tip off

BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

A pre-budget polling slump for the Coalition expands Labor’s poll aggregate lead, crediting them with an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A barren spell for polling has ended with a vengeance over the past week, with results emerging from Newspoll, Galaxy, ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential – everyone indeed except Nielsen, who are presumably due next week. Each of the five polls sang from the same song sheet, and poll aggregation being the name of the game here, the BludgerTrack results on the sidebar do the same. On the primary vote, the Coalition maintains its downward trend while Labor perks up after a period in which it lost market share to the Greens. The Greens continue to fade after their Nielsen-driven peak of three weeks ago, but remain above the single-digit level they typically recorded throughout 2013. The big mover apart from Labor this week is Palmer United, which is at its highest level since December.

On the seat projection, Labor emerges in majority territory after gaining one each in New South Wales and Victoria and another three on an already hard-to-credit result in Queensland, for which I now have ten consecutive data points showing Labor with a two-party preferred, something it rarely enjoys in Queensland historically. Those who observe BludgerTrack closely will be aware that the “territories” result – which, it should go without saying, is based on a rather shallow pool of data – has long shown curiously strong readings for the Coalition. I’ve now addressed this with a bias correction measure, with a rather dramatic effect. This is a little crude methodologically, but I’m more confident in the result as it stands now, which closely reflects the national swing.

Of the many polls this week, only Newspoll furnishes useable results for the leadership tracking, and being the only leadership result of any kind for the past three weeks, the present BludgerTrack reading reflects it very closely. The result shows a sudden slump in Tony Abbott’s net approval, while Bill Shorten’s continues to settle in to the mediocre but by no means disastrous territory he has inhabited since the air went out of his honeymoon ratings over summer. Preferred prime minister remains on its steadily narrowing trajectory.

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  • 51
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    @AndrewBGreene: Dumped frontbencher John Cobb steps up criticism of deficit tax: if you make promises then obviously you should adhere to them, fact of life

  • 52
    dave
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 9:55 am | Permalink

    Treasurer Joe Hockey says PPL levy shows coalition never promised no new taxes in Gov

    Hopefully the tories stick to this line – it will damage them more and it will be of their own doing.

    Voters are convinced they were told otherwise and there is so much on the record about it.

  • 53
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    Bill Shorten Presser within next 20 minutesJoe O Brien informs

  • 54
    Darn
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 7:23 am | PERMALINK
    Is Bill Shorten the messiah ? lol

    Has mark Latham come in from the cold ?

    Is ESJ going to continue pretending she is not a Liberal troll?

  • 55
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    More from Hockey

    Mr Hockey has told the Australian Financial Review the belief that the Coalition never promised new taxes is "wrong".

    "We went to the last election promising to introduce a levy for PPL so claims that we said we would never introduce new taxes are just wrong," he said.

    "We actually went to the last election with a written policy saying we were introducing the 1.5 per cent levy for PPL."

    Hilarious. You couldn’t make this crap up.

  • 56
    confessions
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    madcyril:

    That’s pretty woeful even by for Hockey.

  • 57
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    Abbott wants to build rods only. Great way to keep big oil happy.

  • 58
    Narns
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:04 am | Permalink

    Oh man, O’Dwyer was hopeless on ABC Breakfast this morning. Still, it made me revisit this, which is never a bad thing:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RS3dL1L4gTo

  • 59
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    Just heard Fran Kelly with Jon Faine. She said that Teresa Gambaro’s statement re the deficit levy is a red flag for the govt. Jon faine made the comment that MTurnbull is being very affable at present. “Mark my words”. The suggestion being that Turnbull still has leadership ambitions.
    Also apparently JGillard has been asked to lawyer up as she will be called to the RC to answer questions re the AWU “slush fund” According to Kelly, the govt have an axe to grind with JGillard.

  • 60
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    Also apparently Niki Savva had a go in her column today about Peta Credlin

  • 61
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    @TheAusInstitute: MYTH: Aust. govt is big spending. Govt. spending 4th lowest in OECD #PeoplesCOA http://t.co/VgNZKuJLkA

  • 62
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:06 am | Permalink

    24 NSW Parliament Live

  • 63
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    confessions,

    Yes, it just sounds weak and pathetic in my opinion.

