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Federal Politics 2013-

May 18, 2014

Nielsen: 56-44 to Labor; Newspoll: 55-45

The hostile reaction to the government's first budget comes into sharper focus with two bruising new opinion poll results, both of which show Bill Shorten opening up a big lead as preferred prime minister.

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UPDATE (Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS result sings from the same song sheet, with Labor up 1.5% to 38.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 35%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer up a point to 6.5%. Whereas Morgan polls usually combine two weekends of polling, this one is entirely from Saturday and Saturday, so all the responses are post-budget and the sample is somewhat smaller than usual. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead is up from 53.5-46.5 to 56.5-43.5 on 2013 election preferences, and 55-45 to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences.

After a relatively mild result from yesterday’s Galaxy poll, in which the government may have benefited slightly from an earlier polling period (Wednesday to Friday, the budget having been brought down on Tuesday night), two big name pollsters deliver horror results for the Coalition:

• Newspoll, conducted from Friday to Sunday, has Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 55-45, from primary votes of 38% for Labor (up four), 36% for the Coalition (down two), 11% for the Greens (down three) and 15% for others (up one). Worse still for the Coalition are the leadership ratings, which have Tony Abbott down five on approval to 30% and up four on disapproval to 60%, while Bill Shorten leaps seven points on approval to 42% and drops two on disapproval to 39%. Shorten has opened up a big lead of 44-34 as preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 40-38 a fortnight ago. The Australian’s report here.

• Even worse for the Coalition is the monthly Nielsen result in the Fairfax papers. Conducted from Thursday to Saturday, it shows Labor’s lead out to 56-44 from 52-48 a month ago. The primary votes are 40% for Labor (up six), 35% for the Coalition (down five), 14% for the Greens (down three from am implausible result last time, but still very strong) and 6% for Palmer United (up two). Tony Abbott sinks nine points on approval to 34% and adds twelve on disapproval to 62%, whereas Bill Shorten is up four to 47% and down two to 39%, and shoots to a 51-40 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 45-44 last time.

The leadership ratings in particular invite comparison with Julia Gillard’s low points. While Abbott still has a way to go before matching the worst of Gillard’s ratings in Newspoll, his present net approval rating of 28% in Nielsen was exceeded by Gillard on only two occasions, in September and October of 2011, and equalled in July 2011. Gillard’s final result before she lost the leadership in June 2013 was 36% approval and 61% disapproval. Abbott himself scored fractionally worse figures as Opposition Leader in December 2012, of 34% approval and 63% disapproval.

Both pollsters also have results gauging reaction to the budget, with Nielsen finding 63% considering it unfair against 33% for fair. The deficit levy finds support, with 50% in favour and 37% against, but there’s a surprisingly narrow majority of 49% to 46% in favour of abolishing the carbon tax. The poll finds predictably strong opposition to the notion of increasing the GST, with 30% for and 66% against.

Newspoll’s results on budget reaction are particularly illuminating, as it has been asking the same three questions after every budget since 1988. Forty-eight per cent rate this budget as bad for the economy versus 39% for good, with 4% opting for neither; 69% say it will leave them worse off, compared with just 5% for better off and 20% for neither; and 39% believed that Labor would have done a better job, with 46% saying they wouldn’t have.

The latter result can be put into context with the following chart, showing the positive result minus the negative result for the equivalent question going back to 1988, with Labor budgets in red and Coalition budgets in blue. This shows that the only budget to record a net result in favour of yes was in 1993, when the Keating government followed its surprise election win by breaking its L-A-W tax cuts promise. As such, the slight net negative result for this budget is an historically weak one for the government – particularly when taking into account an apparent tendency for governments to perform strongly on this measure when newly elected, and decline thereafter. This takes a good deal of gloss off the consolation the Coalition might have taken in the result being better than the last three for the previous government.

The next chart plots the result for each budget on “impact on own financial position” along the x-axis and impact on the economy along the y, with the current result indicated in red. This shows a clear association between the two results, demonstrating that people generally decide whether a budget is good or bad, and deem it equally so for both themselves and the economy. To the limited extent that variability exists, there does appear to be at least some constituency for the view that the pain inflicted in the current budget will be good for the economy – whereas the trendline indicates that the minus 64% rating on own financial position could be expected to associate with 24.5% on the economy, the latter figure in fact comes in at a relatively presentable minus 9%. Nonetheless, the outstanding fact to emerge from the chart is that the budget inhabits a zone of extreme unpopularity with only 1993 to keep it company. The budget the government might have been hoping to emulate, Peter Costello’s cost-cutting debut of 1996, had a plus 37% rating on the economy despite a minus 21% rating on personal financial situation.

Finally, a table showing the net result for all three measures at each budget, with averages by party at the bottom. This shows that despite the current results, Coalition budgets tend to be better received than Labor ones, with the gap being wider on impact on the economy. Partly this is down to historical circumstance – Labor was marked down for the recession-era budgets of the early 1990s, while the Howard government made political hay out of the revenue boom in its later years in office (though obviously not to the extent of saving them from the electoral cycle in 2007). However, it also reflects the tendency for the Coalition to outperform Labor in “best party to manage the economy” polling, a point illustrated by the averages for “would the opposition have delivered a better budget”. For more context on the individual budgets, here’s a very helpful resource from the Sydney Morning Herald.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1941 comments

1,941 thoughts on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Labor; Newspoll: 55-45

  1. psyclaw

    Zoomster

    The “online members” are exactly those that Bracks, Carr and Faulkner were concerned to recognise and “capture”.

    They are a legitimate part of the Labor movement, and the real counter argument to the charge that the party is a totally union based organisation (and therefore if you can stuff the unions with a RC, you’ll therefore stuff the Party)

    By all means have them in a separate register, probably at state level.

    What a wonderful description of Labor it would be in 10 years time, if the party could promote itself as having 50K “full” members ( the regular branch participants) and 5 million “associate” members ….. those who have pledged allegiance by forking out annual membership $s, and who are prepared to stand up and be counted as that part of the community that is happy to have the Labor party as its societal and political figurehead.

    Many of those “onliners” will of course be active participants in other spheres of the community.

    It is possible to be a loyal Laborite and simultaneously eschew all that active branch membership implies.

    Just ask Bracks, Carr, and Faulkner.

  2. guytaur

    Abbott still lying. Worlds best treasurer does not get AAA rating in a debt crisis

  3. Unitary State

    Can somebody please tell me how much they know about Paul Keating mentoring Bill Shorten?

  4. victoria

    US

    [Shorten wrote his speech on Wednesday and Thursday with help from his speechwriter James Newton (a speech writer in the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet under Labor) and input from colleagues and mentors, including Paul Keating and Bill Kelty.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/bill-shortens-postbudget-reply-high-point-all-in-the-delivery-20140516-zrfib.html#ixzz32D06IegF

  5. zoomster

    psyclaw

    No objection to on line members, just can’t see why they’d be allocated to branches (they’re not at present).

    The Labor party has Central Branch members, who are effectively simply ‘on line members’.

    I just don’t understand why you would shift them to branches. It seems pointless.

    If they want to be involved in the party, they are, by definition, no longer on line members!

  6. briefly

    [1633
    guytaur

    “@TheKouk: Wow! The ANZ-ROy Morgan measure of consumer confidence down approx 14% in less than a month. Not great for spending intentions”]

    I keep banging on about this. To the extent that A&H succeed in selling their political line – that the country is in a bad way and to save the budget there must be biting income sacrifices – then A&H will succeed in talking down the economy.

    Every time Hockey or Abbott go on air to justify their evil cuts, he is stoking consumer fear and talking us into a demand-led recession.

    As has been pointed out numerous times they’re doing this at the same time that export receipts are under pressure.

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/game-over-for-chinese-steel/

    To add to the risk to real disposable incomes, the currency may finally start to yield to the pressure…

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/australian-dollar-looks-vulnerable/

    Of course, a high currency is a serious problem too, as the ever optimistic HSBC economist Paul Bloxham opines…

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/another-bullhawk-down/

    These risks are being felt in Australian interest rate markets. Long term interest rates are falling, a sign that markets expect economic weakness to return.

    I’ve posted here many times and at (probably quite tedious) length about the consequences to incomes, jobs, the budget, property, credit and banking if things come unstuck.

    This Government is actively precipitating the kind of income shock that can bring on a contraction in domestic demand. They seem completely indifferent to this, or to have dismissed these concerns for the sake of their ideological fixations.

    To repeat myself, the last time we were in this sort of situation Bob Hawke and Paul Keating were at the helm. They radically reformed the tax system and strengthened the social wage. Far from starting a recession, they ended one. Now we are going to see what kind of destruction the Tories will conjure up.

  7. psyclaw

    Zoomster

    Fair comment.

  8. victoria

    Barnyard reckons that Clive Palmer is as cunning as a lavatory rat

  9. citizen

    In the alternative reality of Murdoch world, one Oz headline is “Murdoch offers G20 vision”.

    I wonder what that vision would be?

  10. lizzie

    What fools people are.

    [What we are witnessing is the start of the greatest transfer of wealth this nation will ever see – from Australian citizens to foreign investors. As it gathers pace, the rights of landholders and farmers will be trampled upon as a weak political class succumbs to the lobbying of a hugely powerful global industry accustomed to getting its way.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-19/verrender-aussies-steamrolled-by-abbott-and-the-mining-giants/5461094

  11. victoria

    briefly

    Abbott and his cronies are doing nothing to reassure the ciitzenry. Obviously this is part of the plan to dump a percentage of the population on the scrap heap

  12. guytaur

    “@sspencer_63: “I don’t accept that there’s any breach of faith with the Australian people.” Abbott on the Budget.”

  13. psyclaw

    Briefly #1637

    I usually admire your comments.

    But your reply exemplifies the difficulties of the debate. You need to re-read my position.

    The problem with income tax is massive avoidance / minimisation, especially at the top end (Joe’s family trust is an example, not to mention the many other schemes over the years, and new ones constantly being developed by spivs) and outright fraud and non compliance. It’s a walk in the park.

    Not so with a well applied GST, since one thing that the upper end does, does well, does frequently, and does extravagantly is consume.

    The regressive nature of GST can be easily corrected on the tax expenditure side by carefully structured structural rebates.

  14. guytaur

    24 has split screen.

    Abbott on left Thai army on right.

    A suggestion?

  15. briefly

    [1652
    victoria

    Abbott and his cronies are doing nothing to reassure the ciitzenry. Obviously this is part of the plan to dump a percentage of the population on the scrap heap]

    They truly seem to believe that the best way to strengthen the economy is to impoverish most of those who constitute it.

    They’re not only cruel, they’re idiots.

  16. guytaur

    “@political_alert: Treasurer @JoeHockey is in Sydney today and will hold a media conference at 11.30am #auspol #Budget2014”

  17. BK

    Abbott’s new blue tie must be on steroids!

  18. guytaur

    “@TheKouk: Bizarre for a PM to openly flag AAA risk rather than dealing with the issue”

  19. Simon Katich

    The Guardian today –
    [Doubling of Antarctic ice loss revealed by European satellite]

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/may/19/doubling-of-antarctic-ice-loss-revealed-by-european-satellite

    Apologies if this has already been posted – dont have time this morning to check.

