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Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll since the budget finds effectively no change from the first on voting intention, although personal ratings for both leaders have moderated after big shifts last time.

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Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.

Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.

In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.

As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.

Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1759 comments

1,759 thoughts on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

  1. zoidlord

    According to the http://www.whatwillmydegreecost.com.au/ website, if I were to go to uni as planned in IT, then I would be up further $32,750, $57,750 total, and 21 years to pay it off.

    Yeah, but no thanks.

  2. guytaur

    Senaor Wong referring to War and Peace to describe Cormann length of introduction.

  3. Boerwar

    DAVE
    Your red spots are looking good if you are short… or bad, if you are long.

  4. guytaur

    “@lyndalcurtis: Sen. Cormann interjects in explanation of the Turnbull dinner timeline “Is this related to the budget?” #econstimates”

  5. poroti

    badcat

    Speaking of speeding . An OUCH from Melbourne today.

    [‘Death-wish’ P-plate motorbike hoon

    It was ‘two minutes of madness’ that ended with lacerated testicles and a prison sentence]

    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/deathwish-pplate-motorbike-hoon-given-suspended-jail-term-20140604-39ij6.html

  6. Boerwar

    dave

    I suspect that Australia is in the worst of all possible worlds:

    (a) a guaranteed nuclear target because of, inter alia, Pine Gap and North-west Cape, and;
    (b) not a holder of nuclear weapons.

    The obvious and nasty scenario is where the Chinese, in order to give an example, fire one off at Australia in order to test US resolve.

    I also suspect that a fair bit of the farting around in relation to the sons and daughters of the Collins class will be around ensuring there is the potential to pop in tubes for launching nasties with the long-lasting glow at the pointy end.

  7. guytaur

    “@Simon_Cullen: Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson confirms that it was a chance meeting in a car park that led to dinner with @TurnbullMalcolm & others.”

  8. Boerwar

    g
    Right. So tomorrow we will get around two hundred column centimetres from Bolt explaining why Parkinson just has to go.

  9. Bushfire Bill

    [“@Simon_Cullen: Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson confirms that it was a chance meeting in a car park that led to dinner with @TurnbullMalcolm & others.”]

    Turnbull had the same story on Ben Fordham’s show on 2GB this afternoon.

    Makes you wonder how many of the glitterati you just walk by in car parks thinking “Wanker”, doesn’t it?

  10. Boerwar

    p
    Lucky he was half-nutted. It probably kept him out of jail, but, having survived his self-inflicted Darwin test, he still gets to pass on his genes.

  11. Lynchpin

    Yes, BW, or that their choice of restaurant offends Bolt’s right to be a bigot.

  12. CTar1

    Bw – A rapid drop in ‘platelets’ (the bit in blood that causes coagulation put me in WVH for week a couple of weeks ago.

    I was going well for week after but went down again on Tuesday for the night. Just home and feeling somewhat OK.

  13. guytaur

    @Simon_Cullen: RT @leysie ABC signs deal with Shanghai Media Group. http://t.co/nvg2rj0y5B

    Interesting? Given Government scrapping Australia Network

  14. Boerwar

    L

    Bolt is living testimony that bigots have…something or other, too.

    …um… we might just save William a court experience by not completing that sentence. Or not, depending.

  15. badcat

    [ CTar1

    Posted Wednesday, June 4, 2014 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    badcat

    check the Merc speedo and rear view mirror often

    Been having a bit of bad health lately so going fast in the E500 is not on the menu at the moment.
    ]

    ————————————————

    CTar1 – sorry to hear – wishing you a speedy recovery – Best Wishes and Good Health to you 🙂

  16. guytaur

    Ctar

    Heres hoping thing stay OK 🙂

  17. poroti

    Boerwar

    Speaking of stoopid

    [Gwyneth Paltrow: Yelling at water hurts its feelings

    Gwyneth Paltrow has encouraged her newsletter readers to consider the impact being unkind to water has on the substance………She cited a study into the energy of words by Japanese scientist Masuru Emoto that involved speaking, yelling and playing music to water to discover if it had any molecular impact.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/gwyneth-paltrow-yelling-at-water-hurts-its-feelings-20140604-zrxcl.html#ixzz33eTQvzaN

  18. Boerwar

    CTaR1

    That is not nice. If you need someone to chauffeur you around the countryside, say for a pizza at the Cork Street Cafe at Gundaroo, give me a call.

  19. CTar1

    Hockey – ‘There’s not many restaurants in Canberra’.

    😆

  20. Boerwar

    poroti

    A friend of mine gave me that very tome for a read.

    I told her I had screamed at the dishwater and that the dishes still did not wash themselves.

  21. dave

    Boerwar@1462

    DAVE
    Your red spots are looking good if you are short… or bad, if you are long.

    Its had a good run, so either sell or buy some insurance with options. Then wait for *Green Dots* in a daily time frame.

    If chasing more profit – go short as you say.

    Thing is we don’t know how long the decline will continue etc.

    Fun Fact – CBA is paying out more in dividends each year then what the shares originally listed for on the ASX – ain’t hindsight grand 🙂

  22. guytaur

    Senator Heffernan is saying the US is technically insolvent

  23. CTar1

    Thanks folks.

    If i behave myself I’ll be alright.

  24. Boerwar

    dave
    I think I would go OK with hindsight. Working only on foresight I am pretty ‘orrible.

  25. mari

    Quietely reading PB as having a rest day, went to the only Physiotherapist on the island yesterday who was excellent, with all the mod gear like untrasound. I have a pulled back muscle from Croatia pretty sore today booked in again tomorrow Surprisingly weather not so good here even a bit of rain, but of course no CC?? Read the link to UK weather, scary

    BTW THe apricots growing over here in the backyard where I stay are beautiful and the plums are just ripening

    Victoria is certainly a shemozzle isn’t it?

  26. Greensborough Growler

    BW,

    Floweres and a box of chocolates always works for me!

  27. badcat

    [ poroti

    Posted Wednesday, June 4, 2014 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

    badcat

    Speaking of speeding . An OUCH from Melbourne today.

    ‘Death-wish’ P-plate motorbike hoon

    It was ‘two minutes of madness’ that ended with lacerated testicles
    ]

    ————————————————

    Getting his rocks off …….

  28. Boerwar

    GG
    I will keep that in mind should, doG forbid, the appropriate occasion arise.

  29. poroti

    Boerwar

    I think the give away that the Japanese “scientist” is actually a pisstake is his surname “Emoto”

  30. Boerwar

    badcat
    haha. He got just one of his rocks off.

  31. Boerwar

    mari

    [Victoria is certainly a shemozzle isn’t it?]

    You go away and look what happens.

  32. Boerwar

    P

    Ah So. The Emotocon.

  33. Greensborough Growler

    BW,

    You could also start making nice with the washing machine if you want to generate some creative tension.

    It never hurts to have a Plan B.

  34. badcat

    { CTar1

    Posted Wednesday, June 4, 2014 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    Thanks folks.

    If i behave myself I’ll be alright.
    ]

    ——————————————————-

    Cheer up CTar1, – My mate, Phil Accio, tells me a story of lying back in bed with a women from down his street when her cell phone rings.

    She picks it up, he looks over and listens in

    She says cheerily , “Hi , I’m so glad you called. Really ????. Thats terrific, have fun. OK. Bye Bye”

    She hangs up and Phil asks, “Who was that ?”

    “Oh that was my husband telling me he is having a great time on his fishing trip with you “

  35. Boerwar

    Time to go and prepare the moules.

  36. BK

    Boerwar
    Musslng up in the kitchen?

  37. poroti

    BK

    Perhaps he meant moles ?

  38. zoidlord

    Retweeted by sortius
    Naomi Woodley ‏@naomiwoodley 14m

    DSS tells estimates a single dad with two kids (6&9yrs) on $45k part time, would lose $895.41 in family tax benefits under budget changes.

  39. BK

    and perhaps I meant mussling.

  40. poroti

    BK

    As long as you did not meant mulesing !!

  41. zoidlord

    ZDNet ‏@ZDNet 2m

    Proposed NBN FttN products may be misleading: ACCC http://zd.net/1l4Blp1

    (LOL!)

