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Federal Politics 2013-

May 27, 2014

Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again fails to record evidence of a budget backlash on voting intention, but finds Tony Abbott is now considered out of touch, untrustworthy, and less good in a crisis.

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The regular weekly Essential Research is the only new national poll this week following last week’s post-budget deluge, and true to the pollster’s form it fails to reflect a big shift evident elsewhere. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48 for a fourth consecutive week, and it is fact down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 5%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on leaders’ attributes, finding a sharp decline in Tony Abbott’s standing since six weeks ago, including an 11 point rise on “out of touch with ordinary people” to 67%, a 10-point drop on “good in a crisis” to 35% and an 11-point drop on “trustworthy” to 29%, while Bill Shorten has gone up in respondents’ estimations, enjoying nine-point lifts on “understands the problems facing Australia” (to 53%) and “a capable leader” (to 51%).

The poll also canvassed sources of influence on the major parties, finding the Coalition too influenced by property developers (53% too much to 18% not enough), mining companies (52% to 20%) and the media (44% to 24%). Labor’s worst ratings were for unions (47% to 24%) and the media (46% to 18%), and it too scored a net negative rating on property developers (39% to 21%). Both parties were deemed most insufficiently responsive to students, welfare groups and average citizens (in last place for both), with employer groups also in the mix for Labor. Other findings show strong opposition to increasing the GST to 12% (32% support to 58% oppose) or expanding it to cover fresh fruit and vegetables (18% support to 75% oppose); 51% concerned about Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations being closed to the public and the media against 37% not concerned; 37% supporting an agreement to resettle refugees in Cambodia versus 39% opposed; and only 5% thinking the government should be funding religious chaplains only, with 17% opting for secular social workers only and 37% opting for both.

Another poll nugget emerged yesterday courtesy of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union, which produced a UMR Research poll of 1000 respondents in the marginal seats of La Trobe in Victoria, Forde in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales, respectively showing results of 60-40 to Labor (a swing of 14%), 58-42 to Labor (12.4%) and 50-50 (3%).

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1627 comments

1,627 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

  1. Those that carry on about debt should have a long hard think about who creates the money supply, and the consequence if the government creates no more. Good governments balance economies not budgets.

  2. Hmmmm.. Fascinating dining companions in a Canberra Chinese restaurant last night.

    Malcom Turnbull, Treasurt head Martin Parkinson (boned by Abbott) and The Professor himself. Tagging along it would appear was the Daily ToiletPaper.

    [Mr Palmer did not let on that he was heading to the real power dinner of the night. “This is the life of a politician, I have to go and give a speech to the party faithful,” he said as he walked out. “We have thousands of members all over the country.”

    Certainly the power that Mr Palmer holds through his independent seat is of great interest to the Abbott government right now as it battles to push through a controversial Budget.

    The Queensland billionaire left his dining companions waiting at the Asian restaurant on the newly developed Kingston foreshore, close to Mr Turnbull’s Canberra penthouse.

    Mr Palmer anxiously paced around the front of Parliament House as his driver raced to get his silver Bentley from the carpark to pick him up.

    “I have six minutes to get there,” he said, at least 10 minutes before he left.

    Earlier in the day he had asked for the government to provide him with the same number of staffers as The Greens. It might have been the bargaining chip the government was waiting for.

    Or it could just have been a nice dinner of “fine Asian cuisine” among very rich friends.

    Senior ministers last night were surprised to hear of the meeting and even more curious about the presence of Dr Parkinson.
    ]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/clive-palmer-and-malcolm-turnbull-busted-in-secret-dinner-meeting-along-with-head-of-treasury-dr-martin-parkinson/story-fni0xqrc-1226935148249

  3. Clive has a penchant for encouraging disgruntled politicians to join PUP.

    Surely he wouldn’t be inviting Lord Buffering of Wentworth? Surely not.

  4. Good Morning

    Sprocket

    How fascinating. Maybe Abbott has gone too far for Mr Turnbull with his arrack on Medicare or education.

    Maybe he is ensuring the blocking of the repeal of the carbon price to ensure a real leadership challenge with Parkinson to explain the economics.

    Maybe even talking about how to help Palmer out with his cost by an exemption from the carbon price debt.

    Such delicious food for thought. 😀

  5. [Clive has a penchant for encouraging disgruntled politicians to join PUP.

    Surely he wouldn’t be inviting Lord Buffering of Wentworth? Surely not.]

    No way. Mal would want to be leader and there is no way Cliev would have any truck with that.

  6. guytuar

    Last night Kate Ellis was interviewed by Richo on Sky channel re the education changes.

    As in QT yesterday, Labor is focussing on this issue.

  7. victoria

    I have no complaints about Labor strategy. An example is Clive Palmer not embarrassed by having his photo splashed across the tabloids in a meeting

  8. victoria

    Well you saw my tabloid style speculation on reasons for that dinner.

    The serious part is I think Palmer is looking after himself and if he can foster Liberal division he would be pleased

  9. “@latikambourke: Clive Palmer says they talked ‘chopstick diplomacy’ at dinner with @TurnbullMalcolm and Treasury Sec Martin Parkinson last night.”

  10. Is the world going mad? Is Christopher Pyne a Labor plant in the heart of the government?

    Yesterday Tony Windsor metaphorically describes the Abbott government as grave robbers and then Pyne jumps up and merrily confirms that they are in a literal sense.

    If I were trying to advise this mob (and, frankly, they couldn’t pay me enough) I would tell them that the time has well and truly come to abandon a crash through or crash strategy. They need to curl up into a ball and make themselves a very small target.

    All they need right now to complete the picture of a government in chaos is for a few ministers to be forced to resign.

  11. “@latikambourke: Clive Palmer – dinner with Malcolm Turnbull wasn’t an official discussion. Says Libs have a ‘charismatic’ leader in @TonyAbbottMHR(Mocking)”

  12. I know I’ve made “Fat” jokes about Joe Hockey, but did I just hear Joe Hockey make a “Fat” joke about Clive Palmer?

    (on ABC-24… “He looks like he has more than one meal a night…”)