  20. victoria

    Women who take time off work to have a baby face paying 30% more than their male counterparts in interest on their university student loans, according to new analysis of the Abbott government’s higher education changes.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/20/women-who-have-a-child-face-paying-30-more-interest-on-student-loans

  21. markjs

    Briefly…

    Your posts are anything but “tedious”

    I’ve learned so much about how our economy works from reading your excellent contributions. Thank you & please keep posting….

    PS: my better half getting sick of me saying: “Briefly says…” 🙂 🙂

  22. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Watch: @Vic_Premier Denis Napthine speaking on the GST and #Budget2014 http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #springst #auspol #abcnews24”

    Napthine does not support inrease in raye or broadening GST base

  23. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Denis Napthine: What I do support and what I will fight for is a fair share of GST being returned to Victorians #springst #auspol”

  24. Bushfire Bill

    [Doubling of Antarctic ice loss revealed by European satellite]

    Last week it was increasing.

    Yes, I know (or think I do) that it was sea ice increasing, and the article is about land ice, but all most punters see is “Antarctic”.

    The messages are confusing.

  25. dave

    guytaur@1653

    “@sspencer_63: “I don’t accept that there’s any breach of faith with the Australian people.” Abbott on the Budget.”

    Abbott’s normal approach – crash or crash through.

  26. markjs

    GST is a regressive tax …and compo is soon diluted until it’s irrelevant.
    Poorest currently getting up to 18% hit to their already meagre income..

    GST also easiest tax to rort/evade using the cash economy… Tradies happy to NOT issue tax receipt & pocket the cash..

    Can’t believe any ALP or other progressive would even contemplate broadening/raising this odious and unequal tax…

  27. guytaur

    +3

    From me for Briefly

  28. mikehilliard

    briefly

    I wouldn’t hold you to this but would changing from a variable to a fixed rate loan be a bad idea at this point in time?

    If you don’t want to answer this question I won’t be offended.

  29. victoria

    The Abbott government’s decision to cut $80bn in health and education funding has left states with a “completely untenable and unsustainable” budget problem, the former Victorian Labor premier John Brumby has said.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/19/john-brumby-says-gst-rise-inevitable-as-states-grapple-with-funding-crisis

  30. BK

    vic
    But . . but . . but there’s NO black hole.

  31. Atticus

    Many blog posts I’ve read here (and elsewhere) say that Hockey did “well”. I can’t help but wonder if it’s got anything to do with expectations of him now being so pathetically low in contrast, say, to Labor supporters’ high bar for Shorten’s answers to every single question at every single presser.

    As a wild surmise, I reckon those Q & A shows which have just the lone Pollie up there bloviating would attract a tv audience of 80 to 90 % rusted-on voters. Just how many of the tiny number of “undecided voters” who watched last night’s program were conned by Hockey that his budget is good for the country we’ll find out whenever Murdoch decides to let us to know.

  32. citizen

    Abbott with a 2UE shock jock this morning:

    [PRIME Minister Tony Abbott is confident people will rally behind his government’s tough budget, even if they do so reluctantly.

    A week after it was handed down, Mr Abbott was on Tuesday continuing his bid to sell the budget to Australians as opinion polls showed many weren’t impressed and thought it was bad for the economy.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/people-will-rally-behind-budget-abbott/story-e6frfku9-1226923631522

  33. guytaur

    I think Labor should get Wayne Swan on Lateline to defend his record.

    World Best treasurer destroying LNP budget emergency lie. MSM will then have to address the central lie

  34. dave

    Those Thai’s – have been listen to abbott –

    [ THAI MILITARY CHANNEL 5 SAYS MARTIAL LAW `NOT A COUP’. Ah, gotta love the New Normal: full of non-coupy martial laws.

    This is how in Thailand people are told to keep calm and keep BTFD:]

    [ URGENT: Thai troops seize TV broadcaster after declaring martial law; ticker message on screen reads “no need to worry” ]


    [

    Thailand’s army declared martial law on Tuesday to restore order after six months of anti-government protests which have left the country without a functioning government.

    The declaration did not constitute a coup and was made in response to deteriorating security, an army general said.

    “We declared a state of emergency, it’s not a coup. Because of the situation, it’s not stable, they kill each other every day,” a general, who declined to be identified, told Reuters.

    Troops were patrolling in Bangkok and had secured television stations, he said.

    “We need cooperation from them to announce to the people ‘do not panic, this is not a coup’,” the general said. ]

  35. Lynchpin

    Hockey did well in the sense he did not lose his cool. He is a pretty accomplished salesman. The problem is he speaks in pretty broad generalisations.

    While there were no “gotcha” moments, I don’t think Hockey convinced many doubters. Many continued to have querelous looks on their faces.

  36. J341983

    @1676 – I completely agree, it’s all well and good to write articles, but getting his face out there and laying out the facts and start a genuine conversation about who the stronger economic manager were.

  37. Atticus

    [GST is a regressive tax …and compo is soon diluted until it’s irrelevant.
    Poorest currently getting up to 18% hit to their already meagre income..

    GST also easiest tax to rort/evade using the cash economy… Tradies happy to NOT issue tax receipt & pocket the cash..

    Can’t believe any ALP or other progressive would even contemplate broadening/raising this odious and unequal tax…]

    Markkjs,
    I just prepared a post nearly word for word as yours. That Brumby and others who condemn the cancer of growing income inequality in Australia should even contemplate a GST expansion/increase is a dead-set “Barry Crocker”.

    I have visited 4 large Western USA cities this past decade, and it would be a tragedy if Australia ends up anywhere near their level of inequality.

  38. guytaur

    “@an_news: Leader of #Thailand’s pro-government “red shirts” Jatuporn Prompan to continue protest until “country is back to democratic principles” .”

  39. dave

    [ I don’t think Hockey convinced many doubters.]

    Agree. Many of his doubters were not even watching.

  40. Libertarian Unionist

    psyclaw @1654

    [The problem with income tax is massive avoidance / minimisation, especially at the top end (Joe’s family trust is an example, not to mention the many other schemes over the years, and new ones constantly being developed by spivs) and outright fraud and non compliance. It’s a walk in the park.]

    That’s why governments should tax things that cannot be moved, like land and mineral resources.

    Take land tax: it’s a wealth tax, it’s not explicitly progressive but is born by the wealthiest, and has the bonus of keeping the costs of shelter, a most basic form of consumption, under control.

  41. Kadaitcha Man

    @1674
    I’m always a bit scared that people will fall for his good bloke act. To me, he has always been a sneering bully, but I don’t know if that perception is widely shared apart from on this blog, perhaps.

  42. Libertarian Unionist

    briefly,
    I think lizzie @1651 has found the LNP’s answer to the growing CAD imbalance – forget productivity, just sell everything.

  43. Libertarian Unionist

    I reckon John Brumby is a stalking horse – good on him for trying to draw the LNP out.

  44. Diogenes

    Z

    When the party leader so publicly calls for reform along those lines, its pretty fair to consider them as Shortens reforms.

    It’s a question of his leadership whether he can drag the party where he wants it to go. If he doesn’t succeed it’s a big minus for his leadership, if he succeeds its a big positive for him.

  45. guytaur

    Shorten presser due shortly

  46. victoria

    Someone just texted message to jon faine, asking what the listeners thought of Hockey’s stellar performance on qanda, and have people changed their mind in light of it

  47. guytaur

    @smh: .@JoeHockey concedes $7 Medicare co-payment is a new tax – but denies the government lied to Australians. http://t.co/xKmT4jeR2I

  48. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: Opposition Leader @BillShortenMP is speaking in Brisbane http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #Budget2014 #auspol”

  49. Tricot

    With the polls looking not so good for the Coalition, karma would suggest now is about time for some political scandal to pop up concerning some Federal member of the LNP.

    It always seemed to be Labor’s fortune in government to go, in sequence – from good, to bad, to worse and then, much worse.

    A bit like General Slim, in Burma, when the allies were being hammered by the Japanese…was reported to have said to his officers, “Well, gentlemen, it could be worse. At least it is not raining.”.

    Whereupon, of course, the heavens opened.

  50. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Bill Shorten: This Budget of broken promises reveals the rotten character of the Abbott Government #Budget2014 #auspol”

  51. zoomster

    The Liberals do need to learn that, if they’re going to stack the audience with Young Libs, it’s a good idea if they’re not wearing suits and ties and look a little less groomed…

  52. citizen

    Is there a hidden meaning in Hockey saying the $7 GP tax could be called a rabbit?

    Was he thinking of “Mr Rabbit” as in JG’s alleged mispronunciation of “Mr Abbott”?

  53. Kadaitcha Man

    @1690
    Well hopefully not too many were watching. Can’t imagine it’s staple viewing for the swinging voters that delivered us this government in the first place.

  54. guytaur

    Shorten showing impact of cuts on someone battling cancer

  55. dave

    [ China Piles Troops, Tanks, Artillery And APCs Near Vietnam Border

    Earlier today, Putin did his usual “we are pulling our forces away from the Ukraine border” gambit (sure he is… and is replacing them with a massive airforce drill)

    but what is shaping up as a far more dangerous escalation is what China is doing next to its border with Vietnam, where as reported previously protesters destroyed Chinese factories and killed Chinese civilians in retaliation over yet another maritime territorial spat.

    According to the Epoch Times, “troops, tanks, trucks, artillery, and armored personnel carriers of China’s military were seen heading to the Vietnamese border on May 16 and 17, according to photographs taken by by residents near the border.”

    ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-19/%E2%80%9Cconflict-between-china-and-vietnam-imminent-china-piles-troops-tanks-artillery-and-

  56. zoomster

    Diog

    National Conference is the main game. Victorian State Conference is just about Victoria.

  57. guytaur

    “@AustralianLabor: “Tony Abbott says he has no plan to increase the GST. Here is a tip, he will be lying about that too.” @billshortenmp #auspol”

  58. Atticus

    Graphs from government Library Clive Palmer filled his PUP speech yesterday are sobering, if not disheartening. After usual ones about Australia’s low debt, he presented some which reveal, compared to other countries, how low our government expenditures on social safety net programs etc. already are.

    My OH finished watching it a few minutes ago – – – – – first thing she mentioned was Palmer’s criticism of the GST because his billion dollar companies don’t pay it.

  59. guytaur

    “@ABCNews24: Bill Shorten: The Liberal premiers know these are real cuts to hospitals and schools #Budget2014 #auspol”

  60. guytaur

    “@Simon_Cullen: Tony Abbott: “Labor are being fiscal vandals” by vowing to block parts of the budget.”

  61. guytaur

    “@AustralianLabor: “If Joe Hockey wants to have a fight with pensioners, he has a fight with us” @billshortenmp #auspol”

  62. guytaur

    “@CliveFPalmer: Think Australians expect a bit better from a minister and NP deputy leader after @Barnaby_Joyce resorts to derogatory comments #auspol”

  63. Lynchpin

    Shorten is using very strong language. Good to see.

