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Federal Politics 2013-

May 17, 2014

Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor

The first poll since the budget finds it to have been the worst-received budget since 1993, although the Coalition's position on voting intention is no worse than it was already.

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The Sunday News Limited tabloids have published the first poll since the budget, courtesy of Galaxy. Details from the reporting are sketchy, but it is presumably a phone-plus-online poll of around 1400 respondents, assuming it followed the same routine as the previous Galaxy poll a fortnight ago. Two-party preferred is at 53-47 in favour of Labor, up from 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (down one), 38% for Labor (up one) and a new high of 8% for Palmer United (up two). No result is available as yet for the Greens. (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the Greens are down a point to 10%, and that the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1399.)

With regards to the budget, only 41% rate it as good for the economy versus 46% for not good, while fully 74% say they expect to be worse off against only 11% for better off. The former set of numbers are in stark contrast to the Howard government’s first tough budget after it came to power in 1996, which according to Newspoll was rated good for the economy by 59% and bad by only 22%, with 6% opting for neither good nor bad (an option not available from Galaxy). The only other budget since 1995 to have scored a net negative rating from Newspoll on this measure was last year’s, at 35% for good, 37% for bad and 7% for neither).

The results on impact on respondents’ financial position resemble Newspoll’s findings for the politically disastrous budget that John Dawkins brought down after Labor’s election victory in 1993, which had 4% for better off, 74% for worse off and 17% for no change (the latter option again not available from Galaxy). However, whereas the results from 1993 were accompanied by a collapse in support for the Keating government, this poll has two-party preferred unchanged on pre-budget polling.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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840 comments

840 thoughts on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor

  1. Thomas. Paine.

    [Except that Labor wasn’t tearing itself apart – that was a confection of the media’s.

    Gillard became PM unopposed. When Rudd challenged her later, she had a record majority of MPs supporting her.

    A small minority of dedicated whingers kept undermining their own government. You get them in any party – the Liberals have them in record numbers! – and usually they’re dismissed by the media as dissatisfied nutters.]

    Really Zoomsster you are pathetic…I guess you have to trott this stuff out to fit in with your chosen faction..who knows why the dishonesty.

    It is a thing of amazement that during all her term never once could her disciples bring themselves to put any blame on her at all. The first leader, captain, PM, President etc in history (except Nth Korea) that was exempt from blame for the performance of their government.

    That is how desperate and how deeply in denial they are, her abysmal, Labor destroying performance was not her fault at all apparently…though she had a long time to perform.

    Ohh it had to be Rudd. But the reality is that if she was any sort of PM and national leader at all there would never arise the need for leadership speculation. And if Rudd wasn’t around it most certainly would have been someone else….since labor in the end did not want to be destroyed back to the stone age.

    AND let us not overlook the incredible hypocrisy of Zoomster and her ilk. Gillard and her team a full 12 months before hand at least, planned and executed a leaking, undermining and ambushing of PM Rudd, purely for factional power play reasons. The plan hatched long before any of these later memes could have been evident.

    AND to make matters 1000% worse.. not only did they plan and back stabb a popular and electorally performing PM (52/48)…they back stabbed a first term PM, they back stabbed a PM who bought labor in out of a very long time in opposition, a PM that defeated Howard even in his own seat.

    The very reason we have Abbott now is because of Gillard and her teams dishonesty and selfish grab for power.

  2. briefly

    672
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    Once again, she misunderestimated Abbott. It’s hard to believe just how vicious and focused this bloke can be. It’s fooled many of his opponents in the past. The losers have all had trouble believing that any one man could be so antagonistic and malignant towards them. He has no mercy at all, no real human feelings.

    [That’s why I’m relishing his eventual demise. I hope the polls continue to tank for the coalition, and that Abbott is forced to endure the public ridicule Gillard did by virtue of his satisfaction/approval ratings continuing into freefall.

    If his leadership bleeds out over the next 2 years to the point where they have to knock him off in order to have a reasonable chance at the next election, then all well and good. Even better would be Abbott seeing his govt be a one term govt meaning he gets his arse booted out for good.]

