tip off

Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor

The first poll since the budget finds it to have been the worst-received budget since 1993, although the Coalition’s position on voting intention is no worse than it was already.

The Sunday News Limited tabloids have published the first poll since the budget, courtesy of Galaxy. Details from the reporting are sketchy, but it is presumably a phone-plus-online poll of around 1400 respondents, assuming it followed the same routine as the previous Galaxy poll a fortnight ago. Two-party preferred is at 53-47 in favour of Labor, up from 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (down one), 38% for Labor (up one) and a new high of 8% for Palmer United (up two). No result is available as yet for the Greens. (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the Greens are down a point to 10%, and that the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1399.)

With regards to the budget, only 41% rate it as good for the economy versus 46% for not good, while fully 74% say they expect to be worse off against only 11% for better off. The former set of numbers are in stark contrast to the Howard government’s first tough budget after it came to power in 1996, which according to Newspoll was rated good for the economy by 59% and bad by only 22%, with 6% opting for neither good nor bad (an option not available from Galaxy). The only other budget since 1995 to have scored a net negative rating from Newspoll on this measure was last year’s, at 35% for good, 37% for bad and 7% for neither).

The results on impact on respondents’ financial position resemble Newspoll’s findings for the politically disastrous budget that John Dawkins brought down after Labor’s election victory in 1993, which had 4% for better off, 74% for worse off and 17% for no change (the latter option again not available from Galaxy). However, whereas the results from 1993 were accompanied by a collapse in support for the Keating government, this poll has two-party preferred unchanged on pre-budget polling.

840
  • 801
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

    briefly

    Some of the people i spoke to at the rally today, made it quite clear that Abbott and his cronies actions are deliberate. They are just enacting their ideology under the guise of a “budget emergency”
    The fact that they have failed to convince the electorate, is a serious problem for them now.
    What to do

  • 802
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

    Rudd would have been a legend had he not thought Green with his pink batts scheme and had the Loons supported the CPRS.

    Gillard would have been a legend had she kept away.

    Lets Y A W N move on!

  • 803
    Henry
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

    Good post Bob’s Uncle.
    Couldn’t agree more.
    Once you let the right shift the debate to their terms and their extreme ideology becomes the centre almost, you nearly have lost the debate.

  • 804
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

    Community Editor of The Age
    https://twitter.com/Agecommunity/status/467977850339872768

    Paul Austin ‏@Agecommunity
    Remarkable post-Budget Age/Nielsen Poll, exclusive in tomorrow's @theage #auspol #Budget2014
    8:39 PM - 18 May 2014

    No way of knowing what that means. Don’t know much about Paul.

  • 805
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

    briefly:

    We’re apparently expecting a very strong cold front to hit us towards the end of the week. Winds to 65km/hr.

  • 806
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

    @Leroy/804

    Thanks,

    We prob find out through James J or Ghost tonight then.

  • 807
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

    I have read Elder’s latest piece

    The real political game, as it was under Howard, is to force the Coalition out of office at the state level so that the Coalition is not conflicted or diverted politically between federal and state governments. For the Manichean Abbott, the federal-state blame game can be clarified by abandoning state government (and its pernicious moderating influences) to Labor.

    It may have dawned on the premiers today that this is indeed the coalition game plan. They were scathing of Abbott and Co

  • 808
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

    We’ve had top autumn weather in Sydney.

    Could it be that the pollution is just right?

    *ducks and runs :twisted:

  • 809
    J341983
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

    “Remarkable” could be swing to the Government or complete collapse.

  • 810
    shellbell
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

    ICAC has a few more days this week. Chris Hartcher is the man of the moment this week. May he melt in the witness box.

    Nathan Tinkler’s evidence on Friday featured him calling Counsel assisting a fuckwit and someone saying “It takes one to know one” in an unspecified context.

  • 811
    victoria
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    Premiers angry at budget shortfall

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-federal-government-should-look-at-their-own-inefficiencies-premiers-angry-at-budget-shortfall-20140518-38hmm.html

  • 812
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    All forecast type commentary, but still.

    Bad news for the farmers and graziers over the winter but more importantly over the Spring/bushfire season. At this stage global models are unanimous in predicting below average rainfalls and average to above average temperatures for most of Eastern and Northern Australia over the next 3-6 months.

    While we expect to see dry conditions in this part of the world for the next few months, the trend for the storm/build up season next wet is quite worrying. The models that do go to 6 months and beyond continue to suggest a moderate to strong El Nino and the rainfall prospects for the early part of the storms season are very low. As you can see here, most of the northern half of Australia is likely to experience a drier than normal start to the storm season.

    Should this trend continue, we may unfortunately be in for a bumper bushfire season starting in late August/September for almost all of Eastern and Northern Australia. Obviously it's far too early to look ahead to the next cyclone season or the next wet season, but the build up to it is not likely to be very positive. (Nitso)

    The image below is a multi model ensemble that shows the probability of achieving above average rainfalls across two separate three month periods.

    https://www.facebook.com/ozcyclonechasers/photos/a.264240050298803.64719.251725551550253/699500406772763/?type=1&theater

  • 813
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    ....

    As far as TP and me and our views.are concerned ..it might be a case of Great Minds often think alike !

