tip off

Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll since the budget finds effectively no change from the first on voting intention, although personal ratings for both leaders have moderated after big shifts last time.

Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.

Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.

In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.

As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.

Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.

1759
  • 101
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    “@dowsteve: It was worth sitting through #qanda and its loud male egos to be impressed by Catherine King.”

  • 102
    roger bottomley
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    The Oz’s headline will be “Abbott bounces back!”

  • 103
    psyclaw
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    My assessment of some on Qanda.

    C King ……. Strong, calm, to the point

    C Bernadi ….. Views driven by dogma rather than rational thought, as usual …. In effect, a fool

    R Dean …. As I predicted three days ago, a mere prick, also loud mouthed egotist

    L Turnbull … Piss week. I have heard her being moderate, sensible, brave before, but on guard tonight ……. didn’t want to add to MT’s current issues.

  • 104
    confessions
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    Wow PPM results are still incredible given this is a first term govt and newly elected PM.

  • 105
    teh_drewski
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes reporting on Twitter that Shorten’s back to a -5 net approval rating according to Newspoll.

    I think I know what the story is going to be tomorrow in the Oz.

  • 106
    roger bottomley
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    That’s a pretty amazing PPM figure.

  • 107
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Yeah I don’t know how PPM vs Approval/Disapproval can be so different.

  • 108
    psyclaw
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    No insult intended …. just post after post of vacuous nonsense. There for anyone to read. Pee week attempts to gloss the cuts, new HECs, and de-regulation as justifiable.

    Go back and read them yourself, but be prepared to be embarrassed (if you possess an iota of self reflective ability).

  • 109
    Everything
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Aint it just that folks don’t like Shorten but they hate Abbott?

  • 110
    Everything
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    I don’t need to re-read them, I wrote them!

    If there is a matter of substance you wish to debate, let me know.

    If you just wanted to vent your rage, vent away!!!

  • 111
    roger bottomley
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    Everything, that will do me just fine!

  • 112
    confessions
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes reporting on Twitter that Shorten’s back to a -5 net approval rating according to Newspoll.

    And then you look at Abbott’s. Much worse.

  • 113
    mari
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    Quite happy with figures would have prefered 56 alp to 44 lnp :devil: Happy with PPM

    Going to have an early drink purely to help my back of course :grin:

  • 114
    victoria
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    Helen Noonan former coalition MP was on a sky program earlier tonight. Asked about leadershit.

    She said no way coalition would change leader. They know only too well how bad it was for Labor and will not do the same thing, she believes Abbott will lead the coalition to the next election

  • 115
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    The format of QANDA really is more predicated on generating heat rather than light – that and the ABC’s faux balance schtick.

    It would be far better having on people with standing to speak on the substance of public policy rather than banter rhetoric.

    Krauss was pretty good, but really, the others had no business being there. Dean and Bernardi had nothing but the Murdoch debt and surplus.memes, ignorantly reiterated and Ms King really was clearly playing in the wrong venue. Ms Turnbull added zip to insight.

    Really, that silly woman at the end who suggested that Abbott and Hockey were our parents and those of us objecting to the budget were naughty children ought to have been ridiculed, but who on the panel was going to do that? Not Ms King and not even Mr Krauss.

  • 116
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    Lateline has Professor Chubb on now

  • 117
    victoria
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Night all

  • 118
    teh_drewski
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    confessions – won’t stop the Oz leading with how Shorten’s numbers have “collapsed” and how that Abbott’s “recovery” indicates that the budget “logic” is finally “winning over voters”.

  • 119
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    SMH Poll now 32k:

    Total votes: 32125.

    with Turnbull on 75% of the votes.

  • 120
    Everything
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Fran Barlow
    .....Really, that silly woman at the end who suggested that Abbott and Hockey were our parents and those of us objecting to the budget were naughty children ought to have been ridiculed

    You advocate ridicule rather than arguing a case?

  • 121
    fredex
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    *Netsat
    Abbott -26
    Shorten -5

    Who would you rather be?

    *PPM
    Shorten 45 : Abbott 35

    Same question.

    *2PP
    ALP 54
    COAL 45

    And again.

    ALP lead consolidated. Good result for the ALP, bad result for COALition, OK to good for others and Greens.

    Abbott way behind on approval down by 26 on netsat, behind by 10 on PPM.

    Not a good time for a jaunt overseas, “whilst the cat’s away …”.
    No doubt Rupert’s minions will run the ‘statesman’ line but the plebs in the Lib backbenches will have other things on their minds.

  • 122
    Wakefield
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Q and A needs to lift its game. Rude behaviour needs to be removed or the proponents removed from further invites.

  • 123
    Everything
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord:

    …..don’t get too excited, thats just me and my autodialer.

  • 124
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    That Tony Abbott Last Week Tonight video has been viewed 250,000 times on You Tube and shared 27K times on Facebook.

    Terminal is the word that comes to mind.

  • 125
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    “@Lateline: “I didn’t have any role in it” – Prof. Ian Chubb on the Governments Medical Research Fund. #Lateline”

  • 126
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll pinned down by Budget:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/newspoll-shows-tony-abbott-pinned-down-by-budget/story-e6frg6n6-1226940763136

  • 127
    Everything
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    YIKES!

    Australia’s Chief Scientist knew nothing of the $20 Billion Research fund……

  • 128
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    The Oz front page

    PM pinned down by budget: Newspoll

    A TWO-WEEK campaign to sell what Tony Abbott insists is “the right budget for this time” has failed to deliver any boost for the government.

