Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.

This is the latest in a polling avalanche which has followed the interruption of Easter and Anzac Day, to which Essential Research is still to be added tomorrow. Three other polls published over the past two days have produced strikingly similar results on the primary vote, from which Newspoll differs in having Labor lower and the Greens higher:

• Galaxy, for the first time adding an online panel component to its live-interview phone polling to produce an enlarged sample of 1391, has the Labor lead at 52-48, with primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 6% for Palmer United.

• A ReachTEL poll conducted on Saturday, also from a larger-than-usual sample of 4016, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, with primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition, 39.6% for Labor, 11.2% for the Greens and 6.0% for Palmer United.

• Morgan’s multi-mode face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted every weekend but compiled fortnightly, has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 according to the conventional two-party preferred method that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election, increasing to 55-45 when preferences were allocated by the respondent. The primary votes are 37.5% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 12% for the Greens and 5.5% for Palmer United.

UPDATE: And now Essential Research comes in entirely unchanged on last week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United. Questions on the deficit tax show the importance of wording in these situations – just as carbon tax questions got a more favourable response when the rationale for them was laid out, inquiry about “a temporary ‘deficit’ tax on high and middle income earners aimed at bringing the budget back to surplus” has support and opposition tied at 34%. However, 48% favour the proposition that “introducing a new ‘deficit’ tax would be a broken promise by the Abbott Government” versus 33% for “it is more important to reduce the deficit than stick to pre-election promises”.

Other findings have “management of the Australian economy” all but unchanged since a year ago, with a total good rating of 40% (up one) and total bad of 31% (down one), but with results by party support having changed beyond recognition; Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen to manage the economy by 33% to 27%; Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26); 23% very concerned about job losses, 34% somewhat concerned and 29% not at all concerned; 77% believing the gap between rich and poor to have increased over the last 10 years, with only 3% for decreased; 29% thinking their own financial situation good versus 26% for poor; “the cost of living” rated by far the economic issue of most concern (56%, with unemployment in second place on 11%).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

703 Responses

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  1. Ruawake

    There is a subtle difference between FBT and “business expenses”.

    The Big End will always use the latter category.

    BTW did you ever wonder who actually owns all those $1000K cruisers moored at marinas all over the country ….. the ones that require $5K of fuel for a Sunday runaround with the family?

    And Abbott managed to convince so many that Craig Thomson was the archetypical thief.

    by psyclaw on May 6, 2014 at 6:40 pm

  2. Mancester City have reportedly offered a $300M transfer fee for Lionel Messi.

    That’s not enough.

    by Diogenes on May 6, 2014 at 6:42 pm

  3. The deficit tax is supported by the public, particularly if the threshold is raised from the current proposed $80K to something more like a high income level.

    Yes, I don’t see the deficit tax as a major negative, in fact as Mumble says, it could well end up being one of the more popular parts of the budget. Especially when compared to things like a GP surcharge or raising the pension age.

    As to the broken promise, I thought everyone just expects new governments to ditch their promises at the first budget. It’s an Australian tradition.

    by Sir Mad Cyril on May 6, 2014 at 6:44 pm

  4. Diogs

    That’s more than the salary of every player in the NRL and AFL put together.

    by Centre on May 6, 2014 at 6:44 pm

  5. 495
    confessions

    Dee:

    The deficit tax will be introduced with the budget, but with a much higher threshold than the $80,000 leaked last week. Some are saying $150K, others, including some pollsters are anticipating higher than that.

    In this case the tax will raise almost no money. Abbott will have broken a promise to introduce a tax (while denying it is a tax) that will raise no money and probably never get through the Senate.

    And this will have been done to try and find political cover for a whole series of frightening and unnecessary cuts in social support.

    The only good thing I’ve heard about the budget is the planned reform of -ve gearing. I hope it happens. It will make a real difference.

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 6:45 pm

  6. I thought everyone just expects new governments to ditch their promises at the first budget.

    Don’t tell Julia she will go off her rocka :lol:

    by Centre on May 6, 2014 at 6:47 pm

  7. Centre

    That’s more than the salary of every player in the NRL and AFL put together.

