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Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition in NSW

A new poll of state voting intention suggests the NSW Coalition remains placed to limp to a second term, although quite a number of its MPs should probably start looking for work.

Today’s Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll of state voting intention in New South Wales, conducted from Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 815. It shows the beleaguered Coalition government with its head above water on 53% of two-party preferred, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 11% for the Greens. However, new Premier Mike Baird holds a commanding 43-11 lead over John Robertson as preferred premier, which you may attribute to a honeymoon effect or the latter’s unsaleability according to taste. Remarkably, only 46% of respondents could name Baird as the state’s Premier, with 9% thinking Barry O’Farrell still had the job, 3% naming someone else, and 42% being what the Telegraph politely describes as “uncommitted”. Only 27% of respondents believed Barry O’Farrell’s claim that his false testimony to the Independent Commission Against Corruption over the $3000 wine bottle he received was the result of a “massive memory fail”, 58% believing he lied under oath. Tellingly, 47% now believe there has been no change in the level of corruption under the new government, with 25% believing things were worse under Labor and 17% thinking things worse now.

UPDATE: Essential Research has published monthly results of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland going back as far as November. The latest result is well in line with Galaxy, having the Coalition on 42% (down four on a month ago), Labor on 38% (up two) and the Greens on 9% (up one). This has inspired me to knock together poll trend charts based on scattered polling from Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy and Essential. The result is less smooth than perhaps poll smoothing should be, with the two quirks both being down to results from Nielsen: a poll in late February showing Labor slightly ahead, being the only such result in the last six years, and at the other extreme a 67-33 result in favour of the Coalition in March 2013, which was conducted when the damage to Labor from the Eddie Obeid affair was at its peak.

24
  • 1
    outside left
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 2:28 pm | Permalink

    iCACTUS .

  • 2
    zoidlord
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    ICACT’D UP.

  • 3
    poroti
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    Re 11% for Robertson . Not to worry, Helen Clark got as low as 2% before becoming PM. Pretty much margin of error support.

  • 4
    meher baba
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 2:44 pm | Permalink

    I note that on this thread and on the Bludgertrack thread some posters are expressing happiness at the (in my view, very slim) prospects of a Labor victory at the next NSW election.

    These posters must be the most rusted-on of rusted-on Labor supporters. By any assessment, NSW Labor under John Robertson isn’t within a bull’s roar of being ready to return to government. Sure, some Libs have done some dodgy stuff. But there is a rottenness at the core of NSW Labor (affecting all factions, although the Right have been the worst hit). This rottenness has hardly even been papered over, let alone addressed root and branch as it needs to be.

  • 5
    Goosh Goosh
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 2:44 pm | Permalink

    Honestly I doubt Baird will have many problems getting back in. It is always likely that a fair few natrually Labor leaning seats that fell to the Coalition in 2011 will return to the Labor fold.

  • 6
    shellbell
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

    NSW could feel proud if they produced a dynamic duo like Abbott and Robertson

  • 7
    outside left
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

    MB, make that pronouncement after the state conference. Have you seen the list of preselections? Pretty good, methinks

  • 8
    meher baba
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

    outside left@7: I would certainly hope there is some quality new blood coming in to the parliamentary party. The problem is more about some of the ones who are already there: particularly the leader who – even though he presents reasonably well – is far too closely tied to the mob to be credible in the role of new broom.

  • 9
    Steve777
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    Rather remarkable that 42% of respondents apparently had no idea who the Premier of NSW was and only 46% knew the right answer. Presumably even fewer know who the leader of the NSW Opposition is. John Robertson seems to be a decent enough man, but he is practically invisible and making very little impact.

    So Mike Baird looks pretty certain to get back in comfortably with 10 months to go, but the numbers in Legislative Assembly should be much more balanced, with Labor a realistic chance in 2019.

  • 10
    mikehilliard
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

    Who is John Robertson?

  • 11
    Everything
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

    Great result for Baird….even if people don’t know who they are supporting!

    It would take the ALP to about 35-40 seats of the 93 seats….not bad, except for the fact that they appear to need a >18% swing (or 54% TPP) to win (i.e. 47% is about 7% off).

