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Federal Politics 2013-

May 29, 2014

BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor

With nothing much doing in polldom this week, the momentum to Labor established by the post-budget results carries over into this week's BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading.

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With just about every pollster in the game taking the field last week to gauge budget reaction, there is a corresponding lull this week, the trusty weekly Essential Research being the only new data point nationally. Since this of itself doesn’t bear much weight in the model, the change since last week is more to do with pre-budget polling fading from the system than any recorded shift from last week to this. The trendlines instead move a little further along the trajectories set for them last week, with Labor up a further half a point on the primary vote, the Liberals down correspondingly, and a lift for the Greens boosting the two-party preferred shift to 0.8%.

There has been one substantial new poll result this weak, and that’s been a relatively mild result for the Coalition in Galaxy’s Queensland-only poll (which, interestingly enough, was exactly replicated in the small-sample Queensland component of this week’s Essential poll). However, the BludgerTrack model only uses state-level polling to determine the manner in which the national vote is apportioned between the states, so the effect of this result has been to soften Labor’s numbers in Queensland while fractionally improving them everywhere else. Since Queensland’s is the mother lode when it comes to marginal seats, the swing in the national result has yielded Labor little gain on the total seat projection, as gains of one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia have been counter-balanced by a loss of three in Queensland.

The other BludgerTrack news for the week is that the retrospective poll tracking charts have as promised been extended to the start of the Howard era, the results of which you can see on the sidebar. There is no new data this week on leadership ratings, so the results on the sidebar remain as they were a week ago.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1869 comments

1,869 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor

  1. 10th round and Floydd can baring move, and can’t land many blows, Clau is belting him with a left repeatedly. This is dreadful.

  2. Raaraa @ 1843

    Maybe they could stop doing drugs ?

    Or are you suggesting something similar to the Aboriginal Intervention policy if they fail a drug test.

  3. This comes under perverse stuff that I should have known but didn’t, but might have guessed if I’d thought about it, even though I hadn’t.

    There are seven states in the US that bar atheists from public office.

    The obvious suspects are on the list:

    Texas; Mississippi, South Carolina; Arkansas; Tennessee … But Pennsylvania and Maryland are a surprise.

  4. Just got back from fundraising event with family and friends. Earlier in the evening My nephew and brother in law were in transit travelling towards the city. Who happened to be travelling alongside them but Tony bloody Abbott!! He was busy reading some papers.

    Anyhoo night all

  5. Thanks, zoid.

    Usage rate of 2.6 versus 8.9% in the USA, and 22/8000 in NZ.

    Evidence of the upstanding character of welfare recipients, I would have thought. 😉

    [1834
    fredex

    One of the problems Abbott and the COALition has is that it has become obvious that they don’t like the Australian people generally.]

    They think we plebs are contemptible feckless scum, who need to be kicked into submission.

    In fairness, the feeling is increasingly mutual.

  6. 12 rounds and it is stopped. Ali give thanks to Allah for the win. Hmmm, that would go down well today, I think not. It probably didn’t go down too well then.

  7. [1849
    fredex

    From lefty e

    “The National Crime Commission found little evidence of abuse of children in Aboriginal communities in the NT.
    The 11,000 health checks revelaed nothing out of order. The abuse rates are estimated to be lower than most other areas of australia.

    Its was all a massive lie. The intervention was based on lies.”

    Deserves to be repeated.]

    Repeatedly.

    Truly shameful how whole communities, even a whole people, were so casually and viciously smeared, just to try to score a cheap political advantage.

    Real low point in our political history.