    I say beware.

    The Tories are past masters at creating division, creating fear and offering “something for nothing deals”. I can see it now. Given the chance, they will go to the election promising to abolish the Medicare Levy while also abolishing the Commonwealth Department of Health and promising extra taxing powers for the States.

    They will try the same thing on with education – promise to support the States or private sector schools in any way they ask – while also abolishing the Commonwealth Education Department.

    They have a model, which is Howard’s termination of labour market programs, the dissolution of the Department of Employment and the privatisation/ outsourcing of labour market support services – something that is an ineffectual con.

    All of this will be sold as the end of duplication, as a means of reducing taxes, achieving smaller Government and ending the Age of Entitlement. What it really will be is a dismantling of State-sponsored mutual social insurance for medical, educational, invalidity and unemployment costs. The intention is to reverse the system of State-directed social and economic mobility and restore a re-stratified social order.

    Given the chance, they will also legislate against unions. They will make it more difficult to organise and recruit members, take industrial action and engage in political campaigns. If they can get away with this, they will also try to abolish the minimum wage.

    If they can get away with all this, they will try to provoke a reaction from the unions so they can run the mother of all scare campaigns – a massive “Who runs the country?” fear and loathing project.

    This is the game plan. It’s plain as day.

  3. confessions

    zoid:

    Thanks. Still not feeling PUP as a great saviour of the country that commenters regularly espouse here.

  4. deblonay

    The malaysian aircraft mystery
    ___________
    A new book looks at the possibility that the aircraft was shot down by the US which was conducting military exercises over the Gulf of Thailand on that night….a fact
    I hadn’t heard of before
    The author
    says if they did the Americans would have denied or con cealed the fact…not having any wish to get the blame and being underb no pressure to tell the truth

    Some years ago they did shoot down an Iranian aircraft over the Gulf by accident which they were forced to admid..reluctantly,,,and push down the memory hole,,,but the Iranians remember…ao all the fruitless searching of the WA coast was an elaborate lie
    Would Abbott have known.??..and he would have lied willingly if told too by his masters in the Pentagon

    see book review

  5. Centre

    Kenny reckons that Abbott has not broken promises because they don’t come into effect for 3 years and there will be an election before that time.

    Hello…why put it into this budget? Why not propose it before an election?

    What a numbskull he (Kenny) is, truly!

  6. Thomas. Paine.

    [zoomster #679

    The treasonous Rudd faction was intent on systematically tearing the Govts primary vote down by working in concert with Murdoch, which in effect tore the ALP apart.

    The drovers dog could’ve led the Conservatives to victory, Actually would much prefer a drovers dog as PM right now.]

    And let us not forget Rex’s extreme and irrational butt-hurtedness over Rudd.

    So if we talk of Treason let us talk of Gillard…or is one allowed to murder because you fancy them but you can accuse another for the same.

    It was Gillard’s backers that were intent on dragging Labor down to get to Rudd, he was way too popular..hence the leaking, ambushing and so forth…and even then he was still on 52/48…. and because there was zero reason to betray the public and Rudd they had to try and character assassinate him.

    Rex and Zoomster have their childish little tantrums and lash out at Rudd. You can just see them saying ‘ i hate you mummy’

  7. zoidlord

    @Centre/746

    Yeah, like calling a DD now would help.

  8. Bushfire Bill

    [Thanks. Still not feeling PUP as a great saviour of the country that commenters regularly espouse here.]

    Gotta agree with you there Confie.

    The only thing that would change my mind is if Palmer agreed to a lockup with top Climate scientists over a weekend and changed his silly mind on Global Warming.

  9. confessions

    briefly:

    I’ve no doubt that’s the plan. I’m just saying that Abbott’s time will eventually come, and when it does I’ll relish it. I just hope his time comes sooner rather than later.

  10. William Bowe

    TP, aren’t you just the teensiest bit bothered about the fact that you’re the most boring man alive?

  11. Henry

    Geez William that’s harsh.
    Harsh but fair.

