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Federal Politics 2013-

May 13, 2014

Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Essential Research result finds little change on voting behaviour, while the monthly leadership ratings are the first from any pollster to show Bill Shorten leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.

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The latest weekly result from Essential Research, a rolling average of polling conducted over the past fortnight, shows little change on last week with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39% and the Greens down one to 9%, while the Coalition and Palmer United are steady on 40% and 5% and Labor’s two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 52-48. The poll also includes the monthly personal ratings, which are the first such results from any pollster showing Bill Shorten leading Tony Abbott on preferred prime minister, the latter’s lead of 42-32 last month crashing to a deficit of 37-36. This is down to a slump in Abbott’s ratings, his approval down six to 35% and disapproval up eight to 55%, with Shorten’s ratings little changed at 35% approval (up one) and 37% disapproval (down one).

In other questions, the poll comprehensively gauged opinion the Commission of Audit’s recommendations, of which three have a positive net approval: university students repaying HELP debt once they earn minimum wage, relocation by unemployed young people to areas of high unemployment to retain access to benefits, and Youth Allowance rather than Newstart for those under 25. The least popular measures were raising the retirement age and increasing interest rates on HELP debts. Respondents thought the Coalition heavily favoured the rich (54%) over the poor (5%) and the average Australian (22%), while tending to place Labor in the middle, with 34% for the average Australian, 16% for the rich and 22% for the poor. The poll found broad awareness that Australia’s national debt was lower than other developed countries (45% believing it lower, 22% higher), and a belief that large companies and high-income earners paid too little tax and small businesses and low-income earners too much.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2295 comments

2,295 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

  1. @Briefly/2249

    It does not matter, a breakdown in Government is what needed to wake up the Government.

    Coalition Senators tried to shut down NBN Committee is another example.

    At what price are you willing to ‘defend them’?

  2. 2249

    The House can send legislation to the Senate, and if it is twice rejected (there is not much of an issue, except with regulation disallowal, if the Senate does not twice reject legislation), a DD can be called.

  3. [2250
    Tom the first and best

    The current is government toxic.]

    Sure they are. They are reprehensible. And the way they’re going they have poisoned their own well. They look very vulnerable. Their bills will be rejected…and then what? What does this Government mean then? They will have to spend 2 desultory years waiting to be thrashed, unable to enact their program of deceit, destruction and division.

    They have to win now…and they face almost certain defeat. A largely self-inflicted defeat. If Abbott and Hockey are unable to get this budget through the Parliament, the LNP will probably dump them both.

  4. Tom@2252

    A DD is a different thing, though. It is one of many options the PM has if they cannot get their legislation passed.

    Blocking supply means a government such as this one, which undoubtedly won a House majority last time, cannot function. Also, the current Senate is that fromthe 2007 and 2010 elections… the Senate from this election has not been sworn in yet.

  5. http://delimiter.com.au/2014/05/14/turnbull-taints-budget-nbn-cost-lie/

    “It’s absolutely outrageous that Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has subverted the Federal Budget process to broadcast severely misleading statements regarding the National Broadband Network’s financials.”

    “With this in mind, Australians are very entitled to ask: Why is the Coalition not focusing on the option that would deliver us significantly better value for money? Why buy a second-hand 1979 Toyota Corolla when we could get a Tesla Model S for only a little bit more, and only a little later? Seems like basic common sense to me.”

  6. Christ!

    Simon Benson has been eating his Wheeties, re the Pinl Batts RoyalCommission…

    [TRUTH IS A CASUALTY OF DUMB STRATEGY Simon Benson comment

    THE royal commission into the pink batts disaster has turned into a North Korean show trial.

    The image of a former prime minister in a witness box was bad enough.

    The fact he was banned from telling the entire sordid story of a bungled policy that killed four people was a disgrace.

    The Abbott government is as culpable now as is Labor, for denying families the truth. It broke a century of tradition by releasing confidential cabinet documents in its attempt to damage the former Rudd/GiIlard cabinet, and any of those remaining now in opposition.