  64. briefly

    markjs, victoria, mikeh, guytuar…thanks, you’re all very kind. 🙂

    (Like you, I’m sure, I’m conscious that William provides an excellent forum for a continuing, lively and interesting discussion. I feel very fortunate to be able to contribute to and learn from everything that passes here.)

  65. Atticus

    Shorten attacking Abbott attempt to get states to increase GST. Says Baird and Campbell agree with Labor on this. Go Bill!

  66. guytaur

    “@CliveFPalmer: I’ve spent time in Marsden on Brisbane’s southside today to hear concerns from pensioners about the cruel & heartless Abbott govt budget”

    I had to look to make sure this was not Bill Shorten

  67. MTBW

    BK

    Loved the cartoon of Abbott and Bill!

  68. psyclaw

    Ripper of a presser by Bill Shorten

    “Tony Abbott is Australia’s lying champion” , and not holding back on the “lie” word.

    One stupid gotcha attempt “would you pledge now to never alter Super rules when you come back to government?” beautifully handled ….question just totally ignored and a seamless reply, smooth as silk, about Joe Hockey being out of touch with ordinary people.

  69. Atticus

    Hockey’s superannuation comment on Q & A seems to be overshadowing his “avuncular” performance with the journos, if Shorten’s presser is any indication.

  70. victoria

    A caller to ABC radio opined that perhaps there will be a leadership challenge by Turnbull.
    Jon faine the host laughed and said that Turnbull is immensely disliked within the party, and he has nowhere near the numbers to mount any challenge. He said the religious right have a firm control over the Liberal party at present

  71. markjs

    Geez, isn’t Palmer one huge thorn in the side of Abbott & Co…

    Not sure I trust him (time will tell) …but I’m LOVING his rhetoric ..Lol!!

  72. Diogenes

    Z

    Would the National Conference be able to direct the States to change their rules?

  73. citizen

    An opinion piece from Nicholas Stewart, described as a Canberra writer:

    [It took a long time, but Bob Santamaria’s finally done it – we’ve got our first ever DLP Prime Minister. There’s no other way to describe someone who rips the guts out of education yet finds money for a school chaplaincy program; for a person who eviscerates payments to single mothers but still has a few bucks left over for family planning. This Budget marks a waypoint on a long march to possess the soul of the Liberal party. It’s intellectually incoherent: cutting services to all listening to a special interest group.

    And this is its weakest point. The claim is that this is somehow akin to John Howard’s first budget in 1997. It’s not. That was good to business and established the country for decades of growth. This, by contrast, is a flabby effort that reflects its self-indulgent craftsmen. It genuflects, grudgingly, towards everything discovered since the 1930s but the Catholic mafia (Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey, Kevin Andrews, et al) have demonstrated convincingly that they can shape government in their image. Indulgence available upon application; see the padre.]

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-has-morphed-into-bob-santamaria-20140519-zrh4g.html#ixzz32DJ1XhYq

  74. victoria

    Another great presser by shorten

  75. Atticus

    [(Like you, I’m sure, I’m conscious that William provides an excellent forum for a continuing, lively and interesting discussion. I feel very fortunate to be able to contribute to and learn from everything that passes here.]

    Here, here! Our great appreciation of William and so many perspicacious PB posters needs to be re-stated more often!

  76. WeWantPaul

    The truth is diog there will not be real reform at best there will be some window dressing – these people are not about to give up power in their home state nor at a national level.

  77. Libertarian Unionist

    ditto to all of the the compliments to briefly and William above!

  78. briefly

    [1671….mikehilliard]

    This depends on your expectations about inflation. If you think inflation is going to take off and interest rates will follow, then a fixed rate is a good idea.

    But if you think the risks are for weak growth and low inflation, then stick with a variable rate loan.

    For what it’s worth, long term money market rates have been falling – a sign that wholesale investors are not worried about inflation and are happy to buy long-dated assets on modest nominal yields.

    Personally, considering the weakness in the Euro economy, the pattern of slow growth here, the weakness in China and the slowdown in exports, I think there is a negligible chance of interest rate rises so there’s no need to fix your mortgage rates. In any case, if mortgage rates were to go up, there would likely be plenty of advance signs.

  79. victoria

    Btw Chris Bowen will address NPC tomorrow

  80. Atticus

    Diog,
    You are one of the most perspicacious of all PB posters, and your thousands of posts evidence a deep concern for future generations as well as daily political issues. So, I humbly ask you to please not create imaginary “tests” or “criteria” for evaluating Shorten’s leadership.

    Of course, party reform is worth attention (let’s have no more Arbib’s and Bullock’s #1 on Senate ballots, for starters), but party reform is less important than Labor’s myriad policies and communication of those policies in terms of how effective a leader he proves to be.

  81. mikehilliard

    briefly

    Thank you. 🙂

  82. rossmcg

    It is reported in The west Australian today that the falling iron ore price and the high Australian dollar are are already blowing holes in the WA state budget, only weeks after it was delivered.

    Just more proof that when politicians would have us believe they are pulling the levers on the economy they are having a lend of is.

    There are far greater, and sometimes darker, forces at work.

  83. citizen

    [guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 11:04 am | PERMALINK
    “@CliveFPalmer: I’ve spent time in Marsden on Brisbane’s southside today to hear concerns from pensioners about the cruel & heartless Abbott govt budget”

    I had to look to make sure this was not Bill Shorten]

    It looks like Clive is at least fulfilling his duty as an MP to meet with his constituents and others.

  84. Atticus

    liyana,

    Ta for link —-otherwise, would’ve missed it.

    You’d think Gerry Harvey and all retail lobby spokespersons would have screamed bloody murder about Abbott ripping disposable income out of the pockets of the very people who would keep their business in profit.

  85. Dr Fumbles McStupid

    Consumer confidence takes a big hit with the budget

    [ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell a further 3.2% to 100.4 in the week ending 18 May, after the 2014-15 Commonwealth Budget was handed down. Consumer Confidence began weakening noticeably four weeks ago when some significant policies were leaked ahead of the Federal Budget’s release and is down a sharp 14% since then; the steepest decline over a four week period since the series became weekly in October 2008.
    ]

    This is unbelievable, the smokey job had purposely set out to sabotage the economy and bring on a recession he could not have done better.

    Never seen anything like it

  86. Centre

    I told you Palmer is a greater asset to Labor than the Greens 😀

  87. Just Me

    [1662
    markjs

    Briefly…

    Your posts are anything but “tedious”

    I’ve learned so much about how our economy works from reading your excellent contributions. Thank you & please keep posting….]

    Once again, +1.

  88. briefly

    1654
    psyclaw

    As I remarked to Fran, it’s obviously possible to compensate households for the regressive effects of indirect taxes, but it’s also a lot more easily said than done, not least because Tory Governments will try to undo the compensation.

    As well, as LU correctly points out, it is also possible to avoid GST.

    GST is a flat-rate tax. It’s obviously bound to be regressive. This is already a problem, so by tripling the amount it collects we would be tripling its regressivity.

    We also have to take good note of the effect taxes have on the economy. Taxes that reduce the real disposable incomes of the lower three income quintiles (those on average earnings or less) will disproportionately affect demand, jobs and overall output and should be resisted for those reasons alone.

    In particular, access to work has been the single biggest contributor to disposable income growth for the least-well paid, and we should therefore be trying to strengthen the labour market. We cannot do this by also suppressing demand.

    I can only reiterate: We do not have a tax problem that cannot be easily fixed. Instead we have problems with very slow real disposable income growth and an inequality problem. We can fix all these without increasing regressive taxes. Indeed, if we increase regressive taxes we will fail to fix any of the problems we have.

  89. Fran Barlow

    Socrates

    I’d sooner give low to lower middle income earners non-cash benefits in exchange e.g. low or zero cost dental, transport, quality childcare, housing etc). This ensures poor households are materially assisted.

    I understand your aims but disagree on means. With many of those services now delivered privately and paid for by government and user charges, there would be a massive cost to giving them services for free.

    Doubtful. Those qualifying for free or highly concessional dental service could be given a stored value card to be used via the HiCaps system. There would be a value for dental service on it. Dentists couldn’t simply push up the price as the cost of these services could be made part of a schedule.

    Obviously I favour building/acquiring public housing stock rather than private rental as the main way of achieving housing services. Childcare already attracts a state-based copayment. Transport has an established concessional system and with the roll out of stored value cards a tweak of these wouldn’t be too hard.

  90. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    I wonder if Clive might see the great symbolism of him supporting the mining tax (at personal cost to himself). I wouldn’t be surprised. He knows the importance of a good gesture does Clive.
    Oh, Tony, and when you negotiate with him, don’t forget this is a man who locked his OWN supporters out of their ground to save money. Good luck.

  91. Centre

    LOL

    Even if Abbott got all his austerity measures through the Senate with the current global financial circumstances, Australia is not going to fall into recession.

    It’s pie in the sky dreaming if you believe otherwise.

  92. pedant

    I see Mr Abbott is reported as running a line that he expected people to respect the government after the budget, even if they didn’t like it.

    This is hauntingly similar to the despairing line the ALP used in the 1996 campaign: “Keating: you may not like him, but you’ve got to respect him”.

    The coalition, it seems to me, are now basically in the situation which John Howard would have been in had he attempted to bring in both the GST and Workchoices in his first term.

  93. mikehilliard

    Hockey is on. It’s Labors fault their lying.

  94. Tom Hawkins

    [You’d think Gerry Harvey and all retail lobby spokespersons would have screamed bloody murder about Abbott ripping disposable income out of the pockets of the very people who would keep their business in profit.]

    Maybe they’re expecting Abbott to have GST applied to internet purchases for OS

  95. kakuru

    pedant:

    [I see Mr Abbott is reported as running a line that he expected people to respect the government after the budget, even if they didn’t like it.

    This is hauntingly similar to the despairing line the ALP used in the 1996 campaign: “Keating: you may not like him, but you’ve got to respect him”.]

    This also reminds me of Barry Goldwater’s refrain: “In your heart, you know he’s right”

    The counter to this was: “In your gut, you know he’s a nut.” Which could equally apply to Abbott.

  96. Diogenes

    Atticus

    I agree that achieving reform isn’t the defining aspect of assessing Shortens leadership but it is one if the important ones.

    Achieving a One Term Tony is more important.

    But governments lose elections rather than oppositions winning them so is like to see some reforms so whenever Labor gets back into power they are less likely to toss it away with the circus we saw under Rudd-Gillard.

  97. mikehilliard

    they’re not their 😛

  98. Rex Douglas

    Finding it almost impossible to sit through another Hockey spin session.

    Really, the spin from all sides is frustrating as all hell.

    The constant spin is so regular I’m sure they all actually believe the garbage that flows from their mouths.

  99. Diogenes

    Briefly

    [GST is a flat-rate tax. It’s obviously bound to be regressive. This is already a problem, so by tripling the amount it collects we would be tripling its regressivity.
    ]

    That isn’t necessarily true. It depends on what percentage of your income is spent on goods and services.