  12. Steve777

    Re Thomas Paine @741: The very reason we have Abbott now is because of Gillard and her teams dishonesty and selfish grab for power.

    I respectfully beg to disagree. While Labor disunity didn’t help, both Rudd and Gillard were hopeless at getting their message across after the first year or so. Both were poor at the impementation of good policy. And Rudd seemed to go into a funk after the rejection of the CPRS. He might have recovered given time, but who knows.

    But the Dark side had 70% of the old media actively campaigning for them for four years. While Labor in the early days had (50 + x)% of the people on it’s side in early 2010, it had 95% of the money against it. The virulent campaign to drive Labour out of office that ran from 2010 to 2013 would most probably have worked whoever was leader – Rudd, Gillard, Jesus or an inanimate carbon rod. Blaming everything on Julia Gillard is a very long bow.

  13. Bushfire Bill

    Eric Abetz is more boring.

  14. roger bottomley

    William, that is a bit cruel re TP. This is the most boring man alive:

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iqgAj2bMxCo

  15. briefly

    Regarding uni fees, in my own family the damage would be very widespread. The casualties of Abbotts’ ambush include 1 nurse, 2 primary teachers, 1 psychologist, 1 lawyer, 2 engineers, 1 audiologist, 1 academic, 1 pharmacist, 1 nutritionist, 1 draftsman. That’s 12 young people from the generation that includes my own children and various nieces and nephews or their partners.

    If Abbott succeeds not only will he gouge many thousands from each of them, because he intends to disrupt the funding of education and health services for years to come, he may well completely over-turn their career plans and life-time opportunities.

    What an evil monster he is.

  16. confessions

    BB:

    There’s nothing in anything Palmer has either said or done that leads me to believe that he acts other than solely in his interests. I’d like to think he’s messing with coalition heads, but at the end of the day I suspect his vote, and the vote of his party MPs can and will be bought if the price is right. Irrespective of whatever position he may have taken yesterday, last week, last month or even last year.

    I’m just not buying the love for Palmer here. He’s too flaky, too populist and therefore too risky to rely on to be a genuine national interest force in the Senate.

  17. roger bottomley

    Henry, I believe it is “cruel but fair”.

  18. deblonay

    TP It’s matter of opinion of course,but I like your style

  19. briefly

    [751
    William Bowe

    TP, aren’t you just the teensiest bit bothered about the fact that you’re the most boring man alive?]

    Someone has to be the village idiot, William. It might as well be TP. He seems to enjoy it.

  20. zoomster

    Apologies for setting off the Paine engine…and I was so careful not to mention He Who Must Not Be Named.

  21. mari

    Bushfire Bill

    Thank you for your good wishes

    My only suggestion to you is to scroll through my comments

  22. Dee

    Palmer whacking the Coalition over the head re: ‘budget crisis” calling them “liars” is most welcome.

    But, Palmer will roll over as soon as he gets his tummy rub.

    I see Pyne has been assigned this job.

  23. Bushfire Bill

    [I’m just not buying the love for Palmer here. He’s too flaky, too populist and therefore too risky to rely on to be a genuine national interest force in the Senate.]

    You put your case well, Fess. You’re probably right.

    But someone should at least try. Maybe challenge him to hear the truth on CC.

    And then, when it turns out he’d rather go on what some dodgy*** blog site says, at least we know for sure.

    ———-
    *** as opposed to non-dodgy ones.

  24. deblonay

    Re Palmer post 757

    ______________
    I don’t knopw how you would”buy” Palmers vote…not with money or services if any kind..hje cvan buy whatever he wants
    He is after all very wealthy

    I suspect a key is his hatred of Newman and more so ,…of Monster Murdoch…for whom his hatred can barely be concealed

    Great stuff and a terrible worry for Abbott

  25. mari

    Thank you Confessions Centre and Steve

    Re Schnappi, I just wish I could do more as I am very worried.. Hopefully something will turn up. Centre yes re police, I asked if they could chase twitter ot email provider for more info, they just told me they would follow and let me know, I told them I was going O/S but could be contacted through my email address. Have heard nothing so far

  26. Steve777

    Re Palmer. I don’t trust him. But I live in Joe Hockey’s electorate. There is no chance of Labor getting up in North Sydney but a credible independent (Ted Mack) did 20 years ago. If there were a passable Palmer candidate I would vote for them in the hope of damaging the Abbott Government by getting rid of Joe. My preferences would then go ALP, Green and so on with Joe last.

