tip off

Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again fails to record evidence of a budget backlash on voting intention, but finds Tony Abbott is now considered out of touch, untrustworthy, and less good in a crisis.

The regular weekly Essential Research is the only new national poll this week following last week’s post-budget deluge, and true to the pollster’s form it fails to reflect a big shift evident elsewhere. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48 for a fourth consecutive week, and it is fact down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 5%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on leaders’ attributes, finding a sharp decline in Tony Abbott’s standing since six weeks ago, including an 11 point rise on “out of touch with ordinary people” to 67%, a 10-point drop on “good in a crisis” to 35% and an 11-point drop on “trustworthy” to 29%, while Bill Shorten has gone up in respondents’ estimations, enjoying nine-point lifts on “understands the problems facing Australia” (to 53%) and “a capable leader” (to 51%).

The poll also canvassed sources of influence on the major parties, finding the Coalition too influenced by property developers (53% too much to 18% not enough), mining companies (52% to 20%) and the media (44% to 24%). Labor’s worst ratings were for unions (47% to 24%) and the media (46% to 18%), and it too scored a net negative rating on property developers (39% to 21%). Both parties were deemed most insufficiently responsive to students, welfare groups and average citizens (in last place for both), with employer groups also in the mix for Labor. Other findings show strong opposition to increasing the GST to 12% (32% support to 58% oppose) or expanding it to cover fresh fruit and vegetables (18% support to 75% oppose); 51% concerned about Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations being closed to the public and the media against 37% not concerned; 37% supporting an agreement to resettle refugees in Cambodia versus 39% opposed; and only 5% thinking the government should be funding religious chaplains only, with 17% opting for secular social workers only and 37% opting for both.

Another poll nugget emerged yesterday courtesy of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union, which produced a UMR Research poll of 1000 respondents in the marginal seats of La Trobe in Victoria, Forde in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales, respectively showing results of 60-40 to Labor (a swing of 14%), 58-42 to Labor (12.4%) and 50-50 (3%).

1627
  • 101
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

    Bishop has a senior’s moment. Silence in the House while the Speaker figures out who is rostered for the next question.

  • 102
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

    Retweeted by sortius
    UNCLE ‏@UNCLE80075178 May 26

    Astonishing, retail sector slumped 5.1% after budget. Went up 1.8% after Labor’s in 2012. #auspol pic.twitter.com/srnuWQV7m5

    Oh dear!

  • 103
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

    v
    yep.

  • 104
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:42 pm | Permalink

    BRIEFLY – I got into a cab in Sydney last night and the cabbie was complaining that he just couldn’t make a buck these days. He said that there are so many drivers on the roads cabs are being used 24 hours a day) so that for a 12 hour shift, after paying his hire and LPG (about $270) he took home about $170. He reckoned that a few years ago he would take home $300.
    A good sign the economy is going pear-shaped?
    Anyway, the driver loved it when I bitched about the way plate-owners were screwing drivers and customers. He thought it was Christmas.

  • 105
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:42 pm | Permalink

    It was a good question. The 70 year rule will apply to all equally. But life exptancy varies significantly.

    It could have been shorter: Aboriginal male life expectancy is 69. Where is the justice in the 70 year rule?

  • 106
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:43 pm | Permalink

    Shorten gets a will desist.

  • 107
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:43 pm | Permalink

    Someone please throw Tones a bigger pair of budgie smugglers.

  • 108
    citizen
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:43 pm | Permalink

    Let’s see how BBishop would handle this in parliament. Abbott would be scared out of his wits at what students can do:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QL3v9QPegI

    Published on Mar 19, 2014
    Several hundred opponents of a far-reaching trade pact with China occupied Taiwan's legislature late on Tuesday, further delaying action on a measure that Beijing strongly favors. The protesters burst into the legislative chamber, knocking down a large metal gate in the process, and used chairs to block police from entering the building.

  • 109
    rossmcg
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:43 pm | Permalink

    Abbot is referring a lot to shortens role in the Rudd-Gillard wars.

    Clutching at straws in trying to defend budget.

  • 110
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:44 pm | Permalink

    Anyway, the driver loved it when I bitched about the way plate-owners were screwing drivers and customers. He thought it was Christmas.

    Good stuff K17!

  • 111
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:45 pm | Permalink

    citizen,

    Nothing to see!

    It was just the lively overflow from the Liberal Party funder she was hosting!

  • 112
    Kinkajou
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:45 pm | Permalink

    Dutton talks!!!!!! But its shit, does that count?

  • 113
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:45 pm | Permalink

    “@JillHallMP: Hockey has resorted to form by hurling personal insults at Leader of Opposition #qt #auspol”

  • 114
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:45 pm | Permalink

    65
    Greensborough Growler

    Today’s RP data housing price report shows house prices have dropped 0.9% in a week since the budget and 1.3% over the last month.

    GG, the RP report is based on transactions agreed in April, so they presage the budget shock. If anything, they reflect the accumulated pressure of poor income growth, now persistent for several years, and the effects on prices of speculative demand.

    Demand for housing by owner-occupiers, especially new home buyers, has been receding for some time.

    This all stems from recessed real per capita income growth. In all, since mid 2011, real per capita incomes have declined by around 7%. Partly this reflects stagnation in hours worked (down by 3.8% in per-worker terms); and partly it reflects growth in nominal incomes that has lagged inflation. The LNP are now saying to households that their incomes are going to be further cut as a matter of ideological preference.