  100. Tom Hawkins

    Abbott’s personal popularity is so low that there’s no way he’s going to gain respect

  101. MTBW

    markjs

    [Geez, isn’t Palmer one huge thorn in the side of Abbott & Co…

    Not sure I trust him (time will tell) …but I’m LOVING his rhetoric ..Lol!!]

    I have been saying that for months – he is playing with Abbott’s head and good on him.

    Loved Q&A last night Hockey was absolutely stonkered.

    If Q&A was stacked with Liberals last night I will eat my hat (if I had one)!

  102. imacca

    [ You’d think Gerry Harvey and all retail lobby spokespersons would have screamed bloody murder about Abbott ripping disposable income out of the pockets of the very people who would keep their business in profit. ]

    Liberal voters are inherently prone to voting against their own interests. 🙂

    Besides, they will just lobby for the Govt to shutdown online purchasing to a greater extent.

    One of the lines that worries me though is that they are pushing and pushing the “We have made hard decisions”. They are using repetition to try and reinforce the idea of strong man Abbott and its for the good of the country.

    Needs to be countered by repetition. These were not hard decisions, they are BAD decisions.

  103. Fran Barlow

    briefly

    [As well, compensating for such taxes with services or goods-in-kind is not enough. It is intrinsically paternalistic. People not only need these things, they need cash in their pockets. This is necessary for a dignified life.]

    In principle I agree with but it is worth keeping in mind that cash payments, by definition, go to a head of household — whereas non-cash benefits can be targeted. Having spent a lot of time teaching the children of the marginalised in Sydney’s deep South West and West, it’s really clear that those children are often missing out on things they need which could have been had if ther benefits were non-liquid or at worst semi-liquid.

    Being marginalised all your life doesn’t generally equip you well to make good decisions on your own behalf, and still less for good decsions on behalf of dependants. Substance abuse is tragically common, along with gambling addiction. Children are often “fed” with the poorest quality “food” — typically from the major convenience outlets, if they are fed at all.

    It would be far better if the actual targets of assistance got appropriate assistance in sutiable quantities and if it were delivered in ways that allowed them to achieve better control over their lives. So while not removing existing cash benefits I’d strongly favour adding those non-cash benefits to the mix. Those amongst the marginalised who actually are doing a pretty good job — and hubby’s mother years ago would have been an excellent example — would have been thrilled to have that system. As it was, hubby’s father (an employed sparky and occasional chippy) would be drunk every day bar Sunday. His long-suffering mother managed to make ends meet even so — just barely — but more money would not have helped, but made things worse.

  104. slothy

    Tom Hawkins # 1739

    Maybe they’re expecting Abbott to have GST applied to internet purchases for OS

    I thought Abbott promised to fix that by March. Surprised he broke a promise to his backers.

  105. rossmcg

    Abbott wants the respect he has never shown for anyone else

    Just remember Bernie Banton.

    One incident among many.

  106. Centre

    Diogs

    Company tax is also a flat-rate tax yet is the most progressive form of taxation in society 😯

    Actually, it depends on what percentage of you income is NOT spent on goods and services.

    A pity low income earners have got to spend nearly all of their income on goods and services – hence they pay more tax 😉

    😎

  107. Atticus

    Mike H.

    Evidently, Murdoch’s USA/UK propaganda pros have been enlisted to rescue the Coalition. Yesterday’s “Telegraph” front page “Living on Easy Street” about rich housing comm. tenets is the classic Murdochian counter-attack strategy right out of the Ronald Reagan playbook of convincing American voters they had a plague of “Welfare queens driving Cadillacs” and only cure was trickle-down economics. It never failed to get dsyinformed Americans to happily vote against their own and their society’s well-being.

  108. theintellectualbogan

    Quite why it is assumed that the Tories wouldn’t want to instigate a recession, I’m not sure. After all, if you’re cashed up, you can do pretty well out of hovering up the assets of the desperate. All it takes is a lack of a conscience.
    Personally I find the idea of a deliberately induced recession entirely plausible, albeit Nottingham at the top of the probability table.

  109. ShowsOn

    [That isn’t necessarily true. It depends on what percentage of your income is spent on goods and services.]
    But people on low incomes spend nearly all their money so they get hit hardest by the GST.

    The way the income tax cuts were structured after the GST was completely unfair and gave thousands of dollars of tax cuts to people who didn’t need it. The increase the the tax free threshold to $18200 by the previous government should be seen as an attempt to fix how unfair the income tax scales were after the GST was enacted.

  110. Tom the first and best

    1733

    The GST could be made less regressive by removing exemptions for some items, like private schooling, that rich people spend a lot more on than poor people.

  111. Libertarian Unionist

    [GST is a flat-rate tax. It’s obviously bound to be regressive. This is already a problem, so by tripling the amount it collects we would be tripling its regressivity.

    That isn’t necessarily true. It depends on what percentage of your income is spent on goods and services.]

    Which is the point. The lower your income, the greater the proportion of it you spend on goods and services that attract the GST. Hence it is always regressive in the real world.

    The only theoretical cases where it is not regressive in its effect are when (i) everyone earns the same income and spends it on exactly the same things, (ii) higher earners spend more than lowers in exact proportion to their income, but still with the same patterns of expenditure. Theses don’t exist in the real world.

  112. Diogenes

    Centre

    I’m sure that is generally the case that there are fixed expenses which disproportionately hit lower incomes. I think food should have been exempted except when eating out.

  113. Atticus

    Diog,
    Many thanks for the characteristic cogency and civility in your reply to my post. Evidently, I didn’t fully grasp the larger point you were making.

    Cheers!

  114. Sir sustainable future

    It is going to be interesting to see how abbott responds to pressure and (FINALLY!) media scrutiny. he’s always liked a fight and picked unpopular causes through his uni politics and monarchy debate eras, and has a strong sense of ‘him’ versus ‘them’. Yes he’s been a populist right up to the budget – not he doesn’t care – and does not have the need to be loved that Rudd seemed to have. However, he is not cool under pressure and he has several assaults and near-assaults (actual punches, threats of violence, wall punching, glass door breaking, etc) in the past. Somehow the nation overlooked how crazy he was in the “Shit happens”/”You’re not saying anything Tony” interview – but that quivering-rage silent staring was not the reaction of a controlled/sane person. It would not amaze me if he hit someone soon. we need a smart arse goading interviewer – Paul Barry or the chaser crew perhaps (recall the “You’re seething” comment to Heffenan when he then threatened to take it outside – I think abbott would crack with similar provocation). I am sure Peta will keep abbott medicated and out of harms reach, but I am expecting him to look increasingly crazy in the coming weeks.

  115. Boerwar

    [Centre
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    LOL

    Even if Abbott got all his austerity measures through the Senate with the current global financial circumstances, Australia is not going to fall into recession.

    It’s pie in the sky dreaming if you believe otherwise.]

    I am not sure whose pie and which sky.

    Iron ore spot prices have now dropped 22% in seven months (and 2% overnight) amongst persistent concerns about China’s economy.

    Coal export prices also falling such that margins of existing coal mines are forcing mine closures and such that new mine developments – in particular those in the Galilee Basin – are in doubt, along with the associated massive rail and port developments.

    It will take some time for the surge in infrastructure investment arising from the budget settings to take hold.

    Abbott and Hockey have achieved the ultimate government double: they have trashed business AND consumer confidence.

    While this budget is not contractionary (it mostly shuffles money from the poor to the wealthy and debt from the Feds to the states), there is a suite of economic drivers that may well combine to force Australia into recession.

  116. mikehilliard

    Atticus

    It’s been a bit of a roller coaster ride lately hasn’t it.

    One day I think the punters have woken up to Abbott & the next I’m not so sure.

    That Mordor can turn sentiment one way & the other so easily is a frightening indictment of our society.

  117. BK

    Hockey is hoping for the Stockholm Syndrome to descend upon Australians. It won’t work Joe!

  118. Tom the first and best

    1751

    Company tax could be made even more progressive by converting it from a flat rate to a progressive rate that increases, in increments, as profitability increases.

    Taxation of inheritance is more progressive the company tax because it reduces intergenerational wealth transfer and thus increases meritocracy.

  119. Diogenes

    SO

    Increasing the tax free threshold worked well for low income families but it doesn’t help those on a pension or unemployed. I’m not sure how we compensate them for the inevitable rise in the GST.

  120. citizen

    [slothy
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 11:52 am | PERMALINK
    Tom Hawkins # 1739

    Maybe they’re expecting Abbott to have GST applied to internet purchases for OS

    I thought Abbott promised to fix that by March. Surprised he broke a promise to his backers.]

    It’s interesting that nothing has apparently been done in the budget. It should be quite easy to reduce the $1,000 limit. Perhaps the savage staffing cuts to Customs (sorry, Oz Border Force) have meant that the extra administrative burden in collecting GST on small overseas purchases would be unworkable.

  121. Boerwar

    I imagine that Abbott would be suffering from an advanced case of cognitive dissonance.

    His SOP when faced with a challenge is to lunge forwards with both fists flailing.

    But he has to cut some deals with at least some of the big states – probably Qld and WA. This requires horse trading.

    And horse trading requires something other than advancing in a threatening manner with your fists cocked.

  122. adam abdool

    [MTBW

    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    markjs

    Geez, isn’t Palmer one huge thorn in the side of Abbott & Co…

    Not sure I trust him (time will tell) …but I’m LOVING his rhetoric ..Lol!!

    I have been saying that for months – he is playing with Abbott’s head and good on him.

    Loved Q&A last night Hockey was absolutely stonkered.

    If Q&A was stacked with Liberals last night I will eat my hat (if I had one)!]

    The audience distribution was Libs – 40%, Labor – 32%, Greens – 9%. Still not accurately representing the Polls. I think that there were a fair bit of Libs out there who were venting their anger.

  123. guytaur

    Hockey and Abbott have revealed the love using blackmail as a negotiating tactic.

    Don’t think its going to work

  124. Centre

    Shows On @ 1754

    Spot on!

    Tom f&b

    Only a true L OO N could want to implement a regressive tax then distribute the revenue it raises to those most in need.

  125. Windhover

    [Shorten wrote his speech on Wednesday and Thursday with help from his speechwriter James Newton (a speech writer in the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet under Labor) and input from colleagues and mentors, including Paul Keating and Bill Kelty.]

    To give P bludgers a little backgrounding, Newton is a former Melbourne Grammar School captain (2006) who has demonstrated from an early age (a) a strong interest in and commitment to Labor values such as the compassion for and protection of worker’s rights, minorities and the poor; (b)leadership; and (c) speech-making.

    I make 3 comments. First, whatever in-put he had to writing the speech Shorten would have been well-advised if he also paid attention to Newton’s tips on delivery. Secondly, we can continue to expect well prepared speeches that attract the listener to what Shorten is saying. Thirdly, Newton will be wasted if all he does is write speeches since his strengths are leadership and delivery.
    [Conflict of interest: I am a family friend.]

  126. Diogenes

    Tom

    That wouldn’t work well because the company could just split itself into lots of subsidiaries to cut its overall tax bill.

  127. ShowsOn

    [1733

    The GST could be made less regressive by removing exemptions for some items, like private schooling, that rich people spend a lot more on than poor people.]
    That’s a good idea. And the GST should be applied to so called private health insurance.

