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Federal Politics 2013-

May 17, 2014

Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor

The first poll since the budget finds it to have been the worst-received budget since 1993, although the Coalition's position on voting intention is no worse than it was already.

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The Sunday News Limited tabloids have published the first poll since the budget, courtesy of Galaxy. Details from the reporting are sketchy, but it is presumably a phone-plus-online poll of around 1400 respondents, assuming it followed the same routine as the previous Galaxy poll a fortnight ago. Two-party preferred is at 53-47 in favour of Labor, up from 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (down one), 38% for Labor (up one) and a new high of 8% for Palmer United (up two). No result is available as yet for the Greens. (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the Greens are down a point to 10%, and that the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1399.)

With regards to the budget, only 41% rate it as good for the economy versus 46% for not good, while fully 74% say they expect to be worse off against only 11% for better off. The former set of numbers are in stark contrast to the Howard government’s first tough budget after it came to power in 1996, which according to Newspoll was rated good for the economy by 59% and bad by only 22%, with 6% opting for neither good nor bad (an option not available from Galaxy). The only other budget since 1995 to have scored a net negative rating from Newspoll on this measure was last year’s, at 35% for good, 37% for bad and 7% for neither).

The results on impact on respondents’ financial position resemble Newspoll’s findings for the politically disastrous budget that John Dawkins brought down after Labor’s election victory in 1993, which had 4% for better off, 74% for worse off and 17% for no change (the latter option again not available from Galaxy). However, whereas the results from 1993 were accompanied by a collapse in support for the Keating government, this poll has two-party preferred unchanged on pre-budget polling.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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840 comments

840 thoughts on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor

  1. briefly

    Some of the people i spoke to at the rally today, made it quite clear that Abbott and his cronies actions are deliberate. They are just enacting their ideology under the guise of a “budget emergency”
    The fact that they have failed to convince the electorate, is a serious problem for them now.
    What to do

  2. Rudd would have been a legend had he not thought Green with his pink batts scheme and had the Loons supported the CPRS.

    Gillard would have been a legend had she kept away.

    Lets Y A W N move on!

  3. Good post Bob’s Uncle.
    Couldn’t agree more.
    Once you let the right shift the debate to their terms and their extreme ideology becomes the centre almost, you nearly have lost the debate.

  4. briefly:

    We’re apparently expecting a very strong cold front to hit us towards the end of the week. Winds to 65km/hr.

  5. I have read Elder’s latest piece

    [The real political game, as it was under Howard, is to force the Coalition out of office at the state level so that the Coalition is not conflicted or diverted politically between federal and state governments. For the Manichean Abbott, the federal-state blame game can be clarified by abandoning state government (and its pernicious moderating influences) to Labor.]

    It may have dawned on the premiers today that this is indeed the coalition game plan. They were scathing of Abbott and Co

  6. ICAC has a few more days this week. Chris Hartcher is the man of the moment this week. May he melt in the witness box.

    Nathan Tinkler’s evidence on Friday featured him calling Counsel assisting a fuckwit and someone saying “It takes one to know one” in an unspecified context.

  7. All forecast type commentary, but still.

    [Bad news for the farmers and graziers over the winter but more importantly over the Spring/bushfire season. At this stage global models are unanimous in predicting below average rainfalls and average to above average temperatures for most of Eastern and Northern Australia over the next 3-6 months.

    While we expect to see dry conditions in this part of the world for the next few months, the trend for the storm/build up season next wet is quite worrying. The models that do go to 6 months and beyond continue to suggest a moderate to strong El Nino and the rainfall prospects for the early part of the storms season are very low. As you can see here, most of the northern half of Australia is likely to experience a drier than normal start to the storm season.

    Should this trend continue, we may unfortunately be in for a bumper bushfire season starting in late August/September for almost all of Eastern and Northern Australia. Obviously it’s far too early to look ahead to the next cyclone season or the next wet season, but the build up to it is not likely to be very positive. (Nitso)

    The image below is a multi model ensemble that shows the probability of achieving above average rainfalls across two separate three month periods.]
    https://www.facebook.com/ozcyclonechasers/photos/a.264240050298803.64719.251725551550253/699500406772763/?type=1&theater

  8. [deblonay
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    ….

    As far as TP and me and our views.are concerned ..it might be a case of Great Minds often think alike !
    ]

    Fools never differ, but who cares.

    Once upon a time the Rudd spear throwers mattered; the damage the did mattered; but in 2014 two little spear throwers ain’t going to stop the Australia doing what Australia is going to do: Rudd’s going to be the excuse; Rudd’s going to hell.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/16/kevin-rudd-disgraced-himself-father-installer-inquiry

  9. maybe PVO has seen Neilsen?

    [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 2m
    A message for the Coalition ahead of tomorrow… DON’T PANIC!]

  10. “Remarkable”? If it was PvO who posted that I’d say it’s a swing to the Coalition.

    Don’t know anything about Paul Austin though.

  11. “@vanOnselenP: A message for the Coalition ahead of tomorrow… DON’T PANIC!”

    Someone who knows PvO better than me on tweets about polling can attempt to read tealeaves

  12. fess
    [We’re apparently expecting a very strong cold front to hit us towards the end of the week. Winds to 65km/hr.]

    Just realised you’re Janet Henfrey (Mrs Bale, As Time Goes By)

  13. Centre

    [We’ve had top autumn weather in Sydney.

    Could it be that the pollution is just right?]

    Best climate among the Oz capitals

  14. I’m predicting either unchanged or a 1 point swing to the government. “Remarkable” means not what the public expected. It’s also perfectly consistent with van Oscillator.

  15. vic

    Just spoke to youngest son, as he was getting off train at Tottenham from rally.

    He reckoned the consensus was 15,000 attended. What say you?

    All I could tell him was The Age reported “thousands”.

    And he and his cohorts are going to back on Wednesday for the students/pensioners rally – hopefully better organised, says he.

  16. [Centre
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    frednk

    He’s probably an avid Liberal voter, sheesh!
    ]
    He is probable a farther that lost his son.

  17. FredNK
    ___________Re my views and those of TP…youj could have read what I said in the past

    While TP and me do share many similar views..;..I have never on this site voiced admiration for either Gillard or Rudd…you are plain wrong there
    I must confess that initially I thought both might be Ok but events proved me and many others… wrong
    Actually Labor’s leadership in Canberra has had a long run of outs…remember Latham..what a creep..and Simon Crean…decent.honest. and a classic bore…and others too

    Hopefully the present man will do better

  18. Steve777

    Today’s young people are being double rammied

    First the uni fees will be paid back at higher interest
    &
    Employers expect job seekers to have experience relevant to the industry but the Liberals are saying just get a job or you get nothing

    Clearly this government has no understanding of hiring or recruitment or the notice of the need to match skills with key selection criteria.

    This government should never be referred too as pro-business as they clearly don’t understand employers and don’t understand the modern economy.

  19. Welcome to the Abbottoir! ‘Work sets you free’

    Taking the Australian people like sheep to the slaughter, can’t believe the public didn’t see this coming. Harder to believe the Libs were so stupid to even think for a minute they would get away with such a cruel and heartless budget without a massive public backlash.

    Block supply in the Senate before the next game of Horse Trading begins

  20. Psephos

    [At a doorstop interview at Canberra company Pure Solar on March 14, 2012 Mr Abbott said the Coalition would deliver tax cuts in government. “What you’ll get under us are tax cuts without new taxes,” he said
    ]

    Without new taxes means no new taxes.