Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.

This is the latest in a polling avalanche which has followed the interruption of Easter and Anzac Day, to which Essential Research is still to be added tomorrow. Three other polls published over the past two days have produced strikingly similar results on the primary vote, from which Newspoll differs in having Labor lower and the Greens higher:

• Galaxy, for the first time adding an online panel component to its live-interview phone polling to produce an enlarged sample of 1391, has the Labor lead at 52-48, with primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 6% for Palmer United.

• A ReachTEL poll conducted on Saturday, also from a larger-than-usual sample of 4016, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, with primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition, 39.6% for Labor, 11.2% for the Greens and 6.0% for Palmer United.

• Morgan’s multi-mode face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted every weekend but compiled fortnightly, has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 according to the conventional two-party preferred method that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election, increasing to 55-45 when preferences were allocated by the respondent. The primary votes are 37.5% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 12% for the Greens and 5.5% for Palmer United.

UPDATE: And now Essential Research comes in entirely unchanged on last week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United. Questions on the deficit tax show the importance of wording in these situations – just as carbon tax questions got a more favourable response when the rationale for them was laid out, inquiry about “a temporary ‘deficit’ tax on high and middle income earners aimed at bringing the budget back to surplus” has support and opposition tied at 34%. However, 48% favour the proposition that “introducing a new ‘deficit’ tax would be a broken promise by the Abbott Government” versus 33% for “it is more important to reduce the deficit than stick to pre-election promises”.

Other findings have “management of the Australian economy” all but unchanged since a year ago, with a total good rating of 40% (up one) and total bad of 31% (down one), but with results by party support having changed beyond recognition; Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen to manage the economy by 33% to 27%; Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26); 23% very concerned about job losses, 34% somewhat concerned and 29% not at all concerned; 77% believing the gap between rich and poor to have increased over the last 10 years, with only 3% for decreased; 29% thinking their own financial situation good versus 26% for poor; “the cost of living” rated by far the economic issue of most concern (56%, with unemployment in second place on 11%).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

703 Responses

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  1. Zoomster

    Before going to University i would have agreed the problem was the employers but since attending university i have come to see a whole range of issues as mentioned above.

    If a student is focused they can take the concepts and develop their knowledge base but it seems many students are going though the motions paying more attention to facebook than the lecture.

    Reading forums such as Whirlpool provides a small insight into the mind set of some students.

    The IBL is an excellent program. essays and assignments do provide the opportunity to research and learn, not sure the same can be said for a closed book exam which one doesn’t receive feedback on unless requesting it.

    by mexicanbeemer on May 6, 2014 at 1:49 pm

  2. SK

    Just turned on. Turnbull neing given hard questions over climate change

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 1:49 pm

  3. Essential Media: Steady on 2PP and voting intention (although Others/Independents are +2)

    by spur212 on May 6, 2014 at 1:49 pm

  4. MH370 and Angus Houston is getting like Moby Dick and Captain Ahab.

    Asked whether he would personally commit to continue leading the co-ordination effort over the next eight to 12 months, the Air Chief Marshal confirmed he would.

    “I’ll keep going as long as I’m required to do so,” he said, insisting he could “manage” with his other commitments.

    by Diogenes on May 6, 2014 at 1:50 pm

  5. dtt

    The problem with assignments and essays is that too many students ghost write and or plagiarise..

    There are huge penalties for this. One of the first things a University assessor does with an essay is feed lumps of it through search engines to look for evidence of plagiarism.

    As for being actively helped with assignments, that’s scarcely anything new. Students have always accessed extra help – via tutoring – for as long as Universities have existed. Which is, of course, exactly what people in the real world do when they hit a problem they can’t solve, too.

    by zoomster on May 6, 2014 at 1:51 pm

  6. daretotread

    True i appreciate there are limitations which is why there is a place for MCQ and closed book exams.

    It is very difficult to get the balance right.

    by mexicanbeemer on May 6, 2014 at 1:52 pm

  7. mb

    The IBL is an excellent program. essays and assignments do provide the opportunity to research and learn, not sure the same can be said for a closed book exam which one doesn’t receive feedback on unless requesting it.

