tip off

Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

This week’s Essential Research records a somewhat less allergic reaction to the budget than the other pollsters, and shows little change on voting intention.

Essential Research displays its trademark stability this week by failing to record the big shift evident from the other pollsters, with two-party preferred steady at 52-48 and Labor up only one point on the primary vote to 40%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens down one to 8% and Palmer United steady on 5%. The results on the budget are also somewhat less spectacular than those seen elsewhere, with 30% approval and 52% disapproval, and 40% deeming it good for the economy overall against 32% for bad – quite a bit different from the 39% and 48% registered by Newspoll. The budget was deemed bad for working people by 59% and good by 14%; bad for those on low incomes by 66% and good by 11%; bad for families by 62% and good by 11%; bad for older Australians by 66% and good by 10%; bad for younger Australians by 55% and good by 16%; but good for people who well off by 45% and bad by 16%.

Response was also sought in relation to particular budget measures, of which the least popular was the raise in the pension age (61% opposition, 17% support), followed by deregulation of university fees (58% opposition, 17% support). Opinion was evenly balanced on making Newstart recipients wait six months (41% opposition, 39% support), while there was a net positive response to making graduates pay HELP loans more quickly (53% support, 23% opposition). Cuts to foreign aid had 64% supportive and 13% opposed, while those to the ABC had 27% supportive and 41% opposed. Fifty-six per cent believed there was a “budget emergency” against 32% who did not, but only 24% believed the budget addressed it, against 56% who did not.

The other relative latecomer to the budget poll party was yesterday’s fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS result, which was more in line with other polls in having Labor up 1.5% to 38.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 35%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer up a point to 6.5%. Whereas Morgan polls usually combine two weekends of polling, this one was entirely from Saturday and Saturday, so all the responses are post-budget and the sample is somewhat smaller than usual. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead was up from 53.5-46.5 to 56.5-43.5 on 2013 election preferences, and 55-45 to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences.

1395
  • 51
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    Breaking: Treasurer Joe Hockey is suing Fairfax for defamation over its ‘Treasurer for Sale’ front page

    Aww poor widdle Joe, the man is a fool. He will now have to account for every cent in the North Sydney Forum account since it was set up. Who put it in, where it was spent. Dillsville stuff.

  • 52
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    this piece explains the GST and the power to change it.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fatal-flaw-in-gst-design-dooms-us-to-statefederal-funding-stalemate-20120730-239zk.html

  • 53
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    SK

    Correct. The liability is, de facto, an interest-free loan from the government to the inheritor.

  • 54
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    Haha Dr Rep on 24 now saying Hockey was lying about co payments last night

  • 55
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:37 pm | Permalink

    Yep GG, the States have no say.

    The GST is often described as a state tax, and was introduced with the political proviso that it would only be changed with state consent. However, the GST is actually a federal law that only permits changes by the Commonwealth.

  • 56
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

    Why are we calling the GP tax a ‘co-payment’?

  • 57
    Dee
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

    Dave

    Thanks!

  • 58
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

    bw

    I was using the language of interview.

    Of course the public is coming to know of it as the Dr Tax

  • 59
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    @ruawake/55

    I think the case of increasing of GST is to blame the states again, thinking that Federal Coalition Party won’t get caught out if they get the states to agree to a GST Rise.

  • 60
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    Rua,

    I reckon you need to put this bit in as well.

    “The GST is often described as a state tax, and was introduced with the political proviso that it would only be changed with state consent”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fatal-flaw-in-gst-design-dooms-us-to-statefederal-funding-stalemate-20120730-239zk.html#ixzz32EerIi6N

  • 61
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    75% of German electricity comes come from renewables

    …and most of their balancing capacity is provided by Swiss pumped hydroelectric power, which is recharged using French nuclear power, and Scandinavian coal-fired plants. There is no isolated German power system, the European electric grid is interconnected.

  • 62
    citizen
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    Bushfire Bill at 37

    Usually anything to do with Pink Batts gets a bigger splash, doesn’t it?

    Brisbane times says

    It’s believed the perjury charge relates to a claim the man made that he inspected the Stanwell worksite on the morning of Reuben Barnes’s death and filled out a safety form.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/man-gave-false-evidence-over-insulation-death-20140520-zrivk.html#ixzz32EebsfSz

  • 63
    Jimmyhaz
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    ‘The answer is to empower the states to broaden the GST or increase its rate, subject only to the possibility of a veto by new federal legislation.’

    I think that this would create far more problems than it would solve.

  • 64
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    More famous tweets:

    Retweeted by Possum Comitatus
    Joe Hockey ‏@JoeHockey Jul 17

    Access to Rudd, at a price…FACT http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/-2q2ci.html

  • 65
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

    GG

    In that article “GST revenue has sunk along with retail spending..”

    With the bonking Abbott has given to consumer confidence this can only get worse.

  • 66
    Atticus
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:45 pm | Permalink

    Opinion was evenly balanced on making Newstart recipients wait six months (41% opposition, 39% support), while there was a net positive response to making graduates pay HELP loans more quickly (53% support, 23% opposition).

