tip off

Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor

The first poll since the budget finds it to have been the worst-received budget since 1993, although the Coalition’s position on voting intention is no worse than it was already.

The Sunday News Limited tabloids have published the first poll since the budget, courtesy of Galaxy. Details from the reporting are sketchy, but it is presumably a phone-plus-online poll of around 1400 respondents, assuming it followed the same routine as the previous Galaxy poll a fortnight ago. Two-party preferred is at 53-47 in favour of Labor, up from 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (down one), 38% for Labor (up one) and a new high of 8% for Palmer United (up two). No result is available as yet for the Greens. (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the Greens are down a point to 10%, and that the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1399.)

With regards to the budget, only 41% rate it as good for the economy versus 46% for not good, while fully 74% say they expect to be worse off against only 11% for better off. The former set of numbers are in stark contrast to the Howard government’s first tough budget after it came to power in 1996, which according to Newspoll was rated good for the economy by 59% and bad by only 22%, with 6% opting for neither good nor bad (an option not available from Galaxy). The only other budget since 1995 to have scored a net negative rating from Newspoll on this measure was last year’s, at 35% for good, 37% for bad and 7% for neither).

The results on impact on respondents’ financial position resemble Newspoll’s findings for the politically disastrous budget that John Dawkins brought down after Labor’s election victory in 1993, which had 4% for better off, 74% for worse off and 17% for no change (the latter option again not available from Galaxy). However, whereas the results from 1993 were accompanied by a collapse in support for the Keating government, this poll has two-party preferred unchanged on pre-budget polling.

840
  • 1
    Swing Required
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    The voting intention and the good/bad figures seem out of kilter with the beter off/worse off numbers.

    I’ll wait for one or two more polls,I think. This looks a bit conservative to me.

  • 2
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    Hi William, although the TPP on this Galaxy is unchanged from some of the pre-budget polls, its not from Galaxy specifically. The last one a fortnight ago was 52-48, so its a one point shift to the ALP.

    http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/30-april-1/

  • 3
    fredex
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    I have the previous galaxy as ALP 52:48, therefore a change in 2PP this time of +1 to Labor.

  • 4
    Georgie
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    In relation to the Galaxy results, I think the slide for Abbott and his government will become more apparent in weeks to come.

  • 5
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Thanks Leroy and Fred, corrected.

  • 6
    Paul
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Looks like William had better apply his bias balancer to Galaxy…… after all it’s almost agreeing with Reachtel

  • 7
    cud chewer
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    Abbott at minus 20 and falling :)

  • 8
    Georgie
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    Yeah. The Galaxy results are probably equal to an ALP 54:46 Neilson on Sunday night/Monday morning!

  • 9
    fredex
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    And the only way I can get 53:47 with those primaries for the 2 majors and PUP on 8 is with ‘others’ at 5 [-2 and Greens unchanged at 11.
    ?

  • 10
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    I want to see the updated Abbott disapproval figures.

  • 11
    scorpio
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    cud chewer,

    Abbott at minus 20 and falling :)

    He might need a new thermometer~! ;-)

  • 12
    Georgie
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    Well, it’s gunna be fascinating to see how Abbott et al are gunna handle the blowtorch to the belly, especially when he’s the one that’s ignited it!

  • 13
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    @12

    That’s easy, blame Labor for debt and deficit, the news papers hide the bad news.

  • 14
    scorpio
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    It’s only a newspaper poll, but I bet it is enough to give the new LNP Member for Capricornia heartburn. Hockey’s Budget is not going well up here.

    Reader poll
    If a Federal Election was called today, who would you vote for?
    Current Results

    Palmer United Party – 11%

    Katter’s Australian Party – 1%

    Australian Labor Party – 56%

    The Liberal National Party – 18%

    The Greens Party – 11%

    This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

  • 15
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    Abbott’s -ve net sat is hardly surprising. He’s just spent the last couple of weeks convincing everyone that nothing he says can be relied on. In fact, now we can expect Abbott and Co to do the opposite of anything they say. It really does look like power has gone to their heads – like they believe they can try anything, get away with everything.

  • 16
    Simon Katich
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    Dan

    I want to see the updated Abbott disapproval figures

    If you want to ‘hear’ updated Abbott disapproval numbers…head to your nearest March in May tomorrow.