  • 64
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    Robertson introducing reform bill

  • 65
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: A Bill is being introduced in #NSW that will force MP’s to declare the financial interest of spouses and dependents every month”

  • 66
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    Unhappily, when I turned on ABC News last night, I caught part of a story on the shark cull in WA. Speaking as someone who cares for and about animals, I found the footage of sharks on drum lines seriously confronting, and began to experience the physiological responses associated (for me) with outrage and profound sadness. The consequences of the ignorant, bloody minded, self-serving cruelty of it all was in plain view. It was also clear that the program was an utter failure. Not one Great White had been trapped (given it’s a protected species, I am glad of that), and since control of the numbers of this species were the official warrant for this program, by definition, the programs has failed. People are at just as much of a tiny risk of being attacked by a Great White. Barnett is clearly lying in saying the program was a success.

    What is even more galling was that the WA government has tried to prevent activists releasing injured sharks, and likewise demanded that they surrender video footage on pain of being charged with criminal obstruction. Clearly, the Barnett regime, despite its boasting of success, wants, like Morrison on asylum seekers, to hide from the public the pointless cruelty he is inflicting, and to prevent them knowing the depth of commitment and courage some people bear towards the integrity of the marine environment. Those pictures are harming them and apparently, in their view, free speech must yield to regime service.

    Truly, there is no profanity which lies beyond the whim of contemporary governance.

  • 67
    mari
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/jobless-rate-tipped-rise-002408092.html Another nail if LNP coffin?

  • 68
    dave
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    I’m sure there are many more quotes around as well -

    Here's The Moment Tony Abbott Promised No New Taxes Before The Last Election

    Here’s the quote:

    It will be a modest cut. We took a 1.5 percent cut to the last election.

    There will be a modest cut that we’re taking forward at the next election.

    What you’ll get under us are tax cuts without new taxes.

    What you’re getting under Labor are tax cuts that are funded by new taxes and a tax cut that’s paid for with a tax increase. It’s not a real cut, it’s a con.

    So abbott admits there he position is a con.

    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/heres-the-moment-tony-abbott-promised-no-new-taxes-before-the-last-election-2014-4

  • 69
    dave
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    he = his

  • 70
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Also jon faine mentioned the Mathias Cormann presser yesterday. Where Cormann said wtte “to trust them”. Faine reckons that those words actually have the reverse affect on voters

  • 71
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    Oops effect

  • 72
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    “@brigidglanville: The media room is very quiet at #icac today. @Kate_McClymont and @MWhitbourn not here as Fairfax reporters on strike.”

  • 73
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    @Peter_F_Ryan: NAB boss Cameron Clyne on whether there’s a budget crisis: “It’s not the picture that I see & certainly not the picture overseas people see

  • 74
    Simon Katich
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    BK – did you hear Briggs on 891 radio this morning. Talk about an easy ride.

    Bemused – re the crazy talk last night. JG’s qualities as leader I will not comment on, but her qualities on camera and in parliament I miss (and I believe is missing in the ALP at present).

    As for RexD saying Shorten shouldnt need time to grow into the job…..does anyone remember how dorky and bumbling Howard was in most of his first term as PM (his first meeting with the Queen comes to mind)?

  • 75
    Simon Katich
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    I have to stop listening to 891 radio in the morning. Giving me the cranky shakes.

  • 76
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    @Simon_Cullen: RT @KJBar: Government to terminate the ABC operated Australia Network. Story by @andrewprobyn http://t.co/MCywwkGUIL

  • 77
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    @76

    Giving Fox News a total Monopoly in AU.

  • 78
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    SHY Presser now

  • 79
    dave
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    guytaur@76

    @Simon_Cullen: RT @KJBar: Government to terminate the ABC operated Australia Network. Story by @andrewprobyn http://t.co/MCywwkGUIL

    Hopefully the ABC will do this -

    The Government believes that if the ABC wants to continue broadcasting into the 44 nations that receive Australia Network it could lift the geo-block that prevents ABC24 being watched from overseas.