    Sounds very like both the Victorian VCE and the university course my son is currently doing.

    As for students paying more attention to socialising than assignments, that’s been a future of student life for centuries! (I wish my son would do more socialising and spend less time studying…)

    by zoomster on May 6, 2014 at 1:53 pm

  8. Now this is something I DO know a thing or two about:

    Former cabinet minister Greg Smith told a fiery public meeting on in his electorate Monday night that he expects the state’s remaining electricity assets to be sold off to pay for another rail line through the city.

    At the meeting, organised to oppose plans to limit the north-west rail link to single-deck carriages with fewer seats, Mr Smith also complained of being threatened when a member of the audience tried to take his microphone from him, and appeared to mock residents of Beecroft and Cheltenham for being less polite than residents of Epping.

    "I'm amazed that the people of Beecroft and Cheltenham would be so rude."

    The state government’s plans for the north-west rail link have produced a hostile response from people in northern suburbs whose train services will be degraded for the new line.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/community-meeting-derailed-as-greg-smith-chastises-constituents-20140506-zr5dg.html#ixzz30u0a7LhS

    When Labor was in power, back in 2008, and intending to build the NW Rail Link, there were lots of community meetings then, too.

    Greg Smith, then Opposition Shadow Attorney-General, was invited to a big one (standing room only) at the Epping Primary School hall.

    He arrived an hour and a half late, apologizing becaue he’d been held up in Parliament “dealing with some pedophile issues”. He started big-noting himself about his performance in parliament, but the audience’s impatience was palpable.

    To groans from the peanut gallery, who urged “Can you get to the point?” Smith launched into the Labor government, describing it as riding roughshod over the citizens of… yes… Beecroft, Cheltenham and Epping… and vowing that under a Liberal government the rail link would be built in “full consultation with the local stakeholders”, or not at all. That was his solemn pledge.

    He paid particular attention to Labor’s plan to reduce the scope of the project from heavy rail (read: ordinary trains) to a “metro” style system, which meant that passengers had to change trains at Epping for the trip into the City, or to Chatswood (as the “metro” trains terminated at Epping).

    He told the audience how stupid it was, etc. etc.

    What the Liberals are doing now is pretty-well exactly what Labor planned to do, in fine detail.

    I was concerned particularly with the possibility – indeed the certainty (as I was advised by a mole inside the Transport Infrastructure Development Corporation, the government entity building the system) that a “Vent shaft” was going to be built smack dab in the middle of a 13 hectare piece of bushland called “Chilwirth Reserve”, abutting the M2 as you drive out of the Epping tunnel.

    Living very near to this, indeed on the border of it, I was aghast that they would knock down two acres of bush to built this “vent shaft”. It wasn’t just a “shaft”. It was more like a full station, with only ticket machines missing. It was to be used for fire hydrant boosting, pumping, maintenance on the tract and as an emergency evacuation facility for up to two thousand people.

    The community consultations under Labor (and it seems under the Liberals) were a joke. Local people were told to just draw “sketches” of their alternative proposals, not expertise required, TIDC had all the gurus in these matters.

    When a lot of people did just that, TIDC dismissed these ideas as being “obviously amateur” and not worth considering. Mine wasn’t done that way. I used a retured railway engineer to produce immaculate drawings, but it got lumped into the trash can with the other less salubrious efforts anyway.

    The project was canned in October 2008. On the day the final “community response” report (i.e. a dismissive whitewash) was due to be released, they announced instead that due to the GFC they’d run out of money. The report was never released, despite FOI requests. It was classed as “Cabinet confidential”.

    However, my source, who I can say now was the General Manager of the project and who hated what they were being forced to do, told me that the originally planned location for the vent shaft had been moved to next door to Cheltenham Oval, specifically gobbling up the netball courts and local parking, plus an acre of further bushland, right on the edge of the M2.

    Well, at least it was a long way away from my place, so I ceased to be concerned about it. We’d gotten it moved by sheer will power and persistence to a location with easier access.

    I did inform the local Civic Trust of the new location, but they pooh-poohed my information. THEY had met with the minister, and HE never mentioned Cheltenham Oval. What did I, just a local newbie slob, know?