    I am hanging for a Monday Morgan outlier to break the 55 line. Go you good Roy Morgan thing!

  • 17
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    And the only way I can get 53:47 with those primaries for the 2 majors and PUP on 8 is with ‘others’ at 5 [-2 and Greens unchanged at 11.
    ?

    I get there with Greens 10% and others 6%. Why is Greens 11% and others 5% a problem particularly?

  • 18
    WarrenPeace
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    It apears that one of my posts disappeared into the ether.
    It was a post responding to
    poroti 576
    A most excellent nom de guerre.
    It was
    Thanks my name is from a movie in which Kurt Russell plays a super Hero. the movie is “Sky High” a very funny family type movie Warren Peace is the son of a Super hero and and a super villian, War and Peace< which allows me to be good cop bad cop if I wish

  • 19
    Georgie
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord
    I think they’ll be plenty of that, but I think that if this momentum we’re seeing at the moment goes to grow it’ll be case of ‘he can run, but he can’t hide’.

  • 20
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    Not quite fixed yet, William. Still reads ” Two-party preferred is unchanged at 53-47″

  • 21
    deblonay
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/melbourne-mother-kaye-stirland-writes-open-letter-to-treasurer-

    A surprisingly good open letter on New Ltd site re Budget

  • 22
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    I see the DT article claims it’s “unchanged” by the way.

  • 23
    scorpio
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    WarrenPeace,

    It made it onto the previous thread ok!

  • 24
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    Ah. All good now. Thanks William.

  • 25
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    @19

    I don’t have high hopes.

  • 26
    Simon Katich
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Did someone say LIBSPILL earlier?

    Hypothetically, should such a thing happen, is Hockey now struck from the list of candidates?

  • 27
    scorpio
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Blimey, nearly time to turn into a pumpkin. Night all.

  • 28
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    There could hardly be a less propitious time for a Federal Treasurer to slam household incomes and confidence. the china economy is decelerating very quickly as the property market there bursts, already impelling marked decline in export prices.

    http://english.caixin.com/2014-05-16/100678590.html

    An investment banker has blamed the recent slowdown in China's property market on the triple whammy of a graying population, high prices and oversupply – and he says urbanization won't ride to the rescue...

    Also, high prices for homes mean most people are having difficulty making a purchase, Ha said. He estimated that in many large and medium-sized cities, average monthly payments on mortgages accounted for up to 78 percent of household income last year, up from 62 percent in 2010.

    "Such a high rate is unacceptable for most normal families," Ha said, adding that a more reasonable level was 50 percent.

    Finally, the total area of the country's commercial properties under construction was 4.9 billion square meters at the end of last year, Ha said, and this was four times what was needed. And this oversupply will only worsen as population growth slows, he said.

    As for suggestions that rapid urbanization will aid the property market, Ha said many migrant workers cannot afford home prices in big cities. "Urbanization can't save China's property market."

  • 29
    fredex
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    Not a problem, just playing with numbers.
    Greens at 11, others at 5 gives me 53 comfortably but 10/6 is only just 52.6. Depends on fractions I suppose.
    anyway we’ll find out soon I hope.

    PS the words ‘is unchanged’ need to be omitted from the second sentence in the intro.

  • 30
    fredex
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    jeez that change occurred whilst typing.

  • 31
    zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m

    #Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (-1) ALP 38 (+1) GRN 10 (-1) PUP 8 (+2) #auspol

  • 32
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    The Greens are on 10 (-1). The poll was taken 14-16 May, 1399 voters

  • 33
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1511855/xi-jinpings-new-normal-chinese-characteristics

    The world needs to get ready for a new normal with Chinese characteristics. Reacting to yet more evidence that China's growth is moderating quickly, President Xi Jinping more or less told us last weekend to get used to it.

    "We must boost our confidence, adapt to the new normal condition based on the characteristics of China's economic growth in the current phase and stay cool-minded," Xinhua quoted Xi as saying.

    What that means for China is not just slow growth, but slow growth complicated by a lot of debt, a hint of deflation, trouble brewing in the real-estate sector and very limited policy options.

    What that means for the rest of the world is less demand for natural resources and even less reason to be optimistic about the prospect for more, well, normal labour markets and inflation.

  • 34
    Kinkajou
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    March tomorrow

    Democracy ya don’t use it ya lose it!!!