    That’s the transfer fee rather than his salary. His salary would be about 20% of that, so about $60M.

    by Diogenes on May 6, 2014 at 6:48 pm

  8. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/06/abbott-government-close-to-losing-voters-trust

    The government might be able to manage the politics of a co-payment for higher earners, but for the poor even a small financial slug could mean they defer or don’t seek necessary health care because they can’t pay. It might be able to manage the politics of some structural savings measures – restricting family benefits to lower income households for example, although explaining the cut to household incomes after all that hyperventilating about the “unimaginable” cost of the carbon tax could prove tricky.

    But having paraded for years as the champions of the everyman, the party in touch with the voters, if the government now fails to understand the things Australians value more than money, if it doesn’t make “tough choices” to protect those things, it will be the biggest breach of trust of them all.

    by lizzie on May 6, 2014 at 6:48 pm

  9. Going back a few pages, there is, of course, nothing mutually exclusive about being mentally ill and being an immature boofhead. It’s not only nice people who are afflicted with psychiatric problems.

    by theintellectualbogan on May 6, 2014 at 6:48 pm

  10. Dio
    $300mil is nowhere near enough. Lucky if it buys his bootlaces.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 6, 2014 at 6:48 pm

  11. sortius ‏@sortius 1m

    Let’s just remind ourselves of the quality of Vodafone executives: http://www.crn.com.au/News/344231,vodafone-still-bleeding-customers.aspx … #NBN #auspol

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 44s

    There’s a touch of Fox News about the budget countdown on the govt website… http://www.budget.gov.au/2014-15/index.htm

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 6:49 pm

  12. briefly:

    Yes it’s looking like we’ll have an El Nino year. I think the BoM is still forecasting a 70% chance of it, at least the last time I looked.

    As for our earth, I can’t stay away from the roaring forties. It just freaks me out imagining the kind of seas that area has. And I’m going to keep watch as the winter descends to see those fronts start to slip higher, away from Antarctica.

    by confessions on May 6, 2014 at 6:49 pm

  13. Of all the things Cossie went off about the budget, not the GP tax, not a freezing of the aged-pension, not cuts to disabilities – he was concerned about a small tax increase to people who won’t even notice it.

    What a loser!

    by Centre on May 6, 2014 at 6:51 pm

  14. ru

    Health authorities are investigating four surgeries by a foreign-trained doctor at Rockhampton Hospital in Queensland after a patient at the hospital had the wrong kidney removed.

    Surgeon Antonio Vega Vega, a Spanish national, has lost his right to practise at Rockhampton Hospital.

    In addition, the hospital's acting executive director of medical services and the director of surgery have both been sacked.

    I’m not sure why those other two have been sacked unless there is a lot more going on than we’ve been told.

    I’m also guessing Newman’s plan to let all the specialists resign and replace them with foreign-trained doctors might have hit a bit of turbulence.

    by Diogenes on May 6, 2014 at 6:52 pm

  15. Mancester City have reportedly offered a $300M transfer fee for Lionel Messi.

    He’s been crocked for a lot of this year hasn’t he? What if his best days are behind him. It could be too much!

    by Sir Mad Cyril on May 6, 2014 at 6:54 pm

  16. Diogenes

    Mancester City have reportedly offered a $300M transfer fee for Lionel Messi.

    For some reason such news reminds me of this ad ;)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvUIbqKyppY

    by poroti on May 6, 2014 at 6:54 pm

  17. briefly:

    I make no comment on the effectiveness of otherwise of the deficit tax, merely that now it’s been leaked, and leaked with details (ie $80k threshold), the govt has no choice but to handle that.

    I personally don’t see much hostility for the deficit tax, other than from partisans on either side of the fence. There seems to be more community concern about a GP co-payment, esp as Barnett has flagged charging patients who front EDs.

    by confessions on May 6, 2014 at 6:54 pm

  18. I am exaggerating of course. 300mill would get a little more than his bootlaces.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 6, 2014 at 6:55 pm

  19. Diogs

    It’s just unbelievable the amount of money in the EPL.

    by Centre on May 6, 2014 at 6:55 pm

  20. Confessions

    Mr Costello also predicted the Government was preparing to retreat from the levy.

