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Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

This week’s Essential Research records a somewhat less allergic reaction to the budget than the other pollsters, and shows little change on voting intention.

Essential Research displays its trademark stability this week by failing to record the big shift evident from the other pollsters, with two-party preferred steady at 52-48 and Labor up only one point on the primary vote to 40%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens down one to 8% and Palmer United steady on 5%. The results on the budget are also somewhat less spectacular than those seen elsewhere, with 30% approval and 52% disapproval, and 40% deeming it good for the economy overall against 32% for bad – quite a bit different from the 39% and 48% registered by Newspoll. The budget was deemed bad for working people by 59% and good by 14%; bad for those on low incomes by 66% and good by 11%; bad for families by 62% and good by 11%; bad for older Australians by 66% and good by 10%; bad for younger Australians by 55% and good by 16%; but good for people who well off by 45% and bad by 16%.

Response was also sought in relation to particular budget measures, of which the least popular was the raise in the pension age (61% opposition, 17% support), followed by deregulation of university fees (58% opposition, 17% support). Opinion was evenly balanced on making Newstart recipients wait six months (41% opposition, 39% support), while there was a net positive response to making graduates pay HELP loans more quickly (53% support, 23% opposition). Cuts to foreign aid had 64% supportive and 13% opposed, while those to the ABC had 27% supportive and 41% opposed. Fifty-six per cent believed there was a “budget emergency” against 32% who did not, but only 24% believed the budget addressed it, against 56% who did not.

The other relative latecomer to the budget poll party was yesterday’s fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS result, which was more in line with other polls in having Labor up 1.5% to 38.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 35%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer up a point to 6.5%. Whereas Morgan polls usually combine two weekends of polling, this one was entirely from Saturday and Saturday, so all the responses are post-budget and the sample is somewhat smaller than usual. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead was up from 53.5-46.5 to 56.5-43.5 on 2013 election preferences, and 55-45 to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences.

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  • 101
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

    LU

    …and most of their balancing capacity is provided by Swiss pumped hydroelectric power, which is recharged using French nuclear power, and Scandinavian coal-fired plants. There is no isolated German power system, the European electric grid is interconnected.

    Norwegian hydro electric actually, which is in a grid with Danish off-shore wind.

    As you’d know, despite being a Green, I have no problem with nukes. That said, the story in its limited form is correct. For a time on Sunday the sent out power of German renewables covered 75% of demand. We don’t know what the other components were contributing to the rest of the grid.

  • 102
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    John Birmingham ‏@JohnBirmingham
    Joe Hockey is suing for definition of character.

    :lol: :lol: :lol:

  • 103
    Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

    This really is a ridiculous argument by Hockey. Hockey has cut funding to the states and then says the states want an increase in funding.

    And reinstating funding doesn’t have to come from a rise in the GST; there are lots of other ways he can raise the money to reinstate the funding.

    Mr Hockey said that as states are the sole recipients of the GST, they would "have to run the argument".

    "They want to increase funding in their areas of responsibility, then they’ve got to run the argument on the GST."

    "The states don’t want to be associated with the pain of raising taxes to pay for the increased expenditure in their areas of responsibility."

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-and-state-governments-on-gst-collision-course-20140514-zrc5m.html#ixzz32Em4hziw

  • 104
    Dee
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    Victoria
    Please correct me if wrong, but I’m starting to pick up a faint vibe that your level of satisfaction and respect for the Abbott government is not very high!

    :lol: :lol:

  • 105
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 59s

    APRA will release its research data on piracy at a time and in a format of its choosing, not subject to public demand.

    Secrecy is the heart of lobbyists.

  • 106
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

    I see that some idiot in the footie crowd decided to racially vilify the Australian of the Year.

  • 107
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    ross,

    Depending on whether the Feds are able to strip the $80bill out of the proceeds to the States, then the States have little option but to become enthusiastic about either expanding the range of the GST or the quantum being charged.

    Clearly the Federal Government prefers the GST change option and they are creating the atmospherics to make it happen.

