d argue that my membership of the party has delivered much more. Previously all I could get for my donations was a tax deduction. Now I can get a direct vote on the party’s leadership.]

    I’d agree with that, even though my donations have consisted of a $30 donation around June last year, my $5 membership fee and another $30 donation.

  87. Player One

    [ I thought everyone including his own lot know Tony is an economic illiterate. ]

    I disagree – Tony is a true “Rennassance” Liberal – he’s equally illiterate on every subject.

  88. mikehilliard

    [I hate going to see the adorable Dr Pandora so much that I wait until I have a few things to see her about. It takes a while to do my vault smear and the various other goodies. She might also slice off the weird growthy thing on the back of my head]

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/tony-shepherds-numbers-on-health-dont-add-up-20140505-zr511.html#ixzz30q3k4re1

  89. zoomster

    fess

    I understand that – I’ve got party members on my books who won’t declare themselves publically, not because they’re ashamed of belonging but because they would be punished professionally if their membership were known.

  90. WeWantPaul

    [It’s not about being embarrassed but about being boxed and labelled. Some people are comfortable with this, but others not so much.]

    I understand and I’d move to $200 as the limit as a concession for donations to a specific campaign fund established for an individual.

  91. deblonay

    The Guardian Goes to the National Rifle Assoc convention in a vast area of Indianapolis…9 acres of guns..and sees the NRA declare war on it’s opponents and saya people have to defend themselves against the Govt…Guns for all
    ..

  92. Edwina StJohn

    hi bugler,

    Do you mind your alp money going to pay thommos legal fees? What about the hookers ?

  93. WeWantPaul

    [I understand that – I’ve got party members on my books who won’t declare themselves publically, not because they’re ashamed of belonging but because they would be punished professionally if their membership were known.]

    Isn’t that a crime to punish someone for association? That is dreadful.

  94. Bugler

    Mikehilliard,

    [Shorten needs a bit more time before I pass judgment, this time next year will tell more. Abbott’s doing a stellar job of shafting himself anyhow.]

    He doesn’t come across as very spontaneous in front of the media and prefers to think of his answers, or reassess his answers while he’s in the middle of them. Makes his media appearances stilted, even though he does quite well while directly engaging with people on shows such as Q&A or out on the streets.

    However, I think he has the advantage over more charismatic leaders in that he is constantly developing a long term plan to win Government and indeed govern beyond that. We’re seeing first hand what happens when an Opposition wins Government on media dominance and shallow spin.

  95. guytaur

    “@QandA: In the #QandA audience tonight: COALITION 47%, ALP 38%, GREENS 9%.”

    I will forgive them the primary numbers as the Morgan only came out today

  96. don

    Arrnea Stormbringer@1655

    @ psyclaw 1638

    Shorten’s had about six months now to impress. He hasn’t.
    Instead, he’s focused on navel-gazing, dithering on opposition to the Coalition’s policy (not surprising, considering the Labor Right shares much of its policy with the Coalition) and not taking the fight directly to the Coalition by offering a credible alternative.

    If Shorten were elected PM tomorrow, based on what he’s said so far, nothing would actually change.

    Sadly, Shorten has not been impressive. I can’t imagine PJK sitting there and not doing much the way Shorten has. He comes across as a stereotyped chartered accountant. Dull as ditchwater.

    I don’t know what motivates him, but moving and shaking and making things happen ain’t it.

  97. pedant

    Regarding the stories which have come out of ICAC about the making of false complaints to that body about the head of Sydney Water: has there been any mention so far of the possibility of prosecuting the perpetrators for criminal defamation? (NSW Crimes Act 1900, s. 529; Maximum penalty: 3 years imprisonment)

  98. deblonay

    The US Gun Lobby…the Guardian goes to their conf
    madness aborad
    ——————-
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/28/nra-war-on-america-wayne-lapierre-indianapolis

  99. guytaur

    “@zdaniel: Lots of tweets from Bangkok, Yangon, Chiang Mai regarding what seems to be an earthquake. Stand by.”

  100. zoomster

    I remind people that the Labor party is a party of collegiate decision making. If Albanese were leader instead of Shorten, there’d be no difference at the moment when it came to policy stances.

    It’s foolish to commit to policies too far out from an election – you can end up like Beazley and rollback, where the government adopted so many of his changes to the GST that his policy ended up looking ridiculous, or like Abbott, locked into positions which are no longer relevant.

  101. Diogenes

    GG

    Plenty of things are corrupt. Some are legal, some aren’t.

    As has already been said, when you get to make the laws it’s pretty easy to make something legal.

    briefly

    Why do you think people make huge donations to meet Shorten or Abbott? They do it so they get access and special treatment.

  102. zoomster

    Don

    [I can’t imagine PJK sitting there and not doing much the way Shorten has. ]

    Just as well, really. We may all have loved PJK but the public didn’t.

  103. ShowsOn

    [I don’t know what motivates him, but moving and shaking and making things happen ain’t it.]
    Well frankly the government hasn’t done much since they were elected (other than increasing the deficit / debt).

    There’s no reason for Shorten to go around carrying on like a pork chop. But of course that all changes after the release of the budget next week. Then he has to start coming up with an argument, themes and ideas that he will take to the election.

  104. WeWantPaul

    [Why do you think people make huge donations to meet Shorten or Abbott? They do it so they get access and special treatment.]

    They clearly do it for access, you can’t make a general case for ‘special treatment’ it is merely your suspicion.

