A new poll of state voting intention suggests the NSW Coalition remains placed to limp to a second term, although quite a number of its MPs should probably start looking for work.
Today’s Daily Telegraph has a Galaxy poll of state voting intention in New South Wales, conducted from Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 815. It shows the beleaguered Coalition government with its head above water on 53% of two-party preferred, from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 11% for the Greens. However, new Premier Mike Baird holds a commanding 43-11 lead over John Robertson as preferred premier, which you may attribute to a honeymoon effect or the latter’s unsaleability according to taste. Remarkably, only 46% of respondents could name Baird as the state’s Premier, with 9% thinking Barry O’Farrell still had the job, 3% naming someone else, and 42% being what the Telegraph politely describes as “uncommitted”. Only 27% of respondents believed Barry O’Farrell’s claim that his false testimony to the Independent Commission Against Corruption over the $3000 wine bottle he received was the result of a “massive memory fail”, 58% believing he lied under oath. Tellingly, 47% now believe there has been no change in the level of corruption under the new government, with 25% believing things were worse under Labor and 17% thinking things worse now.
UPDATE: Essential Research has published monthly results of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland going back as far as November. The latest result is well in line with Galaxy, having the Coalition on 42% (down four on a month ago), Labor on 38% (up two) and the Greens on 9% (up one). This has inspired me to knock together poll trend charts based on scattered polling from Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy and Essential. The result is less smooth than perhaps poll smoothing should be, with the two quirks both being down to results from Nielsen: a poll in late February showing Labor slightly ahead, being the only such result in the last six years, and at the other extreme a 67-33 result in favour of the Coalition in March 2013, which was conducted when the damage to Labor from the Eddie Obeid affair was at its peak.