    The lack of movement in 2PP is perfectly understandable when the cohort of interviewees has given these responses.

  • 67
    deblonay
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    NOW HERE’S A REALLY UNPOPULAR PM…IN TURKEY
    ______________________________________
    PM Erdogan,having been seen to slap a demonsrator/mournerin the face….is now under fire because of his aide who was filmed kicking a downed demonstrator on the road

    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/05/erdogan-survive-soma-mine-disaster.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+English&utm_campaign=8cc8c8b817-May_19_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-8cc8c8b817-102299065

  • 68
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    BB

    The Perjury case for the Batts guy made it onto ABC Radio News but was very brief. Nothing on the ABC site yet. Will be interesting to see if it does appear.

  • 69
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

    GG – let us know what weight a “political proviso” has.

  • 70
    Dee
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    Rossmg

    Thanks!

  • 71
    John Of Melbourne
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    G’day ye all.

    Its been a while. Finally a party that puts the Nations interest at heart and not the self interest of unions etc…

    William, can you plesae explain why essential in their primary vote summation show 40 when the Coalition components are 38 and 3, Liberal, National respectively giving a total of 41 and not 40 as published. This has been occurring for some time now?

  • 72
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    I reckon you need to put this bit in as well.

    Clean your eyes, I did. Thanks for posting an article that proves you are wrong as usual.

  • 73
    citizen
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    This seems to be the story that Ch7 news promised to present last night about LNP awarding a questionable contract. (I think Dee was asking)

    Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie has passionately defended his decision to ignore advice from his department and award a government bootcamp contract to a company which later became an LNP donor.

    Speaking to Fairfax Radio 4BC Mornings, Mr Bleijie said he was "glad" he had chosen Beyond Billabong over Queensland Youth Services, which his department had recommended, because he could "see clearly the decision I made back last year was right".

    On Monday night, Seven News reported Mr Bleijie awarded the contract to Brisbane-based Beyond Billabong despite his department's evaluation team finding the company would not proceed to the shortlist because its submission "lacks sufficient information and evidence on many elements on the criteria to support the claims made"...

    The Seven News story revealed that Beyond Billabong CEO Boyd Curran made a $5500 to the LNP six days after his company was awarded the government tender in August last year.

    Mr Bleijie said he only found out about the donation on Monday.

    "I wasn't aware of that and nor should I have been," he said.

    "Politicians don't get involved in those sorts of things."

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/jarrod-bleijie-defends-choice-of-bootcamp-operator-20140520-zri5z.html#ixzz32EgoKUBR

  • 74
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    JoM – rounding

    37.6 + 2.6 = 40.2, eg (I don’t know what the actual numbers are before rounding)

  • 75
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/federal-budget-sinks-consumer-confidence-20140520-38l08.html

    “Consumer confidence has fallen at the fastest rate since 2008 after the Abbott government delivered its first budget last week and has dropped a sharp 14 per cent in the past four weeks.”

    The whole budget needs to go back to the drawing board, to include taxing the wealth and increasing spending so that money is drawn into the local economy.

  • 76
    imacca
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

    Haha Dr Rep on 24 now saying Hockey was lying about co payments last night

    So, are any of our fearless press gallery going to do a follow up interview with the multiple disabled guy JoHo directed that lie to?? Would be interesting to see how he feels about that after JoHo trying to cut him down on national TV last night as being wrong.

    Come on Fairfax. You know you want to!! :)

  • 77
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    I suppose Hockey will try to claim that $11,000 purchased face time, not corrupt influence or favourable decisions.

    I suppose that the Fairfax will claim that $11,000 purchased the Treasurer’s time and hence the wording is spot on, that is to say, the Treasurer person’s time was for sale.

    I also suppose that Fairfax will claim that the headline was in the public interest, was an opinion, and was fair comment.

    This sort of legal thing usually lasts for ages and I am not sure exactly why Hockey wants to keep reminding pensioners that possibly the filthy rich or possibly their hired spivs or possibly some people something like that were paying possibly $11,000 or something like that to have a conversation or something like that with Hockey.

    One of the issues that will be canvassed will no doubt be the claims of some Coalition persons that Palmer has used his wealth to buy power.

    Plenty of messy grey for Hockey in this neck of the woods.

  • 78
    rossmcg
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    GG

    I think we have seen in the last little while that “political proviso” In relation to changing the GST would not amount to a hill of beans.

    If a Federal government wants to do if they will, just like they do with any new tax or charge, regardless what they may or may not have said previously.

  • 79
    Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    So we have 56% of respondents to this poll believing that there is a ‘budget emergency’, which is out of line with the views of credible, neutral experts on the economy. So why do Abbott and Hockey keep lying? Because it fools a lot of people, from their point of view hopefully enough.

  • 80
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    The ravening press pack, having failed dismally to out the rotten apple for four full years, suddenly discovers its investigative journalism mojo.

    Pissweak, IMHO. Core Abbott was exposed on Bludger repeatedly. Much of what has transpired was predicted on Bludger.

    Not really impressed at all.

  • 81
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    ru and jackol,

    I doubt there would ever be a change to the GST arrangements without the States signing off on said agreement.