  105. zoomster

    WWP

    [Isn’t that a crime to punish someone for association? That is dreadful.]

    Difficult to prove that the reason you didn’t get that job or that promotion was because it’s known that you’re a member of a certain party.

    Hard enough proving that it’s because you’re the wrong sex!

  106. mikehilliard

    I wish everyone could get used to the idea that as much as we might like it Keating ain’t coming back.

    I agree with a lot of comments here on Shorten, the good & the bad.

    Bugler makes a very good point @1677.

    [We’re seeing first hand what happens when an Opposition wins Government on media dominance and shallow spin.]

    This might have some bearing on Shorten’s media performance. Us & many others might be expecting him to go the rabid dog but perhaps by reining it in he’s doing us all a favor, short & long term.

  107. Bugler

    ESJ,

    I can assure you that, personally, none of my money was used in such a way due to the time period mentioned. I’m also in the wrong branch to have paid it.

    I’m not across all the details, and I’m not sure it’s fair for a party to simply abandon one of their MPs on a rumour. However, I don’t think it was justified or appropriate for them to have supported his defamation case, which is what I believe you’re referring to. I’ve also said before that even if he wasn’t the over-entitled dick he is he shouldn’t have been preselected as he’s also a complete idiot and waste of space.

  108. don

    zoomster@1686

    Don


    I can’t imagine PJK sitting there and not doing much the way Shorten has.


    Just as well, really. We may all have loved PJK but the public didn’t.

    Popularity is not often a guide to what is actually needed.

    As Henry Ford said, ‘if I had asked my customers what they wanted, they’d have said faster horses’.

  109. Boerwar

    deblonay

    It is just as well Putin is not an anti-democratic, murderous, imperial thug.

  110. WeWantPaul

    [Difficult to prove that the reason you didn’t get that job or that promotion was because it’s known that you’re a member of a certain party.

    Hard enough proving that it’s because you’re the wrong sex!]

    Good point, I hope the fear is unfounded, it is disturbing. Still probably better than sexism if one of the flaws must be present.

  111. Edwina StJohn

    I’d like to pay for deblonay to meet bill shorten so he could give him some free foreign policy advice.

    Come to think of it there is probably a dozen people on here who are just aching to help bill on all sorts of policy areas. 3300 a pop would be cheap to set a refreshing new policy agenda.

    Deblonay manducat canis cibum

  112. pedant

    One thing that can be said about Mr Shorten is that he is coming across differently from Mr Abbott (in both of the latter’s incarnations, as Leader of the Opposition and PM). And that is probably a very good thing, as if people turn against Mr Abbott, they won’t want to replace him with someone similar. I don’t particularly like Mr Shorten, but to come across as low key but serious isn’t a bad thing when you want to emphasise that your opponent is a flake.

  113. don

    mikehilliard@1690

    I wish everyone could get used to the idea that as much as we might like it Keating ain’t coming back.

    Keating was one of a kind, but I’d be happy with a leader who knew what he wanted, told you what he wanted, and set out to do it.

    I don’t see Shorten as that sort of leader. I have no idea what he is really like. I see that as his fault.

    I am certainly not suggesting that he be replaced. But I can’t help feeling disappointed.

  114. zoomster

    don

    [Popularity is not often a guide to what is actually needed. ]

    Indeed not – but because PJK was unpopular, almost every good decision he made as Prime Minister was wiped out within a few years.

  115. WeWantPaul

    edwina I’d be happier for my donation to labor to be used for some union hack to visit a prostitute than I’d be to have donated to Turnbull who is vandalising the economy with his disastrously stupid and deliberately so fraudband, now that is real damage to Australia.

  116. Boerwar

    Shorten is doing pretty well, IMHO, because at this stage of the cycle the main thing he needs to do is to ensure that people are talking about Abbott and the Government.

    The biggest issue for Shorten is that Labor needs to be reformed.

    It is not something he can do on his own. If the Labor tribe does not work actively together, Shorten is irrelevant.

  117. mikehilliard

    Our shame.

    {In the three months Ms Judge was on the island, she claims in the submission to the Senate inquiry there was sexual activity in the so-called “rape dungeon” in one of the compounds and was told by the guards to carry a “rape whistle” whilse inside the centre.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/exmanus-island-workers-report-beatings-rapes-of-asylum-seekers-20140505-zr4uv.html#ixzz30q8nAV3x

  118. Diogenes

    I hope Robb is watching Four Corners about disgraceful conduct by the Commonwealth Bank and financial planners.

  119. Boerwar

    Dio
    Take home message: too much regulation.

  120. mikehilliard

    Poodle time!

  121. shellbell

    Pedant

    I have not heard anything about criminal defo but sounds plausible

  122. AussieAchmed

    fact-checked one small number in the Commission of #Audit and found a string of errors.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/tony-shepherds-numbers-on-health-dont-add-up-20140505-zr511.html

  123. guytaur

    Haha they seated the gay guy next to Pyne

  124. Bugler

    Mikehilliard,

    [Us & many others might be expecting him to go the rabid dog but perhaps by reining it in he’s doing us all a favor, short & long term.]

    I think being aggressive leads you to make more mistakes. If you make mistakes then it takes attention away from your opponents. However, I acknowledge that’s only my opinion, as I’ve never been keen on aggression and charisma in politics, while many others are. I just hope Shorten doesn’t match being “methodical” with dithering, which is something we’d only likely see much later in this term.

