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BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor

With nothing much doing in polldom this week, the momentum to Labor established by the post-budget results carries over into this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading.

With just about every pollster in the game taking the field last week to gauge budget reaction, there is a corresponding lull this week, the trusty weekly Essential Research being the only new data point nationally. Since this of itself doesn’t bear much weight in the model, the change since last week is more to do with pre-budget polling fading from the system than any recorded shift from last week to this. The trendlines instead move a little further along the trajectories set for them last week, with Labor up a further half a point on the primary vote, the Liberals down correspondingly, and a lift for the Greens boosting the two-party preferred shift to 0.8%.

There has been one substantial new poll result this weak, and that’s been a relatively mild result for the Coalition in Galaxy’s Queensland-only poll (which, interestingly enough, was exactly replicated in the small-sample Queensland component of this week’s Essential poll). However, the BludgerTrack model only uses state-level polling to determine the manner in which the national vote is apportioned between the states, so the effect of this result has been to soften Labor’s numbers in Queensland while fractionally improving them everywhere else. Since Queensland’s is the mother lode when it comes to marginal seats, the swing in the national result has yielded Labor little gain on the total seat projection, as gains of one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia have been counter-balanced by a loss of three in Queensland.

The other BludgerTrack news for the week is that the retrospective poll tracking charts have as promised been extended to the start of the Howard era, the results of which you can see on the sidebar. There is no new data this week on leadership ratings, so the results on the sidebar remain as they were a week ago.

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  • 101
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:00 am | Permalink

    Puff

    Sensible. No evidence no conclusion.

  • 102
    Atticus
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:01 am | Permalink

    Re: Diog’s communication with MHS, I had one with Clive Palmer via text message.

    Yesterday morning I posted here an account of Palmer’s RN interview with Carabine, in which I opined with a satirical metaphor regarding Carabine’s negative attitude that PUP are like Somali Pirates holding budget hostage for allocation of staff to PUP and that Abbott is her Tom Hanks in “Captain Phillips”. Around noon, my OH thought it was amusing and emailed a copy to the PUP staff via their website contact section.

    An hour or so later we received a pleasant reply from PUP staffer, so we just thought it might give them a bit of a chuckle around the office. 3 hours later we received a very very brief text from Palmer sent from his iPhone expressing thanks for my comment.

    Whether this is Palmer’s go, I’ll leave for those with greater political savvy and insight like Diog and Bushfire Bill.

    No big deal, of course, as everyone in my family are rusted-on Labor voters with our 2nd preferences invariably going to the ever-saintly Greens, but PUP is not totally out of contention for #3 on the Senate ballot. ;)

  • 103
    kakuru
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    Sensible. No evidence no conclusion.

    That doesn’t provide any credence to any or all conspiracy theories. It’s a non sequitur.

  • 104
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    Clive Palmer all over Abbott on Sydney news.

    Saying wtte that Abbott is no Menzies no Frazer and no Howard.

  • 105
    BK
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:06 am | Permalink

    I can’t understand why Labor isn’t highlighting the removal of the quite substantial Seniors Supplement from July 1.

  • 106
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    Shorten does eat bananas. Such insightful lot this Canberra Gallery

  • 107
    sceptic
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    Atticus
    I still think Clive is more interested in political power than personal financial gain ( at this time), he is spending a huge amount of time in Canberra & enjoying the lime light.
    He can only benefit ( politically) from budget / political turmoil, being populist by nature he will use every opportunity to bring Abbott down.
    Clive is on a winner & would enjoy being taken seriously.

  • 108
    don
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    kakuru@99


    Then don’t ever consider being a research scientist.


    I am a research scientist. I deal with hard data, not wild-eyed speculation. The moment I start drawing conclusions based solely on intuition, I’ll hand back my PhD.

    And you don’t do experiments? You don’t make up theories based on not enough information, then try to verify them?

    If you don’t, I feel sorry for you.