    But now it wants to decide which bits of it the rest of us get to see.

    The government’s lawyer tried to suggest that at no time in history had a former prime minister sought to reveal cabinet secrets.

    The hypocrisy.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/kevin-rudd-batts-away-the-insulation-fiasco-blame-it-was-all-peter-garrett-and-mark-arbibs-fault-he-says/story-fni0xqrc-1226918083431 ]

    Gotta say I’m gob-smacked at this.

    For Benson to go all out against the Abbott government is unprecedented.

  7. [2252
    Tom the first and best

    2249

    The House can send legislation to the Senate, and if it is twice rejected (there is not much of an issue, except with regulation disallowal, if the Senate does not twice reject legislation), a DD can be called.]

    Sure, but in this case the House must also go to an election. Senators have a good deal more power than MHR’s. They have to use it carefully or they will undermine the role of the House and the whole thing may come undone. This was the force behind Gough’s argument. It was valid in 1975 and it’s valid today too.

  8. Negotiating all of the budget measures through the Senate will not happen. PPL wont.

    However, will be interesting to see how things are structured. Does anyone know whats going to be so embedded that it can only be stopped by blocking supply, and what can be dealt with individually out of the nasties in this budget??

  9. http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2014/05/government-officially-implementing-idiotic-cyber-commissioner/

    “he government confirmed as part of the 2014-15 Federal Budget that the Children’s e-Safety Commissioner would be established from next year.”

    “The role of the government’s new Net Nanny would be to develop a system whereby bullying material “targeted at Australian children” would be taken down quickly from sites like Facebook, Google+ and Twitter.”

    I thought they were ok with everyone being a bigot?

  10. Having just seen Vilma and Laurie Oakes, and the general reception of this disastrous budget shambles (dishonest, nasty), Im calling it now…

    ONE TERM.

    Not even including the word “Tony”, as he’d be lucky to do quite that well.

  11. [Having just seen Vilma and Laurie Oakes, and the general reception of this disastrous budget shambles (dishonest, nasty), Im calling it now…

    ONE TERM.]
    Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There is an insane amount of work to do to ensure that.

    We already know what the Coalition’s election campaign will be. They will say if you vote Labor you will be voting for more debt and deficit.

    It will take a lot of work to convince voters that is not the case and that the Coalition is destroying the social fabric of the country.

  12. [http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/this-time-chinese-property-will-bust/

    Late yesterday China released its April economic data and the tale it tells of the property sector is of concern. New starts contracted 15% year on year (vs. -21.9% in March), property sales fell 14.3% year on year (vs. -7.5% in March); and land sales fell 20.5% year on year (vs. -16.9% in March).]

    Hockey’s budget is partly a bet on strong net export growth, in turn a bet on iron ore and coal sales to China. The China steel industry is heavily reliant on the construction industry – especially housing.

    It looks like Hockey’s budget gamble is already in trouble…

  13. [2259
    imacca]

    As above, Supply bills may only deal with Supply, tax bills with tax measures, excise bills with excise measures…etc.

  14. [It looks like Hockey’s budget gamble is already in trouble…]
    Giving the RBA $9 billion looks like a bad move too, because today the AUD$ passed US$0.94.

  15. [2262
    ShowsOn
    Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There is an insane amount of work to do to ensure that.

    We already know what the Coalition’s election campaign will be. They will say if you vote Labor you will be voting for more debt and deficit.

    It will take a lot of work to convince voters that is not the case and that the Coalition is destroying the social fabric of the country.]

    Sure, but the LNP have done more to bring about their electoral defeat in the last few weeks than Labor might have managed in 5 years.

  16. [2265
    ShowsOn

    It looks like Hockey’s budget gamble is already in trouble…

    Giving the RBA $9 billion looks like a bad move too, because today the AUD$ passed US$0.94.]

    The $9 bill was done to make the deficit look worse than it was…another deceit that has cost the taxpayer…

  17. [It will take a lot of work to convince voters that is not the case and that the Coalition is destroying the social fabric of the country.]

