tip off

BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

A quiet week for polling ahead of the budget, but the weekly poll aggregate nonetheless maintains the weakening trend for the Coalition and Tony Abbott.

With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.

On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.

Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.

1950
  • 1151
    Socrates
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 8:59 am | Permalink

    Morning all. I was pleased to see Shorten showed some backbone and take a stand against Hockey’s Tea Party Budget. It was an accurate call, too. He is not an inspiring speaker, but it was a good speech.

    The only point I disagree with is the opposition to re-indexing/raising the fuel excise, which is sensible policy and should be done. The financial pain is less than alleged, and only suffered by those who made stupid purchasing decisions, and then refuse to change them.

    Where Shorten is on weaker ground will be his inability to explain how Labor would pay for its own unfunded reforms, notably Gonski and NDIS. Introducing reforms without adding the means to pay for them is really no reform at all. Also, I do not mean to imply by that I regard Conski as a credible reform of education, as apposed to buying votes from teachers.

    So far neither side has faced up to the real issues needing tax reform – negative gearing, tax loopholes for trusts, and excessive super concessions. Presumably too many members of both sides abuse these lurks themselves!

    Have a good day all.

  • 1152
    dave
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:00 am | Permalink

    Hadley back in the news for the wrong reasons – again

    Ray Hadley creates minefield over wife's affair with coach Matt Parish

    Former greyhound race caller.......Ray Hadley has flatly refused to comment on the breakdown of his marriage with his second wife, Suzanne, despite it being the talk of Sydney’s rugby league circles.

    Suzanne has now embarked on a new relationship with Canberra Raiders assistant coach Matt Parish, who is also assistant coach for the NSW team in the upcoming State of Origin. To say the situation has created a political minefield around the corridors of the NRL would be putting it mildly.

    NSW coach Laurie Daley yesterday confirmed Hadley had applied undue pressure on him to have Parish sacked, having lobbied various NRL figures for weeks since Parish and Suzanne began their relationship.

    http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/ray-hadley-creates-minefield-over-wifes-affair-with-coach-matt-parish-20140516-zree8.html#ixzz31pOXOXZg

  • 1153
    rummel
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:02 am | Permalink

    I voted against the Libs with Work Choices as it went to far and fundamentally changedthe path of Australia away from what I wished for the country. After reviewing the budget I will again change my vote as the surcharge to visit a doctor goes against the principles of universal health care which I 100% support as a Right for all Australians.

    Yes, feel free to bag me from your high horse.

    Yes, the swng is on in voter land. All the libs voters I know of in Eden Monaro are openly bagging the government.

    That is all. Ta.

  • 1154
    dave
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:02 am | Permalink

    victoria@1150

    According to Ms Grattan, the coalition backbenchers are now relaxed and comfortable

    grattan – resuming her ‘normal’ service.

  • 1155
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:02 am | Permalink

    Good Morning

    Opening headline intro by 24 is of Foghorn talking at business dinner.

    His “killer line” Shorten talked politics not policy no one will take it seriously.

  • 1156
    BK
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    rummel
    You represent a swinging voter. Nothing wrong with that. Actually I wish everyone was a swinging voter looking closelya t issues and policies as they change.
    But that is asking for a bit too much.

  • 1157
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:05 am | Permalink

    Another benefit of Bill Shorten’s speech.

    The Canberra Press Gallery in denial got hit by the reality of opinion of people.

    Both on Social Media and people they personally met and saw in parliament.

    When Laura Tingle talks about a voter wake up call she is talking about the Press Gallery.

  • 1158
    BK
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    Shorten and Labor should be working hard now to coming up with plausible policies to address the fiscal imbalance. If they don’t the MSM will turn on them.

  • 1159
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    Rummel

    As a swinging voter I am interested in your views on PUP. How much influence does Palmer represent?

  • 1160
    zoomster
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    ...one can’t be sure of his political compass anymore.

    Seriously, Michelle? You thought Abbott had a political compass??

  • 1161
    dave
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:09 am | Permalink

    rummel@1153

    ….feel free to bag me from your high horse.

    The reason to ‘bag’ you is because you are as thick as a plank if you hadn’t worked all of this out long before the election.

    You are the one saying the penny has just dropped for you.

    Bend over abbott’s not finished yet.

  • 1162
    Player One
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    I gather he is saying that because less people will be visiting the doctor (because they can’t afford it), those who do will get in quicker and easier. How that actually improves health outcomes is a bit beyond me.

    It improves health outcomes for wealthy people … and who else matters to the LNP?

  • 1163
    zoomster
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    (He did promise before the 2013 election he would have a double dissolution if the carbon tax wasn’t repealed. But the new Senate is likely to end it – anyway, promises aren’t what they were.)

    More Grattan. So promises were crucial when it came to assessing the last government, but now – not so much.