    Kekulé, the discoverer of the structure of benzene, wasn’t afraid to dream:

    I turned my chair to the fire [after having worked on the problem for some time] and dozed. Again the atoms were gamboling before my eyes. This time the smaller groups kept modestly to the background. My mental eye, rendered more acute by repeated vision of this kind, could not distinguish larger structures, of manifold conformation; long rows, sometimes more closely fitted together; all twining and twisting in snakelike motion. But look! What was that? One of the snakes had seized hold of its own tail, and the form whirled mockingly before my eyes. As if by a flash of lighting I awoke… Let us learn to dream, gentlemen.

  • 109
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:14 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: Bill Shorten: If you’re an Australian family struggling to make ends meet, Labor is in your corner #Budget2014 #auspol”

  • 110
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:14 am | Permalink

    sceptic

    I think he also has concern for those in our community who are not wealthy.

    He is savage on Abbott and obviously does not like him.

  • 111
    sceptic
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:15 am | Permalink

    BK
    The Libs seem to be in such a mess creating their own problems it makes sense to leave them at it.
    When all self inflicted wounds cease Labor can bring up new issues for them…. Chinese water torture !

  • 112
    imacca
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:15 am | Permalink

    Problem with MH370 is that there are “plausible” theories out there, and little hard data.

    BB’s Diego Garcia shoot-down scenario is plausible, but the Yanks would have had to have been absolutely on the ball with collecting floating wreckage to get away with that.

    The other suggestion that it piggybacked under another flight and headed off to central Asia is also plausible, but means that the Inmarsat people got their track analysis wrong, which is possible.

    Now it seems there is doubt over the provenance of the pings, although i would not simply accept one newspaper report on that.

    Its entirely possible the pilot was a nasty nutbagger who decided to kill a planeload of people and leave deliberately confusing evidence to give everyone the sh$ts.

    The most odd thing for me is that as far as i am aware, no-one has found any wreckage or objects identifiable as from MH370 washed up anywhere.

    Will be interesting to see how our Govt handles this when the time comes to pull the plug on the search completely.

  • 113
    MTBW
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:15 am | Permalink

    guytaur

    That is just the message that Shorten needs to send.

  • 114
    leone
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    The Seniors Supplement was part of Howard’s middle-class welfare handouts. It only goes to retirees who are too asset-rich to qualify for even a part Age Pension. It’s no big deal to get rid of it, it’s worth $877.20 a year for singles and $660.40 each for couples.
    http://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/services/centrelink/seniors-supplement

    This cut has not been handled well by Hockey and Co, a lot of pensioners believe the Pension Supplement hs been taken away. So far it’s safe, although indexation for all the allowances it contains has been cut along with indexation for the pension and all the other payments linked to the same rate of pay.

  • 115
    imacca
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    I can’t understand why Labor isn’t highlighting the removal of the quite substantial Seniors Supplement from July 1.

    They are waiting till June 31st??

  • 116
    Atticus
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    He can only benefit ( politically) from budget / political turmoil, being populist by nature he will use every opportunity to bring Abbott down.
    Clive is on a winner & would enjoy being taken seriously.

    sceptic,

    You’re sooo not wrong, mate. Looks like he’s having a whale of a time (no pun intended).

  • 117
    guytaur
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    “@ABCNews24: Victorian MP Geoff Shaw has been found guilty of breaking parliament’s code of conduct. Next @bellfrances has the latest from #springst”

  • 118
    Tricot
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    BK@105

    And even more surprising is that the legion of oldies who normally would have got stuck into PMJG or PMKR are almost silent on the wholesale robbery of this assistance.

    The fact too that $$$$ is to come from assistance to utilities and the like – more in some States than others by the look of it – but who knows – is also something this previous very vocal cohort have gone silent on.

    In relation to the utilities support – which is quite substantial and actually worth more in $$$ terms than the Supplement, I just don’t think it has dawned on the oldies and will not do so until their next rate/power/water/electricity/car registration bill comes in for them to realise just how much of the “heavy lifting” has been shoved on to them.

    The devil in the detail as they say.

  • 119
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    As if the tragedy of 9/11 wasn’t horrific enough, we have conspiracy buffs cooking up wild and unsupported theories. Now we get the same boilerplate with the disappearance of MH370.

    I was waiting for a comment like this.

