Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.

This is the latest in a polling avalanche which has followed the interruption of Easter and Anzac Day, to which Essential Research is still to be added tomorrow. Three other polls published over the past two days have produced strikingly similar results on the primary vote, from which Newspoll differs in having Labor lower and the Greens higher:

• Galaxy, for the first time adding an online panel component to its live-interview phone polling to produce an enlarged sample of 1391, has the Labor lead at 52-48, with primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 6% for Palmer United.

• A ReachTEL poll conducted on Saturday, also from a larger-than-usual sample of 4016, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, with primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition, 39.6% for Labor, 11.2% for the Greens and 6.0% for Palmer United.

• Morgan’s multi-mode face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted every weekend but compiled fortnightly, has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 according to the conventional two-party preferred method that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election, increasing to 55-45 when preferences were allocated by the respondent. The primary votes are 37.5% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 12% for the Greens and 5.5% for Palmer United.

UPDATE: And now Essential Research comes in entirely unchanged on last week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United. Questions on the deficit tax show the importance of wording in these situations – just as carbon tax questions got a more favourable response when the rationale for them was laid out, inquiry about “a temporary ‘deficit’ tax on high and middle income earners aimed at bringing the budget back to surplus” has support and opposition tied at 34%. However, 48% favour the proposition that “introducing a new ‘deficit’ tax would be a broken promise by the Abbott Government” versus 33% for “it is more important to reduce the deficit than stick to pre-election promises”.

Other findings have “management of the Australian economy” all but unchanged since a year ago, with a total good rating of 40% (up one) and total bad of 31% (down one), but with results by party support having changed beyond recognition; Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen to manage the economy by 33% to 27%; Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26); 23% very concerned about job losses, 34% somewhat concerned and 29% not at all concerned; 77% believing the gap between rich and poor to have increased over the last 10 years, with only 3% for decreased; 29% thinking their own financial situation good versus 26% for poor; “the cost of living” rated by far the economic issue of most concern (56%, with unemployment in second place on 11%).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

703 Responses

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  1. psyclaw@446

    Bemused Comrade

    I have a sense that you have not been posting as frequently over the last week or so.

    Am I wrong? Or are you just having a respite from some of the sillier PBers?

    Your observation is correct but I have tried to keep an eye on things.

    by bemused on May 6, 2014 at 5:27 pm

  2. I heard Peter Lewis (Essential) being interviewed on ABC a while back.

    He was quoting a numerous poll results about various issues. The best Abbotteer score of about a half dozen or so issues canvassed was 41% support.

    This suggests that a swag of September 2103 supporters in the order of about 10% is unimpressed with their governmental capacities. Presumably they include the moving voters who transitioned from Labor in the post 2007 period.

    No wonder Abbott is staying at home at the moment, watching his back.

    by psyclaw on May 6, 2014 at 5:30 pm

  3. @abcnews: Clive Palmer rejects allegations of bribery and contempt over PUP effort to lure Qld MP to party http://t.co/s8LTir8GYk

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 5:30 pm

  4. Gimme a break. Economic managers? The Lib/NP mob wouldn’t know when their a***s were on fire.

    Yeah, but it’s not about facts!

    What they are great at is selling the lie and creating perceptions.

    Unfortunately, after all these years, the ALP still haven’t figured out how to counter it.

    by Dee on May 6, 2014 at 5:31 pm

  5. @margokingston1: Slow-motion @billshortenmp now ‘doesn’t rule out’ backing a Federal #ICAC – keep pushing, Greens http://t.co/T8tTY6NtcX #ICAC

    by guytaur on May 6, 2014 at 5:31 pm

  6. Allan Moyes@447


    Haven’t looked in here for a while but I am always bemused by this sort of poll finding? Perhaps it has already been discussed to death here but where, oh where, do people think that the Libs are better economic managers than Labor?

    DEBT DEBT DEBT DEBT BUDGET SURPLUS LABOR WASTE repeated x infinity and a complete inability of the ALP to defend their track record

    by p m z on May 6, 2014 at 5:32 pm

  7. I don’t know what that Age writer found in the Vic budget to hyperventilate about.

    The Libs plans for the new Metro basically destroy a lot of its value and could well be a white elephant if implemented.