  • 1164
    rummel
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    1159
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:07 am | PERMALINK
    Rummel

    As a swinging voter I am interested in your views on PUP. How much influence does Palmer represent?

    PUP is nothing more then a five minute parking space for disenchanted right voters. If the libs are upsetting you, then your not going to park behind Labor as it’s to soon after the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd circus. I think PUP represents the Centre Right vote upset with the libs, but don’t care what Palmer really stand for at the moment

  • 1165
    bemused
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:15 am | Permalink

    Fulvio Sammut@1049

    Get over it.

    Carr might be a first class pain in the arse when he’s at his incisive and arrogant best, but he’s still the sharpest, most knowlegable and most erudite tool in this little workshop.

    I agree.

    I often disagree with his position but I certainly respect his intellect, his knowledge and his strategic thinking. I never dismiss his opinions lightly. They deserve serious consideration whatever conclusion you come to.

  • 1166
    zoomster
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:15 am | Permalink

    rummel

    no bagging here. Good on you for taking a stand on principle.

  • 1167
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:16 am | Permalink

    Rummell

    That tends to my own line of thinking. However I also think that if Palmer gets his Senators to behave astutely politically those parking votes may never return.

  • 1168
    Unitary State
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    It is especially unacceptable to charge a $7 fee per visit to the GP for people under 18 and retired pensioners.

  • 1169
    dave
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    Bowen interview on Business Spectator – not paywalled -

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/5/15/national-affairs/kgb-interview-chris-bowen

  • 1170
    DisplayName
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:21 am | Permalink

    stranger @ 1153
    Ok, who are you and what did you do with our rummel?

  • 1171
    victoria
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    rummel

    R u serious? Surely you could see what the coalition were going to do?

  • 1172
    citizen
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    BK
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:07 am | PERMALINK
    Shorten and Labor should be working hard now to coming up with plausible policies to address the fiscal imbalance. If they don’t the MSM will turn on them.

    I think they have plenty to work with in ending the current tax rorts untouched by Hockey’s budget.

    There is majority support for the “deficit tax” on high income earners and this support would probably extend to other measures which would mainly affect those rich enough to afford it.

    For example, the novated lease schemes are still being advertised for their tax advantages.

    Of course, the MSM would probably turn on Labor for proposing these measures but the majority of voters would most likely be in favour if that meant the $7 GP tax and other nasties did not happen.

  • 1173
    Unitary State
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    bemused @1165
    Fulvio Sammut @1049

    Carr had so much potential. He was a very bright and intelligent man. If only the party apperatchiks did not stand in his way and had let him get on with his agenda.

    If the electricity generators were sold in 1997, it would have been worth over $35 billion and with the much cheaper cost of building transport then, we could have built everything we needed….. Northwest rail, Southwest rail, Parramatta to Epping, Second Harbour rail crossing, EVERYTHING. We would not have the worlds second worst transport system as we do today.

    After Keatings federal government seperated generation from distribution, it made no sense to keep the generators in public hands.

    By 2008, it was worth $11 or $12 billion and now worth even less. WHAT A SHAME.

  • 1174
    Boerwar
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    To sum up a string of posts from last night, here is what you will not read from either Deblonay or T.P

    Putin

    (1) actively promotes anti gay legislation, and has done nothing to put a halt to the murderous (literally) campaign of homophobic behaviour.

    (2) is complicit in the mass murder of journalists who oppose him

    (3) is personally responsible for the illegal imperial grab of Crimea

    (4) is complicit in the deaths of around 60,000 Chechen civilians

    (5) is complicit in a campaign to suppress the opposition by means of bashing, arrests, other forms of violent and non-violent harrassment up to, and including, the use of jail and the perversion of the use of institutions for the insane.

    (6) routinely uses xenophobia as a tool of arousing populist sentiment.

    Using his energy blackmail strategy, Putin has the Ukrainians by the economic balls and will squeeze and squeeze until they forego their territorial integrity, the Russian empire will grow a bit more, and the Ukrainians will be deprived of their right to self-determination.

    Oh, and those Ukrainian gays who will, as a result, fall into Putin’s hands had better watch out. They will be vilified. They will be illegal. They will be bashed. They will be tortored. The will, literally, be pissed on. They will be murdered. The perpetrators, ofen paid and uniformed agents of Putin’s state apparatus, will go scot free.

  • 1175
    BK
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:28 am | Permalink

    citizen
    Now it is easy to say the Coalition has kicked off a big class war. It’s time to show them how to do it – but fairly.

  • 1176
    citizen
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    Newman’s solution:

    Half of all the income tax Australians pay should flow to state and territory governments to fund schools and hospitals, the Queensland premier says.

    Campbell Newman will argue for the change when state and territory leaders, angry over the federal budget's $80 billion cut to health and education funding, meet for crisis talks in Sydney on Sunday.