  42. mari

    Boerwar

    Glad to be of assistance re shemozzle in Victoria, now working on Federal sphere by staying over here 😀

    I am nor sure what happened to my post re

    CTAR1 look afteryourself won’t you?

  43. cud chewer

    Won’t be long before the Libs try to legislate to wreck the ACCC, zoid.

  44. CTar1

    mari – Doing my best.

  45. Atticus

    This week the business lobby groups have blamed “sluggish retail figures and lower consumer confidence” on the warm weather. Now they’re bleating like stuck sheep about the 50 cents/hour minimum wage increase in order to pretend that Abbott, Hockey and Cormann’s deficit crisis scaremongering, their constant talking down our economy as “Labor’s mess” and their Frankenstein’s monster of a budget have nothing whatsoever to do with the Thatcherite Trough of Despond they’ve been dragging our economy into.

  46. Atticus

    BK,
    If still here, another big tip of the old cap for your Dawn Patrols and going above and beyond the call of duty with reporting to PBers on QT, Q & A and Insiders!

  47. poroti

    mari

    I take it you have not spent the day…………
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qKyGKYU9nw

  48. lizzie

    Whenever there’s a wage rise, however small, they run the file tapes of doom and gloom. They just change the puppets who are “speaking”.

  49. BK

    Atticus
    I would like to describe my afforts as a labour of love, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to do so.

  50. mari

    CTAR1

    Good on you, only burn the candle one end???

    Poroti

    No I havn’t would have to carry me around, or might fix me?????

  51. zoidlord

    @BK/1512

    So much for lowering costs 😛

  52. badcat

    [ CTar1

    Posted Wednesday, June 4, 2014 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    mari – Doing my best.
    ]

    ——————————————————-

    A man and a woman were waiting at the hospital donation center.

    Man: “What are you doing here today?”

    Woman: “Oh, I’m here to donate some blood. They’re going to give me $5 for it.”

    Man: “Hmm, that’s interesting. I’m here to donate sperm, myself. But they pay me $25.”

    The woman looked thoughtful for a moment and they chatted some more before going their separate ways.

    Several months later, the same man and woman meet again in the donation center.

    Man: “Oh, hi there! Here to donate blood again?”

    Woman: [shaking her head with mouth closed] “Unh unh.”

  53. zoidlord

    Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
    AEU ‏@AEUfederal 16m

    Senate Estimates makes it clear that Federal Ed Dept has done NO modelling on effect of Gonski cuts on outcomes for students and schools.

  54. lizzie

    BK

    Your “job” is getting bigger, too. More publications as well as more political pieces from “hard-working journos”. Amazing how some of them have found their voices when it’s too bloody late to affect the election.

    Thank you. My PB morning doesn’t start until you are on deck.
    Think of yourself as the dawn chorus 😀

  55. MTBW

    mari 1507

    Yes!

    Hope your back gets better look after yourself.

  56. poroti

    lizzie

    As Stan Grant just said on Sky about it. Executive salaries are rising 70 times faster so why is that not a problem.

  57. Atticus

    BK,

    If it’s any consolation, OH and I are enjoying far higher spirits thanks to reading your lucid reports and droll quips rather than watching any of those psychodramas (emphasis on the “psycho”)! 🙂

  58. poroti

    lizzie

    The “sounds” of BK.

    [Australia ; Birds ; The dawn chorus ]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvTnerMF0n4

  59. Greensborough Growler

    BK,

    PBs “Morning Glory”!

  60. mari

    MTBW

    Many thanks will try

  61. zoidlord

    Further 1637 taken to hospital in the week of May 25th to June 1st:
    http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/1637-taken-to-hospital-for-heatstroke-may-25-june-1

    For Heatstroke.

  62. zoidlord

    Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
    Jonathan Swan ‏@jonathanvswan 15m

    Martin Parkinson confirms he still believes carbon tax and resources rent tax are good policies.

    Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
    Shane Wright ‏@swrightwestoz 15m

    Very model of public service objectivity. Martin Parkinson says no change in his views on resource rent tax/price on carbon…

    Liberals won’t like this…

    Retweeted by Greens
    Rachel Siewert ‏@SenatorSiewert 9m

    Single parents could lose more than $2000/yr from changes to FTB A&B + loses from Single P payment + edu supp cut #estimates #bustthebudget

    *so much for “Fair budget”.

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    My phone is going off and I’ve been otherwise busy – what did the Qld gov just announce regarding union campaign laws?

  63. BK

    Atticus
    Yes, it takes a while to put together as I need to read the articles in order to characterise them.
    But I would have read them anyway, so the net additional effort isn’t that great.
    But I have come to accept it as a sort of respomsibility now.

  64. poroti

    zoidlord

    “Fair Budget” ? you misheard, it is a “Fare Budget” , an important difference.

  65. zoidlord

    @poroti/1528

    Silly me!

  66. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    BK
    thank you.

  67. dave

    CTar1 – Best wishes for a speedy comeback.

  68. Atticus

    BK,

    In all seriousness, this “responsibility” is one that you are fulfilling consistently at a level of excellence which makes some of the professional news compilations look urine-weak.

    This is why myself and so many other PBer’s frequently express how highly your Homeric efforts are valued.

  69. teh_drewski

    The Coalition can’t justify cutting the Federal Health and Education Departments if they’re going to go around being useful, producing reports, providing analysis and performing modeling.

    So of course the Government hasn’t asked them to do anything!

  70. poroti

    How informed are we da electorate ? Lowy Institute finds that a whole 30% of Australian’s they polled think Indonesia is a democracy. Apparently stereotypes are the problem .Hmmm now where would people get that from I wonder ?

  71. BK

    Announcing a possible cap on carbon emissions, China may have just one-upped Obama on climate action http://bit.ly/1kAMq1u
    And TEN-upped Abbott.

  72. BH

    CTar1
    Sorry to hear you’ve been laid low. Take care ♡♡

  73. BK

    All the best to you CTar1!

  74. victoria

    CTar1

    Catching up on posts. Sorry to hear about your ill health. Hope you recover fully very soon

  75. MTBW

    I know I am being cynical but it just occurred to me that maybe the PM’s plane might have been delayed by all the tradesmen who service the planes and are at threat of losing the jobs may have got their revenge.

  76. zoidlord

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 16m

    In good news, now that these nonsensical Qld union campaign laws are being repealed in an embarrassing backflip, I can start blogging again

    Simon Cullen ‏@Simon_Cullen 12m

    ABC’s Mark Simkin (who’s not on Twitter) says senior Libs are boasting they “played the Nats” to get the fuel excise increase in the budget

  77. MTBW

    Ctar1

    Get well soon!

  78. MTBW

    Zoid

    Just heard that as well – I thought they were in coalition.

    Seems not to be the case in every instance that doesn’t serve the Libs.

  79. zoidlord

    Emma Griffiths @EJGriffiths · 10m

    insight into the fuel excise “double dealing power play” within the Coalition with thanks to @abcnews mark simkin http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-04/power-plays-behind-fuel-excise-budget-measure/5500704

    So they were playing their own side too.

  80. CTar1

    Thanks folks – Doing my best.

  81. MTBW

    From the link posted above re fuel:

    [They are boasting it was a tactic to “play the Nats”; the rebate was put on the agenda and deliberately leaked to inflame the Nationals so the party would support the higher fuel excise as the lesser of two evils.

    “[Changing the rebate] was never the plan,” one senior source declared. “Gina and Twiggy would’ve come after us” – a reference to two of Australia’s richest miners, Gina Rinehart and Andrew Forrest.]

    There you have it – Gina and Andrew are now running the country who would have thought it!

  82. CTar1

    [
    GamOver Zeus: How do you protect your computer against the massive virus that’s targeting your internet banking data?
    Users are given two week deadline, but how can you avoid becoming victim to virus that’s already cost £16m? ]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/gameover-zeus-removal-detection-and-how-you-can-protect-yourself-9480416.html

  83. victoria

    So the Libs played the Nationals. The big question is why are senior Liberals willing to say this at all? What is the strategy?