  • 108
    imacca
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    your level of satisfaction and respect for the Abbott government is not very high! :)

    On this one i am on a Unity Ticket with Vic.

    Well…….hopefully for less than 3 years…..

  • 109
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    Maybe it is time for the Australian of the Year to resign in protest at what Abbott and Hockey are inflicting on Indigenous Australians.

  • 110
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    Dan Gulberry

    Definitely a triple lol .

  • 111
    citizen
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    Ch10 5pm news – lead item on Abbott and Hockey – seems to have dropped any semblance of “balanced coverage”.

  • 112
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    One positive for the ALP:

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

    #Essential Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 40 (0) ALP 40 (+1) GRN 8 (-1) PUP 5 (0) #auspol

  • 113
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    Atticus

    :D

  • 114
    imacca
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    have little option but to become enthusiastic about either expanding the range of the GST or the quantum being charged.

    They could always jack up something else like payroll tax.

    Or if they wanted to be really rude, do the states have the power to charge a “Federal Cuts Levy” to households?? Get local Councils to collect it via rates maybe??

  • 115
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    The stupid part of Hockey suing is that Fairfax lawyers get “discovery” of his affairs.

    That’s my (limited) knowledge of these matters.

    Can anyone enlighten?

  • 116
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    NOW HERE’S A REALLY UNPOPULAR PM…IN TURKEY
    ______________________________________
    PM Erdogan,having been seen to slap a demonsrator/mournerin the face….is now under fire because of his aide who was filmed kicking a downed demonstrator on the road

    This is the same guy they caught on tape saying he should arrange another false flag event in Syria. Confirming that they were responsible for some previous ff killings

  • 117
    J341983
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    @111 what was the tone of the coverage?

  • 118
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

    Norwegian hydro electric actually, which is in a grid with Danish off-shore wind.

    The Scandinavian hydro plants aren’t part of the European synchronous grid – they don’t provide fast balancing services – they are connected through HVDC links. The coal fired plants in the western part of Denmark, on the other hand, are part of the synchronous grid, and do provide balancing services.

    For a time on Sunday the sent out power of German renewables covered 75% of demand.

    The point is that this could only be done with the system-wide support of conventional generators. Turning a whole system over to >50% renewables presents some big, costly engineering challenges.

  • 119
    rossmcg
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

    GG

    I don’t doubt for a minute that the Tories are planning changes to the GST, but I just take issue with the spin as to to how it would happen.

    I expect much hand wringing and crocodile tears from Abbott and hockey about how the states made them do it.

  • 120
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:28 pm | Permalink

    Nine News Adelaide ‏@9NewsAdel 58m

    Analysts say @TonyAbbottMHR is less despised than @PmPaulKeating and @JuliaGillard: http://short.ninem.sn/iJyBlQd #9News

    LOL.

  • 121
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    rossmcg,

    That’s Show Biz!

  • 122
    Dee
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    Oh Zoid!

    That’s a pearler!

    Talk about polishing…..

    Newspoll chief executive Martin O'Shannessy said the polls only really count in the months before an election.
    "Keating, Howard and Fraser were all intensely disliked but they came back at election time because they were good economic leaders," he said.
    Mr Abbott currently sits in seventh place, with John Howard at six (28 percent) and Malcolm Fraser at three (26 percent).
    Source: News Limited

  • 123
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord

    Looking at this bit in your link it would be an interesting “compare and contrast” when it came to what certain groups and commentators said then compared to what they say now about Tones’ tax effort.

    1 Paul Keating, deficit-reducing taxation hike, August 1993 (17%)

  • 124
    psyclaw
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:36 pm | Permalink

    Fran

    Did you see my #1630, Page 33, previous thread, to you this morning?

  • 125
    psyclaw
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    On Qanda last night an unemployed man with multiple disabilities and illnesses asked about the medical co-payments.

    Hockey told him he’d be exempt, under the chronic illness criteria.

