Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.

This is the latest in a polling avalanche which has followed the interruption of Easter and Anzac Day, to which Essential Research is still to be added tomorrow. Three other polls published over the past two days have produced strikingly similar results on the primary vote, from which Newspoll differs in having Labor lower and the Greens higher:

• Galaxy, for the first time adding an online panel component to its live-interview phone polling to produce an enlarged sample of 1391, has the Labor lead at 52-48, with primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 6% for Palmer United.

• A ReachTEL poll conducted on Saturday, also from a larger-than-usual sample of 4016, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, with primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition, 39.6% for Labor, 11.2% for the Greens and 6.0% for Palmer United.

• Morgan’s multi-mode face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted every weekend but compiled fortnightly, has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 according to the conventional two-party preferred method that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election, increasing to 55-45 when preferences were allocated by the respondent. The primary votes are 37.5% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 12% for the Greens and 5.5% for Palmer United.

UPDATE: And now Essential Research comes in entirely unchanged on last week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United. Questions on the deficit tax show the importance of wording in these situations – just as carbon tax questions got a more favourable response when the rationale for them was laid out, inquiry about “a temporary ‘deficit’ tax on high and middle income earners aimed at bringing the budget back to surplus” has support and opposition tied at 34%. However, 48% favour the proposition that “introducing a new ‘deficit’ tax would be a broken promise by the Abbott Government” versus 33% for “it is more important to reduce the deficit than stick to pre-election promises”.

Other findings have “management of the Australian economy” all but unchanged since a year ago, with a total good rating of 40% (up one) and total bad of 31% (down one), but with results by party support having changed beyond recognition; Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen to manage the economy by 33% to 27%; Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26); 23% very concerned about job losses, 34% somewhat concerned and 29% not at all concerned; 77% believing the gap between rich and poor to have increased over the last 10 years, with only 3% for decreased; 29% thinking their own financial situation good versus 26% for poor; “the cost of living” rated by far the economic issue of most concern (56%, with unemployment in second place on 11%).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

703 Responses

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  1. “@Thought4rce: “People-smugglers” or as they are now sometimes known: “The Australian Navy”……… #auspol #asylumseekers”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 12:34 pm

  2. Naphine has shown his true colours.

    Reduces payroll tax for the wealthy while at the same time increasing car registration.

    Make no mistake, Naphine is a true blue liberal. It is in his DNA to look after the better off and make the average punter pay for it.

    by PeeBee on May 6, 2014 at 12:35 pm

  3. MTBW – according to Australia’s philosophy on such things, wouldn’t Indonesia (a) be entitled to seize our navy boats and burn them, and (b) be entitled to tow this boat back and ditch it on our north coast at a random location?

    by Patrick Bateman on May 6, 2014 at 12:35 pm

  4. Patrick Bateman @ 249

    You are spot on!

    Once the mentally ill person starts to feel better they go off their medication. Then of course they fall into an ongoing cycle of taking it again then going off it when they feel better.

    It is a vicious cycle.

    Many are poor lost souls who cannot settle and wander the streets day and night.

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 12:40 pm

  5. MTBW – and of course much of this medication either has horrendous side effects, or causes further symptoms, or creates psychological or physical dependence.

    And a lot of it medical science knows works most of the time, but doesn’t actually know how or why it works most of the time.

    by Patrick Bateman on May 6, 2014 at 12:42 pm

  6. In recent years Bipolar Disorder and other mental illnesses have been conceptualised as a spectrum of disorders / degrees of disorder. Autism is a another example.

    Some psychiatrists now include Bipolar Disorder in the Schizophrenia Disorder Spectrum.

    Prior to the now common “spectrum” diagnosis only severe or obvious cases tended to be identified and diagnosed.

    So kids diagnosed with Autism 20 years ago exhibited really autistic behaviours. Communication and affective behaviour could be easily seen by relatives, acquaintances or lay observers to be aberrant.

    So too with Bipolar. Patients demonstrated manifest signs and symptoms …. severe manic episodes, often totally psychotic, and cyclical deep depression. Their behaviour could easily be recognised by lay persons as quite atypical.

    Nowadays many more people are diagnosed as having a spectrum disorder, especially vis a vis Bipolar Disorder, and Autism. Their symptoms are relatively less extreme and often not obvious to the untrained eye.

    There is a view that it is not too hard to get a spectrum diagnosis, especially if you know a shonk medico who spends their career not treating patients, but specialise in de-diagnosing (acting on behalf of insurance companies) or quick-diagnosing (acting at the behest of defence lawyers).

