A release of state polling data from Essential Research confirms the thrust of the recent Galaxy result in showing that Campbell Newman's government retains a moderate lead, with Palmer United polling in double figures.
Essential Research has published monthly results of state voting intention for Queensland as well as Victoria (see above) and New South Wales (see below). The latest result from Essential Research is slightly worse for the government than Galaxy’s recent 55-45, showing the Liberal National Party leading 53-47 from primary votes of 41% for the LNP, 36% for Labor, 12% for Palmer United and 4% for the Greens. This follows an incongruously good result for Labor in the previous month’s reading, in which Labor led 52-48. I have gone to the effort of producing a poll trend chart for the current term based on various results around the place from Newspoll, ReachTEL, Galaxy and Essential. I have not bothered with a two-party preferred chart, as the availability of data for minor parties is spotty which is unfortunate, given the ongoing growth of the Palmer United factor and the behaviour of their preferences an unknown quantity. Grey on the chart below indicates the combined vote for everyone other than the LNP, Labor and the Greens.
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.