  128. guytaur

    @strom_m: In Germany university is free, they make cars & you don’t have to work to 70. And look! They just CUT retirement age http://t.co/oretzZf1yV

  129. ShowsOn

    [SO

    Increasing the tax free threshold worked well for low income families but it doesn’t help those on a pension or unemployed. I’m not sure how we compensate them for the inevitable rise in the GST.]
    You do what the Clean Energy Act did, you increase the pensions to account for the increased cost of living.

    If there is an increase to the GST, don’t expect the states to get all of it. They will be lucky to get half because the federal government will need to spend a lot of money compensating people through the tax or transfer payment systems.

  130. briefly

    1748
    Fran Barlow

    There’s got to be a wise mix, somewhere between the US example, where welfare recipients get food stamps but no cash, and an all-cash but no service deal.

  131. briefly

    [1738
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    Hockey is on. It’s Labors fault their lying.]

    rofl

  132. WeWantPaul

    Is the Abbott roads only infrastructure splurge actually a massive increase in infrastructure investment or is it mainly just business as normal?

    Considering the infrastructure that has been canned / delayed I wonder if when you add it all up there is in fact less infrastructure than would have occurred under labor?

  133. Centre

    Diogs

    I’m against consumption taxes, they place restraints on spending which depress the economy in addition to placing an unfair tax burden on low to middle income earners.

    Economic growth is the key to wealth. I believe that the prosperity from economic growth should be shared fairly in accordance with those who contribute to it.

    I’d say let’s have the one tax (income tax) with the fair thresholds – hit them properly but hit them once and be done with it. 😎

  134. Tom the first and best

    1771

    Splitting the company would not work much because the while tax on some parts of the company would go down (because they are the less profitable parts of the company), other parts` tax would go up because their profitability would be diluted by the rest of the company.

  135. Centre

    There won’t be a recession Boer.

    Go check a post of mine hmmm around May 8 BEFORE the market started falling as perfectly predicted like usual 🙂 😛

  136. Tom the first and best

    1772

    I agree.

  137. Atticus

    Mike H,

    [One day I think the punters have woken up to Abbott & the next I’m not so sure.

    That Mordor can turn sentiment one way & the other so easily is a frightening indictment of our society.]

    Ditto here, mate.

    Murdocracy, shock jocks and Rinehart’s army constitute a brilliant propaganda juggernaut with boundless opportunities to warp-drive us into a “greed is good” Australia – – – – they’ve only just begun to fight with no holds barred.

  138. Centre

    Tom @ 1763

    You really don’t have a clue do you?

    I’d explain it to you but I’m getting something to eat 😛

  139. Boerwar

    [Centre
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 12:19 pm | Permalink

    There won’t be a recession Boer.]

    It must be nice to know with certainty the way in which the external factors that determine the Australian economy’s status are going to play out.

  140. Centre

    Byaaaa

    Wealth taxes.

    A favourite of the L OO NS.

    Why should people be taxed TWICE!

    *outski

  141. briefly

    [1744
    Diogenes

    Briefly

    GST is a flat-rate tax. It’s obviously bound to be regressive. This is already a problem, so by tripling the amount it collects we would be tripling its regressivity.

    That isn’t necessarily true. It depends on what percentage of your income is spent on goods and services.]

    It’s obviously the case that the less one consumes the less sales tax one pays. However, whatever share of income is spent on taxable goods and services, if you triple the tax rate you also triple its effect on the person spending….you diminish their disposable income by an amount equal to the amount of tax taken, or perhaps by even more, depending on the effect of the tax on output, prices generally and employment.

    I should add that indirect taxes not only affect those who pay them. They also affect those who supply them, who lose sales volumes and income as a result. Their effect is to reduce economic “welfare”.

    There is a line of argument that says sales taxes are more economically “efficient” than direct taxes – that such taxes reduce “welfare” (output) less than direct taxes and therefore we should increase indirect taxes and reduce direct taxes.

    In my opinion, this is almost impossible to know for sure, and, on the face of it, is intuitively unlikely to be the case. It is an argument that is assumed to be valid in order to support political calls for lower income taxes – that is, to support the redistribution of disposable incomes in favour of the best paid.

  142. Boerwar

    Here are some receipts and expenditure reforms that would essentially ‘fix’ our budget going forward

    (1) dump trusts as a means of tax avoidance
    (2) dump FBT
    (3) dump farm income averaging
    (4) dump the diesel rebate for big miners and farmers
    (5) dump drought rorts funding
    (6) increase fuel excise
    (7) increase the carbon tax
    (8) retain and reform the MRRT
    (9) ensure that GST bleed from foreign-based purchases is managed
    (10) include every capital item in capital gains tax and asset tests, including, specifically all housing and the family home.
    (11) means-test all entitlement-based expenditure
    (12) abolish negative gearing

  143. Boerwar

    (13) reintroduce death duties.

  144. dedalus

    Mark Latham will address a Community Forum tonight 7pm at the Picton Bowling Club. The subject: ALP party reform.

  145. Boerwar

    (14) stop going to war once or twice a decade. Very expensive.

  146. MTBW

    AA

    Thank you for that you may be right! Everyone is ticked off with this Government perhaps.

  147. dave

    pedant@1737

    I see Mr Abbott is reported as running a line that he expected people to respect the government after the budget, even if they didn’t like it.

    Most people know the correct response – *Trust has to be earnt*.

    abbott hasn’t even started to do so – in fact – he is going the other way!

  148. citizen

    [WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 12:14 pm | PERMALINK
    Is the Abbott roads only infrastructure splurge actually a massive increase in infrastructure investment or is it mainly just business as normal?

    Considering the infrastructure that has been canned / delayed I wonder if when you add it all up there is in fact less infrastructure than would have occurred under labor?]

    Albanese did a video using a whiteboad (linked last week ago by someone here) that showed most of the infrastructure claimed by Abbott was actually programmed by the previous government.

  149. dave

    Rex Douglas@1743

    Finding it almost impossible to sit through another Hockey spin session.

    I’ve stopped listen to *anything* abbott or hockey say in the electronic media – they get the mute button or I flick to another channel/ station.

    Whatever they say is generally picked apart here without having actually see/hear them.

  150. briefly

    Another illustration of the “income problem”…and, implicitly, why voters are so angry with Tony Abbott and why increases in regressive taxes at this time are such a lousy idea….

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/why-consumers-are-so-pissed/

    [Deutsche put together a chart plotting annual change in nominal GDP per person, deflated using the consumer price index, to calculate the change in how much every consumer can buy year for year.

    ‘‘This gives us a guide to whether the economy is able to produce higher living standards (positive growth in the chart) or not (negative growth),’’ Boyton says.

    The result is the economy has been unable to deliver higher living standards for the past two years, and a rise of just 2.6 per cent over the past five years.

    ‘‘This is quite unusual,’’ Boyton says, adding that the last time there were back-to-back declines in living standards was during the recessions of the early 1980s and 1990s.]

  151. Simon Katich

    Boerwar 1788

    Damn tootin’ right! Shame its constantly rejected out of hand. Done with care its an ‘equality of opportunity’ tax. I see other benefits too.

    Jericho (Grogonomics) recommends broadening GST to Education – saying its a progressive option. Personally, I would ban private education to at least the age of 13…..buts thats off topic.

    And nobody talks about the basic income payment option anymore. Anyone having to fill out (or help others fill out) centerlink/family assist forms would welcome a simpler model of welfare payments. I cant believe it has never been tried anywhere.

    PS – Who is the Informal Party? I missed something there.

  152. Lynchpin

    Windhover, thanks for that (at 1770). I have been saying to members and friends that I thought Shorten’s speech in reply to the Budget was the best enunciation of Labor values by a leader since the Hawke / Keating era.

    Well done to your friend James Newton.

  153. don

    Tom the first and best@1779

    1771

    Splitting the company would not work much because the while tax on some parts of the company would go down (because they are the less profitable parts of the company), other parts` tax would go up because their profitability would be diluted by the rest of the company.

    Dio had a go, now I’ll try.

    You make lots of little companies, so that each is below the tax threshold.

    Each makes a profit, but none pays tax.

    With larger companies, each of your companies makes a profit, but the tax is lower because it is in a lower tax bracket, and the profit up to the threshold is tax free.

  154. spur212

    Essential on the Budget: Approve 30%, Disapprove 52%

  155. WeWantPaul

    [Byaaaa

    Wealth taxes.

    A favourite of the L OO NS.

    Why should people be taxed TWICE!

    *outski
    ]

    What an absurd post – I got quite angry as my taxed income was then hit with a GST as I purchased a small mid morning pick me up.

    The arguments not to tax wealth are even weaker than the arguments not to tax income.

  156. zoidlord

    I have a new nickname for Abbott & Hockey.

    Fool’s Gold.

  157. Libertarian Unionist

    [Another illustration of the “income problem”…]

    And CPI doesn’t include shelter either. Since this has grown much faster than CPI, disposable income has fallen by even further than those charts illustrate.

  158. Lynchpin

    From each according to his means, to each according to his needs.

  159. cud chewer

    Which one is Iron and which is Pyrite?

  160. B.C.

    I saw speculation this morning that if the Government’s budget measures are blocked it might put our AAA credit rating at risk. It occurred to me that going back to AA might not be a bad thing as we might well see a drop in the Aussie dollar. The high AUD has been one thing that’s been killing our manufacturers.

  161. Lynchpin

    cud chewer, don’t you mean Liron and I’mrite?

  162. Libertarian Unionist

    [The arguments not to tax wealth are even weaker than the arguments not to tax income.]

    Are there any good arguments against taxing wealth?

  163. Jimmyhaz

    I’ve never understood why Australia has a credit rating in the first place, it’s not as if our financial position in any way impacts our ability to secure funding.

  164. Lynchpin

    BC, some economist from S&Ps said if Australia doesn’t reduce spending AAA might be at risk.

    A bit like saying if Inglis doesn’t play the Maroons will lose the State of Origin series.

    Pure speculation.

  165. Tom the first and best

    1798

    You are mistaken in how profitability thresholds in company tax work.

    They do not work based on the size of the profit, like how personal income tax works, but the percentage profit. There is no little to tax free threshold either.

  166. Libertarian Unionist

    [From each according to his means, to each according to his needs.]

    And every rainbow ends in a pot of gold… there’s a small problem in that tale, to do with how you get the information on means and needs.

  167. cud chewer

    Roy Morgan is out

  168. zoidlord

    @Lynchpin/1809

    The economist in question obviously doesn’t care where to cut spending, just as long as it happens.

    Abbott never put the tax cuts on the table to be killed off.

  169. Lynchpin

    LU, probably. Lawyers and accountants have made things very difficult.

  170. Lynchpin

    Cud, Morgan was out yesterday.

  171. p m z

    Watched Q&A in the hope I’d see Hockey squirm like the grub he is only to have ended up pissing away an hour+ on banal deflections which weren’t really answered for thanks to Tony Jones pissweak inability to moderate a fart, let alone a panel. A shame this waste of space won’t be culled due to the ABC & SBS cuts. :/

  172. Libertarian Unionist

    I think a progressive company tax rate would have exactly the opposite effect that many here have suggested. Companies would merge.