  27. briefly

    confessions, i think Palmer will eventually swing round to opposing every budget measure put up by Abbott. This offers the quickest, easiest, cheapest way to accumulate votes.

    The only things he is highly likely to support are repeal of the CPM and the MRRT. However, because he probably pays little no MRRT, he may well play games with Abbott on that one too.

  28. deblonay

    Re TP
    Village idiot he is not!!
    Such tedious comment from Briefly is just silly
    TP marshalls much evidence and is a man of some passion

    I enjoy his scorn for some like Psephos, who sees himself as all knowing…(a know all ?)who when around derides all his question his word or his unashamed zionism

    Keep it up Tom

  29. sceptic

    Not sure about Clive

    But he ( Clive ) acknowledged he has a good relationship with the architect of the reforms, Education Minister Christopher Pyne, who the Prime Minister has made responsible for managing government communication with Mr Palmer.

    ”I’ve known Christopher Pyne for a long time,” Mr Palmer said. ”He’s a very entertaining member of Parliament.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmer-more-open-to-hike-in-student-loans-20140517-38gw6.html#ixzz323ytXieG

  30. J341983

    I can’t stand Pyne, but he’s certainly ‘entertaining’

  31. psyclaw

    Confessions

    “I’m just not buying the love for Palmer here. He’s too flaky, too populist”

    That’s true, but he is a human and like all of us needs to save face at least a bit, and Abbott’s manifest disrespect for him thus far must stimulate a modicum of ire.

    He may be able to herd his cats to knock back one or two bits of the budget …. who knows …. but whatever happens I think he’ll at least bring about some amendments and backdowns, if his personal will does prevail.

    If his personal will does not prevail on his hotch potch of senators, god knows how the cards will fall.

  32. Bob's Uncle

    I’ve read a lot of commentary since the budget and am watching Abbott on Insiders being questioned by Fran. It’s clear that the Gov is very close to getting away with winning a huge part of the debate without much challenge at all.

    In the same way it is “accepted wisdom” that HIP was a deadly debacle, and that BER was a huge waste of cash and that the stimulus was overdone (if not unnecessary), it is now becoming accepted wisdom that deep cuts of some kind are necessary (just a matter of what is cut and how much) and that the Coalition are “getting the deficit under control”.

    Why is it so rarely mentioned that:

    * they are not actually cutting spending. Spending as a % of GDP will be higher during this Term than it was under the last 3 years of Labor;

    * they are not actually reducing the deficit any faster than it was already forecast under Labor. Labor’s last deficit was under $19 billion – the first deficit forecast following huge cuts under the Coalition is forecast to be $31 billion.

    It seems obvious that the controversial cuts are paying for PPL, company tax cuts, MRRT removal, carbon price removal, new Direct Action farce, FBT breaks, removal of Super tax and even a quarter of a billion for bloody school chaplains.

    Letting the government get away unchallenged (relatively) with their false claim that the cuts are necessary for reducing the deficit is ceding one of the most important arguments – it is giving the government a legitimate reason for the cuts besides simple ideology.

    Now Lenor Taylor on insiders is making the same mistake – saying that we “must have a chat about the GST”, again ignoring the reasons for the cuts.

    Let’s have the proper debate: do we want Gonski or the PPL?

    Do we want a Medicare surcharge or do we want to get rid of the mining tax?

    Do we want to cut the CSIRO to the bone or do we want to stop increased funding for school chaplains?

    Do we want the NDIS or do we want a company tax cut?

    Do we want to slash welfare for under 30’s or do we want to tighten FBT rules?