  125. guytaur

    “@MrPinkCarpet: Go Anna Burke #qanda”

  126. guytaur

    “@vanOnselenP: Tomorrow’s Newspoll….YIKES!”

  127. don

    zoomster@1698

    don


    Popularity is not often a guide to what is actually needed.


    Indeed not – but because PJK was unpopular, almost every good decision he made as Prime Minister was wiped out within a few years.

    What, like floating the dollar?

    Removing direct control of interest rates?

    Strong links with Indonesia?

    APEC?

    The Superannuation scheme?

    Come now.

  128. Diogenes

    BW

    The Commonwealth Back has 1.5 compliance officers to monitor 700 financial advisers advising 300,000 customers.

  129. Laocoon

    guytaur
    [“@zdaniel: Lots of tweets from Bangkok, Yangon, Chiang Mai regarding what seems to be an earthquake. Stand by.”]

    6.0 on Thai, Lao, Burma border region

    Courtesy of USGS

  130. guytaur

    “@greencate: Yep, that’d be another Lib feeling the pressure this week. #snappypyne #qanda”

  131. gloryconsequence

    PvO playing games. It’s probably not surprising.

  132. Bugler

    Dio,

    [The Commonwealth Back has 1.5 compliance officers]

    ??? Is the 0.5 a chimpanzee or something? Or am I slow and you’re being facetious… (as happens often)

  133. guytaur

    Hissing from audience.

    A first?

  134. geoffrey

    i think SMH and Age knew exactly what they were doing today – they are after abbott – and also checking the financial reforms of this hypocritical treasurer who wants to trash country for his smug business values. but they are mainly after abbott big time

  135. zoomster

    don

    you missed the ‘as Prime Minister’.

    Programs he introduced as Treasurer lasted because Bob Hawke was popular.

  136. BK

    guytaur
    Why did they hiss? Had to be Pyne, surely.

  137. imacca

    Anna Burke is good. Speaking to the questioners issue directly.

  138. geoffrey

    i already subscribe online and weekends – will buy weekday print editions for next three weeks to support fearless independent non murdoch journalism – well anything that give back to the dogs what they gave

  139. Jackol

    If Shorten does low key boring reliable I won’t have a problem with that.

    If doing so needs other ALP frontbenchers to step up and do the fighting, inspiring etc that’s a good thing IMO.

    A bit less presidential, a bit more team-based. Less messiah, less expectations, less disappointment.

    But there’s a long time to go until the next election. Let’s see how it plays out.

  140. pedant

    shellbell @ 1705: I’m not a lawyer, but in a previous life I recall being told by one that prosecutions for criminal libel (as it then was) were reserved for serious cases in which it appeared that defamatory statements were being used to undermine public officials in the performance of their duties – which seems to have been precisely the intent in the cases which have come to ICAC’s attention.

  141. Fulvio Sammut

    I’m predicting Newspoll at 57 – 43 to Labor, 2PP.

  142. guytaur

    BK

    Yes. Pyne appearing callous about funding disadvantaged youth

  143. gloryconsequence

    I’m predicting 54-46 Newspoll

  144. liyana

    Christopher Pyne makes me wanna cry- he has no empathy – this kid and his friends look very upset and I really feel for them. These are the kids who will be left behind by this heartless government. Sorry qanda comment

  145. Diogenes

    Bugler

    I think one person was a part-time compliance officer, hence the 1.5 FTE.

    ASIC basically didn’t care how bad the bank was.

  146. geoffrey

    55-45 why not

  147. guytaur

    Audience member replies to Pyne thats a lie

  148. mikehilliard

    The kids asking Pyne some tough questions. Licking his dry lips.

  149. imacca

    Pyne Unhappy. Called out directly for porkies.

  150. gloryconsequence

    Guy cutting off Pyne is an idiot

  151. Jackol

    Hmmm. Mod Lib is a fan of the “YIKES!”. Have we seen Mod Lib and PvO in the same room at the same time?

  152. geoffrey

    10 years are all dancing the toe-knee-abs-butt dance – even at catholic schools. much worse that julia. he will choke on his own medicine

  153. guytaur

    “@Thefinnigans: wow prock prissy pyne is really throwing a tanty #qanda”

  154. ShowsOn

    PJK is my favourite PM, but I doubt his personality would’ve suited being Opposition Leader.

  155. confessions

    [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 10m
    This is actually very funny… https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/23208047/audit-costs-2-5m/ … ]

    It’s not funny so much as tragic. Where are these experienced, grown up ministers we were promised?

  156. ShowsOn

    It would be funny if there is some sort of terrible Newspoll for the government that causes them to junk a bunch of their spending cuts and tax increases, which then just causes the budget to deteriorate in a year’s time.

  157. WeWantPaul

    [Hmmm. Mod Lib is a fan of the “YIKES!”. Have we seen Mod Lib and PvO in the same room at the same time?]

    They are similarly objective and wise.

  158. Bugler

    Dio,

    [ASIC basically didn’t care how bad the bank was.]

    That, I can believe.

  159. gloryconsequence

    QandA farcical

  160. mikehilliard

    Pussy Riot

  161. zoidlord

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 35s

    Those students are fools. A big disservice to their cause #qanda

  162. confessions

    It twitter is any indication my prediction of Qanda being totally overrun by Pyne and Roskam was accurate.

  163. guytaur

    Students losing their cause big time

  164. liyana

    Fantastic …go the students ! Disrupting qanda!