    Specifically, progressive company tax would give profitable companies an incentive to acquire unprofitable ones, as the rate of tax applied to the larger (in terms of capital) but less profitable company would be less. This would be constrained by the fiduciary duty of the companies managers to maximise returns to shareholders, so that the tax benefit from such mergers would only be pursued up to the point that they stop increasing returns…

    In short, it sounds like a way to induce a whole lot of perverse incentives to managers decision-making and obscure the drivers and operation of capital markets.

    It’s much better to stick to a flat company tax.

  173. briefly

    [1802….Libertarian Unionist]

    Correct, LU. We need to fix housing as well as per capita disposable incomes and structural inequality. Not impossible.

  174. Lynchpin

    The rate of Company tax should be raised.

  175. Simon Katich

    zoid

    Rocky and Bullwinkle? ‘Nothin up my sleeve…’
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7mmrF-4rUE

  176. Rex Douglas

    So it’s ‘Labors $660bn debt” we’re continually being told by the commentators.

    Why aren’t interviewers picking them up on this lie.

  177. WeWantPaul

    [Are there any good arguments against taxing wealth?
    ]

    ‘We quite like our wealth don’t tax us’

    Seems to be all they have other than calling people loons.

  178. Lynchpin

    Rex,what particular debt is that?

  179. B.C.

    To be honest, I don’t think the rate of company tax makes that much difference to small companies anyway. Most of their profits are paid to the owners as either wages (and thus subject to income tax rather than company tax) or dividends (and with dividend imputation are effectively taxed at income tax rates).

    Thus only any retained earnings are subject to company tax.

  180. spur212

    Has anyone got Essential’s poll from today yet?

  181. Rex Douglas

    Lynchpin

    It’s just Govt spin that interviewers allow to be propogated without correction.

  182. geoffrey

    no indirect or double taxation – one income/business tax system – stop school fees medical insurance gst – stop tax avoidance in this country –

  183. Libertarian Unionist

    [Lawyers and accountants have made things very difficult.]

    It has nothing to do with lawyers or accountants, and everything to do with self-interest. If you are interested, look up the socialist calculation debate, but, at risk of alienating a bunch of PBers, here’s a quote from Hayek’s The Use of Knowledge in Society:
    [The economic problem of society is not merely a problem of how to allocate ‘given’ resources… It is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for ends whose relative importance only these individuals know. …it is a problem of the utilization of knowledge not given to anyone in its totality. This character of the fundamental problem has, I am afraid, been rather obscured than illuminated by many of the recent refinements of economic theory, particularly by many of the uses made of mathematics.” ]

    If you are really interested in this stuff and have a mathematical mind, look at the works of the 2007 Nobel memorial prize winners, Leonid Hurwicz, Eric Maskin, and Roger Myerson.

  184. Centre

    We Want Paul

    You really are clueless clown.

    Being hit with income tax in addition to the GST is not being taxed twice.

    Clown, nothing more to be said!

  185. Libertarian Unionist

    WeWantPaul – lol!

  186. cud chewer

    Lynchpin, oh ok, shows how busy I am :/

  187. tielec

    BC @ 1824
    I always assumed the same, however a company tax does stop profits from going to overseas investors with very little to no taxation.

    I’m yet to see a good argument against wealth tax – but if I was wealthy then maybe I’d have a different view.

  188. guytaur

    Rex

    Its why I think Swan should do a Lateline interview. Worlds best treasurer detting the record strraight

  189. Libertarian Unionist

    Centre, stop being a wanker and engage i nth earguement, if you want to, or piss off back to the TAB.

  190. WeWantPaul

    [LU, probably. Lawyers and accountants have made things very difficult.
    ]

    I’m pretty sure we lawyers make it all work. We are good – just ask us.

  191. guytaur

    centre

    Your post is a great reason to reject the GST. Not taxing the wealthy.

  192. tielec

    Centre can you explain how paying Goods and Services Tax and Income Tax is not being taxed twice?

  193. Diogenes

    Tom

    [They do not work based on the size of the profit, like how personal income tax works, but the percentage profit. There is no little to tax free threshold either.]

    That wouldn’t work either as a highly profitable company could just buy a large break-even company and greatly reduce its tax bill.

  194. mexicanbeemer

    psyclaw

    Thanks I didn’t realise it was only a temporary measure as it was very effective.

    Psyclaw/CW/Sammut Fulvio

    To clarify I am fully aware of the need for Hockey and every other MP to declare family assets as they should for numerous reasons including potential conflict of Interest.

    My issue is more to do with superficial things.

    Regarding the budget it is pretty clear for all to see that Jow has shielded his constituents from the budget axe.

  195. guytaur

    @GrogsGamut: So the S&P downgrade AFR story seems to have been rather over egged. Whoops http://t.co/Aqbl2gNpyC (HT @BernardKeane)

  196. Diogenes

    tielec

    [Centre can you explain how paying Goods and Services Tax and Income Tax is not being taxed twice?]

    It’s all to do with the way Centre rounds his numbers. In this case he rounds twice down to once. 😀

  197. B.C.

    My point is that for small companies a cut in company tax doesn’t make much difference. It does provide an incentive to retain earnings. Whether that’s a good thing or not is another debate.

  198. zoidlord

    @MB/1839

    And that’s why we need to continue to the call of an early election. Blocking specific items in the budget just gives Abbott & Hockey breathing room.

  199. tielec

    Diog

    Ah I see, it must have been these prodigious rounding skills that saw him predict a sub 9% vote for the Greens in the recent WA senate election.

    In all seriousness though – is there a valid argument for the position?

  200. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    As already said, the AFR (House Organ of Crony Capitalism) has launched Operation Bullshit to defend the libs.
    The source must be screaming at the reporter, and the reporter knows Stutchbury dropped him in a big one.

  201. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    Seriously, the only thing dumber than a Torygraph Reader is an AFR reader. Who would spend $3 on a far-right rag that is basically just a bulletin-board for the IPA.

  202. Simon Katich

    LU

    Your post re mechanism design theory led me looking back on an interest I had in Elinor Ostroms work. I have been so out of the loop since then I wasnt aware she passed away in 2012.

    RIP Elinor. 🙁

  203. guytaur

    @nicchristensen: Interesting. Huffington Post and Techcrunch establish sales presence in Australia ahead of possible editorial launch http://t.co/0gQ3r0zaRx

  204. Centre

    Hey Lib Uni @ 1834

    ooohh touchy today lol.

    You are obviously incapable of following a debate.

    Unlike you, I did not resort to abuse first.

    Somebody says my comment is absurd without putting forward a valid point of view so I called him a clown.

    You see if you weren’t the wanker yourself, you’d well know that I am engaging in the debate by responding, albeit to some stupidity.

    Say something intelligent and you’ll get a response, otherwise you nick off to whatever you nick off to!

  205. Libertarian Unionist

    Using “double” taxation as a point of argument, for any purpose, is as arbitrary as a making an argument by referring to the difference between a torte and a gateaux.

  206. Centre

    tielec

    Wealth is NET of tax.

    If you tax wealth, wealth is taxed again.

    Income tax and GST is a tax + tax.

  207. Centre

    Diogs @ 1841 😛

  208. Boerwar

    sk

    [PS – Who is the Informal Party? I missed something there.]

    You certainly have.

    The Informal Party ran a campaign last election based on the principle:

    ‘If no party is worth voting for, it is worth voting for no party.’

    The IP believes that the problem is not the sociopaths, psychopaths and narcissists who rise to the top. The problem is the party systems and processes that enable these sorts of people to rise to the top with monotonous regularity.

    The problem is not any particular grab bag of incoherent and mutually inconsistent policies. The problem is the lack of systems and processes that throw up these grab bags.

    The IP therefore campaigned on the basis that if it was broken, don’t keep using it.

    Fix it.

    The IP views with alarm the very rapid erosion of the reform push inside the Labor Party.

  209. Libertarian Unionist

    Yes, Ostrom was one of a fine generation of institutional economists — the economists who didn’t sell themselves to corporatist capitalism under the cover of mathematical rigour.

  210. Tom L

    K17

    Many reasons to read the fin review, for example:
    – you live in Perth and your only other options for a daily paper are the Oz and the West
    – Laura Tingle is one of the few readable press gallery journos – generally does better than anyone writing for the Age or SMH
    – pretty comprehensive business news
    – relatively decent range of op ed writers
    – it’s easy enough to avoid reading Stutchbury’s nonsense editorials and I can see through the ideological prism often applied to reporting (ie I can think for myself and disagree with something I read in a newspaper).

  211. Fran Barlow

    LU

    [The lower your income, the greater the proportion of it you spend on goods and services that attract the GST. Hence it is always regressive in the real world.]

    Indeed. However, if the package attending it skews benefits towards lower income groups, relieving them of other costs they would otherwise have to bear, then its net effect may be neutral or progressive.

    Everyone has to have housing, and the marginalised tend to get the worst housing available if any, so quality housing is an obvious place to start. Having children constrains one’s ability to work, so childcare is again an obvious thing to support. Concessional access to public transport is useful too. The poor pay a disproportionate number of fines in rail transport (and of course $200 to a person unemployed or studying but not yet receiving any welfare benefit is huge),and if you don’t pay your fines, your licence and registration can be cancelled, with disastrous consequences for random third parties.

    I’d like to see publicly funded food coops where people could buy bulk goods at a concessional rate. I like the idea of after school care for adolescents where trained teachers could help students get through homework or run sports. Perhaps classes in cooking and budgeting could be run for parents.

    There are many ways in which you can ensure that benefits that break down social disadvantage are in fact delivered without lots of cash benefit attending it.

  212. Libertarian Unionist

    [If you tax wealth, wealth is taxed again.]

    And what is the problem with that!?

    Where does the surplus that creates wealth come from?

  213. guytaur

    @GuardianAus: GST on fresh food could cost lives and add $1bn to health budget, say doctors http://t.co/TffY4ogXlU

  214. guytaur

    😆

    “@JoeHockey: This Budget delivers even more debt, deficits, taxes and broken promises from a Government that can’t be trusted. #budget”

    I think someone has been hacked

  215. Simon Katich

    Boerwar.

    I like the mantra. I have advocated to anyone who will listen (which is very few) that there needs to be a box for a protest vote along those lines so we can differentiate the informal votes due to errors in voting to protest informal ones.

    I think I lose the listeners when I then say if the protest vote is over 30% all parties need to disband and start a new election.

  216. poroti

    Simon Katich

    India has a “None of the Above” voting option.

  217. Centre

    [And what is the problem with that?]

    Because then you are not rewarded for success.

  218. Simon Katich

    LU, Ostrom started me thinking on local government and changed my view to that they should be smaller and given more power. There is a Planning Review happening in SA at the moment and it would appear the purpose is to take more power away from local gov.

  219. spur212

    Essential Poll is unchanged at 48/52 to the ALP.