    [The Cabinet and razor gang processes are notoriously difficult to penetrate, but the very fact senior Liberals are willing to say the sort of things they’re saying – effectively rubbing the Nationals’ noses in diesel – will only add fuel to this fire.]

  84. zoidlord

    @Victoria/1548

    Scapegoat.

  85. lizzie

    victoria

    When I watched (as much as I could bear of) QT today, my overwhelming reaction was that the Libs are suffering from ideological triumphalism and are blind to the feelings of others.

  86. DisplayName

    Arrogance.

  87. J341983

    Seriously… what the f**k is wrong with these people?!

  88. ruawake

    Who is talking to the ABC? Truss should read the riot act. But of course he is a member of the Qld Division of the Liberal Party.

    I wonder if the NSW or Vic Nats would like the leadership back?

  89. victoria

    lizzie
    [Posted Wednesday, June 4, 2014 at 6:50 pm | PERMALINK
    victoria

    When I watched (as much as I could bear of) QT today, my overwhelming reaction was that the Libs are suffering from ideological triumphalism and are blind to the feelings of others.]

    QT has become unwatchable.

  90. victoria

    Ru

    This mob are leaking like sieves

  91. lizzie

    [Australia’s wealthiest people use a complex web of trusts and companies to hide what could potentially be billions of dollars from the tax office.

    Auditor general Ian McPhee has released a report on the Australian Taxation Office’s handling of high-wealth individuals (HWIs) – people who control an estimated net wealth of $30m or more each.

    McPhee said the tax compliance of the 2,650 HWIs and 3,700 potential HWIs, who had a total estimated wealth of $500bn in 2012/13, represented a “significant revenue risk”.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/04/australias-richest-could-be-hiding-billions-from-tax-office

  92. ruawake

    In a few months the Liberals will realise they are 33% into their term and are still blaming everyone else, when people say but you have had a year to change things, they will realise they spent a the time being the opposition after winning an election.

  93. lizzie

    rua

    The influence of a leader who would rather tear down than build. Amazing how easily they are all persuaded to follow his lead in vindictiveness.

  94. zoidlord

    lol

    Typical:

    Mathias Cormann ‏@MathiasCormann 37s

    Simkins story on decision to re-introduce fuel excise indexation inaccurate. No one actually involved in process could possibly say that.

  95. J341983

    @1560 – for a PM less than a year in to need assurances of his Cabinet’s “full support”… amazing.

  96. sohar

    The words “full support” have been uttered by Turnbull in reference to Abbott. The pin has been pulled.

  97. lizzie

    The question is whether we lefties throw our “support” behind Malcolm.

    Has he the courage to drop Direct Action?
    Can we trust him to build the real NBN?

    Answers in the negative, I think.

  98. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    “Full support”? Abbott is toast.

  99. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    I wouldn’t support Malcolm if he was holding on by one finger above a vat of goat innards.

  100. victoria

    Lizzie

    It would not matter if Turnbull led fhe party, he is on same page as dear leader

    [Turnbull said he supported all of the budget, including the $7 co-payment for GP visits and higher education changes and revealed he had had dinner with Mr Abbott in Canberra on Sunday night following the furore.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-insists-tony-abbott-has-liberal-partys-full-support-20140604-39j73.html#ixzz33f01dRMR

  101. BH

    BK

    I must thank you as well. My OH has conquered the Tablet so that he can get to your links before me every morning. It’s actually helping his stroke recovery in having to remember how to do it. You’re a hero to me 🙂

  102. dave

    lizzie@1550

    When I watched (as much as I could bear of) QT today, my overwhelming reaction was that the Libs are suffering from ideological triumphalism and are blind to the feelings of others.

    Expecting the utter worst from them – will rarely leave you wRONg.

  103. victoria

    BH

    I had not realised your OH had suffered a stroke

  104. zoidlord

    @Victoria/1567

    As I said, changing the leader doesn’t mean change of policies.

    The whole notion that things will change, at a drop of the hat, on the bases of leader change is nonsense, it’s more to do with ideology.

  105. BK

    BH
    That makes it all worthwhile!

  106. ruawake

    Is Abbott really going to the USA to meet Obama without his wife, the First Lady?

  107. J341983

    @1573 … I’m assuming Peta is going with him…

  108. Steve777

    Malcolm Turnbull is a social liberal but an economic hardliner. Were Turnbull to become leader the ‘look and feel’ of the Government might change a bit, but apart from dropping a couple of Abbott brain farts, like PPL and Knighthoods, he won’t change the hard line direction sprung on the country in the Budget. And he won’t get the job unless he reassures his colleagues that he will do nothing on climate change.

  109. dave

    [ Who is talking to the ABC? Truss should read the riot act ]

    Its shades of ‘Iron Bar’ boasting on 4 Corners how the tories ambushed howard back in the day.

  110. Tom Hawkins

    [Is Abbott really going to the USA to meet Obama without his wife, the First Lady?]

    And there I was thinking that Peta was the First Lady.

  111. victoria

    Ru

    I thought Margie was on the plane with Abbott?

  112. BH

    Victoria

    One of the joys of getting older. Huge surpriseto all but he’s a 2x cancer survivor and takes all in his stride. No physical impairment byt his memory lapses are sometimes hilarious. We find laughing at it works better than getting stressed.

    We’re lucky. 56 treasured years so far.

    I manage to lurk and am grateful to you all for keeping me up to date but Drs orders are OH is to be watched 24/7. He’s active – I’m bugg..ed 🙂

  113. Tom Hawkins

    [Seriously… what the f**k is wrong with these people?!]

    They like to win and like to boast about it. Even if it means they destroy themselves in the process.

  114. victoria

    Clive palmer is being interviewed on 7.30 right now

  115. poroti

    ruawake

    John Key set the Australasian standard of “Mateship” with Barak. JG was up there as well. Tones’ ? Will be “Not so much”

    [Infographic: Obama Accepts Rare Outsider Into Golf Game

    New Zealand has long maintained a warm relationship with the United States, but few measures of bilateralism are as meaningful as the one that occurred on Thursday. In the final days of his vacation in Hawaii, President Obama hit the links with New Zealand Prime Minister John Key and his teenage son Max, an unlikely inclusion in the President’s normally insular golf game.]

    http://swampland.time.com/2014/01/03/obama-golfs-with-new-zealand-prime-minister/

  116. victoria

    BH

    Your OH is a tough cookie and he is also fortunate to have you looking out for him. 🙂

  117. Raaraa

    BK

    With China and the US upping their game, we no longer have that excuse that what we do for the climate as a country is insignificant. 1st and 3rd largest by population. If only we can get India on board.

  118. BK

    Raaraa
    From leader to pariah in one election! Shame.

  119. mikehilliard

    lizzie@1557

    Thank you so much for posting that link. I have very little faith in this government doing anything other than make the situation worse.

    Meanwhile Labor seem to have dropped the ‘environment’ ball completely?

  120. BH

    Thanks victoria. We Swannies fans are made of steel!

    BTW I was buoyed by your post re the kids at school being politically aware. Social media has its value

  121. BH

    Mikehilliard

    Mark Butler was on telly yesterday emphasising that Hunt is lying about Obama’s CC plan mirroring his DA nonplan.

    News bulletins didn’t pick it up.

  122. WarrenPeace

    f any of the Poll Bludger s could stomach it they should ring Jones, Bolt and their ilk, pretending to be Abbotteers, putting the boot into Lefty Turnbull. 🙂

    The Senators-elect Family First Bob Day and Liberal Democrats David Leyonhjelm should only be described as IPA Senators.

  123. mikehilliard

    BH@1588

    I missed Butler v Hunt. Hunt is a little pissant that has no place being anywhere near an environmental portfolio & how people like Hunt end up in positions of power will remain an eternal mystery to me.

  124. Dee

    Turnbull has been forced to back the budget sewerage.

    No coming back for him!

  125. WarrenPeace

    I meant to add stirring the pot and keep it simmering.

  126. dave

    [ Turnbull has been forced to back the budget sewerage. ]

    He made his own *choice* no one force him to do anything.

    He is as bad as any of them.

  127. Dee

    Mike

    On my way back from Brissie I tuned into the ABC.