    You can believe otherwise if you choose.

  • 82
    Lynchpin
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    The balance of opinion regarding GST and the states appears to support the proposition that Abbott is spouting bullsh!te.

  • 83
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    Fairfax will have a problem if the judgment is that ‘Treasurer for sale’ would be taken as implying Hockey was corruptly influenced by the donations by a reasonable member of the public.

    I suspect Fairfax will have a problem.

    However, it’s also very true that Hockey is a complete numbskull for taking action – drag the whole story out for much longer than would otherwise have been the case.

  • 84
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Pissweak, IMHO. Core Abbott was exposed on Bludger repeatedly. Much of what has transpired was predicted on Bludger.

    Not really impressed at all.

    Indeed. So frustrating that they managed to stooge so much of their electorate of their true intentions

  • 85
    imacca
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    This sort of legal thing usually lasts for ages and I am not sure exactly why Hockey wants to keep reminding pensioners that possibly the filthy rich or possibly their hired spivs or possibly some people something like that were paying possibly $11,000 or something like that to have a conversation or something like that with Hockey.

    And at the same time the ICAC stuff is very topical and getting more relevant to NSW Federal Libs?? Very curious behaviour unless he is going for some kind of sympathy vote which after this budget he has no chance of.

  • 86
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    Sheridan on Sky raving about the ‘Power of No!’ Where was Sheridan when Abbott was exercising the ‘Power of No!’

    Sheridan should recall Abbott’s repeated Mantra: ‘It is the job of the Opposition to Oppose!’

    What goes round comes round. Abbott wrecked civilized convention after convention, tradition after tradition.

    Hey, Sheridan! The Joint’s been wrecked by your little mate.

    Enjoy.

  • 87
    imacca
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    that Abbott is spouting bullsh!te.

    Wow, thats news for sure!! :)

  • 88
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    imacca

    I suggest that Hockey feels vilified.

    He is extremely wealthy so he can afford a bit of legal sport.

    Plus, it might calm Fairfax papers down a bit so there is a political dividend.

  • 89
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    I too see Hockey’s action as bully boy tactics. This mob shits me to high heaven.

    CHUCK THIS MOB OUT

  • 90
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    BW,

    Didn’t stop them with Craig Thomson.

    I reckon Joe is about to get a lesson in “sucking it up”.

  • 91
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

    J.

    Hockey was selling his time. It is a bit like sex workers. The price is not only per service but per time. Short time/long time. Same same. I doubt whether the courts will be wanting to go into what is fair political comment and what not.

  • 92
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

    I would not compare Hockey with Thompson.

  • 93
    Atticus
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    ...are any of our fearless press gallery going to do a follow up interview with the multiple disabled guy JoHo directed that lie to?? Would be interesting to see how he feels about that after JoHo trying to cut him down on national TV last night as being wrong.

    Come on Fairfax. You know you want to!!

    This week I’ve resumed reading the SMH for the first time in almost a decade because of comments here. They’ve been going like gangbusters for the past week because of the low hanging rotten apples which the most egregious measures in Abbott’s budget and Nielson polling gives them, but most of the Fairfax journos are still far too busy to even research anything on Google or Wiki, let alone put forth the modicum of effort your suggestion would require.

  • 94
    sohar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    If Hockey has nothing to hide why did he make his “funding” club secret?

  • 95
    sohar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    “I would not compare Hockey with Thompson” – agreed. Joe is far more degenerate.

  • 96
    John Of Melbourne
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    Thanks Jackol @74.

    I see your point but if they’re going to round then they should round the whole way through not just at one point. If I did that as an engineer I’d be wrong.

  • 97
    Jackol
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    BW –

    Hockey was selling his time.

    I’m sure Fairfax has a very reasonable argument to make.

    That’s not the point of defamation law.

    Defamation law is about injury to reputation.

    As such it is usually interpreted by what an average reader would think about the headline ‘Treasurer for sale’.

    I doubt whether the courts will be wanting to go into what is fair political comment and what not.

    Undoubtedly true, but defamation law in Australia has frequently thrown up absurd results and is among the most repressive of any democratic country. Obeid won his defamation suit against Fairfax, which with hindsight seems particularly obnoxiously wrong.

    One can only hope that the various limited free speech exceptions will win the day. I can’t bear to think of the belligerent smugness of Hockey if he wins, although thankfully that is probably years away.

  • 98
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    Thompson only defrauded a few hundred thousand union members.

    Hockey is taking cash off millions of Australia’s poor, elderly, jobless, students, sick people, young people and Indigenous people.

    Hockey’s headline, that it is for their own good, has NOT caught on.

  • 99
    rossmcg
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

    GG

    Yeah of course the states might “agree” to changes in the GST, most likely because they hope they will get some extra cash.
    But the point is the states can’t demand change or legislate for it. It Is federal tax collected under federal law and can only be amended by the federal parliament.

  • 100
    Atticus
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

    This mob shits me to high heaven.

    CHUCK THIS MOB OUT

    Victoria,
    Please correct me if wrong, but I’m starting to pick up a faint vibe that your level of satisfaction and respect for the Abbott government is not very high! :)

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...