    Both groups are held in extremely poor regard by medicos who actually treat patients. Often they use diagnostic tools/methods of low repute and without researched validity or reliability.

    With my formal training in psych and the law I have on occasions had great pleasure in seeing through and tearing down shonk diagnoses.

    One wonders who diagnosed Buswell, and more importantly on what basis he sought a diagnosis, and who suggested that he seek diagnosis.

    It would be interesting to know the actual symptoms/behaviours on which the diagnosis was based.

    Hopefully the symptoms included more than drinking a lot of grog, snapping bras, sniffing seats and PCA driving.

    by psyclaw on May 6, 2014 at 12:42 pm

  7. Patrick Bateman @ 252

    Yes and wouldn’t Tony just love that!

    What goes around comes around!

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 12:46 pm

  8. BB

    Tha’s a shot of him arriving to speak to his mate, James, AFTER he’d bought the photos.

    I assume Packer thought thumping Murdoch in front of a whole lot of witnesses was not a good idea.

    by CTar1 on May 6, 2014 at 12:48 pm

  9. Guytaur

    I thought Anna Bourke was atrocious last night on Q&A.

    Honestly, the Pain bagging Labor debt and deficit presented the perfect opportunity for Anna to sling it back in his face, state Labor’s handling of the GFC and AAA credit rating.

    But nothing!

    Because Labor doesn’t ferociously defend their record they enable the Coalition to paint negative perceptions.

    by Dee on May 6, 2014 at 12:52 pm

  10. surprised to see something actually interesting happened on q&a

    by p m z on May 6, 2014 at 12:57 pm

  11. Thousands of people with Bipolar are very well managed by modern medications.

    As far as psychotrophic drugs go, those used in Bipolar are relatively benign, assuming that the treating medico is up to date.

    And unlike some mental illnesses, people with Bipolar tend not to exhibit distorted thought, and develop good insight into the illness and treatment.

    One severe sufferer I know quite well has been diagnosed 25 years, had 3 major psychotic episodes in early years as medication was being sorted out, but for more than 15 years has responded well to medications, and has a professional career.

    There are exceptions of course.

    by psyclaw on May 6, 2014 at 12:59 pm

  12. Dee

    I had a different view to you – Christopher Pyne just never shut up. He hogged the whole show while Jones allowed it.

    None of Mark Trevorrow the young women sitting next to Jones or Anna Bourke got a real look in.

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 1:01 pm

  13. Dee

    Pyne vs. Anna Bourke was not a contest of equals, IMO. He is such a practiced liar and fabricator. Her speech is always hesitant.

    by lizzie on May 6, 2014 at 1:01 pm

  14. psyclaw – if you’re referring to my comments, I was responding to the statement that the majority of “mental illness” is “easily managed by taking medication”, not bipolar specifically.

    by Patrick Bateman on May 6, 2014 at 1:02 pm

  15. People still watch qanda?

    by Patrick Bateman on May 6, 2014 at 1:02 pm

  16. I would love to have seen more of Mark Trevorrow, not as comedian, but as intelligent commentator.

    by lizzie on May 6, 2014 at 1:03 pm

  17. MTBW

    Anna was given the opportunity on several occasions to stick it to the Pain but she didn’t.

    by Dee on May 6, 2014 at 1:04 pm

  18. For anyone who missed it, QandA is now being repeated. I’m hiding in the kitchen while OH watches it. Unfortunately I can hear Pyne-echoes from here.

    by lizzie on May 6, 2014 at 1:06 pm

  19. The most controversial thing about Q and A was surely Pyne’s idiocy about Lou Reed. What a fricking moron.

    by Patrick Bateman on May 6, 2014 at 1:07 pm

  20. psyclaw, i found this googling….

    “The Bipolar’s swollen self-esteem, overstated self-confidence, obvious grandiosity, and delusional fantasies are akin to the narcissist’s….Both types of patients purport to give advice, carry out an assignment, accomplish a mission, or embark on an enterprise for which they are uniquely unqualified and lack the talents, skills, knowledge, or experience required.”

    Ok, sounds like most politicians ;-). Then….

    “But the bipolar’s bombast is far more delusional than the narcissist’s. Ideas of reference and magical thinking are common and, in this sense, the bipolar is closer to the schizotypal than to the narcissistic.”