    Most of the infrastructure is well into the future.

    by bemused on May 6, 2014 at 5:34 pm

  8. Bemused #450

    I understand.

    Engaging with fools, trolls and the wilfully blind can be a bit draining at times.

    Whilst there are many PBers who are not in those categories, sometimes the Fs, Ts, and WBs rule the roost and a recess is warranted.

    by psyclaw on May 6, 2014 at 5:35 pm

  9. Labor is offerring to fix 30 of the most delay prone and dangerous rail crossings. That will resonate with voters far more than some futuristic vision of an $11billion spend on infrastructure.

    Labor lost the last election because of perceived problems on the existing rail link. Looks like the Libs are determined to do the same this time.

    by Greensborough Growler on May 6, 2014 at 5:39 pm

  10. bemused

    According to the reporter, the Napthine govt is going to send labor into oblviion no less!!

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 5:40 pm

  11. psyclaw “just having a respite from some of the sillier PBers?”

    Are you referring to your definition of ‘sillier PBers’ or Bemused’s definition? I think I am a proud member of the large group falling under the second definition. :-)

    by Simon Katich on May 6, 2014 at 5:42 pm

  12. victoria@459

    bemused

    According to the reporter, the Napthine govt is going to send labor into oblviion no less!!

    Obviously a dimwit taken in by smoke and mirrors.

    by bemused on May 6, 2014 at 5:43 pm

  13. psyclaw@457

    Bemused #450

    I understand.

    Engaging with fools, trolls and the wilfully blind can be a bit draining at times.

    Whilst there are many PBers who are not in those categories, sometimes the Fs, Ts, and WBs rule the roost and a recess is warranted.

    I must confess to groaning a bit at some of the conspiracy theories about Newspoll and other pollsters.

    William covered that off pretty well.

    by bemused on May 6, 2014 at 5:45 pm

  14. Why did Costello come out to attack the Govt today? His opinion piece in the Terror was incomprehensible, don’t tax the rich because they vote Liberal seemed to be his only real point.

    Or is he worried that his decade of tax cuts is being shown to be a scam at last.

    by ruawake on May 6, 2014 at 5:45 pm

  15. Simon Katich@460

    psyclaw “just having a respite from some of the sillier PBers?”

    Are you referring to your definition of ‘sillier PBers’ or Bemused’s definition? I think I am a proud member of the large group falling under the second definition.

    I don’t recall taking issue with any of your posts.

    by bemused on May 6, 2014 at 5:47 pm

  16. Jacinta Allan ‏@JacintaAllanMP 2h
    Regional Vic abandoned by Napthine. 25% of population but just 4% of infrastructure funds. #springst

    That’s a bit odd, when Napthine is ‘regional’ himself. You’d think he’d understand their problems.

    by lizzie on May 6, 2014 at 5:54 pm

  17. Why did Costello come out to attack the Govt today? His opinion piece in the Terror was incomprehensible, don’t tax the rich because they vote Liberal seemed to be his only real point.

    It’s a silly move by Costello and Reith ftm. As if Abbott is going to back down on the debt tax. It would forever taint him as weak-kneed and spineless, lacking the ticker for the hard decisions needed in govt.

    by confessions on May 6, 2014 at 5:54 pm

  18. Simon K

    The few that I had in my mind I am pretty sure would be common to my list, Bemused’s list and your list.

    by psyclaw on May 6, 2014 at 5:54 pm

  19. Retweeted by sortius
    Peter Bowditch ‏@RatbagsDotCom 4h

    The warning is back: The HCCC issues another public warning. No escape this time. #StopAVN… http://dlvr.it/5ZwHmc

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 5:56 pm

  20. Two, not one!

    The turn-back of two groups of asylum seekers on Monday has put further strain on the Australia-Indonesia relationship after Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa launched another stinging criticism of the Abbott government's boats policy. .

