Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.

This is the latest in a polling avalanche which has followed the interruption of Easter and Anzac Day, to which Essential Research is still to be added tomorrow. Three other polls published over the past two days have produced strikingly similar results on the primary vote, from which Newspoll differs in having Labor lower and the Greens higher:

• Galaxy, for the first time adding an online panel component to its live-interview phone polling to produce an enlarged sample of 1391, has the Labor lead at 52-48, with primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 6% for Palmer United.

• A ReachTEL poll conducted on Saturday, also from a larger-than-usual sample of 4016, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, with primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition, 39.6% for Labor, 11.2% for the Greens and 6.0% for Palmer United.

• Morgan’s multi-mode face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted every weekend but compiled fortnightly, has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 according to the conventional two-party preferred method that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election, increasing to 55-45 when preferences were allocated by the respondent. The primary votes are 37.5% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 12% for the Greens and 5.5% for Palmer United.

UPDATE: And now Essential Research comes in entirely unchanged on last week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United. Questions on the deficit tax show the importance of wording in these situations – just as carbon tax questions got a more favourable response when the rationale for them was laid out, inquiry about “a temporary ‘deficit’ tax on high and middle income earners aimed at bringing the budget back to surplus” has support and opposition tied at 34%. However, 48% favour the proposition that “introducing a new ‘deficit’ tax would be a broken promise by the Abbott Government” versus 33% for “it is more important to reduce the deficit than stick to pre-election promises”.

Other findings have “management of the Australian economy” all but unchanged since a year ago, with a total good rating of 40% (up one) and total bad of 31% (down one), but with results by party support having changed beyond recognition; Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen to manage the economy by 33% to 27%; Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26); 23% very concerned about job losses, 34% somewhat concerned and 29% not at all concerned; 77% believing the gap between rich and poor to have increased over the last 10 years, with only 3% for decreased; 29% thinking their own financial situation good versus 26% for poor; “the cost of living” rated by far the economic issue of most concern (56%, with unemployment in second place on 11%).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

703 Responses

Comments page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
  1. “@sarahgerathy: #ICAC advised report into alleged Liberal party slush funds would be handed down b4 christmas. That’s less than 3 months b4 state election”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 10:14 am

  2. @Kate_McClymont: The cache of new material received by #icac implicates Mike Gallacher in “serious funding irregularities.”

    Oh dear.

    by confessions on May 6, 2014 at 10:14 am

  3. Guytaur

    On QandA Pyne still seemed childish and by contrast Anna Bourke very adult.

    Agree totally re Pine but not so much re Bourke. Her response to the physicist who asked about stability of research funding was just embarrassing: “I don’t really get the science…I have an arts degree….I love my arts degree…”

    by Jolyon Wagg on May 6, 2014 at 10:24 am

  4. Someone asked about the drop in the rural vote for the Coalition. I suspect the scales are falling from the eyes of lots of country people now under heavy threat from coal seam gas and other mining type activities which are clearly identified with Coalition pollies. Several ex-Nat pollies are now in top positions in various mining companies, a fact that took some time to register in the slower moving rural consciousness.

    by pritu on May 6, 2014 at 10:25 am

  5. jw

    I saw that as an adult admitting she doesn’t know all. With a bit of humour thrown in.

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 10:31 am

  6. Good presser by Shorten

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 10:32 am

  7. “@ABCNews24: .@billshortenmp: Tony Abbott does not have a case for breaking his promises or increasing taxes #auspol #Budget2014”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 10:32 am

  8. Pritu

    I imagine the asset test on the pension scared the pants of a lot of rural voters as it means selling the farm etc.

    I think the pension at 70 also would upset a lot of them too. Loss of medicare too would be a big issue in the country. Cash is always tight in a rural area – asset rich cash poor.

    by daretotread on May 6, 2014 at 10:33 am

  9. “@political_alert: Victorian Treasurer has announced a cut to payroll tax will be included in the State Budget today: http://t.co/gWaEtAqMgM #auspol”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 10:37 am

  10. “@Kate_McClymont: Sinodinos’s brief says #icac”substantially effecting my client’s life” and has alleged serious breaches of the law. He wants it resolved now”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 10:42 am

  11. Guytaur

    I saw that as an adult admitting she doesn’t know all. With a bit of humour thrown in.

