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Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again fails to record evidence of a budget backlash on voting intention, but finds Tony Abbott is now considered out of touch, untrustworthy, and less good in a crisis.

The regular weekly Essential Research is the only new national poll this week following last week’s post-budget deluge, and true to the pollster’s form it fails to reflect a big shift evident elsewhere. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48 for a fourth consecutive week, and it is fact down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 5%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on leaders’ attributes, finding a sharp decline in Tony Abbott’s standing since six weeks ago, including an 11 point rise on “out of touch with ordinary people” to 67%, a 10-point drop on “good in a crisis” to 35% and an 11-point drop on “trustworthy” to 29%, while Bill Shorten has gone up in respondents’ estimations, enjoying nine-point lifts on “understands the problems facing Australia” (to 53%) and “a capable leader” (to 51%).

The poll also canvassed sources of influence on the major parties, finding the Coalition too influenced by property developers (53% too much to 18% not enough), mining companies (52% to 20%) and the media (44% to 24%). Labor’s worst ratings were for unions (47% to 24%) and the media (46% to 18%), and it too scored a net negative rating on property developers (39% to 21%). Both parties were deemed most insufficiently responsive to students, welfare groups and average citizens (in last place for both), with employer groups also in the mix for Labor. Other findings show strong opposition to increasing the GST to 12% (32% support to 58% oppose) or expanding it to cover fresh fruit and vegetables (18% support to 75% oppose); 51% concerned about Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations being closed to the public and the media against 37% not concerned; 37% supporting an agreement to resettle refugees in Cambodia versus 39% opposed; and only 5% thinking the government should be funding religious chaplains only, with 17% opting for secular social workers only and 37% opting for both.

Another poll nugget emerged yesterday courtesy of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union, which produced a UMR Research poll of 1000 respondents in the marginal seats of La Trobe in Victoria, Forde in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales, respectively showing results of 60-40 to Labor (a swing of 14%), 58-42 to Labor (12.4%) and 50-50 (3%).

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  • 1151
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

    @psyclaw/1138

    Rubbish.

  • 1152
    PeeBee
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

    Rummel, you have made two mistakes in your first with ‘it hasn’t warmed for 17 year statement’. Firstly you are referring to land surface temperature, not the globe as a whole. Secondly, 17 years is to short a time to get a statistically significant result.

    Your second statement shows two errors as well. Firstly, you somehow think the temperature should increase lock step with CO2 increase. There are many factors effecting temperature, and the increase in CO2 is like throwing a blanket over this normal variable activity. That is why we are seeing warming trending up (this is obvious from the retreat of glaciers etc).

    At least you have got the fact that CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere correct. Well done. Perhaps you could enlighten the readers here how this increase in CO2 DOESN’T cause an increase in warming. I am sure a Nobel prize is waiting for you if you can explain that.

  • 1153
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

    Retweeted by sortius
    Nathan Testa ‏@ntesta 23m

    .@NBNCo adds an additional 538 Brownfield premises to the #NBN rollout. No slowdown at all hey @TurnbullMalcolm? http://goo.gl/qbVXtE

  • 1154
    psyclaw
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:03 pm | Permalink

    Lizzie #1124

    On what grounds, I wonder, did the WA Supreme Court throw out the case for contaminated crops by neighbour?

    Two main reasons:

    1) Growing the GM crop was quite legal, and it was grown in an orthodox manner.

    2) No evidence that the neighbours organic crop was actually harmed

    The fact that the neighbour’s organic grower certification was imperilled was neither hear nor there, since his crop was not in fact “GM damaged”.

    The plaintiff farmer’s gripe, in other words, should be with the organic certifiers who are prepared to de-certify in the absence of evidence of “contamination”.

    It’ll be interesting to see if the plaintiff seeks leave to appeal to the HC.

  • 1155
    Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    ru

    Does Canberra count as NSW?

  • 1156
    Atticus
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    What happens with SOO players who aren’t from NSW or Qld? Do they not get to play?

    Diog,

    SOO is based on state where player is born and which junior teams a played on, and this has nothing to do with which NRL Clubs they’ve played on.