    Come the election, and the good burghers of Cheltenham and Beecroft trotted off to vote Liberal. In their area, this meant voting for The Man himself: Greg Smith.

    Cheltenham Oval, once a quiet little backwater in very attractive bushland, is exactly where the “Vent shaft” is being built. The locals are up in arms – again.

    The mob they voted for slavishly went and wrecked their peace and quiet with jackhammers, excavators and glaring 24-hour xenon floodlights for the next two years. After that, machinery will rumble away, 24/7, kinda destroying the amenity of the once exclusive suburb, or at least the south-western end of it.

    And of course, Greg Smith is now the champion of the rail link, especially the “metro” idea, thinks local residents are rude and aggressive and is generally batting left-handed compared to his previous right-handed stance on the subject.

    He’s wonderfully ambidextrous, is Greg.

    As for the local Cheltenhamites, they got what they voted for. Elections DO have consequences.

    They should have listened to me.

    by Bushfire Bill on May 6, 2014 at 1:54 pm

  9. Re PPL: What do you call a man who sticks with a policy that he can’t afford, that hardly anyone likes and that will not deliver the outcome he expected? Principled? Obdurate? Stupid?

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/abbott-has-dug-himself-into-a-hole-over-paid-parental-leave-20140505-zr4r4.html#ixzz30u7oJxHf

    I’ll go with ‘stupid’.

    by Steve777 on May 6, 2014 at 1:56 pm

  10. spur212
    Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2014 at 1:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Essential Media: Steady on 2PP and voting intention (although Others/Independents are +2)

    So it seems respondents in most if not all polling are rejecting the 2 major parties.

    There is hope…

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 1:56 pm

  11. Billie

    True, which is why employers do need to take their role seriously, both Swinburne and Monash do put a great deal of effort in and should be rewarded for doing so.

    As you write the employers do need to be more willing and responsive after all they are the ones that want graduates with experience.

    by mexicanbeemer on May 6, 2014 at 1:56 pm

  12. Bipolar Disorder can be very serious if you aren’t well controlled. If Buswell responds well and is monitored closely, he could return to work but his kind of job would put a lot of extra pressure on him and he’d probably be better off doing something else.

    As buswell’s most significant symptom is smashing his ministerial car into parked vehicles late at night – the prescription of not having a ministerial car or a license should cure that symptom. Will give him and any staff be still has more time to tackle the drinking symptom and any other symptoms.

    by WeWantPaul on May 6, 2014 at 1:56 pm

  13. Did Essential change its panel (100K?) after the election?

    by Simon Katich on May 6, 2014 at 1:57 pm

  14. Essential: Deficit Tax 34 Support / 34 Oppose – tie.

    Cost of Living rises to 56% as the most issue, followed by Unemployment at 11%

    Budget? 6%.

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 1:57 pm

  15. Zoomster

    And to be fair students ought to experience some of the student life

    by mexicanbeemer on May 6, 2014 at 1:58 pm

  16. @beneltham: Why is Joe Hockey suing Fairfax over its fundraising story? What does he have to hide? https://t.co/6zlFZnhuEi

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 2:00 pm

  17. essential has shifted one point to Labor – so this is in effect a 2 point shift because averaged over two weeks

    it is 40, 38, 10, 5 (PUP) 6
    52/48 to Labor

    by daretotread on May 6, 2014 at 2:01 pm

  18. billie

    Victoria graduating 5000+ teachers annually more than teaching positions open

    I’d be surprised if there were 5000 teacher training positions in Victorian Universities, let alone 5000 excess graduates per year.

    Nationally more medical students in training than hospital residency positions..

    Yes, because we need to train more medical students than we have been (poor forward planning by the Howard government, who were warned of the doctor shortage and then warned about the problem of increasing enrollments in Medicine without planning for placements).

    The placement problem is being overcome, but it’s expensive.

    It is, however, generating some potentially positive outcomes, with students being placed in rural hospitals.

    There has always been a lag between university students graduating and their finding a position. Stats show that the first six months or so sees undergraduates facing high unemployment – but over their lifetime, they have less unemployment and better paying jobs than non graduates.