    The voters are already getting a glimpse of that with the release of the fudget (not a mis-spelling).

    Once people stop listening to Abbott, as they are starting to do, he’s toast. No amount of Murdoch campaigning, spin, lies, or pork barrelling is going to change their minds.

    The next set of polls are going to shape the next two and a bit years.

  18. 2272

    That is virtually the same article that is in today`s Guardian.

    Pilger treats everything the USA does and has done since 1945 as evil and anyone who opposes it as good. This is not the reality. The USA has done a lot of bad things, however the Russians are worse than the USA. The USA`s commitment to human rights has varied, from bad to okay, over the years. The Russians have consistently not cared about human rights.

  19. [The last fed opposition to block supply won in a landslide. Just sayin’.]
    The Coalition was the government at that election.

  20. @ ShowsOn 2278

    A caretaker government, however, formed on the condition that it would immediately call for a double dissolution election.

  21. [The last fed opposition to block supply won in a landslide. Just sayin’.]

    Only because the Governor-General dismissed the government. Do you seriously think Cosgrove is going to sack Abbott? If Kerr had not acted, Fraser would have had to back down. (That’s WHY Kerr acted.)

    As soon as Labor says it will vote to block supply, reversing nearly 40 years of Labor policy, THAT will become the issue, not the content of the budget.

  22. @ Psephos 2280

    I’m sorry, but as you want the vulnerable of the public to suffer and die to win an argument, your opinion is hilarious invalid.

  23. @ zoidlord 2283

    He explicitly said that Labor should let this travesty pass to teach the public a lesson about voting without using their brains.

    Nevermind that the poor and unemployed will die as a direct result of these policies securing passage.

  24. I want the people of Australia to learn to understand and appreciate their political decisions too, but Psephos’ suggestion is just callous, petty and reckless.

  25. I’ve had a closer look at the Morgan Poll results on the reactions to the budget.

    Very interesting.

    Firstly the rate of negative reaction to the budget for COALition voters is very high at 72% pre-budget and 76% post budget.
    I wonder how many, if any, will change parties?

    Secondly, the number of people overall who think they will NOT benefit from the COALition budget is a very high majority, probably around 85% [it’s a bit hard to collate %s without knowing the party base numbers].

    So the fear generated pre budget changed only very little after the event and after the media had done their filtering trick – for all voters, Green, ALP, COAL and Other.
    The media, thus far anyway, has not softened the perception of the public to the budget.

    And ‘Others’ is interesting.
    Like ALP supporters, more than 90% pre and post budget thought the budget would negatively effect them.

    I wonder how many might switch to the ALP, even if just in their preferences, on the basis of this budget?

    To the extent that Morgan is credible, this has got to be bad news for the COALition, Abbott, Hockey and Cormann in particular.

    The next set of polls will be very interesting.

  26. @ fredex 2286

    Given the huge majority results, the finding is statistically significant no matter how much you insist Morgan has a bias.

    I would have liked to have seen a further breakdown between people who thought the Budget would harm their bottom line and those who thought it would make no difference, however (in the given results, both of these would be recorded as “no, the Budget did not benefit me”).

  27. As for the next federal voting intention poll – if it’s taken entirely after today, then it will show Labor on at least 56.

  28. I’m guessing, I said so a day or so ago, 1-2% extra for the ALP 2PP for each of the pollsters, more or less across the board.
    So Newspoll about 55%.

    PS I don’t ‘insist’ Morgan is biased, I just take each of the pollsters with a sprinkle of salt.

  29. @ fredex 2289

    I wasn’t saying that you specifically had said Morgan was biased, just that there is much talk of this being the case (and perhaps a statistical case to made that such a bias exists).

  30. [He explicitly said that Labor should let this travesty pass to teach the public a lesson about voting without using their brains.

    Nevermind that the poor and unemployed will die as a direct result of these policies securing passage.]

    Yes indeedy, I want them all to die. Bwahhahaha etc etc.