    Non-natives top players, especially Kiwi’s, impact hugely upon the club games the weekend prior to SOO. This can an egregious penalty against some clubs with multiple SOO players and no non-native stars, given that inclusion in the playoffs is often only gained or missed by a single game.

  • 1157
    crikey whitey
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    Bushfire Bill

    http://indaily.com.au/perks/2014/05/28/budget-brings-short-term-pain-sa-businesses/

  • 1158
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

    psyclaw

    Thank you.

  • 1159
    crikey whitey
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes

    http://indaily.com.au/news/2014/05/28/revealed-initiated-hamilton-smith-alliance/

  • 1160
    BH
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

    Victoria
    Julie Owens speech early today was a cracker. She belted the debt mantra but did it with style, smiles and a few asides back at old Bronnie (I can call her old cos I am too).

    See if you can get it from Hansard. Well worth it.

  • 1161
    psyclaw
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    Rua #1147

    Here is the strict description of pension rises.

    The pension is increased to reflect growth in the Consumer Price Index and the Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index, whichever is higher. When wages grow more quickly than prices, the pension is increased to the wages benchmark.

    My simplified description was focussed on what the Abbotteers want to do ie eliminate the effect of the last sentence.

  • 1162
    ruawake
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    Does Canberra count as NSW?

    Yep the Raiders are registered in Queanbeyan.

  • 1163
    poroti
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    Anyone spot the trend ? Top three hottest years

    1) 2010
    2) 2005
    3) 1998

  • 1164
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

    Apparently $1 trillion dollars is in foreign accounts in the US, avoiding paying local taxes.

  • 1165
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    foreign accounts I mean :)

  • 1166
    rummel
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    1162
    ruawake
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:10 pm | PERMALINK
    Does Canberra count as NSW?

    Yep the Raiders are registered in Queanbeyan.

    The Raiders are a Queanbeyan Team!

  • 1167
    psyclaw
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    Zoid #1151

    Perhaps you will be able to comprehend my #1161, which comes from the Dept of Human Services and sorry, it is not rubbish.

    Watch out that the bull you have grabbed by the tail does not turn around and butt you!

  • 1168
    PeeBee
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    Poroti, I can you one person who can’t: Rummrl.

  • 1169
    Atticus
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    Does Canberra count as NSW?

    Diog,
    As a boy raised in Canberra would most likely play in a comp that includes teams from Queanbeyan etc, then I think it’s a fair bet they’d play for NSW.

  • 1170
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    Up to a point, I agree with you Rummel. Our opinions here about the physics of the climate anomaly can’t change what they are. While I find those who reject the science to be at best ridiculous, these days I am over chastising them.

    The debate, on the science, such as there was one, effectively ended two decades ago and from then the only debate was about how to respond to the science. The opponents of policy tried muddying the waters by pretending that there was an ongoing debate amongst serious scientists, but hardly anyone who was literate or numerate (apart from the usual cast of shills and oddballs) gave that nonsense a passing glance.

    Here in Australia, we have a regime that recognises that reality by denying that it denies the science and pretending it is interested in abatement. So the argument here is simply about what the best abatement policy should entail. Why anyone should be bothered about what you make of all that isn’t obvious.

  • 1171
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:16 pm | Permalink

    @psyclaw/1167

    When you stop quoting Department of Human Services and start reading into what Kevin Andrews/Joe Hockey/Tony Abbott is proposing, then come back to me.

  • 1172
    poroti
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    psyclaw

    Thank you for the explanation. I was feeling the farmer was hard done by until I read this bit. Can’t see how he would have won if that was the case.

    .... the organic certifiers who are prepared to de-certify in the absence of evidence of “contamination”.

  • 1173
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    Oh no, Peppa Pig is being cut from the ABC (instead of Qanda).

  • 1174
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    markjs – They can’t shift to a more positive strategy because this government quite fundamentally, doesn’t believe in government. It thinks it’s there to dismantle government (and hand out the bits to its crony mates). That’s it. This is the dark-matter government. All it will ever project is negative energy. If the Australian people are prepared to cop that, we are doomed.
    But, of course, the biggest joke is going to come when they start offering fistfuls of cash? Budget emergency? What budget emergency?

