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Federal Politics 2013-

May 15, 2014

BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

A quiet week for polling ahead of the budget, but the weekly poll aggregate nonetheless maintains the weakening trend for the Coalition and Tony Abbott.

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With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.

On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.

Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1950 comments

1,950 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

  1. Zoidy

    I think you are wrong to be attacking the ALP’s changes to the DSP as the changes were positive for many people on DSP

    1-Increasing the hours a person could work before they lost their DSP was a positive step from 15 to 30
    2-The Gillard/Rudd Governments made it easier for disabled people to attend University

    The NDIS will become a reality in time

  2. I agree with those opposed to attacking Credlin’s life choices. Her political choices give ample scope for attack already.

    I think people need to be careful not to oversell Labor’s achievements in Gonski too. Apart from its dubious nature, most of the money was in outer years and I do not recall seeing how labor would have paid for them either. NDIS was a different story – Liberal tax vandalism has created that faux crisis. Of course what the Libs are doing is class warfare of the dumbest kind. But I don’t really want to see the alternative revert back to singing solidarity forever.

    Have a good evening all.

  3. @MB/1901

    I am not attacking the ALP changes the ones you are listed, I am asking for increased protection, more state-ability for DSP’s without worrying about those loosing DSP.

    The two points you raised do not fix that, I’m talking about the changes that allow people to get on DSP, stay on it and be able to resume their DSP, if and when they loose their job, loose their education or other circumstances changed.

    This is somewhat, related to the Impairment Tables that get continuously changed over the years by both Labor and Coalition Party, but also the Social Security Laws that continued to get tampered with by both parties.

    Then there Unlimited Portability for those who wish to move overseas, Labor increased Australian Working Life Residence Age to 35 years (example).

    If we don’t act on increasing protection for both DSP and Age Pensions, we will end up what’s happening in UK, and it’s my belief, with the new rules that Kevin Andrews wants to implement, we are getting there already.

  4. Zoidy

    The ALP didn’t introduce the ability for a person to gain employment then if they lot the position within two years they can return to it and I am not sure why you would think that is a bad thing.

    Surely the disabled deserve flexibility.

    If a disabled person is studying they wont lose their DSP, centrelink in some cases provide a supplement as an additional support payment.

  5. Have I posted this? Sorry if this is a duplicate.
    If you have an hour to spare, watch this 1921 Charlie Chaplin film. It is as relevant today as it was 93 years ago at the dawn of the age of moving pictures.
    Charlie Chaplin: The Kid (1921): http://youtu.be/b7q9hTRcJYQ via @YouTube

  6. psyclaw
    Admire Credlin I most certainly do not. Some people do some things well. Doing those things makes that person a low-life scum. Take whoever it is in Immigration who locks up kids.

  7. @MB/1906

    Because the Impairment Table(s) changes too often, sometimes DSP recipients do not get grandfathered.

    Kevin Andrews wants to re-assess everyone who has been previously assessed in the last 5-6 years, that’s pretty much the entire amount of years during Labor (go figure).

    I think there has been 2-3 Impairment Tables changed during Labor gov.

    Now that people will have to pay more to study, while at reduced rates, do you think people will go and study?

  8. Socrates.

    ‘I agree with those opposed to attacking Credlin’s life choices’.

    Beg to differ. The argument was not about her life choices.

    Sympathy lay there for her on a very different level.

    It is about how she chose to frame herself and employ her difficulties, in a very personal disclosure. Splashed across the papers, pictures and pages. All over Australia. Who could not have noticed?

    She didn’t seem to be promoting any cause other than painting Abbott in a good light. As his COS, it is political.

    Julia Gillard never presented herself in such a manner. Or at all.

    But they did. Murdoch, Credlin, Alan Jones, Bolt.

    No shame.

  9. Zoidy

    The loans will be increased but they are only paid back after a student is earning above a certain amount.

    Not sure why you have an issue with people being able to return to DSP if they finish employment within two years, or even if they are employed longer and their condition remains then they can still return to it which I would think is fair.

  10. It is 12:50 am on 16/5/14.

    I predict that within 24 hours this entry on Julie Bishop’s website will be removed because in this “doorstop” while campaigning with Bill Glasson on January 29th this year (less than 4 months ago) she ‘lays out the facts’ on any suggestion of a Medicare co-payment for GP visits. Of course removing it will draw even more attention to it.

    <>

    http://juliebishop.com.au/griffith-campaign-doorstop-with-lnp-candidate-dr-bill-glasson/

  11. The best quote by Julie Bishop on her own page is this

    “And let’s not forget where this story came from. It’s scaremongering on Labor’s part. It was a submission made to the Commission of Audit by an entity, it was not a proposal of the Federal Government. I’m in the Cabinet, this has never been proposed, this is not before the Cabinet. And so once more somebody puts forward an idea and Labor mischievously, dishonestly attributes it to the Government. What nonsense.”

  12. @MB/1912

    I don’t have an issue with people returning to DSP, that’s not my issue, my issue is that when rules get changed, it’s when people can’t return to their DSP.

  13. Then again, she could say that she thought the journalists were talking about a $6 co-payment, which clearly was NEVER the plan, it was $7 all along, so she did not lie!!

    The irony of course is that “Six Dollar Bill” Glasson originally supported the idea of a co-payment until senior Libs realised what electoral poison it was, and they made him recant publicly.

    Which means for sure he will never run again, as he would be feeling mightily p’d off with them I would imagine.