    Yes everything is a matter of priorities but why is only one side of the equation negotiable?

    And that is before I even start on Superannuation and negative gearing…

    Yes there is a bit of commentary along these lines, but very little mainstream. Focusing only on broken promises, or only on the effects of the cuts without continuing to drive home the REAL reason for a lot of the cuts is short-sighted and risky.

    IMHO of course!

  33. Keyman

    Thomas. Paine – Rudd and his backers gave us the Abbott government and I don’t thank him for that. He was a dysfunctional PM and thank goodness Gillard did the heavy lifting for 3 years for the betterment of the country. What a shame Abbott is doing repairable damage now but I guess to ideologues that does not matter. Move on FFS

  34. deblonay

    More re Palkmer
    ———-
    If he can get into a position in Gland where he can get Green prefs and then leap-from ober Labor in many safer Lib seats he may win many in the swing aaginst Newman

    He might do the same in the Vic Upper House,or even some assembly seats if he can capture disillusioned Lib voters …though I suspect the Vic public is a great deal more sophisticated than those in QLand

  35. briefly

    [769
    deblonay

    Re TP
    Village idiot he is not!!
    Such tedious comment from Briefly is just silly
    TP marshalls much evidence and is a man of some passion]

    Are you his understudy?

  36. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    I went to the Adelaide March in May, today. There were thousands of people, lots of signs (the funniest one imo said, “Abbott is a vampire.”).

  37. confessions

    [But someone should at least try. Maybe challenge him to hear the truth on CC.]

    Palmer’s company reportedly hasn’t paid his carbon price ‘bill’ (for want of a better word for it), and threatened High Court action against the then govt over imposing carbon pricing.

    Yes he appears opposed to ABbott’s expensive, regressive DA, but this shouldn’t be taken as him accepting the scientific consensus of AGW.

  38. Keyman

    Sorry repairable = ireparable

  39. confessions

    mari:

    Enjoy your holiday. You’ve done all you can, and I’m sorry for bringing up the subject and worrying you all over again. You can’t do any more.

  40. briefly

    Palmer may have an accumulated MRRT credit by now….we cannot know, of course. If this were the case, he may benefit by maintaining the MRRT for a while. He could very well just abstain on the MRRT – would be smart politics – and then Abbott would be unable to amend it.

  41. psyclaw

    Speaking of herding cats, here’s what the future might hold, from an ABC RN report a few days back.

    Evidently the governorship of Idaho is up for grabs and a public debate was held.

    The Republican governor refused to participate in a debate with the Democrat challenger unless all the micro loons up for election were also invited.

    His purpose was to blunt any attack on himself by the Democrat, by the time allowed being widely shared into small portions for each of the many candidates.

    Some well known media identity (their “Ray Martin”, but a lady) was moderator.

    Some of the micro loons made the Tea Party candidate look like a left wing progressive.

    The moderator came under a little tongue in cheek criticism because she had to continually place her hand over her mouth and face, to hide her laughter so ridiculous were the claims and policies of the loons.

  42. briefly

    777
    confessions

    I think he has paid his CPM bill. Now he wants his money back.

  43. Centre

    mari

    The police should have more information by now. Maybe some other Victorian Bludgers that know their MP’s can get the cops to pull finger out.

  44. deblonay

    Palmer also makes a big thing of his concern for the Oldies…many of who are just realising that their long -held conservative voting habits are doing them no good…they may be attracted to Palmer in the months ahead

    I know of two such oldies..both Libs…but ones who are shocked to learn how their comfortable but modest lifestyles will be affected ,and are both a bit worried by it all ..and far from happy

  45. absolutetwaddle

    I’m operating under the theory that TP and deblonay are the same person.

  46. frednk

    Just been to a family do. Normally pretty entertaining as there be Liberals voters there.

    -No-one willing to defend the destruction of Medicare.
    -No-one to defend the destruction of the NBN, it’s been done in South Korea; what it their problem was one comment.
    -No-one willing to defend the destruction of the ETS.
    -None willing to disagree that spending a bit on the dole is cheaper than locking people up because they have no other option other than crime.
    -Noone willing to defend these people that got their education for free increasing the cost of education for their kid.

