Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.

This is the latest in a polling avalanche which has followed the interruption of Easter and Anzac Day, to which Essential Research is still to be added tomorrow. Three other polls published over the past two days have produced strikingly similar results on the primary vote, from which Newspoll differs in having Labor lower and the Greens higher:

• Galaxy, for the first time adding an online panel component to its live-interview phone polling to produce an enlarged sample of 1391, has the Labor lead at 52-48, with primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 6% for Palmer United.

• A ReachTEL poll conducted on Saturday, also from a larger-than-usual sample of 4016, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, with primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition, 39.6% for Labor, 11.2% for the Greens and 6.0% for Palmer United.

• Morgan’s multi-mode face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted every weekend but compiled fortnightly, has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 according to the conventional two-party preferred method that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election, increasing to 55-45 when preferences were allocated by the respondent. The primary votes are 37.5% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 12% for the Greens and 5.5% for Palmer United.

UPDATE: And now Essential Research comes in entirely unchanged on last week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United. Questions on the deficit tax show the importance of wording in these situations – just as carbon tax questions got a more favourable response when the rationale for them was laid out, inquiry about “a temporary ‘deficit’ tax on high and middle income earners aimed at bringing the budget back to surplus” has support and opposition tied at 34%. However, 48% favour the proposition that “introducing a new ‘deficit’ tax would be a broken promise by the Abbott Government” versus 33% for “it is more important to reduce the deficit than stick to pre-election promises”.

Other findings have “management of the Australian economy” all but unchanged since a year ago, with a total good rating of 40% (up one) and total bad of 31% (down one), but with results by party support having changed beyond recognition; Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen to manage the economy by 33% to 27%; Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26); 23% very concerned about job losses, 34% somewhat concerned and 29% not at all concerned; 77% believing the gap between rich and poor to have increased over the last 10 years, with only 3% for decreased; 29% thinking their own financial situation good versus 26% for poor; “the cost of living” rated by far the economic issue of most concern (56%, with unemployment in second place on 11%).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

703 Responses

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  1. sortius ‏@sortius 1m

    Now @ScottMorrisonMP is tricking refugees in community detention into being sent back to Christmas Is? Sickening #auspol

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 3:56 pm

  2. 389

    The wealth of the elite is now a bigger proportion of the wealth and that makes them more powerful.

    by Tom the first and best on May 6, 2014 at 3:56 pm

  3. Roy Morgan ‏@roymorganonline 1m

    ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 8% in two weeks after Budget policy leaks and the Commission of Audit http://ow.ly/wwfJH #auspol

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 3:58 pm

  4. I enjoyed the replay today of media Watch – Alan Jones bellyaching that everyone has been out to ‘get’ abbott from day one.

    abbott has damaged himself more than anyone else at this point of time.

    Long may it continue.

    by dave on May 6, 2014 at 4:00 pm

  5. What’s this about loading people onto boats and sending them into exile? Apart from humanitarian concerns I would have thought that it would be very dubious from a legal point of view.

    by Steve777 on May 6, 2014 at 4:03 pm

  6. Today i heard quite a few people wanting to say something about the state of our polity.
    Main thing upsetting them is proposed retirement age to 70 and also access fo superannuation being delayed until then. This alone, has fired up those in the forties age bracket.
    If this govt proceeds with this, they will lose a chunk of voters

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 4:04 pm

  7. @405

    It’s too late for them to complain.

    We have this gov for at least another 3 years?

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 4:05 pm

  8. What’s this about loading people onto boats and sending them into exile? Apart from humanitarian concerns I would have thought that it would be very dubious from a legal point of view.

    Legal? I think that horse bolted a long time ago, Steve.

    by kakuru on May 6, 2014 at 4:06 pm

  9. Vic – and if they don’t proceed abbott will look even more the goose – plus people won’t believe him that he won’t bring it on again.

    He has been the author of his current situation.

    by dave on May 6, 2014 at 4:06 pm

  10. Steve777

    The way they are going the High Court will have no choice but to rule offshore illegal just on safety grounds including turnbacks

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 4:06 pm

  11. Has this been posted today?

    The Liberal Party of NSW last month declared a four-year-old donation of $25,000 from the Warringah Club, a fundraising entity associated with Prime Minister Tony Abbott, as well as amending its most recent returns to declare more than $100,000 in political donations including in-kind support to Joe Hockey’s Federal Electoral Committee.
    The amended returns were received by the Australian Electoral Commission on April 5, 2014, as the Independent Commission Against Corruption was preparing to begin public hearings into political donations channelled to a company associated with a staff member in the office of Terrigal MP Chris Hartcher, uncovered during Operation Spicer.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/missing-liberal-donations-declared-four-years-later-20140505-zr515.html#ixzz30ufRtwNq

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 4:08 pm

  12. billie

    I’d get my bs detector checked if I were you.

