tip off

Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll since the budget finds effectively no change from the first on voting intention, although personal ratings for both leaders have moderated after big shifts last time.

Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.

Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.

In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.

As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.

Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.

1759
  • 651
    teh_drewski
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    There was a comment a little earlier about Florida’s drug testing of welfare recipients – my apologies, I’ve lost the post itself.

    The $178m cost cited is not the cost of the testing – it’s the cost of Florida’s welfare budget (and is largely comprised of payments to Florida’s huge seniors population, who weren’t subject to testing). The actual cost of the program was $25 per test, paid by the recipient, and reimburseable only in the event that the test was negative.

    The program made no savings – a little over 2% did not receive their benefits as a result of failed tests, but the cost of repaying the 98% of test takers who required refunds overwhelmed the amount not paid to drug users. The program was halted after court action, but not before racking up $50k in losses footed by Florida’s taxpayers.

    Even if there are some welfare recipients taking drugs who aren’t clever enough to dodge any testing regime, it’s exceptionally unlikely that any savings generated by halting their payments will even pay for the cost of testing everyone else, let alone return money to the budget.

  • 652
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

    dave

    If real risk remains steady wouldn’t a lack of volatility be a sign that people are reading risk right?

    Or is there something about volatility per se that tells you that people are not reading risk right?

  • 653
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:28 pm | Permalink

    BW

    Why might a lack of volatility signal something important?

    Well, first, it’s simply that a similar absence of volatility was seen in the lead up to the GFC. This is like the old (and still very useful) method predicting tomorrow’s weather by looking back through the charts to find a pattern that is close to today’s, and looking at what happened the next day – it’s “model-free”, so to speak.

    Second, start by thinking of the stock market as an information process, which fuses inconsistent beliefs about values into one aggregate “average” price signal. Volatility is then caused by different market participants changing their beliefs on the expected returns to stocks.

    Since this is not a smooth or consistent process, the mismatches in different participants’ beliefs produce price fluctuations. This is actually a good thing, because it indicates that a diversity of opinions is being used to discover the price of a stock, and the wisdom of the crowds is very hard to better…

    Except when everyone starts to think the same way. This tends to indicate something is going systematically wrong, such as the wide-spread under-pricing of risk or under-weighting of low-probability high-risk outcomes, both of which occurred in the lead up to the GFC and, anecdotally, are occurring now.

    Furthermore, this type of risk under-pricing is to be expected when interest rates are kept low (as in, 0% is lower than most economists think the market clearing rate for loans should be), because of the moral hazard that this opens up for investors, eg. see my link to SMSF investments in residential housing above.

  • 654
    citizen
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:28 pm | Permalink

    Here’s some depressing news…

    Jubilant Alan Jones signs new 22-year contract with ratings juggernaut 2GB

    4 HOURS AGO JUNE 03, 2014 12:42PM

    Alan Jones announces new 22-year contract

    Breakfast king guaranteed an estimated base salary of $4.5m

    2GB clocks up 80th consecutive ratings survey win

    http://www.news.com.au/national/jubilant-alan-jones-signs-new-22year-contract-with-ratings-juggernaut-2gb/story-fncynjr2-1226941754469

  • 655
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    BK
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar
    Qld has also announced that many seniors’ and pensioners’ concessions will be cut by an as yet unannounced amount as a direct consequence of the federal budget.

    I had thought that the premiers had gone quiet because they were talking hard stuff with the Feds and that a deal was on. I implied as much several times.

    Look like I was completely wRONg on that one.

    This will hurt Abbott, IMHO.

  • 656
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    Mike Runt on Agenda, saying no CT in US, except Obama says States can introduce a Carbon Tax if they want.

    California already has a cap-and-trade scheme.

  • 657
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

    LU
    I had missed your post. Thanks.

    So I take it that the lack of volatility in current circumstances means that a big swag of punters, serious global punters at that, have priced risk incorrectly and that that is, in the nature of risk stats, almost certain to end badly.

  • 658
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    c
    They should just put 2GB in a chaff bag and thow it in the ocean.

  • 659
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:33 pm | Permalink

    It’s fitting that Abbott should use the climate change mitigation methods of the US to bolster his argument, they have none.

  • 660
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

    Jubilant Alan Jones signs new 22-year contract with ratings juggernaut 2GB

    What happens if he dies before the end of the contract period? Is his estate paid out the balance of his contract?

    On a day of bizarro things happening, this just adds to the weirdness of it all.

  • 661
    Simon Katich
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

    absolutetwaddle

    did you get your answer to 647?

  • 662
    dave
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

    BW – the US S&P 500 VIX

    16 to about 20 is normally regarded as low.

    Currently its just under 12.

    30 or above is regarded as high.

