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BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

As you may have guessed in advance, this week’s poll aggregate finds the pace of Labor’s recent breakthrough quickening after a disastrous reception to the government’s first budget, as Bill Shorten surges to a handy lead as preferred prime minister.

Post-budget polling has emphatically confirmed a second major shift in public opinion since the election, the first being a strikingly early dip in the new government’s fortunes in November, leaving the opposition with a narrow lead when the dust had settled. With every pollster but ReachTEL having produced results in the wake of last Tuesday’s budget, the latest landslip looks even bigger than the first, and it sends the Coalition into territory that was all too familiar to Labor during its tumultuous second term in office. The damage was done by Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan, with a small amount of the edge taken off by more moderate results from Galaxy and Essential Research. Even so, Labor now has a lead on the primary vote for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business in late 2012, even taking into account that the Greens have retained a healthy share of the vote, perhaps finding a new equilibrium with their head just above double figures. Also continuing to make hay out of the exodus from the Coalition is the Palmer United Party, which this week reaches a new high of 7.0%.

No less spectacular is the latest update on leadership ratings, for which near-identical sets of data have emerged this week courtesy of Newspoll and Nielsen. The slump in Tony Abbott’s standing which had become evident over the previous fortnight has continued apace, to the extent that I have had to increase the range of the y-axis on the net satisfaction chart to accommodate it. This puts Abbott at a level Julia Gillard would only have known in a particularly bad week. Even more encouragingly for Labor, Bill Shorten’s ratings are on an upward swing, putting him back into net positive territory after three months below par. What had previously been a steady narrowing trend in Tony Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister has sharply accelerated, to the extent of putting Shorten substantially ahead – an uncommon achievement for an Opposition Leader.

The state projections this week see the distinction in state swings even out, most notably in the case of Queensland where the swing to Labor got out of hand for a few weeks there. A considerable influence here was the latest Nielsen breakdown, which provided the first presentable set of figures I had seen for the Coalition in Queensland for some time. This may suggest that the budget backlash in that state was muted by the fact that Labor had less slack to take up, although there is no doubt also a large element of the statistical noise to which state breakdowns are inevitably prone. The upshot is that the Coalition’s position on the Queensland seat projection actually improves by four seats this week, testament in part to the state’s super-abundance of marginal seats. Offsetting this are bumper gains for Labor in other states – four seats in New South Wales, putting Bennelong, Gilmore and Macquarie on the table in addition to all the seats lost in September; three in marginals-starved Victoria, adding Casey and Dunkley to the more familiar targets of Corangamite, Deakin and La Trobe; and one each in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania.

In other BludgerTrack news, you now have the chance to put Labor’s poll surge in somewhat broader perspective thanks to the retrospective poll tracking displayed on the sidebar, which at present encompasses the previous three terms, with plans to go back to the start of the Howard era in due course. For this you can think the sleuth work of Kevin Bonham, who has provided me with Nielsen data going back to 1996. Taking into account the more readily accessible archives of Newspoll and Morgan, this should eventually give me three pollsters to play with over the totality of the intended period. For the time being, the display encompasses the familiar poll aggregate from the previous term; the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government, which also includes Essential Research and a smattering of Galaxy to supplement the three aforementioned pollsters; and the Howard government’s final term in office.

1618
  • 1551
    zoomster
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    I took a bottle of champagne into the school staffroom after Keating’s win.

    It took a couple of staff members aback, because they had assumed I was a Liberal voter! (My work as a union rep apparently being outweighed by our property dealings at that time..)

  • 1552
    Atticus
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    Diog,
    Most pleased by your tick of approval for the Abbott lies ad – - – - – my family contributed a chunk of change (given our modest incomes) to an email appeal from Labor Party to fund it. :)

  • 1553
    Dee
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    Atticus

    Mmmmm……really!

    "There are various types of scholarships, some of which are awarded by the institute itself, some by entities associated with the institute who seek to provide some benevolence to its students, and other scholarships, including the Accademia Italiana scholarship which are awarded jointly by Whitehouse in association with an industry partner or industry association.

  • 1554
    Diogenes
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    If anyone wants to read a great satire about a dystopia where there is no taxation and US multinationals rule the world, Jennifer Government is very good.

    Nike have just employed a hit man to kill people who buy the latest Nike shoes to gain publicity that people are prepared to kill to get them. :)

  • 1555
    Atticus
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:18 pm | Permalink

    Dee,

    Yes, ’tis curiouser and curiouser!

  • 1556
    lefty e
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

    OK here’s the rub punters:

    Are out kids are going to get dodgier educations in general,just so the PM saves on his daughter’s fees?