  165. gloryconsequence

    Huge protestors yelling in QandA studio, they’ve cut away

  166. James J

    Newspoll 2-4 May

    53-47 2PP to Labor

    Primaries: Coalition 38, Labor 34, Greens 14, Others 14

    Abbott: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 56
    Shorten: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 41

    PPM: Abbott 40, Shorten 38

  167. guytaur

    confessions

    Students did the over running.

  168. imacca

    Well they have national exposure for their protest at least.

    Ahhhh calming music from the ABC, while the riot squad intervenes?? 🙂

  169. mikehilliard

    Young & silly that’s all, remember that?

  170. liyana

    Why guytaur? They have a right to be heard…nothing wrong with student activism…

  171. imacca

    53 / 47?? Cool, i can live with that.

  172. zoidlord

    Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
    Jonathan Swan ‏@jonathanvswan 3m

    Pyne is loving this. Doing him a huge favour.

    There is a reason why next few years, our kids education and behavior will go down.

    I blame people like Pyne.

  173. daretotread

    Tony

    What a wimp

    Students with some anger. Wow! campuses where there is energy other than in the Christian fellowship

    Now I am old enough to tutt tutt with the best of them but it is good to see some passion

  174. guytaur

    @tveedercom: “Chris Pyne get out! We know what you’re all about! … (Students continue chanting)” #QandA http://t.co/PmUe3alpAQ http://t.co/6F5zp3LNIh

    QandA back to live feed

  175. gloryconsequence

    The first questioner to Pyne was interrupting him before he could even answer, then the second ‘question’ was an almost endless rant. Their points are valid, but they’re idiots. Not helping the cause.

  176. mikehilliard

    No shoe throwing yet. 😆

  177. guytaur

    liyana

    I have no problem with students being heard. Three chants would have been enough. The questioners were doing a good job.

  178. imacca

    This is one of those episodes of QANDA where i really htink Jones should be fielding questions to the other members of the panel.

  179. gloryconsequence

    Coalition primary at 38?

  180. confessions

    53-47 to Labor?

    Bring on Bludgertrack!

  181. guytaur

    “@phantomdiorama: At least the Socialist Alternative declared who they were unlike the young Libs group last week #qanda”

  182. sceptic

    Tonights Q&A fiasco shows the weakness of Q&A and TJ

    frustration everywhere you look.

  183. confessions

    Nothing from PvO.

    So much for all his YIKES! and shit. The dude’s a total player.

  184. confessions

    [Abbott: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 56
    Shorten: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 41]

    If true, then seemingly in line with earlier polling.

  185. gloryconsequence

    Certainly not a flock to Labor in the polling.

  186. mikehilliard

    Nut job IPA dude needs armband & brown shirt now.

  187. J341983

    The Abbott satisfaction and the preferred PM numbers are appalling…

  188. ShowsOn

    HEY, HEY, HO HO
    PISSY PYNE HAS GOT TO GO!

  189. rummel

    I was happy to see those students protest on QandA and use there free speach. I’m also more then happy to see them pay more money for ‘Their’ degree’s.

  190. mikehilliard

    [Certainly not a flock to Labor in the polling.]

    Finger in the dyke?

  191. guytaur

    “@kateausburn: J Roskam, IPA: “Only on the ABC two questions from Socialist Alternative.” Tony Jones: “And only on the ABC, the IPA to answer them.” #qanda”

  192. geoffrey

    why not activism. wtf has pyne been doing for years – interrupting upstaging. he is terrible in education – most of europe still has fee educ, and public campuses in america has much lower fees – private campuses in us have high proportion of free scholarships – he is trying to turn education into a business not a public enterprise or funded sector — also trying to dismantle public, by unhinging private and public at federal level and underfund states – he is contemptible in that role

  193. liyana

    And frankly its about time we all got our marching shoes out of mothballs…..

  194. geoffrey

    ummel
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:06 pm | PERMALINK
    I was happy to see those students protest on QandA and use there free speach. I’m also more then happy to see them pay more money for ‘Their’ degree’s.

    ——–right winger …did you have a funded education? most students have been suffering for years having to work too much while studying – go on tell me that’s a good thing, cos it aint

  195. Everything

    [rummel
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:06 pm | PERMALINK
    I was happy to see those students protest on QandA and use there free speach. I’m also more then happy to see them pay more money for ‘Their’ degree’s.]

    BINGO!

    …and I suspect they have assisted the government convince people (the voters/tax payers in particular) that the government is right and the students just think they are entitled.

  196. Bugler

    [ J Roskam, IPA: “Only on the ABC two questions from Socialist Alternative.”]

    I have no time for SA, but silencing them, as Mr IPA appears to be suggesting, is as stupid and extreme as much of SA

  197. guytaur

    Anna Burke shining tonight. For some reason Pyne letting her speak

  198. zoomster

    If anyone had said in September that, less than eight months later, Labor would be polling 53%, any one of us would have told them they were dreaming.

  199. mikehilliard

    liyana

    About time in my opinion as well.

  200. geoffrey

    verything
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:11 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:06 pm | PERMALINK
    I was happy to see those students protest on QandA and use there free speach. I’m also more then happy to see them pay more money for ‘Their’ degree’s.

    BINGO!

    …and I suspect they have assisted the government convince people (the voters/tax payers in part

    —–not another one. whatever happened to this list – i thought it was just a bit pink radical or something.

