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BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor

With nothing much doing in polldom this week, the momentum to Labor established by the post-budget results carries over into this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading.

With just about every pollster in the game taking the field last week to gauge budget reaction, there is a corresponding lull this week, the trusty weekly Essential Research being the only new data point nationally. Since this of itself doesn’t bear much weight in the model, the change since last week is more to do with pre-budget polling fading from the system than any recorded shift from last week to this. The trendlines instead move a little further along the trajectories set for them last week, with Labor up a further half a point on the primary vote, the Liberals down correspondingly, and a lift for the Greens boosting the two-party preferred shift to 0.8%.

There has been one substantial new poll result this weak, and that’s been a relatively mild result for the Coalition in Galaxy’s Queensland-only poll (which, interestingly enough, was exactly replicated in the small-sample Queensland component of this week’s Essential poll). However, the BludgerTrack model only uses state-level polling to determine the manner in which the national vote is apportioned between the states, so the effect of this result has been to soften Labor’s numbers in Queensland while fractionally improving them everywhere else. Since Queensland’s is the mother lode when it comes to marginal seats, the swing in the national result has yielded Labor little gain on the total seat projection, as gains of one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia have been counter-balanced by a loss of three in Queensland.

The other BludgerTrack news for the week is that the retrospective poll tracking charts have as promised been extended to the start of the Howard era, the results of which you can see on the sidebar. There is no new data this week on leadership ratings, so the results on the sidebar remain as they were a week ago.

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  • 1251
    kezza2
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    absoltetwaddle

    Do you believe I was being genuine in saying that? Or that I’m just faking it?

    Why ask me? Aren’t you sufficiently self-aware to be able to say that you’re genuine. Or that you are not faking it.

    I don’t know you from a bar of soap.

  • 1252
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Everything

    But you didn’t say that, you said ‘Buddhism’ doesn’t view homosexual people negatively. As practised in predominantly Buddhist countries, the mainstream denominations view homosexuality as a result of bad karma.

    Hardly a ringing endorsement.

  • 1253
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    Everything
    That wasn’t hard
    http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Dalai-Lama-Speaks-on-Gay-Sex-He-says-it-s-wrong-2836591.php
    Dali lama is as homophobic as the Pope

  • 1254
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    Using ‘Gone with the Wind’ as source material for some insightful commentary on what is happening on an NRL field is, at best, gobsmackingly stupid and, at worst, using a film to launder, for current day commentary, rank racist attitudes involving institutionalising ‘darkeys’ as less than human and worthy of slave status. Hell, they could not even say, ‘qutting time’ properly, could they?

    BW, you can be a pompous, pontificating prick at times.

    I guess that makes two of us.

    It was a game of Rugby League, for f**k’s sake.

    Lighten up a little.

    Not every live football commentator, observing the play-by-play of a game on the run, can afford to sit back at the leisure you seem to have aplenty for judging others, the better to evaluate the relative nuances of referring to this movie or that.

    “Gobsmackingly bad” is gobsmackingly overstating the case.

    I’d have though “gauche” or “a bit tacky” might have served to more accurately describe the sin the commentator is accused of.

    From what I’ve heard of his on-air efforts usually on a Saturday arvo in the car,, he’s fair, reasoned and intelligent in his job, gives an accurate, fair, considered and informative description of the state of play and is not prone to overstatement or emotional explosions like so many other commentators are.

    He used a clumsy description, for which he should possibly apologize, but his expression was not deserving of the phrase “gobsmackingly bad”. In the context of the film, which he remembered obviously only in approximate detail, the phrase he used – “the old darkie” – reasonably conformed to the overall thrust of the movie.

    He wasn’t commenting on specific players, or the racial status quo in Australia. He was using a movie analogy to make a point about the chain of command in the game: there is only one boss on the field, and it doesn’t do to have ordinary rand-and-file players dictating strategy.

  • 1255
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    kezza

    “Why ask me? Aren’t you sufficiently self-aware to be able to say that you’re genuine. Or that you are not faking it.”

    I’m asking because the impression I gain from your posts is that you believe only women are capable of feeling true outrage at what happened in India.