    They are absolute idiots. When incomes are already in recession, the LNP has had the loudhailer turned up full: incomes are going to be trashed into the foreseeable future.

    We are at a very dangerous juncture for this economy. If the exchange rate starts to weaken, there will be immediate consequences for fuel prices which will rapidly cut further into real per capita disposable incomes. This real-money effect will easily translate into reduced consumption spending and, from there, to jobs, investment and fiscal collections.

    The exchange rate hasn’t moved today (it’s up a little), but this is now the key space for the economy imo.

  • 115
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:46 pm | Permalink

    None of the Medicare rebate goes to cut spending you turnip Dutton.

  • 116
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:46 pm | Permalink

    rossmcg,

    Now would leadership coups be on Abbott’s mind at the moment?

  • 117
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:46 pm | Permalink

    Dutton’s lips are moving.

  • 118
    paaptsef
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:46 pm | Permalink

    Fredex @ 41
    http://images.smh.com.au/2012/05/30/3337164/pynelater-20120530151558833170-420×0.jpg

  • 119
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:47 pm | Permalink

    Now we know why Dutton never said anything in Opposition. He was learning to count to seven.

  • 120
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:47 pm | Permalink

    Immunization rates/GP tax nexus.

  • 121
    Tom Hawkins
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

    If ‘Essential’ were a race horse, they’d be swabbed, and there’d be a Steward’s Inquiry into their slowness to react.

    I certainly wouldn’t use them to carry out market research for me. How could you trust the results.

  • 122
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

    Abbott stumbling again.

  • 123
    guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

    Abbott now saying AMA etc liars

  • 124
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

    A couple more desists.

    Bishop has been instructed by Pyne not to issue reds.

  • 125
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

    A ‘will desist’ followed with ‘or is warned’. A conditional yellow? New class of warning?

  • 126
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

    Abbott has nothing left, he is relying on unicorns.

    Immunisations at community health care centres would still attract the rebate, you parsnip Abbott.

  • 127
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

    Pyne, you farking muppet, a bank can’t force you to pay back your loans through the tax system.

  • 128
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

    I’ve had enough of this crap at QT!

  • 129
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

    Essential can’t be all bad. It records 29% of people regarding Abbott as trustworty.

    That would be the rusted ons who know perfectly well that he is not trustworthy but are barracking from the home team.

  • 130
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:55 pm | Permalink

    Speaker just called the Manager for Opposition Business the Member for Watson.

  • 131
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:55 pm | Permalink

    What’s this new “mantra” rubbish that Bronny has been going on about today?

  • 132
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

    Unicorn

  • 133
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar
    She’s been doing it all week to Burke.

  • 134
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

    Why hasn’t Labor walked out and called a press conference yet?

  • 135
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:57 pm | Permalink

    Ms Bishop looks like she is reading intercepted Indonesian comments about her character and capabilities.

  • 136
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:58 pm | Permalink

    Ah Mr broadbent friend of thr mafioso elite, asks a question of truffles

  • 137
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:59 pm | Permalink

    Mr Turnbull is up and enjoying himself.

    He is probably the only Government member who is truly happy to see Abbott stumblebumming his way through the prime ministership.

  • 138
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:59 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    She finally cracked a smile when truffles was doing his comedy routine

  • 139
    BH
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:59 pm | Permalink

    Oh gawd, Govt losing it in QT so Comedy Central Turnbull is brought on.

  • 140
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

    A message for Malcolm Turnbull: Martin Hamilton-Smith says hi…

  • 141
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

    Also the first time that those behind a Liberal are actually laughing.

  • 142
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

    RD
    Very funny.

  • 143
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

    Another yellow.

  • 144
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    Abbott be very, very worried. Turnbull shines while you stumble. The knives are a-sharpening.

  • 145
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

    Rex D

    Good one

  • 146
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

    104
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    BRIEFLY – I got into a cab in Sydney last night and the cabbie was complaining that he just couldn’t make a buck these days. He said that there are so many drivers on the roads cabs are being used 24 hours a day) so that for a 12 hour shift, after paying his hire and LPG (about $270) he took home about $170. He reckoned that a few years ago he would take home $300.
    A good sign the economy is going pear-shaped?
    Anyway, the driver loved it when I bitched about the way plate-owners were screwing drivers and customers. He thought it was Christmas.

    K17, this is an excellent example of how inflated asset prices (the price of plates) result in lower wages – in this case the reduction is not only real, but also nominal. The drivers are being shafted.

  • 147
    autocrat
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

    18% of people think that the Libs aren’t close enough to property developers? WTF?

  • 148
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

    Another string of will desists.

    If this keeps up this will be a historic QT: it will be the first time that more Government members were tossed out than Opposition members.

  • 149
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

    Abbott doesn’t know the answer to this question so he is crapping on.

    Comes up with some crap unicorn about breast cancer.

  • 150
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

    Just as Turnbull gets up.

    Description:
    Broadband
    Some Broadband Customers in Nedlands have been disconnected and unable to reconnect to the Internet. Affected customers will be unable to access web sites and check email. Please be aware Netphone customers may be unable to place or receive calls.

    Technical Summary:
    Connectivity to the Nedlands exchange has been lost.

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...