    No problem at all with the bit where she admitted to not knowing all. It was the gratuitous and perhaps slightly defensive “I love my arts degree” that grated with me.

    by Jolyon Wagg on May 6, 2014 at 10:43 am

  12. JW

    Fair enough. I saw that as humour and humour is a matter of perception.

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 10:46 am

  13. Seems to me the increased Greens vote means the punters may already in the transit lounge, headed out of Liberal Land.

    If so, I wonder if disaffected Lib voters, some now parking their choices in Greensville, will give their preferences back to the Libs or not?

    Then again, maybe they’re out at the PUPpy Farm trying to pick something that doesn’t have fleas.

    by Bushfire Bill on May 6, 2014 at 10:50 am

  14. That’s less than 3 months b4 state election

    There will be a few torrents under the bridge between now and then

    by shellbell on May 6, 2014 at 10:50 am

  15. Guytaur

    Agreed. Maybe my sense of humour is lacking.

    by Jolyon Wagg on May 6, 2014 at 10:51 am

  16. “@MWhitbourn: Sinodinos’ involvement is limited to body called Free Enterprise Foundation, allegedly used by NSW Libs to “wash” illegal donations #ICAC”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 10:52 am

  17. BB:

    If so, I wonder if disaffected Lib voters, some now parking their choices in Greensville, will give their preferences back to the Libs or not?

    That’s one possibility, certainly. But blue –> green does seem odd.

    Then again, the Australian Democrats used to capture a lot of disaffected Lib voters. So maybe many soft or small ‘l’ Libs are indeed parking their vote in the Greens.

    by kakuru on May 6, 2014 at 10:54 am

  18. JW
    I agree that the joke was forced, a bit lame and went on for far too long.

    I was enjoying watching Tony struggle to deal with the protests – apparently in JonesWorld all protests must happen in a small area where no-one is inconvenienced and they can be safely ignored. After all, that’s how democracy works. Would have been great TV if he had engaged with the students and allowed them to be ripped to shreds, or stand on their own two feet against the panel; for at least a small period of time .

    However, that would have required giving up a smidgen of control, something Tony isn’t great at.

    by tielec on May 6, 2014 at 10:56 am

  19. jw

    If you worried watch some Monty Python Yes Minister or something :grin:

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 10:56 am

  20. Re K17@123: just saw John Hewson on ABC24 pushing the need to reform super tax concessions. He also mention a figure of ‘tax transfers’ in Australia (i.e tax concessions if one sort or another) being 8% of GDP (about $120 billion p.a.), about double the level for comparable countries. That was also linked from the previous thread. There’s more than enough room to fix the budget there without attacking students, the disabled, the sick, the aged or the unemployed.

    So, go through those 8% of “tax transfers”, ( some of which will get kept because they make sense i would think, ) and you could probably find 2-3% of GDP’s worth that could be gotten rid of over the mid term.

    Will be interesting to see if the Fibs do tackle Superannuation tax matters before the next election? I agree that they are the “low hanging fruit”, and all the
    ALP has to do is to keep the policy they went to the last election with of 15% on over $100k to make a difference. Can the Fibs afford to NOT look at this??

    by imacca on May 6, 2014 at 10:59 am

  21. 1:30 AEST Malcolm Turnbull on BBC World TV Hardtalk Programme

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 10:59 am

  22. Bushfire
    I assume the first step fro angry rusted on conservatives will be PUP or other minor parties/independents. A few will go to the Greens

    I suspect that what we are seeing is a BIG shift from the coalition (say 4%)which is parked 2-3% with PUP et al, say 0.5-1% to the greens and the balance 1-2% with Labor. However we are also seeing a bit (large) drift of younger voters to the greens. This means that The ALP primary vote seems static but TPP is shifting up.