    Budget: Approve 30%, Disapprove 52%

    Would like to know the rest of it

  220. mexicanbeemer

    Zoidy

    Let the DD triggers pile up and for people to see nothing is being passed while all the nasties are hanging over everyone’s head thus overtime the demand for change may well become greater.

  221. briefly

    Here is a reaction to Morgan’s latest dismally bad consumer confidence survey, posted at macrobusiness….

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/the-epic-crash-in-consumer-confidence/#comment-364014

    I’ve been saying this for a while. We’re in retail and as soon as it became obvious that Abbott was going to win (i.e. about this time last year), things began to tighten up and spending stalled. If these stupid f****s don’t change their tune soon, we’re stuffed. Why they can’t at least say they can see a light at the end of the tunnel or something (after all they’re excellent at BS) and get everyone in a better mood, I’ll never figure. I suppose it doesn’t fit their ‘tough’ narrative. A virulent pox upon them.

  222. mexicanbeemer

    LU

    RE: Land Tax

    In light of the $80 billion cut to hospitals and schools besides the GST would I be right to say Land Tax will need to be considered by the states as it is one of their taxes

  223. Libertarian Unionist

    I agree whole-heartedly with your intentions wrt housing, Fran.

    I think a more straightforward way to get the price of shelter down is to directly attack, first, market distortions that inflate its price, such as CGT, -ve gearing, availability to self-managed superannuant speculators, etc, and second, some of the natural conditions that lead to its price exceed its worth (i.e. its quasi- monopolistic characteristics), by applying a rent-based tax.

    Of course, this is a long-term goal, while it seems to me that your suggestions can be implemented in the short-term.

    [I’d like to see publicly funded food coops where people could buy bulk goods at a concessional rate. ]

    It’s a good idea, but how would adverse selection could be avoided?

    On a similar note, are you familiar with the idea of buying “suspended” coffees? If the GP co-payment was to pass into law, Mrs U suggested setting up a program for “suspended” GP co-payments. 😉

  224. WeWantPaul

    [Because then you are not rewarded for success.
    ]

    Roflmao

    If you were trying to reward the success you’d tax wealth instead of income because much more wealth is held divorced from success where most income is linked to success.

  225. Libertarian Unionist

    Centre, I ask again, where does the surplus that creates most wealth come from?

    “success” is not a valid answer.

  226. Libertarian Unionist

    WeWantPaul, let the man answer for himself :devil:

  227. mexicanbeemer

    We don’t need to increase taxes as such, the real leakage is the subsidies and concessions.

    Also clarify which level of government is responsible for which services for example state schools should be fully funded by the state governments.

    Australia’s tax rate seems to me to be mostly fair and well balanced but some of the subsidies and concessions seem to be depleting the tax tax and thus weakening the bottom line.

  228. briefly

    [1856….Fran Barlow]

    Let’s just tax land and/or wealth instead of consumption, improve the allocation of services and goods-in-kind and deliver more cash at the same time. It has the virtue of simplicity.

  229. Simon Katich

    Poroti – I think there are a few around who do it.

    Boerwar, Is it illeism when you talk about the Informal Party? Reminds me of the Jimmy Seinfeld episode….

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Apa0nG1OfUc

    “These are Jimmys new training shoes. Before he got these, Jimmy was like you”.

  230. zoidlord

    @MB/1865

    From my reading of the DD triggers and Anthony Green’s comments is they will get reset after July.

    So we will have to go through the whole process again.

  231. briefly

    1868
    Libertarian Unionist

    I agree…again and again, I agree!

  232. Fran Barlow

    LU

    I’d like to see publicly funded food coops where people could buy bulk goods at a concessional rate.

    It’s a good idea, but how would adverse selection could be avoided?

    You will need to explain the relevance. Just guessing …

    Presumably, only those who passed a means test and had the relevant stored value card could access the concessions, or would have to be members. Is that what you’re asking?

    On housing, I’d like a progressive increase in LVRs so that over time, people would eventually have to have 20% equity to buy, which would tend to cap price growth and underpin savings. Capped price growth would allow the state to acquire housing stock more cheaply for public housing.

  233. Libertarian Unionist

    [Let’s just tax land and/or wealth instead of consumption, improve the allocation of services and goods-in-kind and deliver more cash at the same time. It has the virtue of simplicity.]

    briefly, I really do admire the way you can construct one sentence conveying the same point that I take paragraphs to make 🙂

  234. don

    Centre@1851

    tielec

    Wealth is NET of tax.

    If you tax wealth, wealth is taxed again.

    Income tax and GST is a tax + tax.

    So by your lights, there should only ever be one tax?

    Good luck with that!

  235. victoria

    One funny banner at the rally on Sunday was wtte that

    [How about we put Abbott on minimum wages.

    That moron is a waste of taxpayers money]

  236. briefly

    [1878
    Libertarian Unionist]

    brevity is my act, LU… 🙂

  237. WeWantPaul

    Let me also admire those who’ve put the case for a proper land tax eloquently in a way I couldn’t!

    The don’t tax my wealth is hilarious as per usual.

  238. Centre

    Lib Uni

    [where does the surplus that creates most wealth come from?]

    That doesn’t make sense, rephrase the point you are trying to make?

    WWP @ 1869

    *shakes head in bewilderment. Look I’m not responding to it.

  239. tielec

    I’m more confused now than I was before asking for the clarification Centre, but thank you for trying. I don’t think my brain is geared towards economic issues.

  240. zoidlord

    Palmer United Party ‏@PalmerUtdParty 2m

    The truth about Australia’s debt. It’s not what the Govt would have you believe http://on.fb.me/1lxGwM7 #budgetreply #auspol

  241. Libertarian Unionist

    [Presumably, only those who passed a means test and had the relevant stored value card could access the concessions, or would have to be members. Is that what you’re asking?]

    Yes. How do you assess who qualifies, and what are the costs associated with including some people who don’t qualify? Or, as economists say, how would you avoid adverse selection and free-riding?

    [On housing, I’d like a progressive increase in LVRs so that over time, people would eventually have to have 20% equity to buy, which would tend to cap price growth and underpin savings.]

    Macroprudential tools such as LVR limitations are useful, but I would be surprised if the banks don’t find ways around them, and they are useless in the face of a large cohort of overseas buyers paying cash.

    [Capped price growth would allow the state to acquire housing stock more cheaply for public housing.]

    That’s an admirable end goal.

  242. mexicanbeemer

    There are plenty of ways to tax wealth without hitting the family home, and in truth the Australian government isn’t that hard up all it needs is to better target its services and to reduce concessions and subsidies.

    Responding to everything with a new tax is just as lazy and greedy as responding to the so called budget emergency with fiscally stupid changes to pensions and university fees.

  243. Centre

    Yes Don.

    I do. I have put my views on that forward.

    I’ll just check the post?

  244. Centre

    Don

    Post 1778.

  245. Libertarian Unionist

    [There are plenty of ways to tax wealth without hitting the family home,]

    Remember that not everyone owns their shelter.

  246. mexicanbeemer

    LU

    Yes I am aware of that.

  247. Simon Katich

    MexB

    If you briefly ignore your reluctance for new taxes, are you against taxing the family home thru a Beneficiary tax?

  248. Libertarian Unionist

    Where does the surplus that creates most wealth come from?

    [That doesn’t make sense, rephrase the point you are trying to make?]

    Production has costs (e.g. capital and labour), and is only undertaken when there is the possibility of reaping a surplus. When surpluses are accumulated, this is referred to a wealth; it is usually in the form of accumulated capital.

    So where does the initial surplus value come from?

  249. Centre

    tielec

    It’s like you pay an income tax + a GST and are then left with x.

    You see, losers like WWP and Lib Uni are still jealous as some people may be left with a big X because they are rewarded for their hard work, innovation and business risks – and want them taxed again…on their X.

    Hope that helps 😎

  250. Jimmyhaz

    I agree with almost everything you say LU, but you do seem to have a bad habit of letting perfect be the enemy of good.

  251. mexicanbeemer

    Simon

    As I understand it a Beneficiary tax off-set is available to certain pensioners and centrelink receipts.

    I am not against new taxes just would prefer taxes be better targeted thus those that can paid do and those that can’t don’t.

  252. WeWantPaul

    Let’s make it simple:

    Person 1 inherits 10 mill
    person 2 makes 10 mill from passive investments
    Person 3 makes 10 mill in income from being smart and hard working

    Who has been the success and who should really pay the most tax?

    I just fail to see how the guy who inherits is the success that should be rewarded or that the guy who adds most to the economy should be punished hardest.

  253. Fulvio Sammut

    A beneficiary tax?

    You mean death duty?

  254. Centre

    Lib Uni @ 1893

    Ahh, the correct word is earnings not surplus.

    No, when earnings are accumulated, they are referred to as profits.

    From profits, tax is paid. Net of tax is wealth – or to use your term accumulated capital.

    *knock yourselves out 🙂

  255. Simon Katich

    MexB

    I have often wondered what a beneficiary tax would do to home prices.

  256. mexicanbeemer

    Furthermore as I understand it, once a beneficiary receives a pay-out from a Trust they are taxed.

    If a person receives income then naturally they ought to be taxed unless they are a charity such as the lost dogs home

  257. Simon Katich

    Fulvio

    Henry preferred the term Beneficiary tax.

    Death Duty isnt very hipster.

  258. WeWantPaul

    Back to the name calling centre now play nice and try and find a real argument.

  259. Libertarian Unionist

    Jimmyhaz,
    It’s a constant struggle – you should see the drafts I have sitting on my desktop 😉

    briefly,

    [brevity is my act, LU… :)]

    Oh, well played sir!

  260. Just Saying'

    David Feeney @Feeney4Batman
    @latingle says the Abbott Gvt may have to rethink whole #Budget2014 and the strategy that underpins it afr.com/p/national/bud… #auspol

    Budget quake puts PM on shaky ground
    Every so often in politics there is a moment when you can almost hear the tectonic plates shift.

  261. Libertarian Unionist

    Centre, your insistence that some forms of taxation are off limits makes it look like you have drunk the neoliberal cool-aid. Sure, somethings are stupid, but nothing is verboten.

  262. Fran Barlow

    LU

    [Yes. How do you assess who qualifies,]

    Based on an assessment of disadvantage (which could be points-based and would be multi-factorial — income, assets, educational disadvantage, postcode …

    [what are the costs associated with including some people who don’t qualify? ]

    Likely to be trivial. A food coop with somewhat concessional food/groceries isn’t likely to attract much traffic outside a short drive from where people live, and in any event, better off people tend to price their time more highly.

    Conceivably, in suburbs where there were significant potential numbers of free riders, a more robust attitude to adverse selection would need to be adopted, but if we were using stored value cards and PINs I don’t see this as a particularly large problem.

  263. dave

    Poms pay inheritance tax on assets over AUD$ 590,000 (325,000 Pounds).

    Can you imagine the howling if that was brought in here?

    { The tax is payable at 40 per cent on the amount over this threshold or 36 per cent if the estate qualifies for a reduced rate. A surviving spouse or civil partner who has their permanent home in the UK is exempt. }

    David Cameron has said the Conservatives would like to cut inheritance tax, suggesting the party may go into the next election reviving its abandoned pledge to raise the threshold to £1m.