  • 80
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    zoid

    Yes directly against the national interest given Australia Network deal delivering broadcast access throughout China

  • 81
    Simon Katich
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:36 am | Permalink

    Fran,
    yesterdays conversation about language reminded me of something….
    My highschool English grades were terrible (as I am sure you can guess). They were so bad that at the end of year 12 the English teacher recommended I take up journalism. :-)

  • 82
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    Shorten presser now

  • 83
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    Bill Shorten presser now

  • 84
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: Shorten: If it sounds like a tax, if it looks like a tax, it is a tax increase #budget #auspol”

  • 85
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: Shorten: We don’t need a new toll on existing roads, that goes to families’ cost of living #budget #WestConnex #auspol”

  • 86
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:45 am | Permalink

    “@ShoebridgeMLC: Did he disclose? @sarahgerathy: #ICAC hears the Commission of Audit Chairman Tony Sheperd was among the Free Enterprise Foundation’s donors.”

  • 87
    bemused
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    Simon Katich@74

    BK – did you hear Briggs on 891 radio this morning. Talk about an easy ride.

    Bemused – re the crazy talk last night. JG’s qualities as leader I will not comment on, but her qualities on camera and in parliament I miss (and I believe is missing in the ALP at present).

    As for RexD saying Shorten shouldnt need time to grow into the job…..does anyone remember how dorky and bumbling Howard was in most of his first term as PM (his first meeting with the Queen comes to mind)?

    Yes, I remember how dorky and bumbling Howard was, but Abbott is now doing his best to make Howard look like a polished performer in comparison.

    Abbott is just an embarrassment whenever he gets out of the country or meets any foreign leader here.

  • 88
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:48 am | Permalink

    Lol ABC presenter just said that Abbott is in Melbourne today, but it is not expected he will be speaking to the media today

  • 89
    Peter of Marino
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    Simon Katich @ 75

    I have to stop listening to 891 radio in the morning. Giving me the cranky shakes.

    My feelings too. Matt and Dave are to busy being partisan smart asses all the time.However it did point out that Briggs is an empathy free zone.

  • 90
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    jeffemu

    O’Bigmouth.

    Just catching up – love it!

  • 91
    BH
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    Muswellbrook Council had raised concerns about possible impacts from the discharged water on downstream agriculture and horse studs.

    But the Planning Assessment Commission found the existing regulatory scheme controlling saline water releases from Hunter coal mines would be sufficient to protect the river.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-08/mangoola-mine-expansion-gets-green-light-from-pac/5437926

    This is serious stuff if the regulations aren’t strong enough. I guess Fitzgibbon is cheering.

    I saw Hockey’s eyesore (the Bungendore windfarm) last Thursday for the first time. The sky was blue, the grass green and the white sails made for a majestic sight. What on earth is Hockey on? Probably loves the Musswellbrook and surrounding devestation.

  • 92
    Peter of Marino
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 11:01 am | Permalink

    victoria @ 88

    Lol ABC presenter just said that Abbott is in Melbourne today, but it is not expected he will be speaking to the media today

    Could :monkey: be lured out of hiding with a hi viz vest and a bunch of wingers ?

  • 93
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 11:03 am | Permalink

    @billshortenmp: Last may Tony Abbott promised no new taxes – this may, he’s increasing taxes! RT to remind him of his promises https://t.co/1b0c38cmjf

  • 94
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    “@farrm51: To sum up speculation: PM Abbott will raise taxes to pay for new roads, & increase petrol excise to make it more expensive to drive on them”

  • 95
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 11:13 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    What a perfect line for Shorten to go with!!

  • 96
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 11:17 am | Permalink

    “@SabraLane: “The Abbott government’s case for a debt tax is equivalent to a child’s fairy tale” – @CliveFPalmer”

  • 97
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    victoria

    Yes Shorten is doing well. Repeating that line for the next two years will bring One Term Tony in my view

  • 98
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    Latika Bourke on ABC24 now confirming that the increase in fuel excise will be included in the budget

  • 99
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    @ABCNews24: .@latikambourke confirms that an increase in the fuel excise will be included in next week’s #budget. She joins us http://t.co/TTkTJ5G5Ba

  • 100
    victoria
    Posted Thursday, May 8, 2014 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    Latika does not know the increase or whether it is temporary

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