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BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

A pre-budget polling slump for the Coalition expands Labor's poll aggregate lead, crediting them with an absolute majority on the seat projection.

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A barren spell for polling has ended with a vengeance over the past week, with results emerging from Newspoll, Galaxy, ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential – everyone indeed except Nielsen, who are presumably due next week. Each of the five polls sang from the same song sheet, and poll aggregation being the name of the game here, the BludgerTrack results on the sidebar do the same. On the primary vote, the Coalition maintains its downward trend while Labor perks up after a period in which it lost market share to the Greens. The Greens continue to fade after their Nielsen-driven peak of three weeks ago, but remain above the single-digit level they typically recorded throughout 2013. The big mover apart from Labor this week is Palmer United, which is at its highest level since December.

On the seat projection, Labor emerges in majority territory after gaining one each in New South Wales and Victoria and another three on an already hard-to-credit result in Queensland, for which I now have ten consecutive data points showing Labor with a two-party preferred, something it rarely enjoys in Queensland historically. Those who observe BludgerTrack closely will be aware that the “territories” result – which, it should go without saying, is based on a rather shallow pool of data – has long shown curiously strong readings for the Coalition. I’ve now addressed this with a bias correction measure, with a rather dramatic effect. This is a little crude methodologically, but I’m more confident in the result as it stands now, which closely reflects the national swing.

Of the many polls this week, only Newspoll furnishes useable results for the leadership tracking, and being the only leadership result of any kind for the past three weeks, the present BludgerTrack reading reflects it very closely. The result shows a sudden slump in Tony Abbott’s net approval, while Bill Shorten’s continues to settle in to the mediocre but by no means disastrous territory he has inhabited since the air went out of his honeymoon ratings over summer. Preferred prime minister remains on its steadily narrowing trajectory.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1514 comments

1,514 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

  1. Mr Squiggle Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 10:00 pm @ 1458

    why does Jo Hockey look like he’s been punched on the left side of his face too many times?

    You normally throw a hook with your lead hand don’t you? So a southpaw would normally throw a right hook.

    Isn’t Tony left handed?

  2. Mr Pyne has now been tasked with managing all communications with the mining magnate Clive Palmer

    Wow. They really don’t want to pass anything in the Senate do they?

  3. B.C.@1501

    Mr Squiggle Posted Friday, May 9, 2014 at 10:00 pm @ 1458


    why does Jo Hockey look like he’s been punched on the left side of his face too many times?


    You normally throw a hook with your lead hand don’t you? So a southpaw would normally throw a right hook.

    Isn’t Tony left handed?

    So that’s what made him so dopey?

    In all honesty, I can’t recall a treasurer or shadow treasurer who even came close to appearing so dumb.

  4. bemused
    [In all honesty, I can’t recall a treasurer or shadow treasurer who even came close to appearing so dumb.]

    Except for Howard, and look where he ended up.

  5. kezza2@1506

    bemused


    In all honesty, I can’t recall a treasurer or shadow treasurer who even came close to appearing so dumb.


    Except for Howard, and look where he ended up.

    I think Howard was able to put on a more convincing front and appear he had some vague inkling of what he was doing.

    Of course the substance was different.

  6. Mark Kenny in the Fairfax ReachTEL article.
    [The Greens party remains around its election mark of 11 per cent]
    Greens at election – 8.7%

  7. Mike Carlton’s column is a cracker this week, but then he has so much material to work with!

    ICAC gets a run…with the ‘Mike Carlton Media Forum’ with it’s Silver, Gold and Platinum memberships.
    [GOLD (Annual donation $100,000): In addition to the Silver privileges, you will be invited to six luncheons or dinners over any one year; a Hunter Valley wine tasting weekend with popular Paul Nicolaou of the Australian Hotels Association; and the offer of front-row seating at the Allphones Arena for September’s return heavyweight title fight between gambling mogul James Packer and television executive David Gyngell.]
    ….
    [Naturally, your membership of the Carlton Forum will be kept entirely confidential. Should you desire, discreet arrangements for membership contributions may be made through the Banque Gnome Zurich et St Vincent/Grenadines de Caraïbes. I look forward to your early affirmative reply.
    Sincerely,
    Bilal Obeid AO,
    Executive Chairman.]
    And of course the budget chaos gets a run…
    [By my count there will be three new taxes: the “levy” on the rich ; a “co-payment” to visit the doctor ; and a new slug in fees and HECS for most tertiary students. Plus, quite likely, a rise in fuel excise which will hit you at the petrol pump.

    As ever, Abbott will try to bluster his way through. “I’m going to be able to look people in the eye on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and say we are all in this together, we are all doing our bit,” he droned this week.

    People will look him in the eye right back and know him for the liar that he is.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-to-join-the-mike-carlton-forum-20140508-zr6yr.html#ixzz31EHNSHTx

  8. Just got a leak of part of Hockey’s budget speech.

    “For those concerned about the cost of the $6 co-payment for doctor visits might I remind you all that $6 is just three or four puffs on a Montecristo Grand Corona”