    It kept phasing in and out but thought it was Andrew Leigh tearing shreds off the government for DA and lauding carbon pricing.

  128. victoria

    BH

    Social media is definitely doing its bit to keep the young aware of what is going on

  129. zoidlord

    @Dee/1591

    Yup, bring everyone into backing the budget, so no chance of Leadership.

    Not really smart politics though.

  130. AussieAchmed

    Bushfire Bill

    Posted Wednesday, June 4, 2014 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    A perfect excuse:

    The Australian Transport and Safety Bureau will call for tenders this week for vessels and sonar equipment to continue the hunt for the missing plane.
    A Chinese ship has already begun conducting mapping of the Indian Ocean sea floor, so that sonar equipment can be towed safely and obstacles avoided.
    ===================================================

    More likely so their submarines don’t bang into things

  131. Dee

    Dave

    Turnbull had been invisible in regards to selling the budget.

  132. poroti

    BH

    [We find laughing at it works better than getting stressed.]
    As the classic Aussie cartoon said

    [“For gor’sake, stop laughing – this is serious!”]
    http://www.slv.vic.gov.au/latrobejournal/issue/latrobe-65/latrobe-65-053a.jpg

  133. dave

    [ More likely so their submarines don’t bang into things ]

    I hope someone is checking they aren’t also dropping submarine detection accoustic stuff for future use.

  134. imacca

    [ Simkins story on decision to re-introduce fuel excise indexation inaccurate. No one actually involved in process could possibly say that. ]

    The problem the Libs have (apart from somebody in the Libs putting this out there, true or not) is that Simkins story is considerably more plausible than some of the bullsh$t that they have been saying in public about Economy and the Budget. 🙂

    Fwark, Abbott is toast. Just remains to see how burnt and crispy he gets before getting popped out and discarded.

  135. Dee

    According to local rag, Newspoll, Abbott up, Shorten on the way down.

    Oh, and people are warming to the budget. 😯

  136. dave

    [ Turnbull had been invisible in regards to selling the budget. ]

    So how does that square with being *forced*

    I just don’t know why people want to make excuses for turnbull or give him an out – he was up to his armpits in trying to bring Labor down over utegate etc.

    He is just another flavour of bad.

  137. ruawake

    Oh I forgot. Re: Newspoll

    Dennis Shanahan has not commented on Newspoll for weeks, has he taken a package?

  138. roger bottomley

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/04/royal-commission-to-investigate-priest-commended-by-tony-abbott

    Marvellous judgment by the PM and the Vatican. Thankfully Wollongong Diocese persisted.

  139. Steve777

    Greg Hunt must surely believe his ‘Direct Action’ plan is rubbish. A non-plan that will have no impact in addressing a problem that he may still believe is an issue but most of his colleagues don’t.

    Presumably he regards his life’s work as rolling back environmental protections to make things easier for miners, fossil fuel interests, fishing and developers.

  140. Raaraa

    1602 Dee

    This so called “warming up”, I wonder if it is within or close to the margin of error.

  141. MagicPudding

    One aspect of the budget which seems not to have attracted any attention is the new “Commonwealth Scholarship” initiative. According to the budget papers, “Institutions will be required to spend $1 of every $5 of additional revenue on these scholarships.” That means, of course, that institutions will have to raise fees 20% more than they would otherwise have done, to cover the cost. So, despite the name, these will not really be “Commonwealth” scholarships; the Commonwealth will not contribute anything to them. They should be called “Other Poor Students Scholarships”, since that is who will really be paying for them.

    This is a similar pattern to the Medical Research Fund. The Abbott Government will claim credit for a worthy initiative when in reality the funding will be extracted by force from a disadvantaged section of the community. The sick will pay for the medical fund, and the sicker you are the more you will have to contribute. In the case of the scholarship fund, poor students will be forced to borrow money to pay for other students who are just a little poorer. An argument can be made (though I do not agree with it) that education is a private benefit to the student so the student should be prepared to make a substantial contribution to it, but I cannot see any reasonable case that could be made in favour of scholarships for the disadvantaged being wholly paid for by their fellow students. One can see that there will be people who never get a big income from their degree, but spend years paying for the degrees of others who do go on to be very successful.

  142. Raaraa

    1606 Steve777

    This Obama’s “Direct Action” seems to be the same only in name.

    It looks like a mechanism that allows the States to do their own form of pollution capping. In China, it looks like the regions and cities do their own pollution control.

    I wonder, is there anything that prevents our states and territories, from setting their own?

  143. Raaraa

    Someone needs to ask Dutton, who gets to keep the IP if any medical breakthrough is made through the MRF.

  144. CTar1

    I think Talc is on 7:30 tomorrow night.

  145. poroti

    Raaraa

    Minister Cunning Stunt describing Obama’s proposals as being Direct Action is bullshit of the first water.

  146. WarrenPeace

    Back in the early days of Rudd being elected Leader of the Labor Party and during the Godwin Gretch Affair, one of the few sometimes the only Liberal supporter was a poster named Glen.

    When defending his beliefs he would put a good case and he had a sense of humour when the Libs stuffed it.

    Does anybody know what happened to Glen.

    Or was he like me and didn’t bother to lurk or post while the Rudd/Gillard Green/Labor bickering was going on.

    Does anybody know what happened to Glen.

    Or was he like me and didn’t bother to lurk or post while the Rudd/Gillard Green/labor bickering was going on

  147. Dee

    I’d be the last one to defend Turnbull, I’m just calling it how moi sees it, that he was pressured to get out there and sell the budget as a show of support for the Rabbott.

  148. zoidlord

    Retweeted by Greens
    Rachel Siewert ‏@SenatorSiewert 4m

    Dept Social Services can’t tell me what impact decreasing indexation rate will have income for aged pensioners – they r checking #estimates

    WTF Abbott?

  149. silmaj

    1616
    Would anyone know the CPI rate in the future?

  150. frednk

    Retweeted by Winker Tiny Abbitt
    Craig Thomler ‏@craigthomler 10m

    Five countries that don’t have a Science Minister: Saudi Arabia, Vatican City, Mexico, North Korea & Australia. #auspol

    Kim Carr ‏@SenKimCarr 2h

    This is a government that has no science minister, no science policy, no technology policy, and no jobs policy http://fb.me/2UHWHbHky

  151. confessions

    [Does anybody know what happened to Glen.]

    Glen moved to Canberra and shit got busy for him.

    But he was a pretty cool guy who had a seriously retro love of Churchill for someone his age, but rocked it nonetheless. He also had a weird belief that Bruce Bilson would be a great Liberal leader, but despite mocking him for it, none of us held that particular obsession against him.

    Do not diss Glen.

  152. bemused

    confessions@1619


    Does anybody know what happened to Glen.


    Glen moved to Canberra and shit got busy for him.

    But he was a pretty cool guy who had a seriously retro love of Churchill for someone his age, but rocked it nonetheless. He also had a weird belief that Bruce Bilson would be a great Liberal leader, but despite mocking him for it, none of us held that particular obsession against him.

    Do not diss Glen.

    He reappeared for a while as Gary Sparrow.

  153. poroti

    frednk

    [This is a government that has no science minister, no science policy, no technology policy,]
    As a journo once sais about Tony’s first political mentor , one B.A. Santamaria , his ideal world was an Agrarian feudal theocracy.

  154. BH

    MikeH

    Malcolm F arr was also on Sky yesterday. Speers, as usual, was trying to whitewash the DA plan as being the same as Obama’s. Farr said, very firmly, that they are not similar.

  155. zoidlord

    @silmaj/1617

    No idea.

    There is no information on the Human Services website regarding the CPI rate in the future.

  156. WarrenPeace

    One thing that we could do is find out those who think this budget is is good for the Australian people and sell them the bridge that spans Sydney Harbour, then donate the money raised to the Labor Party.

  157. dave

    [ I’m just calling it ………..that he was pressured to get out there and sell the budget as a show of support for the Rabbott. ]

    I doubt that muchly. He is a very senior cabinet minister and if he doesn’t want to support what the government does he has far more options then most people.

    Bur there is nothing to suggest he doesn’t support the budget.