  201. Fulvio Sammut

    ‘Cept Bob, I suspect.

  202. Bugler

    Guytaur,

    Probably ran out of breath

  203. confessions

    [Anna Burke shining tonight. For some reason Pyne letting her speak]

    Maybe Pyne learned something from the last parliament. ABurke still has the ability to kick his arse if he f*cks up.

  204. geoffrey

    SA and green left are important parts of political spectrum – the dictatorial howard inspired right of course would try to stop free speech and make the left a dirty word – remember the recent past folk, 2005-2006, we began to watch what we said to each other for a month or two, surveillance and anti terrorism. i hate the libs

  205. zoidlord

    Oh dear, Rummel and Mod lib agree, situation normal.

  206. zoidlord

    Mathias Cormann ‏@MathiasCormann 1m

    Only reason our debt is lower than others was cos of strong position in 2007. Labor spent too much and put us on terrible trajectory. #qanda

    LOL :/

  207. roger bottomley

    34% PV for Labor is a tad disappointing.

  208. guytaur

    No one convinced about a budget crisis

  209. rummel

    working while doing a degree is the best education you can get… Life exprerence out side of the sandstone curtain.

  210. Fulvio Sammut

    Don’t mention the GFC!

  211. Fulvio Sammut

    Yep, work experience at Menzies House certainly broadens the mind.

  212. Bugler

    [working while doing a degree is the best education you can get… Life exprerence out side of the sandstone curtain.]

    Unlike when your generation went to Uni attendance is kept and there is a deliberate policy of Unis to prevent students from working if they’re studying full time so they can focus on study. As someone who has had some difficulty getting a job that fit with my Uni schedule, and has therefore had to defer to get at least something, your comment comes across as somewhat arrogant.

  213. mikehilliard

    rummel

    [working while doing a degree is the best education you can get]

    Yeah, even at 50 I still have nighmares about making the f-ing rent & whether I’ll be laid off again.

  214. Darn

    [gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Certainly not a flock to Labor in the polling.
    ]

    Take a look at Bludgertrack later in the week and you’ll see whether there’s been a strong move towards Labor or not. On these figures they would probably win 25+ seats.

  215. geoffrey

    rummel
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:20 pm | PERMALINK
    working while doing a degree is the best education you can get… Life exprerence out side of the sandstone curtain.

    —-how about 30 hours a week. have you taught students who coast through degrees, spend barely a full day a week behind sandstone doing arts? even other degrees. education fees and lack of student support are already killing higher ed.

  216. liyana

    These guys are clueless on science…

  217. ShowsOn

    […and I suspect they have assisted the government convince people (the voters/tax payers in particular) that the government is right and the students just think they are entitled.]
    Aren’t you forgetting that the vast majority of voters don’t watch Q&A?

    Oh, and aren’t you forgetting that if we want to reach the Utopian state that the Commission of Audit describes, we need more people with university degrees, so the government gets the money to ensure that Tony Abbott becomes THE INFRASTRUCTURE PRIME MINISTER.

  218. mari

    I would have likes to have gone full time, but was just before Whitlam, I studied by correspondence, worked part time and had a couple of kids but was fortunate enough to have a very supportive OH

  219. zoidlord

    @1794

    Except when you can’t get either, because you are forced out of the market.

  220. Fran Barlow

    Well there you go… Newspoll 53-47; Greens 14 +3

  221. ShowsOn

    By the way, the Commission of Audit says that students should start paying back their HECS/FEE-HELP debts when they reach the minimum wage.

    Which of course would send them below the minimum wage.

    But it isn’t like the Commission of Audit put much thought into their report.

  222. ShowsOn

    [Well there you go… Newspoll 53-47; Greens 14 +3]
    The greens are completely hopeless. They demand that we accept the science on climate change but refuse to accept the science that GMO are safe.

    They are complete idiots.

  223. zoidlord

    And of course you being liberals, forcing the pricing of education (which should be provided by the Goverment) is going through the roof like Housing prices.

    But no, you guys don’t give a crap.

  224. roger bottomley

    Fran, Milne and Di Natale doing well.

  225. liyana

    I would never have gone to uni if the fees were as high as they are now. Being from working class people, that much debt would have prevented my family from even encouraging me to think about going…

    I have a HECS debt but not at the current levels.

  226. guytaur

    “@SamCD01: The Leader of the House doesn’t know who the Deputy Speaker is. #qanda”

  227. guytaur

    “@danliveshere: And that hung parliament brought in Gonski, NBN, NDIS, carbon pricing. Yeah it obviously didn’t work #qanda #pynelogic”

  228. gloryconsequence

    Ha. Pyne just forgot who the deputy speaker is

  229. geoffrey

    HECS is pernicious non means tested and unlike gst constantly manipulable. students and artists should not be exploited economically. try the mines

    i didn’t see it but sounds like SA were right on target.

  230. guytaur

    “@Vic_Rollison: If Pyne has achieved one thing in his entire life (if), it will be to wake up a generation of students who weren’t interested in politics.”

  231. psyclaw

    Pyne asked “wjo is the deputy speaker?” and he doesn’t know.

    Anna Burke has to tell him.

    The Leader of the House did not know who his deputy speaker is!

    What a bunch of lazy rent seekers the Abbotteers are. Pyne did SFA re Education as shadow, (same level of interest and skill as Dutton’s energetic role as shadow Health) does less as Minister, and god knows who is running the House.