    You can understand employers being reluctant to employ someone – often at a relatively high starting salary – who has no history of full time employment.

    by zoomster on May 6, 2014 at 2:01 pm

  19. Just 29% of Australians would rate their own current financial situation as ‘good’. 26% would rate it as poor, with the largest proportion rating their current financial situation as ‘fair’ (45%).

    Over three-quarters (77%) of Australians believe that the gap between the rich and everyone else has increased. Just 3% believe it has decreased.

    Just over half (57%) of Australians are concerned that they, or a member of their immediate family will lose their jobs in the next year or so.

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 2:02 pm

  20. Ah, have found the cause of the confusion – every year, there are about 5000 graduate teachers registered with the Victorian Institute of Teaching.

    Someone has obviously decided that every one of these is surplus to requirements, which is obviously absurd.

    by zoomster on May 6, 2014 at 2:04 pm

  21. I am always amused by the hysteria surrounding plagarism. After all we howl down original thoughts all the time. So the trick is to rewrite the conventional wisdom in a quirky enough style to not be thought to be plagarising.

    If you have a good memory you can reproduce arguements word perfect after reading or hearing them once

    All a university degree is, is a filter, which employers apply to the candidates so they only invest training and provide essential experience to the “people like us”

    A few graduates directly apply the material they learnt in their studies but many more graduates apply their trained minds and maturity to their role in employment

    by billie on May 6, 2014 at 2:06 pm

  22. Zoomie you are a long way from Melbourne and you have never counted the attendees at the VIT organised CRT forums, so look after your farm

    by billie on May 6, 2014 at 2:07 pm

  23. Sorry I was reading last week’s essential

    I am inclined to think there is something wrong with the essential methodology. it is TOO static. I would have expected some shift this week and there is nothing, nix, nil. Did they in fact poll at all?????

    Mind you there are some obvious rounding issues. Last week they reported 99% and this week 101%, the missing two percept all going to “Other”

    by daretotread on May 6, 2014 at 2:14 pm

  24. zoomie who do you think is going to tell YOU that we churn out more teachers than there are classroom positions

    1. the universities who are training them – if they tell they lose staff

    2. the principals who can chose which ever teacher they like, they can choose thin ones, those who went to Catholic high schools, those who have travelled overseas. The principals who get a salary bonus on staff saving they make

    3. the VIT who collect registration fees from all teachers and fees for working with children checks as well as running an empire to oversee teacher professional training is completed etc

    4. the teachers in the system who will find it harder to secure a position or keep it

    by billie on May 6, 2014 at 2:17 pm

  25. Bille

    What rot

    The idea against p[is so you can be sure the kid actually understood the material written – that is the point. Any half wit can cut and past from an internet source but the idea is to use sources in such a way that you understand them

    A graduate is expected to be able to start a job and read a report and understand it, to be able to read several different reports and spot the differences and judge which is most likely to be accurate and why. That is why they are at university. If they cannot do this then they should not have gone to uni in the first place.

    by daretotread on May 6, 2014 at 2:20 pm

  26. daretotread

    Agree with your #322

    Everybody else [Newspoll, ReachTEL. Morgan, Nielsen, from memory, Galaxy] has the Greens in the teens – 11%-14%.
    Not ER.
    Every body else has ALP 2PP rising significantly in the last month [I think that's right]
    Not ER.

    Stick in the muds.

    by fredex on May 6, 2014 at 2:22 pm

  27. “@Kate_McClymont: Watson, SC, is red-faced with anger. “We have sworn testimony form a reliable person which implicates Mike Gallacher!” he storms. #icac”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 2:23 pm

  28. Sorry retweeted by Stphen Jones. Original 3 hours ago @ 326

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 2:24 pm

  29. NSW Parliament live 24

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 2:25 pm

  30. Can’t see any reason to register with VIT unless one wishes to teach in Victoria. Now lets see who offers education qualifications

    Melbourne
    Monash – Frankston Clayton Churchill ?Berwick
    Deakin – Warnnambool, Geelong, Burwood, Clayton
    La Trobe – Bundoora, Bendigo, Wodonga
    CSU – Albury
    VU
    Footscray Tafe
    Australian Catholic University
    Swinburne
    Ballarat now Federation University with Monash Gippsland

    are the ones I know about

    by billie on May 6, 2014 at 2:25 pm

  31. “@ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: @MikeBairdMP is facing his first question time as NSW Premier http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #nswpol #ICAC”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 2:27 pm