    I got to rant against Abbott and there was silence.

    Who did there blame for their terrible mistake; believing the Liberals were still the Liberals; not a bunch of radicals.

    Sorry TP, it was Rudd.

    Myself I don’t care about the Gillard/Rudd thing but there you are; Australia stuffed up; Australia is to blame, Rudd is nothing more than the excuse.

    Australia is sending Rudd to hell and Gillard to sainthood.

  47. Steve777

    Re student fees. I had a look in the Sydney University Calender for 1972, a time before Whitlam abolished fees. Typically they were around $500 per annum, or around $1,600 for a 3 year basic degree in Arts or Science. About $3,300 for Vet Science. If you check the RBA inflation calculator you can multiply by about 10 to convert to today’s values. And back then degrees weren’t required for everything.

    We are really doing today’s young people a grave disservice crushing them with debt at the outset of their career. There’s got to be abetter way. There is. Shred the Abbott Government to start with.

  48. confessions

    briefly:

    Not sure about that. I think PUP needs to be strategic in what it opposes from the govt, pick the fights it can win support on.

    None of this however endears me to PUP. Already I’ve waned away from Palmer because of his flip flopping on various issues. It fills me with dread, and the only silver lining is that it’s a coalition govt which has to deal with his uncertainty, which I’m sure they’ll counter by throwing money and perks at his interests. Just like Howard did with recalcitrant Senate obstruction.

  49. Player One

    [ Australia is sending Rudd to hell and Gillard to sainthood. ]

    And will be sending Abbott to join Rudd shortly.

  50. confessions

    [I think he has paid his CPM bill. Now he wants his money back.]

    Great. Not.

    That’s even worse. Vested Interests Central, not Palmer United Party.

  51. sceptic

    Zoidlord

    Questions for Joe on Q & A …….

    1…. Does your family trust ( or you ) have any mortgages on property, what proportion of your annual income does the borrowing represent?

    2… How does this compare with Australia’s debt to GDP ration?

  52. briefly

    789
    confessions

    I hear you, confessions…hoping against hope that Palmer surprises on the upside… 🙂

  53. Kevin Bonham

    I’ve retrieved all the old Nielsen yearly polling PDFs that used to be on their website, and anyone who wants a copy I can email them to (email requests to me at k_bonham@tassie.net.au, do not post them here as I may not see them.) 1996-2011, missing 2002, gappy in some other years.

    I’ve previously tried to use Wayback to recover these data without success but this time I was successful.

  54. Kevin Bonham

    Speaking of Nielsen, must be very close to the witching hour if it is emerging this week; anyone know?

  55. guytaur

    Confessions

    Palmer is not stupid he knows Labor will not block supply. He will stick to his word on medicare and pensions because its in his self interest.

    Thus Abbott will be exposed as the coward he is as no DD called after triggers provided. OF course that is if you had not worked that out about Abbott after todays walk away from election rhetoric.

  56. deblonay

    786 Twaddle re TP and Deblonay
    __________
    Given the nonsense theories you put on this site I’m not a bit surprised at what you believe..Twaddle

    As far as TP and me and our views.are concerned ..it might be a case of Great Minds often think alike !

  57. Centre

    Attacking the lowest income earners is economically bad policy whereas a rise in the high income tax will not harm the economy.

    You should be very careful when taxing the people who spend all their money. If they have less to spend, there MUST be less sales of goods and services. That leads to less profits, less jobs and lower taxation revenues.

    I’m really sick of right wing ideology and the L OO NS with their desire for big sexy deficits are no better.

  58. The Lorax

    Bob’s Uncle @ 773: Well said. There is a lot of fat in the budget that no-one is talking about.

  59. victoria

    briefly

    Some of the people i spoke to at the rally today, made it quite clear that Abbott and his cronies actions are deliberate. They are just enacting their ideology under the guise of a “budget emergency”
    The fact that they have failed to convince the electorate, is a serious problem for them now.
    What to do

  60. Centre

    Rudd would have been a legend had he not thought Green with his pink batts scheme and had the Loons supported the CPRS.