    Indonesian officials confirmed that two boats of asylum seekers were intercepted by Australian naval or Customs vessels in recent days and their 20 passengers put together onto one wooden vessel and pushed back towards Indonesian waters.

    Dr Natalegawa said there were a few “issues” between the two countries, but that the boat policy remained a problem.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-policy-a-failure-as-boats-keep-coming-says-indonesian-foreign-minister-marty-natalegawa-20140506-zr5q7.html#ixzz30v74v800

    by lizzie on May 6, 2014 at 5:57 pm

  21. 454
    guytaur

    @margokingston1: Slow-motion @billshortenmp now ‘doesn’t rule out’ backing a Federal #ICAC – keep pushing, Greens http://t.co/T8tTY6NtcX #ICAC

    There should be an Federal ICAC and there should be further reform of the laws relating to electoral donations.

    It should be illegal to receive donations either directly or indirectly from persons, firms (or industry organisations, lobbyists or consultants that represent such firms) who are engaged in:

    property development; construction and engineering; banking, finance, securities dealing and broking; insurance; health services, hospitals, aged-care services; pharmaceutical supply; electricity generation and distribution; mining and quarrying; the operation of ports, railways, airports, tollways and bridges; publishing, broadcasting and telephony; tobacco and alcohol; racing and gaming; defence equipment and services….among others…

    All donations above $1,000 whether made directly or indirectly should be reported to the AEC and held on a public register.

    All organisations such as the IPA, Sydney Institute, Australia Institute, Greenpeace, Get-Up and others that seek to influence political opinion and the policies of political parties should have to register with the AEC and disclose the sources of their funding in the same way as political parties.

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 5:58 pm

  22. Why did Costello come out to attack the Govt today?

    One possibility is that he knows Abbott is a farkwit and resents that he has risen to PM when he (Costello) should have been the Lib love child. Too bad for him that he didn’t have the ticker to take on the job as opp leader when they offered it to him.

    by Tom Hawkins on May 6, 2014 at 5:58 pm

  23. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140504133211.htm

    Environmentally friendly solar cell pushes forward the ‘next big thing in photovoltaics’

    Researchers have developed a solar cell with good efficiency that uses tin instead of lead perovskite as the harvester of light. The low-cost, environmentally friendly solar cell can be made easily using 'bench' chemistry -- no fancy equipment or hazardous materials. Perovskite solar cells are being touted as the 'next big thing in photovoltaics.' Lead perovskite has achieved 15 percent efficiency, and tin perovskite should be able to match -- and possibly surpass -- that.

    by lizzie on May 6, 2014 at 6:00 pm

  24. All organisations such as the IPA, Sydney Institute, Australia Institute, Greenpeace, Get-Up and others that seek to influence political opinion and the policies of political parties should have to register with the AEC and disclose the sources of their funding in the same way as political parties.

    I agree with the requirement to disclose their funding sources, but not sure what requiring them to register with the AEC would do, other than add another administrative burden to the AEC.

    by confessions on May 6, 2014 at 6:05 pm

  25. briefly

    Good stuff, I would add a limit on 3rd Party advertising like the $22 million the mining industry paid to kill off the RSPT. No more Minerals Council to hide behind. List the major companies (if it take 20 seconds stiff shit)

    by ruawake on May 6, 2014 at 6:09 pm

  26. 471
    Tom Hawkins

    Why did Costello come out to attack the Govt today?

    For the money.

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 6:10 pm

  27. WTFig???

    he crew of an asylum seeker boat turned back to Indonesia by the Australian Navy says three extra passengers were added to their boat from the Australian ships.

    Indonesia's navy has issued a statement based on testimony given by the crew, who were found on a wooden boat stranded on a small island in eastern Indonesia.

    The three crew members reportedly told navy investigators two Australian warships put three extra people on board their boat - an Indonesian and two people from Albania - before they were escorted back to Indonesian waters on Sunday.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-06/an-indonesia-navy-issues-statement-on-asylum-seeker-boat-turn-b/5432284

    MORRISON HAS TO BE SACKED.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 6, 2014 at 6:10 pm

  28. Bemused, you did once refer to me as a pied piper. And I think I once likened you (at least the mood you were in) to Father Jack.