    If half the graduates get work, that means that 2,500 don’t.

    More than half get contract work. As I said, of the remainder, some will be in full time positions (the AEU, who conducted the survey, don’t appear to have released these numbers – they are grinding an axe about contract work).

    However, you’re now admitting that the 5000 excess graduate figure is wrong, which is progress.

    I do agree (to some extent) that there are too many teachers trained for the positions available, but that wasn’t the point I was arguing – and it’s also a questionable one, anyway.

    My own sister started teacher training when there was a teacher glut, and spent some years working as a CRT. She’s now an Acting Principal. Short term pain, yes – but long term, she did very well.

    Similarly, it’s predicted that there’ll be a huge teacher shortage in a few years’ time, with over 30% of those currently employed retiring.

    by zoomster on May 6, 2014 at 4:10 pm

  13. Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26)

    I wonder how long that will last. If these dickheads end up crashing the economy – and they seem right on track to do it- Australian voters might finally wake up that Liberal ideology is the last thing that this country needs right now.

    by Darn on May 6, 2014 at 4:12 pm

  14. dave

    I was quite surprised by the strong response to this govt proposal.

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 4:13 pm

  15. victoria

    The Liberal Party of NSW last month declared a four-year-old donation of $25,000 from the Warringah Club, a fundraising entity associated with Prime Minister Tony Abbott, as well as amending its most recent returns to declare more than $100,000 in political donations including in-kind support to Joe Hockey’s Federal Electoral Committee.

    Who has been keeping their financial books? It just looks more and more dodgy.

    On the other hand, $25k here and $100k there is probably small change to them, kept in the cookie jar.

    by citizen on May 6, 2014 at 4:16 pm

  16. citizen

    It is all very curious

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 4:19 pm

  17. victoria@413

    dave

    I was quite surprised by the strong response to this govt proposal.

    Vic – my theory has been for a while is that it forcing more voters to become re-engaged in politics – at least to the extent that its going to effect them – otherwise they cop it.

    Now I want them to stop listening to anything abbott says and just notice what he is actually doing.

    by dave on May 6, 2014 at 4:24 pm

  18. dave

    Bingo

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 4:28 pm

  19. Victorian budget designed to blast Labor into oblivion

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-budget-2014-shock-and-awe-designed-to-blast-labor-20140506-zr5mn.html

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 4:32 pm

  20. From Robert Reich , on income inequality

    http://robertreich.org/post/84828387105

    Lie number four: Increasing the minimum wage will result in fewer jobs. So we shouldn’t raise it.

    In fact, studies show that increases in the minimum wage put more money in the pockets of people who will spend it – resulting in more jobs, and counteracting any negative employment effects of an increase in the minimum.

    by sceptic on May 6, 2014 at 4:34 pm

  21. ABC staff warned to prepare for worst

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abc-staff-warned-prepare-for-the-worst-20140506-zr5nx.html

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 4:39 pm

  22. The Liberal Party of NSW last month declared a four-year-old donation of $25,000 from the Warringah Club, a fundraising entity associated with Prime Minister Tony Abbott

    Unsurprisement that now they’re deciding these things need declaring. A corruption investigation tends to have that effect.

    by confessions on May 6, 2014 at 4:42 pm

  23. [victoria
    Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2014 at 4:32 pm | PERMALINK
    Victorian budget designed to blast Labor into oblivion

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-budget-2014-shock-and-awe-designed-to-blast-labor-20140506-zr5mn.html

    There seems to be an astounding amount of road and rail infrastructure but, according to the Age, little for health and hospitals.

    Against this, the Age reports almost daily on train service disruptions in Melbourne which cannot be fixed before the election. Apparently, poor rail services prior to the last election caused some seats to change hands.

    by citizen on May 6, 2014 at 4:45 pm

  24. Peter martin will his analysis on the Vic state budget.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-budget-2014-big-spending-but-not-for-some-time-20140506-zr5nv.html

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 4:46 pm

  25. I see Costello has been wheeled out to pressure Rabbott over the deceit levy.

    Who in the government or tory featherbed is going to speak out for the working poor????

    by Dee on May 6, 2014 at 4:46 pm

  26. $25k from Warringah Club?

    @410

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberal-fundraiser-broke-the-law-with-its-failure-to-declare-political-donations-20101104-17fv7.html

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 4:46 pm

  27. Is reinventing the wheel worthwhile? Deakin University says yes:

    http://keepitclever.com.au/revolutionising-car-industry/

    by Fran Barlow on May 6, 2014 at 4:47 pm

  28. https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/world/a/23246251/indon-navy-finds-rejected-asylum-seekers/

    If Natalegawa is being quoted accurately in this article then the Indonesians are pissed off.