    During the GFC it got up to 46.

    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX

    Its been low for sometime and going lower.

  • 663
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    mikehilliard

    The problem is Abbott calls them Direct Action when they are patently not.

  • 664
    citizen
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    BIG international drug companies, not the Australian economy, will reap the profits from the $20 billion medical research fund financed by the new fee on GP visits, experts warn.

    Health Minister Peter Dutton has raised the ire of researchers by ruling out using money from the $20 billion medical research fund to commercialise Australian medical breakthroughs.

    The comments are a blow for local drug manufacturers and researchers who lament that this means Australian medical breakthroughs like the cervical cancer vaccine will developed by big international drug companies with little of the profit being kept here.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/sienna-cancer-diagnostics-and-benitec-attack-proposed-use-of-governments-20-billion-medical-research-fund/story-fn84fgcm-1226941785144

  • 665
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    So I take it that the lack of volatility in current circumstances means that a big swag of punters, serious global punters at that, have priced risk incorrectly and that that is, in the nature of risk stats, almost certain to end badly.

    Almost: Incorrect but diverse beliefs are basically the markets’ bread and butter – in that everyone is wrong to some degree and no-one knows for sure what is going to happen.

    The one thing markets don’t handle well is incorrect and highly correlated beliefs. The LTCM failure was a highly ironic example of it, where LTCM became the correlating signal that caused it’s own demise.

    And what dave said.

  • 666
    citizen
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:34 pm | PERMALINK
    Jubilant Alan Jones signs new 22-year contract with ratings juggernaut 2GB

    What happens if he dies before the end of the contract period? Is his estate paid out the balance of his contract?

    If he dies, 2GB will probably just do replays of Jones. So many of his listeners seem to live in a time warp removed from reality that they will probably never notice the difference.

  • 667
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

    k

    Yes, but that is not a carbon tax. The Coalition argument that Obama is doing what they are doing is, nevertheless, a BIG LIE at many, many levels.

    The neatest example is this.

    Abbott has a carbon tax even if he does not want it because he can’t get abolition through the Senate. This does not mean that Obama can point to Abbott and imply that Abbott supports a carbon tax. Not that Obama would bother.

    Obama has a menu of direct action options because he can’t get what he wants through the Senate either. This does not mean that Abbott can imply that Obama supports a direct action plan as his PREFERRED option.

    But that is the Big Lie that Abbott is selling.

  • 668
    Dee
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

    Australia's biggest companies are stepping up their campaign against weekend penalty rates.

    The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry says scaling back penalty rates would encourage more businesses to open on weekends and help stimulate the economy.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-03/business-groups-step-up-campaign-to-cut-sunday-penalties/5497696

  • 669
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

    LU
    Thanks. What is LTCM?

  • 670
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    Lose the Cash, man!

  • 671
    slothy
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    kakuru @ 656

    California already has a cap-and-trade scheme.

    So do 9 of the north eastern states in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, together with 3 Canadian provinces participating as observers.

  • 672
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    So, Alan Jones, looking at 2035, 59+22 = 81.

    It is going to be a close race between the Arctic being ice-free, and 2GB being dross-free.

  • 673
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

    Long-Term Capital Management – a hedge fund that used fancy stats to fark itself and its many, many investors.

    From Wikipedia: “initially successful with annualized return of over 21% (after fees) in its first year, 41% in the second year and 43% in the third year, in 1998 it lost $4.6 billion in less than four months… with the fund liquidating and dissolving in early 2000.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

  • 674
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

    ru,

    Latest polls have the Qld govt and Labor 53/47. Any chance this budget will push Campbell over the edge?

  • 675
    Libertarian Unionist
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

    Lose the Cash, man!

    Lose their Cash, man!

  • 676
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Alan Jones is 73 years old

  • 677
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

    Well, the Vix. Something else to worry about. Will this ever end?

  • 678
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:45 pm | Permalink

    If he dies, 2GB will probably just do replays of Jones. So many of his listeners seem to live in a time warp removed from reality that they will probably never notice the difference.

    Too funny. I think when John Laws retired the first time they played replays of his shows. I never understood why when they’d made such a song and dance over his retirement!

  • 679
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    v

    Oh. Thanks. 73+22 = 95

  • 680
    ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Obama has regulated a 30% cut in emissions from Power Stations. This is a cap, the States can trade however they like.

  • 681
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    poroti

    I was referring to the not so distant past, haven’t had a look at Obama’s proposal, is it an ETS?

    http://www.climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa

    BTW have a look at this graph with predicted CO2 emissions rise from DA.

    http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia.html

  • 682
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    2GB will never be dross-free, regardless of what happens with Arctic ice, or Alan Jones.