    Guess we’ll have to wait and see!

    by Dee on May 6, 2014 at 6:55 pm

  21. http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/may/05/rise-of-e-cigarettes-miracle-or-health-risk

    (long article)

    Gilmore says e-cigarettes could be seen as "a godsend for the tobacco industry. With cigarette companies selling e-cigarettes, there isn't the competition between e-cigarettes and cigarettes that would likely reduce tobacco-smoking. And just as their last advertising avenue for tobacco – cigarette packets – is being closed down, tobacco companies can advertise e-cigarettes – effectively showing lots of pictures of people, basically, smoking."

    by lizzie on May 6, 2014 at 6:56 pm

  22. hehe poroti @ 515

    by Centre on May 6, 2014 at 6:57 pm

  23. Centre

    A few clubs are owned by billionaires and they can spend whatever they want.

    Cyril

    Messi did a hamstring but he’s played most of the year. He still came second in the Balloon D’Or (to Ronaldo). He’s 26 so he’s probably at his prime.

    by Diogenes on May 6, 2014 at 6:58 pm

  24. Retweeted by Adam Bandt
    Jeremy Buckingham ‏@greensjeremy 1h

    Australian coalmining is entering ‘structural decline’, reports says http://gu.com/p/3pvyz/tw via @guardian

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 6:59 pm

  25. Dee:

    Yes we will have to wait and see. From a Labor perspective I’m hoping that they ditch the deficit tax, chiefly because it allows Abbott to be painted as weak, spineless, lacking in ticker and failing to back up his and Hockey’s rhetoric with action other than targetting those in the community who are most vulernable.

    by confessions on May 6, 2014 at 7:00 pm

  26. The deceit tax is a complete waste of money. Why pay back was is relatively modest debt when there are so many more useful purposes additional tax revenue could be put to.

    NOTHING changes the fact that Abbott LIED though.

    by mikehilliard on May 6, 2014 at 7:01 pm

  27. TWO councillors have backed allegations that Premier Denis Napthine interfered with the City of Ballarat's 2013-14 mayoral race by colluding to spearhead Liberal Party member Joshua Morris into leadership.

    On Tuesday, the same day the state government released its budget, Ballarat West MP Sharon Knight asked Dr Napthine in Parliament if he had sought to directly influence the ballot to ensure a Liberal Party member was elected as mayor of Ballarat.

    http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/2262316/premier-napthine-accused-of-choosing-ballarats-mayor/?cs=62

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 7:05 pm

  28. Dio

    I’ve heard through the loop that Rockhampton hospital is a basket case.

    by Dee on May 6, 2014 at 7:08 pm

  29. As per article linked by lizzie on previous page

    [“[That boat] has been forced back. It proves that Abbott’s policy is not successful. Their unilateral policy coerces asylum seekers, threatens them and violates their human rights — and the policy doesn’t bear fruit [because the boats keep coming] …
    “What Australia is doing now is clearly against and denies all comprehensive principles in dealing with the issue of asylum seekers. Australia is acting as if it can simply move the problem to its neighbour,” he said.
    Dr Natalegawa was speaking outside a conference that Prime Minister Tony Abbott hastily withdrew from on Friday allegedly because of embarrassment over the imminent boat return.
    However, that’s not the explanation Mr Abbott gave the Indonesians — and which was accepted by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono — that he was too busy preparing the federal budget and dealing with the Commission of Audit report.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-policy-a-failure-as-boats-keep-coming-says-indonesian-foreign-minister-marty-natalegawa-20140506-zr5q7.html#ixzz30vPezx23

    by victoria on May 6, 2014 at 7:11 pm

  30. Messi did a hamstring but he’s played most of the year. He still came second in the Balloon D’Or (to Ronaldo). He’s 26 so he’s probably at his prime.

    Dio

    Yes, and it has to be said, Messi at 80% is probably still better than most players in the world.