    Mr Newman says states and territories are more than happy to assume full responsibility for those services, but must be given the means to fund them.

    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/states-must-get-50-of-income-tax-newman-20140516-38dlg.html

  • 1177
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    Oops!

    @abcnews: #Budget2014 Coalition didn’t budget for public sector redundancies: Opposition http://t.co/M9Aa9Tzc5B

  • 1178
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    Shorten and Labor should be working hard now to coming up with plausible policies to address the fiscal imbalance. If they don’t the MSM will turn on them.

    They need to be developing them – but they shouldn’t release them to the election. It is the governments problem now – let them find alternatives.

  • 1179
    Boerwar
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    r
    Lordy.

    So, you have cottoned on to the fact that they dudded you comprehensively on health, education and cost of living.

    Congratulations. Better late than never. And I freely admit that in a lifetime I have been dudded comprehensively from time to time by some of the best liars in the business.

    Here is hint for you: these same bastards have dudded you on your climate. They have done so on behalf of the same set of clients: the Gekko Gang.

  • 1180
    dave
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    victoria@1171

    rummel

    R u serious? Surely you could see what the coalition were going to do?

    Don’t worry Vic – rummel will change his mind 20 or 40 times before the next election – he will post it here each time – which will give many of us a jolly old great big giraffe :)

  • 1181
    dave
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:34 am | Permalink

    dave@1169

    Bowen interview on Business Spectator – not paywalled -

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/5/15/national-affairs/kgb-interview-chris-bowen

    This interview runs for 22 minutes but Bowen handles himself well – against people who consistently bag Labor.

  • 1182
    Steve777
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:36 am | Permalink

    It appears to me that the LNP are pushing their plan much faster than anyone was expecting. In 2013 the Liberals were pretty much a policy-free zone. All our problems will be fixed if we stop the boats, ditch the carbon and mining taxes on stop wasting money. When asked how money was being wasted, they mentioned batts and cheques to dead people. Public servants would suffer but not nice people like oneself and family.

    Of course now we know they thought the money was being wasted on Medicare and pensions. I always thought that the IPA’s 75 point plan represented where the LNP wanted to take the country, but I never imagined that they would want to implement so much of it in their first term.

    So now we know. The Coalition’s campaigning during the term of the last Parliament and in particular during the 2013 was fraudulent. They have a mandate to do very little and certainly not tear down the long-standing Australian compact. They won government on the basis of lies. As Bill Shorten said, bring it on. We can have an election knowing what the LNP really want to do.

  • 1183
    briefly
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    1174
    Boerwar

    Well spoken, Bw

  • 1184
    dave
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Fine – bring it on. Many voters would probably like an opportunity to “review” how they cast their vote.

    Labor should invite abbott to set the date and both sides co-operate to set in place the necessary triggers for a DD.

    Govt open to double dissolution: Turnbull

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/5/16/federal-budget/govt-open-double-dissolution-turnbull

  • 1185
    citizen
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Max the Axe now wants to take up the option gifted to Sydney Airport’s owners when the airport was privatised by Howard in 2002.

    THEY have argued for years that Sydney doesn’t need Badgerys Creek, but now ­Sydney Airport Corporation Limited could snap up the rights to build and run it.

    With the Federal Government giving the multi-billion-dollar project the green light, Sydney Airport Corporation Limited yesterday changed its tune on Badgerys.

    Speaking at the Sydney ­Airport AGM yesterday, chairman Max Moore-Wilton suggested the contract to build and run Badgerys was too valuable an opportunity to pass up.

    Mr Moore-Wilton said Sydney Airport would engage with the government on a “constructive and commercial basis” on planning for the new airport and pointed out that his company had “first right of refusal” to operate a second airport in Sydney.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/companies/sydney-airport-corporation-limited-changes-course-company-expresses-new-interest-in-badgerys-creek/story-fni0d54u-1226919468241

  • 1186
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:40 am | Permalink

    Abbott has a political compass — it’s just that his “north” is the interests of the fraction of the boss class most closely linked with the big banks and resource companies.

  • 1187
    Jake
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    Dave,

    Rummel’s entitled to his opinion, and to change his mind if he wishes. Imagine if progressive political forces in this country took the same scornful approach to a voter swinging back to them that you have taken to Rummel.

    I think you should pull your head in.

  • 1188
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    Greg Combet in the box pink batts RC

  • 1189
    briefly
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    1103
    Sir Mad Cyril

    Not quite sure I get Dutton’s logic here. If there is any.

    Health Minister Peter Dutton has predicted the introduction of a fee to visit the doctor will improve health outcomes by making it easier for patients to get an appointment and for doctors to spend more time with patients.

    Dutton is inadvertently confessing – the fee id intended to reduce the use of medical services. That’s the plan. From the LNP peculiar point of view, less service means better health. If this were the case, $7.00 would not be enough. At each point of escalation in price, quality of health outcomes would go up….This is an absurdity.