    We do know he full bloodedly supports wrecking the NBN and has appointed a senior Newscorp bod as NBN CFO in the last day or two.

    All very cozy like.

  158. confessions

    This is a seriously good decision and comes on the very day news broke that WA Liberals are mounting a campaign to have Sunday penalty rates reduced.
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24128066/widening-gap-for-australias-low-earners/

    Their logic is that Sunday trading harks back to a forgotten period and people don’t live like this anymore. Which is laughable given they are WA based and so would know that this state still has arcane retail trading laws.

    When shops are permitted to be open on days of their choosing, then they can pitch a fit about wage structures being out of touch with how people live.

  159. confessions

    [As a journo once sais about Tony’s first political mentor , one B.A. Santamaria , his ideal world was an Agrarian feudal theocracy.]

    Indeed. And a world where women take a back seat.

    And on that note I was pleased to see Palmer offer an apology of sorts to Credlin for his boneheaded stupidity.

  160. lefty e

    The great thing about the budget reception has been watching the LNP slowly confront how far right of the mainstream they are.

    Most of their sacred cows are electoral poison.

  161. CTar1

    [ NSA whistleblower Snowden seeks Brazil asylum
    Edward Snowden says he will not exchange information with Brazil in return for asylum if granted.]

    Seeking asylum is South America is all the go these days.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2014/06/nsa-whistleblower-snowden-seeks-brazil-asylum-20146451628454409.html

  162. poroti

    BH

    Anyone saying Obama’s move is “Direct Action” is a lying bullshit arskehole.

  163. Crispy

    Back in 07 I thought Glen was a YL hivemind. He was referred to as ‘The Glens’, because morning Glen was quite pleasant and reasonable, but late afternoon and evening Glen was often snarky and bad tempered. A shift change, I guessed. But I stand corrected, and glad to hear it.

    While we’re reminiscing, I looked at the list of people who paid for the Bolt Supporters ad, which was linked to yesterday. Lots of familiar names, including Robert Candelori, who was also a fierce regular and now seems to have moved on.

  164. poroti

    CTar1
    [Seeking asylum is South America is all the go these days.]
    Also a pretty popular option after May 8 1945 😀

  165. bemused

    Crispy@1631

    Back in 07 I thought Glen was a YL hivemind. He was referred to as ‘The Glens’, because morning Glen was quite pleasant and reasonable, but late afternoon and evening Glen was often snarky and bad tempered. A shift change, I guessed. But I stand corrected, and glad to hear it.

    While we’re reminiscing, I looked at the list of people who paid for the Bolt Supporters ad, which was linked to yesterday. Lots of familiar names, including Robert Candelori, who was also a fierce regular and now seems to have moved on.

    Candles escaped from dish washing at the chunder factory and popped in a few weeks ago. Didn’t last long.

  166. zoidlord

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 2m

    In any other state, Bleijie would be sacked. He not only made these laws, but made multiple amendments to attack us! http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/que

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    Now he’s forced to backflip because his childish fantasies ran into the very constitutional issues he was warned multiple time over

  167. dave

    [ Crispy
    Posted Wednesday, June 4, 2014 at 8:55 pm | PERMALINK

    Back in 07 I thought Glen was a YL hivemind. He was referred to as ‘The Glens’, because morning Glen was quite pleasant and reasonable, but late afternoon and evening Glen was often snarky and bad tempered. A shift change, I guessed. But I stand corrected, ]

    I think your intial comment was closer to the mark and didn’t need correction at all.

  168. absolutetwaddle

    poroti

    “As a journo once sais about Tony’s first political mentor , one B.A. Santamaria , his ideal world was an Agrarian feudal theocracy.”

    Probably a fair comment. I would be very interested to know Abbott’s views on the Spanish Civil War because of this.

  169. WarrenPeace

    Thank you for those who responded about Glen, I did not sare his views but I respected him.

  170. Diogenes

    Glen did more than most of us for asylum seekers and went to teach them English as a second language.

  171. confessions

    And file this one under ‘bullshit narratives’ as Hockey continues to struggle to frame his budget in any coherent fashion whatsoever.

    [The treasurer says the latest national accounts show the resilience of the economy, with growth at its strongest in about two years.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/24132304/economy-has-solid-growth-foundation-hockey/

    Yeah babe, that’s after you spent the best part of your first months in govt pitching a fit about budget emergencies and how we all had to suck up the pain.

    He is a dud as Treasurer. Come back Swannee, even the most strident of the Ruddists has forgiven you!

  172. bemused

    Hahahaha… the abc just aired it’s apology to Chris Kenny.

    Kenny was on 774 this afternoon raving about the indignity he suffered and why he deserved an apology.

    I phoned in and when the producer answered the phone I chuckled a bit and said I was just trying to pluck up the courage to ask on air when the dog would get an apology. This was greeted with a prolonged silence and WTTE “I don’t think we could put that to air…” 👿

  173. confessions

    Dio:

    Yeah, I thought that was the absolute bomb about Glen.

  174. BH

    Poroti

    Love it, thanks. Sometimes replicated here

  175. BK

    Nice work bemused. Pity you bottled it!

  176. imacca

    Interesting. Just watched Simkins story again on ABC. He says that “different ministers have different recollections over who played who”.

    So is he outright saying that the “senior liberals” who have put this out there are cabinet ministers??

    Interesting also that this is REALLY damaging for the Nats. Essentially they took the position that ALL their country constituents should pay higher fuel prices, rather than a few large miners and large agribusiness’s (using over $100k of diesel) losing a subsidy.

  177. zoidlord

    @Confessions/1639

    He’s on another planet.

    CommSec @CommSec · 4h

    Evening Written Report; Stocks stumble despite solid economic growth: http://www.comsec.com.au/Public/NewsAndResearch/AusStockMarketreports.aspx … #ausbiz

    And if the economy is growing, why do we need this nasty budget?

  178. bemused

    BK@1643

    Nice work bemused. Pity you bottled it!

    I don’t think they were taking calls on that and it was clear that one would not have made it to air. 😀

  179. dave

    [ Interesting also that this is REALLY damaging for the Nats.

    Essentially they took the position that ALL their country constituents should pay higher fuel prices, rather than a few large miners and large agribusiness’s (using over $100k of diesel) losing a subsidy. ]

    There is already a response somewhere from Truss – brushing it all away – apparently none of it ever happened.

    Won’t even stand up and be countered.

  180. BK

    bemused
    It’s always difficult telling a great joke with a straight face when you know the punch line.

  181. BK

    bemused
    It’s always difficult telling a great joke with a straight face when you know the punch line.

  182. zoidlord

    Apparently NBN Co has imported a HFC Expert from Canada:
    http://delimiter.com.au/2014/06/04/nbn-imports-canadian-hfc-cable-expert-cto/

    Wheels falling off Malcom’s Mess…?

  183. zoidlord

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    Countdown to freedom from this Bill being passed in Qld Parliament is ticking down to minutes

  184. confessions

    [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 9m
    The Nationals played for fools by Liberals during the pre budget rebate re diesel v fuel rebate according to ABC. Thoughts @Barnaby_Joyce ?]

  185. DisplayName

    zoid, there were never any wheels on it to begin with.

  186. BK

    So Abbott sees the Nats as a bunch of hayseed patsies.

  187. dave

    [ The treasurer says the latest national accounts show the resilience of the economy, with growth at its strongest in about two years. ]

    ABCTV News at midday in Sydney had the boss of the ABS explaining the data – he said the biggest factor was seasonal – that normally the mines in WA expect to be damaged/ closed/ flooded in the period reported on due to cyclones etc.

    This year that didn’t happen which helped muchly.

  188. Steve777

    Re Lefty e @1628: The great thing about the budget reception has been watching the LNP slowly confront how far right of the mainstream they are.

    Most of their sacred cows are electoral poison.

    By rights the Coalition should be unelectable. Outside of boardrooms, executive suites and maybe some economics departments, there are very few fans of free market ideology. And no one wants to lose benefits (and that includes the denizens of boardrooms and executive suites).