  32. I know psephologists like ER because it’s very slow to react… but you gotta wonder.

    by J341983 on May 6, 2014 at 2:29 pm

  33. Poodle should be careful or he will be lampooned by Mark Trevorrow.

    by Peter of Marino on May 6, 2014 at 2:29 pm

  34. John Robertson is moving a motion in NSW Parliament to introduce full public funding of election campaigns

    Presumably one featuring him being endorsed by Labor elders is not an expense the taxpayers will have to endure.

    by shellbell on May 6, 2014 at 2:30 pm

  35. “@abcnews: #BREAKING: Reserve Bank keeps rates unchanged at 2.5 per cent. #RBA statement: http://t.co/7yeAYvvIE1 #rates”

    “@TheKouk: No rate hike no cry… #RBA”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 2:30 pm

  36. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 57s

    No rate hike no cry… #RBA

    What was that Skippy?

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 2:31 pm

  37. Bevan Shields ‏@bevanshields85 3m
    John Robertson is moving a motion in NSW Parliament to introduce full public funding of election campaigns #nswpol #icac

    Oh so now the taxpayer has to prop up political parties who can’t find ethical/legitimate ways to fund themselves ??

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 2:31 pm

  38. DTR –

    Ability to read a report and understand it – don’t need a degree to do that

    Ability to analyse – many graduates are not capable

    Judgement comes with experience

    The hysteria about plagarism is more about cheating, being lazy and not putting effort in. Large scale plagarism indicates the assignment was beyond the capability of the students and that indicates a problem with the examiner not the student

    by billie on May 6, 2014 at 2:31 pm

  39. 325....fredex

    Essential’s methodology is obviously works not by capturing volatility but by smoothing it out. The sampling, surveying, projecting and weighting system they apply seems to suppress differences rather than sense them. It’s probably “internally valid” but is not really very informative. At least it doesn’t seem to generate either rouge or lipstick.

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 2:31 pm

  40. “@bevanshields85: Motion also calls for diaries of all MPs and ministers to be published each month #icac #nswpol”

    Robertson’s motion

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 2:32 pm

  41. DTR as a graduate I was never employed to read reports, write some sure. You must have had a cushy job!

    by billie on May 6, 2014 at 2:33 pm

  42. Bevan Shields ‏@bevanshields85 3m
    John Robertson is moving a motion in NSW Parliament to introduce full public funding of election campaigns #nswpol #icac

    Good idea.

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 2:33 pm

  43. Bronwyn Bishop should learn lessons from this Speaker

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 2:40 pm

  44. What a rabble the 2 major parties in NSW are.

    They aren’t capable of properly funding themselves so they’re shoring themselves up with taxpayer monies.

    Pathetic.

    by Rex Douglas on May 6, 2014 at 2:40 pm

  45. If Baird thinks he can deflect attention away from his own misdemeanours by referring to a trumped-up charge against Robertson… that he did not take a bribe!… then he has another think coming.

    by Bushfire Bill on May 6, 2014 at 2:40 pm

  46. Christ! Who Is this windbag Speaker in the Bear Pit?

    by Bushfire Bill on May 6, 2014 at 2:41 pm

  47. BB

    She warned Government members so she is better than Bishop

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 2:42 pm

  48. shellbell

    Presumably one featuring him being endorsed by Labor elders is not an expense the taxpayers will have to endure.

    I ‘somewhat’ unimpressed as well.

    by CTar1 on May 6, 2014 at 2:43 pm

  49. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/household-debt-highest-in-25-years/

    The above report should be subtitled “Why reducing the disposable incomes of households (cutting social spending, chopping tax rebates and increasing income taxes) is a really really bad idea!!!”

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 2:45 pm

  50. “@david_latham: Premier Baird admitting systemic rorting by the NSW Branch of the Liberals in #qt right now with apptmnt of some1 to clean them out #nswpol”

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 2:47 pm

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