    Gillard would have been a legend had she kept away.

    Lets Y A W N move on!

  61. Henry

    Good post Bob’s Uncle.
    Couldn’t agree more.
    Once you let the right shift the debate to their terms and their extreme ideology becomes the centre almost, you nearly have lost the debate.

  62. Leroy Lynch

    Community Editor of The Age
    https://twitter.com/Agecommunity/status/467977850339872768
    [Paul Austin ‏@Agecommunity
    Remarkable post-Budget Age/Nielsen Poll, exclusive in tomorrow’s @theage #auspol #Budget2014
    8:39 PM – 18 May 2014]
    No way of knowing what that means. Don’t know much about Paul.

  63. confessions

    briefly:

    We’re apparently expecting a very strong cold front to hit us towards the end of the week. Winds to 65km/hr.

  64. zoidlord

    @Leroy/804

    Thanks,

    We prob find out through James J or Ghost tonight then.

  65. victoria

    I have read Elder’s latest piece

    [The real political game, as it was under Howard, is to force the Coalition out of office at the state level so that the Coalition is not conflicted or diverted politically between federal and state governments. For the Manichean Abbott, the federal-state blame game can be clarified by abandoning state government (and its pernicious moderating influences) to Labor.]

    It may have dawned on the premiers today that this is indeed the coalition game plan. They were scathing of Abbott and Co

  66. Centre

    We’ve had top autumn weather in Sydney.

    Could it be that the pollution is just right?

    *ducks and runs 😈

  67. J341983

    “Remarkable” could be swing to the Government or complete collapse.

  68. shellbell

    ICAC has a few more days this week. Chris Hartcher is the man of the moment this week. May he melt in the witness box.

    Nathan Tinkler’s evidence on Friday featured him calling Counsel assisting a fuckwit and someone saying “It takes one to know one” in an unspecified context.

  69. confessions

    All forecast type commentary, but still.

    [Bad news for the farmers and graziers over the winter but more importantly over the Spring/bushfire season. At this stage global models are unanimous in predicting below average rainfalls and average to above average temperatures for most of Eastern and Northern Australia over the next 3-6 months.

    While we expect to see dry conditions in this part of the world for the next few months, the trend for the storm/build up season next wet is quite worrying. The models that do go to 6 months and beyond continue to suggest a moderate to strong El Nino and the rainfall prospects for the early part of the storms season are very low. As you can see here, most of the northern half of Australia is likely to experience a drier than normal start to the storm season.

    Should this trend continue, we may unfortunately be in for a bumper bushfire season starting in late August/September for almost all of Eastern and Northern Australia. Obviously it’s far too early to look ahead to the next cyclone season or the next wet season, but the build up to it is not likely to be very positive. (Nitso)

    The image below is a multi model ensemble that shows the probability of achieving above average rainfalls across two separate three month periods.]
    https://www.facebook.com/ozcyclonechasers/photos/a.264240050298803.64719.251725551550253/699500406772763/?type=1&theater

  70. frednk

    [deblonay
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    ….

    As far as TP and me and our views.are concerned ..it might be a case of Great Minds often think alike !
    ]

    Fools never differ, but who cares.

    Once upon a time the Rudd spear throwers mattered; the damage the did mattered; but in 2014 two little spear throwers ain’t going to stop the Australia doing what Australia is going to do: Rudd’s going to be the excuse; Rudd’s going to hell.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/16/kevin-rudd-disgraced-himself-father-installer-inquiry

  71. sprocket_

    maybe PVO has seen Neilsen?

    [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 2m
    A message for the Coalition ahead of tomorrow… DON’T PANIC!]

  72. Centre

    MY tip 56/44 to Labor.

  73. gloryconsequence

    “Remarkable”? If it was PvO who posted that I’d say it’s a swing to the Coalition.

    Don’t know anything about Paul Austin though.