  • 1175
    Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

    crikey

    The Advertiser journos asked what I thought about MHS outside Mitcham Primary. His kid and my kid go there. I told them I thought he’d done the best thing for the state.

  • 1176
    fredex
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

    rummel
    You responded as to when you would accept AGW

    1.When the world starts warming again after the 17 halt then yes, it’s warming.
    2.Will I believe its due to man?
    3.No, as the models did not pick it and the c02 did not slow down. In fact we smashed through the magic 400 ppm.

    Each of those statements I have numbered from you is false.
    Wrong. Untrue. Incorrect.

    1.
    There has been no 17 year halt. Never was.
    Several years since 1998 have been hotter globally than 1998.
    2005 and 2009 for example were both hotter than 1998.
    That alone, makes #1 false.
    Without resorting to a stack of similar records.

    Source NASA GISS

    As Jim Hansen stated on exactly this topic:

    “The global record warm year, in the period of near-global instrumental measurements (since the late 1800s), was 2005. Sometimes it is asserted that 1998 was the warmest year. The origin of this confusion is discussed below.”

    Read that slowly.
    It specifically debunks your false statement.

    Now I can get on to #2 later, I can give cites for the data for the quote above and you can read and try to understand Hansen
    If you, in sincerity, ask to be enlightened by Hansen at al.
    Seriously.
    As in be willing to learn and not continue to be a dupe of the Boltistas.

    Either way:
    Will you please, for your sake, stop repeating the false statement that warming has stopped in the last 17 years.

    ps Sorry Fran but I think rummel needs to be corrected or others, given the pervasive nature of denialist propaganda, may think he is correct.

  • 1177
    Astrobleme
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    Rummel

    Do you get your info from Watts up With That?
    Because you are posting nonsense.

    Again, if you want to understand the science of climate change (AGW) then you actually need to read it.

    For example, This:

    “When the world starts warming again after the 17 halt then yes, it’s warming. Will I believe its due to man? No, as the models did not pick it and the c02 did not slow down. In fact we smashed through the magic 400 ppm.”

    Is just a bunch of nonsense. None of this relates to actual facts or information it’s just a bunch of memes you read on a blog somewhere and decided was true.

  • 1178
    mikehilliard
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    For a moment today listening to QT I was a bit confused as to who the opposition was, Labor or Liberal.

  • 1179
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    BH

    I watched kate Ellis, Julie Owens, Julie Collins, the member for Bendigo (whose name escapes me) and Rob Mitchell speak on the MPI. I just felt that julie Collins was heartfelt in her message

  • 1180
    poroti
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord

    Oh no, Peppa Pig is being cut from the ABC (instead of Qanda).

    Well of course . Piers Akerman was on to her subversion some time back. Won’t bother linking to the article.

    Tired ABC needs to broaden its horizons

    "Even the cartoon character Peppa Pig pushes a weird feminist line that would be closer to the hearts of Labor’s Handbag Hit Squad than the pre-school audience it is aimed at."

  • 1181
    Steve777
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

    Peppa Pig is being cut for being a communist greenie feminest agitator.

  • 1182
    psyclaw
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

    Zoidland

    The Dept of Human Services describes the current indexation.

    Andrews’ and Hockey ‘s views do not need to be interpreted …. they are quite upfront about detrimenting pensioners.

    They want to return pension indexation to CPI fullstop.

    In 2009 Labor (Jenny Maclin) “developed” (by ABS) and implemented the Pensioner Based Living Cost Index, a CPI specifically based on pensioner spending patterns.

    In the March quarter 2009, the CPI rose 0.1% and the PBLCI (“pensioner CPI”) rose 0.9% for example.

    Pensioner indexation currently gets 3 bites of the cherry so to speak …. rises are based on the highest of CPI, PBLCI, and average weekly wages rises.

  • 1183
    crikey whitey
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:30 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes.

    That article will give the naysayers a bit of pause. Especially the media.

    Hope you got your piccie taken!

  • 1184
    lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

    the absence of evidence of “contamination”

    Depends on the definition of contamination, doesn’t it.

  • 1185
    Simon Katich
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    Peppa Pig axed!?

    I am choc-a-block full of the angry pills about that!