  • 129
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    ET

    Ridicule and arguing a case aren’t mutually exclusive.

  • 130
    rossmcg
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    PJ Keating once said he didn’t know why anybody would bother going on q and a.

    I gave up on it years ago but I follow the thread here each Monday and that usually reinforces my view that it is a waste of time. I wonder who decided that having people with entrenched positions argue with other made good television.,

    If the ABC needs to save money cutting q and a might be a good starting point.

  • 131
    confessions
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    A TWO-WEEK campaign to sell what Tony Abbott insists is “the right budget for this time” has failed to deliver any boost for the government after it handed down the worst received federal budget in more than 20 years.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/newspoll-shows-tony-abbott-pinned-down-by-budget/story-e6frg6n6-1226940763136#

    Not Shanahan. Perhaps his anti Shorten spin comes later.

  • 132
    The Lorax
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    psyclaw@103: And Krauss?

  • 133
    Everything
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    Fran:

    That lady had every right to ask her question.

    If she was making incorrect assumptions, point that out. What were they in your view?

  • 134
    psyclaw
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib

    See #86 #93 #94 #103 #109 in previous thread for starters.

    In those, you were arguing that the HECS changes are no big deal.

    Disgraceful, given that you apparently work in the research sector.

    As I write, Ian Chubb is ridiculing the dereg of unis, and saying that there’ll be fewer and very more expensive courses.

    Add to him at least 6 other VCs I’ve’ seen ridiculing the changes.

    But rusted on old you just parrots the Abbotteer line.

  • 135
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    I too am happy with Newspoll basically holding steady.

    No positive headlines for Abbott. :)

  • 136
    psyclaw
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    The Lorax

    I quite enjoyed Krauss. It’s always difficult for visitors but he knew a fair bit about the state of affairs here. And he uses rational argument.

    IMHO he acquitted himself better than most OS guests, some of whom are completely in the dark.

  • 137
    Rossmore
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    So tonights The Australian’s verdict on Newspoll is…

    “The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows the Coalition’s primary vote remains stuck at a 4½-year low of 36 per cent ¬ despite the efforts of the Prime Minister and Joe Hockey to sell the need for the controversial measures in the budget.”

    Wow, that’s about as bad as it gets.

    There will undoubtedly be consequences.

  • 138
    Everything
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    YIKES!

    So “vacuous nonsense” and “Pee week attempts to gloss the cuts, new HECs, and de-regulation as justifiable” and “be prepared to be embarrassed” and “if you possess an iota of self reflective ability”

    are all because my posts meant “HECS changes are no big deal”

    :devil:

  • 139
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    Somehow I think Ian Chubb won’t be reappointed as Chief Scientist by when his term expires (early 2016 assuming a 5 year term). Knowing this Government, the position will probably be abolished then, if not before. Or a Climate Change Denier or a witch doctor might be appointed.

  • 140
    psyclaw
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib

    If I might be so bold to enter a reply to your unicorn question to Fran, the flaw in the lady’s question was her claim that we are in dire straights economically.

    You and she and the Abbotteers themselves are the only ones in the country who believe this.

  • 141
    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    HECS changes are big deal, especially if you wanted people like myself back into learning while Kevin Andrews attacks Social Services.

    Can’t have it both ways Mod Lib.

    I have done too much TAFE to waste my time in the education system.

  • 142
    DisplayName
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    Mod

    Australia’s Chief Scientist knew nothing of the $20 Billion Research fund……

    Just goes to show how useless those scientists are. He should be sacked.

  • 143
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    As Tony Greig used to say:

    Abbort is forked!

  • 144
    confessions
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Steve777:

    I’d reckon he’d wouldn’t accept the offer of a re-appointment anyway. Chubb seems a thoroughly decent man and consumate professional who is barely keeping it together in the face of this govt’s rank numptyness.

  • 145
    Steve777
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Australia’s Chief Scientist knew nothing of the $20 Billion Research fund……

    That research fund just seemed to pop up out of nowhere. Ian Chubb was polite, suggesting that the Health Department or other stakeholders may have been consulted. It has all the appearance of being another Abbott brain fart like Direct Inaction or Abbott’s PPL.

  • 146
    Everything
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    I have done too much TAFE to waste my time in the education system.

    I support your decision.

  • 147
    psyclaw
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    No, those terms describe yor assumptions and pleadings on behalf of the Abbotteers.

    Why don’t you have the courage to just say up front that you are an Abbottteer at heart, despite your fantasies and pseudo attractions about to MT.

    It would be quite amusing to see you change your mind on pretty well everything youusually say, in the unlikely situation that MT became leader (and cha need most of their present policies)

  • 148
    bemused
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    confessions@90


    King had several opportunities to remind a large audience that this was an unfair budget. And she did not do so.


    A fair number of her responses were talked over by Bernardi and that Dean character.

    If anyone is in any doubt about how today’s Liberal party view the position of professional women in Australian society, a video of tonight’s Qanda is an exercise in gender politics.

    Nothing to do with gender and everything to do with pig ignorance and bad manners by Rowan Dean.

  • 149
    taylormade
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    guytaur @ 135

    What happened to your prediction though ?

    From memory regular poster Sohar was on the money with the Newspoll result.

  • 150
    Everything
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    I said earlier, just after the budget, that I thought they had gone too far.

    In fact I think I described it as being like Abbott’s Workchoices.

    The overblown rhetoric about it being the end of the University sector is a bit ridiculous, particularly coming from ALP tragics, given the ALP introduced (or re-introduced to be precise) charges to go to Uni.

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