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Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again fails to record evidence of a budget backlash on voting intention, but finds Tony Abbott is now considered out of touch, untrustworthy, and less good in a crisis.

The regular weekly Essential Research is the only new national poll this week following last week’s post-budget deluge, and true to the pollster’s form it fails to reflect a big shift evident elsewhere. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48 for a fourth consecutive week, and it is fact down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 5%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on leaders’ attributes, finding a sharp decline in Tony Abbott’s standing since six weeks ago, including an 11 point rise on “out of touch with ordinary people” to 67%, a 10-point drop on “good in a crisis” to 35% and an 11-point drop on “trustworthy” to 29%, while Bill Shorten has gone up in respondents’ estimations, enjoying nine-point lifts on “understands the problems facing Australia” (to 53%) and “a capable leader” (to 51%).

The poll also canvassed sources of influence on the major parties, finding the Coalition too influenced by property developers (53% too much to 18% not enough), mining companies (52% to 20%) and the media (44% to 24%). Labor’s worst ratings were for unions (47% to 24%) and the media (46% to 18%), and it too scored a net negative rating on property developers (39% to 21%). Both parties were deemed most insufficiently responsive to students, welfare groups and average citizens (in last place for both), with employer groups also in the mix for Labor. Other findings show strong opposition to increasing the GST to 12% (32% support to 58% oppose) or expanding it to cover fresh fruit and vegetables (18% support to 75% oppose); 51% concerned about Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations being closed to the public and the media against 37% not concerned; 37% supporting an agreement to resettle refugees in Cambodia versus 39% opposed; and only 5% thinking the government should be funding religious chaplains only, with 17% opting for secular social workers only and 37% opting for both.

Another poll nugget emerged yesterday courtesy of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union, which produced a UMR Research poll of 1000 respondents in the marginal seats of La Trobe in Victoria, Forde in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales, respectively showing results of 60-40 to Labor (a swing of 14%), 58-42 to Labor (12.4%) and 50-50 (3%).

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  • 51
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

    5
    Boerwar

    Bishop getting openly laughed at.

    She always makes me chuckle. Bronny, the Un-Speaker.

  • 52
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

    Matter of public important will be… Liberals using taxpayer money to lie to them some more about the way in which they have been creamed.

  • 53
    zoomster
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

    Both Hockey and Abbott sounding frantic today.

  • 54
    Gary
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

    So no advertising campaign says Abbott. Let’s see if he’s lying about that too.

  • 55
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

    Member for Rankine gets a yellow.

  • 56
    Kinkajou
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

    Joe’s right, labor should block everything

  • 57
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

    Bowen LOL

    ‘…a stinking carcase around the Liberal’s neck…’

  • 58
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:26 pm | Permalink

    Sit down Poodle

  • 59
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:26 pm | Permalink

    The Speaker does not like the stinking carcase reference. Nor does the Leader of the House.

  • 60
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:26 pm | Permalink

    The Malaysians have had enough and left. Was it Tones waving to them ?

  • 61
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

    Good God, they’re throwing turds at each other.

    What a farce.

  • 62
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

    Burke up on a reasonable POO but the Speaker sits him down.

    I suspect she did not get the point.

  • 63
    Kinkajou
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

    I liked the polly waffle in the pool quote better

  • 64
    Simon Katich
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:27 pm | Permalink

    So no advertising campaign says Abbott. Let’s see if he’s lying about that too.

    Did he say no advertising or no gov funding used in advertising?

  • 65
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:28 pm | Permalink

    The loss of consumer confidence is apparent everywhere with retailer launching in to early sales as one indicator.

    Today’s RP data housing price report shows house prices have dropped 0.9% in a week since the budget and 1.3% over the last month.

  • 66
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:28 pm | Permalink

    But then she changes her mind, asks the Treasurer whether he was reflecting on a person, said Treasurer agrees with Burke’s original POO and withdraws.

    Absolute shambles.

    Shorten gets a yellow.

  • 67
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:28 pm | Permalink

    ‘The cacophony will stop.’ intones the Speaker.

  • 68
    stevieboy
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:28 pm | Permalink

    So, when’s the next real poll coming out. This one seems… Off.

  • 69
    Kinkajou
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

    The cacophony has only just started, my good the fireman joe is back

  • 70
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

    Messes? Fires? Kitchens? Stinking carcasses?

    Jesus wept. No wonder the Malaysians left. Over there if you insult the Speaker you get the bamboo up the bum.

  • 71
    Gary
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

    I’m pretty sure Abbott said there was no advertising campaign in regard to the budget.

  • 72
    J341983
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:29 pm | Permalink

    Wow… Abbott must be utterly rattled.

  • 73
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

    56
    Kinkajou

    Joe’s right, labor should block everything

    Labor should reject the budget in every respect. There is nothing in it that deserves support and to carry it is to share some of the odium. To the extent the LNP believe in their proposals, they should be forced to argue for them, to defend them, to sacrifice themselves to their errors. Labor should then march the LNP into defeat in the Senate and to their political disintegration.

  • 74
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

    Fran, from the last thread:

    Allowing that we agree to tax ourselves at some level, the main design criteria of the tax system should be it orders production and distribution in ways that maximise economic welfare.

