With less than six months to go until Victoria’s state election, new results from Essential Research confirm the general picture elsewhere in showing the Labor opposition with a modest lead.
An unloading of state voting intention data from Essential Research (see below for details from Queensland and New South Wales) has Labor leading in Victoria by 53-47 on May’s figures, a result well in line with the trend of polling elsewhere. Labor is at 40% on the primary vote compared with 38% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, and has consistently been level with or slightly ahead of the Coalition on the monthly results going back to November. Below are poll trend charts for the current term encompassing results from Newspoll, Nielsen, ReachTEL, Galaxy and Essential Research.
William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.
The Poll Bludger, who is known to his mother as William Bowe, can be contacted at: pollbludger-at-bigpond.com.
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