  232. gloryconsequence

    The SA were embarrassing

  233. geoffrey

    pyne wants to increase fees by 20% or something. have students pay 55% of costs where now they pay 45% … we already have a bifurcated dysfunctional secondary system thanks to howard’s choices. why can’t i like liberals even a little? a bit of respect? something?

  234. guytaur

    @jason_om: The banner in question #qanda http://t.co/EAYdfhxRCG

  235. guytaur

    Lateline interviewing Shepherd about donations

  236. ShowsOn

    SA are embarrassing, but Pyne is a dickhead.

    So over all it’s a nil all draw.

  237. mikehilliard

    guytaur @1815

    Great tweet, lets hope it continues because youth are not on this governments agenda.

  238. davidwh

    It’s the trust issue again. The paths in 2010/2011 and 2013/2014 are so eerily similar. Broken promise and loss of trust compounded by the taint of party corruption.

    Basically we are seeing a growing disconnect between the political elite and the rest of society.

    Things are going pretty much as I suggested they would. The failure of Rudd/Gillard have us a Liberal government that never properly learned the lessons of 2007 and had an adequate time in opposition re-building.

    It’s all pretty sobering.

  239. billie

    Great to see students are still revolting – bring back Paris 1968!

  240. WarrenPeace

    I find it hard to believe that Labors Primary vote is 34 .06 higher than the election. that will drag Bludgertracker down

  241. WarrenPeace

    I find it hard to believe that Labors Primary vote is 34, .06 higher than the election. that will drag Bludgertracker down

  242. J341983

    1825 – Not with the Greens primary where it is.

  243. mikehilliard

    david

    I see the failure as the electorates readiness to accept the Abbott government as an alternative.

  244. Tom Hawkins

    [SUPPORT for the Coalition has plunged to its lowest level in almost four years and voter dis­satisfaction with Tony Abbott has jumped to the highest point since he became Prime Minister as the government prepares to deliver across-the-board pain in its first budget.

    The latest Newspoll also shows Bill Shorten is just two points behind Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister, although support for Labor is flat and virtually unchanged since its election defeat.]

  245. Sir sustainable future

    Shows On – I’m a green and I agree with you about GMO. there is nothing inherently wrong with GM as a plant and animal breeding tool, but I disagree that it is always ‘safe’. there are several examples where failure to think things through have had serious negative effects. As with any technology it has potential to have negative effects if used wrongly. it also should be used as a tool within a holistic system that considers ecological and natural selection pressures. I think we need to use GM and use it well to increase food, fibre and fuel production and reduce environmental impacts.

    i also agree with you about SA – however, if the abc was truly balanced, they’d have an SA rep on QUANDA to balance the far right IPA and other loons they have on every week and seemingly on every abc show. the IPA tools suggestion that they fact that SA got into the studio showed ABC leftist bias was a breathtaking insight into how these loon think. it’s your right to be a bigot, but not to express a left wing opinion.

  246. sceptic

    guytaur @1819

    SA may have the passion, unfortunately not the sence to unfurl the banner the right way round

  247. gloryconsequence

    The Australian frontpage.
    [Coalition support plunges: Newspoll]

  248. zoidlord

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m

    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (-4) ALP 53 (+4) #auspol

    At least it’s going to the proper way.

  249. victoria

    Newspoll has Labor primary at 34%
    Reachtel at 40%
    Galaxy at 37%
    Morgan at 37%

  250. Sir sustainable future

    and on Q&A, was that the first time Bob Downe/ Mark Trevorrow has not been the most camp bloke in the room?

  251. J341983

    FTR – I don’t buy ALP primary at 34% …

  252. Jackol

    How on earth would Shepherd know what the Australian public voted for specifically?

  253. zoidlord

    @1827

    Where it’s at again is the minority government situation with Greens holding Balance of Power9?).

  254. Darn

    [WarrenPeace
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 10:52 pm | PERMALINK
    I find it hard to believe that Labors Primary vote is 34, .06 higher than the election. that will drag Bludgertracker down
    ]

    Why should we believe it IS really that low. If all the other polls are averaged out it is about 37 or 38, a big difference.

    Intuitively, with everything that has been going on, it beggars belief that it could still be as low as 34.

  255. victoria

    And Essential at 38%

  256. guytaur

    “@GrogsGamut: Shepherd has certainly got the talking points down pat #lateline”

  257. mikehilliard

    T Shepherd on Lateline is very unconvincing.

  258. liyana

    Well said davidwh- it just seems that politicians on both sides have no idea about living as an ordinary person in this society – the disconnect is incredible and could become dangerous..

    As for the SA – many of them will mellow and become fine upstanding members of the ALP in a few years-

    At least they are interested in politics…

  259. bryon

    Late in the day, but money for meets. The difference is that no-one would pay $22k to meet to Joe the member for North Sydney. They are paying to meet the Treasurer. An Officer of the Crown. So ignoring the moral corruption, any $ such an event brings in should go to Her Majesty’s revenue.

  260. davidwh

    Mike the real failure was that people came to believe they had no alternative. Only one party to blame for that though. Australia will pay a price for the insanity Labor inflicted upon itself from 2010 to 2013. Basically I think we are stuck with second best until both the majors get their acts together. It will take a while yet before that happens.