  • 683
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 11m

    Fun fact. Tim Nicholls has added $18 billion to general gov debt since elected. Proceeds of privatisation won’t even pay that off #qldpol

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 9m

    Another fun fact. The last 3 years of the Qld ALP gov added $19.3 billion in debt compared to the LNPs $18.1 billion #qldpol

  • 684
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    LU
    I wish had had a piece of the LTCM action while the returns were too good to be true, and had then bailed just before the inevitable.

  • 685
    sohar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    Good ad about Medicare changes.

    https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/medicare/medicare-tvc-family/can-you-help-fund-our-strategic-new-ad-campaign?t=dXNlcmlkPTc4NjM4MCxlbWFpbGlkPTQ3MTc=

  • 686
    Steve777
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

    Alan Jones is 73 years old, so unless he’s as resiliant as Alistaire Cooke (Letter from America), he is unlikely to see it through.

    So 2GB then broadcasts replays? Listeners in 2036 would be asking ‘Who’s Juliar?’.

  • 687
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

    z
    I don’t understand that either. How did Newman manage to add that much new debt?

  • 688
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    The Greens Labor Government handed down the ACT budget today. Our deficits will continue.

    Our home rates just got jacked up by 10%, as predicted by yrs trly because homeowners are all that is left for them to screw.

    And they still want to build the genuine thing – a real light rail train wreck.

  • 689
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

    mikehilliard

    It is his preferred option but it is up to the states. From @626

    President Obama’s new plan to fight climate change depends heavily on states’ devising individual approaches to meeting goals set in the nation’s capital.....................................In order to comply with the new national rule, states can, among other actions, shut down coal plants, install wind and solar power and energy-efficiency technology, or join the California or Northeastern cap-and-trade programs. E.P.A. officials said states could even choose to comply by enacting a state-level tax on carbon pollution;

  • 690
    Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

    S777

    I sense the need for some creativity coming up:

    ‘Allan Jones, Morgue Maunderings’

  • 691
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    @BW/687

    Ideology at work, mates jobs, For the big biz.

  • 692
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    And they still want to build the genuine thing – a real light rail train wreck.

    Why would light rail be bad in Canberra

  • 693
    mikehilliard
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    cheers poroti

  • 694
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    Queensland budget forecasts are undermining Campbell Newman's promise of a four per cent unemployment rate by 2018.

    During the last election, the premier pledged to create 420,000 jobs over two terms and take the jobless figure to levels last seen during the early days of the global financial crisis.

    But in the last budget before next year's election, Treasury is projecting a jobless rate of 5.25 per cent by 2017/18.

    The only thing undermining Newman’s ‘pledge’ was that he even made such a promise in the first place! Same goes for Abbott and his promise to create however many millions of jobs over whatever number of years.

  • 695
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 18s

    No one seems to care any more but Australia’s net foreign debt was $855 billion at end March: Approx 55% of GDP.

  • 696
    dave
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar@652

    dave

    If real risk remains steady wouldn’t a lack of volatility be a sign that people are reading risk right?

    Or is there something about volatility per se that tells you that people are not reading risk right?

    There are a couple of things people may be talking about when referring to volatility – but the main measure is the VIX – sometimes known as the *Fear Indicator*.

    It represents the market’s expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30-day period.

    It’s a measure of the prices that investors are willing to pay for S&P 500 put options to protect the downside risk of their portfolio.

    When the volatility index is at relatively Low levels, market expectation implies greater levels of investor confidence.

    The worry is that confidence is misplaced and/or miss priced – in this instance because of Fed policies.

    Our market *structure* has been weak for sometime IMO – market leadership has also been narrowing for many months and is centered on high yielding, large cap stocks – particularly the Banks – they are the ones to watch for a local local decline.

    The other thing is the “Sell in May and go away” thing is also strongest in the second year of the US Presidential Cycle – ie this year.

    Doesn’t mean it will necessarily crash or go down etc – we will have to see – but the US markets have had a good run since 2009, due largely to QE and ultra low interest rates.

    The lack of fear remains the issue – how long can the current run last.

  • 697
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    "The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election"

    I hope Essential is aware that blocking the budget does not force a new election.

  • 698
    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 5:00 pm | Permalink

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 52s

    Another fun fact. The Newman gov continues to be the only gov in Qld history that has used debt to pay for recurrent expenditure #qldpol

  • 699
    kakuru
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

    If he dies, 2GB will probably just do replays of Jones.

    Cue to Monty Python ‘Dead Parrot’ sketch….

  • 700
    poroti
    Posted Tuesday, June 3, 2014 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

    mikehilliard

    After being thwarted by the @#$%^%$@^@#! Repugs he is using the EPA. Set up ,believe it or not, by Tricky Dicky.

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