    It’s an absolutely text-book example of the knee-jerk reactions to anything that even approaches contradicting the “official version”.

    To argue that my hypothesis is absolute crap you have to argue that aircraft have never been hijacked before, passengers have never been held hostage before, and that commercial airliners have never been shot down by the military before.

    You also have to account for the complete and utter lack of any physical evidence, despite the most wide-ranging and concentrated search in aviation history.

    You the only have secondary evidence left – like pings and satellite data, and media say-so – much of which is on track to being discredited or written off.

    Finally you are left with a mad pilot who killed his passengers, or a catastrophic cockpit fire that one-by-one shut down communications and tracking equipment, chamged the course of the plane (at the exact point where radar coverage was handed over from Malaysia to Vietnam) but did not destroy the plane. In fact the plane flew perfectly well for another umpteen thousand kilometres before being destroyed without trace.

    I’m not saying conclusively that what I propose is what actually happened, but it shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand as “boilerplate” nonsense, especially compared to the “official” version which is gradually crumbling, brick by brick.

    It’s actually quite amazing that many persist in believing it, even thought almost all of its assumptions have been shown to be false.

  • 120
    Atticus
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    Geoff Shaw is not “contemptible”, as such:

    www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news
    VICTORIAN MP Geoff Shaw breached the MP code of conduct by misusing his parliamentary car but was not in contempt of parliament, an inquiry has found. ..

  • 121
    Tricot
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    leone@114

    The loss of the Supplement is one thing and you may dismiss the over $1300 a year taken from CHCC as mere small change. I doubt the many recipients are quite as dismissive as you seem to be.

    As I mentioned above, the real pain is the up to $2000+- in addition to the above that the oldies will be slugged when support for the utilities go.

    So, from your perspective the reduction of maybe $60 a week from a couples income is fair?

    Where do you suppose this cohort are going to find this extra?

    Of course they wont and will cut their expenditure even more.

    So much for sharing the burden.

    When it dawns on some that this $60 or so a week will be needed to pay for utilities and the like, and there will be a resulting decline in consumption expenditure elsewhere, the possibility of moving in a mild recession is one the cards.

  • 122
    kakuru
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    [And you don’t do experiments? You don’t make up theories based on not enough information, then try to verify them?

    I do experiments all the time. Based on the initial data, we then frame a hypothesis, and test this hypothesis using further data. We see how the hypothesis stacks up against the totality of data.

    Conspiracy theorists, on the other hand, cherry-pick data that suits them; or they claim that the absence of data is itself a product of the conspiracy (a bit of circular reasoning on their part). Conspiracy theorists are not scientists, any more than creationists or anti-vaxxers are.

  • 123
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    Oh dear, Business investment falls over 4% in March.

  • 124
    don
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    leone@114

    The Seniors Supplement was part of Howard’s middle-class welfare handouts. It only goes to retirees who are too asset-rich to qualify for even a part Age Pension. It’s no big deal to get rid of it, it’s worth $877.20 a year for singles and $660.40 each for couples.
    http://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/services/centrelink/seniors-supplement

    This cut has not been handled well by Hockey and Co, a lot of pensioners believe the Pension Supplement hs been taken away. So far it’s safe, although indexation for all the allowances it contains has been cut along with indexation for the pension and all the other payments linked to the same rate of pay.

    Thanks Leone, I thought it was the supplement that pensioners get.

    As you say, it was not sold well.

    In fact, I am surprised that they are taking it away from their heartland!

  • 125
    Atticus
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    Shaw’s finding reminds me to ask if anyone can clarify whether one PBer calling another PBer a “contemptible wretch” is allowable within the PB code of conduct?

    My interest is purely academic as semantic nuance is one of my sectors of study.

  • 126
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:35 am | Permalink

    I can’t understand why Labor isn’t highlighting the removal of the quite substantial Seniors Supplement from July 1.

    It will bite the affected very soon much better to wait for screams from the victims.

  • 127
    Roger Miller
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:35 am | Permalink

    http://theconversation.com/without-independent-artists-the-major-arts-bodies-will-die-26924

    I posted about this before. Independent artist to do the heavy lifting on budget cuts. But where will the next big thing for the major companies come from?