    Thank heavens governments don’t really run countries … Only governments 🙂

  261. imacca

    [ as the government prepares to deliver across-the-board pain in its first budget. ]

    People keep saying this, or words to that effect. I have yet to hear of any proposal that will inflict and “pain” on corporate Australia. Only the fuel excise thing which it looks like the “Friends of Jo” may have knocked that on the head as quickly as it came up.

  262. Sir sustainable future

    sheppard lateline makes grandpa simpson look switched on and articulate. he still cannot name any medical person consulted in their proposed gutting of medicare. di natale at the senate hearings was obviously the first doctor he’d spoken to. he’d now fucking up his minimum wage argument completely. what an evil ideological prick.

  263. Sir sustainable future

    sheppard on lateline makes grandpa simpson look switched on and articulate. he still cannot name any medical person consulted in their proposed gutting of medicare. di natale at the senate hearings was obviously the first doctor he’d spoken to. he’d now fucking up his minimum wage argument completely. what an evil ideological prick.

  264. ShowsOn

    [Shows On – I’m a green]
    I feel sorry for you.

  265. ShowsOn

    [sheppard on lateline makes grandpa simpson look switched on and articulate. he still cannot name any medical person consulted in their proposed gutting of medicare. di natale at the senate hearings was obviously the first doctor he’d spoken to. he’d now fucking up his minimum wage argument completely. what an evil ideological prick.]
    HOLY CRAP! Those senate hearings were 4 days ago! He hasn’t had a chance to do some home work since then?

    I guess he was only paid $85K for 6 months work, so I shouldn’t expect too much from him.

  266. guytaur

    “@greencate: .@albericie “Are you concerned there might be perception of conflict of interest due to govt privatising infrastructure projects? #lateline”

  267. guytaur

    “@smurray38: Tomorrow’s #NewsPoll has a 10-point fall in Coalition primary support among voters aged over 65; six-point fall for 50 to 64 years.”

  268. Sir sustainable future

    I love this. it takes them the whole article – first reporting that abbott is still ahead on PPM and that labor’s primary vote is flat before – through gritted teeth – it gives the 53-47 result. it mentions an increase in the greens vote without admitting the 14% which kills their ‘greens are gawn’ narrative.

    sheppard just fumbled his answer on being a LNP donor through dodgy funds. so impartial.

  269. Steve777

    I think it’s all part of the plan that young people be loaded up with debt at the start of their careers. People with debts make compliant workers. Ditto arranging the economy so that housing is just barely affordable if a couple mortgage the equivalent of one wage for all or most of their working lives. Then sell the home if one or both need aged care.

  270. sceptic

    guytaur

    Talking points down pat….

    Emma not capable of taking Sarah Ferguson approach & cut him off at the knees per Mathius Cormann…. He drivelled when under pressure.

    Friend at ABC news volunteered that Emma is the bluntest pencil in the box …. by far.

  271. Paddy O

    [FTR – I don’t buy ALP primary at 34% …]

    Yeah didn’t expect a 21% vote in WA senate either! Its highly plausible.

  272. Darn

    [victoria
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:02 pm | PERMALINK
    Newspoll has Labor primary at 34%
    Reachtel at 40%
    Galaxy at 37%
    Morgan at 37%
    ]

    Vic

    Based on those figures, plus 38% from Essential, it looks like this Newspoll could actually be an outlier. Now there’s a thought to chill the heart of every coalition supporter.

  273. victoria

    Darn

    Indeed.

  274. mikehilliard

    Ah, having dealt with the blithering of Shepherd I can go to bed with the words of Tim Buckley that coal is farked whispering sweet nothings in my ear.

    Night all.

  275. davidwh

    People hear that the retirement age is being lifted to 70 but those 50 today don’t realise they will be 85 when that happens if they are still alive.

  276. imacca

    [ Now there’s a thought to chill the heart of every coalition supporter. ]

    Good. And it will only get worse over the next week. Couldnt happen to a nicer lot.

  277. victoria

    davidwh

    No. Those 50 today will be 71, when this comes into effect in 2035

  278. zoidlord

    @1860

    Doesn’t make any difference davidwh.

    Bit like saying Fraudband will be delayed for an extra 4 years, but you will be 4 years older then.

  279. victoria

    [The federal budget will lift the retirement age to 70 by 2035, Treasurer Joe Hockey has announced, but he might not get the change through the Senate.

    Mr Hockey said he expected Labor to support the change but opposition families spokeswoman Jenny Macklin said it was a broken promise and Labor would not be supporting it.

    “The Prime Minister has no mandate to make changes to pensions in this year’s budget – regardless of when these measures commence,’’ she said.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/retirement_age_will_rise_to_by_wt1siYgydx8uUrNAE0Yu6N

    Night all

  280. pedant

    guytaur @ 1852: What to make of that? Over 65s won’t be affected by an increase in the pensionable age. Maybe they worry about means testing, but that probably won’t touch them. My guess is that the young people who will be affected by the age change still feel hale and hearty, and don’t really know what it is going to feel like to have to still work when you are starting to wear out; whereas those who have got to that age know.

  281. imacca

    [ but those 50 today don’t realise they will be 85 when that happens if they are still alive. ]

    So what. Nobody should bother to have an opinion if its not going to affect them personally??

    People 50 or so have no faith that the Govt wont change it again so that it does and no faith that they wont raise the age at which people can access their own money that’s in Super.

    Also, they can relate to the issue personally as they are often already looking at retirement planning. they assess it and think:

    “Fwark that for a joke. This lot on their Parliamentary scheme that gives them a pension from the moment they lose their seats expect someone else to keep working until 70?”

