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Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll since the budget finds effectively no change from the first on voting intention, although personal ratings for both leaders have moderated after big shifts last time.

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Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.

Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.

In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.

As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.

Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1759 comments

1,759 thoughts on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

  1. gloryconsequence

    Last Newspoll was 55-45? Or was that Nielsen?

  2. roger bottomley

    Holding the line. Handy buffer for Labor.

  3. Everything

    the narrowing?

  4. imacca

    [ I never imbibed. ]

    Mod, given the level of ridiculous bollocks you post here on any number of issues i’ll take that as an Abbott style truth.

  5. shellbell

    Among the wanky advertising executives on Gruen Transfer, Dean reigned supreme

  6. BK

    Whack!!! There goes Dean to the floor courtesy of Kraus. “What do your CC models predict?”

  7. rummel

    I will be getting solar panels next year

  8. J341983

    I think it’s a decimal issue … 54.4% = 54% and 54.6%= 55%

  9. roger bottomley

    GC I think it was 55-45.

  10. Boerwar

    Turnbull persistently takes the debate down a byway. She talks the truth. It sounds reasonable. But she drags the debate down a conceptual dead end.

  11. Everything

    [imacca
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:19 pm | PERMALINK
    I never imbibed.

    Mod, given the level of ridiculous bollocks you post here]

    Huh?

    Everything Everything posts is gold.

  12. Raaraa

    I’m just glad Kraus is able to speak above Benardi and Dean.

  13. zoidlord

    @rummel/7

    Bit late, my parents made the investment ages ago, and it’s paying dividends (especially if we going to have hot summer).

  14. imacca

    Pity QANDA decided to have two loud, obnoxious and stupid right wingers on tonight. Actually i would have rather they had Bernardi, and a smartish right winger for contrast.

  15. Boerwar

    E getting back to E’s favourite topic.

  16. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/11

    No, it’s mud.

  17. William Bowe

    Yes, the last Newspoll was 55-45.

  18. J341983

    Hilarious to watch Bernardi flinch when he thought Krauss was going to touch him.

  19. Dee

    Liberal mole!

    She’s gonna make me puke.

  20. Henry

    Catherine King has been quite poor on QandA.
    Too easily put off her point, has barely got a word in.
    In this format you just have to barrel over the top of the shriekers.

  21. poroti

    Is that Gina the Hutt in disguise asking the question ?

  22. BK

    Shouldn’t this old girl’s hair have had a BLUE rinse!

  23. rummel

    Zoidlord

    Have to get the house insulated properly first. We have pick bats in the roof, some still in the bag lol.

  24. roger bottomley

    I understand this poll might be one of the first since the election testing popularity of Coalition leaders.

  25. Dee

    Scowling Mrs Mac!

  26. Boerwar

    The last questioner sort of looked like a Greens gone wrong.

  27. zoidlord

    @rummel/23

    That is true!

  28. Darn

    I just love that 36 pv for the Libs. They’re still in the toilet where they belong.

  29. poroti

    J341983
    [
    Hilarious to watch Bernardi flinch when he thought Krauss was going to touch him]
    Krauss must be……
    a) A scientist
    b) Gay
    c) Atheist

  30. The Lorax

    Why did Jones let Dean speak again?!?

  31. Boerwar

    d) The Devil

  32. Swing Required

    A Newspoll 54/46 means the true situation is 55/45 minimum.

  33. gloryconsequence

    King hasn’t been poor, she’s just reasonably respectful of other people, hence why she can’t maintain a point.

  34. Boerwar

    Dean is repeating faithfully the Coalition talking points in today’s QT.

  35. Henry

    Tory rent a crowd cheering wildly tonight…

  36. Dee

    Dean is a condescending arsehole!

  37. confessions

    Qanda is simply a shoutfest tonight.

    Why bother?

  38. BK

    It is sickening watchng Dean and Bernardi.
    And Jones has been an abject failure in managing them.

  39. poroti

    A Godwin 😆 😆

  40. confessions

    [King hasn’t been poor, she’s just reasonably respectful of other people, hence why she can’t maintain a point.]

    The Qanda format doesn’t suit respectful.

  41. Henry

    Being respectful doesn’t work with shrieking tories glory.
    You just gotta barrel over the top of them like they do.
    No point playing nice with these guys.

  42. poroti

    Gina is baaaaack

  43. Dee

    Scowling Mrs Mac back!

  44. BK

    How come the Old Libs ranga gets three goes?

  45. Everything

    There are usually 3 left QandAs to 1 or 2 right QandAs.

    You guys don’t seem to like it the other way around much!

  46. Boerwar

    Yep. She’s escaped from the bottom of the garden.

  47. imacca

    [ King hasn’t been poor, she’s just reasonably respectful of other people, ]

    Agreed. Bernardi and Dean have been remarkably rude. Wonder if Poodle daH Pyne will berate them later for being ungentlemanly??

  48. leftwingpinko

    Rowan Dean is worse than Corey Bernardi. What a terrible partisan hack he is.

  49. J341983

    @45 – Bernardi and Dean qualify for 4 righties on their own.

  50. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/45

    When you ignore putting an economist on (one with decent reputation), one that doesn’t thrash our economy, then those who speak about the Economy in a bad way, then yes.