    Would medication correct this behaviour or merely reduce the more serious effects of depression, harm and selfharm?

    by Simon Katich on May 6, 2014 at 1:10 pm

  21. Whenever Pyne is on, someone should ask him about Education, like ask him a question, normally asked to School Kids.

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 1:10 pm

  22. Dee & MTBW

    its a conundrum, to stand up and debate toe to toe with the likes of Pyne or let him blabber his spin hoping he comes across as unbelievable and annoying to the populace as he does to most on PB.

    by Simon Katich on May 6, 2014 at 1:14 pm

  23. zoid

    Pyne was disgraceful and I agree with lizzie on Trevorrow he is as smart as.

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 1:16 pm

  24. zoid

    Pyne was disgraceful and I agree with lizzie on Trevorrow he is as smart as.

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 1:16 pm

  25. # change “populace” to “swing voter”.

    My concern is some of the better debaters in the ALP ranks are gone or being quiet and those left cont quite match it with Pyne – and if you cant match it with him then best to let him babble.

    by Simon Katich on May 6, 2014 at 1:19 pm

  26. Crikey’s cartoon is worth printing for your fridge

    by billie on May 6, 2014 at 1:20 pm

  27. Greg Smith making a fool of himself. You wouldn’t think he would have the hide given the trouble the NSW Libs are in.

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 1:21 pm

  28. Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

    Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three).

    This is entirely consistent with the Senate vote in WA. The LNP primary vote is experiencing deep attrition. The electoral system will deliver these votes to Labor as long as its PV also holds up in the face of competition from the Greens and PUP.

    However, the field is obviously highly contestable. Labor absolutely cannot be complacent about this. They must fight with all they have to oppose the changes now being wrought by the LNP. They must do this not only because it is in Labor’s political interest, but because the changes being pursued by the LNP are utterly wrong in economic, social and ethical terms.

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 1:21 pm

  29. I too, would have liked to hear more from Trevorrow who wanted to take the debt and deficit challenge up to Pyne. :)

    by Dee on May 6, 2014 at 1:22 pm

  30. billie, my kids will have Toad nightmares if I put that on the fridge.

    by Simon Katich on May 6, 2014 at 1:23 pm

  31. Time for a bit of controversy

    Before increasing university fees can someone improve the quality of the undergraduate degrees.

    For many years i have heard the debate between new graduates and employers which goes something like

    -Employer posts job
    -Graduate applies highlighting 4 HD 4 D rest C
    -Employer knocks back graduate
    -Graduate requests feedback
    -Employer replies we are seeking experience
    -Graduate but you should be willing to train

    Our universities focus too much on close book exams and MQC tests with overly relaxed cultures which place no requirement on students to mourn up and stay the entire lecture or to actually pay attention during lectures.

    Universities need to and some do realise that many of their students think the score is all that matters and that they will be guaranteed a job at the conclusion.

    The IBL program should be made compulsory for any student that isn’t already in part-time employment.

    There needs to be greater focus on assignments and essays which challenge the student to investigate, problem solve and create as they would in the real world.

    Also students shouldn’t be allowed to jump from Bachelor to Masters degree without at least five years work experience hence the reason why many mid to late 20 years olds are hit with but you are overqualified.

    The irony is when a person does gain a job the first thing that happens is that they are sent off too training.

    Thus what employers are really saying is University might give you good general knowledge but there is not firm evidence that you can function in the workplace.

    Based on my experience the degrees are over priced, that is not to say they are worthless or pointless but the price doesn’t match what is provided.

    And the buck stops with the minister.

    Yes Pyne that is you! please stop looking like Bambi

    by mexicanbeemer on May 6, 2014 at 1:24 pm

  32. mourn = turn up

    by mexicanbeemer on May 6, 2014 at 1:24 pm

  33. Anyone got the Essential Media result yet?

    by spur212 on May 6, 2014 at 1:24 pm

  34. Greg Smith

    “I’m amazed that the people of Beecroft and Cheltenham would be so rude

    Read more:

    by shellbell on May 6, 2014 at 1:26 pm

  35. Anyone got the Essential Media result yet?

    I get mine around Wednesday breakfast. I must not have signed up to the platinum membership.

    by shellbell on May 6, 2014 at 1:27 pm

  36. 227

    [@CanberraInsider: Letter from Gough Whitlam asking Lance Barnard to serve as acting Prime Minister, during Whitlam’s 1973 trip to China

    A thing of beauty!

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 1:27 pm

  37. Shellbell

    Comes out on Tuesdays at midday usually.