  • 35
    imacca
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    In relation to the Galaxy results, I think the slide for Abbott and his government will become more apparent in weeks to come.

    99.999% of punters will have not even had a cursory flick through the published budget papers. They will be finding out things they don’t like (allowances cut, programs defunct….) over the next few months and wont be liking any of it. I think the political damage from this budget is just beginning.

  • 36
    Georgie
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    ‘night all. Going to get some kip. Another good day for Labor!

  • 37
    Georgie
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    Just saw your post imacca before closing the PC. I totally agree. It’s a bit like sun damaged skin. You don’t get to see the results of the sun damage until years later, only in Abbott’s case it will become obvious over the coming weeks and months!

  • 38
    mari
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 12:10 am | Permalink

    What a nice poll to greet me here at Sigapore airport. Onwards to Heathrow in half an hour , a happy woman :grin:

  • 39
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 12:15 am | Permalink

    Re Poll
    ________
    We can assume that 85% of Green prefs go to Labor…but the Palmer prefs are less clear the end result
    In view of his harsh critique of Abbott and his gang…is it possible that Palmer’s prefs would go more strongly to Labor than at the last election…that changes the poll result

  • 40
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    It’s certainly true that Palmer preferences are a bit of an unknown variable. I wouldn’t assume they will be worse for the Coalition than they were at the election, because PUP got a lot of Labor-identifying voters looking for somewhere to park a protest vote, and their preferences tended to come back to Labor. Whereas I think what we’re seeing now is PUP peeling votes off the Coalition, so that the pool of PUP voters is further to the right than it used to be.

  • 41
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 12:19 am | Permalink

    Simon

    If you want to ‘hear’ updated Abbott disapproval numbers…head to your nearest March in May tomorrow.

    Yep. I’ll be there at only my second political rally. The first one was in March :wink:

  • 42
    Atticus
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 12:40 am | Permalink

    Surprised to see you speculating on the nature of PUP vote, William, although your supposition is certainly most logical one that springs to my mind. :)

  • 43
    Atticus
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 12:44 am | Permalink

    BB,
    The film “Black and White” was exceptionally well written and superbly acted. I’ve spent an hour since it ended attempting to purchase it online, but having no luck at all.

  • 44
    Atticus
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 12:47 am | Permalink

    The finding that this is the worst received budget in a generation was well worth waiting up for.
    Night all.

  • 45
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 1:03 am | Permalink

    March in May rallies tomorrow …in Sydney/Perth/Adelaide
    _______________________
    http://musicfeeds.com.au/news/sarah-blasko-playing-march-in-may-rally-rap-against-abbott-to-follow/

    see above for times and places of rallies

  • 46
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 1:24 am | Permalink

    Swing Required@1

    The voting intention and the good/bad figures seem out of kilter with the beter off/worse off numbers.

    It is usual for this to be the case, but to not quite the same degree. Check the graphs in Mumble here:

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/how_high_will_it_go/

    Note how the axis for one has -40 in the middle and the axis for the other has 0. So about a 40% gap is pretty common.

    It’s very likely that a lot of voters have just swallowed that the harsh medicine is needed, unlike 1993 when they not only thought it was bad for them but also that it was bad for everyone, and hence the government fell off a cliff (9 point Newspoll to Newspoll swing!)

  • 47
    ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 1:46 am | Permalink

    It’s like a jungle sometimes
    It makes me wonder how I keep from goin’ under

    Broken glass everywhere
    People pissin’ on the stairs, you know they just don’t care
    I can’t take the smell, can’t take the noise
    Got no money to move out, I guess I got no choice
    Rats in the front room, roaches in the back
    Junkies in the alley with a baseball bat
    I tried to get away but I couldn’t get far
    Cause a man with a tow truck repossessed my car

    Chorus

    Don’t push me cause I’m close to the edge
    I’m trying not to lose my head
    It’s like a jungle sometimes
    It makes me wonder how I keep from goin’ under

    Standin’ on the front stoop hangin’ out the window
    Watchin’ all the cars go by, roarin’ as the breezes blow
    Crazy lady, livin’ in a bag
    Eatin’ outta garbage pails, used to be a fag hag
    Said she’ll dance the tango, skip the light fandango
    A Zircon princess seemed to lost her senses
    Down at the peep show watchin’ all the creeps
    So she can tell her stories to the girls back home
    She went to the city and got so so seditty
    She had to get a pimp, she couldn’t make it on her own