  14. For all the ‘elegant’ argument over Credlin.

    For all the earlier and much earlier and much the same over Mundine.

    As my aboriginal mates would say, with beautiful clarity.

    NO SHAME.

  15. @MB/1918

    Here are the changes they did, at least one set, and define “harder”?

    https://www.welfarerights.org.au/factsheets/2013/5/27/disability-support-pension-medical-appeals

    To be eligible for Disability Support Pension you must:

    score at least 20 points under the “impairment tables”;

    – your medical conditions do not receive any points unless they:

    – have been fully diagnosed, treated and stabilised; and
    – are unlikely to significantly improve with or without reasonable treatment within the next two years.

    – have a continuing inability to work: ie you must be unable to work more than 15 hours per week for the next two years; and
    – have actively participated in a program of support, unless exempt from this requirement.

    The 20 points requirement

    Many claims are rejected because Centrelink award less than the required 20.

    —————

    This is why Impairment Tables, and those assess them, matter.

  16. Zoidy

    Impairment Tables have been important tools for many years and help to ensure that the DSP is the right payment.

    A medical condition may be better handled under a different payment and the Impairment Tables assist in the streams of treatment and services.

  17. goodnight all.

    It was about now three years ago I got the call, and the doctor told me I needed to come into the hospital. I went into that hospital as Arthur’s wife. I left fourteen hours later as Arthur’s widow.

  18. On the DSP stuff – having dealt with some administrative stuff in this area years ago all I can remember is various treating/assessing people saying that calling something a “x percent” disability was impossible.

    I’m not sure whether that “percent” thing is still part of it but I can remember these people saying the only certain number was that 100% disability meant that you were dead!

  19. 1922

    Better handled under a different payment? Money is money.

    Newstart, the payment those who cannot work temporarily get paid, is lower and therefore less useful.

  20. My thoughts are with you, Puff.

    I well remember your search for a rose in Arthur’s memory.

    On the occasion of our first PB lunch.

    With love.

    Helen.

  21. WE WILL FIND A WAY
    WE WILL FIND A WAY!
    DROP THE LEASH
    DROP THE LEASH!
    GET OUT OF MY FARKING FACE!
    DROP THE LEASH!
    DROP THE LEASH!
    GET OF OF MY FACE

    DROP THE LEASH!
    WE ARE ONE
    DROP THE LEASH!
    WE ARE YOUNG!
    DROP THE LEASH
    DROP THE LEASH
    GET OUT OF MY!
    OUT OF MY!
    DELIGHT!
    DELIGHT IN OUR YOUTH!

  22. Tom

    Except people on DSP are placed in a different stream of services than people on Newsstart.

    For example person on DSP is not suppose to use JSA but rather the DEPs.

    DSP is for the disabled, many medical conditions are not disabilities as such for they can be treated and cured.

    The issue of payment level is worthy of discussion but is a different matter.

    The rate of DSP should be increased to $1,000 a fortnight while Newstart should be increased to $750 a fortnight

  23. Zoidy

    Well the budget is every bit a political document, its a pretty poor financial document with several holes in it.

  24. @MB/1930

    The rates you suggested are good, but it’s not going to happen anytime soon, it certainly didn’t under previous Labor Govs.

    I suggested to Labor when Gillard was in power to increase the rent assistance to help those doing uni/ and other education pathways, I got a call back saying that was good, and all that, but there was no action.

  25. Zoidy

    Yes this government is very naughty for changing the way DSP payments will in future only increase in line with inflation.

  26. No.

    Foxtel has the latest in the series. About halfway through the run.

    Don’t know what is meant by an internet only movie. Commercial value ones are produced by others then for example bought by Fox and shown on paid up to Rupe’s little goldmines.

    If you know how to torrent and stuff, you can get around the pitiless not yet dead enough filthy corrupting creep.

    One could almost have a tiny shred of pity for Rolf Harris, by comparison. Who, unlike that dhead, will certainly face gaol time.

    NOT that I am inferring anything of that nature about Sir Rupes.

    Merely a corruption of two or three democracies.

  27. I’m investing in US private jail operators because that is where we are headed under the loony Libs, figure i’ll make a killing when they start locking up poor bastards who aren’t worth anything unemployed but 120 Grand to jail.

  28. Rupert Murdoch is the Dr Goebells of the 21st century
    no other figure has been so evil or dangerous…funny that a small insignificant country like ours should produce the greatest of all media monsters…of which Abbott is a product ,,,carrying out the tha at thatcherite poison that Murdoch so loves

  29. Rupert Murdoch is the Dr Goebells of the 21st century
    no other figure has been so evil or dangerous…funny that a small insignificant country like ours should produce the greatest of all media monsters…of which Abbott is a product ,,,carrying out the tha at thatcherite poison that Murdoch so loves

    I didn’t even know we had jackals in Australia.

  30. Various examples of hopocrisy:
    1. You stuff so much food into your cake-hole that you need banded surgery, BUT you tell people they are responsible for looking after their own health;
    2. You had a private school education, got a law degree for nothing and never had a serious private sector job in your life, BUT you say people should stand on their own two feet;
    3. You claim the age of entitlement is over, BUT you can expect a whopping great government pension well before turning 70;
    4. You pretend to be a man of the people, BUT the only real people you’ve ever met were serving food at North Sydney Forum lunches.
    5. You pretend to be honest, BUT you lie in every sentence that starts with a capital letter.