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Federal Politics 2013-

May 13, 2014

Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Essential Research result finds little change on voting behaviour, while the monthly leadership ratings are the first from any pollster to show Bill Shorten leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.

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The latest weekly result from Essential Research, a rolling average of polling conducted over the past fortnight, shows little change on last week with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39% and the Greens down one to 9%, while the Coalition and Palmer United are steady on 40% and 5% and Labor’s two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 52-48. The poll also includes the monthly personal ratings, which are the first such results from any pollster showing Bill Shorten leading Tony Abbott on preferred prime minister, the latter’s lead of 42-32 last month crashing to a deficit of 37-36. This is down to a slump in Abbott’s ratings, his approval down six to 35% and disapproval up eight to 55%, with Shorten’s ratings little changed at 35% approval (up one) and 37% disapproval (down one).

In other questions, the poll comprehensively gauged opinion the Commission of Audit’s recommendations, of which three have a positive net approval: university students repaying HELP debt once they earn minimum wage, relocation by unemployed young people to areas of high unemployment to retain access to benefits, and Youth Allowance rather than Newstart for those under 25. The least popular measures were raising the retirement age and increasing interest rates on HELP debts. Respondents thought the Coalition heavily favoured the rich (54%) over the poor (5%) and the average Australian (22%), while tending to place Labor in the middle, with 34% for the average Australian, 16% for the rich and 22% for the poor. The poll found broad awareness that Australia’s national debt was lower than other developed countries (45% believing it lower, 22% higher), and a belief that large companies and high-income earners paid too little tax and small businesses and low-income earners too much.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2295 comments

2,295 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

  1. Bushfire Bill

    Heydon rejects communications between Blewitt and Wilson that show they were quite pally right up to 2010.

  2. confessions

    Wow those approval ratings are shocking for Abbott. How much longer until the disapproval becomes entrenched to the point he can’t recover?

  3. Bushfire Bill

    Michael Smith’s name comes up!

    VERY interesting!

  4. zoidlord

    Some good questions regarding debt level to other countries.

    I’ll repost this:

    Retweeted by sortius
    Ketan Joshi ‏@KetanJ0 4m

    “Keeping carbon price and scrapping Direct Action are most favoured options, according to ‘alternative budget’ tool” http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/13/budget-2014-guardian-readers-have-their-say-on-reducing-the-deficit

    & This:

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/whats-driving-the-budget-it-isnt-newstart-family-or-disability-benefits-20140512-zraet.html#ixzz31YM6qlaT

  5. WeWantPaul

    So the union RC is a totally biased political witch-hunt – predictable.

  6. shellbell

    [“@FarrellPF: Strange events at union Royal Commission. Blewitt asked to wait outside while relevance of evidence being considered, but feed still live.”]

    Nothing strange about it. A witness is ordinarily excluded when there is argument about the relevance of important questions or documents so the witness is not tipped off as to where the cross-examiner is coming from.

  7. guytaur

    Abbott admits broken promise on education. Oops

  8. Bushfire Bill

    Blewitt admitting he’s had extensive conversations with Michael Smith and Nowicky (?) re. his evidence.

    More than 10, less than 100. Might be a hundred, actually.

  9. Sir sustainable future

    [Heydon rejects communications between Blewitt and Wilson that show they were quite pally right up to 2010.]

    that is outrageous and shows this is a star chamber rather than a genuine inquiry/royal commission. Blewitt’s character and reliability as a witness are key given it is his word against several others. if a commissioner protects him than the farce that the RC is if exposed very early on. On election, labor should announce a RC into politically motivated RCs 🙂

  10. victoria

    BB

    Not surprised

  11. confessions

    [So the union RC is a totally biased political witch-hunt – predictable.]

    Of course. It was always going to be.

  12. WeWantPaul

    [Nothing strange about it. A witness is ordinarily excluded when there is argument about the relevance of important questions or documents so the witness is not tipped off as to where the cross-examiner is coming from.
    ]

    I think the odd bit was having a live feed effectively making the exclusion pointless

  13. briefly

    From the Essential poll…

    [In other questions, the poll comprehensively gauged opinion the Commission of Audit’s recommendations, of which three have a positive net approval: university students repaying HELP debt once they earn minimum wage, relocation by unemployed young people to areas of high unemployment to retain access to benefits, and Youth Allowance rather than Newstart for those under 25.]

    Young people get a crap deal from our system – an absolutely crap deal. Those of us of my generation should take a long hard look at ourselves. We are content to shortchange the young while granting ourselves preferment wherever possible. On the most arbitrary of grounds – the year of their birth – they are expected to work harder for less, to pay more tax and to accept a lesser standard of social support than the rest of us. This is a dismal double standard. It is also a glimpse into the future that lies ahead in a Tory social framework – the systematic exclusion of whoever happens to be easy to pick on at the time.

  14. Boerwar

    The interrogation of Blewitt is fascinating stuff.

  15. Boerwar

    LOL
    Blewitt reckons he is deaf in his left ear.

  16. WeWantPaul

    [I think the odd bit was having a live feed effectively making the exclusion pointless
    ]

    I think some here were predicting Heydon would bring a wisdom and fairness to his role. Whereas my view is that a wise fair person would not have touched either the batts or unions RC with a 10 foot barge poll.