    Fortunately, the Senate appears very likely to reject these changes and many others.

    This invites the question…how will the LNP be able to both reduce the deficit and repeal the carbon pricing mechansim/ETS? Of course, they won’t be able to. Very luckily for the budget, PPL and ERF are dead in the water.

  • 1190
    zoomster
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    Grattan (again) quoting Lib backbenchers –

    “All budgets are merely promises. What you are judged by is whether you can deliver,” a frontbencher notes. A backbencher asks the very pertinent question: “Does the leadership have the ability to sell what they have philosophically prepared in this budget – their program to change the nation?”

    Well, on both counts, they’re pretty much screwed.

  • 1191
    Tom Hawkins
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    Abbott has a political compass

    It’s not a compass. It’s a weathervane by his own admission.

  • 1192
    dave
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:49 am | Permalink

    Jake@1187

    Dave,

    Rummel’s entitled to his opinion, and to change his mind if he wishes. Imagine if progressive political forces in this country took the same scornful approach to a voter swinging back to them that you have taken to Rummel.

    I think you should pull your head in.

    I’m entitled to my opinion as much as him.

    He is not a swinging voter but one who believed abbott’s garbage and has only just worked it out – despite being told many times before the election what would happen – ie what is now happening.

    He voted to allow this to happen and sneered constantly at any side of politics who would have prevented abbott from getting into power.

    Pull you’re own head in and wake up while your doing it!

  • 1193
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    “@Simon_Cullen: Qld Premier says the states should be given a percentage of income tax revenue to help pay for schools & hospitals #budget”

  • 1194
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    Couldn’t happen to a nicer fella…

    It’s the sort of scandal that is so quintessentially Sydney: the powerful radio and sports broadcaster nursing a broken heart, his estranged wife and her new boyfriend, the former football star turned NRL coach.

    Former greyhound race caller turned talkback powerhouse Ray Hadley has flatly refused to comment on the breakdown of his marriage with his second wife, Suzanne, despite it being the talk of Sydney’s rugby league circles.
    ...
    When ... asked about claims, raised on Monday night’s Media Watch program on the ABC, that he had influenced his close associate, The Daily Telegraph’s editor Paul Whittaker, to pull a story about his marriage breakdown and Parish, Hadley declined to elaborate on the specifics, offering only: "Obviously you have a private life and I don’t discuss your private life either on my program or away from my program. I’ll be making no comment."

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/ray-hadley-creates-minefield-over-wifes-affair-with-coach-matt-parish-20140516-zree8.html#ixzz31pbnIVtv

    Gee, it didn’t stop him from discussing the Fish & Chip shop lady’s private life, repeatedly on air, to the point where she sued him for defamation and won.

    Parenthetically, I have it on good authority that Ray still hasn’t paid up, by the way. He’s up for a $100,000 down-payment, but is keeping it close to hand.

  • 1195
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    @political_alert: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is in Melbourne today and will hold a brief doorstop at 11am in St Albans #auspol

  • 1196
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    Abbott presser on roads

  • 1197
    BH
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 10:02 am | Permalink

     missed it because I was watching Adelaide beat Collingwood with my son playing at half time]

    Dio Terrific night for you.

    Isn’t it just the best watching the kids having a wow of a time in the big ground. We loved watching our sons, then grandson and even our granddaughter on the SCG when she filled in for a sick little fella.

    Combet answering so firmly at RC. I miss him as a pollie. He’s a good bloke.

  • 1198
    briefly
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    1190
    zoomster

    The budget is also a forecast on the economy. In this respect, the budget is already out of date. Iron ore and coal prices are falling as Chinese and global steel markets pass their saturation points; in the domestic economy, home building and other construction have passed their peak and started to recede taking household credit demand with them. These forces really mean the economy is going to struggle to grow at all in the coming year and that unemployment is bound to increase even as the LNP threaten poverty for those who lose their jobs.

    Every time Hockey or Abbott talk about the “problem” with the budget and implement “unavoidable” spending cuts, they will encourage households to restrain their spending and business to postpone its investment. In an economy with already weak private demand, such talk and such actions risk tipping the economy into a demand-led contraction.

    Such a reversal in the economy would be very very difficult to arrest. Hockey’s chant about growing deficits would become self-fulfilling as tax receipts fell and outlays climbed.

    The LNP’s political narrative and the health of the economy are now in conflict with each other. Every time they talk up the need for cuts, they increase the chances of a household-led recession.

    They are very very close to completely wrecking things after less than one year in office.

  • 1199
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 10:05 am | Permalink

    Asked about DD Abbott responds

    We will get on with governing

  • 1200
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    “@david_latham: Hang on a sec… has Mike Baird just backflipped on his faux anger with the federal government!? #nswpol #auspol”

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