    Chorus

    It’s like a jungle sometimes
    It makes me wonder how I keep from goin’ under

    My brother’s doin’ bad, stole my mother’s TV
    Says she watches too much, it’s just not healthy
    All My Children in the daytime, Dallas at night
    Can’t even see the game or the Sugar Ray fight
    The bill collectors, they ring my phone
    And scare my wife when I’m not home
    Got a bum education, double-digit inflation
    Can’t take the train to the job, there’s a strike at the station
    Neon King Kong standin’ on my back
    Can’t stop to turn around, broke my sacroiliac
    A mid-range migraine, cancered membrane
    Sometimes I think I’m goin’ insane
    I swear I might hijack a plane!

    Chorus

    It’s like a jungle sometimes
    It makes me wonder how I keep from goin’ under

    My son said, Daddy, I don’t wanna go to school
    Cause the teacher’s a jerk, he must think I’m a fool
    And all the kids smoke reefer, I think it’d be cheaper
    If I just got a job, learned to be a street sweeper
    Or dance to the beat, shuffle my feet
    Wear a shirt and tie and run with the creeps
    Cause it’s all about money, ain’t a damn thing funny
    You got to have a con in this land of milk and honey
    They pushed that girl in front of the train
    Took her to the doctor, sewed her arm on again
    Stabbed that man right in his heart
    Gave him a transplant for a brand new start
    I can’t walk through the park cause it’s crazy after dark
    Keep my hand on my gun cause they got me on the run
    I feel like a outlaw, broke my last glass jaw
    Hear them say “You want some more?”
    Livin’ on a see-saw

    Chorus

    It’s like a jungle sometimes
    It makes me wonder how I keep from goin’ under

    A child is born with no state of mind
    Blind to the ways of mankind
    God is smilin’ on you but he’s frownin’ too
    Because only God knows what you’ll go through
    You’ll grow in the ghetto livin’ second-rate
    And your eyes will sing a song called deep hate
    The places you play and where you stay
    Looks like one great big alleyway
    You’ll admire all the number-book takers
    Thugs, pimps and pushers and the big money-makers
    Drivin’ big cars, spendin’ twenties and tens
    And you’ll wanna grow up to be just like them, huh
    Smugglers, scramblers, burglars, gamblers
    Pickpocket peddlers, even panhandlers
    You say I’m cool, huh, I’m no fool
    But then you wind up droppin’ outta high school
    Now you’re unemployed, all non-void
    Walkin’ round like you’re Pretty Boy Floyd
    Turned stick-up kid, but look what you done did
    Got sent up for a eight-year bid
    Now your manhood is took and you’re a Maytag
    Spend the next two years as a undercover fag
    Bein’ used and abused to serve like hell
    Til one day, you was found hung dead in the cell
    It was plain to see that your life was lost
    You was cold and your body swung back and forth
    But now your eyes sing the sad, sad song
    Of how you lived so fast and died so young so

    Chorus

  • 48
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 2:16 am | Permalink

    Further re #46 the gap between economic and personal ratings of 59 points is higher than any in Newspoll ever, though it was 58 points in 1996.

    I’ve updated my budget polling article at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/05/budget-blowout-in-coalition-polling.html If Newspoll replicates Galaxy then this is a new species of budget reception!

  • 49
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 2:25 am | Permalink

    Paul@6

    Looks like William had better apply his bias balancer to Galaxy…… after all it’s almost agreeing with Reachtel

    It’s a point below it; my current correction to RT is exactly that + I suspect William’s is similar.

    Galaxy is like a golf ball that always lands on the fairway somewhere and usually right in the middle of it. Quite uncanny how little it bounces around. When was the last rogue Galaxy poll? Was there ever one?

  • 50
    ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 2:30 am | Permalink

    Now the party’s over, I’m so tired
    Then I see you coming out of nowhere
    Much communication in a motion
    Without conversation or a notion

    Avalon

    When the samba takes you out of nowhere
    And the background’s fading out of focus
    Yes the picture’s changing every moment
    And your destination, you don’t know it

    Avalon

    When you bossanova there’s no holding
    Would you have me dancing out of nowhere

    Avalon [Repeats]

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