Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.

This is the latest in a polling avalanche which has followed the interruption of Easter and Anzac Day, to which Essential Research is still to be added tomorrow. Three other polls published over the past two days have produced strikingly similar results on the primary vote, from which Newspoll differs in having Labor lower and the Greens higher:

• Galaxy, for the first time adding an online panel component to its live-interview phone polling to produce an enlarged sample of 1391, has the Labor lead at 52-48, with primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 6% for Palmer United.

• A ReachTEL poll conducted on Saturday, also from a larger-than-usual sample of 4016, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, with primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition, 39.6% for Labor, 11.2% for the Greens and 6.0% for Palmer United.

• Morgan’s multi-mode face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted every weekend but compiled fortnightly, has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 according to the conventional two-party preferred method that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election, increasing to 55-45 when preferences were allocated by the respondent. The primary votes are 37.5% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 12% for the Greens and 5.5% for Palmer United.

UPDATE: And now Essential Research comes in entirely unchanged on last week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United. Questions on the deficit tax show the importance of wording in these situations – just as carbon tax questions got a more favourable response when the rationale for them was laid out, inquiry about “a temporary ‘deficit’ tax on high and middle income earners aimed at bringing the budget back to surplus” has support and opposition tied at 34%. However, 48% favour the proposition that “introducing a new ‘deficit’ tax would be a broken promise by the Abbott Government” versus 33% for “it is more important to reduce the deficit than stick to pre-election promises”.

Other findings have “management of the Australian economy” all but unchanged since a year ago, with a total good rating of 40% (up one) and total bad of 31% (down one), but with results by party support having changed beyond recognition; Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen to manage the economy by 33% to 27%; Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26); 23% very concerned about job losses, 34% somewhat concerned and 29% not at all concerned; 77% believing the gap between rich and poor to have increased over the last 10 years, with only 3% for decreased; 29% thinking their own financial situation good versus 26% for poor; “the cost of living” rated by far the economic issue of most concern (56%, with unemployment in second place on 11%).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

703 Responses

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  1. Troys body language says it all to me.

    by jeffemu on May 6, 2014 at 11:36 am

  2. Bi-polar is a difficult condition to manage.

    It would explain some of Buswells ‘erratic’ behaviour I guess.

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 11:36 am

  3. Bi polar disorder is easily managed by taking regular medication.

    by confessions on May 6, 2014 at 11:37 am

  4. I used to have a lot of time for Ellis. Not any more.

    Very entertaining though.

    by Tom Hawkins on May 6, 2014 at 11:40 am

  5. Confessions.

    I think I have an idea of the medication Troy took before his car collided with five parked cars and a stationary gate.

    by jeffemu on May 6, 2014 at 11:41 am

  6. Bi polar disorder is easily managed by taking regular medication.

    That will be his justification for returning to the ministry and acting as though nothing has happened

    by Tom Hawkins on May 6, 2014 at 11:41 am

  7. At Independent Australia

    we understand a rift has developed between the two most important departments – DFAT and Defence – with the Prime Minister’s office.
    The claim that unilateral and unsustainable decisions are being taken, making any form of reparation of the ever worsening situation almost impossible.

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/abbott-exacerbates-indonesian-mess-by-last-minute-no-show,6448

    by billie on May 6, 2014 at 11:42 am

  8. confessions #202

    Taking the medication ‘regularly’ is the difficult thing for sufferers.

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 11:45 am

  9. I don’t think depression should force people out of jobs (WA would have been better of if Gallop had stayed even if he needed lots of time off) but equally I hate it being used to cover appalling behaviour. All too convenient.

    by WeWantPaul on May 6, 2014 at 11:47 am

  10. Right. So if Buswell can’t manage his problems with medication, then he shouldn’t be in Parliament.

    by zoomster on May 6, 2014 at 11:50 am

  11. Taking the medication ‘regularly’ is the difficult thing for sufferers.

    Not for Troy – he’s obviously been self-medicating a bit too regularly of late.

    by Player One on May 6, 2014 at 11:50 am

  12. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/06/mike-gallacher-implicated-in-alleged-serious-electoral-funding-irregularities?CMP=soc_568

    Things really hotting up at the ICAC.