  • 128
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    Spending on buildings is -7.4%, equipment +2.8%, 12% down compared to a year ago.

    Good going Abbott.

  • 129
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:39 am | Permalink

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 1m

    Outlook for CAPEX weaker than Treasury assumed at Budget time… and that is saying something! soft numbers all round

  • 130
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:39 am | Permalink

    I do not hold with any theory, including the official one. Like finding out the fate of the crew of the Mary Celeste, some things we will never know.

    I think MH370 is another one of those.

  • 131
    zoomster
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:39 am | Permalink

    BK

    it was one of the questions during QT yesterday, and Andrews denied it was happening.

  • 132
    WarrenPeace
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    leone 114 Tthe supplement is part of the aged pension.
    There are different rates of Age Pension payments for single people and couples. Your rate also depends on your income, assets, and other circumstances.

    Family Situation
    Pension rates (per fortnight) Single Couple each Couple combined Couple each
    separated due to ill health
    Maximum basic rate $766.00 $577.40 $1,154.80 $766.00
    Maximum Pension Supplement $62.90 $47.40 $94.80 $62.90
    Clean Energy Supplement $13.90 $10.50 $21.00 $13.90
    TOTAL $842.80 $635.30 $1,270.60 $842.80

    http://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/services/centrelink/age-pension

  • 133
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    Retweeted by sortius
    Lord Finnigans 平大王 ‏@Thefinnigans 1m

    Having the Minerals Council lecturing us on how we all have to contribute is like Ivan Milat lecturing us how we must treat the HitchHikers

  • 134
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    I do experiments all the time. Based on the initial data, we then frame a hypothesis, and test this hypothesis using further data. We see how the hypothesis stacks up against the totality of data.

    There IS no data.

    Therefore informed speculation should be allowed to run free. All hypotheses start out with the question, “What if?”.

    No-one has supplied any reason for the “official story” other than that’s what’s in the newspapers.

    I’ve lost count of the number of times we’ve been told, soberly and seriously, that:

    (a) the satellite data is unimpeachable,

    (b) the pings were from a black box,

    (c) wreckage has been sighted (some of it with tailplanes and fuselage secions superimposed over some blob in the ocean to “prove” it’s from a plane).

    The satellite data is now under serious questioning, the pings are said to be from another search ship, and there was no wreckage.

    What Kakaru is arguing is that we should not dare to even hypothesize in the absence of any evidence.

    But there IS evidence. Diego Garcia Is right there in the middle of the ocean. It DOES have a suitable runway. It DOES possess covert facilities. Planes HAVE been shot down before. Planes HAVE been hijacked for ransom before. The pilot DID have data for his flight simulator software describing the approaches to Diego Garcia (a prohibited site, by the way, to commercial airliners). There WERE multiple reports of a low flying airliner in the Southern Maldives.

    That’s enough for an alternative hypothesis to the “wacky pilot” one, I would have thought.

    If we’re going to speculate, then let’s speculate out of the “official story” envelope, which has been shown to be a rather soggy mess after all, and certainly not as settled as the media would have had us believe.

    The media couldn’t have done a better disinformation job on the disappearance of MH-370 if it had tried real hard to.

    I’m not saying it WAS deliberate, but it does show what provenance false stories that ARE deliberately published can attain if they are repeated enough,e.g. the “Budget Emergency”, “She lied”, “Labor is addicted to debt for the fun of it”, “Everybody loves the Budget”, “You didn’t hear me right when you thought I made a promise”, “There will be no excuses, no surprises”, “Abbott’s greatest character trait is that he is fiercely loyal”, “Joe Hockey is a brilliant economist”, ditto Bronwyn Bishop on “The House Of Reps Practice”, “Barry O’Farrell didn’t know Nick Girolimo from a bar of soap”, “Repeal the Carbon Tax and all your troubles will be over”, and so on.

  • 135
    Atticus
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    In the same genre as posts by Roger Miller and tweet from Finns is this mornings article in ABC News online:

    [The head of Australia's biggest mining company has backed the federal budget, saying Australians must boost their productivity if they want to continue to enjoy a high standard of living.