    I’m keen to see how he and Argentina go at this years World Cup.

    by Sir Mad Cyril on May 6, 2014 at 7:12 pm

  31. Dee

    I’ve heard through the loop that Rockhampton hospital is a basket case.

    That would explain it.

    Queensland Health is basically admitting they have a hospital-wide problem if they are sacking administrators as well as the surgeon.

    Removing the wrong kidney is just unbelievable.

    by Diogenes on May 6, 2014 at 7:13 pm

  32. Can someone explain to me why the deficit tax is being portrayed as the only broken promise worth discussing?

    Is it because the tax was the only thing leaked so far?

    Seems to me the government is going to break many promises, some of which will have a traumatic impact on people with low incomes.

    To coin a West Wing phrase, the deficit tax has indeed become “A Thing”, but for me the bigger issue is the government’s clear intention to attack many fundamental aspects of Australian life.

    by Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment on May 6, 2014 at 7:14 pm

  33. Dee

    Queensland Health is a basket case as well.

    by Diogenes on May 6, 2014 at 7:16 pm

  34. Sir Mad Cyril@502

    As to the broken promise, I thought everyone just expects new governments to ditch their promises at the first budget. It’s an Australian tradition.

    Nonsense – abbott campaigned for three years against a so called broken “promise” by Labor on the carbon tax and voters agreed with him – the total opposite of what you suggest.

    abbott actually made a major part of his last campaign about keeping his promises – and now he is breaking promises and undertakings across the board.

    He is burning political capital at both ends with his own party as well as voters. Don’t forget he hasn’t actually done much yet either – all the heavy lifting is still to come.

    His PMship is very much downhill skiing with no poles – to use a Keating expression.

    by dave on May 6, 2014 at 7:19 pm

  35. Soccer training

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HKPz3yFYjQ

    by poroti on May 6, 2014 at 7:20 pm

  36. In ICAC comes the evidence that David Sharpe from Tinkler’s Buildev paid the bill at upmarket Doyles Restaurant one New Years Eve, when Michael Gallacher and family were the guests.

    The bill was $5K.

    $5K? That’s not even the value of two quite forgettable bottles of wine. ;-)

    Serious question – are political donations tax deductible? If so, that should also be amended whether it’s $5 or $K500

    by Tom Hawkins on May 6, 2014 at 7:22 pm

  37. Sir PJ

    Can someone explain to me why the deficit tax is being portrayed as the only broken promise worth discussing?

    Because it effects the wealthy, no one in the media gives an arse about the poor.

    by mikehilliard on May 6, 2014 at 7:23 pm

  38. 516
    confessions

    briefly:

    I make no comment on the effectiveness of otherwise of the deficit tax, merely that now it’s been leaked, and leaked with details (ie $80k threshold), the govt has no choice but to handle that.

    I personally don’t see much hostility for the deficit tax, other than from partisans on either side of the fence. There seems to be more community concern about a GP co-payment, esp as Barnett has flagged charging patients who front EDs.

    I generally agree, confessions.

    I have been trying to find an accurate and up to date table showing the number of individuals earning, say, $150,000 pa or more. It’s not easy to find such a table. Suffice to say the information that is available suggests they represent less than 1% of income earners. Most derive most of their income from full-time work. (They tend not to be self-employed and almost never part-time workers). Another interesting fact to emerge is that over the last 20 years the share of the self-employed in the economy has been falling, and their incomes tend to be concentrated in the lower quintiles.

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 7:26 pm

  39. Bureaucrat admits minister Peter Garrett kept in dark over safety warnings

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-06/bureaucrat-admits-garrett-kept-in-dark-on-foil-warnings/5434584

    The RC is a very expensive witch hunt that wont find a frog with warts let along a witch.

    by Tom Hawkins on May 6, 2014 at 7:27 pm

  40. Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
    Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 4h

    The “budget crisis”: deficit according to Treasury/Finance in the independent PEFO, and what Hockey claimed in MYEFO pic.twitter.com/G1bwqNhPMh

    by zoidlord on May 6, 2014 at 7:30 pm

  41. Whilst dating from the Howard Government, no song is as relevant to Abbotts Government then this classic:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWIXZzg2KJI

    by Yesiree Bob on May 6, 2014 at 7:32 pm

  42. Sir Robert Denmore @MrDenmore

    I hope we all have now absorbed that Tony Jones will decide what democracy is and the manner in which it is exercised

    by mikehilliard on May 6, 2014 at 7:39 pm

  43. HAH!

    The home insulation royal commission has heard the Federal Environment Department withheld crucial warnings about the danger of foil insulation from then minister Peter Garrett.