    Something tells me a few canaries might just start singing quite loudly over the next few months…

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 11:51 am

  13. Rex:

    Well I have a friend who suffers bipolar disorder. She controls her condition by taking regular medication. In the years we’ve been friends I’ve never known her to sniff chairs, snap bra straps, dry hump business leaders at parties or drive recklessly causing multiple damage to other people’s property.

    by confessions on May 6, 2014 at 11:52 am

  14. zoomster.

    I’d agree with that.

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 11:52 am

  15. confessions

    Great assessment!

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 11:55 am

  16. confessions #212.

    Some people handle things better than others.

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 11:55 am

  17. Did Buswell admit to having a problems with alcohol?

    by Boerwar on May 6, 2014 at 11:55 am

  18. guytaur

    “@joeobrien24: Troy Buswell says he’s been diagnosed with bi-polar depression. On @abcnews24 now.”

    I can only assume that the early warning signs of bi-polar include chair sniffing, bra snapping and other school camp hijinx

    by Peter of Marino on May 6, 2014 at 11:56 am

  19. Rex

    If you can’t handle your job because of a psychiatric issue you should take leave or resign.

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 11:57 am

  20. It would explain some of Buswells ‘erratic’ behaviour I guess.

    Such as chair sniffing?

    by ShowsOn on May 6, 2014 at 11:58 am

  21. If I was treasurer of WA in a Barnett government I would get depressed too.

    by Roger Miller on May 6, 2014 at 11:59 am

  22. MTBW #218

    Particularly a job primarily dealing with people.

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 11:59 am

  23. ABC Fact Check @ABCFactCheck · 3h

    New #factcheck: has the Coalition doubled the deficit? http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-06/has-the-government-doubled-the-budget-deficit/5423392

    “It remains to be seen how the two sets of forecasts stand the test of time, but as of today, Mr Bowen’s claim checks out.”

    So Mathias was misleading the public – he should resign.

    Mathias Cormann ‏@MathiasCormann 14h

    Labor’s excessive spending and unsustainable spending trajectory beyond forward estimates would weaken our country if not addressed. #qanda

    Mathias Cormann ‏@MathiasCormann 13h

    Europe/US already had high debt in ’07. We didn’t. After 6 yrs of Labor, our spending growth trajectory among steepest in the world. #qanda

    Mathias Cormann ‏@MathiasCormann 13h

    Definitely not. “@BernardKeane: @gramsci_oz @MathiasCormann I imagine he’s not getting much time for meal breaks week out from Budget…”

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 12:00 pm

  24. Rex

    Yes! Particularly when you are responsible to the citizens of your State.

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 12:04 pm

  25. Have to roll my eyes at the conga-line of conservative commentators howling down Abbotts new debt tax claiming a reductionin consumer spending – didn’t hear them say that when they slugged consumers with a GST.

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 12:04 pm

  26. confessions:

    Well I have a friend who suffers bipolar disorder. She controls her condition by taking regular medication. In the years we’ve been friends I’ve never known her to sniff chairs, snap bra straps, dry hump business leaders at parties or drive recklessly causing multiple damage to other people’s property.

    I also have a friend with bipolar order. I’ve never seen or heard of her display aforementioned behavior either. She’s a very smart and very sweet lady, and she’s currently doing a PhD.

    by kakuru on May 6, 2014 at 12:05 pm

  27. Have to roll my eyes at the conga-line of conservative commentators howling down Abbotts new debt tax claiming a reductionin consumer spending – didn’t hear them say that when they slugged consumers with a GST.