    by daretotread on May 6, 2014 at 11:00 am

  23. I thought Anna’s “I love my Arts degree” was in defensive response to a shout from the audience. There was a lot of catcalling going on at the time.

    by lizzie on May 6, 2014 at 11:00 am

  24. “@Kate_McClymont: Sinodinos’s brief says #icac”substantially effecting my client’s life” and has alleged serious breaches of the law. He wants it resolved now”

    Atrie shold have considered that there might be an effect on his life, when he took on the “Free Lunch” job at $200k for a few hours’ work. Sadly, never a deep thinker, the only effect our Greek friend saw was the easy money.

    He MUST have known there was something iffy about the AWH gig. No-one hands out that kind of moolah to you just because they think you’re a good bloke.

    He’s probably still wondering why Tony doesn’t call him anymore. Didn’t he have Tony’s “utmost respect”?

    The Libs put patsies like Sinodinos – expendable, easily flattered – into superficially plum jobs so they can take the fall, if the shit hits the fan.

    Arthur turned copping flak on Howard’s behalf into an art form, while Howard stayed a step or two back, doing his “Father Of The Nation” routine.

    And Arthur STILL doesn’t get it. He’s never coming back. The Libs may be a bit worried that he’ll turn state’s evidence if he twigs how he’s been set-up, but there’s little risk of that.

    Arthur has a trophy wife, a social ladder to climb and a big monthly rental to fork out on his Vaucluse pad. Odds are he’ll stay quiet and cop it, like he was always meant to.

    One thing’s for sure, anyone who gets close to Abbott eventually gets king-hit by him. It’s what he does.

    by Bushfire Bill on May 6, 2014 at 11:02 am

  25. Liberal Senator Arthur Sinodinos's barrister objected to the adjournment application.

    Robert Newlinds, SC, said that the senator wanted this resolved as soon as possible as a "serious allegation of criminal conduct" has been made in the hearing "and we are very concerned it is hanging over his head".

    Mr Newlinds said he did not want Senator Sinodinos's good name and reputation hanging in the balance over the coming months.

    "This is an allegation of specific criminal conduct," said Mr Newlinds in his submission opposing the adjournment.

    In his opening address Mr Watson said that Senator Sinodinos had been involved in the Free Enterprise Foundation which Mr Watson said was used as a "means of washing and re-channelling donations made by prohibited donors."

    "He is anxious for the inquiry to continue so that he can get on with his life."

    Commissioner Latham said that the inquiry was an investigation and the ICAC did not know where the evidence would lead.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-suspended-as-mike-gallacher-investigated-for-serious-electoral-funding-irregularities-20140506-zr59n.html#ixzz30tRwC7Zw

    by lizzie on May 6, 2014 at 11:08 am

  26. “@Kate_McClymont: “Apparently Ms McClymont is some kind of clairvoyant” says Hartcher’s brief complaining SMH foreshadowed this inquiry last year #icac”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 11:12 am

  27. Bring out the Budget then have a review. This all seems arse-up to me.

    Federal Social Services Minister Kevin Andrews has delayed the release of a review of Australia’s welfare system - the interim report not expected now until after the May 13 Federal Budget.

    The report was expected to be released before the Budget however a spokesperson for the Minister said Minister Andrews had asked Patrick McClure, who leads the review team, to take Budget decisions into consideration as part of his review of the welfare system.

    “Mr Andrews said it was important that the Review Reference Group has the opportunity to review its interim report to ensure the basis of its advice remains relevant to Budget decisions,” the spokesperson said.

    “The interim McClure Report will now not be released until after the Budget on May 13.”

    Before the delay’s announcement, many community groups had expressed a willingness for greater consultation on the review.

    Victorian Council of Social Service (VCOSS) Chief Executive Officer Emma King said that with the Commission of Audit and the Federal Budget all taking place concurrently, the delay offered a chance for appropriate consultation with groups that regularly deal with people who are vulnerable and disadvantaged.