    Check this out, here’s the quid pro quo: dropping quality assurance standards

    [A Whitehouse insider told New Matilda Ms Whitehouse began complaining about the cost and length of time it takes the Institute to get its courses accredited by the Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency (TEQSA) – the federal government authority which regulates tertiary courses in Australia.

    “[Leanne] was saying Whitehouse had been around for 25 years, and that it’s a lot of work, and a lot of paperwork to keep it running,” the insider said.

    “She said there’s a lot of legislation and that it costs millions of dollars to get accredited.

    “And then she turned and said ‘… and yes, I am looking at you, Prime Minister’.

    “She was p*ssed – not fall down p*ssed – but p*ssed. I thought, I cannot believe she just did that. She put him on the spot.

    “But in my head, I knew his daughter went there for free, and you don’t have the grounds to ask a favour like that in public unless they owe you something.”

    Four different people who attended the event have verfied this version of events.]

    https://newmatilda.com/2014/05/23/whitehouse-denies-lobbying-pm-cant-recall-and-400-people-saw-it

  • 1557
    Player One
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    Atticus@1555

    Dee,

    Yes, ’tis curiouser and curiouser!

    And so blatant! How did he ever expect to get away with it?

  • 1558
    dave
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

    I’m half way through “Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety” by Eric Schlosser

    Lots of interesting stuff including how they had a rudimentary network computer system in the late 1950′s aimed at keeping track at potential incoming soviet nuclear bombers.

  • 1559
    Just Me
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

    1546
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    dave – the ultimate payback for 1975 was watching Malcolm blub in 1983.

    My first love was a Liberal to the core, a moderate, but rusted on. Hence I was at a Lib party that night and had to console her about Mal losing, while being quietly pleased he did.

  • 1560
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:26 pm | Permalink

    @BBCBreaking: Conservatives won’t do “pacts & deals” with UKIP at general election, David Cameron says – #Vote2014 coverage http://t.co/6BCfZPomc6

    Lots of confidence by Cameron in ability to win there.

  • 1561
    BH
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    I cannot for the life of me understand why superannuation funds don’t jump boots and all into CSP 

    That must hit everyone with any sense. It’s making me want to check it out for the kids.

    Jones did say that super funds were already wasting money investing in windfarms.

  • 1562
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    @Dee/1553

    One of my friends, she has 2 distinctions in this term, does she get a scholarship? and her course paid for?

    No I didn’t think so :p

  • 1563
    Tom
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    Dee at 1553

    “There are various types of scholarships, some of which are awarded by the institute itself”

    Yes, there have been two of these – young Miss Abbott and one other several years ago.

    “, some by entities associated with the institute who seek to provide some benevolence to its students, and other scholarships, including the Accademia Italiana scholarship which are awarded jointly by Whitehouse in association with an industry partner or industry association.”

    Yes, these are all from Fashion Australia and the Accademia Italiano for Whitehouse GRADUATES that have excelled. Notably, this does not include Miss Abbott. excelled

  • 1564
    Tom
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    sans excelled :(

  • 1565
    Diogenes
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    dave

    He’s the Fast Food Nation guy, isn’t he?

  • 1566
    Dee
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    Zoid

    We’ve heard from students at the college that did it extremely tough.

    They were not aware of scholarships or…. [entities associated with the institute who seek to provide some benevolence to its students]

  • 1567
    Dee
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    Zoid

    We’ve heard from students at the college that did it extremely tough.

    They were not aware of scholarships or…. [entities associated with the institute who seek to provide some benevolence to its students]

  • 1568
    BK
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Cop this!
    https://t.co/E78DTdKOAX

  • 1569
    mikehilliard
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Stuff Abbott & his brats. I worked to put myself through university & the day I graduated (no joke) my first child was born. Needless to say I missed the ceremony. :-)

  • 1570
    dave
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    The most relevant comment you can make about *scholarshipgate* is simple and fundamental.

    What if had been Labor – One of Rudds kids etc for example.

    FFS the tories tried to bring him down over a beat up old ute – attacking like a pack of dogs.

    Now – ABC barely mention *scholarshipgate*.

    Guardian and web outlets – to their credit do.

    abbott squeals.

  • 1571
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

    Ebay now facing UK Commissioner and EU Data Authorities:
    http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-27539799

    And some US states are joining in the frey:

    “In the US, Connecticut, Florida and Illinois said they were conducting a joint investigation.”

  • 1572
    dave
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

    Dio – I didn’t realise that.