    The bulk of voters do not want to change the shape of Australian society. They believe in the Australian Fair Go. They want to make it work better; they want to pay less tax; but don’t want to cut any government program that benefits them personally. They might want to wind back the safety net for ‘bludgers’ but not fir nice, respectable people like themselves.

    So the Liberals had to hide their real intentions. They appealed to social conservatism. They appealed to racism. They trash-talked the economy. With their media allies (and a bit of help from Labor) they engendered an atmosphere of chaos and crisis. They said they could fix everything if they stopped the boats and stopped the carbon tax.

    They persuaded people to vote against their interests. Labor have to get the message out : voters – you were lied to. You can’t believe anything that this government promises.

  189. victoria

    What purpose does it serve for the Libs to brag about doing the Nats over. I dont get it.

  190. BH

    Glen was a good guy through the early Rudd years when most of us were gloating.

    He was a big Bilson fan so let’s hope he’s working in the office of Minister for Small Business

  191. dave

    [What purpose does it serve for the Libs to brag about doing the Nats over. I dont get it. ]

    Scores to settle – rivals to undermine.

    Some campers not happy – others boasting.

  192. zoidlord

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 45s

    Tick Tick Tick

  193. enjaybee

    Something for the activists to use at the right place and time and I apologize if it has been suggested before but a mate of mind suggests that the U.S. students chant used during the Vietnam War demonstrations i.e. Hey Hey LBJ how many kids did you kill today be changed to Hey Hey Tony A how may lies have you told today.

  194. Steve777

    When shops are permitted to be open on days of their choosing, then they can pitch a fit about wage structures being out of touch with how people live.

    I’d go further and say when you can see a medical specialist on Sunday morning, go to the bank or post office without having to duck out of work and when football finals are played on Tuesday.

  195. victoria

    dave

    What happened to the discipline?

  196. Dee

    Dave

    I didn’t say that Turnbull did not ideologically support the budget but that he didn’t want to be tainted by promoting/selling it.

  197. confessions

    [What purpose does it serve for the Libs to brag about doing the Nats over. I dont get it.]

    Love PvO getting in the faces of the Liberals. 🙂

  198. zoidlord

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    Jeff Seeney in Parliament at the moment going “Union – boooooo”. Put it on my resume mate

  199. Bushfire Bill

    Anyone noticed how, in the Murdoch rags and on the Liberal PArty side, suddenly they’re NOT trash-talking the economy anymore? They’re talking it up.

    Looks like the penny’s dropped, at last.

  200. victoria

    I just flicked over to paul murray on sky. Good grief. He together with his guests are raving on about the unions. What a right wing bunch of hacks.

  201. BH

    [And if the economy is growing, why do we need this nasty budget?]

    Zoidlord

    Tanya Plibersek had a great response to Speers this arvo. He asked about the excellent growth figures and she said, with huge smile on face, wtte that that they showed how accurate PEFO was and that Hockey has been talking rubbish.

  202. poroti

    Triple 😆 On uber shill Paul Murray’s program Planet Janet extolling the virtues of Nap Time and his “position of strength”

  203. victoria

    BB

    Of course the penny has dropped. Business and consumer confidence has had the biggest drop in years

  204. dave

    Vic – they are in office now and want the jobs that others have – at all sorts of levels – so dob in your rival/ enemy to the media.

    Yes, its counter productive, but hopefully much more to come.

    All so soon though ?

  205. rossmcg

    As someone who spent the last 22 years of my working life on night shift and in that time basically worked every Sunday except when i was on holiday I have

  206. zoidlord

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    Jeff Seeney is lecturing people about personal attack – and it’s such a farce, that even he’s laughing and can’t keep a straight face!

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    What a joke!

  207. victoria

    poroti

    I only lasted 30 seconds watching those partisan hacks

  208. poroti

    victoria

    A dead heat on the barf stakes.

  209. zoidlord

    @Bh/1669

    Labor needs to continue to use this method, Clive did a good job, now it’s Labor’s turn to do it.

    Simple information to the public.

  210. Raaraa

    Why do we need a HFC expert from Canada? Telstra and Optus has put in this system before, surely we have plenty of talent there.

  211. victoria

    poroti

    It is probably the worst show on the sky channel

  212. rossmcg

    Bloody ipad

    As someone who spent the last 22 years of my working life on night shift and in that time basically worked every Sunday except when i was on holiday I have to say that the penalty rates are small compensation for the way it messes up your family life.

    Call me old fashioned but there is something to be said for a family sitting down to a meal together more than once a week and sharing weekend activities like kids sport, the beach, picnics etc.

    I think that the move to deregulation of working hours and things like FIFO will have social impacts down the track, if it isn’t happening already.

    We have all these god bothering Tories going on about how important the traditionl family

  213. rossmcg

    Done it again

    We have all these god bothering Tories going on about how important the traditional family is at the same times they are undermining it.

  214. dave

    [I didn’t say that Turnbull did not ideologically support the budget but that he didn’t want to be tainted by promoting/selling it. ]

    Thats the first time the word *ideologically* has been used in our discussion.

    You said he was *forced* which I disagreed with.

    You still haven’t shown how he is unhappy with or doesn’t support the budget?

    Is there anything on the record of him saying such?

    How do you know?

  215. sprocket_

    The Royal Commission is quite brave opening up this case, the transcripts of which were posted on Twitter some time ago by Chris Murphy who has been pursuing the matter diligently. When they reappear, it will make shocking reading. This is a précis

    [Tony Abbott first met John Nestor at the St Patrick’s seminary in Manly in 1984, when they were training for the Catholic priesthood.
    They became friends and kept in touch several times a year even after their life journeys went in different directions.
    Abbott went into politics. Nestor completed his training and became a priest in the Wollongong diocese of NSW.
    When Nestor found himself before a Wollongong magistrate in 1997 charged over the alleged indecent assault of a teenage altar boy, Abbott came to his defence with a character reference.
    Asked to describe his friend, the then parliamentary secretary to the Employment Minister said: “An extremely upright and virtuous man. I guess one of the things that I like very much about John when I first met him was his maturity – intellectual, social, emotional. And he was, to that extent I guess, a beacon of humanity at the seminary.”
    Abbott added that Nestor was a man with “high expectations of himself and others”.
    “I can recall … being more than a little annoyed with him because he would want to bring me up to the mark, bring me back to the path of virtue from time to time and that didn’t always go over too well with me.”
    The priest admitted in court that he had slept, wearing boxer shorts and a singlet, on mattresses on a floor in his presbytery with the boy and his younger brother some time between June and September 1991.
    However he rejected the accusation he assaulted the boy.
    Nestor was convicted in the Wollongong Local Court on February 18, 1997, and sentenced to 16 months in jail, with the magistrate describing it as a “gross breach of trust”.]

    http://www.clan.org.au/news_details.php?newsID=1468

  216. victoria

    rossmcg

    There is nothing christian about these tories.

  217. victoria

    This was linked earlier by zoidlord. Is Labor going to enter into this discussion anytime soon?

    [More links are emerging between private ‘for profit’ colleges and the Liberal Party, amid growing concerns at Abbott Government reforms to higher education which will shift almost $1 billion of public funding into the private sector.

    New Matilda’s ongoing investigation into the tertiary sector shake-up has revealed that the owner of a private Sydney college which has been a major donor to the Liberal Party attended an overseas business forum with a NSW Liberal MP last year.]

    https://newmatilda.com/2014/06/04/private-profit-colleges-more-liberal-links-emerge

  218. Dee

    Rossmcg

    Groups have been formed, social workers, counselors employed to deal with family stress, bust ups etc…FIFO workers.

  219. rossmcg

    Victoria

    I agree, but many profess to be Christian, I only mention it to underline what a bunch of hypocrites they are

  220. victoria

    rossmcg

    Hypcrisy is definitely thy name

  221. rossmcg

    Dee

    The fact that support groups are needed underlines my point. It is not a normal way to live.

  222. mexicanbeemer

    Tonights ABC story about the Fuel excise just seems odd, just how off track has this government become in just a short period of time.

    This is the time a government pulls rank and focused on message yet just when it might have a circuit breaker thanks both to the Victorian crisis and the oversea trips we have the adults revealing the silly games which we the voters don’t need to know about unless you want us to view you with complete contempt.