  • 12
    Everything
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/04/new-nsw-electoral-pendulum.html

  • 13
    lefty e
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

    and 42% being what the Telegraph politely describes as “uncommitted”

    LOL. I like that.

    2 in 5 have no freakin idea who the Premier is, which when added those believing its still BOF, makes a narrow majority for “who knew?”.

  • 14
    Graeme
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    Labor has no net benefit on preferences? Even though the split is 11:9 Greens to Others?

    Is this an artefact of OPV, NSW Labor being stenchy, or a high conservative bias amongst ‘Others’ (shooters, Nile biblical types)?

  • 15
    Henry
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    Had to laugh at The Telecraps headline for this “Grin and Baird it”.
    Somehow they spun this shocking result for the libs in NSW as a positive for Baird.
    53-47 has the ALP within striking distance of retaining govt at the next election.
    They probably won’t but that they are even close is a shocking indictment on a very poor govt.

  • 16
    Raaraa
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    I wonder… with the PUP not registered as an official party in NSW, how will this play with the polling?

  • 17
    Raaraa
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    @16 at least not in time for the coming election.

  • 18
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Seems that not knowing who the Premier is is a common problem in NSW; only 59% knew B O’F was Premier after he’d been there about 18 months.

    53:47 is really not that flash given that it could be boosted by a honeymoon effect for the new Premier.

  • 19
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Friday, May 30, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Essential state polling (Coalition first)

    NSW 51-49 (-3 since March)
    Qld 53-47 (Level)
    Vic 47-53 (-3 since March)

    Graphic:

    http://essentialmedia.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EMC_StatePoll_May30.pdf

    But there’s more; monthly figures too:

    http://essentialvision.com.au/state-voting-intention-nsw-2
    http://essentialvision.com.au/state-voting-intention-queensland-2
    http://essentialvision.com.au/state-voting-intention-victoria-2

    Quite some volatility there by ER standards!

  • 20
    The Lorax
    Posted Saturday, May 31, 2014 at 7:29 am | Permalink

    Can someone please explain why Linda Burney isn’t leader in NSW?

  • 21
    outside left
    Posted Saturday, May 31, 2014 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    @20, +1. I had the pleasure of meeting Linda, and listening to her speech at the campaign launch for Fiona Phillips.

  • 22
    Bugler
    Posted Saturday, May 31, 2014 at 1:55 pm | Permalink

    KB,

    Seems that not knowing who the Premier is is a common problem in NSW; only 59% knew B O’F was Premier after he’d been there about 18 months.

    I assume that has something to do with the length of any given Premiers’ tenure in recent history. The Victorian Liberal premiers had the pleasure of being targets in industrial disputes, with Napthine’s face and name soon replacing Baillieu’s (with the motto “different leader, same Government, same cuts”) on ambulances, fire stations, schools, hospitals and light poles and protests on news bulletins across the state (not that I can think of any similar “do you know who the Premier is” questions for Victoria)

  • 23
    Edward Boyce
    Posted Saturday, May 31, 2014 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    @11, @12

    There was a redistribution for NSW last year. On the new boundaries, there would be a hung parliament with a 14.7% uniform swing, and a Labor majority with a 19.0% uniform swing (assuming the independents and Greens keep their 4 seats).

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/10/201-new-south-wales-electoral-pendulum.html#more

  • 24
    max
    Posted Sunday, June 1, 2014 at 2:15 pm | Permalink

    @23 fascinating – so based on Antony’s pendulum, for the ALP 18 + Miranda + 22 seats yielded by a 12.2% swing [assuming 48% 2PP - average of Essential + Galaxy] – produces 41 seats – add in 5 independents for 46 and the LNP at 47 are looking at a one-seat majority. There are a couple of extra LNP seats – Mulgoa and Parramatta – sitting right on the cusp. It’s a very rough and ready analysis, and I’d actually expect the LNP to win relatively comfortably. Still it’s pointer – the conservative hegemony in Australian politics seems to be evaporating pretty quickly.

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