  17. zoidlord

    I wonder if the claim of Broadening the GST is a one off $74 billion?

  18. briefly

    From the previous link…

    [1530
    Fran Barlow

    briefly @1323

    And the Greens should oppose the excise measures on the same basis.

    I disagree. The excises measures are different, in that they were arbitrarily abolished when Howard saw petrol prices as “a barbecue stopper”. Along with many others, we have persistently called for indexation to be restored.]

    Excise is only nominally a tax on road use and on fuel. But it’s actually a tax on commuters and on the cost of producing goods and services. It can be compared with payroll tax, which looks like a tax on employment but is actually paid for by higher prices, lower production and lower economic welfare, especially for consumers of staple goods and services. Exactly the same can be said of excise.

    Excise is regressive – mostly, it cannot be avoided by workers and commuters. But it can and will be passed on by those businesses that have enough pricing power. Because fuel use is ubiquitous in the economy, excise also taxes those goods and services that are otherwise exempt from sales tax – food, education and health services.

    I am all in favour of high taxes on tobacco and alcohol. Rather than taxing fuel, I would prefer taxes on gaming, which is a destructive pursuit that delivers absolutely no economic welfare whatsoever.

  19. Bushfire Bill

    Blewitt accusing Wilson of lying about the rubber stamp signature. Wilson says he never authorised Blewitt to use his signature for any reason.

  20. Bushfire Bill

    Blewitt wants Wilson’s barrister to speak up because he is deafish.

    It’s giving her an excuse to shout at him.

  21. Bushfire Bill

    Seems Blewitt may have changed the address on the bank statements from Wilson’s to his own, using Wilson’s rubber stamped signature.

    Curious.

  22. shellbell

    I doubt the live feed was to Blewitt

  23. Boerwar

    BB

    To the best of his recollection he cannot recall receiving a stream of statements sent to his address…

    Getting skewered.

  24. shellbell

    [Koelma laughed ..]

    Laughing is best reserved for when viewing Wipeout on the Comedy Channel, not ICAC when you are giving evidence.

  25. Boerwar

    Recollection issues starting to spring up like mushrooms after an Autumn rain.

  26. ruawake

    Bronnie forgets the QT order yet again.

  27. Boerwar

    100% contradiction in evidence is never a good look.

  28. Tom Hawkins

    Where can I find the live feed to Blewitt’s ordeal?

  29. sceptic

    Blewitt admits existence of emails with Smith & Nowicki… should be a hoot when Heydon asked the RC for these…& the RC doesn’t have them… why NOT?

    No due diligence ?

    Heydon… getting very shirty!!!Blewitt is the RC witness & Wilson gave him the Dorthy Dix run yesterday… today Heydon how to do forensic questioning

    RC is off to the worst possible start

  30. Bushfire Bill

    She points out that transactions on the account continue long after both Wilson and Blewitt left the union.

    Blewitt now says they remained friends.

    Wilson’s barrister reminds him that he was worried about losing his job if he didn’t comply with Wilson’s instructions. But what about when he didn’t HAVE a job?

    So he was scared of Wilson BEFORE he left the union, but mates with him afterwards.

    And then when Wilson threatened to interfere with his pension, Blewitt kept on…. ah forget it. It’s a tissue of lies.

  31. shellbell

    [I think some here were predicting Heydon would bring a wisdom and fairness to his role.]

    Yes, he will probably will across the whole hearing. Focussing on admission of evidence points is normally unproductive in assessing the fairness of anything.

  32. Boerwar

    A lot of slip sliding being halted in its tracks.

  33. sceptic

    Blewitt …. Irritable bowel syndrome!!

    Maybe that will be Abbotts problem after this

  34. Bushfire Bill

    Blewitt: “It was twenty plus years ago. Would YOU remember 20 years back?”

    Oh shit…

  35. Boerwar

    I am not sure who the questioner is but she Mr Blewitt is not enjoying his various petards.

  36. mexicanbeemer

    The Greens opposition to the debt tax is bizarre

  37. Boerwar

    BB

    [Blewitt: “It was twenty plus years ago. Would YOU remember 20 years back?”

    Oh shit…]

    To which her reply was, ‘I would if someone was blackmailing me.’

    Ripper come back.

  38. Bushfire Bill

    “Were you ALWAYS frightened of Wilson?”

    “Depends on your definition of ‘frightened'”

    “So you were’t frightened?”

    “He had a hold over me.”

  39. guytaur

    Abbott losing big time.

  40. Bushfire Bill

    Blewitt brings up yesterday’s biffo, says that’s a reason to be frightened of Wilson.

    Neat.

  41. Boerwar

    She skewers Heydon…

    Who is she?

  42. Boerwar

    Another can’t recall.

  43. ruawake

    Abbott is getting more angry as each question is asked, he will blow a fuse before too long.

  44. guytaur

    euawake

    Its starting to dawn that people are not buying the BS. May have seen Essential

  45. Boerwar

    LOL…

    “‘I am not guilty of an offense’.

    Was that your honest belief?

    No… Blewitt replies…

    Skewered yet again.

  46. guytaur

    ruawake

    Sorry about typo

  47. dave

    [ Who is she? ]

    Smart cookie, no nonsense.