    If I got the wrong impression then tell me.

  • 1256
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Oakeshott Country

    “Dali lama is as homophobic as the Pope.”

    But, no TRUE Buddhist is homophobic! ;)

  • 1257
    kezza2
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    absolutetwaddle

    You got the wrong impression.

    Consider yourself told.

  • 1258
    boomy1
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    Kezza
    What are you doing?
    I am an active member of the Australian Labor Party.
    I do the HTV’s and wire the core-flutes to the stobie poles.
    Funnily, I like you even though you spew forth details of the Mo-town life I have already lived.
    You’ve got heart. better than nothing.
    Take Care, you sometimes write well

  • 1259
    swamprat
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    He used a clumsy description, for which he should possibly apologize...

    i would prefer him to apologise!!!

  • 1260
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    kezza

    Cool. Then rest assured a lot of us degenerate Western males are nonetheless outraged at what happened.

  • 1261
    swamprat
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    [But, no TRUE Buddhist is homophobic! ;) }

    But lots of old straight (and repressed gay) men are homophobic.

    Maybe the dali lama is just another old straight man.

  • 1262
    rummel
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    Jesus! What a heavy night on PB… i’m staying right out of it. Ta ta.

  • 1263
    swamprat
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    rummel

    scared of science and gay stuff!!

    Must be a Liberal!!!!

  • 1264
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    I’ve just been reading the last Annual Report for the Department of Finance (it relates to the budget).

    Page 21:
    “contributes to the government’s reform agenda by improving the effectiveness of government spending and ensuring improved frameworks for the development and implementation of value-for-money policy”

    I think Hockey, Cormann, Abbott has failed the “value-for-money”.

  • 1265
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    swamprat

    I will say that the vague hippyish Western milquetoast version of Buddhism is largely liberal in their view toward homosexuality and view it, at worst, as something beyond their control.

  • 1266
    rummel
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    swamprat
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:04 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel

    scared of science and gay stuff!!

    No, just Kezza2.

  • 1267
    swamprat
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    rummel

    lol!!!

    me too, a bit.

  • 1268
    sceptic
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    Threat from Clive..
    Sorry if already posted
    “To put it bluntly, the Chinese hate Clive Palmer,” said Barnett.

    But Palmer said he had at least one Chinese friend: “Well, Dio Wang, what is he? Is he Chinese? Does Dio Wang hate me? I don’t think so.”

    He said the “the truth about Mr Barnett” would soon be revealed. “Stay watching this channel.”

    What will Clive dump on Barnett? Bluff or real?

  • 1269
    poroti
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:10 pm | Permalink

    rummel
    :lol:

  • 1270
    swamprat
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

    absolutetwaddle

    I know buddhist countries seem, in general, less hung up about sexuality, e.g. Thailand, Japan but I admit i do not know much about them.

    I know Muslim suiciders use a bomb and try and kill others, buddhists self-immolate.

    that says something about religious attitudes.

  • 1271
    poroti
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

    sceptic

    The Emperor said the Chinese hate Clive. Probably some China-Clive deal being announced.

  • 1272
    silentmajority
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    Re MH370,
    What about the theory of a slowly smouldering front tyre causing smoke in the cockpit.

    The pilots shut down each system one by one trying to isolate the cause, not realising it is a burning tyre.
    Smoke increases, emergency oxygen runs out, all are overcome, plane flies on till fuel runs out.

    Hmmm?

  • 1273
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    No, just Kezza2.

    Don’t worry about Kezza. She thinks that if all men aren’t railing against all aspects – real or imagined – of misogny and/or sexism, all the time, then they deserve her utter contempt, which is doled out by the bucketload, free of charge.

    Leafing through her posts describing her childhood vicissitudes you can hardly blame her for the chip on the shoulder she carries around.

    The reality is that only about 0.000001% of people experience these kinds of setbacks in life, but it does us all good to be at least able to say when pondering Kezza, “There, but for the grace of God, go I.”

  • 1274
    sceptic
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    poroti

    Clive said truth about Barnett would soon be revealed…. Implies it’s something against Barnett

  • 1275
    slothy
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    “To put it bluntly, the Chinese hate Clive Palmer,” said Barnett.