    But I am glad not be be included in your T’s F’s and WB’ groupings.

    by Simon Katich on May 6, 2014 at 6:12 pm

  29. With respect to the people involved I think this should be above politics for a while, seems that The Borg has his own Dr Death to deal with.

    Health authorities are investigating four surgeries by a foreign-trained doctor at Rockhampton Hospital in Queensland after a patient at the hospital had the wrong kidney removed.

    Surgeon Antonio Vega Vega, a Spanish national, has lost his right to practise at Rockhampton Hospital.

    In addition, the hospital's acting executive director of medical services and the director of surgery have both been sacked.

    by ruawake on May 6, 2014 at 6:13 pm

  30. As if Abbott is going to back down on the debt tax. It would forever taint him as weak-kneed and spineless, lacking the ticker for the hard decisions needed in govt.

    Though far less damaging politically than proceeding with the deceit tax.

    by Dee on May 6, 2014 at 6:18 pm

  31. 473
    confessions

    All organisations such as the IPA, Sydney Institute, Australia Institute, Greenpeace, Get-Up and others that seek to influence political opinion and the policies of political parties should have to register with the AEC and disclose the sources of their funding in the same way as political parties.

    I agree with the requirement to disclose their funding sources, but not sure what requiring them to register with the AEC would do, other than add another administrative burden to the AEC.

    So their funding can be disclosed on a public register

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 6:18 pm

  32. In ICAC comes the evidence that David Sharpe from Tinkler’s Buildev paid the bill at upmarket Doyles Restaurant one New Years Eve, when Michael Gallacher and family were the guests.

    The bill was $5K.

    I’m sure that restaurant bills of these proportions are common events at the Big End of Town.

    Here is the key question … who actually “owns” the money.

    Shareholders? Probly.

    Taxpayers? For sure, by way of “business expenses”.

    What a gouge? What a rort are the everyday practices of corporate Australia.

    A friend of mine owns a small regional restaurant. He’s had to get in a large supply of 1997 Grange … a regular corporate luncher likes it and often comes to lunch with the bill around $1500-$2000.

    by psyclaw on May 6, 2014 at 6:18 pm

  33. 474
    ruawake

    briefly

    Good stuff, I would add a limit on 3rd Party advertising like the $22 million the mining industry paid to kill off the RSPT. No more Minerals Council to hide behind. List the major companies (if it take 20 seconds stiff shit)

    I don’t think that would survive in the High Court…and maybe it would be undesirable on policy grounds. What would become of the next ACTU campaign against a new Workchoices?

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 6:20 pm

  34. Dee:

    The deficit tax is supported by the public, particularly if the threshold is raised from the current proposed $80K to something more like a high income level.

    by confessions on May 6, 2014 at 6:22 pm

  35. Simon Katich@477

    Bemused, you did once refer to me as a pied piper. And I think I once likened you (at least the mood you were in) to Father Jack.

    But I am glad not be be included in your T’s F’s and WB’ groupings.

    :lol: did I?

    Goodness, what did you do to provoke me? :P

    by bemused on May 6, 2014 at 6:23 pm

  36. briefly:

    Fair enough, yes, I think that’s sensible then.

    Btw are you looking forward to our first strong cold front of the season on Thursday? You can see it quite clearly now on ‘our earth’. :)

    by confessions on May 6, 2014 at 6:24 pm

  37. Though far less damaging politically than proceeding with the deceit tax.

    Not so sure about that.

    The government’s gone out of its way to scare the shit out of the voters.

    If they squib the Deficit Tax now – if all this fear and loathing has been for nothing – it will probably backfire on them bigtime.

    Likewise, the Victorian Coalition’s Budget, was just TOO generous.

    Good times for all, roads everywhere, tunnels, level crossings bridged… all costing billions and billions.

    I think they’ve over-egged it on the positive side, whereas Abbott has monumentally under-egged it.