    - See more at: http://www.probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2014/05/welfare-review-gets-more-time#sthash.L5R6RZZh.dpuf

    by lizzie on May 6, 2014 at 11:12 am

  28. “@latikambourke: NSW Premier Mike Baird promotes Stuart Ayres as Minister for Police and Matthew Mason-Cox into Cabinet.”

    “@political_alert: Greens Leader Christine Milne will today announce she will push for a vote on the bill for a national #ICAC on Thursday next week #auspol”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 11:14 am

  29. “@Kate_McClymont: “Apparently Ms McClymont is some kind of clairvoyant” says Hartcher’s brief complaining SMH foreshadowed this inquiry last year #icac”

    Things are getting nasty between barristers down at ICAC

    by shellbell on May 6, 2014 at 11:15 am

  30. “Mr Andrews said it was important that the Review Reference Group has the opportunity to review its interim report to ensure the basis of its advice remains relevant to Budget decisions,” the spokesperson said.

    In other words, they’re re-writing the Budget.

    Only 7 days to go and these turkeys are STILL making shit up.

    by Bushfire Bill on May 6, 2014 at 11:16 am

  31. “@Kate_McClymont: Since I am clairvoyant I predict Mr Hensken’s client Chris Hartcher is, as the Fin Review would say, fukt #afr #ICAC @smh”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 11:17 am

  32. So, why do they want Sinodinos out of there before all the evidence is in?

    The initial focus on Sinodinos was on his AWH involvement. The very kindest thing that can be said about that is that Sinodinos was a greedy and incompetent fool.

    But, as more evidence comes in of slush funds, money laundering and influence peddling, the focus will shift to Sinodinos’ role as Liberal Party Treasurer.

    Not to worry, when all those fishy bucks stopped with a person of the very highest integrity they were as clean as the driven snow.

    Methinks Sergeant Schulz will get an even bigger workout before Christmas.

    by Boerwar on May 6, 2014 at 11:17 am

  33. bushfire – or lib voters are moving to labor and labor voters are moving to the greens! That is probably worse for the libs.

    by KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN on May 6, 2014 at 11:17 am

  34. Minerals Council : coal is a “financially sound and morally responsible investment”. Oh, yeah?

    The Australian coal industry’s controversial claims that coal is needed to lift billions out of poverty have received the most significant set back yet, with the release of a new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

    The report, based on detailed financial modelling, reveals that for India to import coal from Australia for power generation is ‘prohibitively expensive’, and double the wholesale price of India’s electricity.

    “The report further breaks the myth that coal can alleviate poverty in India. Adding to the already disastrous track record of coal in killing thousands of lives and livelihoods, the economic reasons against coal imports from Australia are now irrefutable” said 350.org South Asia Coordinator Chaitanya Kumar.

    “It comes as no surprise then that big coal lead by companies like Adani and Reliance are pumping obscene amounts of money in the ongoing elections in India to get right wing and pro industry leader Narendra Modi to power. His election will open the floodgates for greater crony capitalism in the country. “

    Economic modelling in the report shows that renewable energy, including wind and solar would be significantly cheaper and effective at lifting hundreds of millions in India out of energy poverty. The cost of electricity generation from solar in India has fallen 65% in the last 3 years alone.

    The report findings deal a serious blow to the claims by the Minerals Council of Australia, BHP Billiton, Adani, GVK Hancock and others that Australian coal is a financially sound and morally responsible investment.

    http://350.org.au/coal-industry-poverty-claims-found-to-be-on-thin-ground/

    by lizzie on May 6, 2014 at 11:18 am

  35. “@Kate_McClymont: “Apparently Ms McClymont is some kind of clairvoyant” says Hartcher’s brief complaining SMH foreshadowed this inquiry last year #icac”

    How the worm turns. An inquiry designed by the Liberals to peak just before the Federal election in 2013, seems likely to peak again just before the state election in 2015.

    There is a God.