    It was quite amusing on this point… a couple of days ago both the Retailers Association and Gerry Harvey bemoaned the Deficit Tax, and then both said it wouldn’t affect sales much at all.

    So what were they complaining about?

    by Bushfire Bill on May 6, 2014 at 12:06 pm

  28. [@CanberraInsider: Letter from Gough Whitlam asking Lance Barnard to serve as acting Prime Minister, during Whitlam's 1973 trip to China http://t.co/MJwiA69LCZ

    by sprocket_ on May 6, 2014 at 12:07 pm

  29. kakuru:

    There are a lot of unfortunate assumptions and stereotypes made about people who experience mental illness. The reality is that for the majority, their condition is easily managed by taking medication.

    by confessions on May 6, 2014 at 12:08 pm

  30. Political Alert ‏@political_alert 54m
    Greens Leader Christine Milne will today announce she will push for a vote on the bill for a national #ICAC on Thursday next week #auspol

    Sensible and pragmatic.

    Will the 2 major parties support it or will they continue to protect their ‘interests’.

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 12:10 pm

  31. I would like to see an independent assessment of Buswell – or at least a second opinion – of his condition. Misdiagnosed sociopath? Or maybe he has both bipolar and a psychopathic personality disorder?

    Opens a can of worms of how much the public deserve to know about ‘their’ politicians. But with his record, perhaps he has to forgo that privacy if he wants to stay in parliament.

    by Simon Katich on May 6, 2014 at 12:11 pm

  32. Will the 2 major parties support it or will they continue to protect their ‘interests’.

    Shorten should get out in front of Abbott on this and support it.

    by ShowsOn on May 6, 2014 at 12:12 pm

  33. Retweeted by Adam Bandt
    dave ‏@dj_was__here 11m

    @leerhiannon @AdamBandt My son borrowed $58,000 for his course, 2011-2013 double diploma film production!

    So how much would that be, if Coalition Party increased Uni fees?

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 12:13 pm

  34. or lib voters are moving to labor and labor voters are moving to the greens! That is probably worse for the libs.

    Definitely worse, as the ALP will still get the preferences of those that move to the Greens. :)

    Still, a long way to go unless Abbott does a DD over something and with this kind of polling i cant see it happening.

    by imacca on May 6, 2014 at 12:13 pm

  35. Simon Katich #230

    I’d be surprised if Buswell is preselected again.

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 12:13 pm

  36. Geez, Lachlan Murdoch’s got a hide, being Chairman of News Corp an’ all… http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2014/05/06/1226906/936298-fd0e5648-d4a0-11e3-a788-f9855f7e436a.jpg

    Tha’s a shot of him arriving to speak to his mate, James, AFTER he’d bought the photos.

    by Bushfire Bill on May 6, 2014 at 12:14 pm

  37. It’s official: Earth’s atmosphere is now in uncharted territory, at least since human beings evolved hundreds of thousands of years ago...
    Every single daily carbon dioxide measurement in April 2014 was above 400 parts per million. That hasn’t happened in nearly a million years, and perhaps much longer.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/05/01/mauna_loa_atmosphere_measurements_carbon_dioxide_levels_above_400_ppm_throughout.html

    by lizzie on May 6, 2014 at 12:17 pm

  38. I’d be surprised if Buswell is preselected again.

    I’d be surprised if he isn’t. He has a big margin and I’ll bet he knows where EVERY-BODIES skeletons are buried.

    by imacca on May 6, 2014 at 12:17 pm

  39. Speaking of illness and parliament….

    Bob Such attends SA Parliament opening despite medical leave for brain tumour treatment

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-06/bob-such-brain-tumour-turns-up-sa-parliament/5433340

    by Simon Katich on May 6, 2014 at 12:17 pm

  40. Bushfire Bill #226

    Dr John Hewson was a member of the conga-line, if you can believe that… :lol:

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 12:18 pm

  41. http://www.zdnet.com/nbn-co-cannot-offer-fttb-in-tpg-serviced-buildings-morrow-7000029094/

    1. Infrastructure competition cannot exist in FTTB Rollout.

    2. Coalition Party MTM Policy looses profit when competing FTTB builds, builds.

    “Technical reality meant that NBN Co would have to resort to using FTTP in MDUs where TPG had already installed its FTTB infrastructure, Morrow said.”