  74. Leroy Lynch

    PvO
    https://twitter.com/vanOnselenP/status/467989130429755392
    [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP
    A message for the Coalition ahead of tomorrow… DON’T PANIC!
    9:24 PM – 18 May 2014]

  75. guytaur

    “@vanOnselenP: A message for the Coalition ahead of tomorrow… DON’T PANIC!”

    Someone who knows PvO better than me on tweets about polling can attempt to read tealeaves

  76. kezza2

    fess
    [We’re apparently expecting a very strong cold front to hit us towards the end of the week. Winds to 65km/hr.]

    Just realised you’re Janet Henfrey (Mrs Bale, As Time Goes By)

  77. shellbell

    Centre

    [We’ve had top autumn weather in Sydney.

    Could it be that the pollution is just right?]

    Best climate among the Oz capitals

  78. J341983

    Or maybe he’s heard rumbles about Newspoll…

  79. Centre

    frednk

    He’s probably an avid Liberal voter, sheesh!

  80. soyaking

    I’m predicting either unchanged or a 1 point swing to the government. “Remarkable” means not what the public expected. It’s also perfectly consistent with van Oscillator.

  81. Player One

    gloryconsequence@816

    “Remarkable”?

    Perhaps “remarkable” because there’s no change at all?

  82. Centre

    shellbell

    They’re polluting at the right spot 😈

  83. zoidlord

    Knowing PvO he’s probably meaning the opposite of what he says.

  84. shellbell

    Paul Austin is just marketing Fairfax publications

  85. J341983

    @824… yes, a static Nielsen would also qualify as ‘remarkable’

  86. guytaur

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 44 (-4) ALP 56 (+4) #auspol”

  87. kezza2

    vic

    Just spoke to youngest son, as he was getting off train at Tottenham from rally.

    He reckoned the consensus was 15,000 attended. What say you?

    All I could tell him was The Age reported “thousands”.

    And he and his cohorts are going to back on Wednesday for the students/pensioners rally – hopefully better organised, says he.

  88. frednk

    [Centre
    Posted Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    frednk

    He’s probably an avid Liberal voter, sheesh!
    ]
    He is probable a farther that lost his son.

  89. imacca

    [ Is this legal tender?

    https://twitter.com/Mysta/status/467951359778508800/photo/1/large ]

    I would have thought with JoHo it would be an eleventy dollar Bill??

  90. deblonay

    FredNK
    ___________Re my views and those of TP…youj could have read what I said in the past

    While TP and me do share many similar views..;..I have never on this site voiced admiration for either Gillard or Rudd…you are plain wrong there
    I must confess that initially I thought both might be Ok but events proved me and many others… wrong
    Actually Labor’s leadership in Canberra has had a long run of outs…remember Latham..what a creep..and Simon Crean…decent.honest. and a classic bore…and others too

    Hopefully the present man will do better

  91. deblonay

    But why PvO say to the coalition….” remarkable…but dont panic” ???

  92. mexicanbeemer

    Steve777

    Today’s young people are being double rammied

    First the uni fees will be paid back at higher interest
    &
    Employers expect job seekers to have experience relevant to the industry but the Liberals are saying just get a job or you get nothing

    Clearly this government has no understanding of hiring or recruitment or the notice of the need to match skills with key selection criteria.

    This government should never be referred too as pro-business as they clearly don’t understand employers and don’t understand the modern economy.

  93. pjarmer

    Welcome to the Abbottoir! ‘Work sets you free’

    Taking the Australian people like sheep to the slaughter, can’t believe the public didn’t see this coming. Harder to believe the Libs were so stupid to even think for a minute they would get away with such a cruel and heartless budget without a massive public backlash.

    Block supply in the Senate before the next game of Horse Trading begins

  94. Diogenes

    Psephos

    [At a doorstop interview at Canberra company Pure Solar on March 14, 2012 Mr Abbott said the Coalition would deliver tax cuts in government. “What you’ll get under us are tax cuts without new taxes,” he said
    ]

    Without new taxes means no new taxes.