    He made the comments when asked about his 2007 pledge to raise the threshold at which the tax is payable, from £325,000 up to £1m, which the coalition has not done.

    He said the Conservatives would have to address the issue in their manifesto for the election next year.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/24/cameron-tories-raise-inheritance-threshold

  264. J341983

    How THE HELL is Essential unchanged?!

  265. Lynchpin

    J341983, Essential is a bit like the Titanic of polls – slow to turn around. I suspect it will show a 1 point move to Labor next week.

  266. J341983

    I know – their inability to respond is pretty ridiculous.

  267. deblonay

    Business Mag pedicts an Australian recession and a business collapse_soon____________________________________
    “The Daily Reckoning ” a fairly conservative business/stock market journal…predicts a massive slow=down in China which will effect the whole Australian market and later this year and next year see our first recession in more than 20 years…really bad lck for Abbott and Hockey

    BTW..it also sees a major fall in gas profits as it seems that this weeks BIG China-Russian deal for Gas/oil/trade will see the Chinese get a 30% disciount on Russian gas…a Trillion dollars worth in all…a vast bonanza for the Russians

    Australian gas producers may have to cope with this price fall in their overseas markets see below

    http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/budget-pain-or-not-why-the-australian-economy-is-still-set-for-a-collapse/2014/04/29/

  268. briefly

    [1894
    Centre

    …..some people may be left with a big X because they are rewarded for their hard work, innovation and business risks – and want them taxed again…on their X.]

    Then again, there are negative consequences for the economy arising from pronounced inequality in the distribution of income and wealth. The total economy would actually be bigger – would create more “welfare” – if there were a more equal distribution of these factors.

    We can see for ourselves. In the last few years – when real per capita disposable incomes have been growing very slowly if at all – income and assets have nevertheless continued to accumulate in the highest-earning fractions of the population.

    Side by side with this skewed income accumulation we have observed several years of slackening labour demand and ebbing fiscal revenues. Since access to work is one of the single best ways to boost incomes (and the means to begin wealth accumulation) for the least-well paid, we MUST increase labour demand. The simplest, surest and most direct way of doing this is to transfer income from the wealthiest to the less wealthy. Household spending will expand, taking labour demand with it, expanding output and increasing the aggregate wealth in the economy.

    If you think I’m bull-shitting, consider an extreme example in which one person owned everything and, beyond the barest subsistence, the rest of the population had no residual income and accumulated no wealth. This would the least equal distribution of income and wealth possible. How would we set out to increase labour demand and economic output in such an economy? We could force the one wealthy individual to spend all their income. That is, we could conscript their spending power. Or, in what amounts to the same sort of thing, we could increase the incomes of all those who had no surplus disposable incomes – the incomes of the vast majority. The most certain way of increasing their incomes would be to just give them the money, which could be obtained by taxing the one entity that owned all the wealth.

    We would do (at least) four things at once. We would improve the equality of income allocation. We would expand labour demand. We would increase the size of the economy – that is, we would generate greater aggregate “welfare” – and add to the wealth accumulation chances of all those who were active in the economy, including the wealthiest.

    It is also certain that in a market economy, if the tax were correctly calibrated, the wealth of the entity who paid the tax would also expand to more than cover the amount of the tax collected. That is – this is not a zero sum game.

    If we want to restore dynamism to the domestic economy in Australia we have to set out to improve the equality of income and wealth allocation. This means:

    – reforming -ve gearing, which disfavours those with no property and increases the cost of housing
    – taxing wealth and/or land held by the highest decile or quintile of income and wealth holders
    – rejecting any new regressive taxes
    – reducing the taxes paid by those in the lower income quintiles
    – improving the allocation of social incomes

  269. ruawake

    Some facts on home ownership from the ABS. Latest I can find.

    [In the 2009–10 Survey of Income and Housing, it was found that an estimated 33% of households owned their homes outright (i.e. without a mortgage) and 36% were owners with a mortgage. A further 24% were renting from a private landlord and 4% were renting from a state or territory housing authority.]

    You think any Govt is going to tax the family home? You’re mad. (or a renter). 😛

  270. Simon Katich

    dave

    [Conservatives would like to cut inheritance tax]

    So its a good tax then 😉

  271. Simon Katich

    Re Essential…. does anyone know if they renewed their panel after last election?

  272. zoidlord

    I don’t think Essential has hardly moved for any party in terms of swing.

    The most telling is the percentage of people who don’t like the budget, which just confirms the Newspoll/Nielsen questions.

  273. briefly

    [1907
    Fran Barlow

    A food coop with somewhat concessional food/groceries isn’t likely to attract much traffic outside a short drive from where people live….]

    The collectivisation of food production and distribution has been tried once or twice…never been a huge winner with the peasant or the shopper…

  274. Libertarian Unionist

    So, Centre, back to my question: Where does the surplus that creates most wealth come from?

    Some economic surpluses are extracted from exclusive access to the bounties of nature, such as rights to mineral extraction and ownership of productive agricultural land.

    Other surpluses are skimmed from the labour of your fellow human beings, using political, bargaining, market or coercive power.

    On the other hand, sometimes labour is organised enough to push back against capital’s power and or that of governments in order to increase their surplus, as with the AMA and the pharmacists, and a few industries employing skilled labour.

    But quite often, institutional arrangements make it easy for some organisations to extract surpluses from society in general. This happens regularly in the finance industry and in the provision of utilities like water, electricity and toll roads. That is one reason why these industries are (ostensibly) heavily regulated or government owned.

    And sometimes, wealth does accrue as the windfalls from new inventions or significant innovations. And sometimes it is simply passed down from generation to generation.

    But my point is that there are a host of factors, ranging from the arbitrary to the down-right exploitative, that lead to wealth accumulating unequally across society. Only one of these factors is hard work, and I would argue that it is actually a small part. That is one of the reasons why I advocate wealth taxes such as the land tax.

    And before you set fire to another strawman, I think company tax should be lowered, and the income tax-free and every marginal rate thresholds should be raised.

  275. deblonay

    Melb Rally Tomorrow Wed at 11.00 in front of Public Library in Swanston Street then march to Fed Sq
    ________________________________

    This rally organised by unions and pensioner groups is about the budget and it’s harsh cuts to pensions
    ..please put this item on the social media…if you have the Know How thanks !!!

  276. WeWantPaul

    Great work briefly

  277. zoidlord

    Another famous tweet back in 2013:

    Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
    Joe Hockey ‏@JoeHockey 30 Jan 2013

    Julia Gillard has now said Australians don’t pay enough tax. New taxes coming. Her own words.

  278. zoidlord

    Another back from 2012:

    Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
    Joe Hockey ‏@JoeHockey 28 Sep 2012

    Federal Government gross debt has surpassed a quarter of a trillion dollars. When will Wasteful Wayne stop spending? http://aofm.gov.au

  279. poroti

    The UK Tories have shown what their slogan “We’re All in This Together” means.

    [Rich double their wealth in five years

    As people have seen their wages fall in real terms, The Sunday Times Rich List 2014, published today, reveals that the 1,000 richest men and women have surged to new heights with their wealth rising by 15.4% on last year’s total of £449bn.

    It means the wealth of the top 1,000 has doubled since the crash, rising from £258bn in 2009. Philip Beresford, who has compiled the list since 1989, said: “I’ve never seen such a phenomenal rise in personal wealth as the growth in the fortunes of Britain’s 1,000 richest people over the past year.”]
    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/article1412257.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_05_17

  280. fredex

    I shop at a food cooperative in the Barossa Valley. Roughly weekly.
    It provides full services and products, is as cheap or cheaper than the alternatives in the region, is very popular and provides a payback to members, such as myself annually.

  281. Libertarian Unionist

    Good stuff, briefly

    [this is not a zero sum game]

    I want to hear Bill Shorten say that!

  282. Simon Katich

    fredex – Where is the co-op?

    Need one of those around here (ade hills).

  283. Fran Barlow

    briefly

    [The collectivisation of food production and distribution has been tried once or twice…]

    As soon as I propose that as a model, your objection will become germane.

    I’m essentially proposing buyers coops, with some state funding, possibly run by some arm of local government.

    The whole red-baiting thing ill-becomes you.

  284. Jimmyhaz

    poroti @1924

    Austerity doing what it does best.

    LU @1919

    I want to frame this post and put it above my bed.

    While you’re breathing fire, what are your thoughts on company taxation? How do we best handle it for the maximum benefit to society?

  285. zoidlord

    From the discussion with GP (aka Generic Person) last night about who would be effected by the “GP Tax”, this article from the Guardian proves Hockey is a continued Liar:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/20/joe-hockeys-qa-interrogator-right-co-payments?CMP=twt_gu

    “But according to the Australian Medical Association, Gunnis is very probably right.”

    “The budget does exempt doctors’ visits listed as “chronic disease management items” from the co-payment, but these are likely to be only a very small proportion of the visits to the doctor by someone with chronic health problems like Gunnis.”

  286. briefly

    [Fran….The whole red-baiting thing ill-becomes you.]

    I know. I have upbraided myself and will try to be nicer in future.. 🙂

  287. Lynchpin

    Poroti, 1924 – seems to be the direction Abbott et al want to take us.

  288. zoomster

    In unreported news from State Conference, the rules surrounding the women’s quota have been significantly strengthened, with their application more clearly spelt out and the penalties for their breach harshened.

    !

  289. Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment

    The Game Of Tones:
    “The poor man always pays the rich man’s debts”

  290. briefly

    [1926
    Libertarian Unionist

    Good stuff, briefly

    this is not a zero sum game

    I want to hear Bill Shorten say that!]

    This is all very compelling, LU. I think there is a lot to think of and a lot to express…and now is the time.

  291. deblonay

    The Disability suffers WILL have to pay the $7 co-fee and Hockey’s statement last night on QandA is wrong

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/20/joe-hockeys-qa-interrogator-right-co-payments

  292. psyclaw

    On Qanda last night an unemployed man with multiple disabilities and illnesses asked about the medical co-payments.

    Hockey told him he’d be exempt, under the chronic illness criteria.

    However I just heard a medico-economist interviewed on News Radio, and he said that Hockey was misleading.

    The chronic illness co-payments are only waived, he said, for doctor appointments to write a Chronic Illness Management Plan, and for any appointments / treatments specified in the plan.

    So someone with chronic arthritis may get exemptions based on his Arthritis Management Plan, but if he gets the flu, or has prostate appointments/tests, or gets gout, or needs nose bleeds cauterised, stiff shit ….. he pays like the rest.

    As I said last night and this morning, I don’t agree that Hockey “did well” last night.

    Lying is not “doing well”. What a mob of pricks they are.

  293. obama44

    Does Essential oversample voters who happen to be frozen in carbonite? Why are these respondents so unresponsive to economic and political developments?

  294. Diogenes

    Psephos

    [At a doorstop interview at Canberra company Pure Solar on March 14, 2012 Mr Abbott said the Coalition would deliver tax cuts in government. “What you’ll get under us are tax cuts without new taxes,” he said]

    Without new taxes means no new taxes.