  • 1573
    Diogenes
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    I love the way Abbott is whining about The Guardians “dirt digging” but hasn’t mentioned News Ltd asking Fran’s fellow students about their disgust at the scholarship.

  • 1574
    Atticus
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    Dee,

    The latest Guardian’s article linked below gives all of Abbott’s and the Whitehouse CEO’s quotes that appear in the ABC News report, and then it concludes with the following paragraph about Guardian’s ongoing efforts to get the facts from Whitehouse. Dare we expect that the same degree of investigative professionalism will be forthcoming from the ABC’s crack journos?

    Guardian Australia has issued a series of detailed questions to the institute relating to the selection criteria for the “chairman’s scholarship” that Frances Abbott attained, who has attained it in the past, and what the application process is. The institute has not responded.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/23/tony-abbott-denies-being-lobbied-on-reforms-by-scholarship-institute#_=_

  • 1575
    mikehilliard
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    It really is looking more & more untenable for Abbott.

  • 1576
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    I should add that my BS detector went off as soon as Abbott started making political mileage out of the pings.

    I will be accepting apologies between 8am and 10am tomorrow morning, from all those who accused me of being a Tinfoil Hat conspiracy theorist.

    If anyone wants a signed acceptance, as evidence that there are no hard feelings, these will be issued throughout the week, for the reasonable fee of $10.

    Seeing as even the pings are now under severe doubt, I currently see my position on MH-370 as being at least into the “Plausible” decile, and perhaps closer to “More Likely Than Not”.

    Be quick. I am expecting a long queue tomorrow.

  • 1577
    BK
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    Be quick. I am expecting a long queue tomorrow.

    Will the DT photoshop it?

  • 1578
    rossmcg
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    Looks like Somebody at whitehouse has a grievance about something and is spilling it all to new Matilda.

    They are doing great job

  • 1579
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    The latest Guardian’s article linked below gives all of Abbott’s and the Whitehouse CEO’s quotes that appear in the ABC News report...

    IT’s the ABC’s angle to get into this story by way of a “media controversy”. They can report on that and even be pro-Abbott.

    After going along with this for a while they can start to properly investigate, if they care to.

  • 1580
    dave
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    rossmcg@1578

    Looks like Somebody at whitehouse has a grievance about something and is spilling it all to new Matilda.

    They are doing great job

    What goes around comes around.

    Drip it out a bit at a time….

  • 1581
    cud chewer
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    I don’t trust the latest gossip about the pingers.

  • 1582
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    “@AP: BREAKING: Putin says Russia will respect the outcome of Ukraine’s presidential vote.”

  • 1583
    Atticus
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    Drip it out a bit at a time….

    dave,

    I admire your choice of metaphor, as it conjures to mind a certain bottle of Grange which was involved in a recent ICAC hearing. :)

  • 1584
    mikehilliard
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Don’t forget, these private design institutes hate TAFE. And now TAFE students will have to pay big time.

  • 1585
    guytaur
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    Good night

  • 1586
    Atticus
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    TAFE design courses have for decades been among those attracting the highest demand, so admission to them involves a very competitive and extremely thorough selection process.

  • 1587
    WarrenPeace
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    Old Chinese proverb “may you live in interesting times.”
    Abbott sure is
    Look forward to seeing more interesting things tomorrow’
    Good night all

  • 1588
    Peter of Marino
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    Would it be a wise political manoeuvre if Bill Shorten were to advocate a Lottery or Sweep Stakes for funding nation building projects such as the NBN in the coming election ? After all it might be the only easily digestable way to get FTTP after Turnballs disgraceful demolition job. I reckon it will work.

  • 1589
    mikehilliard
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    This Whitehouse stuff is all about funding. See @1556

    The Minister for Education, Christopher Pyne has outlined his views about the way the Commonwealth might fund TAFE and other non-university higher education providers under an expanded system as proposed by the recent Kemp-Norton review.

    In a speech to Monash University, the Minister said that funding for Commonwealth Supported Places would require careful consideration.

    “Obviously, only providers registered with the tertiary quality agency, TEQSA, could be eligible, and only for accredited courses; and there would be other important conditions as well,” the Minister said.

    http://www.tda.edu.au/cb_pages/newsletter_12_may_2014.php

  • 1590
    WarrenPeace
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    that should have been old Chinese curse.

  • 1591
    mikehilliard
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    It’s so obvious!

    On January 15, TEQSA awarded accreditation to Whitehouse to launch a new Masters in Design course. Whitehouse had been trying for at least a year for the accreditation.

    TEQSA rejects any suggestion that the timing is anything more than a coincidence.