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 12:20 pm

  42. http://www.zdnet.com/apartment-dwellers-to-get-fttp-by-july-as-nbn-co-fights-tpg-7000029091/

    What happened to underserved area’s that were suppose to get Internet connections?

    Now it’s about beating TPG to the punch?

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 12:25 pm

  43. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-navy-turns-back-asylum-seeker-boat-to-indonesia-after-loading-three-extra-people-20140506-zr55k.html

    Oh dear!

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 12:27 pm

  44. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-navy-turns-back-asylum-seeker-boat-to-indonesia-after-loading-three-extra-people-20140506-zr55k.html

    Oh dear!

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 12:27 pm

  45. This confirms my suspicion that the ‘wealth tax’ is a sop to make up for the fact that the CoA recommendations are entirely about withdrawing services from many who need them to benefit those who do not. I think the government must have realised – ‘shit, there’s nothing here to hurt the wealthy – we’d better announce a wealth tax’. by setting the ‘wealth tax’ at a low $80K they can be assured it will be howled down. Abbott will say he listened and drop the tax. Meanwhile the CoA punitive and regressive measures get largely ignored in the tabloid msm – the herald sun is just not telling its readers about proposed changes that will hurt them worse than the carbon ‘tax’ ever did – and without the overcompensation in tax breaks by raising the tax free threshold that the carbon price had. it was no coincidence the wealth tax was announced before the CoA report to distract the masses.

    Costello lecturing anybody about financial management is a joke – it is his tax cuts to the wealthy and middle class welfare that gives us a revenue problem today. imagine if they’d invested the boom revenues in education, industry and infrastucture and kept more of them for the rainy day that the GFC was.

    It is also an insight into his trickle down economy mindset – the empirical evidence suggests that wealth distribution leads to a healthier economy and society, but this is an anathema to him. (he would call it ‘socialist’ and sit back smugly thinking that that has won the argument – no need to think or debate further because he called it ‘socialist’. I saw him do this too many times). It also shows that he equates ‘more consumption’ with the only indicator of economic health (he would not care about social health – because ‘there is no society’ in the outer isles of la la land where he lives).

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-06/costello-says-debt-levy-plan-has-no-economic-benefit/5432472

    by Sir sustainable future on May 6, 2014 at 12:29 pm

  46. “@political_alert: NSW Premier Mike Baird will hold a media conference on changes to his Cabinet at 1.30pm #nswpol”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 12:30 pm

  47. So Coalition Party having their own little Cable Wars scenario.

    But NBN Co vs TPG, the only difference is that NBN Co wasting tax payers money.

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 12:32 pm

  48. NSW Newspoll must be soon – it is bi-monthly and it has been two months since the last one (58-42)

    by shellbell on May 6, 2014 at 12:32 pm

  49. “@Kate_McClymont: Now that he knows #icac adjourning til Aug, Mike Baird confident no more casualties for the moment. Announcing cabinet reshuffle at 1.30pm”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 12:33 pm

  50. The reality is that for the majority, their condition is easily managed by taking medication.

    With respect, this doesn’t seem to display a lot of knowledge about or experience of mental illness.

    Medication is one fairly blunt tool used to attempt to deal with problems which are frequently not well understood, let alone readily ‘cured’ or ‘managed’.

    That said, being bipolar is not an excuse for Buswell’s antics, and I hate it when people have these moments of honesty when it’s super convenient to them.

    by Patrick Bateman on May 6, 2014 at 12:34 pm

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