    However I just heard a medico-economist interviewed on News Radio, and he said that Hockey was misleading.

    The chronic illness co-payments are only waived, he said, for doctor appointments to write a Chronic Illness Management Plan, and for any appointments / treatments specified in the plan.

    So someone with chronic arthritis may get exemptions based on his Arthritis Management Plan, but if he gets the flu, or has prostate appointments/tests, or gets gout, or needs nose bleeds cauterised, stiff shit ….. he pays like the rest.

    As I said last night and this morning, I don’t agree that Hockey “did well” last night.

    Lying is not “doing well”. What a mob of pricks they are.

  • 126
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord, ha!

    They really have resorted to rolling it in glitter.

  • 127
    bug1
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:38 pm | Permalink

    “Breaking: Treasurer Joe Hockey is suing Fairfax for defamation over its ‘Treasurer for Sale’ front page”

    Perhaps Fairfax could hire George Brandis to defend them, he is big on freedom of the press

  • 128
    citizen
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:39 pm | Permalink

    J341983
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:23 pm | PERMALINK
    @111 what was the tone of the coverage?

    The Ch10 introductory remarks set the scene of negative coverage. Abbott was shown denying Hockey’s remark last night that the age to collect superannuation could be raised and also denying any plans to extend GST in response to statement by Sen MacDonald that it should be extended.

    Also showed Shorten kneeling to talk to and comfort Brisbane lady with cancer worried about $7 payments. Whereas news was cynical of Abbott, no such cynicism re Shorten.

    Perhaps it is standard practice of the commercial channels to lean the way they think their audience wants them to lean. At this moment the Ch10 lean is quite anti-govt.

  • 129
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

    "Keating, Howard and Fraser were all intensely disliked but they came back at election time because they were good economic leaders," he said.

    What a load of tripe, pollsters should stick to poll data.

    Fraser did nothing, he basically implemented ALP policy. Keating won because John Hewson went to an election promising a new tax and Howard pissed billions up against the wall and created the mess we are now in.

    Turd polishing in a new dimension.

  • 130
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

    LU

    The point is that this could only be done with the system-wide support of conventional generators. Turning a whole system over to >50% renewables presents some big, costly engineering challenges.

    I don’t agree that is the point. The point is that producing, albeit very briefly, 75% of demand from renewables is very impressive, especially in a jurisdiction where insolation isn’t fabulous. It’s the kind of result in 2014 you’d hope for if by 2050 you wanted to produce 80% of total yearly demand from renewables.

    It’s far better than we have ever done nationally.

    I agree that going above 59% renewables poses some big engineering challenges but this has been true since the term ‘renewables’ was coined and those challenges are a lot less than they were even a decade ago.

  • 131
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    Oops … Above 50% renewable … damned train + iPad.

  • 132
    B.C.
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:28 pm @ 120

    Nine News Adelaide ‏@9NewsAdel 58m

    Analysts say @TonyAbbottMHR is less despised than @PmPaulKeating and @JuliaGillard: http://short.ninem.sn/iJyBlQd #9News

    It’s early days yet.

  • 133
    citizen
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:28 pm | PERMALINK
    Nine News Adelaide ‏@9NewsAdel 58m

    Analysts say @TonyAbbottMHR is less despised than @PmPaulKeating and @JuliaGillard: http://short.ninem.sn/iJyBlQd #9News

    LOL.

    That would be from this article

    http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbott-escapes-being-our-most-unpopular-prime-minister-that-title-goes-to-paul-keating/story-fncynjr2-1226923638349

  • 134
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

    Hmmm , over at the GG this is top story and not blocked. Lordy, the video attached to the article even highlights his lie over popularity hits.

    S&P rejects Tony Abbott’s budget warning on AAA credit rating

    TONY Abbott’s charge that Labor is threatening Australia’s AAA credit rating has been discredited, after a leading ratings agency rejected claims it was poised to review the nation’s credit score.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/sp-rejects-tony-abbotts-budget-warning-on-aaa-credit-rating/story-fn59niix-1226923863924

  • 135
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

    LOL.