    I didn’t see anyone from the Lib side complaining when McClymont was getting stuck in to Craig Thomson and Eddie Obeid. Or did I miss something?

    by Bushfire Bill on May 6, 2014 at 11:18 am

  36. So, did Hockey’s talks with lawyers, perhaps in relation to the headline ‘Treasurer for sale’, come to anything?

    by Boerwar on May 6, 2014 at 11:20 am

  37. Everyone’s favourite Pseph Bob Ellis explains NewsPoll shenanigans

    It shows, of course, Labor on 56.5 and Abbott losing forty-eight or fifty seats. But it isn’t presented that way.

    ‘Based on preference flow at September, 2013,’ it says. But that was when Palmer voters, for instance, thought Abbott might keep his word. Morgan shows, each fortnight, that this ‘preference flow’ has gone up, by 1 percent, to Labor.

    ’6 percent uncommitted and 1 percent refused.’ Three and a half of these seven would go to Labor.

    ‘Better Prime Minister Abbott 40, 38 percent Shorten, 22 percent uncommitted.’ That would shake down, probably, as Shorten 52, Abbott 48.

    ’1134 interviews with voters.’ Yeah, that’s voters with landlines, an almost extinct technology. Most of them are over eighty. 1 more percent to Labor.

    ‘Margin of error 3 percent.’ No doubt, no doubt. 1.5 more percent to Labor.

    Plus the 53 percent they’re admitting to.

    56.5 percent. Wipeout.

    It would be nice if they were honest about it.

    But they’re Newspoll, from News Limited, and they work for Murdoch.

    Why should they be.

    by sprocket_ on May 6, 2014 at 11:21 am

  38. I used to have a lot of time for Ellis. Not any more.

    by kakuru on May 6, 2014 at 11:23 am

  39. The link to Bob http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/05/06/todays-newspoll-6/

    by sprocket_ on May 6, 2014 at 11:23 am

  40. s

    That is art trying to imitate life, and failing.

    Ellis is often funnier when he does not intend so to be than when he does.

    There is double-counting galore in his failed back-of-the-envelope imitation of our esteemed Bilbo.

    by Boerwar on May 6, 2014 at 11:24 am

  41. sprocket

    Ellis to gain credibility should have noted Reachtel respondent allocated and the fact its multi nodal.

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 11:25 am

  42. Ellis to gain credibility

    Ellis does not want credibility.

    by shellbell on May 6, 2014 at 11:29 am

  43. Troy Buswell presser now 24

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 11:32 am

  44. Nick of Melbourne
    Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 11:42 pm | PERMALINK
    I haven’t commented in months. Been lurkin. Hello all.

    Imagine what the polls might look like if the ALP were effective opposition.

    I’m pessimistic – the Libs are literally crapping upon the Australian public from a great height and a six point deficit is the worst it’s getting? 28 months out from an election. Definitely not alarm bell territory yet for the Coalition.

    That’s a reasonable take.

    It’s really not surprising to see this terrible Govts polling plunge and the ALP’s polling stagnant.

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 11:32 am

  45. Troy The Boy Buswell is on ABC24 live and now – a presser.

    He looks sober enough.

    by jeffemu on May 6, 2014 at 11:33 am

  46. http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-to-be-suspended-as-mike-gallacher-investigated-for-serious-electoral-funding-irregularities-20140506-zr59n.html

    This is getting very interesting!

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 11:33 am

  47. http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-to-be-suspended-as-mike-gallacher-investigated-for-serious-electoral-funding-irregularities-20140506-zr59n.html

    This is getting very interesting!

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 11:33 am

  48. Does Christopher Pyne ever stop talking?

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 11:34 am

  49. @joeobrien24: Troy Buswell says he's been diagnosed with bi-polar depression. On @abcnews24 now.

    by sprocket_ on May 6, 2014 at 11:35 am

  50. “@joeobrien24: Troy Buswell says he’s been diagnosed with bi-polar depression. On @abcnews24 now.”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 11:35 am

« | »