    How do you measure economic welfare, which is an abstract concept, without resorting to utility or some other metaphysical construct?

  • 75
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

    Bishop gives the Member for Parramatta what amounts to a second yellow.

    She is definintely red shy.

  • 76
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:31 pm | Permalink

    BW

    As if 1600 drownings are completely irrelevant.

    If they had been “relevant” to those devising the policy then the policy would have been called something like “asylum seeker safety policy” or “kindness to the at risk at sea policy” or some such thing. The only “kindness” was to “the security of our borders” from “boats”.

    The tide of Greens’ crocodile tears about the drownings has gone out, now that the drowings have stopped.

    Our distress at the loss of life was always genuine, but unlike you, apparently, we were also concerned at the misery of life/risk of death at the aggregation points, and the distress/potential loss of life amongst those in the source countries. We don’t arbitrarily draw a line that stops at the littorals between Australia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Malaysia.

    You guys could at least have the honesty to acknowledge the facts that Morrison has stopped the boats and stopped the drownings.

    He stopped the hope for a dignified existence. He revealed the ugly xenophobia that lurks beneathe the veneer of civility towards deviance attending our culture. He showed that mateship was merely for white folk and to paraphrase Dredd-Scott, the swarthy-skinned refugee has no rights which white men are bound to defend.

    Truth is salutary, and so I will credit Morrison with stripping away the mask and showing many of the vulnerable that we are indeed as horrible as the folk running the places they were fleeing.

    But buying into the meme that this brutality ultimately served significant human interest? No, certainly not.

  • 77
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:31 pm | Permalink

    Andrew’s cannot claim pensions will always rise under his scheme. What if we have a recession?

  • 78
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    I can see the tactic: get Abbott et al to deny several times that they’re doing an extended advertising campaign on the Budget, and then ping them with a broken promise when they do.

    Clearly there’s some inside information here. Perhaps one of the printers? Are they Liberal Tradies or Labor Stalwarts nowadays?

  • 79
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    Briefly

    Agreed. They should just say the whole lot stinks.

  • 80
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    Chainsaw is grinning while Andrews is up. He is not grinning at Andrews who, whatever he really is, is no laughing matter.

    Andrews is extolling the virtues of working until you drop.

  • 81
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:33 pm | Permalink

    Don’t you just LOVE Mr Grecian 2000!

  • 82
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:33 pm | Permalink

    Julia Baird ‏@bairdjulia 13m
    Reading @RobOakeshott1′s memoir, am struck by the loving way he speaks about his wife, Sara-Jane. You can tell when a bloke respects women.

  • 83
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:33 pm | Permalink

    BB
    I think (open to be corrected) Cormann admitted yesterday that the advertising blitz was on. Left hand, right hand.

  • 84
    The Big Ship
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:34 pm | Permalink

    If ‘Essential’ were a race horse, they’d be swabbed, and there’d be a Steward’s Inquiry into their slowness to react.

    Someone must have slipped their online panelists a collective Mogadon.

  • 85
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

    Katter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ‘Will you shut up and listen…’

    Has to withdraw.

  • 86
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

    Well well well, I go away for a Couple of hours, and hell breaks loose.

    Now some people on PB are actually agreeing with me to block the entire thing, about blocking the entire thing.

    Time to mass email those in the senate guys.

  • 87
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

    A shambles of an interaction betweent the Speaker and Katter.

  • 88
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

    “@danielhurstbne: Speaker Bishop admits her bias … for the Blues. #QT #StateOfOrigin”

  • 89
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

    Michelle Rowland ‏@MRowlandMP 24m

    Liberal MP misleads Parliament with #NBN motion: http://delimiter.com.au/2014/05/27/liberal-mp-misleads-parliament-nbn-motion/ … #auspol

    What else is new :P

  • 90
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:37 pm | Permalink

    Will Hockey acknowledge the role of climate change in insurance premiums going through the roof?

    Bet you not.

  • 91
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:37 pm | Permalink

    @ellinghausen: A wink from the PM in the direction of the Adviser’s box after responding to question on health & education funding http://t.co/TafxwAVhuZ

  • 92
    Simon Katich
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

    LU

    reminds me of Spider Dijon….

    “If you want to say something, speak the plain English. Don’t run around the house in a little car.”

    http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m015zhUdO51r5kuu7.bmp

  • 93
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

    Those behind Hockey look like vampires have drained them of blood.

  • 94
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:38 pm | Permalink

    What a ramble from HoJo.

  • 95
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

    How clive is staying awake

    “@M_W_Oh: @CliveFPalmer Wake up Jeff by the Wiggles? #rockwithclive”

  • 96
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

    Katter up on an argumentative point of order and is sat down. Hockey joins the argument.

    Neither mentions climate change.

    Oh. I forgot. Climate science is crap. So are insurance premiums which are rising far faster than the rate of inflation.

  • 97
    dave
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-26/china-attacks-sinks-vietnamese-fishing-vessel-situation-very-tense

  • 98
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    JBishop looks particularly preoccupied these days

  • 99
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:40 pm | Permalink

    Now discussing huge insurance hikes.

    These are the people who claim to believe in Climate Change, but then assert that it has no consequences at all.

  • 100
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

    Come on Joe surely you could have slipped in “carbon tax” as being partly to blame.

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