    Of course its obvious why. Doesn’t everybody have access to $85000 dollar publicly funded cheques for 5 months “work” in writing down right wing un-researched brain-farts and calling it an authoritative Audit Report??

    Lib supporters certainly seem to.

  282. Slav G

    davidwh@1823


    Things are going pretty much as I suggested they would. The failure of Rudd/Gillard have us a Liberal government that never properly learned the lessons of 2007 and had an adequate time in opposition re-building.

    Sorry David but that is, for lack of a better word, nonsense. So ALP is to blame that we had a lazy opposition for the last 6 years? So ALP is to blame L/NP though they can wing it and spend 100% of their energy on destroying the government and in turn confidence of the people in the economy, instead of allocating some of the time they had in opposition to think what could be done for the country if and when they get into power?

    People had a clear choice:
    1. believe the L/NP nonsense of governing chaos, budget crises, destruction of the towns by price on carbon, ‘need for surplus’ and the best was that Tony, that amazing Abbott chap, is their best friend.
    2. Continue with the government that has failed to sort their own issues, but have done better job at running the country than most other countries have done in the last 6 years, given the underlying circumstances. Hell, even if the circumstances were better, the way Aus economy performed was an excellent result.

    But yeah, blame the ALP for everything, things they deserve to be blamed on (their own stupidity wrt to their own party politics) and things they don’t deserve to be blamed on (L/NP being as lazy and vicious as they are).

    There is only one entity at fault here, and it is Australian public for believing nonsense that was thrown at them.

  283. Steve777

    Cost of concessions to superannuationis now running at over $32 billion p.a, i.e. About $2000 for each taxpayer. More than third of that goes to the top 5% of earners, who would never have qualified for the age pension.

    So there’s an easy $10 billion or so that can be returned to the budget bottom line in the next 3 years without impacting the elderly or students other than those who are well and truly capable of looking after themselves. That could easily be wound back over 10 years or so by a further $10 billion, which would wind the cost of concessions back towards the amount saved by means testing the pension.

  284. davidwh

    Slav Labor is certainly to blame for making it easy for a poor opposition with a suspect leader getting elected in September 2013. Labor is certainly to blame for making it easier for Abbott to remain LOTO after August 2010. Labor is certainly to blame for allowing themselves to indulge in internal warfare for three years while polling was showing that poor opposition with the poor leader was going to be elected.

    Unless you can convince me the Abbott government got elected on merit. Don’t see it personally and the result seems to back me up.

  285. Steve777

    Of course its obvious why. Doesn’t everybody have access to $85000 dollar publicly funded cheques for 5 months “work” in writing down right wing un-researched brain-farts and calling it an authoritative Audit Report??

    We could have saved $2.5 million if the Government had employed a couple of unpaid interns (I am sure some Young Liberals would have eagerly volunteered) to research the IPA website and interview a few Corporate CEOs. Or maybe simply asked the attendees at one if these $22,000 lunches what they wanted and taken dictation.

  286. Fran Barlow

    On the question of election funding …

    I see caps on spending during election campaigns as being the key tool here. It doesn’t matter how much people donate if you can stop them spending beyond a certain limit.

    It’s pointed out of course that the major parties can do an end run around spending limits by allowing ‘super pacs’ to advertise on their behalf. One response to that might be to require all agencies or organisations running ostensibly political advertising to disclose fully all of their funding sources in near real time to the AEC, and for these disclosures to be posted on the web. Penalties would attach to inaccurate disclosures, with serious fines and disqualification imposed on officers of such organisations.

    Where the organisation could be shown to be effectively a related organisation to a
    political party the spending would be accounted as part of that party’s spending cap. Tests would include but not be limited to common donors, common officers, shared resources and so forth.

  287. Steve777

    Abbott was elected by:
    1. those who saw their interests closely aligned with those of big business. This included not just the wealthy and senior executives but those who aspired to be
    2. traditional conservatives who are attracted to the social conservatism expressed by Abbott and other Coalition figures
    3. Many who seemed to think they were voting for a group of technocrats who would be more competent than the then Government – they bought the meme of ‘government in chaos’, ‘let’s put adults in charge’ pushed by the Opposition, ably supported by the media and, yes, Labor and the then Government.
    4. Racist bogans who bought into the moral panic over boats. Only a couple of percentage points at the margins but all Australian elections are close. In 2013 just under 7 in 15 voters did not want a change.
    5. many others who accepted that we needed to tighten up, fix the budget and so forth, but thought that the changes would only affect public servants, unions, dole recipients, politically correct academics and other bludgers, but not nice respectable people like themselves.

    There is a fair bit of overlaps between the groups, especially 4/5 and 3/5.

    So maybe there’s a lot of buyers’ remorse about.

    Anyway, it is now near the witching hour, so good night all.

  288. scorpio

    Yoo Hoo ban the Bomb!

  289. scorpio

    Blimey!

    I haven’t been here for a while and couldn’t think that my presence back here would suddenly shut down the blog!

  290. scorpio

    BTW, good day to Crikey and every one that I know from way back when!

  291. scorpio

    Looks like my presence has shut down the blog, so good night everybody!

  292. Player One

    guytaur@1793

    No one convinced about a budget crisis

    The “budget crisis” is that Hockey has to try and come up with one that adds up, and his calculator only goes up to eleventy.

  293. Player One

    Oops! Wrong thread! How come this thread is still open?