    And… the bosses know best.

    The royal commission heard the briefing note to Mr Garrett said electricians wanted foil insulation banned but the industry did not, and the bureaucracy supported its continued use.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-06/bureaucrat-admits-garrett-kept-in-dark-on-foil-warnings/5434584

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 6, 2014 at 7:41 pm

  44. Tom Hawkins@538


    Bureaucrat admits minister Peter Garrett kept in dark over safety warnings


    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-06/bureaucrat-admits-garrett-kept-in-dark-on-foil-warnings/5434584

    The RC is a very expensive witch hunt that wont find a frog with warts let along a witch.

    My reaction is a big “So what?”.

    It is the states that run OH&S and if materials or practices had been found to be unsafe overseas then the state authorities should have picked it up and acted.

    by bemused on May 6, 2014 at 7:45 pm

  45. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@542

    HAH!


    The home insulation royal commission has heard the Federal Environment Department withheld crucial warnings about the danger of foil insulation from then minister Peter Garrett.


    And… the bosses know best.


    The royal commission heard the briefing note to Mr Garrett said electricians wanted foil insulation banned but the industry did not, and the bureaucracy supported its continued use.


    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-06/bureaucrat-admits-garrett-kept-in-dark-on-foil-warnings/5434584

    When will someone ask Tony RAbbott just what the bosses responsibility in sending these kids to their deaths is ?
    Or are such questions contrary to Abbotts narrative ?

    by Yesiree Bob on May 6, 2014 at 7:47 pm

  46. Don’t get sick outside of SE Queensland. I have done locums on the Qld coast and I refuse to go back.

    There is a rumour that the wrong kidney was removed in a NSW hospital 2 months ago – apparently both renal arteries arising from a common trunk.

    by Oakeshott Country on May 6, 2014 at 7:49 pm

  47. dave

    Yes, a fair point there. The difference with Abbott compared to previous governments is the fact he went so hard on Gillard’s (supposed) broken promise for so long. His no surprises shtick before the election doesn’t help either.

    To counter my own argument, I seem to remember Keating saying his first budget post the 1993 election where they didn’t deliver all the L-A-W tax cuts basically killed his chances of winning in 1996. Of course, they’d been in power for a long time by then so it may not have mattered anyway.

    by Sir Mad Cyril on May 6, 2014 at 7:51 pm

  48. Here is the thang about the “Pink Batts” RC. All the OH&S laws at the time meant that if observed none of the deaths would have occurred . Nowt to do with the Feds.

    by poroti on May 6, 2014 at 7:53 pm

  49. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Sabra Lane on 7.30 appears to be quite literally a spokesperson for the government, with a couple of ‘experts’ to provide faux balance. One of which tonight was well known glibetarian, Sinclair Davidson!

    by adrian on May 6, 2014 at 7:54 pm

  50. If Abbott wants his tax to bring in significant revenue, he will have to aim it at the highest quintile of households, who together receive about 40% of disposable incomes.

    That wouldn’t be as easy as it might sound. Most of these households have one part-time worker as well as one full-time worker and it’s very unlikely that part-time workers would have a taxable incomes of $180,000 pa. This quintile had a mean weekly equivalised disposable household income in 2010 of $1704 or $88608. The stats are not available yet, but this would probably have advanced to about $91,000 by the end of 2013. It’s interesting to note that at least some of these households qualify for Family Tax Benefits A and B, so they will in any case be affected by the budget cuts even if they are not affected by an increase in income tax.

    Abbott’s tax is needs to start to cut in well below $180,000 to have much revenue raising impact.

    by briefly on May 6, 2014 at 7:55 pm

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