    Fools never differ, but who cares.

    Once upon a time the Rudd spear throwers mattered; the damage the did mattered; but in 2014 two little spear throwers ain’t going to stop the Australia doing what Australia is going to do: Rudd’s going to be the excuse; Rudd’s going to hell.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/16/kevin-rudd-disgraced-himself-father-installer-inquiry

  • 814
    sprocket_
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    maybe PVO has seen Neilsen?

    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 2m
    A message for the Coalition ahead of tomorrow... DON'T PANIC!

  • 815
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    MY tip 56/44 to Labor.

  • 816
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    “Remarkable”? If it was PvO who posted that I’d say it’s a swing to the Coalition.

    Don’t know anything about Paul Austin though.

  • 817
    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    PvO
    https://twitter.com/vanOnselenP/status/467989130429755392

    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP
    A message for the Coalition ahead of tomorrow... DON'T PANIC!
    9:24 PM - 18 May 2014

  • 818
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    Perhaps war might have just been avoided between China and Japan:
    http://www.japantoday.com/category/politics/view/japan-china-trade-ministers-hold-first-meeting-since-abes-yasukuni-visit

  • 819
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    “@vanOnselenP: A message for the Coalition ahead of tomorrow… DON’T PANIC!”

    Someone who knows PvO better than me on tweets about polling can attempt to read tealeaves

  • 820
    kezza2
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    fess

    We’re apparently expecting a very strong cold front to hit us towards the end of the week. Winds to 65km/hr.

    Just realised you’re Janet Henfrey (Mrs Bale, As Time Goes By)

  • 821
    shellbell
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    We’ve had top autumn weather in Sydney.

    Could it be that the pollution is just right?

    Best climate among the Oz capitals

  • 822
    J341983
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    Or maybe he’s heard rumbles about Newspoll…

  • 823
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    frednk

    He’s probably an avid Liberal voter, sheesh!

  • 824
    soyaking
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    I’m predicting either unchanged or a 1 point swing to the government. “Remarkable” means not what the public expected. It’s also perfectly consistent with van Oscillator.

  • 825
    Player One
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    gloryconsequence@816

    “Remarkable”?

    Perhaps “remarkable” because there’s no change at all?

  • 826
    Centre
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    shellbell

    They’re polluting at the right spot :twisted:

  • 827
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    Knowing PvO he’s probably meaning the opposite of what he says.

  • 828
    shellbell
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    Paul Austin is just marketing Fairfax publications

  • 829
    sprocket_
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    Is this legal tender?

    https://twitter.com/Mysta/status/467951359778508800/photo/1/large

  • 830
    J341983
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    @824… yes, a static Nielsen would also qualify as ‘remarkable’

  • 831
    guytaur
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 44 (-4) ALP 56 (+4) #auspol”

  • 832
    kezza2
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    vic

    Just spoke to youngest son, as he was getting off train at Tottenham from rally.

    He reckoned the consensus was 15,000 attended. What say you?

    All I could tell him was The Age reported “thousands”.

    And he and his cohorts are going to back on Wednesday for the students/pensioners rally – hopefully better organised, says he.

  • 833
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    New thread.

  • 834
    frednk
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    Centre
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    frednk

    He’s probably an avid Liberal voter, sheesh!

    He is probable a farther that lost his son.

  • 835
    imacca
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    Is this legal tender?

    https://twitter.com/Mysta/status/467951359778508800/photo/1/large

    I would have thought with JoHo it would be an eleventy dollar Bill??

  • 836
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    FredNK
    ___________Re my views and those of TP…youj could have read what I said in the past

    While TP and me do share many similar views..;..I have never on this site voiced admiration for either Gillard or Rudd…you are plain wrong there
    I must confess that initially I thought both might be Ok but events proved me and many others… wrong
    Actually Labor’s leadership in Canberra has had a long run of outs…remember Latham..what a creep..and Simon Crean…decent.honest. and a classic bore…and others too

    Hopefully the present man will do better

  • 837
    deblonay
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    But why PvO say to the coalition….” remarkable…but dont panic” ???

  • 838
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    Steve777

    Today’s young people are being double rammied

    First the uni fees will be paid back at higher interest
    &
    Employers expect job seekers to have experience relevant to the industry but the Liberals are saying just get a job or you get nothing

    Clearly this government has no understanding of hiring or recruitment or the notice of the need to match skills with key selection criteria.

    This government should never be referred too as pro-business as they clearly don’t understand employers and don’t understand the modern economy.

  • 839
    pjarmer
    Posted Monday, May 19, 2014 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    Welcome to the Abbottoir! ‘Work sets you free’

    Taking the Australian people like sheep to the slaughter, can’t believe the public didn’t see this coming. Harder to believe the Libs were so stupid to even think for a minute they would get away with such a cruel and heartless budget without a massive public backlash.

    Block supply in the Senate before the next game of Horse Trading begins

  • 840
    Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, May 21, 2014 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    Psephos

    At a doorstop interview at Canberra company Pure Solar on March 14, 2012 Mr Abbott said the Coalition would deliver tax cuts in government. "What you'll get under us are tax cuts without new taxes," he said

    Without new taxes means no new taxes.

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