    ” “I’m certainly not a mind reader and I haven’t been able to ascertain exactly what it is that is making it impossible for the prime minister to be in Bali at this time,” he said.”

    So Australia hasn’t given them a definitive reason for standing up their President?? That’s just rude, and in the context of the relationship with Indonesia shows that this Govt just does not consider Indonesia of any importance whatsoever. Abbott has obviously lied about being focused on “Jakarta not Geneva”. And he’s off to annoy Obama some time soon isn’t he??

    by imacca on May 6, 2014 at 4:49 pm

  29. US Cable Giant now deploying 1Gbps:
    http://delimiter.com.au/2014/05/06/us-cable-giant-cox-deploy-1gbps/

    What we get? “Upto 25Mbps” and still a Telstra Monopoly.

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 4:49 pm

  30. I sense a Costello resurrection coming on!

    by Dee on May 6, 2014 at 4:50 pm

  31. citizen

    As per Peter Martin’s piece

    The apparent big spending is concentrated in infrastructure. Most of it won't be spent for some years, and when it is it won't immediately hurt the budget. Capital spending doesn't contribute to the surplus or deficit, at the time. It contributes later via an accounting process called ''depreciation''.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-budget-2014-big-spending-but-not-for-some-time-20140506-zr5nv.html#ixzz30uq3rxj0

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 4:51 pm

  32. Dee

    Seriously?!

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 4:52 pm

  33. On the Victorian budget –

    This is a shock and awe budget designed to blast Labor into electoral oblivion. Odds on, it will succeed.

    Because, apparently –

    Indeed, Napthine government’s infrastructure program is so broad, so grandiose, that if the Coalition can’t get an electoral bounce out of this, nothing will save it.

    Dear journalistic sausage, big infrastructure spending has never, to my knowledge, seen voters stampede in the direction of the party offering it.

    ..a whopping $27 billion has been announced in this budget, including a new city rail tunnel, an airport rail link, the second stage of the East West link, a significant upgrade to the Cranbourne/Pakenham rail corridor, numerous level crossing removals and new schools.

    In that list, I can see only one potential vote changer – money spent on new schools. (Of course, Labor was going to rebuild every school in Victoria, so the ‘this is what we expected — five years ago’ might dampen the party a bit).

    The biggest chunk of spending kicks in in the next financial year, with $7.1 billion being unleashed to coincide with the November 2014 election.

    If it was going to be finished – not just starting – at the time of the election, it might mean something. As it is, people are going to realise they have nothing to lose by voting the government out – the project’s underway, after all.

    ...the government has finally woken up to the idea that voters are smart enough to make a connection between booming population growth and the need for better infrastructure.

    Right. And voters don’t necessarily reward governments for doing what they should have been doing anyway. They’re more likely to roll their eyes and wonder why it’s taken so long.

    Rather than appealing directly to the hip pocket – or fears about public safety – the government is promising to protect quality of life through better roads and public transport.

    For starters, the better roads and public transport were supposed to have been delivered by this government already – it was the main plank at the last election.

    Secondly, if they’re after a pre election bounce, they DO need to be appealing to the hip pocket (or scaring the bejeesuz out of people). They’ve left it too late to promote themselves as the Infrastructure Government (for this term, at least).

    The overarching political message is that three years of tough budgetary decisions have allowed the government to deliver changes that will lead to tangible quality of life improvements.

    ‘We’ve suffered for three years so that in ten years time we won’t be stuck in a traffic jam’ doesn’t really resonate.

    “We’ve suffered for three years to reduce hospital waiting lists, improve ambulance services, beef up the CFA, and improve schools” – maybe, but they’d still have preferred these things up front and then do the suffering.

    O’Brien and Napthine can boast that they have delivered the strongest financial position in the nation, with a AAA credit rating and a string of surpluses tallying to a record $11 billion over the four-year budget period. That’s quite a war chest.

    A war chest equally available to Labor to use to fund their policies, which – if they’ve got even half a brain – will be focussed on improving the services people need now.

    ...as things stand now, Labor’s transport vision - to eliminate 50 level crossings and build an off-ramp on the Westgate Bridge for trucks – seems myopic and threadbare by comparison.

    Maybe so. Or maybe Labor has realised that the big picture infrastructure items that get the Victorian Liberals all hot and sweaty don’t actually mean much to the person on the street.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-budget-2014-shock-and-awe-designed-to-blast-labor-20140506-zr5mn.html#ixzz30uougPXI

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-budget-2014-shock-and-awe-designed-to-blast-labor-20140506-zr5mn.html#ixzz30unFuAPa

    by zoomster on May 6, 2014 at 4:53 pm

  34. Hurricane season in US may start early:
    http://weather.aol.com/2014/05/05/east-pacific-hurricane-season-may-start-early/

    “Thanks to warmer than usual sea surface temperatures attributable to a developing El Niño in the East Pacific, there is a good chance that this area of low pressure acquires tropical characteristics.”