    BHP Billiton chief executive Andrew Mackenzie told the ABC's The World program the Government is setting up a national conversation about competitiveness and productivity with this budget.

    "There are certain things that industry will give but I think things were shared around, and I think other things that they are talking about - the repeal of the MRRT [Mineral Resource Rent Tax] and the carbon tax – coupled with this budget are adding to competitiveness.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-28/budget-pain-is-evenly-shared-bhp-chief-says/5485306

  • 136
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    Malcolm Turnbull lies in Parliament, suggesting that Jason Clare is a coward:
    http://delimiter.com.au/2014/05/29/jason-clare-coward-claims-turnbull/

    Perhaps if the Minister for Communications actually does his job, instead of using the Department of Communications and NBNCo to be Myth Makers.

    Renai’s comment:

    “I have to say, this is pretty disappointing behaviour from Turnbull. All Clare did was point out that Turnbull had made an inaccurate statement to Federal Parliament. In response, Turnbull chose not to address Clare’s claims, but to instead accuse him of being a coward. Hardly the response you would expect of someone of Turnbull’s supposed stature. But then, experience has shown that the Minister tends to develop a bit of a potty mouth when he feels he is under pressure.”

  • 137
    DisplayName
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:50 am | Permalink

    I think the above is mostly an argument over what point during our observations we start to form hypotheses.

    BB

    There IS no data.
    ...
    informed speculation
    ..
    But there IS evidence

    …]
    You’re not making any sense. Are you trying to make some distinction between data, information and evidence?

  • 138
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    @Atticus/135

    We already know who is the Coalition Party backers, the Mining Magnets in this country.

    They need to get with the program, repealing the MRRT or Carbon “Tax” is not going to solve their problems.

  • 139
    kakuru
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

    BB:

    What Kakaru is arguing is that we should not dare to even hypothesize in the absence of any evidence.

    Hypothesise away. Maybe the plane was abducted by aliens. Or it entered a wormhole.

    The Diego Garcia “hypothesis” requires an elaborate conspiracy. It is not parsimonious. Not all hypotheses are equal.

    This reminds me of the “hypothesis” that aliens built the Egyptian pyramids – because there was no direct evidence of exactly how ancient humans could have built such immense and superbly engineered structures.

    But there IS evidence. Diego Garcia Is right there in the middle of the ocean. It DOES have a suitable runway. It DOES possess covert facilities. Planes HAVE been shot down before. Planes HAVE been hijacked for ransom before. The pilot DID have data for his flight simulator software describing the approaches to Diego Garcia (a prohibited site, by the way, to commercial airliners). There WERE multiple reports of a low flying airliner in the Southern Maldives.

    None of this is evidence. You have constructed a narrative based on a hodge-podge of cherry-picked precedents and dubious reports.

  • 140
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    Iron Ore is going down like a lead balloon (excuse the pun).

  • 141
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    Abbott says no to the student HECS death tax

    “This government is not going to change the existing rules, and the existing rules in respect of university debt ... is that they cease on decease,” the Prime Minister told ABC radio this morning.

  • 142
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    I know I started it, but William’s probaby sick of MH-370 hypothesising this morning.

    If there’s any take out from the way this story has developed then it is this:

    Don’t believe the media, even when they’re so sure they’re right they won’t admit any other interpretation of events without the use of words like “conspiracy”, “crazy”, “fringe”, “muddle-headed”, “bloggers” and “tinfoil hat”.

    Also don’t believe them when they quote shibboleths like, “When choosing between conspiracy and stuff-up, believe the stuff-up.” These are only words. They are not a law of nature or of human behaviour. They are simply a convenient way of dismissing an alternative argument without considering it on its merits. (see also: “Godwin’s Law” which is not a prohibition of “Nazi” referrals, merely an observation about them).

    Stuff-ups do happen, but so do conspiracies. Often both are mixed together: a stuff-up that causes the event in question, followed by a conspiracy to cover it up.