    Very very unhappy. ABC, that’s the last straw. We are over! Capital O, capital V, capital E, capital R…..
    OVER!

  • 1186
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    @psyclaw/1182

    The current indexation is just that, current.

    They are not going to stop at CPI, as we have shown in the UK situation, they will move to a universal system (which has massive troubles on it’s own).

    I personally don’t care what Jenny Macklin said or done in 2009, that’s 5 years ago.

    You are ignoring what I and ruawake are saying.

  • 1187
    poroti
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    lizzie

    If his crop had been contaminated by drifting pollen from the GM using farmer then a genetic test on the seeds would have shown it to have happened, or not as the case may be.

  • 1188
    Simon Katich
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    Get rid of the Drum. And Qanda.

    But Peppa Pig!? GRRRRRRRRR!

  • 1189
    shellbell
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    I have the complete recordings of Peppa Pig.

    Everyone plus Piers Akerman is welcome to come over and watch.

  • 1190
    psyclaw
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    Zoidland

    From the Budget Papers

    From July 2017, the rate of the Age Pension (and other pension payments) will be indexed according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) only

    Keep up!

  • 1191
    PeeBee
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

    Fredex, I agree with you. Rummel doesn’t come on this blog to call wamists (sic) nasty names so a civilised discourse is possible. I originally thought that he was a troll to get a rise, but I am now of a different opinion. I would say that Rummel has very little grasp of physics, statistics, chemistry or had much experience in collecting a large complicated set of real world observations and deducing the probable cause, let alone projecting future implications of it continuing.

    I suspect that his knowledge of global warming has been gleamed from the likes of Alan Jones, Andrew Bolt and the curer of AIDS, Lord Monkton himself.

    Let Rummel post his talking points so we can show him how he has been duped, you never know, he may think about our replies. (Yes I know, it has been done thousands of times before, but like a zombie that keeps rising from the grave, someone has to run the stake through the heart to stop it running amok).

  • 1192
    rummel
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

    1181
    Steve777
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:27 pm | PERMALINK
    Peppa Pig is being cut for being a communist greenie feminest agitator.

    Only the ABC could come up with cutting its most popular show to save money lol. Not even Ten is that daft.

  • 1193
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    @psyclaw/1190

    Do keep up, as per what ruawake said, they want to move to a single measure, not all 3.

    CPI is linking to wages, the wages are in a free fall.

  • 1194
    psyclaw
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    Zoid

    They are not going to stop at CPI, as we have shown in the UK situation, they will move to a universal system (which has massive troubles on it’s own).

    You’ll have to do better than that ….

    “a universal system … ??????”

  • 1195
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

    1192

    One suggestion I heard as to where the ABC should cut, because of the Coalition`s budget cuts, is rural and regional services because they are the areas that vote for the Coalition and heavily use the ABC`s services. The Nats and rural Libs would feel the pain.

  • 1196
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    @psyclaw/1194

    Single payments system.

    Latest debacle:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2637895/A-good-day-ministers-bury-bad-news-IDS-benefits-plan-chaos-classed-failure.html

  • 1197
    victoria
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:41 pm | Permalink

    Channel 10 news showed a student protest here in Melbourne. This time the focus was Abbott’s daughter’s scholarship in contrast with higher fees for everyone else.

    My youngest who is 16, proceeded to tell me about the scholarship. Social media has been abuzz with it for days.

  • 1198
    psyclaw
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

    Zoid

    “Do keep up, as per what ruawake said, they want to move to a single measure, not all 3.”

    Can you read?

    Yes. The budget moves the indexation to a “single system” ie CPI for aged pensions and all centrelink pensions.

    WTF !!!!! (sighs in utter frustration)

    That’s exactly what I am saying! I’ve said it 4 times, you don’t (can’t ?) read it, yet you want to argue.

  • 1199
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

    PeeBee

    Let Rummel post his talking points so we can show him how he has been duped, you never know, he may think about our replies. (Yes I know, it has been done thousands of times before, but like a zombie that keeps rising from the grave, someone has to run the stake through the heart to stop it running amok).

    I think that’s vampires. Zombies are harder to stop.

  • 1200
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

    @psyclaw/1198

    Yes I did read, it means you get less.

    How hard is it to understand?

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