  223. bemused

    victoria@1688

    rossmcg

    Hypcrisy is definitely thy name

    rossmg is not a hypocrite!!!

  224. WarrenPeace

    I disn’t think we were goinging to get one today but the Libs Vs Nats is another “Bite ya on the bum.” move. ( wish I could have thought of a better word than move, to many snorts of the old port and puffs on my cigars.

    Look forward to Tomorrow’s

  225. victoria

    Lateline last night on student loans

    http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2014/s4018217.htm

    Bemused

    Hypocrisy is thy name of the fiberals

  226. dave

    [I agree, but many profess to be Christian, I only mention it to underline what a bunch of hypocrites they are ]

    Its evil when the Church covers up for them and moves them on so that it can all start again etc.

  227. Dee

    Dave

    Who said Turnbull was unhappy with the budget?

    I said, imo, he was forced to get out and sell it.

    It was my opinion that he was trying to distance himself.

    In one of the links posted here, allegedly a couple of senior ministers questioned his motives for not being out there selling the budget.

    His absence from the budget sell has served him well in the polls.

  228. zoidlord

    @Victoria/1694

    Well there is an earlier answer to a question, regarding CPI:

    “JASON OM: Currently student debt increases in line with the Consumer Price Index, now around 2.5 per cent. That’s changing to the 10-year Government bond rate to reflect the true cost to Government. The bond rate is currently around 3.5 per cent but could rise to up to six per cent.”

  229. zoidlord

    Is this new polling from Possum/Reachtel?

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 12m

    Regardless of who you would vote for, do you believe the Newman gov has demonstrated it deserves to be re-elected pic.twitter.com/4Rd3t5j4Xs

  230. dave

    Dee

    [ I said, imo, he was forced to get out and sell it.

    It was my opinion that he was trying to distance himself.]

    No. This is the first time your have said, *imo* – here is the original –

    [Turnbull has been forced to back the budget sewerage. ]

    So fine, thats your opinion – I disagree with that for the reasons already stated.

  231. silmaj

    1698
    That sounds like an old poll that was done after something controversial was done months back.

  232. Wakefield

    Good pro-health anti budget rally in Adelaide today at lunchtime. Several speakers including health unions, AMA vice president, Premier, Health Minister.

    Best placard was “Budget Smuggler”

  233. victoria

    Wakefield

    There was a similar rally in melbourne last week

  234. victoria

    [Jonathan Swan
    My prediction is that @TurnbullMalcolm will not be doing Alan Jones tomorrow morning. Today’s interview was a terrible idea.]

  235. Dee

    Before I head off, an email churn from Turnbull

    [The mark of a great society is the way it treats the neediest and most vulnerable.

    On June 19, I will be joining St Vinnies in their annual CEO sleepout – business and political leaders used to warm beds will be sleeping outdoors on a chilly winter night to raise money for the homeless.]

  236. guytaur

    Lateline introduction

    What Crisis. Guest to talk Victorian Politics Jeff Kennet

  237. Sir sustainable future

    [Of course the penny has dropped. Business and consumer confidence has had the biggest drop in years]

    and yet, the Oz today reports.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/australian-economic-growth-stronger-than-expected/story-e6frg926-1226942710838

    no mention of the crash in consumer and business confidence. no doubt when they do report it, the Oz will attribute it to ‘uncertainty about the budget passing’ and blame labor, greens and the cross benches. seriously – this is how they’ll spin in.

  238. mexicanbeemer

    That CEO sleep out is a shame, I use to think it was legit but having met someone who helps to organise it apparently they all go home at around 10pm, if true the event should be seen for the shame it is.

  239. mexicanbeemer

    shame = sham

  240. guytaur

    Labor looks good on Lateline

  241. Sir sustainable future

    [Before I head off, an email churn from Turnbull

    The mark of a great society is the way it treats the neediest and most vulnerable.

    On June 19, I will be joining St Vinnies in their annual CEO sleepout – business and political leaders used to warm beds will be sleeping outdoors on a chilly winter night to raise money for the homeless.]

    I received this to – replied with an email drawing his attention to his party’s treatment of refugees and the proposed budget’s impact on the neediest and most vulnerable. challenged him to do it without a PR crew.

  242. dave

    Pretty heavy rain coming down in Sydney atm.

  243. John Reidy

    Re the fuel excise story about the Libs and Nats, remember Tuckey and co going on 4corners to boast about the Peacock-Howard overthrow ( I think Peacock took down Howard )
    I don’t doubt the story at all.

  244. rossmcg

    The AFL’s new hall of farmers are Anthony Koutiufides, the late Ern Henfry, Brad Johnson, Warren Tredrea, Andrew McLeod and RICHO!

    Can’t argue with any of them

  245. Sir sustainable future

    the other thing of interest with the turnbull PR emails. After months of inaction, I have received three in the last week. It’s ON!

  246. guytaur

    Kennett raving means Labor doing well

  247. Wakefield

    William – can you check why your first Bludgertrack Table shows the LNP vote dropping 8.8% from “2013” but the 2pp only droppoing 8.5%. Not possible?

  248. Socrates

    Evening all. Hearing of the death of Doc Neeson today made me feel a little older and quite a bit sadder. I still remember hearing them live in my youth – they were great live, and Neeson could really belt out songs in a long show – and of course the crowd singing back. They were fun. RIP Doc, I will miss you.

  249. roger bottomley

    Well said Socrates. The Angels were one of the first live bands I saw as an 18 year old at Basser Ball at NSW Uni.

  250. sohar

    Tony, get back here quick, Malcolm’s making his move. The waves aren’t fantastic on Normandy beaches, anyway.

  251. guytaur

    “@kirstenaiken: Coming up next on @ABCNews24, the full joint statement by Australian PM @TonyAbbottMHR and Indonesian President @SBYudhoyono. 2300 AEST.”

  252. Socrates

    The Cunneen inquiry into a cover up of a paedophile catholic priest in Newcastle diocese has made clear findings of wrongdoing by senior church officials.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-04/hunter-valley-catholic-church-under-fire/5501038

    Now the acid question: will a NSW Liberal attorney general permit a senior catholic clergyman to stand trial for their crimes? Will Tony Abbott have any say in the matter? Or will Brad Hazzard be guilty of fostering moral hazard, by doing nothing? Will Liberals be hard on crimes committed by powerful friends?

    As founder of Liberalism Edmund Burke would say, “all that is necessary for the forces of evil to triumph in the world are for men of good will to do nothing”.

  253. William Bowe

    I don’t quite follow you there, Wakefield.

  254. imacca

    [ no mention of the crash in consumer and business confidence. no doubt when they do report it, the Oz will attribute it to ‘uncertainty about the budget passing’ and blame labor, greens and the cross benches. seriously – this is how they’ll spin in. ]

    I think you are absolutely correct. Its about the only way to rescue this Govt’s standing at the moment. News Ltd will want to set the stage for the Govt to claim an over-riding need for all the Budget measures to be passed in both houses. Suits their agenda and provides good theater.

  255. Socrates

    Roger

    Yes I first saw them when I was still in high school – one of the first “big” bands I ever saw. The Angels were great fun – and no big egos, just good at what they did. Doc really made them.

  256. deflationite

    Cast your minds back to when Julia Gillard would go overseas.

    It was like clockwork.

    While the cat is away the mice will play.

    Same thing is happening with the conservatives.

  257. guytaur

    Hmmmm Is this usual diplomatic speak from Indonesian President or has Abbott promised to stop turning boats back?

  258. Wakefield

    William – the top rhs table shows in the blue and pink line a 8.5% LNP to ALP shift since 2013. But the top line shows a 8.8% drop for LNP. 2PP change must be higher than the LNP alone change?

  259. William Bowe

    Edmund Burke is invariably put in the conservative box these days, rightly or wrongly.

  260. deblonay

    Re Kennet on ABC
    ______________
    For those who don’t remember Vic before 1999…this was typical Kennett..A.Classic Kennett appearance

    He denies what is know to be true.talks down his opponent and ignores all evidence
    It worked for him in his earlier term,but it all came apart in that famous election in 1999 when he lost,most unexpectadly by a single seat ..what a night to remember!