    The media have gone from reporting the fate of MH-370 as a virtual certainty, an inward spiral that could end with only one possible conclusion, to wit… involving the sea near Perth (convenient during a WA Senate by-election, and for Abbott to bignote himself in Beijing)… to shrugging their shoulders as they print retractions and reversals one-by-one, until there is virtually nothing left.

    These are the same people who routinely tell governments how to run a country successfully, even as their own companies and business models are going broke.

    They lecture us about “context”.

    They obsess over the trivial, because the trivial is easy to access and even easier to write up in 800 words of clever, savvy-sounding prose. The media likes being spoon-fed.

    That does not mean that we should persist in supporting their version of events, long after they themselves have abandoned it.

  • 143
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

    Kakuru

    None of this is evidence. You have constructed a narrative based on a hodge-podge of cherry-picked precedents and dubious reports.

    True. It’s not evidence that any of these occurred. It does make theories relying on such events more plausible than those based on alien intervention or wormholes because neither of these has ever been adequately documented.

  • 144
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    Hypothesise away. Maybe the plane was abducted by aliens. Or it entered a wormhole.

    There you go again, Kakaru.

    No-one here ever said the plane had been abducted by aliens. It’s a totally “straw man” argument you’re putting out there.

    At least I was quoting verified precedents and established facts.

    As far as I know there are no precedents for a pilot going mad and killing himself and his crew in the middle of nowhere.

    Or for one blowing up just enough to kill everyone and disable all communications equipment, but not to stop the plane from flying thousands of kilometres and ditching in just about the only place where it could never be found, without any wreckage at all being sighted.

  • 145
    daretotread
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

    Kakiru

    I have to disagree with you about the way REAL CREATIVE science is done – as opposed to routine cross checking and confirmation/quality control.

    The hypothesis need NOT be based on any data – just gut feel or a sense of something in a jigsaw that is missing. The experiments then proceed to try to prove or disprove the hypothesis. Of course the wilder the “gut feel” from actual data the harder it will be to get funding for expensive research but do not confuse funding protocols and scientific research protocols.

    Absence of data or inability to see a coherent rationale for a series of observations is a PERFECTLY valid reason for a theory.

    In the case of the missing Malaysian plane there are a number of unexplained events which do NOT fit into any of the “respectable theories.” This is a good case for investigating alternative theories. The aspects of the case that I find hard to understand are:

    1. Why not a SINGLE phone call from the passengers. Not one. This would be consistent with an explosion or sudden crash but we KNOW this did not happen. I can only think of a few explanations for this – sudden removal of oxygen, some sort of poison gas or some sort of electronic signal jamming. Even the first two do not fit because people would die or lose consciousness at different rates and at least one or two would have rung their loved ones with their dying breath.
    2. How is it that the plane turned sharply and started to head South. Once again I can only think of a couple of explanations – One of the pilots momentarily recovered consciousness and set a flight path for the nearest airport (but why no radio/phone contact) or someone remotely took over the flight.
    3. Why no wreckage. In these days of global satellites, this seems weird
    4. Why the comedy of errors in the searching.

  • 146
    leone
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 12:19 pm | Permalink

    Tricot
    I am on an age pension. I understand just how much Abbott and Hockey’s cuts will hurt but why should we subsidise those who re already well-off via the Seniors Supplement?

    Let’s sort a few things out because there is a lot of confusion about who gets or does not get what benefits and concessions.

    The Seniors Supplement does not go to age pensioners, it goes to those who are too well-off to qualify for even a very small part pension, so it goes to people who do not need an extra hand-out from the government. They can afford to pay for their ‘utilities’ themselves.

    Pensioners will lose state-provided benefits like subsidised rates, drivers licences, car rego, public transport fares and a discount on electricity bills – all depending on which state they live in – if the states will not pick up the slack from Abbott’s cuts to Commonwealth assistnce with concessions. This will really hurt a lot of pensioners IF it happens.

    Those on the Seniors Supplement don’t get these concessions anyway, or might only get some of them depending on the generosity of their state government.

    Utilities concessions are a small part of the whole thing. For pensioners who are home owners the loss of subsidised council rates is going to be the real killer.