    I know the debt tax has Support 34%, Oppose 34% but I want to know the rest. I assume the voting intention will be steady

    by spur212 on May 6, 2014 at 1:30 pm

  38. SK

    “Would medication correct this behaviour or merely reduce the more serious effects of depression, harm and selfharm?”

    That question is pretty hard …. many variables.

    The normal human “mood” is mad up of highs and lows. We all go “up” and we all go “down”, usually only to “normal” heights and lows.

    Bipolar sufferers experience very high “highs” (peaks) and very low “lows” (troughs).

    The medication tries to reduce the height of the peaks and the depth of the troughs to allow the person to experience a more “normal” mood ranges.

    If you’re knowledgeable about diagrams of sound waves, it is the amplitude of the wave (distance from bottom of trough to top of peak) that is extreme for Bipolar sufferers, and which the medication reduces.

    Note that like on heart monitoring waves, the wave shape is never flat, and if it is flat re the heart or a “mood wave”, then this is not normal and something is very amiss (often fatally amiss in the case of heart waves)

    by psyclaw on May 6, 2014 at 1:30 pm

  39. thanks psyclaw.

    by Simon Katich on May 6, 2014 at 1:33 pm

  40. “@ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: NSW Premier @MikeBairdMP speaking on his cabinet reshuffle #nswpol #ICAC”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 1:35 pm

  41. The ICAC inquiry will be suspended for about three months because of further information has come to hand evidently it resolves around Mike Gallagher.

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 1:36 pm

  42. mb

    your example doesn’t prove that there’s anything wrong with undergraduate degrees. If anything, it suggests there’s something wrong with employers.

    And I don’t see how your suggested solution helps, either.

    by zoomster on May 6, 2014 at 1:37 pm

  43. Mexican
    The problem with assignments and essays is that too many students ghost write and or plagiarise. Assignment only assessment is NOT compatible with large universities and situations where the tutor marking the essay does not know the student well OR where there is some one who actively “helps” kids with assignments, be it for money or because of some misplaced notion about helping (usually because some well intentioned teacher etc helps a kid because they are in some way disadvantaged)

    by daretotread on May 6, 2014 at 1:40 pm

  44. “which has come to hand” and “revolves” not “resolves”.

    ABC 1:30pm News.

    by MTBW on May 6, 2014 at 1:40 pm

  45. anyone listening to Hardtalk? where can i get it?

    by Simon Katich on May 6, 2014 at 1:42 pm

  46. SK

    Pay TV BBC World. Foxtel and Fetch I know of

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 1:43 pm

  47. OR where there is some one who actively “helps” kids with assignments,

    LoL! A Student in one of my lab classes last week handed in a report where they had photocopied the drawings from another students report. So awesomely blatant that we all had a good laugh and then their tutor gave them 0 for it. They also get a fairly stern talking too. Once is worth no marks, twice is getting actionable in other ways.

    by imacca on May 6, 2014 at 1:44 pm

  48. I taught into a very successful IBL program which produced graduates that were employed even during the worst economic downturns, usually by the companies they had completed placements with, so may I make a few comments

    IBL programs can turn out graduates with skills that are immediately employable

    IBL graduates often got employed in the bleeding edge technology because they were cheap (essentially free, not engaged on other work) and they have gone to establish their pre-eminence in those fields

    IBL programs can take a lot of effort to organise. Monash BIT program took in 100+ first years, if the student could find a placement they would do IBL in second year. Contrast that with Swinburne that took in 40 students, organised two 6 month placements for all of them.

    Its becoming apparent that there are not enough employers willing to participate in IBL programs for the numbers of students enrolled and we hear about

    -Victoria graduating 5000+ teachers annually more than teaching positions open

    -Nationally more medical students in training than hospital residency positions

    -In the early 2000s there were 12000 IT graduates annually competing for 9000 vacancies for new as well as experienced personnel

    We need to move the national discourse back to the idea of full employment rather than continually slashing jobs. When I started working in 1974 public servant mandarins used to hang around the Canberra Club bragging about how many graduates they had employed this year

    by billie on May 6, 2014 at 1:45 pm

  49. Bipolar Disorder can be very serious if you aren’t well controlled. If Buswell responds well and is monitored closely, he could return to work but his kind of job would put a lot of extra pressure on him and he’d probably be better off doing something else.

    by Diogenes on May 6, 2014 at 1:45 pm

  50. guytaur, Thanks, I will wait for the podcast then (is it still replayed on NewsRadio?).

    by Simon Katich on May 6, 2014 at 1:46 pm

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