    Wonder what they feel about Barnett? Indifference?

  • 1276
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    The pilots shut down each system one by one trying to isolate the cause, not realising it is a burning tyre.
    Smoke increases, emergency oxygen runs out, all are overcome, plane flies on till fuel runs out.

    I have abandoned Diego Garcis in favour of this brilliant theory.

  • 1277
    Everything
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 9:54 pm | PERMALINK
    Everything
    That wasn’t hard
    http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Dalai-Lama-Speaks-on-Gay-Sex-He-says-it-s-wrong-2836591.php
    Dali lama is as homophobic as the Pope

    The Dalai Lama is not the Buddha (except for Tibetan Buddhists, perhaps 1% of Buddhists????). I am not a Tibetan Buddhist, but I understand the Dalai Lama has apologised and withdrawn his comments hasn’t he?

    The Buddha outlined the teachings of Buddhism, there are many others who followed and said all kinds of things, including the whack job who did the Sarin attacks in Japan, but they are not Buddhist!

  • 1278
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    swamprat

    Gay people and transsexuals have a degree of acceptance in Thailand unthinkable in say, Pakistan, but they’re still widely discriminated against on religious/Buddhist grounds.

    Japan has a history of sexual acceptance that puts even modern Thailand to shame in some respects but these days it’s an extremely conservative and prudish society. Despite the prevalence of all types of pornography.

  • 1279
    swamprat
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    Hasn’t Clive said the same thing about Newman in Qld? Aren’t we still waiting?

  • 1280
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

    Everything

    I called the “no true Buddhist” defence! Jinx!

  • 1281
    kezza2
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:19 pm | Permalink

    absolutetwaddle

    I’m asking because the impression I gain from your posts is that you believe only women are capable of feeling true outrage at what happened in India.

    What I initially asked is why can’t we (Australia) impose sanctions on India because of the way women there are thought to be worthless (in so many words).

    William weighed in with the thought that it wasn’t illegal to rape and murder women in India, therefore it was understood we (Australia) couldn’t impose a sanction on those grounds.

    I was arguing for the negative.

    So many people think I play the victim because I have recounted that I sexually abused as a child.

    When I try to assert myself regarding the sexual exploitation of women (and men, and children) my past always comes up to slap me in the face, but that doesn’t mean I don’t have a valid opinion.

    And just because I’m not particularly articulate, that I may use a word that has ambiguous meaning, doesn’t mean that I’m trying to blame “men” in general for my circumstance or my point of view.

    I cannot change my past. And of course my point of view is coloured by what happened to me. Doesn’t mean I hate men. What I hate is the lack of insight of male behaviour that most men exhibit. Sorry if that offends, but you must know that it’s a fact.

  • 1282
    swamprat
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    Everything,

    are you a Buddhist?

    if so, how do you identify with a: rightwing anti-science, mates-capitalist, battery-farming, live animal-exporting, homophobic, anti-techno, anti-environment, unjust Liberal Party?

  • 1283
    zoomster
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    William weighed in with the thought that it wasn’t illegal to rape and murder women in India, therefore it was understood we (Australia) couldn’t impose a sanction on those grounds.

    No, he didn’t.

  • 1284
    roger bottomley
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Apologies to all women but I think Gina Rhinehart is a dreadful human being who should be placed in a chaff bag etc.

  • 1285
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    swamprat

    “are you a Buddhist?
    if so, how do you identify with a: rightwing anti-science, mates-capitalist, battery-farming, live animal-exporting, homophobic, anti-techno, anti-environment, unjust Liberal Party?”

    Either Mod Lib’s a tenuous Buddhist or a tenuous Liberal.

    You decide.

  • 1286
    kezza2
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

    I never got jokes when I was a kid.

    I was too busy trying to work out what was acceptable behaviour. What carried the least punishment.

    And I worked out that the worst thing was, was when you took the limelight away from a person who thought they were superior.

    But then I got used to appreciating the value of someone with such intellect as:

    The reality is that only about 0.000001% of people experience these kinds of setbacks in life, but it does us all good to be at least able to say when pondering Kezza, “There, but for the grace of God, go I.