    Even now he seems to speak of it as if it was a moment of inaanity by the Vic voters
    In the end Kennett’s Torrent of Bulshi style fails as his listeners finally wake up…and those mwho remember the 90ies still flinch when they hear him

    Tonight I watched the ABC and made a cup of coffee to see a real Kennet performace,but muy wife who has a smaller tolerance than me, went to bed,saying it was all to much to watch him…even now many can’t watch …though he is nowlike some old tin-pot dictator in exile

    so deep is the loathing even now in Victoria

  261. William Bowe

    [2PP change must be higher than the LNP alone change?]

    No, if the Labor vote is up by less than the Coalition vote is down, it follows that some of the primary vote the Coalition loses will come back to it on preferences.

  262. Socrates

    Regarding the economic figures, they have only improved in the way Abbott’s poll numbers “improved” by a point. It is a dead cat bounce, after some very anemic months. Whether good or bad, you cannot judge economic trends off a single figure. The average growth over the past six to twelve months is still well below the long term average rate. That is why so many school leavers, and even some uni leavers, still have no job.

  263. bemused

    William Bowe@1728

    Edmund Burke is invariably put in the conservative box these days, rightly or wrongly.

    Burke was a conservative and regarded as such when I studied politics in the 1970s.

    But of course the Libs are not conservatives so his positions bear no relationship to theirs.

  264. Socrates

    William 1728

    Agreed, that is why I quoted him. Will a conservative AG do as Burke would recommend? We have still never seen an Australian Bishop or cardinal charged with perverting the course of justice or other appropriate offense for covering up and facilitating child abuse. It has now happened in several other countries, even Ireland. (The RC smuggled the suspect out to the Vatican, claiming diplomatic immunity!)
    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/eamonn-mccann/why-the-vaticans-diplomatic-immunity-days-are-numbered-28557346.html

    They will keep committing the crime, as long as they think they will keep getting away with it.

  265. rossmcg

    Deblonay

    I have heard Andrew Denton tell the story of when he had Kennet on his show.

    Apparently in the chat beforehand Kennet was in great form. Witty, charming and Denton was full of hope for what was to follow.

    Then,he recalled, Kennet walked on stage for the interview and turned into Jeff Kennet.

    And having seen the show,I knew exactly what Denton meant.

  266. guytaur

    @AlanKohler: The dollar during tonight’s ABC news. Massive volatility as my gaffe flashed on traders’ screens http://t.co/nGc0Giiztr

  267. Atticus

    Steve777,

    [I’d go further and say when you can see a medical specialist on Sunday morning, go to the bank or post office without having to duck out of work and when football finals are played on Tuesday.]

    Spot on. Maybe it’s different in the big cities, but here in the Illawarra you’ll never see a Howard Battler giving up his family’s Sunday or Official Holiday to work on a construction site of any type, residential or commercial or government.

    Night all.

  268. Wakefield

    William 1730 – agreed – ignore query!

  269. zoidlord

    How much grovelling has Tony Abbott needed to do?

    Tony Abbott ‏@TonyAbbottMHR 8m

    Just finished dinner with @SBYudhoyono – He’s been a great President and a great friend to Australia pic.twitter.com/YRxXgMULtH

  270. Socrates

    Sorry William I just realised your point, I should have said conservative in reference to Burke, hence the link to conservative AG Hazard. Getting tired. Night all.

  271. Kevin Bonham

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/optional-senate-preferencing-not.html

    New piece about optional Senate preferencing; demolishes Mackerras piece in the Oz from last week in probably far more gory detail than it’s worth. 🙂

    I did some stuff here on preference flows from micros to big parties cf other micros in House of Reps seats that may be of some interest. Basically there do not seem to be any micro parties whose voters will by choice very strongly preference only other micros. There are tendencies towards this in some cases like the Australian Christians, but generally a micro voter is not less likely to preference ALP/Lib/Green than to preference another micro.

  272. DisplayName

    Thanks Kevin.

  273. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Estimates has revealed 5000 people studying to get back into work will lose JET child care assistance because of Abbott’s budget cuts— Kate Ellis (@KateEllisMP) June 4, 2014

  274. MagicPudding

    Yet another Abbott joke thread trending top on Twitter:
    #WhatAbbottWillSayToObama

  275. Tom the first and best

    1745

    Will he quote Brandis on bigot`s?

  276. Darn

    William and/or Kevin B

    I have a recollection of reading somewhere that it is not unusual or significant to find an incumbent PM ahead on the PPM by a few points even when the 2PP is showing his/her government well behind and in serious trouble. (I think this may have been the case with Julia Gillard at times during 2013).

    If that recollection is right, does it then follow that the ten percent PPM lead Shorten now has over Abbott makes the 2PP lead Labor currently has over the coalition even more significant.

  277. Kevin Bonham

    Darn@1747

    William and/or Kevin B

    I have a recollection of reading somewhere that it is not unusual or significant to find an incumbent PM ahead on the PPM by a few points even when the 2PP is showing his/her government well behind and in serious trouble. (I think this may have been the case with Julia Gillard at times during 2013).

    If that recollection is right, does it then follow that the ten percent PPM lead Shorten now has over Abbott makes the 2PP lead Labor currently has over the coalition even more significant.

    For a ten percent PPM lead to the Opposition the expected Opposition 2PP is a shade under 55. So two consecutive Newspolls with 55 and 54 and that PPM isn’t unusual. But there is enough variation that yes you can easily get closer PPM figures with large Opposition 2PP leads.

  278. Tom the first and best

    1749

    Bigot`s rights of course.

  279. Kevin Bonham

    While Gillard was PM and Abbott Opposition Leader, if Abbott had a PPM lead of 10 points then the predicted 2PP would be 57.7. Abbott underperformed on PPM because he was such an unpopular Opposition Leader. There was also a similar dynamic with Rudd vs Howard but in that case it was because Howard’s stocks were much higher than his party’s.

  280. Tom the first and best

    The apostrophes are conspiring against me tonight.

  281. deblonay

    The Shaw Case and a 1901 case
    _________
    The only expulsion of a MLA in Victorian history occurred in 1901 when Ted Findley,the first Labor MLA for Melbourne(previously seen as a plum seat for the CBD business community ,was expelled from parliament only a year after his election in 1900

    Findley a pioneer of the Victorian Labor Movement was Pres. of the Trades Hall ,and head of the Printers Union and a Editor of a Labor weekly journal “The Tocsin”

    In 1901 he reprinted an articled from an Irish Magasine”The Irish People” which dealt with the life of King Ed 7th

    The Vic Premier Peacock said the article was a criminal libel of the King and the House expelled Findley for criminal libel
    He contested the resulting by-election but failed to regain his seat

    He did however win a Labor senate seat from Victoria in 1904 and went on to a long career in the Senate, and was a Minister in the Fisher Labor government after 1910

  282. Fulvio Sammut

    Did you know him? 🙂

  283. Otiose

    Nett_News++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #abbott, #SBY Diplomatic Dither, by @rowe_david © http://bit.ly/UbVi3W

  284. caf

    Dee @ 1591:

    [Turnbull has been forced to back the budget sewerage.]

    “Sewerage” is the pipes, “sewage” is the stuff that flows through them.

  285. caf

    dave @ 1600:

    [I hope someone is checking they aren’t also dropping submarine detection accoustic stuff for future use.]

    It’s international waters, even if they are we don’t have any standing to tell them to knock it off.

  286. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    sTUpid sky reporters. I have the Clavell siege on live on Sky. He is not answering the phone and the police detective in charge did a presser saying he knew Clavell was watching TV. All four women have been let go so he is in there (maybe) alone. The police officer is doing and saying all the right things, you can hear it in the careful way he is using his words. Calling Clavell by his first name, saying how he has done the right thing and that the four ladies are safe, and how he wants to talk to him and find a way to resolve the situation so Rodney is safe etc etc

    So what does dickhead sky reporter ask the police officer in charge?
    “Have you thought about storming the building?”
    FigMD, how figgin dumb can one person be and still manage to breathe?