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 4:53 pm

  35. zoidlord

    The FTTP although rated at 100Nbs it was pretty much ready to go to 1Gbps when needed. Then along came Fraudband. Bastards.

    by poroti on May 6, 2014 at 4:55 pm

  36. Sceptic

    Years ago, when I was just a tiny socialist the more sage and pompous adults I met would advance what seemed to me to be a kind of iron law of inequality. “If you divided up the world’s wealth evenly, then within a decade it would be just as unequal as before” they would insist.

    Now this is clearly one of those impossible counterfactuals, because we know nothing about the drivers of the process causing such a radical babeuvist redivision. Let’s put that to one side though. If they are right, it follows that higher wages to the poor will not harm the elite at all — because all the rich will soon get it all back. Of course, at least temporarily, the poor will be holding onto it, and many will use it to get what they need before their congenital incapacity to do right by themselves asserts itself.

    by Fran Barlow on May 6, 2014 at 4:56 pm

  37. @432

    So how would that wipe out Labor considering that Federal Coaltion Party are doing shock and awe cuts? and saying Labor spent too much?

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 4:58 pm

  38. @434

    FTTP has pretty much endless bandwidth, it’s just the equipment at each end needs to be replaced, unlike FTTN, where most of the equipment needs to be replaced, and the topology changed.

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 4:59 pm

  39. Victoria

    Seriously?

    Would you be surprised?

    by Dee on May 6, 2014 at 5:11 pm

  40. I sense a Costello resurrection coming on!

    So now we know why O’Dwyer wasn’t given a ministry!

    Those cunning Libs.

    by Jackol on May 6, 2014 at 5:11 pm

  41. victoria @ 420

    ABC staff warned to prepare for worst

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abc-staff-warned-prepare-for-the-worst-20140506-zr5nx.html

    I know of 2 staff they could axe immediately.. Toolman and Sales. Sarah Ferguson has shown them up as the partisan lightweights they are and made them both redundant.

    by Peter of Marino on May 6, 2014 at 5:12 pm

  42. Fran

    If they are right, it follows that higher wages to the poor will not harm the elite at all — because all the rich will soon get it all back. Of course, at least temporarily, the poor will be holding onto it, and many will use it to get what they need before their congenital incapacity to do right by themselves asserts itself.

    A great point very nicely made!

    by Jolyon Wagg on May 6, 2014 at 5:16 pm

  43. Hrm, I just got a letter from the Government advising me to switch to Private Insurance.

    And they just about to sell Medibank, and make it a Private Insurance?

    Conflict of Interest much?

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 5:16 pm

  44. Dee@429

    I sense a Costello resurrection coming on!

    So we missed an ‘Abbott & Costello’ act so now you’re predicting an ‘Abbott then Costello’ act?

    Too funny for words. :lol:

    by bemused on May 6, 2014 at 5:16 pm

  45. zoomster

    Appreciafe the analysis

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 5:19 pm

  46. Peter of marino

    Absolutely agree. In particular, Sales has been shown up by her replacement Sarah Ferguson

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 5:20 pm

  47. Bemused Comrade

    I have a sense that you have not been posting as frequently over the last week or so.

    Am I wrong? Or are you just having a respite from some of the sillier PBers?

    by psyclaw on May 6, 2014 at 5:21 pm

  48. Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26)

    Haven’t looked in here for a while but I am always bemused by this sort of poll finding? Perhaps it has already been discussed to death here but where, oh where, do people think that the Libs are better economic managers than Labor?

    They stink at it – always have, always will. It’s all gravy for their business mates at the top end of town and posh private schools and sweet FA for the rest.

    Which Treasurer presided over the highest interest rates? Which PM squandered billions of $$ in pork barrelling so as to remain in office for eons (well it felt like it)?

    Gimme a break. Economic managers? The Lib/NP mob wouldn’t know when their a***s were on fire.

    by Allan Moyes on May 6, 2014 at 5:22 pm

  49. Before i headed out for the day, i listened to Jon Faine on ABC774 speak with Greg Sheridan. Before introducing him, faine said Sheridan would be discussing Russia, UK politics, Gerry Adams and why Abbott did not go to Indonesia and what it means for our relationship. Not hard to guess which topic Sheridan did not talk about.

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 5:24 pm

  50. Bemused

    So we missed an ‘Abbott & Costello’ act so now you’re predicting an ‘Abbott then Costello’ act?

    Too funny for words

    :lol:

    A double act would make some good headlines.

    Costello had approached Kroger in 2012 to assist him back into politics. He denied the approach of course but senior Libs said he did and Kroger told him at the time it was a crazy idea.

    Perhaps seen as crazy then, maybe not so now.

    by Dee on May 6, 2014 at 5:26 pm

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