  • 147
    leone
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

    Warren Peace
    I’m on an age pension, I know what I get and whaat I don’t get. The Seniors Supplement is NOT part of the pension.

    All the things you mention are part of the Pension Supplement which is not the same thing as the Seniors Supplement. The two names are not interchangeable and do not refer to the same payment.

    Here – compare and contrast.
    Pension Supplement
    http://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/services/centrelink/pension-supplement

    Seniors Supplemnent
    http://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/services/centrelink/seniors-supplement

  • 148
    Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

    The MH370 discussion is interesting.

    It is about possibilities, impossibilities and probabilities. The options around the searches are about eliminating the impossibles, keeping all possibles in the frame, and building on the probables.

    In this case, many possibilities cannot be eliminated at all. This ensures that there is a wide scope for creativity: if it is possible, it might have happened. Unfortunately there is often a next jump in which people try to turn their pet possibility into some sort of probability.

    We have eyewitness reports that are mutually irreconcilable. The plane could not possibly be crashing off the south-east coast off Vietnam AND be being sighted near Indonesian and/or the Maldives at much the same time.

    We also have an eyewitness report which is at odds about what is known of the radar records. The plane could not have crossed either Vietnam, or been within a few hundred kilometres off the south-east coast of Vietnam, without Vietnamese radar noticing. These guys are toey ATM because of the aggressive actions of a certain very big country immediately to their north. And they are not hapless third world techos. They cut their radar teeth downing thousands of US aircraft during the Vietnam War.

    Maybe they just shot this one down to keep their eye in? After all, it is possible is it not?

    The plane was tracked on Malaysian radar turning back and crossing the Malay Peninsula. The slackarses on radar watch couldn’t be bothered doing anything about what was obviously a major anomaly on their screens.

    The plane might thereafter have turned back again, eluding both Malaysian and Vietnamese radar, before crashing near the Vung Tau sighting. This is possible but not probable. It might have flown very low to avoid radar but (a) the Vung Tau eyewitness reckons it was high in the sky, and (b) that neck of the woods is absolutely infested with fishing boats most nights (on clear nights, it looks as if the starry sky is unpside down). There should, therefore, most probably have been dozens of independent sightings.

    This does not mean that all the eyewitness accounts are wrong. It does mean that directing a multi-million dollar search solely on the basis of what people say they think and believe they saw is an iffy proposition.

    On the pings, I believe I posted at the time that it was possible that the various navies and airforces in the location would be more interested in playing high tech silly buggers than anything else. The pings could have been part of this. I don’t know.

    I posted that there was so much human debris out there (with statistics and links) that sorting the floating wheat from the chaff would be difficult. The probability was rendered even lower because aeroplane bits tend to be whitish and there was a lot of white water at the time.

    In relation to the Immersat tracks, I believed at the time that this was technically correct. I now believe that this is contestable, at the very least, and I look forward to the outcomes of Houston’s root and branch re-evaluation of all the technical detail.

    In terms of the possibility that the US shot it down near Diego Garcia, I understand that Deblonay knows that this was done by Obama to embarass Putin and drive him into the arms of Xi.

    I stated then that I believed that if a large passenger plane approached Diego Garcia and did not respond to communications from Diego Garcia, the US would be quite prepared to shoot it down as SOP. They would, in that case, have no particular reason either to conspire with the 5,000 US personnel on Diego Garcia to keep it quiet, or to succeed in compltely suppressing the truth had they done so. Therefore, this scenario is possible but not all that probable.

    There are numerous other possible scenarios.

    Abbott’s interevention was all about ‘look at moi’ and, in terms of sorting impossibilities, possibilities and probabilities can safely be ignored. As usual with Abbott, he leaves us none the wiser.

  • 149
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

    The head of Australia’s biggest mining company has backed the federal budget, saying Australians must boost their productivity if they want to continue to enjoy a high standard of living.

    the way Liberals etc rave about increases productivity a person would think we hadn’t had over 20 years of continuous growth

  • 150
    zoidlord
    Posted Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 12:29 pm | Permalink

    Those on DSP also get Pension Supplement.

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