    Ratings agency verballed?

    The Stutchbury Roll?

  • 136
    psyclaw
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

    Dee

    re your estate enquiry.

    Probate is actually not the validation of the Will per se.

    It is the granting by the Court to the executors, the legal power to administer the estate ie sell the house, take possession of the money in the bank, pay any bills on the estate (furneral fees perhaps; old debts) and distribute as per the Will.

    I suspect that the $4K you refer to is the fee charged by the Queensland Public Trustee for managing the estate. I suspect the QPT was actually the executor of the Will.

    Public Trustees are notoriously slow, and expensive, if nominated as Executors of a Will.

    The actual cost of seeking Probate in NSW (from the Supreme Court) is less than a couple of hundred dollars, not counting the actual solicitor’s fee, if a solicitor is used.

  • 137
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

    The guy from S&P has been all over the media today, saying Abbott is talking crap. The more interesting report was one by Fitch on State ratings, which they will consider downgrading if the $80 billion funding cut is not resolved.

  • 138
    shellbell
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

    The stupid part of Hockey suing is that Fairfax lawyers get “discovery” of his affairs.

    That’s my (limited) knowledge of these matters.

    Can anyone enlighten?

    The days of large scale discovery battles have passed (sniff) but documents in his possession going to his involvement with the forum may have to be produced.

    What he spends on cigars is unlikely to emerge.

  • 139
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

    The entire Lib strategy is based on asserting we are in an economic crisis.

    This is drawing blanks everywhere and that Fin Rev article regarding the possible loss of “AAA” ratings is the just latest Lib booster to be proven false.

    No doubt the Libs will persist with their mantra. However, if the voters aren’t buying it, how long till we see the usual backflips and clarifications emerge.

  • 140
    Dee
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll chief executive Martin O'Shannessy said the polls only really count in the months before an election.

    They didn’t seem to think so when the former Labor government faced a barrage of polls.

    Seem to remember they backed up Rabbott calling for another election.

  • 141
    shellbell
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

    Kerry Stokes and a lawyer of his have managed to get a website and twitterer ordered to stop publishing info about them which is an exceptional thing to do.

    When the publisher is kangaroocourt, it is not so exceptional.

  • 142
    citizen
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    Abbott to negotiate with Senators by telling them they will be responsible for $40 billion black hole if they don’t support him – also see last para:

    PRIME Minister Tony Abbott is preparing to negotiate one-on-one with independents and minor parties after the Government today calculated a $40 billion hole could be ripped from its Budget by a hostile Senate.

    That includes talks with Clive Palmer, who was today labelled “as cunning as a lavatory rat” by the MP Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce.

    Mr Abbott said today he personally would discuss Budget measures with “all participants in the parliamentary drama”.

    And Treasurer Joe Hockey said the Budget was vulnerable to Labor’s threat to block measures the Government says total $40 billion in savings...

    News.com.au understands the Government has not attempted to open discussions with Mr Palmer but that Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has had conversations with him.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/tony-abbott-set-to-talk-to-nongovernment-senators-to-prevent-40-billion-budget-savings-blackhole/story-fn84fgcm-1226924215743

  • 143
    Dee
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    Psyclaw

    Thankyou!

  • 144
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

    Fran,
    It’s true the challenges are less, and the emerging solar thermal technology will help immensely wrt power system stability.

  • 145
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

    @Citizen/142

    Why is the ALP even bothering having discussions with the Government after they were attacked last time in Government.

  • 146
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

    Anyone know where Abbott and Hockey pulled the $40 billion figure out of?

  • 147
    sohar
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

    “Analysts say..” = Anal-ists say..

  • 148
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    rua,

    The usual place!

  • 149
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 6:12 pm | Permalink

    That includes talks with Clive Palmer, who was today labelled “as cunning as a lavatory rat” by the MP Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce

    These guys no all about making friends.

  • 150
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, May 20, 2014 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    know

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