  • 1592
    Rossmore
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    The private education providers are in it for one thing. The cash.

    The local one here offers a free Ipad to prospective students from their pop up shop in the shopping centre.

    What the poor mug students dont realise is that if they sign up for one of these bogus diplomas its their one any only chance at a decent level of fee relief for tertiary education. If they dont like it too bad, the private college will take the cash and sayonara to the student.

    When that student decides he/she would be better doing a recognised course at the local TAFE they’ll get limited fee relief and have to fork out $10-12K in fees for a two year course. Most simply cant afford it.

    That’s what happens when u let largely unregulated profit driven private education providers into the public education TAFE space. It’s an unmitigated mess that poorly serves our young people. Both the ALP and the LNP have blood on their hands in this space.

  • 1593
    fredex
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    http://www.theland.com.au/news/metro/national/general/tony-abbotts-friend-linked-to-60000-scholarship-for-frances-abbott-at-private-college/2699377.aspx

    This is an interesting article.
    Not for what it says but because it says it.
    Its in “The Land”.
    Ultra conservative right wing nationwide rural newspaper that caters to cockies and their mates.

    Not normally the sort of story you would find in “The Land”, they prefer stuff about wool prices and the like.
    Very strange.

  • 1594
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
    #Galaxy Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 52 (0) ALP 48 (0) #auspol

  • 1595
    mikehilliard
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    Rossmore@1592

    A very good post.

    Education lacks the sex appeal for the media unless it’s young virgins throwing their bodies under police horses. Meanwhile TAFE is white anted by all & sundry without barely a squeak.

  • 1596
    Darn
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    briefly
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 8:58 pm | PERMALINK
    Darn, I think it’s a long way off and anything can happen, but the LNP have managed to unite the country against them and to discredit themselves. Their biggest problem is they have basically decided to close down the Government. It will be very difficult for them to proffer a positive program next time. No-one will believe them. So anything proposed by Labor will look much better in comparison. As well, I think voters will react viscerally to being treated like idiots. So I’m optimistic about Labor’s chances….but 2016 is a long way off…

    What do you think?

    briefly

    If I had to have a bet right now I would put it on Labor, because it’s so very hard to make a case for the liberals after what’s happened over the last three weeks. Their strategy is in tatters, their credibility is completely shot and they now have a lame duck leader who has proven he is just not up to the job. Any one of those problems would be potentially fatal but all three together is just about the perfect political storm.

    Abbott thought he could get away with the old three card trick – hit them with everything including the kitchen sink in the first budget, then sweeten them up with promises of tax cuts and giveaways in the second and third years. But that only works if in the process you don’t irretrievably alienate large slabs of the electorate to the point where they simply don’t believe your promises the second time around. That’s the problem Abbott now has and I can’t see how he can get around it.

    IMO Labor really only needs a pv of 38% to 39% in 2016 to win if PUP polls about 7% and the Greens about 10% – and that really doesn’t look too hard with the damage that has been done – and is still being done – to the Liberal brand over this budget.

  • 1597
    Rossmore
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    On my commute into the melbourne cbd every second billboard seems to be a private education provider promising stellar careers for prospective students if they sign up for a course.

    Those billboards are not cheap. Ipso facto there is huge money to be made in private education provision. The budget gives these private providers a massive free kick by allowing students to pay for their course via HECS type arrangement.

    Dont believe a word from Pyne that they will be closely regulated. It will suck scarce education $ into a handful of spiv providers. Those same spivs who funded Frances Abbotts mickey mouse design course.

  • 1598
    lefty e
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    On January 15, TEQSA awarded accreditation to Whitehouse to launch a new Masters in Design course. Whitehouse had been trying for at least a year for the accreditation.

    TEQSA rejects any suggestion that the timing is anything more than a coincidence.

    LOL.

    Sleaze for degrees

  • 1599
    victoria
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    Apologies if this has already been linked

    ACPET member, Whitehouse Institute, had a constructive meeting with Assistant Minister Sussan Ley and two of her advisors last week. The Minister spent several hours with Whitehouse staff and their VETiS students and took the time to asked extensive questions to understand the Whitehouse VETiS model. (This involves the delivery of VETiS in blocks over 6 weeks of the students' holidays, not weekly release)

    http://www.acpet.edu.au/article/7828/assistant-education-minister-continues-pursuit-of-vet-in-schools-reforms/

  • 1600
    lefty e
    Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    #Galaxy Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 52 (0) ALP 48 (0) #auspol

    If my memory serves me: thats a 5% swing to ALP since Sept 2013?

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