Crikey



Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.

This is the latest in a polling avalanche which has followed the interruption of Easter and Anzac Day, to which Essential Research is still to be added tomorrow. Three other polls published over the past two days have produced strikingly similar results on the primary vote, from which Newspoll differs in having Labor lower and the Greens higher:

• Galaxy, for the first time adding an online panel component to its live-interview phone polling to produce an enlarged sample of 1391, has the Labor lead at 52-48, with primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 6% for Palmer United.

• A ReachTEL poll conducted on Saturday, also from a larger-than-usual sample of 4016, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, with primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition, 39.6% for Labor, 11.2% for the Greens and 6.0% for Palmer United.

• Morgan’s multi-mode face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted every weekend but compiled fortnightly, has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 according to the conventional two-party preferred method that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election, increasing to 55-45 when preferences were allocated by the respondent. The primary votes are 37.5% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 12% for the Greens and 5.5% for Palmer United.

UPDATE: And now Essential Research comes in entirely unchanged on last week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United. Questions on the deficit tax show the importance of wording in these situations – just as carbon tax questions got a more favourable response when the rationale for them was laid out, inquiry about “a temporary ‘deficit’ tax on high and middle income earners aimed at bringing the budget back to surplus” has support and opposition tied at 34%. However, 48% favour the proposition that “introducing a new ‘deficit’ tax would be a broken promise by the Abbott Government” versus 33% for “it is more important to reduce the deficit than stick to pre-election promises”.

Other findings have “management of the Australian economy” all but unchanged since a year ago, with a total good rating of 40% (up one) and total bad of 31% (down one), but with results by party support having changed beyond recognition; Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen to manage the economy by 33% to 27%; Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26); 23% very concerned about job losses, 34% somewhat concerned and 29% not at all concerned; 77% believing the gap between rich and poor to have increased over the last 10 years, with only 3% for decreased; 29% thinking their own financial situation good versus 26% for poor; “the cost of living” rated by far the economic issue of most concern (56%, with unemployment in second place on 11%).

Categories: Federal Politics 2013-

703 Responses

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  1. I’m pessimistic – the Libs are literally crapping upon the Australian public from a great height and a six point deficit is the worst it’s getting?

    No, they’re not – they’re only figuratively crapping upon the Australian public from a great height. No matter how bad it gets, they won’t be literally doing that until Abbott and Hockey are actually flinging turds from the window of A36-1.

    by caf on May 7, 2014 at 9:05 am

  2. Yes Deblonay, when I was in the states I was horrified at the gap between rich and poor. The teeming trailer park city outside Chicago was eye opening…It took about half an hour to pass it on the train, it was so large…think of all those people unable to afford a roof over their heads..

    But not only was there a gap between rich and poor, the gap was in many cases racial. The people serving in shops or restaurants or toilets’living’ on minimum wage or tips were all non Anglo..This is in NYC.

    My visit to the US was revelatory…seeing Native Americans bathing in the drains was a shock , any suggestion we should take the US as a blueprint for social policy is outrageous.

    by liyana on May 7, 2014 at 11:21 am

  3. The budget will be interesting. I know Abbott and Hockey are babes in the woods regarding finances and government, but I gamble they are using the Howard approach. Make dire announcements leading up to the budget, then reduce the measures on the night in an effort to convince the public that they are nice guys after all. Be interesting to see how gullible the public are… There again, there is no accounting for the stupidity of some politicians.

    by Tom on May 7, 2014 at 4:43 pm

  4. How about the government maintain services and the tax cuts by having a price on emission equivalents of CO2? ;-)

    by Disasterboy on May 8, 2014 at 3:28 am

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