    Both have had years to get their Budgets ready, and they’ve basically come up with garbage: everyone wins a kewpie doll, or has their fairy floss confiscated.

    It’s no way to run a country, or a state.

    by Bushfire Bill on May 6, 2014 at 6:24 pm

  38. While the following dose of reality will do nothing to diminish in the slightest degree our MSM’s “time-honoured” spruiking that all Labor governments are incompetent to run a chook raffle, I still think this is worth a passing notice.

    Bureaucrat admits minister Peter Garrett kept in dark on foil insulation safety warnings

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-06/bureaucrat-admits-garrett-kept-in-dark-on-foil-warnings/5434584

    by Atticus on May 6, 2014 at 6:25 pm

  39. psyclaw

    I wonder if the “corporate luncher” has heard of FBT?

    by ruawake on May 6, 2014 at 6:25 pm

  40. 485
    confessions

    briefly:

    Fair enough, yes, I think that’s sensible then.

    Btw are you looking forward to our first strong cold front of the season on Thursday? You can see it quite clearly now on ‘our earth’. :)

    I’m full of anticipation!

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 6:26 pm

  41. It’s cooler today…very overcast…winter approaches in a grey coat

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 6:27 pm

  42. If Rabbott proceeds with the deceit tax it will be a broken promise, one which Rabbott said was absolute. No new taxes.

    He will have to consider which direction will cause the least political damage.

    If the media hysteria is anything to go by, he is going to be flayed on breaking a promise if he sticks with the deceit tax.

    by Dee on May 6, 2014 at 6:31 pm

  43. Gyngel gave Packer a black eye – yo byo tay :)

    For heaven’s sake, what’s all this talk about involving the police over the incident?

    Haven’t they got better things to do, seriously!

    by Centre on May 6, 2014 at 6:33 pm

  44. Simon Katich

    You speak of Father Jack.

    As a regular at the NSW Special Commission into clergy abuse I saw a real life Father Jack.

    A pathetic alcoholic priest was a witness being cross examined. He was the only resident at a small RC Presbytery who was replaced there by the offending priest who was the Commission’s (already convicted) target.

    This “FatherJack” was allegedly the fall guy, claiming that the porno magazines found at the residence were left behind by him, and not the property of his friend, the then accused priest who was the next resident.

    This local Father Jack was totally humiliated, red faced, badly alcoholic, incoherent, brain damaged. And he quite resembled the Father Ted character.

    It was a truly pathetic scene and even the victims and their families in the public gallery were saddened by the sight.

    by psyclaw on May 6, 2014 at 6:34 pm

  45. FTA News actually reported Coalition Polling falling, protests.

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 6:36 pm

  46. Dee:

    The deficit tax will be introduced with the budget, but with a much higher threshold than the $80,000 leaked last week. Some are saying $150K, others, including some pollsters are anticipating higher than that.

    If this is the case, it will pass over voterland with nary a care, esp when you consider the other stuff that’s likely to be in the budget, much of which will have a far more demonstrable impact on a larger mass of voters than Tony’s Tax.

    by confessions on May 6, 2014 at 6:38 pm

  47. Emperor Colin Barnett: “We have high standards in this Parliament”.

    Labor Opposition: Fulsome, full-blooded laughter.

    Long Suffering WA Public: Buswell smells like an old bit of cheese.

    by Tricot on May 6, 2014 at 6:39 pm

  48. Everybody knows there should be a federal ICAC.

    How desperate and pathetic for a PRACTICAL idea are the Greens wanting to claim it as their own.

    How’s climate change going? Oh yeah, real good!

    by Centre on May 6, 2014 at 6:39 pm

  49. Simon Cullen
    Indonesia's Foreign Minister says the recent asylum seeker boat turn back is a "very serious development" because more people were added.

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 6:39 pm

  50. confessions, I’ve been watching the equatorial Pacific. In the central reaches, from about 180E to 150W the Easterly Trade has swapped direction and is now blowing the other way. A similar Westerly flow has been running in the far Eastern zone too (all of this reflecting my fascination with El Nino…)

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-160.72,-3.04,414

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 6:40 pm

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