    Hey, I got that. What a great put-down.

    Hope you’re all howling with laughter. And appreciate the wonderment of a BB post. Heil BB.

  • 1287
    DisplayName
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

    Which political party do you think is closer to leading Australia to spiritual enlightenment, Mod?

    :angel:

  • 1288
    Everything
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    swamprat
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:21 pm | PERMALINK
    Everything,

    are you a Buddhist?

    if so, how do you identify with a: rightwing anti-science, mates-capitalist, battery-farming, live animal-exporting, homophobic, anti-techno, anti-environment, unjust Liberal Party?

    I dont identify with them. However, as this is a caricature of the Liberal party, it doesn’t matter!
    ;)

  • 1289
    Everything
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    DisplayName
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:26 pm | PERMALINK
    Which political party do you think is closer to leading Australia to spiritual enlightenment, Mod?

    None of them.

  • 1290
    swamprat
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    absolutetwaddle

    I cannot decide.

    And I doubt Everything will reply to my post.

    It’s not the sort of question thing she/he responds to.

  • 1291
    DisplayName
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    ;)

  • 1292
    Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    Re MH370,
    What about the theory of a slowly smouldering front tyre causing smoke in the cockpit.

    They would most certainly advise control tower they had smoke, and were turning around and or looking for the nearest airport to land as you might if you had smoke in the cockpit.

  • 1293
    swamprat
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    oops she/he thought that was a charicture of the Liberal Party……

    I thought it was pretty accurate description of the Liberal Party.

    Obviously I have not seen and imbibed their latest lies.

  • 1294
    Everything
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    Buddhism, as in the actual original teaching rather than the populist stuff (like the Dalai Lama fantasy of the west), aint really for the masses so it wouldn’t do well in the political sphere!

  • 1295
    Raaraa
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    @1270 swamprat

    In Burma, it’s something of a different situation though.

  • 1296
    Everything
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    swamprat:

    Do you seriously believe that nearly 7 million of your fellow Australians are:
    “rightwing anti-science, mates-capitalist, battery-farming, live animal-exporting, homophobic, anti-techno, anti-environment, and unjust ”

    If you think that I am very sorry of you (a little Kezza2esque perhaps???? :) )
    If you don’t think that, then your original post was a caricature!

  • 1297
    zoomster
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    I was very fond of the Natural Law party, who believed that by having an army of flying monks (bouncing on trampolines) enough spiritual harmony would be generated to solve all of Australia’s problems.

  • 1298
    deblonay
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    The growing crisis in the Victorian Liberal Govt
    _____________________________________
    The ongoing sage of Napthine/Shaw/Smith et al…took a very serious turn today when Smith(the former./dumped Lib speaker) announced that he would support the minority report by the 4 Labor MPs on the House Priveledge Committee that the Indie Shaw(former Lib) has shown contempt of P’Ment

    Shaw forced Napthine some months ago to dummp Speaker Smith..and earned his undying hatred…now there are two Priv. Comm. reports…a 5 members majority Lib report saying Shaw “didn’t” commit contempt over his misuse of the infamous petrol allowance…as against the Labor minority report saying he did …

    BUT if Smith votes with Labor it will have a 44-43 vote to expell Shaw
    This would be a major crisis for Napthine and would mean a loss of the House control
    So what next
    He might be forced to get the Gov. to dissolve the P’Ment…the elections sre not due till Nov…but the Libs would hate an earlier election …and certainly NOT when Abbott/Hockey have annoyed so many.voters and the Lib brand is in tatters ..Napthine is in a terrible bind …and Smith wants revenge on Shaw who he hates with a passion

    I hope this isn’t to complicated to follow…but it has all the elements of Grand Opera(but lacking music)…lies/deception/hatred./passion..the works…but all a dire threat to the Vic Libs..and P’Ment mets again this week
    Great entertainment coming up after Smith’s threat tonight to Napthine
    watch this space as they say

  • 1299
    absolutetwaddle
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    Everything

    Only 7 million? If only!

  • 1300
    roger bottomley
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    SNIP: Watch it, Roger – The Management.

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